Week 8: The Parlay

 

Heading into 2013, we made a decision to switch the week of the trip. Vegas was getting too crazy for the opening week of the tournament.  Too many young kids clogging up the sportsbook and impacting our table play.  We made a decision to go during conference tournament week as it provided more games to bet and should be less packed.   This was also the start of us drifting away from craps.  Eric was concerned that we were going to get into a rut with these trips and for this one we had some great stories.  It started off poorly with Eric missing his connection at LAX and having to take a United flight to get to Vegas and Wiz and I having to wait for our rooms for so long they put us up in another suite, where Eric and I had to share a bed.  It soon turned into fun times as we had our first bowling contest at Red Rocks, the golden ticket 24 course dinner in the back room of Jose Andres’ restaurant, having Kid N Play save us all at the craps table with a hot run, some crazy action in the salon, and a round of golf at Spanish Trails.  This course is an average course that gets a lot of play.  This is where we played golf with the creator of UTH who sold his company for an insane amount of money and is retired in Vegas.  I was getting a ton of strokes and played the best front 9 of my life before returning to my normal play.  And this was the location of one of the greatest sports gambling stories from our trip.   

 

We get to the course – Spanish Trail – and check in at the clubhouse. We were there as guests of a Shufflemaster executive, register at the pro shop and expect to pay the greens fees.

“Yes, guys, you will be teeing off in 30 minutes. The rate is $59”.

There’s dead silence for all of us for a good 15 seconds.

“Did you want me to double that rate for you?”

We were all stunned at the low cost for the round. Yesterday’s round at Southern Highlands was $400 – and everyone agrees it was worth every penny. Now here we are at a private club paying one-sixth that.

The golf was horrible; I was in no shape to stabilize my body on the lack of sleep; the whole round was spent sliding all over the place during the swing. I did birdie 18 after hitting driver off the deck on the tee box – it was the only way I knew where the ball was going.

 The drama, however, was with the parlay. My pick was Tennessee -1.5 vs Alabama. I have faith in Cuonzo Martin! The picture of the entire ticket is at right. (and, just for history’s sake, here’s a link to the scoreboard that day….)

On the 5^th green, the finals from the Indiana (Don) and St Louis (Layup) game came in about at the same time; we were 2-0. By the 8^th hole, NC State (Wiz) was well on top and cruising; Wisconsin (Leland) was hanging tough with Michigan. On the 10^th tee, my game was tipping off; Mike’s game – Southern Miss – would not start until about the 14^th hole.

On the 11^th hole – the NC State game went final. 3-0.

On the 14^th – The Wisconsin game went final – that’s 4-0.

My game was at halftime, with Tennessee losing; the last 4 holes with most of us watching the phones. Wiz started texting me “Roll Tide” messages and yelling it from the group behind. On the 16^th hole, Tennessee made a run to close it within 4…..

….and never got closer. 4-1. At that time, Southern Miss got out to a 15 point lead.

We had lunch at the club house (where we declined – declined! – a free round of drinks from John Esposito, only one of the 10 most famous gamblers in Vegas) watching the rest of the Southern Miss game – and my fate was sealed. I was paying for dinner that night. Everyone in the group wished we would have split the $4800 – except Wiz, of course.

Now I was pissed. An evening massage helped; and Lavo was the dinner that night – so at least I knew I would get a good meal out of it. The staple courses at Lavo: the giant Kobe bef meatball; Chicken Parmiagian, and (of course) the deep fried Oreos.

Eric was so upset about this which made it all the funnier.  He couldn’t wrap his head around why Wiz would be rooting against the parlay.  I remember cringing on those text messages to Eric while we were playing and the two guys that were playing with us were so confused but thought it was hilarious with what Wiz was doing.  Eric definitely got off so easy at dinner, with only footing a $300 bill as we picked up the wine and cocktails.  I’m sure we will get to what happened to me, SEVERAL TIMES, in these parlays that explains why I get so pissed at the end result. 

 

Onto the games:  Theme this week is stay away.   Vegas needs to get right after losing the last two weeks.  Lot’s of weird lines. 

 

GB @ AZ -7:  Stayed away for this game. 

Pit @ Browns -3.5:  Very excited for this game.  I’d prefer Keenum to start. Looks like Chubb is healthy.  Will be taking the Browns ML in this one.

Dolphins @ Bills -13.5:  I really want to take the Dolphins here, but its on the road and the Bills own them right now.  Will stay away.

Panthers @ Falcons -3: Both of these teams shouldn’t be favored.

Bengals @ Jets +10.5:  Is there really a drop off between the Jets QBs?  Think this is a let down for the Bengals after their biggest win in the last 5 years.

Titans @ Colts -1 :  Biggest bet of the year here.  This line opened with the Colts as a dog and now they are favored.  Got in early on the Colts. 

49ers @ Bears +4 : Loved the Bears before hearing the news on Mack and Hicks.  Still think they will win at home.

Eagles @ Lions +3.5: This seems like a trap.  Will I be forced to take the Lions for the second straight week?   

Rams @ Texans +14.5:  Mills is starting still, so I’m going to stay away on this one.

Pats @ Chargers -6: Who have the Pats beaten?  Jets twice and the Texans.  The Pats aren’t that good, especially on the road.  I’ll take the Chargers

Jaguars @ Seahawks -3.5:  Only 3.5?  Seems like such a trap, but I can’t help it.  Will be taking the Seahawks with the Browns in a ML parlay

Bucs @ Saints +5.5:  I absolutely love the Saints in this spot. 

Skins @ Broncos -3:  I don’t like the Broncos favored in any game, but its so obvious that

Cowboys @ Vikings +1.5 :  Money is coming in heavily on the Vikings with this line now at Vikings -3.  Makes me a little nervous on liking the Vikings early this week.     

Giants @ Chiefs -9.5: Why do the Chiefs continue to get such respect.  They looked horrible this year. Something is off.  I’ll take the points in this one.

