NFL Week 4: Damon's

Damon's! A place for ribs! Technically, Damon's has not disappeared - there are reports of about 6 restaurants still open in the US. But Damon's was a big name for ribs, beer and sports in the late 80's and 90's.

Yes, Damon's was supposedly known for its ribs - and its onion loaf, more about that later - but it was one of the first restaurants to have big screen TVs on a wall for sports - and they were one of the first adopters of the on-line trivia craze in the 90s spurred on by NTN.

But the wall of TVs was the attraction to me. The first memory of Damon's I have is our golf spring break trip of 1992 down in Hilton Head....spring break was the same time as the NCAA first and second round games. My God, I thought, when I get a real job, I'm going to spend 10 hours in Damon's eating ribs, onion rings and watching all the games. No one else in our group - Steve, or Kermit -  had an interest in Damon's - I couldn't get them interested in (12) New Mexico St. vs (5) DePaul or (8) Evansville vs (9) UTEP. *

*ed note - yes, those were real games. New Mexico St and UTEP were the winners. 


Damon's started in Columbus in 1979, and at its peak in the early 90s, there were 130 locations in the Midwest and South. Wow. In the mid 90s, there were 4 Damon's in the Dayton area alone. And in 1996, I finally got to live out my college wish - spend an afternoon at Damon's watching the tournament games in the afternoon. I spent it with my similarly-obsessed co-worker Paul....who first introduced me to fantasy football a year earlier.

Anyway, the games that afternoon were good, highlighted by a talented MAC team with an NBA star (Earl Boykins) beating a small school from North Carolina. It was an 8-9 game. The score?

Eastern Michigan 75, Duke 60.

We loved it.

Other games that day that we didn't watch at Damon's but were significant:

(1) Purdue 73, (16) Western Carolina 71. I have zero recollection of this close 1-16 game.
(12) Drexel 75, (5) Memphis 63. I had Memphis as my sleeper for the final four; this game was the mystery 5:00 pm game that no one in America could watch. Remember that time slot? We left Damon's around 5; I got home around 5:30 and got no updates on this game until CBS re-started coverage at 7:00 pm Boy, was I pissed.
(13) Princeton 43, (4) UCLA 41. Nothing else to say.

Anyway, the food at Damon's? Well, ribs of course, but the star was the onion loaf. This was a literal loaf of onion rings that were shaped together like a bread loaf and fried---- and served with this delicious southwestern sauce. You shared this and you barely had room for the full slab of ribs that was coming. For a mid 20s bachelor - yes, I think I ate a whole onion loaf myself sometimes.

It wasn't much of a date place - maybe I took Janice there once, and she wasn't the biggest fan of having a nice rib dinner interrupted by shouts and cheers of her date and others around.

I think that was a big part of Damon's downfall.....if you focus on sports and trivia, it needs to be more of a bar atmosphere instead of a full service, sit down restaurant. I think BW-3's was the main competition for Damon's in the 90s- and BW-3 executed it perfectly. It had TVs and trivia, and delivered good quality bar food - quickly, in an informal atmosphere. A perfect match. A 90 minute rib dinner just doesn't seem to go with trivia and sports....and I think that's why Damon's failed, It couldn't decide if it was a rib joint or a sports bar. It turned out being neither.

There is still one up in Wilmington, OH - about 30 minutes away from us - and there is one in Myrtle Beach. That makes sense since 80% of Ohio vacations in Myrtle Beach each year (the other 20% go to the redneck Riviera on the Florida panhandle), and the owner of the Damon's down there says he exists because of the Ohio visitors who recognize the Damon's name.

Maybe, if I get my appetite back, I'll head up to Wilmington to watch an NFL Sunday with my good friend the Onion loaf......

On to the games...

Phi 27, GB 23. I know this is a day late, but I predicted this....

Atl 26, Ten 20. I don't like either of these teams. Atl has talent but no coaching, Ten has coaching but no talent. I would take Atlanta but there's the dumb Matt Ryan interception coming at any time.

NE 24, Buf 13. I just don't see how Buffalo is going to score here. They struggled against Cincinnati, the Jets, even at times vs. the Giants - I can't see them getting past the teens against the Pats.

KC 31, Det 23.  Detroit will score - if Stafford plays - but of course, the Chiefs will answer on their own. The Lions D is not that good to keep the Chiefs out of the 30s.

Hou 23, Car 16. Sure, Matt Allen played well last week - but now Romeo has a week to prepare against this, frankly, one-D offense. Houston will do just enough offensively to win.

