NFL Week 4: October 18, 2007

October baseball is back in Cleveland! Many of you know (or should have known) the Indians clinched the Central on Monday - giving them their first division title in 10 years. (We made the playoffs in 2013, but we made it as a wild card...and I want no part of that game at all. Too many variables in a 1 game situation. Just ask Oakland in 2014....)

This year's team had the pitching to really go far in the playoffs until the injury bug struck. Our #2 and #3 pitchers, Carrasco and Salazar, are now out with injuries, and our ace -Kluber - is suffering through a groin pull. So we have to cobble our rotation together (and Francona is good at doing that) but I don't have a lot of hopes for the next week or two.


It looks like - but I don't think it's set - that we will play Boston in the best of 5 ALDS. Hoo boy, that brings us back 10 years ago to a painful loss. In 2007, we won the AL Central and held off the Yankees in 4 games to win the ALDS. (That was the year of the Joba Chamberlain gnat game). Boston was our opponent in the ALCS that year - and there was a feeling around baseball that this was the de facto World Series - as in the National League, the fluky Colorado Rockies went on to win the NLCS and be in the World Series. Either of these teams were going to kill the Rockies.

We split the first two games in Boston, then came home for games 3-4-5. Somehow, we won games 3 and 4 and had a 3-1 lead going into Game 5 on a Thursday night in Cleveland. Don got tickets, and I think Janice and I drove up with Don and Michelle for Game 5 that night in Cleveland. It was an 8 pm start, I believe.  Were we actually going to see an American League pennant being captured in front of my eyes?

I recall a very bad omen heading into the game. We walked from our parking spot to the game - past many of the vendors.....one of the stands were selling "Indians - 2007 AL Champs!" T-shirts for $20. I shook my head at that as we walked by . Oh dear.  The city needs to stop any future illegal copyright infringement gooches from now on.

The pitching matchup was C C Sabathia for the good guys and Josh Beckett for the Red Sox. Someone in the front office felt extremely cocky - too cocky - and scheduled a female singer for the National Anthem. The singer was Danielle Peck - Josh's ex-girlfriend.

Oh yeah, no tempting fate there.

I don't remember too much about the game - it was 1-1 after 1, and Boston scored in the 3rd to make it 2-1. Beckett was solid - I never really felt like we had any chance to break through with more runs. C C pitched ok, but fell apart in the 7th; Boston scored 2 in the 7th and 3 in the 8th to win, 7-1. The series would go back to Boston.

Of course, as you know, Boston won games 6 and 7 at home to win the ALCS....... and, to rub even more salt in the wounds, they swept the inferior Rockies in the World Series. If we had beaten the Red Sox in either game 5, 6 or 7, I have to believe we would have been doing the sweeping in the Series.

( For you Tribe fans out there - or those that get pissed off at Boston dominance - we can look back at this video fondly from October 3, 1995. Come for the Tony Pena highlights, stay for the Bob Costas shrieking!)

On to the games:

Jax 27, Ind 20. I mentioned that Jax desperate home dog in week 3. I meant week 4. Ha! What a boring game plan they had last week - they HAVE to open it up this week vs. the depleted Colts secondary.

Chi 24, Det 20. Detroit is not good enough to be favored on the road. They still seem to have a penchant for blowing winnable games.

Car 30, Atl 27. I don't think Carolina's defense is all that good this year - so Atlanta will score; Carolina will be able to match them and eke this one out.

Bal 24, Oak 17. Bal's specialty is to play close to the vest, not make mistakes, and let the other team beat themselves. This should work against a young Oakland team on the road.

Hou 20, Ten 13. I know Watt is out, but Houston has had 10 days to prepare for this game. They have the superior talent and should win a low scoring game.

NE 23, Buf 20. No idea what tricks Belicheck will pull out of his hat for this one.

NYJ 20, Sea 16. the jets have a formidable defensive line - and I think they will dominate the Seattle weakness- their O line. Obviously, this is dependent on Fitzpatrick not throwing 6 interceptions again.....

TB 27, Den 23. Just a hunch. I really don't think Simien is all that elite. He beat a Carolina defense that took a step down from last year, struggled to move the ball vs. the Colts and ....well, I'll give him lots of credit for the Bengals road win. Could be a let down.

Az 27, LA 16. Talk about a let down - how did the Rams score 37? I can't see the Cardinals giving up half that much here.

SD 30, NO 24. No idea. Anything can happen in this game. I'm sure this will be a 6-3 barnburner given the horrid defenses on both sides.

SF 24, Dal 20. Who, exactly, have the Cowboys played? The Giants - not known for their secondary strength...the Redskins (ditto), and the Bears who are a mess. Who gave them this easy schedule?

Pit 30, KC 20. I have to believe Ben will break out here with Bell back, coming off a loss. KC only scored 24 points last week with 8 turnovers given to them. That's 1999-Browns like.

Min 23, NYG 20. Not sure what will happen here. I think the Vikes are due for a letdown....after 3 tough games, the last 2 vs. elite teams.

Best bets: 11 games. Last week: 3-10-1; overall: 18-20-2.
Jax +2
Chi +3
Car/Atl over 49
Bal -3.5
Ten/Hou under 43.5
Buf +6.5
NYJ +1.5
TB +3
Den/TB over 43
SF +1.5
Pit -3.5

My supercontest picks: Last week: 1-4; overall: 7-8
NYJ +2.5
Pit -5.5
SF +2.5
Chi +3
Jax +2.5

Combined Supercontest entry: Last week: 1-4; overall: 8-7
Jax +2.5
NYJ +2.5
Arz -8
Pit -5.5
NYG +4.5