 

Best Bets 46-52-1

 

Jets

Colts

Bears

Chargers

Seahawks

Saints

Skins

Vikings

Giants

 

Supercontest: 13-20-2

 

Vikings

Colts

Saints

Seahawks

Chargers

 

NFL Week 7: A trip to downtown

 

We really started to hit a consistent stride in 2012 with our Vegas trips.  After deciding on staying at the Mirage, we had a great core group, after losing Jay/Laura to having kids and lost Micah due to the wedding ring incident.  These were fun times as we still hadn’t switched fully to UTH and played a ton of craps.  On this trip I think most of us learned how to play Pai Gow Tiles which was always a fun transition.  Eric was still over in China so sleep was a concern along with his funny interactions with the Asian Dealers. Didn’t take him long to realize that not every Asian dealer was from China.  Lee had to remind him that some of them were from “The Big K”.   Also it seemed like everyone switched over to a credit system with the Mirage, resulting in a couple of hilarious stories like the walk of shame and Eric’s debacle at the craps table were he went over his limit and had to give back money during a roll.   On this trip, we had an amazing trip to downtown.  This started another tradition that Wiz and I have kept up since, but Eric does a great job recapping the afternoon session downtown.  And this is probably the drunkest I’ve seen him ever.   

 

We meet at the Nugget, see our annual partner in Dick (who we never saw again after the first 20 minutes), and head to a completely empty downtown scene. It was weird to see the main area of the downtown casinos before noon in pure sunlight. It looked like a suburban shopping plaza on a tuesday mid-day.

Ira decides to jump start the fun in the group by getting us all a slushie - a  flavored frozen alcoholic drink in a yard-long test tube. There are reports that some of the drinks may have had extra Everclear in them. (Noooo!)

We are holding our yard tubes walking around the barren downtime trying to find an empty craps table - and we find one at the fabulous "Las Vegas Club" casino. We walk up to the empty half table - the six of us in order (Ira, me, Mike, Wiz, Leland and Layup) plop our money down. The dealer on our side was at least - at least!- 80 years old. He valiantly tried to stay with us as we threw our money on the table and starting making bets, but couldn't. Once we got our chips, it was taking him about 2 minutes between throws to take care of the place bets, come bets, and keeping the hardways straight. The boxman, of course, knew that this (we?) was a disaster to happen, so after the required 20 minutes, he was quickly told to work at the other craps table in the casino - and we never saw him again.

We played craps for a good 2 hours, storing our tubes below the table (how none of us spilled a drink, I'll never know), with a moderate loss for all of us (I'm estimating). Some memories:
- Layup and Wiz having a contest to see who could finish the drink first; Mike and I wanted no part of that, so we created our own "B" flight competition for finishing the drink;
- At random times, Ira was convinced that a 9 was going to be rolled; he suggested to me that we should hop the 9. He put $5 on the 4-5 hop. I asked him "What about the 3-6?"
He said "No one rolls the 3-6".
So that started a mini competition betweenus the whole trip; every time a 4-5 was rolled, I paid him $5; when a 3-6 came up, I received $5. I always got out to an early lead each craps session, but as the session wore on, the 3-6's disappeared and so did my red chips.
- Great adventures in line setting; the Price is Right was on the TV near the craps table - the annoucner told us that the "Showcase Showdown" was coming up!
So I offered the table the over/under on the winning score - 90.5 was the line.

All the suckers (Layup, Wiz, Ira) took the under.....and when the second spinner spun a 95, I was the richer one.

(Looking back, a better line would have been 87.5. I may have to write into Wizard of odds for this one).

- I had Norfolk State +21.5 over Missouri; the game was on another TV while we were rolling. We caught glances of the game in the 1st half, when it was close; as the game wore on, and Norfolk stayed close, we were more and more interested. A new chant was made in support of the Spartans:
"We don't drink.....We don't smoke....Norfolk!"
Yes, it was funny after 3/4 of the yard was gone.

After we were done with craps, it was time for lunch - and what better food than sliders and fried twinkies! I have to say, the fried twinkie was better than the Fried Oreos of the night before. The complete meal for $1.98!

The alcohol caught up to me, and I don't exactly remember how I got back to the Mirage; Mike, Ira and I took a taxi while Layup, Leland and Wiz split away from us. I asked Mike about the taxi trip and he said that I was asking about Ira's connection to Wiz. It may have come out as "So, Ira, how do you know Wiz? Did you hire that ass, or did he become an ass after working for a while?"

 

Yes the alcohol did catch up to him.  Lee responded to this post by reminding Eric that he wasn’t even with us during this time as he went to go work out and only met up with Wiz and I afterwards.  Hilarious.

 

Heading into Week 7 and things have taken a big turn for the worse.

 

Broncos @ Browns -2:  Had this game.  Great showing by the Browns.

Chiefs 42 @ Titans 28 +5.5:  Who is stopping who?   Like the Chiefs in a big shoot out.

Jets 10 @ Pats 24 -7:   Pats own the Jets.  I think this will be a blood bath. 

Panthers 17 @ Giants 21 +3:  How many times will I take the Panthers.  I always have one team that I can’t quit each year.  This is the Panthers.  Ugh.  I’m staying away from this game.

Bengals 21 @ Ravens 31 -6.5:  Ravens are on a roll right now and I’m not getting in the way of this one.  And what a huge coaching difference here.

Falcons 19 @ Dolphins 20 +2.5:  Would love to the take the fish here, but all this news about Tua is concerning.  

Skins 23 @ Packers 31 -8.5:  Confused as to why this line is dropping from 9.5 to 7!!!!!  Skins are done. There is no life. 

Eagles 24 @ Raiders 21-3: Loved the Raiders last week after Gruden was let go. Thought it was a perfect spot.  Eagles are good and I think they win outright.

Lions 14 @ Rams 28 -15:  Huge line, with a really bad team that is still wanting to be competitive.  Double revenge game with Stafford and Goff.   Think that they will cover this.  

Bears 10 @ Bucs 26-12.5: Another huge line which makes me scared, but what the Bucs are great matches up perfectly against the Bears.   Don’t think this will be close.

Texans 16 @ Cardinals 33 -18.5: Not sure what the motivation will be here for such a huge line. And big match up for them on Thursday night.

Colts 17  @ 49ers 27 -4:  Like the 49ers here with a week off. 

Saints 16 @ Seahawks 26 +4.5:  Love Seattle in a must win situation at home.