Ind 31, Oak 24. We have to watch and determine when this crazy Oakland travel schedule will cause them to fall off the cliff. This is just week 2, so it's not it - Indy has injuries in the secondary and Oakland may keep this close.

LAC 27, Mia 17. Miami showed some life vs Dallas last week - the game was close than the final score. I think the Chargers D is soft enough so Miami can get into the teens - and that will be enough to stay close.

Was 31, NYG 27. Let's not crown Daniel Jones just yet. My God. It was a horrible Tampa defense. And the Giants D is still bad. Look for a high scoring game here.

Sea 30, Arz 20. Seattle will come out pissed off, and will come after Murray. If Murray can't conquer Carolina's D at home, they will struggle as well vs. the Seahawks.

LAR 31, TB 14. The Rams are due for a breakout game - we know Goff's home/road splits, so I expect a big game from Goff. And the Rams D was impressive vs us - and will stop Tampa at home.

Min 20, Chi 17.  What a game this will be. Can Cousins deliver on the road? Will Chicago do anything on offense when not given turnovers? Fascinating. Not really confident that the Vikes can actually win.

Den 24, Jax 14.  If supposed wizard D coach Vic Fangio can't stop this Manshew-mania, then what good is he? I've got to believe he has the game plan with the rushers to stop Jacksonville's one-D passing offense.

Dal 27, NO 23. A great game. Dallas is the class of the NFC, but who have they played? No one. This is their first real test. I still have questions on NO's D- I expect Zeke to have a big game.

Pit 31, Cin 27. Wow. Enjoy, America! Cin and Andy Dalton will move the ball through the air - but the home field advantage will give the Steelers just enough. I will watch this hopefully laughing at both teams.

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 7-8; overall: 28-17-1.
ATS: 3-6 last week, 13-14-1 overall
over/under: 4-2 last week, 15-3 overall

Phi +4 (winner!)
NE -7
NE/Buf under 42
Hou -4
Hou/Car under 47.5
Oak/Ind over 45
Mia +15.5
Was +3
Was/NYG over 49.5
Sea -5
LAR -9
Min +2
Den -3
Cin/Pit over 44

Supercontest picks: Last week: 2-3; overall: 8-7

Phi +4 (winner!)
NE -7
Mia +15.5 (gulp)
LAR -9.5
Den -3

NFL Week 3: Burger Chef

Burger Chef! I have a feeling there's going to be a generational divide with the restaurant. It's peak was in the mid- to late-70s, so I think anyone born in 1973 or earlier would remember Burger Chef. Anyone born later would probably have no idea how popular this restaurant was.

Burger Chef, at it's peak, was the #2 fast food burger joint in the mid 70s (behind McDonalds, of course). It served the usual fare - burgers, fries, shakes - and even had a burger called the Big Shef (yes, the S is correct) - which was a double decker sandwich that looked exactly like a Big Mac.

I remember going to Burger Chef when we lived in Lansing - 4th and 5th grade. A few memories stand out:

1. Bacon! I think Burger Chef was the first time I had a bacon cheeseburger. What a concept - bacon on a cheeseburger. It was heavenly for this 9 year old.

2. I distinctly remember our Mom buying a burger maker at home - this was one of those

Procter Silex appliances that was used twice a year and other than that was buried in the cabinet. These burger makers were like mini griddles, with a lid - so it was like frying your own burger at home. So you could make the unhealthy burgers without leaving the comfort of home!

Also - we somehow bought/found/went to the library and got a booklet on the recipe for the famous burgers of the time. For instance, how do you make a Big Mac? This booklet had the recipe - all the way down to the recipe for the sauce (which, of course, is just 1000 island dressing). There was the recipe for Big Shef also - with a different special sauce. I remember having these frequently at home as Mom tried the various toppings and sauces. Where did she get the double decker buns?

3. Kids meal! Apparently, Burger Chef was the first restaurant to sell a kids meal. It was called a Fun Meal, and they had characters to represent the chain just like McDonalds would. There was Burger Chef, his kid sidekick Jeff, a vampire, a talking ape, and a magician. They actually had a license with the Star Wars franchise for the Fun Meals - remember, this was the late 70s. I think I remember getting a Fun Meal with C3PO one time.

McDonald's introduced their Happy Meal in 1979 - Burger Chef sued, but lost. A huge loss for the company.

