Next stop: Vietnam

Tomorrow we are leaving for vacation (yes, another week-long Chinese holiday week); we are heading to Vietnam. 3 days in Saigon, and then 3 more in Nha Trang, a beach town.

We already have some tours lined up in Saigon - we will be seeing the Cu Chi tunnels, going to the War Museum, and some other city sightseeing. I don't think the tunnels will faze me too much - it will be interesting to see the network of tunnels that they built during the war. However, the museum may be too much. Most of the reviews that we've seen about the museum say that they are incredibly biased. I'll see how long I can stay in there before walking out.

And then, of course, Sunday night at Midnight, I will be on my slingbox watching the kickoff of the Browns game in the hotel. Is this what we envisioned as a future life in Vietnam 40 years after the war? We are fighting so that Americans can watch the NFL whenever, whereever they wanted in Vietnam?

NFL Week 4: Oneida Casino

Well, the Browns are 2-1....and I really have no idea what to expect from this team. Are they good? (not in a Packers-good kid of way, but maybe Falcons, Eagles, or (dare I say) Steelers way - average to slightly better-than-average?) Or are they lucky and not very good at all? Yes, they have only beaten the Colts and Dolphins....but look what happened when Pittsburgh came to Indy. No one is putting the Steelers 20th in the power rankings.....

Anyway, I don't know what to expect from this team. We're 2-1 for the first time since - 2002. 9 years ago. We are veering a bit from our comfort zone here. And if somehow we can win vs. Tennessee, that means we are 3-1 at the break. I'm not confident, however; Chris Johnson has got to get untracked at some point and our run D is not good.

Speaking of moving out of the comfort zone, every young engineer in Tissue Towel that cared any bit about gambling had a trip to the Oneida casino in Green Bay. I still remember my first trip there fairly well. (And no - surprisingly, it was not with a fellow engineer that had multiple projects in Green Bay at the time...his name was Don).

I went with two other older engineeers in 1998 - it was a Monday night during football season. The Packers were not on. We went to one of the multiple $5 blackjack tables - all the $3 tables were full - and I sat down with $20.

I was not comfortable. It was not Vegas, and it was not my hometown Argosy. Were the rules different? (no) The players? (yes) The drinks? (no alcohol).

My $20 lasted 1 1/2 hours. My two fellow co-workers, who both busted out after about 15 minutes, were amazed. How in the hell did I make it last that long?

I think I have made at least 10 trips there during my time in Tissue Towel. The atmosphere at the casino would make Steve, Layup, Wiz, and others crazy. The age limit is 18 - so 18 year old are playing at the table with me. Let's just say the quality of play sucked. And since the age limit was 18, no alcohol was server. A bunch of high school seniors, drinking Mountain Dew and playing blackjack with me. That's Oneida.

On to the games!

Chi 23, Car 13. Back and forth on this one. I don't think Carolina has played a good defense yet this year.

Stl 23, Was 20, OT. A pure letdown pick after the Skins loss (but cover) on Monday night.

Phi 24, SF 16. I can't figure out the Eagles just yet.

Min 24, KC 20. I think Peterson will get the carries he dserves in the 4th quarter to seal it.

NO 26, Jax 13. With Gabbert, I think the Jags are one of the 3 or 4 worst teams in the league. And the Saints realize they can't slip up and fall to 2-2.

Hou 31, Pit 23. I know, I know, every year I say that BOTH Baltimore and Pittsburgh can't be good. I was wrong last year. I don't think I am wrong in 2011. Pittsbrugh can't run, and they can't stop a pass rush. A one-dimensional team can get to 8 or 9 wins, but not much more.

Dal 24, Det 20. Gees, if the Lions win THIS one, when is the letdown ever going to come?

Buf 20, Cin 17. The Bengals have a defense - but their offense won't be able to score enough.

Sea 26, Atl 20. Maybe these Falcons are not as good as advertised. (And that would make Browns fans extremely happy, as we own their #1 draft pick next year).

Az 27, NYG 20. Letdown, plus Fitzgerald vs. the beat up Giants secondary.

GB 28, Den 20. What's the motivation here for the Packers to go all out for this game?

SD 30, Mia 13. I think last week was the last straw for Sparano - the players are giving up.