 

Best Bets 40-48-1

Ravens

Carolina Under

Chiefs

Patriots

Eagles

49ers

Seahawks

Lions

Texans

Dolphins

 

Supercontest 11-17-2

Ravens

Chiefs

Eagles

Seahawks

Patriots

Week 6- Lack of Sleep

 

2011 began Eric’s 4 year stint over in China.  His commitment on still making the trek back to Vegas was still very high.  I would typically pick him up at LAX and then make drive out with Eric acting like a zombie because he can’t sleep on flights.  He would always doze off for like 1-2 minutes and wake up thinking he was asleep for hours, expecting us to be almost to Vegas.  While the trips to Vegas were always a struggle, I loved driving him back to Vegas on that Sunday. This was typically when they made the selections for the tournament and we would spend the entire trip either predicting the seeds or making fun of John Thompson, who for some reason was always the commentator on the announcement shows on AM radio. 

 

And then there were the trips to Target, Walmart, and other random places to pick up supplies for the family.  So many times we would clear out all the children’s medicine at multiple stores.  Having a shopping cart full of this stuff was always entertaining.  And I loved watching Eric get so mad about trying to pack all this crap up on Sunday. 

 

Anyway, this was the year that we started to do group parlays for basketball.  Everyone would chip in $20 and pick one team and Eric would put in a parlay.  The payoffs would be pretty high.  We also had a penalty that if you were the only one that picked a loser, you had to pay for dinner.  Below is Eric’s story on his innocent mistake.  This was anything but innocent.   

 

 

Before the craps run, I placed my bets for the late afternoon games. I was doing well, and - for whatever reason - put in a few wacko bets for the afternoon. I don't like the Big East at all, so for no reason I took Florida State. I wanted to play a parlay as well, so I said "what the hell" and put in a $50 money-line parlay on VCU and Florida St. That means both of those underdogs have to win for me to get a nice 13-to-1 payout.

Anyway, before the Kansas game, the four of us got together to put in a group parlay for the two late games, Kansas-Illinois and Fla St-Notre Dame. We each would pick a side or total for a 4-way parlay.

Wiz took the Fla St under.
Layup took Kansas -8.
It was my turn. I had no feeling whatsoever on the Kansas over/under, so it was up to the Notre Dame/Fla St game, with ND giving 5.

I really didn't want to drag everyone down with me on the Floridat State flyer. And it was a flyer! There was no reasoning at all for me to pick them earlier in the day - it was just because I hated the Big East!

So I chose Notre Dame -5. Leland took the Kansas under. We put $25 down each to win a total of $1100 if all 4 came through.

Well, the Kansas game ended up 73-55 or so, so we were 2-0 for that game. It was down to the final game of the night, Fla St-ND.

Now, VCU was the upset of the day, and they beat Purdue, so now my underdog parlay to win $650 is live. And Florida State got out to a big early lead, shutting down Notre Dame....and the under was looking good....

Layup asked me what I have left for my betting slips. I showed him the Fla St bet and the live parlay.

He was a bit confused. "What did you do?"

Well, I don't really like the Florida State bet, I stammered.

"You hedged against us!"

No! That's not it at all!

I was really waiting for Sean Connery to show up.....in that scene from Entrapment, when he realizes that Catherine Zeta-Jones is a double agent...

"YOU'RE PLAYING BOTH SIDES!!!!!"

No! I protested. I just didn't want to take you down on a losing Florida State bet.......

Florida State, of course, won by 19 in another big upset; the under covered as well. I collected my Fla St straight bet, my VCU-Fla St parlay, and we lost the group parlay because of my pick........

Dinner that night was a bit cold as we watched the end of the game.

 

 Onto the games. 

 

Bucs at Eagles: Love the eagles here.  And boy what an amazing backdoor cover.

Dolphins at Jaguars:  Are we sure the right team is favored here?  I was high on the Dolphins earlier, but I’ve watched enough.

Rams at Giants:  Giants playing with their second string offense.  

Texans at Colts:  Colts have to be gutted after that Monday night loss.  Looking for some good effort from the Texans

Chiefs at Skins:  I don’t trust the Chiefs anymore.

Vikings at Carolina:  Vikings favored on the road? I’ll fade them again and again. 

Chargers at Ravens:  How are the Ravens giving less than 3 at home.  Chargers D is improved, but so is the Ravens offense. 

Bengals at Lions:  Think there is value on the Bengals on the road here.  I know the Lions are such a great story and they are fun to watch, but I think the Bengals will take care of business here.

Packers at Bears:  Packers still don’t seem right.   

Cards at Browns: This should be an amazing game.  Seems like everyone is injured on each side.  I’ll take the better O line

Cowboys at Pats:  I know that the Pats seem like the sharp play here.  O-line is back for them, but something is wrong with their D.  But I don’t see them keeping up with the Cowboys.

Raiders at Broncos:  Should have maximum effort by the Raiders here with Gruden gone. 

Seahawks at Steelers: I honestly don’t know who is worse, Big Ben or Geno.  Must win game for the Seahawks in a classic spot where the Steelers tend to fall short, but there are too many holes for the Seahawks and am I really going to take Geno on the road?  

Bills at Titans:  Everything that the Bills do well, the Titans suck at.  I’m not getting in front of this Bills train just yet.

 

Best Bets: Was doing so well and then got destroyed last week.  (34-38-1)

Eagles

Texans

Skins

Skins Over

Carolina

Ravens

Ravens over

Bengals

Bears

Browns

Cowboys

Raiders

Steelers

Bills

Bills Over

 

Supercontest 9-14-2

Bears

Panthers

Browns

Raiders

NFL Week 5: Nothing up Top

 

The 2010 Vegas trip started our 11 year stint at the Mirage.  For some reason it feels like its been longer.  Maybe its because during the next 4-5 years I was coming out to Vegas at least every other month. Going through the posts for 2010 this is when everyone other than Eric stopped blogging (except about Vegas) and this was Eric’s last trip to Vegas before heading off to China.  I did find this one gem from Eric on his first post Vegas blog:

 

What's the point of the diaries? Well, I think it's 30% to have others fill in hazy details from the trip, 20% to make sure all hilarity and craziness is documented, and 50% for entertainment in the future, when you re-read this diary 2, 3, 4 years from now or later.

