NFL Week 3: November 4, 2001

I know the Browns will be bad this year - but it's good to see they will be providing episodes of lost leads and choking down the stretch, just like every year! I want to thank many of you for texting me in the 1st quarter - when the Browns were up 20-0 and then 20-2 - asking me how the Browns will blow it. It's the first quarter! There's plenty of time for a slow, gradual descent into defeat with no real dramatic moments ..... and that's what came to pass.

One of you texters said: "Ha! This loss has to be in the top 10 of Browns defeats!" Um, no. It's not even in the top 20 for this decade. When you lose games at the buzzer on a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown (in prime time, no less), these standard 1 pm blown leads are just like the UTH dealer hitting an inside straight. You know it's coming, you are just preparing for the disappointment for 2 hours until the end.

Now, for truly crushing regular season losses, you can't really beat a 10 month period from 2001-2002. We will be talking about 3 separate games from that span on the blog this year. The coach for those years was Butch Davis - still widely believed as the best game coach the Browns have had since the return. He is also the last coach to take us to the playoffs.

2001 was the third year after the re-birth; recall our record for 99-00 combined was 5-27. There wasn't much in the cupboard for Butch to work with. Nonetheless, he got us off to a great start in 2001 and we were 4-2 heading to a game in Chicago against the Bears. The Bears had an even better start and were 5-1. This game was a late start (4:15) and I think Jim Nantz was on the call.

I missed most of the game because we were at our regular small group for church; I do remember exactly whose house we were at. I think we left around 6, 6:15 pm (our group were all families with infants, so young Freddie - 9 months old at the time - had to get home); by then it was the 3rd quarter and the Browns had gotten out to a 14-7 lead. (For those of you keeping track, Timmy was our QB for this game). Late 3rd quarter, Timmy hit Kevin Johnson for a 55 yard TD and we had a 21-7 lead.

I watched the 4th quarter at my house; our defense was holding the Bears. (Shane Matthews was the Bears' QB). The Bears started a late drive at their own 20 with 2:00 left; they went on a 9 play, 80 yard drive that ended up in a TD with :28 remaining to make it 21-14.

To be completely honest, I never chalked this game up as a win while it was going on. The CBS crew cut to the sidelines to show the Browns celebrating and packing the equipment up in the cases.

Of course, you all can guess what happened next. Onside kick - recovered by the Bears; 2 plays later they are at the Browns' 34 with :08 left; Matthews then throws a long pass into the end zone where it is batted and caught by James Allen. Touchdown. Tie game. 14 points in 30 seconds to tie.

Bears win the toss in overtime; we stop them! We get the ball back at our 20; 3 plays later Couch throws a pick 6 to Mike Brown and we lose, 27-21. This was the second straight week that Mike Browns of the Bears ended the game with a pick 6. The Bears ended up that year 13-3 (does anyone remember that???)

Freddie was sleeping nicely in his swing in the TV room when this all happened; of course there were lots of profanities yelled; he woke up and started crying; Janice came downstairs to find Freddie in his swing crying and Eric laying in front of the TV crying as well. Instead of a 5-2 start, we were now 4-3 and the momentum of the season turned.

So when you have losses like that, plain old vanilla losses like last week don't hurt anymore.

On to the games:

Az 23, Buf 21. This game looks too easy, and I'm running away from it. There should be no way the Bills hang with them - but (as we always see), home teams that are 0-2 are always dangerous. This is Rex's last chance for a good coahcing game.

Car 23, Min 20. How much more impressive can the Vikings defense look? And I am not completely sold that Carolina is back - they let up a lot of points & yards to the 49ers last week.

Cin 23, Den 13. Cincinnati will try to establish the run - eating the clock; and I think the Cincy D will control Simien. If the Colts D can handle the Broncos' offense, then I think the Bengals will be fine.

GB 31, Det 20. Yes, I can't help myself. The Green Bay trap. Home opener for the Packers, and the Lions lack mental toughness (I've seen it in both games).