So what ultimately happened to Burger Chef? It was sold to Hardee's in 1982. Hardee's was the "winner" and the Burger Chefs were converted to Hardee's. I don't think Hardee's had as much clout as Burger Chef - but whatever. The corporation left the Burger Chef name to die.

Talk about dying - there is also the "Burger Chef Murders" from 1979. Apparently, 4 young workers were abducted from a Burger Chef in Indiana late one night - and their bodies were found a day later in nearby woods. This made national news and the murders are still unsolved. Kind of scary if you ask me.

Here's a commercial for Burger Chef from the 70s - kind of catchy, except for the "Open Wide, America" opening line.....

 Open wide, America, the Browns are on Sunday Night Football! First time since 2008, when I was unable to watch the game since Hurricane Ike knocked power out of our house for 5 days - and this was when Martin was 2 weeks old. That was hell. At least our insurance covered roof damage from a hurricane - in Ohio.

On to the games:

Buf 20, Cin 13. I can't get this Bills team right. Cin has the defense to stop Allen, but they have no run game and Buffalo's pass D is impressive. See a low scoring game here.

Dal 33, Mia 16. Is Jason Garrett as ruthless as Bill B? I know bad 0-2 teams, and one of these days Miami will at least play decent. Dallas will get ahead early and take the foot off the gas.

GB 27, Den 17. Third game in a row where the Packers play a solid defense. Think they will get something going in their pass game - and I can't trust Flacco on the road.

Ind 27, Atl 20. What a lucky game I got Sunday night with the Falcons - they dominated the game and should have lost. They have flaws all over the place - and Reich will take advantage in the Colts' first home game.

KC 34, Bal 27. Let's not crown the Ravens yet. They beat Miami and a one-score game vs. the Cards. Their O is good, but their D - not sold on it yet. A shootout in KC? KC by a touchdown.

Min 30, Oak 20. Oakland has a good run D, so Min will have to lean a little more on Cousins - and they can do that at home. Which forces Oakland to pass - a high scoring game here.

NE 30, NYJ 10. What is there to say here? The Jets D isn't that bad - we will have to check on Mosley - but their O is LeVeon and nothing more. Maybe I am optimistic thinking the Jets will get 10.

Phi 27, Det 24.  This is not a slam dunk for the Eagles - with the receivers out (Jackson, Goddert) they have to rely on the run game some, which is weak. Detroit is a little more impressive this year.

Arz 27, Car 16. I need to watch the Cardinals more to really understand their offense. So far, it's at least average and they should be able to move against a Carolina team ready to crack.

TB 20, NYG 17. I think Daniel Jones is a real upgrade - now, can he use Engram and Shepard to move the ball? And how can you lay almost a touchdown with Winston?

LAC 31, Hou 24. I don't believe in the Houston run game- Hyde? - so the Chargers can focus solely on Watson. And their D is not that good - Rivers and the Chargers are pissed.

SF 27, Pit 16. Still love Kyle Shanahan and he should be able to scheme against this weak Pit pass D. Can Rudolph show anything with a week of practice? Maybe a bit...

Sea 27, NO 13.  The key here is the NO average run D vs. Seattle's focus on running the ball. Seattle will dominate the time of possession and march on the Saints.

Was 20, Chi 17. I'm not convinced the Skins D is all that bad - they played Philly and Dallas. The Bears just seem off kilter on O - and Washington will score just enough to keep this close and win at the end.

Oh - and for our game? I'll leave you with Ben Crenshaw to sum up my thoughts.

Best bets: 15 of them. Last week: 9-5-1; overall 21-9-1
ATS: 4-4-1 last week, 10-8-1 overall
Over/under: 5-1 last week, 11-1 overall

Cin/Buf under 44
Mia +22.5
Ind -1.5
Bal/KC over 52
Oak/Min over 43.5
Det +5.5
Det/Phi over 45.5
Arz -2.5
NYG +6
NYG/TB under 47.5
LAC -3
Hou/LAC over 48.5
SF -6.5
Sea -4.5
Was +4

Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-2; overall: 6-4
Ind -1.5
NYG +6.5
LAC -3
Sea -4
Was +4

NFL Week 2: Friendly's

Before we get into the next restaurant from the 80s that I miss, we need to recognize the
end of the Tribe's 2019 season. With their doubleheader loss to the Twins on Saturday - including a 5-2 blown lead in the 6th in the nightcap - I just don't see a way for the Tribe to climb back into it, especially the way the A's and Rays are playing. We dug too deep of a hole for ourselves in April and May and just couldn't get over the hump.