NE 34, Oak 23. The Pats after a loss? I wouldn't want to be this team. And if the Pats lose? A lot of reevaluation will be going on.

Bal 29, NYJ 20. This game will have a lot of passing yards, and therefore a lot of scoring.

Tam 21, Ind 17. I can't see Tampa scoring enough to pull away.

Best bets: 17 of them. Last week: 9-8. Overall: 27-17-5.

Chi -6
Car/Chi under 42
Stl +2
NO -7
NO/Jax under 45
Hou -3.5
Pit/Hou over 45
Buf/Cin under 43.5
Sea +4
Atl/Sea over 38
Az +1
Den +12
SD -7
NE -4.5
Bal -3
NYJ/Bal over 42.5
Ind +10

Week 3

The picks for week 3:

Cin -2.5
Phi -6.5
NO -4
Ind +10.5
Was +4.5

Back to Civilization?

I was fortunate enough to spend this week in the US (in Cincinnati) for the company Modeling & Simulation meetings. I spent Sunday with Layup, watching the NFL games at BW-3's for 6 hours. Having breakfast, snack, and lunch at BW-3's right off the airplane did not do good things for my stomach. It did not take all that grease kindly.

Layup is a wonderful good luck charm when watching the games. If he goes to the bathroom, it's a guarantee that something good will happen to the games we wagered on. He missed 2 Tampa Bay TDs in the can, and missed 2 Dallas TDs in the afternoon. He was also taking a piss when Romo completed the long pass in overtime.

I am finding myself becoming more Chinese, bit by bit. Some examples:
- when paying by credit card, it is now a habit for me to hand the card over with 2 hands (a very Asian custom).
- I went to McDonald's; the bill was $5.27. I didn't have a $5 or $10 bill, so I handed him a $20 and a $1. He looked at me like I was on Mars. This is standard practice in China.
- He asked if this was for here or to go. I said "it is take away" - exactly the broken English that is used everywhere in China.

I got to see my parents on Monday and Janice's brother on Wednesday - where a fully loaded duffel bag full of clothes and other goodies were waiting.

I'm heading back home tonight - and probably will see sights like those in the picture above as soon as I get in. This picture is taken on the sidewalk on the street in front of our complex.

See the man by the tree? He has picked up his son by his armpits - and, yes, those are the kid's legs dangling in the air.

And yes, the kid's pants are pulled down to his knees. I hope the dad brought some sort of toilet paper.

NFL Week 3: Casino Royale

While we were reviewing the games this week, it was apparent quickly to Layup and I that there are several "trap" games on the schedule. Trap games are those where the superior team (on paper) should easily win - but the line is set at a place where everyone thinks it's too low. This usually happens when the favorite is the road team. Most analysts and bettors quickly look at the line, scoff at it - and jumps quickly on the favorite. By Sunday afternoon, it's clear it was a trap as the bettors lick their wounds.

I don't think there is a better definition of a "trap" casino than the infamous Casino Royale. Everyone know this place - right across the street from the Mirage, proudly advertising "$5 craps with 100 x odds!" - and on weekdays the limits could be even lower! They also have Blackjack switch!

More than once in Vegas, Layup and I have been bored - so we have the great idea to go to the Casino Royale. "C'mon", we say to each other. "How much trouble can we get into there? We'll roll the dice for a while - it's a $5 table! How much can we lose, $150??"

Two hours later, we struggle back into the daylight, absolutely beatne to a pulp. "What happened? 15x odds on the point of 8 sounds like a perfect idea!"

I think my career losses at the Royale are greater than losses at other, well known Vegas casinos, like the Luxor, Aladdin, TI, and Excalibur.

It was also the start of the Blackjack Switch love affair for our group. I remember one trip going, with Wiz, Layup, me, and maybe Jay. Layup was deathly ill (as usual) and sneezed and coughed all over the cards. He was sitting right next to Wiz - and Wiz was none too happy with this. Every cough made Wiz slug Layup in the arm, tellin ghim to get his "God damn saliva off of my cards". Of course, Wiz got sick later that week. *

* - maybe I have mis-remembered some (or all?) of the details. I'm sure I will be corrected in the comments.

Anyway, I think we are done with Casino Royale trips for the foreseeable future. How long can that casino, on a prime location on the strip, still be in business?

