Nov 20, 2011

NFL Week 11: Binion's

It's getting to that point in the NFL season where I feel like the picking becomes routine and less exciting. Over the first few weeks, the process to put together the picks is pure excitement. Another week! There's only 17 of them! Weeks 6-9 or so become an adrenaline rush, as we think we know some things about teams that Vegas (and others) haven't caught up on.

But now, the rush is gone, the reviews feel like work, and there's not a ton of effort that goes into these picks. It doesn't help that I spent all last week in India, where I didn't have a solid bowel movement for 5 days and we got delayed getting to the plant one day because a oil truck hit a motorcycle and killed two people. There's only one two-lane road to the manufacturing area near Bhopal - and that's an adventourous ride in itself; but then you have to avoid the cows, boars, and elephants on the road.

So there's not a lot of analysis in this week's review. Kind of like going downtown during our Vegas trip. Someone always suggests we do it one of the days - it's usually the third day, where tiredness creeps in. The intent to go downtown is -what? It's not the excitement of gambling; it's not the high stakes - what is it? I find myself not caring too much one way or another when I gamble downtown. So I lose $300 playing craps....that's fine for 4 hours of entertainment at Binions where the players are worse than in central Indiana, and the constant ringing of the drink "clicker" will be in your ears for days. The smoke will too.

It's fun, it's gambling, yes.....but I'm not a big fan of the downtown experience.

Let's get back to fun in the NFL this week. Maybe if we don't botch a snap on a 22 yard field goal to take the lead with 2:00 to go, some of the fun will come back.

Dal 23, Was 10. How, again, will Washington score? (ed- isn't it time for a Romo Pick 6? I think so. )

Min 27, Oak 17. Let's remind ourselves - Oakland is not good; they lost to Denver and Kansas City the two weeks prior. So they beat an imploding Chargers team. And Minnesota ran into a buzzsaw.

Buf 23, Mia 20. Miami's wins recently are against the Skins and the Chiefs. I'm not going to believe in them until they actually beat someone decent.

GB 31, TB 21. Something tells me the Bucs will keep it close.

Det 27, Car 20. You couldn't have two worse showings last week than those from these two teams.

Bal 27, Cin 24. I think the Bengals will stay in this, as the Bal defense is just not good enough to shut down teams like they used to. But I can't see the Ravens losing here.

SF 26, Az 17. The magical ride for the 49ers continues....

StL 23, Sea 10. The Seahawks are a different team away from home. And Jackson is a better runner at home.

SD 31, Chi 24. A purely irrational pick. Cutler can't have 3 great games in a row, can he?

Atl 30, Ten 20. This is the Falcons' season here. They will get up early and pile it on.

Phi 27, NYG 24. The Giants are due for an illogical loss right about now. And the Eagles will find something to pull this out (do I say that every week???)

NE 31, KC 14. Will anyone outside of Boston watch this game?

Best bets: 15 of them. Last week: 10-8-1; overall: 86-64-7
Dal -7
Dal/Was under 41.5
Min -1.5
Buf +3
TB +14
Cin +7
Cin/Bal over 40.5
StL -3
Sea/StL under 39.5
SD +3.5
SD/Chi over 45
Atl -6.5
Ten/Atl over 44
Phi +5.5
Phi/NYG over 45

We will switch it up this week; here are the 5 Supercontest picks.
By the way, I need to calculate the odds of me going 10-8-1......and 5 of the 8 losses were the 5 entries for the Supercontest.....

Min +1
Buf +2
Atl -6
StL -2
SD +3.5

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