NFL Week 1: January 4, 1981

Welcome back! It's time for week 1 of the NFL season and the weekly themed picks! I struggled to come up with a theme this year for the picks - I was close to giving you 17 small biographies of mediocre 1980s golfers such as Wayne Levi and Bob Gilder - until Layup hit upon an idea. Why not celebrate the Cavs victory ending the Cleveland curse?

Good idea - but my concern was - were there enough painful losses in my memory to support 17 weeks? I really had to work to come up with only 17...I had about 94 to choose from....

Before this summer, I was thinking the closest I would ever get to a pro championship would be the 1983 Orioles...that was the first / second year we moved to Baltimore, and our social studies teacher had the magic # listed every day in the fall and would make a big deal of changing it in front of the class. But then I fell out of love with the Orioles and embraced my Cleveland roots....and I thought I was destined to never see a victory parade.

Had a great time this summer at the parade; I took Freddie up, spent the day with Kermit; met Steve at work, and even caught a Tribe game. It really was a great experience.....something that had never occurred in the city for 52 years, and to be a part of it when it finally happened was amazing.

I will freely admit, the Cavs fall 3rd in my personal sports pecking order. If I had my choice on which team I would want to have a championship, my personal order is this - with clear separation between the 3 teams:

1. Browns
2. Indians
3. Cavaliers

(and, if we expand to other teams I root for:
4. Blue Jackets
5. Capitals
6. U of Maryland
7. Sacramento Kings
8. Ohio State....as a taxpayer of Ohio, I think I am legally required to root for the Buckeyes )

Anyway- I'm not complaining. I finally got my wish of a championship and a downtown parade. However, a parade in June under 85 degree sunny skies is a nice party; can you imagine 1.5 million people downtown in February in a snowstorm if, somehow, this Browns leadership brings home a title in 3-5 years?????)

Now on to the catharsis....our first painful sports memory brings us to Lansing, Michigan, and a random bowling alley on the east side of town. I was one week away from turning 9 at the time. The Browns 1980 season was a magical one; the team was called the Kardiac Kids for their ability to pull out last minute wins (and a spectacular last minute loss on a Hail Mary to Minnesota, where Ahmad Rashad caught a 50 yard pass to win at the buzzer).

This team was special; the brown jerseys and the orange pants were classic. Brian Sipe was our QB; Ozzie was in his prime, and we had the Pruitts as our running back. Lyle Alzado anchored the defense. We finished 11-5 and won the division (for the first time in 6 years, I think). The division win gave us a bye and a first round home playoff game against Oakland. It was a freezing day, with the actual temperature being 4 degrees.

I was in 3rd grade at the time, and just starting to get into sports; there was a pencil machine at our school that spit out pencils for 5 cents, and it had all 28 teams on it. I really wanted the Browns pencil...but kept getting the damn Tampa Bay one.  A lot of my friends were Lions fans, and the Lions were doing good with Eric Hipple (remember him?) as QB. My first jersey that I remember was a Sipe jersey I wore to school.

Lansing was an interesting city for sports at that time; the local hero was a basketball star at Michigan St. named Earvin Johnson; he somehow sponsored a local dairy store named Quality Dairy. I think he just graduated and got drafted by the Lakers, so this was all legal. I remember we had 5-8 Magic Johnson Quality Dairy frisbees around the house. (there's no truth to the rumor that I starred in this 1980 commercial......)

Anyway, all of us went bowling that day and we watched the game at the bowling alley. The game went back and forth; our kicking game was not good; Cockroft (our K) missed 2 field goals and we had an extra point blocked. We were down 14-12 with under a minute remaining, and we were driving - we were at the Raiders 13 with 49 seconds left.

Now what to do? Coach Rutligiano called for Sipe to pass the ball to the left corner of the end zone. And this is a quote: "If he's not open, throw it into Lake Erie". Sipe took the snap, looked left - saw Ozzie in the endzone, and threw it---- problem is, the throw wasn't good and Ozzie was well covered. Mike Haynes intercepted it and the Raiders ran out the clock.