Jax 27, Bal 17. Can we stop and understand what the Ravens have done? They only scored 13 vs. the Bills and they let us take a 3 touchdown lead. Their secondary is slow and the Jags will take advantage.

NYG 23, Was 17. The Giants have a classic bend-but-don't-break D to let up a lot of yards, but will force Cousins to make decisions in the red zone - and we know that's not his strength.

Oak 24, Ten 20. I think Tennessee will control the tempo here, establishing the run game first  - game will be at their pace, but they just don't have enough offensive weapons.

Sea 20, SF 17. The 49ers defensive line is decent (see teh Rams game) and they should get plenty of pressure against Wilson and the horrid Seahawks line. If Gabbert can limit the mistakes (big if), the Niners have a chance to actually win this.

TB 31, LA 13. I'm sorry, I think the Rams are worse than the Browns. They don't have a passing game yet, and if therir D line can be netrualize, their secondary is not good. Tampa should put up lots of points.

Ind 23, SD 20. Desperate 0-2 team at home; this is purely a "spot" play, as I think SD will have a let down here.

KC 27, NYJ 20. I think the KC pass rush- one thing they do well - will be able to disrupt the Jets' offense. I see the Chiefs trying more of a passing game here to get around the strong Jets' run D.

Pit 28, Phi 20. Let's not crown the Eagles just yet. They beat the Browns and Bears. I know Wentz looked good, but those are teams without much of a pass rush. I expect the Steelers to confuse Wentz.

Dal 24, Chi 23. this line should not be a touchdown. Period. I have faith in Brian Hoyer to keep this close, especially against a weak Dallas D.

NO 34, Atl 20. The Saints could really be 2-0; the emotion will play a big part of the game here for the Saints.....oh, who cares. No one will be watching this game. Not even people in New Orleans. They'll watch and see the Mark Cuban/Gennifer Flowers antics in the first row of the debate.

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 5-7; overall: 15-10-1
Min +7
Cin -3.5
Den/Cin under 42.5
GB -7
Jax +1
NYG -3
Was/NYG under 46
SF +10
TB -4.5
(SD/Ind under 51.5)
KC -3
Pit -3.5
Chi +6.5
NO -2.5

Eric's Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-2; overall: 6-4
Jax pk
NO -3
KC -3
Chi +7.5
SF +9.5

Team Supercontest picks: Last week: 4-1; overall: 7-3
NYJ +3
Jax pk
Oak +1.5
NO -3
SF +9.5

NFL Week 2: January 4, 1986

As we continue our look back at painful Cleveland losses, we move forward exactly 5 years to the day from Red Right 88 to this game, which has largely been forgotten in Cleveland lore - the 1985 NFL playoff game vs. Miami.

You could see the foundation starting to be built with the Browns around this time. In the 1984 season, the Browns fired their head coach, Sam Rutigliano, in mid-season and promoted a coordinator to take over the reins for the last 8 games in '84. That new coach, of course, was Marty. He took a team that started 1-7 in '84 and finished the last 8 games at 4-4.

We did need a quarterback, however, Paul McDonald was just not going to cut it. So we "finagled" the supplemental draft (there were some controversial maneuverings done) to land Bernie as the #1 pick in the supplemental.  He was immediately named our starting quarterback.

The '85 season was - let's face it - mediocre, as the team grew both offensively and defensively. this is the year that Byner and Mack broke on to the scene with their 1,000 yard rushing seasons. A positive was that we were playing in the AFC Central, which proved to be horrible that year. The Steelers were in transition and getting old after their Super Bowl era; the Bengals were also old after their first Super Bowl 3 years earlier, and Houston just plain sucked. It was anybody's division to win; the Browns went 4-2 in the division and finished 8-8, one game above Pitt and Cincy and we won the division. At the time, it was the worst record for a playoff qualifier ever. (Pro Football Outsiders called this team one of the worst ever in history to make the playoffs.) The media hated us, as the darling Broncos and their gap-toothed idiot quarterback went 11-5 and missed the playoffs, but we made it.