 

Or 11 years later. Eric used to tell me that he would review all of the old posts about Vegas before heading on out and that would get him pumped. I’m so happy we did these posts, because he kept documentation about everything in his notebooks but most are completely illegible.  Its been helpful to go back and read these as well as his NFL pickem posts to keep his memories alive.  

 

Anyway, this trip was full of action.  Eric’s first male massage, Don brought out the UTH card and introduced it to all of us, we had a UTH 12 hour telethon, intro to BJ switch, Show me the Shot Clock line from Jay, the last time I played serious BJ on the floor, $5 Blue Jacket tickets for everyone, the infamous Sahara craps roll with Jay, Laura, Dick, and I, and this hilarious story:

 

Well, by now, the disaster of the UTH table was long forgotten, my big sports bets (why Leland and I didn't go 4 digits on Kentucky -9 vs Wake? )were coming in, and I was feeling pretty good after 14 Strawberry Daiquiris at the UTH table and 5 Tom Collinses (yes, this drink made a comeback this trip!) at the craps table. On to Pai Gow. It was 7 pm or so, I only had that turkey sandwich all day, and I was getting a bit drunk. In Pai Gow, if you have a good bottom hand - like a flush or a straight - your top 2 cards are usually going to suck. Many players call this being "topless".

 Well, I decided to act this out. I got a heart flush on the bottom and 5-3 up top. I turned to Leland and Jay to my right.

 "You know what my top hand is?"

 No, they answered.

 I lifted up my shirt. "Topless!"

As Jay said, there are things he can't unsee.

Well, I thought I was hilarious that first time, so I repeated it at least 6 more times. I thought it was just as funny as the first - I'm sure Leland and Jay did not agree. By the 4th time, I started laughing uncontrollably. I couldn't see out of my contacts. I just lost it for a good 2-3 minutes. The waitress hated me, I'm sure the dealer didn't like it, and (most embarrasingly) the guy at the other end of the table - who was betting $1000/hand, sometimes $5000 - did not like it.

Here he is, with a $40,000 stake at the table, and a drunk idiot is giggling and lifting up his shirt. A proud moment for me. There was one other time I completely lost my emotions in Vegas - 2004, shortly after the stressful move to Iowa and I was convinced on this trip that Steve and Kermit were conspiring against me - but that was more of a breakdown. This was just......immaturity.

(And do I regret it? Ummmmmm......no.)

Was there anything better than a drunk Eric?  Onto the picks:

Rams at Seahawks:  I really thought the Seahawks would of pulled this out. Wilson is now out. Not good for my 50-1 Superbowl ticket

Falcons 14 at Jets 28 (+3):  Going back to the cupboard on this one.  Falcons have no WR’s and no running game.  Jets have a solid D and I think can move the ball and will win this game easily. 

Pats 13 at Texans 6 (+9):  Want to fade the Pats here so bad especially with the O line out.  This isn’t your old Pats team.     

Miami 21 At Bucs 24 (+10):  How is this not a letdown game after the Pats.   Miami’s D can keep the Bucs in check and Miami should be able to move the ball against that horrid secondary to keep it close.   

Eagles 10 at Panthers 22 (-3.5): This line is making me scared.  Why isn’t it higher?   Yes the Panthers got rolled on the road against the Cowboys but they are still a playoff team. 

Lions 14 at Vikings 31 (-9.5): Cousins owns the Lions. 

Titans 28 at Jaguars 17 (-4.5): Think this is way too low despite the issues with the Titans.  But the injuries are piling up and Jags

Broncos 14 at Steelers 17 (-1): That bullshit offsides call changed that Steelers Packers game.  Knew it was over when that was called back.   Hope Bridgewater doesn’t get cleared, but even if he does I think we will get the best e

Packers 21 at Bengals 24 (+3):  See above on the Packers.  Burrow can overcome that putrid coach. 

Saints 23  at Skins 24 (+2.5)  Saints offense is broken and the Skins D is broken.  Skins offense is looking solid and Saints D looking great.  I’m staying away

Bears 9 at Raiders 24 (-5.5):  Bears just suck on the road and might have the worst coach. Raiders can score. This should be a blowout

Browns 22 at Chargers 23 (-1.5): Baker is injured?  Chargers riding high after two big divisional wins.  Chargers struggle against the run, and the Browns D is legit. Think the Browns will keep this close

Giants 24 at Cowboys 27 (-7):  Divisional game.  Giants on the road so we know that Danny Dimes will be better.  Think that the Cowboys will win, but it will be tight.

49ers 21 at Cardinals 17 (-5.5):  Divisional game.  Cardinals excel at pass D, but are just average at stopping the run.  Really like the 49ers to win outright.

Bills 28 at Chiefs 31(-2.5):  What would this line be if they didn’t fumble at the Ravens and didn’t screw up in the 4^th qtr against the Chargers?  I like getting less than 3

Colts 10 at Ravens 26 (-7):  Think the Ravens figured something out against the Broncos.  They are at home in primetime and playing a bad team. 

 

Best Bets 32-25-1

 

Pats Under

Saints Under

Broncos Under

Bengals Over

Vikings Over

Bengals

Steelers

Panthers

Dolphins

Jets

Raiders

Giants

49ers

Chiefs

Ravens

Houston

 

 

8-11-1

Ravens

Dolphins

Jets

Bengals

Steelers

NFL Week 4: Block or Charge

In 2009, in the heart of the financial crisis we decided to go back to the Palazzo, which it seemed like it was subpar.  Complaints about the dealers, the players, the pit bosses, the TV’s, and the restaurants were pretty common.  I do remember that they closed down a portion of the casino and had higher limits, so we started to travel over to the Mirage to play cheaper craps and UTH as well.  Its also funny to see that we always complained about the quality of the UTH dealers…even our beloved Gary.  Ha!  Anyway, this trip introduced us to Ira and his pervy older friend Pete, the little blue books, and the Be Be Aggressive saying.  And apparently we ate a Pastrami sandwich underneath a UTH table.

But for this trip, it seemed like it was dominated by craps play.  I clearly remember the below story from Eric on this one craps session that really summarizes our trips out to Vegas: 

Played craps with Wiz again later - and we started to use basketball terminology on our rolls. Wiz was being the coach calling plays ("The Diamond Press") looking for numbers; I would be the ref calling the end result of the roll. If the point was made, I did the "swoosh" of the basket, counting the bucket and giving the foul. Harmless fun.

