Hello everyone. What a week of intrigue, chaos and unpredictable results. And now we have no idea what's going to happen in the short term.
But enough about college football. I want to take some time and move away from sporting memories to put down some thoughts on the presidential election. This will be a bit of a post-mortem, there will be some perspective from my viewpoint, and an idea of where we are going in the future. I welcome any discussion in the comments. We've had civil arguments before on this blog - I'd love to return to those days!
Anyway, some key thoughts floating around in my head after the election on Donald J. Trump to the presidency.
1. Political Messaging counts. And this was Hillary's Achilles' heel in the end. I think I read that Hillary's team tried 75 different possibilities for a single message - before deciding on 2 that were seen throughout the campaign:
- "Stronger Together" - we'll get to that in a moment, and
- "Love Trumps Hate".
If you think about it, those two messages contradicted each other. "Stronger together" implies that we, as a nation, would be better if we all come together.....which sounds great.....except when you hear the second theme. It seems they want the nation to come together except for the "haters". And haters can be defined very loosely. So which is it?
The Love Trumps Hate has got to be the stupidest message in the last 50 years for America. We have real, serious problems in the US - and this is the answer. It's like we are living in "Aquarius: the Sequel" in Broadway.
ISIS Violence? No problem, if we just "love" them, it will go away.
Gun violence/regulation ? Those in favor of the 2nd amendment are just people who hate.
Illegal Immigration? Let's just "love" those that come here illegally, and all the problems will go away.
Of course, I'm not saying Trump has the solutions for these with his motto....but Hillary's message is dated. It's a very idealistic goal for a very realistic time. Completely 180 from what the electorate wanted.
2. The "hidden Trump vote" factor is real, exacerbated by bullying. In 1982, Tom Bradley won the election for mayor of Los Angeles over a African-America candidate; the African-American was leading in the polls until the end when Bradley pulled off a win. Political scientists (I studied this!) postulated abut the "Bradley effect" - that people may not tell pollsters their real intentions in a voice poll, but will certainly reveal their intentions at the ballot box. In the Bradley case, the theory was that a certain part of the electorate was racist that told pollster one thing but voted for Bradley.
I do believe this effect was in play for the 2016 election. For many reasons, it has become "unfashionable" to out yourself as a Trump supporter. "Are you an idiot?" is a popular question I hear of people that are thinking of supporting Trump. There's no debate of the issues....it's simply "groupthink". If the popular culture is all for Hillary, then you are a rube for thinking otherwise!
That's dangerous. And that just pissed people off.
One great example is HB2 in North Carolina. Look, I feel like I am socially moderate. (I have moved to the left, like the nation, on several issues socially). I'm for gay marriage and abortion.
But HB2 - the transgender bill in North Carolina - I'm sorry, I don't understand it. What's the point of the bill? How will this affect businesses? How many people does this affect? What's the impact to the population? I'm open to it, I just want to understand it better. I think there are legit concerns that some mothers have of men coming into women's restrooms. How to alleviate that?
Again, I'm open to hear arguments - but there were no arguments. It was "shut up - if you oppose this, you are a bigot. Sit down and shut up". Seriously! And the NCAA goes in and takes away tournmanet games...on the basis of a law where (I am guessing) 80% of the people are genuinely on the fence about. That's bullying. That's political bullying, and I think voters sent a message that they won't be bullied.
If you can't argue a position (besides "you are a hater"), that's a red flag.
This British comedian has the best explanation for Trump's rise - and the fault of the left for making this possible. I urge everyone to watch this so we all - left, right and moderate - don't fall into the same trap again....
3. It is unfathomable how the Clinton campaign did not know how to campaign to maximize electoral votes. I know this has the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.... but not going into Wisconsin and Michigan (until the very end) was malpractice. They should have seen that McCrory was in a dead heat in North Carolina, so the "bigot"/"love" argument may not be working in North Carolina. They should have seen the countryside in Ohio, Pennsylvania, even Virginia (as reported by a reader here) and the mass amount of Trump signs.
They were focused on turning people out- but the people they turned out didn't matter. They lived in 7-8 states, states that were so dark blue it wasn't needed. The people influenced by this message as something to vote "for" lived in CA, WA, NY, MD, DC, VA. All states that were already in the bag for Hillary. Running up the vote there did not matter. At All.
