NFL Week 14: Let's Make a Deal

It's time for the All New Let's Make a Deal, starring TV's big dealer, Monty Hall!


It's time to review one of the classics - Let's Make a Deal! I have a lot of fondness for this show - especially the 1980s version with Monty Hall - which I think everyone in our age group thinks of when someone refers to the show.

Who doesn't know the basics here? There are a bunch of contestants in the studio audience (36 of them, we learned) that Monty randomly chooses to participate in small games and deals. For instance: here is a small stack of bills - the top and bottom bills are $1 bills. There could be anything else in between. Would you like to keep your stack, or trade it in for door #1?

That's an example of a simple deal. Other deals become more complex; it could be a game between two contestants (such as a grocery pricing game, or trivia, etc.) - and Monty would take turns offering the "deals" between the two contestants - and zero, one, or both of them could take the offer.

What's the risk? Of course, sometimes the "deal" offered was a ZONK. The "prize" behind a curtain could be a big wheel....or a llama...or sheep.....or a stick and some sheets that can be considered luggage. This usually is chosen after the contestant turns down $2000 in cash or something.

At the end of the game, the two highest winners from the day are chosen to play in the "Super Deal" for a large prize package (usually around $8-10,000, in the 1980s!). Sometimes contestants will refuse to play and keep their prize, so Monty goes down the list of the winners to find 2 people that will play. They each take a curtain (one out of 3) to trade in their winnings for a curtain; hopefully one of them will pick the big deal....

Simple, right? Of course. But let me digress on so many notes/tangents on this show:

1. What's the deal with the costumes? All of the contestants are wearing wacko costumes on the "trading floor". How did that start? This show started in the 1960s, and back then, everyone wore formal wear as a contestant (suits and dresses). One show, a lady brought in a sign for Monty, asking him to pick her; he noticed the sign and did pick her! Soon after, another lady wore a fancy hat in order to be noticed; she was and was picked! It snowballed from here.

2. One of the more famous modern statistical problems shared in college classes - and no, I am not joking - is the Monty Hall problem. I remember hearing about this in my undergrad statistics classes in college. The problem is similar to the End game; you have 3 curtains, 1 curtain has a car, 2 others are zonks. You pick a curtain (say, curtain #1). Monty shows you curtain #2 - and it is a zonk.

The question is - should you trade curtains if offered (and change to curtain #3)?

The answer is yes - Marilyn Vos Savant (from the Weekly "Parade" magazine) answered this in 1990 and was immediately (and incorrectly!) berated by professors. I won't go into the solution here, but it is intuitive if you think about it a while. Here's the explanation for more details:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

3. While the closing credits roll, Monty goes around the contestants for mini deals - "quickies" - asking random contestants for household items. "Do you have a fork? I'll give you $50 for a fork". Or a passport. Or a Canadian coin. I think half of the people had a huge hand bag full of junk just for this eventuality.

4. One of my high school memories (or maybe it was middle school - it was 1985) was having a sub for a class; we were supposed to watch a movie but we couldn't get the VCR to work. We then convinced her to turn the TV to Channel 11 to watch "Let's Make a Deal". It was educational!
After about 5 minutes, the sub - Mrs. Grauer, I think - was puzzled. Why are they in costumes? What's going on? I don't think Mrs. Grauer was a big fan of game shows.

5. The show introduced door #4 in the 80s - where a big wheel came out to "randomly" select a contestant to spin a wheel for cash and prizes. A random number generator picked a number from 1 to 36 to pick a contestant to play. I think they had to do this since it seemed that the contestants picked for the main game play were never random.

I haven't watched the revival of Let's Make a Deal with Wayne Grady - so I can't comment on how well the new show matches up with the classics. However, in my mind, Monty Hall will
always be Mr. Let's Make a Deal. The perfect host for this show.

Anyway - we are getting to the point here where we have to play Lets Make a Deal with Johnny. We've got 4 games to determine whether we stay with door #1 - Johnny - or take Door #2 - Jared Goff? Colin Kaepernick? I feel like we will have llamas behind any door we choose.

On to the games:

Car 23, Atl 13. Yes, the Falcons are falling apart, but I don't know if the Panthers have the motivation to crush them.

Chi 27, Was 17. Completely shocked at how flat the Skins were last week. Fox will dial up the same defense for Washington.

Cin 26, Pit 23. Should be a great game; I have Big Ben going for me in the playoffs so I need a great game here.

Ind 27, Jax 24.  The Jags D is horrendous; Indy can pass and take advantage of it. Hasselbeck will recoup and give the Colts the win.

KC 27, SD 23. San Diego is better on teh road now rather than at home to get away from the distractions.

NYJ 26, Ten 13. Not sure I see how Tennessee will score 14+ points vs. this defense, as they are so one-dimensional.

Buf 24, Phi 20. 21 points by the Eagles last week were on returns. I'm not ready to say they are back.

StL 20, Det 13. One last good effort by the Rams. No logic behind this pick.

TB 30, NO 17. The Saints played their Super Bowl last week, and the Bucs are making a charge to theplayoffs - not a perfect team, but getting better.

Sea 27, Bal 10. Jimmy Clausen again?

Den 24, Oak 20. Not sure if Denver can score enough to cover this spread.

GB 22, Dal 20. Maybe this is too high of a score prediction. How does each team score points here?

NE 24, Hou 21. Facinating game. I think Belicheck's history with Hoyer will make the difference here.

NYG 27, Mia 16. The Dolphins are crap. Time for me to get another Monday night game wrong.

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 9-7; overall: 93-80-6
Atl/Car under 46.5
Chi -3.5
Ind +1.5
Ind/Jax over 46
SD +10.5
KC/SD over 44
NYJ -7
Ten/NYJ under 43
Buf +1
StL +3.5
Det/StL under 41
TB -4.5
Dal +6.5
NYG +2

Supercontest: Last week: 2-3; overall: 31-33-1
Chi -3
TB -4
Ind pk
Sea -6.5 (stale line)
NYG -1