As a division winner, we actually got a bye and the divisional playoff game was in Miami - Miami went 12-4; this was the height of the Dolphins with Marino , Clayton, Duper, etc. This was the team that gave the Bears their only loss of 1985. And we had to go into Miami and play them.

I remember having an indoor soccer game that afternoon at the Hereford High School old gym - to you Marylanders, is the old gym still standing now? That gym was horrible even in the 80s. (As an aside, I have plenty of memories from that old gym - which is the location for me breaking an arm playing dodgeball in high school - yes, I was a great athlete. Oh - and can't forget our great PE teacher who told me that my broken arm was nothing - "get back in there"...... I'll give you all two guesses on who that teacher was. God, I hated PE at Hereford.)

Anyway, I remember Dad waiting for me after the soccer game; I went over and asked him what the score was.

"It's 21-3...."

Oh...well, I never expected to beat Miami, so that's ok.

"No, the Browns are winning!"

Our running attack ran wild against the Miami defense, and Byner had a 66 yard run early in the 3rd to make it 21-3. Our defense was somehow stopping the Dolphins' passing attack. We rushed home, listening to the radio on the way home and turning on the TV.

I don't have to tell you how this ended. As soon as I started following the game, the Dolphins came to life; scoring two touchdowns in the 3rd to make it 21-17; our offense sputtered as they started stopping the run. The Dolphins scored with about 4 minutes left to take a 24-21 lead; we couldn't get in position to kick a game tying field goal and that was the final score.

At the time, it was the second-greatest comeback in NFL playoff history (behind an obscure 1957 game between Detroit and San Fran). Thank God the 1993 Bills-Oilers game completely obliterated the record book on playoff comebacks shortly after. The game was painful at the time - since we were up 18 - but in my heart, I knew we were the inferior team so it wasn't that big of a deal. I may have said something like .. "this team will only get better, and we will get back to the playoffs many more times and have big wins........right? Right???"

Looking back in retrospect, however, this was a missed chance. On the other side of the bracket, the wild card Patriots went into Oakland and won; that means New England went to Miami for the AFC Championship that year. However - if we would have held on to beat Miami, the Browns - a division winner at 8-8 - would have hosted the Patriots in the AFC Championship. That would have generated all time low ratings for NBC.

(And what if we would have beat the Patriots? We would have faced the '85 bears in the Super Bowl. The 8-8 Browns vs. the Super Bowl Shuffle Bears. Line on that game? 26.5 ?)

Anyway, on to the games; I promise not to do these flashbacks in chronological order.......

Ten 28, Det 27. I think Minnesota's defense is excellent, which explains how Tennessee was shut down last week. And Detroit benefitted from a horrid Indy secondary.

NO 31, NYG 27. If you can only score 20 points against the Cowboys, maybe the offense is not ready to light it up. The Saints' offense is exquisite.

Car 20, SF 13. I just have a feeling that Cam is not 100% and they are not exactly sure what they want to do on offense. I don't see them lighting up the field with points just yet - which means it should be a relatively close game.

Pit 23, Cin 20. Oh God, if the Steelers win, I'll be sick. On the other hand, if the Bengals win, then work will be hell for a few days......

NE 24, Mia 17.  I am impressed with Miami's D, yes. But I'm sure Belicheck is hearing all this "Miami owns the Patriots" talk and will do enough to get a win here.

Was 31, Dal 24. So many missed, wide open receivers on Monday night for the Skins. I think they will cash in possessions for TDs instead of FGs and we will have a shootout.

Hou 23, KC 16. A good defense like Houston should be able to shut down a run-first offense like KC. I know I am banking on Osweiler here; I think he will come through at home.