There were plenty of anti-Trump ads from Hillary here in Ohio. That's fine.....but she never had a message for swing state voters to vote for her. Why should a middle class housewife in Dayton vote for her? Why should a union member from Youngstown vote for her? These are people that voted for Obama twice.....
The campaign never realized that these voters are the ones that swing the election, rightly or wrongly. And they never played to them.
The electoral college is the method to pick our president. The Clinton campaign acted if the popular vote determined the winner. The electoral college is why Trump when to Green Bay, WI, Grand Rapids, MI and Scranton, PA at the end of the campaign. If the popular vote decided the election, the Trump campaign would have had a much, much different strategy.
I remember a Browns game in the early 90s when we beat the Bengals 14-13. it was a weird game - Matt Stover (!!!) had four field goals and we had a safety; that was just enough to beat the Bengals' more conventional 13 points.
Many "whiners" sound like the Bengals fans from that game. "but you didn't even score a touchdown! You don't deserve to win!" You play by the rules of the game. It's not touchdowns, it points. It's not the popular vote, it's the electoral college. The electoral college was set up for a reason - to prevent large populous states from having too much say in the nation. It's working exactly as intended....
4. Which gets us to the riots. I'm lost. What, exactly, are they protesting? What do they want? Is this just a temper tantrum? If so, this can logically be seen as the end point of our participation-trophy culture. Is it because Hillary won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote? If so, then please re-take civics again.
Saw a tweet out there that is a perfect summary of my thought on the riots:
Many people out there voted for Trump reluctantly with a tinge of regret......
What the rioters are doing right now simply confirms they made the right choice.
(by the way - that picture up above? That's the infamous Romney riots of 2012)
There are serious risks with the Trump presidency - I know, maybe I'll have time to go into them later. The risks were publicized by Clinton and her team - but no overarching reason to vote "for" her was actaully given.
I wanted to put a point 5 here - it's extremely difficult to win the presidency when you are of the same party of someone who just served 2 terms (see Stevenson*, Nixon, Gore, McCain.....). HW Bush did it because he ran against a horrible candidate in Dukakis. Clinton had to try to walk a fine line of "everything's great! Obama is wonderful" and "I hear you! We need change!". A good politican will have lots of trouble with that.....never mind a horrible one like Hillary.
After all that, no time for writeups on the games....here we are:
Car 25, KC 13
Hou 20, Jax 17
NO 30, Den 20
NYJ 20, LA 13
Phi 27, Atl 24
Chi 30, TB 24
Gb 31, Ten 27
Was 23, Min 13
Mia 24, SD 20
Az 20, SF 17
Pit 27, Dal 24
NE 31, Sea 21
Cin 27, NYG 17
Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 6-7-1; overall: 48-49-6
Car -3
Hou +2.5
NO -3
NYJ pk
LA/NYJ under 39.5
Chi -2.5
Chi/TB over 45.5
GB/ten over 49.5
Was -2
Min/Was under 42
Mia +4.5
SF +13.5
SF/Az under 47.5
Cin -1
My supercontest picks: last week: 1-4; overall : 22-22-1
Car -3
Mia +4
Cin +2
NO -3
SF +13.5
Our combined Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-1-1; overall: 24-18-3
Cle +9.5 (Loss)
Car -3
NO -3
NYJ -1.5
Phi pk
But enough about college football. I want to take some time and move away from sporting memories to put down some thoughts on the presidential election. This will be a bit of a post-mortem, there will be some perspective from my viewpoint, and an idea of where we are going in the future. I welcome any discussion in the comments. We've had civil arguments before on this blog - I'd love to return to those days!
Anyway, some key thoughts floating around in my head after the election on Donald J. Trump to the presidency.
1. Political Messaging counts. And this was Hillary's Achilles' heel in the end. I think I read that Hillary's team tried 75 different possibilities for a single message - before deciding on 2 that were seen throughout the campaign:
- "Stronger Together" - we'll get to that in a moment, and
- "Love Trumps Hate".
If you think about it, those two messages contradicted each other. "Stronger together" implies that we, as a nation, would be better if we all come together.....which sounds great.....except when you hear the second theme. It seems they want the nation to come together except for the "haters". And haters can be defined very loosely. So which is it?
The Love Trumps Hate has got to be the stupidest message in the last 50 years for America. We have real, serious problems in the US - and this is the answer. It's like we are living in "Aquarius: the Sequel" in Broadway.
