NFL Week 16: Card Sharks

Aces are high
Deuces are low
Call it right
And win the Dough!
Ooooooooooon.......Card Sharks!

Why hasn't this game made a comeback? It's a game show so good, they made it twice in the 1980s - Card Sharks! What a great game. It's a good mix of Family Feud, mathematics, strategy and gambling all rolled into one. And the bonus round is easy enough to recreate with your 5-year old kid!

The main game is simple - there are five cards for each player laid out end to end. To win the game, you have to get to the end of the row successfully, calling each card "higher" or "lower" than the previous one. But before you can guess "higher" or "lower", you have to get control of the cards - and that is done with a survey question.

The survey questions are asked of 100 people that are of the same "type" - married men, Playboy bunnies, priests, etc.  - and it's a general form of "Have you ever.....". For example, a survey was done of 100 priests  and they were asked  - have you ever placed a bet at a race track?
The first contestant makes a guess at how many of those 100 priests said yes; the second contestant then predicted if the real answer was higher or lower than the guess. The answer is revealed; if the second contestant is right, he gets control; if not, the first contestant gets control.

Once they get control of the board, they can choose to change their "base card" - starting card - and then off they go with the guesses. They can stop and "freeze" at any time, and then the turn ends and a new survey question is asked. If they get a guess wrong, control goes to the other opponent. A player wins a game when they get through all 5 cards successfully; 2 out of 3 games are needed to win the match and go to the bonus round.

The strategy here is trying to figure out the percentages and when to change base cards. Aces are high, 2s are low, so the "middle" card is an 8. If your base card is 8 - or 7 or 9 - you definitely want to change. But what about a 6? Jack? 5? Tough choices!

The bonus game is where the great excitement for the game is - it's called the "Money Cards". It's a board with three rows - three spots on the bottom 2 rows and a single spot at the top. You start with $200 and have to risk at least $50 on each spot, guessing higher or lower. You can bet it all at any time, if you want. You continue for the three cards in the first row - and, if you survive, you get a $200 bonus to start the 2nd row and continue on. At the top, for the "big bet", you must bet at least half of your "pot". You can change cards at any time at the beginning of each row.

This is where a young Eric first learned of compounding interest! You start with $200 and can end up with $28,800 by doubling it each time! Easy as pie! I re-created this game with Layup as kids and now are teaching the boys how to play. Of course, Warren is usually the winner.

Cards Sharks appeared twice on TV, once from 1978-82 with our good friend Jim Perry. He was the perfect host for this - asked the survey questions with the right tone, and was able to create the right level of drama with the Money Cards. Card Sharks came back in 1986 with Bob Eubanks - the new show had a few more bells and whistles (cars, etc.) that seemed contrived - and personally, I just wasn't a fan of Eubanks hosting this version. Nothing could replace Jim Perry.

This show has a place in our Vegas history - in our 2006 trip, we found that the MGM casino has a table game based on Card Sharks. The rules are here (from Wizard of Odds)....our friend Don cashed out with a black chip (described here from some primitive Vegas diaries from 2006!).

The matron saint of our Vegas trip - or should I say "Holy Godmother" - is Norma Brown. Click this link for 3 minutes of your time that is well worth it. 

And - if your luck is going bad, cheer up - you could be this poor soul. When I first found this video, I wondered what would have happened if Layup was the contestant here.

What more to say about the Browns? I like what I see from Johnny right now....he is starting to be more comfortable in the pocket and yet scramble when needed...the team is starting, slowly, to respond to him (don't worry about the 4,562 drops in the Seattle game). He's like a "6" in Card Sharks. Do we keep the card and guess "higher"? Or change it? I think, at this point, we keep him and gamble. I've seen enough to give him 2016.....

On to the games:

Car 24, Atl 17. I don't see how a de-motivated Falcons team stands in the way.