So where do we go as kids to get cheered up in the summer? Ice Cream! And there was no better place to get ice cream in the 80s in the mid-Atlantic than Friendly's. There were Friendly's restaurants all over the place in Maryland in the 80s. These were full service restaurants - like a Bob Evans -  that served burgers, chicken sandwiches, salads and the like - but Friendly's was known for its ice cream.

The restaurants themselves had a side window just for ice cream orders. We would go there sometimes and I would always get the mint chocolate chip cone. I became infatuated with that flavor when I was 10 and ate nothing but that flavor for 5 years. I think it started with Friendly's.

The best food item (non-ice cream) at Friendly's? The patty melt! Yes, they served burgers, but they also served melts- where you press down on a rye bread sandwich and get all the grease in the bread while apparently saying its healthier than a regular burger. Yes, I fell for the advertising and got the melts whenever we ate there.

Getting back to the cream - the draw of Friendly's was not just the quality of the ice cream, but the sundaes that they made. Over the top, 4000 calorie sundaes that should be shared by 5 adults or eaten by one pre-teenager. The one I most fondly look back on is the Reese's Pieces sundae. I remember vividly going to the Friendly's in Hunt Valley Mall with my Mom - there was one there, right? On the second floor just down from the food court? Please, someone verify this....  She took me there as a reward for a good report card, I think. So I ordered the Reese's Pieces sundae.

In a booth a good 40 feet away, our neighbors were there - a mom and an older sister (who Layup and I did not like) of our friend. They certainly looked jealous of the sundae I got, so apparently the sister got one too. But there was no way she could keep up with me. I finished mine with no problem and she struggled to get halfway through hers. I got a kick of seeing her semi-sick face when she realized she could go on no longer.

Where are the Friendly's now? I knew of one in Ohio - in Mount Vernon, near the Apple Valley golf course that I used to play in tournaments almost every year. It was still open when I went to China (in 2010) but when I went back this year, it was closed. No business moved into the building so it still had the same red awning out there and the ice cream take-out window was still displayed - but uninhabited. A sad sight.

I believe Friendly's are still open (and growing??) in the northeast, like Pennsylvania and northeast of there. Can someone confirm? But I haven't been to one in at least 30 years. I would like to taste another patty melt, however. Any still in Maryland?

As for the Browns, let's just forget about last week's game and get a sundae from Friendly's. 18 penalties are obviously too much, and is most likely a result of Freddie's first game as a coach. If we tighten that up, play to our strengths and not be too aggressive in kicking people in the head - we should be fine Monday night.

(PS -I think Mike Vrabel of the Titans is a top 5 coach in this league. What he has done with that talent in Nashville is amazing.)

On to the games:

Bal 27, Arz 10. The Ravens are still primarily a running team - week 1 notwithstanding - and will control the ball here - and will stop David Johnson. No concerns of Murray putting up big numbers on the road here.

Cin 27, SF 24. Looking at the teams, both will want to pass. Should be some turnovers, causing this to go over, and I trust Dalton at home vs. Jimmy G on the road.

LAC 34, Det 27. This is a game that the Chargers should win easily, but will find a way to make it close. Love the Chargers O - and will have enough to stop Detroit's improved run game.

GB 23, Min 20. I still can't figure this game out. Minny will try to establish the run - and Green Bay will be able to stop. But GB O will struggle vs the Min D, especially in the run game. Going with the home team here.

Hou 23, Jax 17. Yes, Munchew looked good, but that was vs. Kansas City. And we can't denigrate the Jags' D because it was against KC. I think the Jags will shut down Watson enough - and the Texans' fraud run game - to keep them in the 20s, and hopefully a Jags cover.

NE 30, Mia 13. What's there to say about this game? I believe Belicheck will take it easy on the Dolphins because the new coach of Miami, Flores, was their DC last year. No need to embarrass him.

NYG 20, Buf 17. Let's calm down on the NYG D - they played, I think, the best team in the NFC last week. Giants have some weapons to score, and Buffalo is still working on that. If Allen beats this team with his arm, so be it.

Pit 31, Sea 17. After any loss, people say that Pit should get back to "steelers football". I agree - and that type of Pit football is Ben slinging it for 450+ with receivers running everywhere. This is what has worked for them over the past 10 years, and should work this week at home vs Seattle.