 

Well, we went to the Mirage later that day to play craps (again). (Wow, that's a lot of craps in one day). This is the scene of the hot roll that Layup talked about - this lady (and, in fact, it started with the guy before her) just hit point after point and point. And we were getting drunker and drunker and drunker. And I was getting more and more emphatic with my calls.

 

On the 5th point made - another hard way - I called the block. I slammed my forearms to my waist 2, 3 times. Thought nothing of it. Another point was made. I did it again - maybe even harder. My fists were now pounding into the front of my stomach. This repeated another 3 or 4 times.  I went up to my room. For some reason, my waist felt sore.

 

I took my shirt off - and uncovered the big welt on my left waist.

 

"How did I get....oh, no way....."

 

It looked even worse the next morning. The picture in the previous blog post was how it looked on Monday afternoon. It still looks bad - although there's no pain whatsoever. It was fun trying to describe this to Janice.

"What happened to you??"

"Well, I got injured"

"Injured how? At the cabana? Golf?"

"Um, no. This is a craps injury."

"How? Did the dice hit you?"

 

Only Eric could injure himself while playing craps.  This was also the start of Eric betting the Horn high ace deuce bets that Ira convinced him to do with him.  Those two playing craps together is just total chaos. 

Onto the games

Jags 17 @ Bengals 24 (-7.5):  Thought the Jags would keep it close.  Bengals coach is just so bad.

Skins 28 @ Falcons 24 (+1) Skins offense is underrated while their defense isn’t that good.  No clue what is going on with the Falcons. Ryan looks old.  But I do think that both teams will put up some points here in a shoot out.

Lions 10 @ Bears 17 (-3)  Everyone is loving the Lions spirit.  Everyone is hating on the Bears.  Lions are not good.    Love this spot for the Bears.

Titans 20 @ 17 Jets (+7)  Titan’s have a bunch injuries and Tannehill doesn’t look right.  Jet’s D playing actually pretty well.  Getting 7 points at home is tasty

Browns 23 @ 28 Vikings (+2) I don’t get this line and its probably a trap.  No way Vikings should be getting points at home against the Browns.  Vikings are a different team at home as we just saw.  Who have the Browns beaten again?   

Colts 14 @ Dolphins 10 (-2.5) Amazing cover by the Dolphins last week, but injuries are piling up on their offensive line.  

Chiefs 28 @ Eagles 13 (+7) No way the Chiefs lose 3 games in a row. They will come out on fire.  The play calling by the Eagles last week was simply horrendous. 

Panthers 24 @ Cowboys 17 (-4.5) Love that I get another week of people undervaluing the Panthers.   Panthers D is legit, plus they added a piece this week against the Cowboys coming off of a primetime game.  Yes I know that I’m taking Darnold on the road   

Giants 21 @ Saints 23 (-7.5) Giants on the road for some reason are a different team on offense.  And I’m waiting on a Winston blow up

Texans 3 @ Bills 21 (-16.5) Such a big spread but without Taylor I don’t see how they will score. 

Cards 20 @ Rams 24 (-4.5) I want to take the Rams here because I just want to keep fading the Cards.  But this is a divisional game and there has to be a let down.  I’m staying away

Seahawks 27 @ 49ers 28 (-3)  Both these teams have subpar D, with strong offenses. Divisional game will be close.  Will take the underdog in a must win game

Ravens 19 @ Broncos 17 (-1) Who have the Broncos played?  Teddy Covers only does that on the road.  Still believing in Harbaugh and that run offense.

Steelers 26 @ Packers 20 (-6.5)  This is the classic Tomlin game.  Big underdogs on the road.   And its against a really bad run D, which will help Big Ben stay out of trouble.  

Bucs 21 @ Pats 10  (+6.5) Who knows.   I guess the Bucs D will shut down the Pats run game. But I’m scared that this is the Pats superbowl.

Raiders 16 @ Chargers 24 (-3.5):  This might be the last week I fade the Raiders.  Not too sure

 

Best Bets 23-20-1

Skins Over

Bears

Jets

Vikings

Vikings Under

Dolphins Under

Chiefs

Panthers

Panthers Under

Giants

Ravens

Steelers

Pats Under

Cards Under

Chargers

 

 Supercontest 6-8-1

Vikings

Panthers

Giants

Ravens

Steelers

NFL Week 3: Intro to UTH

 

It’s so funny to go back and read these posts and how much energy we used to put forth on deciding on where to stay.   So after the big decision to leave the Monte and go to the Mirage in 2007, we quickly moved to the Palazzo in 2008.  I’m not too sure why we did this other than it was brand new and we could still sleep 4 to a room as they were bigger rooms.   I do remember that they had closed down half of the casino because of the market crash and the gambling was a little lacking so we were always going back over to the Mirage.  This trip had a ton of highlights; Emeril’s chef’s table, Wiz-Kermit argument on doubling on 16, Eric singing Diana Ross while hitting a hard 8 for the table, Wiz and I betting the don’t pass while rolling and Kermit betting the pass line and Wiz and I getting hot (at an empty table), Eric chucking dice into someone’s drink, watching basketball in a poolside Cabana,  and of course the infamous Micah wedding ring incident that put him into immediate retirement.  It was also the first year where Eric found the Ultimate Texas Holdem game and introduced it to the group:   

 

I introduced Layup to the table Ultimate Texas Hold em game - I started with 100, and left with....120; Layup started with 200 and left with...about 600. He started betting the sucker bonus bets and hit. Good for him.

 

Then Layup and I went over to the Ultimate Texas Hold Em Poker table game. Great game - I'll explain more about it later. It was just Layup and I and the dealer - a 60-ish year old man who could be compared to Wilford Brimley. (Layup likes Cliff Clavin, but I say no.). We start talking basketball - he loved Western Kentucky - and we found out that he used to referree high school basketball in Michigan. Well, some of you know that I reffed JV ball in Ohio when I got out of school, so the dealer and I hit it off immediately. Layup, however, was not finding the conversation to his liking. It got so bad that it got in the way of his dealing. He would be holding the cards, ready to give us our 2nd card - but get engrossed in his stories (one of them was his recollection of reffing Derek Jeter in a high school game.) He held the cards for a good 45-60 seconds while talking - and not dealing. Oh, this was driving Layup crazy. I enjoyed watching him get more and more irritated.