I was devastated. I could not believe the Browns actually lost. the announcers told me they pulled out games at the last minute all season - and I thought it was certain to happen again! Why did he throw it? Why not kick a field goal? It is the first time I remember crying while watching a sporting event.

So many factors went into the decision for this play...the weather was the big one, of course; Cockroft said later he was not at 100% and a 30 yard field goal was no sure thing at that time. There's a lot of variables to consider; this play was discussed at length in a undergraduate statistics class I had at Case. The question was - given the background and situation, what play gave the highest expected value - the pass, a run or a kneel down for a field goal? With the assumptions made, it was clear that the pass was the highest expected value play call at the time.

(This was my first exposure to being on the "right side", but not the winning side. That stats class gave me a lot of good background for future sports gambling.....)
(Now I am going to have to waste time to find that textbook in the basement).

Anyway....this play/season was the start of my painful Cleveland experiences. Every fan over the age of 40 or so knows what Red Right 88 is - the name of that pass to the left side of the end zone.

(Oh - where was Layup? Not sure...but I do remember driving back from the bowling alley a few times trying to help him count to 20....he always managed to skip 13 or 15 ......)

On to the week 1 games!

TB 31, Atl 24.  I am convinced Winston will make the leap this year and Tampa will be decent. Mike Smith will be motivated to beat his former team. What other weapons do the Falcons have besides Jones?

Bal 20, Buf 16.   A healthy Baltimore team should be back to an 8-8, 9-7 team and have enough to beat the overrated Bills. I just don't think Buffalo is that good.

Hou 24, Chi 17. Not convinced of Osweiler, but the D should handle the Bears - who already have injury problems on the line.

GB 34, Jax 20. The Packers are healthy - and when they are, their offense is almost unstoppable. I can't see the Jags holding them under 30 - and I don't see them getting to 30 with Bortles just yet.

KC 23, SD 20. A lot closer than people expect. I think the Chargers will move the ball and keep it close, and I'm not convinced the Chiefs can blow them out right now with the players they have missing on D.

NO 31, Oak 28. Yes, I know, a popular pick for a shootout - which means this will be a 14-13 final. God bless David Carr!

NYJ 20, Cin 16. I have faith that Revis can contain A J Green --- and then what does Cincinnati have? The Jets have a solid run D, Eifert is out....so how is Cincinnati going to move the ball? a good matchup here for the Jets.

Min 20, Ten 13. Boy, a leap of faith here on this one. I think the Vikings will rally and do just enough to win.

Sea 27, Mia 14. Maybe this is a bit lazy.....I am concerned about the Sea OL handling Miami, but I can't see Miami movign the ball all that much.

NYG 28, Dal 23. You have a rookie QB and a rookie RB starting for Dallas? I'm sorry, I know Zeke may be good - but we have no idea how Prescott looks. None. Don't tell me "oh, he was great in the preseason!" No. I've seen so many "good" performances in my preseasons and none panned out. The Giants should figure our some defensive scheme to force mistakes.

Det 28, Ind 20. The Lions match up well with the Colts - good secondary - and they have fixed their OL a bit and should be able to move the ball.

Az 31, NE 20. If Belicheck can win this game,..........it will be interesting to see how well Jimmy can do against a good D.

Was 27, Pit 24. A good matchup for the Skins. They will rely heavily on the pass, which is the Steelers' weakness; Defensively, they can manage Pit's run game and hope Norman can contain Brown.

SF 19, LA 16. Am I missing something here? I think LA can go 4-12 or worse.

Best bets: 14 of them.
TB +2.5
Buf/Bal under 44.5
GB -4.5
SD +6.5
Oak/NO over 52
NYJ +1.5
Min -2.5
Min/Ten under 40
NYG pk
Det +3.5
NE/Arz over 44
Was +3
SF +2.5
LA/SF under 42.5

My personal supercontest picks:
Det +3.5
SF +2.5
TB +2.5
Was +3
NYG -1.5

We are putting in a join entry into the real Supercontest. Here is the joint entry:
Car -3 (Loss....thanks, Wiz)
Bal -3
Atl -2.5
Det +3.5
SF +2.5