Ten 23, Ind 20. Not sure how good Brissett is - but seeing what Vrable did to us, I 'm sure he's got something up his sleeve for Jacoby. Ten should be able to control Mack with their D.

Dal 27, Was 20. Was does have a solid D, so this is not a walk in the park for the Cowboys. But damn, how do the Skins score?

KC 34, Oak 23. Trying to see how Oakland stops KC, even at home. JAx has a much better D than Oakland, and KC did everything right and scored 40. No reason to see how that changes here.

Chi 20, Den 13. Boy, I'm confused on this game. Denver does have a good defense - so they can do what GB did last week. What can Vic Fangio know from his years with the Bears and attack ? Can Trubisky have a good game on the road? So many questions here.

LAR 31, NO 24. Too many questions on the Saints' D here. What they did to let up that TD drive by Watson at the end was criminal. And they always start slow in their first outdoor game.

Atl 30, Phi 24.  I think this is a perfect spot for Atlanta - revenge game from week 1 last year; they are not as bad as they looked because they played a dominant Min D last week, and Philly has some
weaknesses on their D.

Best bets: 15 of them. Last week: Officially 12-4.
ATS: 6-4
Over/unders: 6-0

Bal -13
Bal/Az under 46
SF/Cin over 46
LAC -1.5
LAC/Det over 47
Jax +8.5
NE/Mia under 48.5
NYG +2
NYG/Buf under 44.5
Pit -3.5
KC -7
Chi -2
Chi / Den under 40
LAR -2
Atl +1.5

Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-2
NYG +1.5
Pit -4
LAR -2.5
Atl +1.5
Cle -2.5 (stale line; have to take it to keep up with the other competitors)

NFL Week 1: Roy Rogers

Hello from San Diego! It's time for the 2019 version of the world famous themed NFL picks. Being at home during the day most of the time (when I'm not with my degenerates playing $5 UTH at 10 am on Tuesday mornings), I'm on the internet a lot - and sometimes, yes, I fall for the clickbait.

"50 best resort hotels in your area".....
"The 25 small towns that are going bankrupt"
and yes, "20 restaurant chains that are out of business"

Layup visited me a few weeks ago and we saw that list about the chains and it started a good conversation. We were sure I could come up with 17 defunct restaurants - so this year we are going to explore 17 restaurants from my youth that I loved and have a special place in my heart. They may be out of business, they may be surviving by a thread -- but I don't think I'll be able to go to these anymore. Some are well known, some will be obscure - but they are part of my memories.

(if you think you've seen this on the blog before, well, you are right -we did a post about old restaurants back in 2011 here.....this year we will expand on that theme a whole lot.....)

And we will try to link each one to the upcoming Browns game as well. I'm cautiously optimistic for this season. 9-7 is my prediction; I can't go higher because this is Freddie's first year; I don't know how the chemistry will be later this season with OBJ, and there are questions - serious ones - on our offensive line. And we have a rookie punter and kicker.....don't laugh, those will cost us 1-2 games.

Anyway, let's get started! This week we look back at....Roy Rogers!

Roy Rogers, for those of you not from the mid-Atlantic, was a fast food chain specializing in burgers, roast beef, and chicken. To me, it seemed to be a step up from the national chains of McDonalds, Burger King and the like. The star menu item was the "Double R Burger" - a 1/4 burger with ham on it - a break from the regular bacon cheeseburgers you can find anywhere! And I have to say, their fried chicken was good....rivaling KFC's fried chicken. I got the two piece meal many times, with a biscuit and all the margarine you can eat with it.

Roy Rogers seemed to be a special treat for our family growing up. They didn't have one in Hunt Valley or within 10 miles of us. It wasn't a regular stop that we planned to go to; Layup and I seemed to go there on two occasions;

1. When Mom dragged us in the car to go on an all-day shopping trip at White Marsh or so. Sometimes, the Hunt Valley Mall just didn't have the selection and so we ( as kids that were, say, 12 and 9 years old) got put in the car for a 45 minute drive to the swanky mall on the east side of town. Our reward was the Double R Burger.

2. There were Roy's all over the place near the shore, especially in Delaware; I think we always stopped for lunch at a Roy's in Dover as we headed to the Delaware beach for our many weekend vacation getaways.