ISIS Violence? No problem, if we just "love" them, it will go away.
Gun violence/regulation ? Those in favor of the 2nd amendment are just people who hate.
Illegal Immigration? Let's just "love" those that come here illegally, and all the problems will go away.
Of course, I'm not saying Trump has the solutions for these with his motto....but Hillary's message is dated. It's a very idealistic goal for a very realistic time. Completely 180 from what the electorate wanted.
2. The "hidden Trump vote" factor is real, exacerbated by bullying. In 1982, Tom Bradley won the election for mayor of Los Angeles over a African-America candidate; the African-American was leading in the polls until the end when Bradley pulled off a win. Political scientists (I studied this!) postulated abut the "Bradley effect" - that people may not tell pollsters their real intentions in a voice poll, but will certainly reveal their intentions at the ballot box. In the Bradley case, the theory was that a certain part of the electorate was racist that told pollster one thing but voted for Bradley.
I do believe this effect was in play for the 2016 election. For many reasons, it has become "unfashionable" to out yourself as a Trump supporter. "Are you an idiot?" is a popular question I hear of people that are thinking of supporting Trump. There's no debate of the issues....it's simply "groupthink". If the popular culture is all for Hillary, then you are a rube for thinking otherwise!
That's dangerous. And that just pissed people off.
One great example is HB2 in North Carolina. Look, I feel like I am socially moderate. (I have moved to the left, like the nation, on several issues socially). I'm for gay marriage and abortion.
But HB2 - the transgender bill in North Carolina - I'm sorry, I don't understand it. What's the point of the bill? How will this affect businesses? How many people does this affect? What's the impact to the population? I'm open to it, I just want to understand it better. I think there are legit concerns that some mothers have of men coming into women's restrooms. How to alleviate that?
Again, I'm open to hear arguments - but there were no arguments. It was "shut up - if you oppose this, you are a bigot. Sit down and shut up". Seriously! And the NCAA goes in and takes away tournmanet games...on the basis of a law where (I am guessing) 80% of the people are genuinely on the fence about. That's bullying. That's political bullying, and I think voters sent a message that they won't be bullied.
If you can't argue a position (besides "you are a hater"), that's a red flag.
This British comedian has the best explanation for Trump's rise - and the fault of the left for making this possible. I urge everyone to watch this so we all - left, right and moderate - don't fall into the same trap again....
3. It is unfathomable how the Clinton campaign did not know how to campaign to maximize electoral votes. I know this has the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.... but not going into Wisconsin and Michigan (until the very end) was malpractice. They should have seen that McCrory was in a dead heat in North Carolina, so the "bigot"/"love" argument may not be working in North Carolina. They should have seen the countryside in Ohio, Pennsylvania, even Virginia (as reported by a reader here) and the mass amount of Trump signs.
They were focused on turning people out- but the people they turned out didn't matter. They lived in 7-8 states, states that were so dark blue it wasn't needed. The people influenced by this message as something to vote "for" lived in CA, WA, NY, MD, DC, VA. All states that were already in the bag for Hillary. Running up the vote there did not matter. At All.
There were plenty of anti-Trump ads from Hillary here in Ohio. That's fine.....but she never had a message for swing state voters to vote for her. Why should a middle class housewife in Dayton vote for her? Why should a union member from Youngstown vote for her? These are people that voted for Obama twice.....
The campaign never realized that these voters are the ones that swing the election, rightly or wrongly. And they never played to them.
The electoral college is the method to pick our president. The Clinton campaign acted if the popular vote determined the winner. The electoral college is why Trump when to Green Bay, WI, Grand Rapids, MI and Scranton, PA at the end of the campaign. If the popular vote decided the election, the Trump campaign would have had a much, much different strategy.
I remember a Browns game in the early 90s when we beat the Bengals 14-13. it was a weird game - Matt Stover (!!!) had four field goals and we had a safety; that was just enough to beat the Bengals' more conventional 13 points.
Many "whiners" sound like the Bengals fans from that game. "but you didn't even score a touchdown! You don't deserve to win!" You play by the rules of the game. It's not touchdowns, it points. It's not the popular vote, it's the electoral college. The electoral college was set up for a reason - to prevent large populous states from having too much say in the nation. It's working exactly as intended....
4. Which gets us to the riots. I'm lost. What, exactly, are they protesting? What do they want? Is this just a temper tantrum? If so, this can logically be seen as the end point of our participation-trophy culture. Is it because Hillary won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote? If so, then please re-take civics again.