These are tough games this week - be very careful when wagering. Don't fall into the Royale traps.

NE 34, Buf 23. I'm too lazy to go against the convention wisdom for this game here. NE will be up by 10-17 all game, and Buffalo will score late to make it closer.

Cin 24, SF 13. The Bengals are an OK offensive team. The 49ers are not - and the Bengals defense is adequate.

Ten 23, Den 13. I was surprised to see the Titans stop the Ravens last week.

Det 20, Min 17. Casino Royale Game #1! Detroit has to come back to earth sometime, right?

NO 34, Hou 27. Who has Houston played? A shell shocked Colts team, and Miami at home. They have not been tested yet.

Phi 27, NYG 16. The eagles were moving the ball even with Kafka back there at QB.

Car 27, Jax 13. I think Cam keeps it going, although this could be Casino Royale Game #2.

NYJ 23, Oak 20. Casino Royale Game #3. This will go down to the wire and be decided by a field goal.

StL 24, Bal 20. Casino Royale Game #4. The Rams are desperate and at home - and won't self destruct like they did Monday night.

SD 31, KC 13. Not much to say here. The Chiefs offense could be the equivalent of the 1999-2000 Browns offense.

GB 20, Chi 19. Casino Royale Game #5. Should be a lot closer than people think.

Arz 20, Sea 17. Casino Royale Game #6. Seattle was playing a desperate Pittsburgh team last week - now they are at home facing a weak Arizona defense.

Atl 20, TB 16. I just don;t like Tampa's M.O. of falling way behind early.

Pit 24, Ind 20. Casino Royale Game #7. Indy is improving since thir world was rocked before the season started. They still have offensive weapons - Addai, Wayne, Clark. I'm not predicting a Colts win, but I think it will be close.

Dal 24, Was 23. Dallas just is not that good.

Best bets: 17 of them. Last week: 9-4-3; overall: 18-9-5.

NE -7
Cin -2.5
Den/Ten under 42.5
Det/Min under 45
NO -4
Hou/NO over 51.5
Phi -8
Car -3
StL +4
SD -14.5
Chi +4
GB/Chi under 45.5
Az/Sea under 43
Atl +1.5
Atl/TB under 46
Ind +10
Was +4.5

This week

The picks this week:

NO -6.5
Jax +9
TB +3
Dal -3
Atl +2.5

NFL Week 2: Argosy Casino

This week, the Browns go to Indiana to play in a new, pristine stadium that has been built in the last 2 years. The old stadium was serviceable, but it doesn't have all the amenities and space that the new stadium has. However, the old stadium really had charm, noise and character; the new stadium is anitseptic.

Hey wait, I'm not talking about the RCA Dome and Lucas Oil Field - I'm talking about the old Argosy Casino and the new Hollywood Casino!

The old Argosy - wow, I have a lot of memories from there. A temporary casino in Lawrenceburg opened in 1996, I believe. When I was working for TASC, a bunch of us from Dayton amde a road trip down there. I was still playing blackjack 80% of the time - and was at a $5 table. I put $10 in the circle - big money! - and they were about to deal the cards when a co-worker of mine butted in and put 5 red chips of his in my circle.

"Hey! What the hell are you doing?" I blurted.
"What? I'm piggybacking"
"What does that mean? You're messing things up!!"

I got dealt and ace, then a king. Blackjack. I still was pissed at him.

Layup and I would go there at least once a year, blaring Annie Lennox from the radio as we drove down the lonely stretch of I-275 at 9 at night.
Don and I would secretly root for a rain out if we were playing in Kentucky so that we could sneak over to Lawrenceburg instead.
I successfully convinced Janice we should go for a Argosy run for my birthday in January, 2001....so we spent 3 hours at a smoky craps table......(while she was 8 months pregnant).
When I worked at Winton Hill, in the west side of Cincinnati, I actually snuck over there for "lunch" one day - left work at 11, got back around 1:30. Yes, I was by myself. Why do you ask?

And then, the intimacy, the magic, the memories are all gone. The Argosy was replaced in 2009 with the monstrosity that is the Hollywood Casino. It's huge, impersonal, and it frankly sucks. I don't win there. The atmosphere is terrible. The dealers are all new and horrid. I will purposely drive 20-30 minutes out of the way to gamble at one of the other casinos.