But the best part of Roy Rogers was....the Fixin's Bar!!! This was no ordinary condiment station, like what Wendy's or Arby's has. It contained 3-4 types of BBQ sauce, plenty of other sauces - and fresh produce! There were fresh sliced tomatoes, onions, pickles and crisp lettuce all waiting for you to put on your burger. I went to town on that!!! I ordered the Double R and slather it with mustard, BBQ, onions, lettuce and one pickle. My parents always had that look of disgust when seeing what concoction I made...….

Kind of like the face I make now when we go to the frozen yogurt place and Martin fills his cup with 6 types of sour Jolly Rancher flavors.

Anyway, the fixin's bar is what made Roy's stand out from the rest. I'm not really sure what happened to Roy's in the 90's - I think it was bought out by Hardee's or something - but it dwindled away. They are planning a comeback; I have read they are opening new locations in New Jersey/Pennsylvania recently.

There was a Roy's in Cincinnati on route 32 near Eastgate - it may have been open as late as 2000, 2001, and I went there once or twice. Now it's been shuttered for years - and nothing has filled its place. The old building is still there, taunting me of an abandoned Fixin's bar inside.

Here is a commercial for Roy's from 1986 to get your taste buds going:

About the Browns: well, I finally feel we have a Fixin's Bar for this team. Our offense usually had 1 weapon - maybe - at our QB's disposal. For the past 10 years or so, what options did our QB have to make plays? Peyton Hills....Josh Gordon for a year.....last year it was just Landry at the beginning. Now, we have options. We have OBJ, Landry, Chubb, Njoku......we have a real fixin's bar for Mayfield. No more stale ketchup in Corey Coleman or moldy tomatoes with Isaiah Crowell.....

On to the games....I have to preview these early and make the picks because I will be without internet on a boat until Sunday afternoon. The horror! I'm sure there will be lots of injuries and changes on Thursday and Friday that will render these picks moot and useless.

Chi 23, GB 17. GB wants to change their O to be more run-based and less spontaneous with LaFleur making the calls - I think that plays right into the Bears' hands.

Bal 22, Mia 10. Such a trap here. What is Miami doing - who will Fitzpatrick pass the ball to? It seems easy, but Baltimore is one-dimensional and that's easy to plan against.

Min 30, Atl 23. I don't think Atlanta has upgraded their secondary, so Min should move the ball; Atl's new coordinator will learn from the mistakes of last year and stay in this game.

NYJ 24, Buf 16. How is Buffalo going to score? We trusting Allen to be accurate week 1? But do the Jets have a pass rush? Darnold comfortable with short passes, avoiding Buffalo's good secondary.

Phi 26, Was 17. I think Phi's new run weapons will be stopped by Washington, who has a great run D; question is how do the Redskins score. Gruden will keep this low scoring.

LAR 30, Car 17. I think the Panthers are a mess. One-D on offense with McCaffrey; Moore is not a weapon yet and what is the injury status on Cam? Losing Davis on D hurts too.

KC 31, Jax 20. Another trap game that looks too easy. Jax will stop run, have pass rush -can it rattle Mahomes? What are Foles and Fournette going to look like vs. the worst run D?

SF 30, TB 24. SF passing attack was decent at the end of last year, questions on Tampa's DL and secondary. Jimmy G did not look good in preseason. SF defense will gamble and force mistakes.

LAC 31, Ind 23. What a mystery. What is the Chargers' secondary going to look like without James? Can Brissett take advantage? What will Gordon's absence do to the Chargers' o?

Sea 23, Cin 13. Cin will run the ball with Mixon- what else can they do? Sea wants to run - that's the strength of Cin's D - can Wilson take advantage of the weak Cincy secondary without weapons?

Az 30, Det 27. Worried about Az's pass rush here - if Stafford has time, will score a lot. But Det's D may not have improved yet; perfect first opponent for Kingsbury and Murray.

Dal 31, NYG 27.  The Giants can't just run the ball here. They have to pass and take advantage of the weak Dal secondary. I think they can do enough to keep it close.

NE 31, Pit 24. NE's D is awesome, but Pit always finds a way with their passing game to get points. Pit secondary is weak, so we may see more of Brady and the passing game than Bill wants.

NO 37, Hou 20. I feel like this is a trap also. Where is Houston's mind with all the moves? I don't know if Hou can get pressure on Brees. NO has to be motivated here.

Den 19, Oak 16. This game will be straight from the 70s - run run run. Lindsey will get plenty of carries as Flacco is eased in; Oak can't handle the pass rush from Den.