Buf 27, Dal 10. Talking about motivation - Dallas is done for the year and I can't see them amping up for this game. Kellen Moore on the road against the Bills, coming home after 2 road games?

SF 23, Det 20. Monday night hangover, and I think SF's defense is playing better.

Ind 20, Mia 13. Again, the key here is to find teams that have packed it in. Have you watched Miami against the Giants and then at the Chargers? They are done.

NYJ 20, NE 17. Maybe this is a hopeful guess, but since the first game went over, I think this one will stay under the total - and an "under" game is good for the Jets.

TB 30, Chi 17. A .500 team will prove their worth against a Chicago team that has lost 3 in a row to fade out of contention.

Ten 22, Hou 20. I can bet against Brandon Weeden - on the road - and get points, too??

Pit 31, Bal 20. Almost an impossible game to handicap. What is the motivation for Baltimore? I know it's a rivalry, but they have nothing! And yet, I hesitate to lay the 10 points.

Jax 27, NO 17. Why did I fall for the Saints last week? Their defense is not getting better this year...I know Brees is starting, but I think the wrong team is favored.

Az 30, GB 20. Still thinking Green Bay is a fraud here. They were gifted 14 points last week.

Sea 27, StL 13. The Rams don't have the weapons to take advantage of the Seahawks weakness. I know the Rams lines are good, but in Seattle? The Hawks will find a way to get ahead early.

Min 27, NYG 16. Just the perfect opponent forthe Vikes - the Vikes are a methodical, disciplined team - and their opponent is a undisciplined, erratic team out of the playoffs with their one weapon suspended.

Cin 19, Den 16. I think the Bengals will find a way to win this close game Monday in a classic.

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 8-5-1; overall: 109-90-7
Car/Atl under 47
Buf -6.5
SF +9.5
Ind +2.5
Ind/Mia under 44
NYJ +3
NE/NYJ under 45
TB -3.5
Ten +4
Jax +2.5
Jax/NO under 52
Az -4.5
Min -7
Cin +3

Supercontest: last week: 3-2; overall: 36-38-1
Buf -6.5
SF +9.5
Ind +1.5
Ten +4
Cin +3.5

NFL Week 15: Name that Tune

From Hollywood, it's the New $100,000 Name that Tune! 

Now here's an oldie that made a revival in the 80s for a few years - the good old classic Name that Tune! I have to say - I am surprised this hasn't made its way back into the airwaves again. It's a simple concept that can be easily updated for today's songs. (we'll talk more about this later). 

Name that Tune has been around since the 1950s, but we will focus on the 1984-85 syndicated version. The game is simple - all the games, and the bonus round, focuses on naming a song based on instrumental notes played by a live orchestra.  It starts very much like Price is Right - there is a contestants "box" where 2 contestants are called out randomly from the box.* They are shocked and surprised to get on stage to play!

(* - were they really random? Did they really not know they would be picked? )

Three "games were played for points, and the contestant with the most points goes to the bonus round - the Golden Medley. This is probably the only game where one of the main games is more popular than the bonus round. 

The first game was "Melody Roulette"; the host would spin the wheel for a dollar value and the contestants would play a best-of-5 naming random tunes. The second game was a category round - "Tune Topics"; the 1980s ENIAC computer would randomly pick 1 of 5 topics for songs in that segment, all connected by a common word or topic. 

The final game - where all the drama took place - is the game that most people associated with Name that Tune. Bid a Note! The host would give a short clue description for a song, and then the contestants would "auction" off a chance to guess at the tune. 

"Wiz, I can name that tune in 6 notes"....

"Layup, I can name it in 5"

Whenever someone was stuck, they would challenge the other to "name that tune". 

A piano would play the required notes - and the "winner" of the auction needed to name the tune; if he could, great! If not, the point went to the other team. 

I guess this was the first time I actually saw bluffing work in action. Some old lady would challenge a big guy to the tune and force him to name it in fewer notes; 80% of the time he couldn't do it. 