Saw a tweet out there that is a perfect summary of my thought on the riots:
Many people out there voted for Trump reluctantly with a tinge of regret......
What the rioters are doing right now simply confirms they made the right choice.
(by the way - that picture up above? That's the infamous Romney riots of 2012)
There are serious risks with the Trump presidency - I know, maybe I'll have time to go into them later. The risks were publicized by Clinton and her team - but no overarching reason to vote "for" her was actaully given.
I wanted to put a point 5 here - it's extremely difficult to win the presidency when you are of the same party of someone who just served 2 terms (see Stevenson*, Nixon, Gore, McCain.....). HW Bush did it because he ran against a horrible candidate in Dukakis. Clinton had to try to walk a fine line of "everything's great! Obama is wonderful" and "I hear you! We need change!". A good politican will have lots of trouble with that.....never mind a horrible one like Hillary.
After all that, no time for writeups on the games....here we are:
Car 25, KC 13
Hou 20, Jax 17
NO 30, Den 20
NYJ 20, LA 13
Phi 27, Atl 24
Chi 30, TB 24
Gb 31, Ten 27
Was 23, Min 13
Mia 24, SD 20
Az 20, SF 17
Pit 27, Dal 24
NE 31, Sea 21
Cin 27, NYG 17
Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 6-7-1; overall: 48-49-6
Car -3
Hou +2.5
NO -3
NYJ pk
LA/NYJ under 39.5
Chi -2.5
Chi/TB over 45.5
GB/ten over 49.5
Was -2
Min/Was under 42
Mia +4.5
SF +13.5
SF/Az under 47.5
Cin -1
My supercontest picks: last week: 1-4; overall : 22-22-1
Car -3
Mia +4
Cin +2
NO -3
SF +13.5
Our combined Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-1-1; overall: 24-18-3
Cle +9.5 (Loss)
Car -3
NO -3
NYJ -1.5
Phi pk
1 comment:
Good writeup here. Honestly I feel like 2000 all over again, I really disliked GWB and knew he was going to be a complete disaster, and he certainly didn't disappoint! That wasn't a 20/20 hindsight second guess, it was a first guess. Now I fear we are going to be looking back longingly for the days of "Brownie, your doing a heckuva job!" - have you seen some of these people being discussed for positions in Trump staff??!? I mean, yikes. Sigh........
As far as the post mortem, I agree with your points. On point #2 (Bradley effect), you are spot on. I felt prior to the election that he was going to out perform the polls, due to closet bigotry (sorry but true), people who didn't want to admit they wanted to protest the "system", or people who just flat out hate the Clintons and all their history/baggage. Well, we don't have to guess about a Bradley effect, Trump's own campaign manager admitted that their own internal polling showed different (more positive results) when the polling was done by robocalls vs actual people, as the person being polled felt more anonymous talking to a machine vs human.
While the broad discussion is centered around the Trump Voter (how could that many people vote for him?, people just think this is another reality show, racism is still alive in america, etc,etc), I don't feel enough is being said about her. She didn't energize and connect with people, especially swing voters and especially swing voters in swing states. I think most people just felt a "meh" feeling when it came to her, and this is after following Obama???? That is like John Meyer coming on stage after Eric Clapton, sure he's a good guitar player, and can rip some nice solos - but you are following one of the best we have seen in our lifetime. In other words, its an inevitable letdown. Or in football, the old saying "you never want to be the guy after The Guy, you want to be the guy after the guy who replaced The Guy" (got that? :)
Lastly, its really embarrassing how arrogant the Clinton people were. They were criticizing Trump and his inexperienced staff with their execution in terms of their "operation". Especially when he was holding late pre-election events in Leesburg, VA, PA and MI. Well guess what - he was there because his people thought those states were in play - and they were 1000% right.
OK, really last thing now. Most people here know I have supported the Clintons from the beginning. My sister introduced Gov Bill at a pre 1992 event in NH, and ended up working on his 92 campaign. So our whole family has supported the Clintons for a long time. After this debacle, I just want them to go the **** away. They had their time, but its time for new blood. It is clear how the Obamas are that focus, while the Clintons feel like a band going on a Reunion Tour 20 years past their prime.
I'm done, if you need me over the next four years I'll be in the bunker I built back in 2000.
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