Best bets: 16 of them.
Chi -3
Chi/GB under 46.5
Bal -6.5
NYJ -3
Min -4
LAR -3
KC -3.5
Ind/LAC over 44.5
Cin/Sea under 44
Az +2.5
Det/Az over 47
NYG/Dal over 45.5
SF pk
NO -7
Den pk
Den/Oak under 43

Supercontest picks:
Still to come. Will be updated Tuesday evening.

Time for the 2019 NFL season!

Hi everybody! It's almost here - the 2019 NFL regular season! I'm trying to have a muted optimism over the '19 Browns. We won 7.5 games last year - and improved our skill positions on offense and really upgraded our D line. That should translate to 10, 11 wins, right? Not so fast. So many things can go wrong with this team - are we sure the rookie coach was the right choice? Will Odell be a diva? For that matter, is Baker a diva? Who knows.

My prediction: 9-7 and a wild card berth.

Anyway, it's time to get ready for the weekly posts on this blog and the world-famous themed picks. Of course I am doing the SuperContest again this year - was #32 to sign up back in March - and I'm looking forward to get back into the groove I was in during 2017. Not too much pressure there, right?

To reset, here are my career records for the picks on the blog:

Best bets in 2018: 102-110-8  (48.1%)
Career best bets on this blog: 1574-1458-90  (51.9%)

Supercontest in 2018: 42-40-3 (51.2%)
Career Supercontest: 351-309-20  (53.2%)

Need to do better this year!

To get everyone in the mood for NFL football, it's time to watch old clips of the pregame/introduction to games from the 70s and 80s. Let's focus on NBC in the 80s. It's amazing how bad/poor their production was compared to CBS. Everyone knows the NFL today theme - does anyone remember the pregame program from NBC?

Let's compare: Here's CBS's NFL today from 1981; Brent's voice at the beginning still gives me chills and the theme appears at 1:10.

Now we have NFL '81 on NBC with Bryant Gumbel.....stranded by himself with Pete Axhelm coming later. Now it's not their fault they have to preview the Patriots/Colts game......

(and people wonder why the Colts left Baltimore)

NBC did get more dramatic later in the 80s - by adding a montage of "great games, great moments, on NBC". The music here is much better- yes, chill inducing. Two examples:

1. Opening from September 1987

2. Opening from 1988

I loved those montages. They need to bring them back.

Finally, yes, we will have a theme for our picks this year! There was a post on this blog way back when that generated a lot of interest - we are going to expand it this year into 17 weeks. Hint: you will be hungry!

Picks should be posted on Tuesday, since I will be away from the internet for 5 whole days starting on Tuesday - this is thanks to Layup and his wife who couldn't schedule a birthday outing around the NFL season. Hey - if the PGA tour can revamp their schedule around the NFL, can't you schedule a boat trip without missing week 1??

PS  - stay tuned for Leland dressing up in a wonderful outfit on the trip!

Vegas Diary 2019, Part 3

Saturday, March 16

It's the annual free day - Saturday - for the trip. Nothing on the agenda except for dinner that night - except getting the losing parlay in ! Of course, we weren't close to a winner again or even a free dinner for someone. It was a lackluster trip for parlay suspense across the board.

At least we went 4-3 on this

However, sometimes during the free day, ad hoc activities get planned! At about 8:30 am, a call went out for breakfast at the buffet and then a mandatory meeting afterward at the craps table. I'm not sure what happened - but all 7 of us didn't show up at the same time. I can't believe the craps tables were packed at 9:45 am on a Saturday....but maybe I was wrong.

Had my first good roll of the trip - where I started rolling a string of 8's - and only a few people were there to take advantage. After that, nothing....no one seemed to be able to roll and the profits from all my 8's were gone in a flash. No one could roll - frustrating.

Next up, of course, would be UTH. It seems Layup and I always end up on a Saturday late morning/early afternoon at the UTH table near the atrium (with all the natural light) with Gary the dealer. Layup had gotten into the habit of trusting Gary with his sports picks, so there was always conversation about the games coming up (or going on). And boy oh boy, that conversation dragged. The UTH game is hand dealt at the Mirage - and Gary would hold the cards, deal one to the players, and then stop and talk about Kentucky basketball or ask for a score update. I'm sitting there waiting for the second card and Gary is going off about his 3 team parlay last night that missed by the hook or something. After 30 minutes, it got aggravating. After an hour or so - it affected me mentally.

The good thing? The relief dealer came on and gave me quad 5's (which I did not lose, by the way) which floated me through the afternoon.