The bonus round was the Golden Medley. 30 seconds was put on the clock in the form of a giant roulette wheel and would count down; the contestant would need to name 7 songs in those 30 seconds to win. They could pass if needed and come back to it. Winners of the Golden Medley would come back to play in the monthly tournament for $100,000.

The host of this version was Jim Lange - we've seen him before as the Chance of a Lifetime host and the old Dating Game host. Maybe Wink Martindale would have been a better choice with his Hollywood connections and Wink's overall smarminess. Jim seems forced and formal for a show like this. 

The hidden star of this show was the orchestra! Yes, a live orchestra was on stage playing all the songs on the show. Imagine the logistics of this! 25+ songs on the music stand, and they have to rifle through each one during the show in the correct order. And, of course, in the Golden Medley, they'd have to keep the passed songs separately and come back to it in the right order. Madness!

I really wanted to like this show in the 80s - I listened to B104 all the time ("all the hits, all the time"), but of course, the songs played in this show were from the 50s and 60s. Nothing I knew at all - I'm sure "The Girl from Ipanema" came up once every 2 shows. As a 12 year old, I tired of this show quickly. 

This would be a great show to bring back, right? We could have Ryan Seacrest host; we could have Beck lead the orchestra in the back and play songs from 1990 on. 25 years of "new" songs for this show! This has to work, right? Maybe a better host would be Eminem? Mark Mcgrath? MC Hammer? 

I feel like I am in the Golden Medley for the Browns Quarterback audition. 3 weeks left and the clock is ticking to see if we have a quarterback for 2016. Is it Johnny? Can he look solid in the final 3 weeks - against Seattle, Kansas City and Pittsburgh? Can he at least be decent in these losses, or will he "pass" and take a 0 for these games? I like him and want him to do well - just afraid that he is not set up for success here in weeks 15-17. 

On to the games:

Bal 27, KC 20. I have too much respect for Harbaugh as a coach. 

Hou 27, Ind 17. Wow, the Colts have fallen apart. Their defense has looked bad for 2 weeks now, and Hasselbeck has gotten worse. Houston will bounce back from the Pats game. 

Atl 26, Jax 24. This game should be a layup for the Jaguars - which means they will mess it up. 

Min 23, Chi 17. Two teams I can't trust. How do you not win that game at home last week, Chicago? 

NE 30, Ten 17. I think Mariota will be able to score some against the Pats; the question, as usual, is how motivated the Pats will be to run up the score. This will be close to the number. 

Car 34, NYG 27. Not impressed with the Giants defense; should be an up and down game. 

Was 20, Buf 17. Who knows what team will show up here on both sides! Are we sure we can trust Washington - but they are at home! The Cousins mistake will come - but so will the 12 Bills penalties. 

Oak 27, GB 20. I'm not ready to say the packers offense is back after wearing down Dallas last week. They had the ball for 40+ minutes; eventually they were going to get in the end zone. 

Pit 27, Den 24. Let's not crown the Steelers yet, Their defense still is not that tested (oooh, you beat the Colts and the Bengals without Dalton). I expect a shootout. 

SD 30, Mia 17. The final game in San Diego will end with a win. Last games in a city have a way of rallying the team (see Cleveland, 1995)

Cin 27, SF 13. After a week of practice, I have confidence in McCarron. 

Az 20, Phi 17. Not sure of the motivation of the Cardinals or the Eagles' offense. 

NO 31, Det 20.  Just think the Lions are done with the season and are primed to lose big in New Orleans in prime time. 

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 8-6; overall: 101-86-6

Bal +6.5

KC/Bal over 41

Hou +2

Atl +3

Car/NYG over 48

Was +2.5

Buf/Was under 44

Oak +3

Den +6

Den/Pit over 45

SD -1.5

Cin -5.5

Az/Phi under 51.5

NO -3

Supercontest: in a big rut. Last week: 2-3. Overall: 33-36-1

Bal +7.5

Atl +3

SD -2

Cin -4.5

NO -3

NFL Week 14: Let's Make a Deal

It's time for the All New Let's Make a Deal, starring TV's big dealer, Monty Hall!