Sea 20, LA 16.  This screams of a trap game. Seattle looked awful against a good D line last week - and I think that's the only strength of the Rams. But can LA even score 10 points?

Az 30, TB 24.  It would not surprise me if the Bucs won here, but the desperation of the Cardinals should pull them through. They sleepwalked through the Pats game; they need to understand they have to do more than just show up.

Oak 33, Atl 20. I have put my order in for a Fathead of Derek Carr for my basement.....I like this offense, at home vs. a Falcons team that has a lot of questions on defense.

Jax 24, SD 23. This game could go either way. I should realize that there will be no after effects of the Chargers' blown loss to the Chiefs, but that Allen injury really hurts their O.

Den 27, Ind 20. Can Trevor Simien take advantage of the horrible Indy secondary? I'm saying no - they will win, but it won't be the blowout everyone expects.

GB 20, Min 19. I just don't think the Vikes have enough offense yet to hang with Green Bay.

Chi 24, Phi 13. Oh, you beat the Browns in week 1? Great job! That means nothing. Carson Wentz will fall back to earth here, as I think John Fox will have more in store for him than the putrid Browns D.

Best bets: 12 of them. Last week: 10-3-1
Ten +6
Ten/Det over 47.5
NO +4
SF +13
SF/Car under 45
Was -3
Dal/Was over 45.5
Hou -2.5
KC/Hou under 43
Oak -4.5
Jax +3
Chi -3

Eric's supercontest bets: Last week: 3-2
NO +4.5
Hou -3
Ten +6
Chi -3.5
Oak -5

Combined Supercontest entry: Last week: 3-2
NO +4.5
Hou -3
SD -3
Az -7
Chi -3.5

NFL Week 1: January 4, 1981

Welcome back! It's time for week 1 of the NFL season and the weekly themed picks! I struggled to come up with a theme this year for the picks - I was close to giving you 17 small biographies of mediocre 1980s golfers such as Wayne Levi and Bob Gilder - until Layup hit upon an idea. Why not celebrate the Cavs victory ending the Cleveland curse?

Good idea - but my concern was - were there enough painful losses in my memory to support 17 weeks? I really had to work to come up with only 17...I had about 94 to choose from....

Before this summer, I was thinking the closest I would ever get to a pro championship would be the 1983 Orioles...that was the first / second year we moved to Baltimore, and our social studies teacher had the magic # listed every day in the fall and would make a big deal of changing it in front of the class. But then I fell out of love with the Orioles and embraced my Cleveland roots....and I thought I was destined to never see a victory parade.

Had a great time this summer at the parade; I took Freddie up, spent the day with Kermit; met Steve at work, and even caught a Tribe game. It really was a great experience.....something that had never occurred in the city for 52 years, and to be a part of it when it finally happened was amazing.

I will freely admit, the Cavs fall 3rd in my personal sports pecking order. If I had my choice on which team I would want to have a championship, my personal order is this - with clear separation between the 3 teams:

1. Browns
2. Indians
3. Cavaliers

(and, if we expand to other teams I root for:
4. Blue Jackets
5. Capitals
6. U of Maryland
7. Sacramento Kings
8. Ohio State....as a taxpayer of Ohio, I think I am legally required to root for the Buckeyes )

Anyway- I'm not complaining. I finally got my wish of a championship and a downtown parade. However, a parade in June under 85 degree sunny skies is a nice party; can you imagine 1.5 million people downtown in February in a snowstorm if, somehow, this Browns leadership brings home a title in 3-5 years?????)

Now on to the catharsis....our first painful sports memory brings us to Lansing, Michigan, and a random bowling alley on the east side of town. I was one week away from turning 9 at the time. The Browns 1980 season was a magical one; the team was called the Kardiac Kids for their ability to pull out last minute wins (and a spectacular last minute loss on a Hail Mary to Minnesota, where Ahmad Rashad caught a 50 yard pass to win at the buzzer).