 

There was also something that happened on Sunday at the craps table, but no one blogged about it and I can’t remember.   If Lee or Wiz can remember please let me know.  Anyway, onto the picks:

 

Texans at Panthers -8: Took the Panthers as my suicide pick.

Cardinals 21 at Jaguars 17 (+7):  I like the Jags to keep it close.  Week 3 tends to be the kitchen sink game for these types of bad teams.  I expect a let down game from the Cardinals

Colts 14 at Titans 17 (-5.5):  I’m not a fan of either team.  Titans are not good this year, but found a way to pull one out last week. While the Colts covered for me last week, Wentz was horrible.  I that was a horrendous game. 

Ravens 31 at Lions 13 (+8):  Ravens kill bad teams.  The Lions can’t stop the run.  I know this is a letdown spot for the Ravens, but I’ve been on the other side of a Ravens let down game too many times.   

Skins 17 at Bills 24 (-7.5):    I don’t know what to do with this one.  I don’t hate Heinke but the Skins D is struggling.  I think the Bills are overvalued, but they come back home after losing their season opener so I expect maximum effort.

Saints 10 at Pats 21 (-3):  How is this line not higher.  I don’t know how the Saints will score in this one. 

Chargers 28 at Chiefs 31 (-6.5):  Chargers always plays the Chiefs tight in Arrowhead.  Chiefs D is problematic.  Like a close game here.

Atl 17 at Giants 14 (-3): Daniel Jones at home is horrible.  Bet on him too many times in this spot. And this line is a total trap.

Bears 13 at Browns 21 (-7):  Are we sure Baker is healthy?   Bears run D is solid, so it will be up to Baker to throw to some bad WRs due to injuries. 

Bengals 21 at Steelers 27 (-3):  How did I not see that let down by the Steelers last week. They do this every time. Beat a really good team and then lose a layup of a game.  The only concern here is if TJ Watt plays. That Raiders game changed when he went out.  

Dolphins 17 at Raiders 14 (-4):  What is the drop off between Brissett and Tua?  Zero.  Raiders are riding so high with people talking about David Carr as a MVP candidate.   All the bets are coming in on the Raiders.   Love this spot for the Dolphins. 

Jets 9 at Broncos 17 (-10):  The Broncos are so over valued right now, but how can you take the Jets on the road against that D?   

Bucs 22 at Rams 20 (+1.5):  Rams run game is struggling…who cares since the Bucs run D is amazing so the Rams will be forced to throw the ball. Stafford in his first big game.  I don’t like it.     

Seahawks 21 at Vikings 28 (+1.5):  Vikings should be 2-0, but now are 0-2 because of two bonehead plays.  They finally return to home where they are so much better.   Seahawks can’t stop the run and I’m confused as to why the Seahawks are favored here.

Packers 28 at 49ers 35 (-3.5):  Something is seriously wrong with the Packers D and the niners corners are hurting. Think this is a shoot out.   

Eagles at Cowboys (-4): Aren’t these Monday night NFC East divisional games always 3 points?   

 

 

SuperContest 3-6-1

 

Ravens

Falcons

Steelers

Dolphins

Vikings

 

Best Bets 15-14-1

Jags

Ravens

Pats

Pats Under

Chargers

Falcons

Browns Under

Steelers

Dolphins

Broncos Under

Vikings

Vikings Over

Packers Over

Eagles

NFL Week 2: Transition to the Mirage

 March 2007 was when everything changed out in Vegas.  The main group left the Monte Carlo after being there for 10 years.  I remember when we first stayed at the Monte when it first opened.  That was when our daily budget was $100 a day and we would play 12 hours of 4-8 limit hold em. We would go over to the New York New York to get a taste of a nicer casino.   

After the 2006 trip, we all made the decision that it was time to leave as the rooms were rough and the gambling was lacking.    We all joined Wiz and Micah at the Mirage and have been there for the last 14 years.   We had hooked Don and Mike to join as a part of the main group, but for this trip we lost Jay, Laura, and Lee.  

We were still at a time where there were no TVs at the tables, so that required us to travel to a sportsbook to watch the basketball games. Maryland was still solid at this point, so we had to go to Caesar's Palace to watch the Maryland game as they had a bar where we could all hang out and drink.  Watching basketball games with Eric, Wiz, and Micah back then was pure comedy.  So much  name calling, emotional outbursts, and side gambling that keeps everyone entertained.   Here are a couple of clips from Eric’s and Wiz’s recap from the morning session of games:

“As Wiz has said, there was a lot of nervous moments in that game, compounded by seeing Louisville up 30 over a weak Stanford team. I pulled a Khruschev at one point, taking off my loafer and banging it on the bar at Caesar's.” 

 

“But as the Terps started to break away, we broke out in celebration. I distinctly remember a free throw with about 1 min to play to put the Terps up 10; Micah was just about to do a strip tease on the bar; Derek and Wiz were hurting each other doing high-fives; and I was playing the coach, nervously pacing back and forth behind the bar, hoping the clock would tick faster than ever before.”

 

“During the game Derek was playing video poker but Eric and myself somehow took over the machine from him, while playing with his money we decided to play the “double down” bet which means you have a chance to double your winnings if you pick a card higher than the dealers. We hit a straight and decide to go for the “double down” bet. Dealer’s card is a King, we are dejected. Somehow Eric picks the Ace and again we celebrate like we won a million dollars when in reality it was $2.25”

 

That was one of Eric’s most memorable traits. His ability to plan for the group and then being so creative on making any moment fun for all of us.  His excitement, energy and emotions were contagious.  That’s why so many people loved him and he was just so much fun to be around. 

 

How does this play into week 2 picks?   Well one of my most memorable traits is to over react.  Usually with anger.   But in terms of the NFL, I tend to overreact to week 1 games.   I’m going to try and not do that here as I tend to do poorly in week 2.  Onto the picks 

 

Giants 17 at Redskins 20 (-3.5):  Why is this 3.5?  Giants weren’t that bad and Fitz is gone.   Line doesn’t make sense. I’m staying away.   