It's time to review one of the classics - Let's Make a Deal! I have a lot of fondness for this show - especially the 1980s version with Monty Hall - which I think everyone in our age group thinks of when someone refers to the show.

Who doesn't know the basics here? There are a bunch of contestants in the studio audience (36 of them, we learned) that Monty randomly chooses to participate in small games and deals. For instance: here is a small stack of bills - the top and bottom bills are $1 bills. There could be anything else in between. Would you like to keep your stack, or trade it in for door #1?

That's an example of a simple deal. Other deals become more complex; it could be a game between two contestants (such as a grocery pricing game, or trivia, etc.) - and Monty would take turns offering the "deals" between the two contestants - and zero, one, or both of them could take the offer.

What's the risk? Of course, sometimes the "deal" offered was a ZONK. The "prize" behind a curtain could be a big wheel....or a llama...or sheep.....or a stick and some sheets that can be considered luggage. This usually is chosen after the contestant turns down $2000 in cash or something.

At the end of the game, the two highest winners from the day are chosen to play in the "Super Deal" for a large prize package (usually around $8-10,000, in the 1980s!). Sometimes contestants will refuse to play and keep their prize, so Monty goes down the list of the winners to find 2 people that will play. They each take a curtain (one out of 3) to trade in their winnings for a curtain; hopefully one of them will pick the big deal....

Simple, right? Of course. But let me digress on so many notes/tangents on this show:

1. What's the deal with the costumes? All of the contestants are wearing wacko costumes on the "trading floor". How did that start? This show started in the 1960s, and back then, everyone wore formal wear as a contestant (suits and dresses). One show, a lady brought in a sign for Monty, asking him to pick her; he noticed the sign and did pick her! Soon after, another lady wore a fancy hat in order to be noticed; she was and was picked! It snowballed from here.

2. One of the more famous modern statistical problems shared in college classes - and no, I am not joking - is the Monty Hall problem. I remember hearing about this in my undergrad statistics classes in college. The problem is similar to the End game; you have 3 curtains, 1 curtain has a car, 2 others are zonks. You pick a curtain (say, curtain #1). Monty shows you curtain #2 - and it is a zonk.

The question is - should you trade curtains if offered (and change to curtain #3)?

The answer is yes - Marilyn Vos Savant (from the Weekly "Parade" magazine) answered this in 1990 and was immediately (and incorrectly!) berated by professors. I won't go into the solution here, but it is intuitive if you think about it a while. Here's the explanation for more details:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

3. While the closing credits roll, Monty goes around the contestants for mini deals - "quickies" - asking random contestants for household items. "Do you have a fork? I'll give you $50 for a fork". Or a passport. Or a Canadian coin. I think half of the people had a huge hand bag full of junk just for this eventuality.

4. One of my high school memories (or maybe it was middle school - it was 1985) was having a sub for a class; we were supposed to watch a movie but we couldn't get the VCR to work. We then convinced her to turn the TV to Channel 11 to watch "Let's Make a Deal". It was educational!
After about 5 minutes, the sub - Mrs. Grauer, I think - was puzzled. Why are they in costumes? What's going on? I don't think Mrs. Grauer was a big fan of game shows.

5. The show introduced door #4 in the 80s - where a big wheel came out to "randomly" select a contestant to spin a wheel for cash and prizes. A random number generator picked a number from 1 to 36 to pick a contestant to play. I think they had to do this since it seemed that the contestants picked for the main game play were never random.

I haven't watched the revival of Let's Make a Deal with Wayne Grady - so I can't comment on how well the new show matches up with the classics. However, in my mind, Monty Hall will
always be Mr. Let's Make a Deal. The perfect host for this show.