This team was special; the brown jerseys and the orange pants were classic. Brian Sipe was our QB; Ozzie was in his prime, and we had the Pruitts as our running back. Lyle Alzado anchored the defense. We finished 11-5 and won the division (for the first time in 6 years, I think). The division win gave us a bye and a first round home playoff game against Oakland. It was a freezing day, with the actual temperature being 4 degrees.

I was in 3rd grade at the time, and just starting to get into sports; there was a pencil machine at our school that spit out pencils for 5 cents, and it had all 28 teams on it. I really wanted the Browns pencil...but kept getting the damn Tampa Bay one.  A lot of my friends were Lions fans, and the Lions were doing good with Eric Hipple (remember him?) as QB. My first jersey that I remember was a Sipe jersey I wore to school.

Lansing was an interesting city for sports at that time; the local hero was a basketball star at Michigan St. named Earvin Johnson; he somehow sponsored a local dairy store named Quality Dairy. I think he just graduated and got drafted by the Lakers, so this was all legal. I remember we had 5-8 Magic Johnson Quality Dairy frisbees around the house. (there's no truth to the rumor that I starred in this 1980 commercial......)

Anyway, all of us went bowling that day and we watched the game at the bowling alley. The game went back and forth; our kicking game was not good; Cockroft (our K) missed 2 field goals and we had an extra point blocked. We were down 14-12 with under a minute remaining, and we were driving - we were at the Raiders 13 with 49 seconds left.

Now what to do? Coach Rutligiano called for Sipe to pass the ball to the left corner of the end zone. And this is a quote: "If he's not open, throw it into Lake Erie". Sipe took the snap, looked left - saw Ozzie in the endzone, and threw it---- problem is, the throw wasn't good and Ozzie was well covered. Mike Haynes intercepted it and the Raiders ran out the clock.

I was devastated. I could not believe the Browns actually lost. the announcers told me they pulled out games at the last minute all season - and I thought it was certain to happen again! Why did he throw it? Why not kick a field goal? It is the first time I remember crying while watching a sporting event.

So many factors went into the decision for this play...the weather was the big one, of course; Cockroft said later he was not at 100% and a 30 yard field goal was no sure thing at that time. There's a lot of variables to consider; this play was discussed at length in a undergraduate statistics class I had at Case. The question was - given the background and situation, what play gave the highest expected value - the pass, a run or a kneel down for a field goal? With the assumptions made, it was clear that the pass was the highest expected value play call at the time.

(This was my first exposure to being on the "right side", but not the winning side. That stats class gave me a lot of good background for future sports gambling.....)
(Now I am going to have to waste time to find that textbook in the basement).

Anyway....this play/season was the start of my painful Cleveland experiences. Every fan over the age of 40 or so knows what Red Right 88 is - the name of that pass to the left side of the end zone.

(Oh - where was Layup? Not sure...but I do remember driving back from the bowling alley a few times trying to help him count to 20....he always managed to skip 13 or 15 ......)

On to the week 1 games!

TB 31, Atl 24.  I am convinced Winston will make the leap this year and Tampa will be decent. Mike Smith will be motivated to beat his former team. What other weapons do the Falcons have besides Jones?

Bal 20, Buf 16.   A healthy Baltimore team should be back to an 8-8, 9-7 team and have enough to beat the overrated Bills. I just don't think Buffalo is that good.

Hou 24, Chi 17. Not convinced of Osweiler, but the D should handle the Bears - who already have injury problems on the line.

GB 34, Jax 20. The Packers are healthy - and when they are, their offense is almost unstoppable. I can't see the Jags holding them under 30 - and I don't see them getting to 30 with Bortles just yet.

KC 23, SD 20. A lot closer than people expect. I think the Chargers will move the ball and keep it close, and I'm not convinced the Chiefs can blow them out right now with the players they have missing on D.