It's what is happening to all the NFL stadiums now (and, to an extent, all new stadiums). The character, intimacy, and feel is gone. Sports Guy hsa wrote about this - the home field advantage is less nowadays just because of the structure of the new stadiums - they don't give the advantage to the home team like they used to.

Anyway - the Browns going to Indy, and their new stadium, reminded me of Argosy for this reason...I know it's a tenuous link. Dad is actually going to the game on Sunday - I'll report what he says about the atmosphere.

On to the games: (and there's no way in hell I'm predicting anything about this Browns team)

Buf 24, Oak 17. I still am trying to figure out each of these teams.

Was 27, Az 17. My goodness, the Cardinals' secondary is horrid. Grossman and the Skins will light them up.

Bal 24, Ten 21. A classic letdown game for the Ravens.

Pit 28, Sea 10. The Seahawks are in the bottom 5 of the league. The Steelers should take their frustrations out on them.

NYJ 20, Jax 17. I refuse to believe the Jets are championship caliber.

NO 31, Chi 17. The Saints are a bit desperate - they won't go 0-2.

TB 23, Min 20. Another desperation game - this time for the Bucs.

GB 30, Car 24. I do believe that the Panthers will be able to move the ball on the Pack. They won't win, but maybe Cam is for real - at least until defensive coordinators figure him out.

Det 24, KC 14. Alarm bells! This one seems too easy.

Dal 23, SF 16. I have to thinkn that Garrett will get this team fired up after their loss on Monday. They can't afford to go 0-2 (and 2 games behind the Skins?!?!?)

NE 31, SD 27. An old fashioned shootout at Jack Murphy. Where is Charlie Jones and Todd Christensen when you need them?

Cin 20, Den 16. Not exactly a vote in the Bengals, but against the Broncos.

Mia 24, Hou 20. Another classic trap/letdown game for the Texans. They threw everything they had into week 1 vs. the Colts. A letdown is impossible to avoid.

Atl 27, Phi 24. Another desperation game - this time for Atlanta.

NYG 20, StL 13. These offenses are pretty putrid.

Best bets: 16 of them. Last week: 9-5-2 (based on the lines I listed).
Buf -3
Was -3
Bal/Ten over 38
Pit -14
Jax +8.5
NO -6.5
TB +2.5
Car +10
GB/Car over 45.5
Det -7.5
KC/Det under 44.5
Dal -3
Cin +3
Mia +3
Atl +2
Stl/NYG under 44

Off we go!

Here are F&J's week 1 SuperContest picks. Lord help us!
The entire field's picks can be found here.

TB -1.5
Min +8.5
Arz -7
NE -7
Den -3

NFL Week 1: Palace Station

Here we are again! The opening week of the NFL season. The preseason is interminable as the anticipation for the opening week begins. Next thing we know, it will be week 6 with 1/3 of the season already gone.

I love the idea of tying each week to a Casino that I have visited! So, for week 1, of course, we will review the first casino I gambled at – the wonderful Palace Station! Everyone remembers their first Vegas trip – the buildup is tremendous, the plane is full of energy, the shuttle bus ride from the airport contains 32 overweight middle-aged women hoping to hit it big at slots, and the bus driver reciting lame puns about “Lost Wages” (yes, that’s an indelible memory)….

… and the next thing you know, it’s day 2 of the trip and you are down $200. (which was a HUGE amount of money for me in 1994!)

That is very much like week 1 of the NFL season – everyone is giddy, even Chris Berman seems funny – and then your favorite team lays an egg. By Monday, you are wondering “what the hell happened to my team/picks/fantasy team?” The Monday/Tuesday after week 1 is usually such a letdown.

Let’s hope the afterglow of week 1 is better than the final day of my first Vegas trip – where I had to resort to playing BINGO at Palace Station (I think I won a pot worth $7.75) and I eventually got carded while playing the nickel slots.

Onward to the picks!

GB 23, NO 20 – yes, a cop out pick. I do believe the Saints will be better this year. We will see how the rookie Ingram does.

Bal 27, Pit 17 – I do believe in the power of desperation. If a team is desperate, they will throw everything out there in order to win that game. It’s hard to think of week 1 as desperation, but if the Ravens lose – at home – they will be 1 down to the Steelers and they still have to go to Pit. Sports Guy’s podcast threw this idea out, and it makes sense. I think the Ravens will do anything to win this game.