Anyway - we are getting to the point here where we have to play Lets Make a Deal with Johnny. We've got 4 games to determine whether we stay with door #1 - Johnny - or take Door #2 - Jared Goff? Colin Kaepernick? I feel like we will have llamas behind any door we choose.

On to the games:

Car 23, Atl 13. Yes, the Falcons are falling apart, but I don't know if the Panthers have the motivation to crush them.

Chi 27, Was 17. Completely shocked at how flat the Skins were last week. Fox will dial up the same defense for Washington.

Cin 26, Pit 23. Should be a great game; I have Big Ben going for me in the playoffs so I need a great game here.

Ind 27, Jax 24.  The Jags D is horrendous; Indy can pass and take advantage of it. Hasselbeck will recoup and give the Colts the win.

KC 27, SD 23. San Diego is better on teh road now rather than at home to get away from the distractions.

NYJ 26, Ten 13. Not sure I see how Tennessee will score 14+ points vs. this defense, as they are so one-dimensional.

Buf 24, Phi 20. 21 points by the Eagles last week were on returns. I'm not ready to say they are back.

StL 20, Det 13. One last good effort by the Rams. No logic behind this pick.

TB 30, NO 17. The Saints played their Super Bowl last week, and the Bucs are making a charge to theplayoffs - not a perfect team, but getting better.

Sea 27, Bal 10. Jimmy Clausen again?

Den 24, Oak 20. Not sure if Denver can score enough to cover this spread.

GB 22, Dal 20. Maybe this is too high of a score prediction. How does each team score points here?

NE 24, Hou 21. Facinating game. I think Belicheck's history with Hoyer will make the difference here.

NYG 27, Mia 16. The Dolphins are crap. Time for me to get another Monday night game wrong.

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 9-7; overall: 93-80-6
Atl/Car under 46.5
Chi -3.5
Ind +1.5
Ind/Jax over 46
SD +10.5
KC/SD over 44
NYJ -7
Ten/NYJ under 43
Buf +1
StL +3.5
Det/StL under 41
TB -4.5
Dal +6.5
NYG +2

Supercontest: Last week: 2-3; overall: 31-33-1
Chi -3
TB -4
Ind pk
Sea -6.5 (stale line)
NYG -1

NFL Week 13: High Rollers

And now a game of high stakes, where every decision is a gamble, and every move could be your last. Hiiiiiiiigh Rollers!

We are going way back into the memory bank for this one - High Rollers! Dice, numbers, strategy, prizes, cheesy graphics, K-cars....how could you make a game more perfect for me?

The game was based on the old favorite board game "Shut the Box". In Shut the Box, there were numbers 1-9 set up and you rolled dice; you knocked off the numbers 1-9 based on your roll... If you could knock all the numbers out, you win! We bought a cheap Shut the Box set in Bangkok for like $3....they are all over the markets in Asia , for whatever reason.  This game sounds easy, but in practice, this is a lot harder than it looks!

The main game for High Rollers acts the same way. There are 3 columns of 3 numbers each - randomly distributed from 1-9 - and a toss up trivia question is asked to see who gains control. The winning contestant can either roll or pass.

If they roll, they rolled the dice and chose what numbers to take off the board based on the sum of the dice. For instance, if they rolled a 7, they could take off the 7, or 1-6, or 2-5, or 3-4, or 1-2-4, etc. Then another question was asked.

Later in the game, as the numbers whittled away, it was more advantageous to pass the dice to your oppornent. If the last numbers was "9" - good luck, Mr. Opponent! (Unless the opponent is Mike Dietrich). If you rolled and could not take off any numbers, you lose the game. Two wins out of the 3 and the contestant went to the bonus round.