Broncos 21 at Jags 20 (+6):  Not going to read too much into the Jags Houston game as I didn’t like them on the road for their first game.  Broncos traveling for the second week in a row and didn’t look great against the Giants.   I really like the Jags here and can’t believe they are getting 6 points at home.

Texans 10 at Browns 28 (-12.5):  Browns looked great, except for the 4^th quarter.  This is a must win game at home against a team riding high.  

Bills 17 at Dolphins 21 (+3.5):  Need to make as much money as possible on the Dolphins D before Vegas catches on.  Dolphins will be able to move the ball.  I know that the Bills own the Dolphins, and this could be a let down game for the Dolphins after that huge win against the Pats.   Will tread

Rams 24 at Colts 21 (+3.5): This is a trap if I ever seen one and I would of fallen for this in years past.   Everyone is talking about the Rams and how dominate they are and Stafford is a MVP candidate and the Colts didn’t look great last week.  That Bears game was closer than one would think with fucking Andy Daulton as QB has me a little cautious.     

49ers 17 at Eagles 20 (+3.5):  49ers banged up and second week on the road.  What an amazing back door cover by the Lions last week.  Eagles looked dominate mainly on D.  Everyone is still healthy.  Looks like Hurts has some weapons.  I love the Eagles here to win outright.

Bengals 17 at Bears 24 (-2.5):  Bengals coach is horrific.  Now put them on the road getting less than 3 points?  I’ll take the Bears, even with Daulton who shouldn’t be starting.

Saints 14 at Panthers 21  (+3): Why are the Panthers underdogs?  Division game with a home team as a dog.  I’ll take it.  Plus

Raiders 10 at Steelers 31 (-5.5):  Raiders at home last week, opening up that stadium, in a crazy game will be going on the road against a top rated D.   Big Ben looks solid, nothing special.  I think this will be a huge blowout.

Pats 24 at Jets 17 (+6): In division games I like to take home dogs.  But I just can’t.  I watched that Jets game and I can’t imagine the Pats D letting Wilson do what he did in the second half.   Plus the Pats own the Jets. 

Vikings 24 at Cards 27  (-3.5):  Both teams are heading in the opposite directions after week 1.   The Bengals game shouldn’t of been that close, but the Bengals have a horrible coach that let the Vikings back in.  I think the Vikings will get their offense moving, but I also think Murray is finally healthy.  Have we all of a sudden forgot how back Kingsbury is?   I’m taking the Vikings here.   

Falcons 21 at Bucs 28 (-12.5):  I believe this is the first time ever a team was favored in week 1 and then is a double digit dog in week 2.  This is such an over reaction in my eyes.   Falcons should be able to pass the ball and keep the back door open. 

Titans 17 at Seahawks 35 (-5.5): I have a 50-1 superbowl ticket on the Seahawks.   I thought all offseason the Titans were in big trouble and faded them in week 1.  I think this line is too low. 

Cowboys 28 at Chargers 35 (-3):  Chargers have a real coach and a healthy D.  Cowboys are banged up and have a horrible coach. 

KC 31 at Ravens 28 (+3.5):  This is the Ravens superbowl. They will be able to run the ball.  Jackson will be amped up after costing the Ravens the game.  So much hype about Mahommes never losing in September and that might still be the case, but the Ravens are still getting 3.5 points at home in primetime. 

Lions 10 at Packers 28 (-11):  I have no clue on this one.   Lions are bad.  Packers should be better, but Rodgers attitude has me very very concerned.   Gun to my head I’m going with the Packers, mainly because I need them to be good for fantasy football purposes. 

 

 

SuperContest 1-3-1 (not a good start)

Eagles

Ravens

Jaguars

Bears

Steelers

 

Top Picks (7-6-1)

Panthers

Bears

Dolphins

Eagles

Jags

Atl

Ravens

Chargers

Steelers

Vikings

Vikings Over

Browns

Dolphins Under

Seahawks

Seahawks over

Pats Under

NFL Week 1- 2006 Vegas Trip

 That’s right.  It’s back.  As everyone knows its been a very tough 18 months for the blog.  We took a year off from the SuperContest last year, but Wiz and I are back in for a joint entry named The Candiotti Men in honor of Eric.  I’m also going to try and attempt to do Eric’s weekly themed NFL picks this year in his honor.  I was looking at the past posts of Eric’s and he did 14 years of these picks. 14 years!!!  And his themes were so hilarious; Price Is Right games, Seinfeld characters, Football Refs, Announcers, Masters Holes, Casinos, Asian Food, Asian Vacations, Random Photos from China, Game Shows, Afternoon TV, closed Resturants (my favorite), Anagrams, and Cleveland Sports Losses.  He loved thinking about the themes at the beginning of the year, taking time to map it all out, and then hunting down obscure pictures for each week.  He would wake up super early on Saturday to make sure that it would get posted. He used to get so mad that we would text him our comments and not post them in the blog.  I knew that bothered him so I would just text him more and more and never comment on these, but I loved reading these weekly posts and I deeply miss them.    

 So for this year, I will be posting my thoughts on the games and posting our SuperContest entry and best bets with the theme being Eric’s greatest Vegas recap stories from the blog. I’ve spent the last two days going through 14 years of Vegas recaps and I have to narrow it down so most of these topics will be highlighting his losses!     

 So week one theme will be highlighting the first Vegas recap on FJ.  This was back in March 2006.   This trip was significant for several reasons:

 

• The last time we stayed at the Monte Carlo.  4 to a room!  I believe this was the last time we did this as well.
• Poker was still the main game that was played by most people.  It was a big deal to get the poker rate back then. 
• This was the first trip that we were introduced to both Don and Mike. 
• Nice Dinners were now a mainstay on our trips instead of going to Sbarros for a quick bite to eat. Don and Mike introduced us to Mesa Grill and Craft.  