TB 26, Det 20 – I like Josh Freeman, and I don’t trust the Lions (do they have a RB?) yet.

Atl 23, Chi 20 – who knows. I’m afraid of the Falcons outdoors. Cutler is good for some good games, and the Falcons don’t have a great defensive team.

KC 17, Buf 16 – Tyler Palko is in. Wow. Do they really deserve to be a heavy favorite here?

Hou 27, Ind 17 – I’m staying away from each of these until we find out more from each team.

Phi 20, StL 19 – The Eagles’ O-line sucks. I would be scared if you have Vick on your fantasy team.

Ten 27, Jax 17 – I’ve seen the Luke McCown show before – 5 years ago. I don’t think he has gotten much better from his days when I proclaimed for him to be the answer in Cleveland.

Was 27, NYG 24 – Grossman is starting, and the Giants have no secondary. This seems like a good opportunity for Grossman to have a nice start to the season before a real defense comes along.

Az 27, Car 13- - I just see the Panthers as clearly the worst team in football.

SF 20, Sea 16 – no idea here. Who’s starting for the Niners?

SD 24, Min 20 – look here now. Minnesota is not that bad. They have the best RB in football. McNabb is adequate – and he’s much better than what Favre game him last year. I think this will be a close game.

Dal 23, NYJ 17 - I think Sanchez is a mediocre quarterback – and look who the Dallas D coordinator is – Rob Ryan, our D coordinator last year. Rob developed game plans against Brady, Brees and Sanchez last year – and we went 2-0-1 against them. * I think Sanchez will look a little lost at times out there.

NE 30, Mia 16 – I just don’t see how NE is threatened in this game.

Den 30, Oak 20 – I like Kyle Orton. I think he’s at least an average quarterback. And I the coach is definitely an upgrade.

Best Bets of the week:
Bal -1
Pit/Bal over 36
TB -1.5
Buf +6
Buf/KC under 40
StL +4.5
Ten +2
Ten/Jax over 37
Was +3
Was/NYG over 37.5
Az -7
Min +8.5
Dal +4.5
NE -7
Den -3
Oak/Den over 40


*we beat the Pats and the Saints last year – and if we chose to, we could have tied the Jets. However, Mangini gambled for the win instead of settling for the sure tie (a decision I agreed with) , but lost. So I count this as a tie in my book.

Just spent the last four days in Vegas getting this set up, losing money at UTH, and doing a football fantasy draft. I have to say that drafting in Vegas was absolutely amazing.

1. 7 out of the 10 guys showed up. I greeted all of them with a $5 WNBA wager on Seattle Storm. What a huge hit! Thanks Eric for the idea. And to boot, the Storm covered and I am a legend now with the League.
2. Had to do the draft in our room. Worked out great. Got 7 CPK pizzas delivered up to the room, which lasted only about 15 minutes.
3. The commissioner (Brian) incorporated a great drinking idea into our draft. Each of us had to submit two names of players that would get drafted outside of the first three rounds. When they were drafted, the person who drafted said player had to do a shot. If the player was drafted by one of the three guys not in attendance, then you had to do the shot for him. Most of us picked kickers and defenses, so it really made the last three rounds awesome. Nothing like timidly selecting a kicker and then the commissioner announcing that you had to do 2 shots with the group going crazy.
4. After the draft, we were all pretty much trashed. Handing out 14 shots started to take its toll. I only gambled for another hour after the draft and then we all ended up going to a country bar over at the TI. Why? Because we saw that they were having specials on shots. Not a good idea. The last thing I remember was being pushed around in a cart in the TI casino before jumping off and all of us running out of the casino before being kicked out. I also ordered a double shot of lamb burgers. Yes, I ate 2 lamb burgers at BLT at 4 am in the morning before passing out at the table. Great time.

As for gambling, I took it on the chin. Lost a $600 hand at UTH on a kicker. And the UTH dealers now are acting all weird. Like you have to bet in order and no talking or sharing cards. Something must of happened for them to be that strict. The dealers do recognize me now which is nice, but probably not a good thing. I've been doing so bad at UTH that as a result of this latest outing, they comp'd two rooms for me during labor day weekend. Ugh. I can't wait for March though....