The table and dice used for the game? Well, it looks simply like a big 1970s dining room table. The set looks like it is in a formal room. Pure late 70s/early 80s gaudiness. And the dice! At least 8" a side - just huge! Like the dice hanging from rear view windows in cars at the time. (boy, was I obsessed with those when I was 6 or 7. One of my friends had a big sister who drove - and she had those fuzzy dice - holy shit! She was my idol. I forgot her name, however. She may still be here in Cincinnati. )

Seems simple - and it is! A couple of wrinkles: each column had a nice prize (a trip, Amana washer/dryer, etc.), and if you cleared a column, you win that prize. This tried to force more people to roll rather than always pass.
Also - doubles! Doubles gave you an insurance marker .... a "free roll". Just like monopoly. This crystal-like plaque is handed to you to keep for the round; this is a much classier "hall pass" than those cheap coasters handed out on Wheel of Fortune.

The bonus game is simply the playing of "Shut the Box" for $10,000! Of course, the numbers were all lit up on the main stage - the 5-foot high numbers went dark as they were taken off one by one.  There is an episode of the bonus game where the only number left was "2" - and he rolled snake eyes to win!

Our host for the game.... Alex Trebek! Yes! Why isn't he given more credit as a staple of American television? This game started with Trebek as a host in 1974...this means he has been around our life on TV for 40 + years. This is Dick Clark territory here! How come he never gets the credit for this?

How could I not love this game? I remember watching this - vaguely - and practicing at home with any dice I could find. I quickly found out that winning the bonus game was impossible. Try it sometime! It's not easy. This made me even more determined to "win" at it. The show went off the air in 1981 (it made a brief return in 1986 with Wink Martindale) - but I never forgot it. - the dice, the graphics, and the table.

Rolling dice is now our quarterback situation. I feel like the only numbers on the board are a "1" and a "2" ... good luck, Cleveland! Find a quarterback! Contestant 1 is the alcoholic liar, Johnny; Contestant 2 is Austin Davis, a 4 years journeyman who we signed to a 2 year contract earlier this season! Is he the answer? Who knows...

On to the games, quickly:

Hou 23, Buf 17. Love how Houston's D is playing, and Buffalo's offense is shaky.

Chi 24, SF 20. I think the bears are overrated; they beat a bad Packers team last week. I like San Fran to keep it close here.

Mia 20, Bal 17. Bal still has pride, and I'm not sure if the Dolphins do.

Min 23, Sea 20. Tricky game, as the weaknesses/strengths here don't match up well on either side.

NYG 27, NYJ 24. Love Coughlin here as I think the Giants are going to be motivated to answer the bell.

Az 27, StL 13. Just can't see how the 3rd stringer of the Rams can put up enough points.

TB 30, Atl 17. Ryan does not play well outdoors, and Atl's defense is porous enough for Wnston to take advantage.

Ten 24, Jax 17. Jax will have a letdown here; they let their season slip away with that loss to the Chargers last week.

KC 24, Oak 20. Seems like a trap; can you always depend on an Andy Reid team to come through?

Den 20, SD 10. How will the Chargers score here against the dominating defense of Denver?

NO 30, Car 23. Just a feeling - one last hurrah for the Saints at home. Yes, I think I am desperate here.

NE 27, Phi 17. I don;t think the Pats will move the ball well without Gronk; and we know Philly's problems on O.

Pit 26, Ind 23. Ind's defense is playing better. This may be closer than we think.

Was 23, Dal 13. How will Dallas score? Washington is a good home team.

Best bets: 16 of them. Last week: 5-7; overall: 84-73-6
Hou +3
SF +7
Bal/Min under 42.5
Min +2
NYG +2.5
NYG/NYJ over 46.5
Az -4
TB -1
Ten -2
Den -3.5
Den/SD under 43.5
NO +6.5
Phi/NE under 49
Ind +7.5
Was -3.5

Supercontest: Last week: 1-4. Overall: 29-30-4. Below 500 now! Ugh!
SF +7
Hou +3.5
TB -1
NYG +2.5
Was -4.5