And this trip supplied some hilarious stories:

 

• Backdoor action:  I remember Wiz and I yelling this at a $25 BJ table at the Monte Carlo.  
• Credit Card Roulette:  The first time we did this at a dinner.  Don was the loser at Mesa Grill for a measly $695. 
• Eric getting angry that $5 craps tables were hard to find and $25 BJ tables . 
• Don asking Carol “What do you see in him” when I got up from the table to go to the bathroom. 
• The 16 vs 10 incident with Lee’s brother in law.  #neverforget

 

But it was also the first time we saw a weakness in Eric’s College Basketball betting strategy. He was a superior College Basketball handicapper.  When he would do his research he tended to be pretty accurate.  That’s not to say that he was always win money, because he was also a degenerate.  He could never single out a handful of games that he felt strongly about and call it quits. No, he would bet those games and then another 20 games and give it all back. But all in all he would walk away with money.  And this trip was no different.  Eric felt confident going into Friday session during the opening weekend of March Madness.   Eric increased his wager amount after having a solid day on Thursday and placed $77 on 19 games.  Now remember back then, our budgets were still pretty modest.  We weren’t rolling out there with 5 digit bankrolls or even $5k bankrolls.  I mean we were still staying at the Monte with 4 to a room.  So Eric places the bets and then heads out to golf.  While on the golf course, Eric is checking in on the scores and things are not looking good.   And they continue to turn south as he goes 1-9 in the morning games.   He rebounds slightly in the afternoon games, but still ends up 5-14.  He was devastated.  Shocked.  Depressed.  Not only was it about the money, but also about the fact that he had such confidence in his system and picks and it just got flipped upside down and fell for so many traps.  We will always reference that day as Black Friday.

 

And I’m taking this lesson into the 2021 season of the NFL.  Don’t get too cocky and confident and always be aware of the traps.   I don’t know more than Vegas, and when I see a line that looks wrong (there are several this week), I have to realize that this is a trap and bet with the Casino.   

 

 

Cowboys at Bucs (-8.5)  While I wasn’t surprised by the Cowboys covering, I was surprised by the Total.  Thought everyone would come out flat.  And boy did both teams look great.   

 

Cardinals 31 at Titans 28 (-3):  Titans haven’t done much to fix their D. They lost their O coordinator. Henry coming off another huge carry month.  Everyone is against the Cardinals this year, despite improvements on the D.  Really like the Cards in this game.

 

Seattle 21 at Colts 24 (+3):  TRAP!!! This just doesn’t make any sense.  All the negativity coming out on the Colts this preseason.  Yet the line is holding at 3. Vegas is begging you to take the short road favorite.  Seattle’s D is horrible and the Colts D is above average.  Is Wentz playing? Who cares, the colts will just run all over Seattle’s D.  In the past I would of loaded up on Seattle, but this is such a trap.

 

Chargers 14 at Skins 21 (-1):  Why is everyone so high on the Chargers?   Not much is changing for this team, except for a new coach. Everyone is predicting Herbert to make another jump in year 2, but year 2 QBs tend to not make that big of an improvement.  Skins D is elite and the upgrade at QB is huge.   

 

Jags 13 at Texans 14 (+3): TRAP!!!! Am I really going to take a rookie QB and an overwhelmed new head coach on the road?  In years past I would, but this is another trap.  Everyone is calling Houston the worst team of all time.  They still have a competent QB, a slew of veteran RBs, and some solid WRs.  This might be the only chance the Texans will have for a win. 

 

Jets 21 at Panthers 24 (-5):  I really like what I’ve seen with the Jets.  Wilson looks solid, the coach seems to know what he is doing, and they have enough weapons to keep it close.  Yes, this is definitely a revenge game for Donald, who I like, but I also think the Jets are amped up for this one as well. I expect a close game. 

 

Steelers 28 at Bills 24 (-6.5):  Everyone is super high on the Bills.  Everyone has written off the Steelers.  Steelers still have a really good D that can handle the one dimensional Bills offense.  I think Big Ben will be fine and have enough weapons to put up points.   I like the upset here and everyone in Buffalo to panic.

 

Vikings 27 at Bengals 14 (+3):  People are forgetting that the Bengals were covering with Burrows before he got injured.  Want to believe that they can win this game, but I don’t trust their coach and D.  The Vikings D have several key people back on defense and everyone will be healthy on offense.  I like the Vikings to cover easily on the road.

 

Eagles 17 at Falcons 21 (-3):  I like both teams this year. Think this is a lazy line or a trap.  Everyone is predicting the Eagles to finish last in the NFC East.  Some people are predicting the Falcons to be a sleeper team. But yet this is sitting at 3.  I’m staying away from this. If this goes to 3.5 I’ll take the Eagles.   

 

49ers 28 at Lions 14 (+7.5):  Jimmy G is starting while they traded up to get Lance which is confusing me on why everyone loves the 49ers  I hate Goff. Hated him in college and thought that he was so protected under McVay.  Let’s see what happens now with no weapons and a bad coach.  

 

Browns 21 at Chiefs 35(-6): I’m high on both of these teams but what a shitty matchup for the Browns in week one.   KC is pissed after the super bowl loss and will lay it on the Browns.   

 

Broncos 17 at Giants 10 (+3): Superior D’s on both sides.  Bridgewater is such an upgrade over Lock and he’s money on the road.  Giants don’t have an O line.  Think this is an easy cover for the Broncos

 

Packers 27 at Saints 14  (+4):  If this was in NOLA I would of bet the Saints.  But this is in Florida and NO home field advantage is only worth 1.5 points?  Doesn’t make sense to me. 

 

Dolphins 14 at Patriots 16 (-3):  I’m so excited for this game.  Tua vs Jones.  Two top rated D’s.  I do think people are sleeping on the Dolphins. 

 

Bears 7 at Rams 31 (-7.5): I’m big on the Rams this year.  Stafford is such a huge upgrade in QB.  They will let it fly on an over rated Bears D.    

 

Ravens 23  at Raiders 10 (+4.5): I know that this is a TRAP!!! Remember hockey?  It took the casinos 4 months to realize Vegas doesn’t lose at home since all the visiting teams go out and party.  It was such a huge money maker until the visiting teams and the casinos realized how to handle this travel.   Not looking for good for the Ravens.  But Wiz and I put this into our supercontest before realizing this bit of info.  We will see how this plays out, but I’m already chalking this up as a loss.   

 

SuperContest: 0-0

Ravens -4.5

Jets +5

Skins -1

Cardinals +3

GB -4

 

Best Bets:

TB Under (L)

Ravens

Chiefs

Ravens Under

Steelers

Jets

Dolphins

Colts

Broncos

Rams

Cardinals

Cardinals Over

Pats Under