NO 31, Oak 28. Yes, I know, a popular pick for a shootout - which means this will be a 14-13 final. God bless David Carr!

NYJ 20, Cin 16. I have faith that Revis can contain A J Green --- and then what does Cincinnati have? The Jets have a solid run D, Eifert is out....so how is Cincinnati going to move the ball? a good matchup here for the Jets.

Min 20, Ten 13. Boy, a leap of faith here on this one. I think the Vikings will rally and do just enough to win.

Sea 27, Mia 14. Maybe this is a bit lazy.....I am concerned about the Sea OL handling Miami, but I can't see Miami movign the ball all that much.

NYG 28, Dal 23. You have a rookie QB and a rookie RB starting for Dallas? I'm sorry, I know Zeke may be good - but we have no idea how Prescott looks. None. Don't tell me "oh, he was great in the preseason!" No. I've seen so many "good" performances in my preseasons and none panned out. The Giants should figure our some defensive scheme to force mistakes.

Det 28, Ind 20. The Lions match up well with the Colts - good secondary - and they have fixed their OL a bit and should be able to move the ball.

Az 31, NE 20. If Belicheck can win this game,..........it will be interesting to see how well Jimmy can do against a good D.

Was 27, Pit 24. A good matchup for the Skins. They will rely heavily on the pass, which is the Steelers' weakness; Defensively, they can manage Pit's run game and hope Norman can contain Brown.

SF 19, LA 16. Am I missing something here? I think LA can go 4-12 or worse.

Best bets: 14 of them.
TB +2.5
Buf/Bal under 44.5
GB -4.5
SD +6.5
Oak/NO over 52
NYJ +1.5
Min -2.5
Min/Ten under 40
NYG pk
Det +3.5
NE/Arz over 44
Was +3
SF +2.5
LA/SF under 42.5

My personal supercontest picks:
Det +3.5
SF +2.5
TB +2.5
Was +3
NYG -1.5

We are putting in a join entry into the real Supercontest. Here is the joint entry:
Car -3 (Loss....thanks, Wiz)
Bal -3
Atl -2.5
Det +3.5
SF +2.5

It's time for NFL 2016!

Who's ready for week 1? I am starting to get excited...I know this year will be a long one for the Browns, but I'm ready to watch RG3 and Josh Gordon (with Corey Coleman) put on some offensive fireworks.

(Oh, we have to play defense too?)

Before we get started on the picks, let's do some housekeeping to see our record for our world-renown NFL weekly picks.....

For the last 3 years, here are the results:

2013: 127-122-6
2014: 109-127-4  (may have been slightly distracted with a move across the world)
2015: 123-100-8

Overall 9 year record:  1234-1143-69, a record of 51.9%...just shy of the magical 52.3% needed.

For the supercontest:

2013: 43-38-4
2014: 43-41-1
2015: 44-40-1

Overall 5 year record: 211-202-12, 51.1% . Not great....

Even though we are sharing a supercontest entry this year, I will post my 5 picks for comparison. Would love to set a small goal and break 45 points this year.

Now - to the fun! Our annual look back on network opening segments for NFL games. Let's go back to recent history, for one of the first years that FOX covered the NFL...here's an open from 1996 with the immortal Dick Stockton. Please remember: Dick looks old in 1996 - and he is doing a play by play game this weekend in 2016!!! Got to love the intern that thought the jigsaw puzzle symbolism would work.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4SVNR7PFDk

Shifting to CBS...I loved this theme. I still think the late-90s CBS theme is the best. These opens were so cheesy.....a 1999 open from a Ravens game satirizing the Blair Witch project. How do you explain this to kids? I'll let you be surpirsed on the play by play announcer. Yes, we miss him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4SVNR7PFDk

And now for one of the worst NFL open themes in my life...the early 90s music for NBC. How vanilla and boring. This was the last playoff game I truly thought we could win. What a quarterback battle!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bX9GLtpYyWk