Ah! One memory that is coming back was the appearance of the "girlfriend" from Wednesday. I think this girlfriend was a 50-something overweight woman (probably from the Midwest) that loved UTH as much as the rest of us. She whistled to herself, sang, and tried to talk to us - but of course, no one wanted to have anything to do with her. So whenever a group of us sat down for UTH session, she usually was there and an icy wind came over the table.

Layup and I got up from Gary eventually- and headed to the salon for round 2 of baccarat. The session was going choppy until an Asian man sat down at the table next to me. Layup and I were taking turns driving with limited success, so we started to listen to this guy.

"Don't play this hand.."
"No, not banker here"
"Now we go heavy on player"

It was fun to let him take the lead and he did fairly well for us! Of course, I can't help myself and I can't sit out multiple hands - so I started betting banker on each hand and lost any profits that the Asian helped me get.

Wiz and others came in during the session and, of course, Wiz headed to the BJ table - Layup joined him and I eventually got there. It wasn't notable - I lost half my bankroll, as usual....I hate salon blackjack. It was extremely frustrating for Wiz as I have in my notes that he had no double opportunities for 4 shoes in a row. Just a complete grind.

After a rest, it was dinner at Craftsteak at the MGM. We always say we are going to gamble at the MGM before dinner, but we never do. Maybe next time we build in an hour for gambling before any MGM dinner. The dinner itself was great - even though I ate about 10% of my dish.... Don and Mike ordered a very expensive bottle of wine that 5 of the 7 drank - so when the bill came, how do we split it up? While the Purdue engineers were arguing for 5-10 minutes with the Clemson finance analyst on how to split it up, the industrial engineer in me quickly figured out the solution- a proud moment in my Vegas dinner history.

The taxi ride back was - let's just say, awful. We had a driver that wouldn't shut up. Someone brought up strip clubs and food - and we were given a 15 minute lecture/tour of each strip club and the quality of their steak. I have the text messages here where we didn't think it was too bad to start, but everyone agreed with me at the end. Just a painful ride back.

Micah had to leave before dinner, so we had 7 of us looking to gamble back at the Mirage. There was an open $25 blackjack table for 6 of us - so we all sat down (except for Wiz, who disappeared into the salon) for a full table session. It didn't start very well - I wasn't getting cards and all my doubles failed. Layup took his customary position at 3rd base - and about an hour in, had a 14 vs a 3.

"Hit me". He was distracted for some reason - drinks? - and this decision shocked the table

The dealer stopped, and asked him again. Layup said yes - give me a card.

Well, of course you know what happened. A 10 appeared, busting Layup and it would have been the bust card for the dealer.....who then drew to a 19.

To his credit, Layup refunded the bets of everyone at the table based on his bad decision. He got up immediately and joined Wiz in the salon. I'm sure this is just one more anecdote on why he never plays blackjack on the main table. The mood for the rest of us didn't improve, and we split up as some went to bed...and some went to UTH, including me. I think our girlfriend was there and, of course, it was a losing session for me. At about 11 pm, I called it a night.

Sunday, March 17

Most of the group - including Layup - left early (like 6, 7 am) so we all said our goodbyes the night before. I had a later flight - like 11 - and thought I could do some early morning gambling, but I had no energy for it. My diary shows zero gambling activity for me that morning - is that really right? The last message I have is that our whistling girlfriend

The flight back was long, and I wasn't feeling all that well. I still am getting used to understanding how taxing travel is for me during chemo sessions. But it was all worth it for 5 days in Vegas.

Of course, I am looking forward to Vegas 2020 and I fully expect to make it out there. I know there has been some talk about moving locations from the Mirage next year.....and I'm open to that!

Vegas Diary 2019 - Part 2

Thursday, March 14

So I may not have fully described how bad the weather was in Vegas this week. Looking through the text messages, it's clear that on Wednesday that the temperature never broke 60 --- and the winds were consistently at 20 mph. There was no one on the course with us on Wednesday - which helped the pace of play, but the weather wore us all down on the back nine.

And the weather was the main reason why I backed out of the round on Thursday. I was tired after Wednesday - and wanted to save myself for Southern Highlands on Friday - and our tee time was like 8:00 on Thursday morning, when the temperature was projected to be about 40 degrees. The only issue was that Thursday's round was at Royal Links, a course I do love and would have wanted to play - and the breakfast burrito! Although this year, the reviews from the breakfast burrito seemed muted at best - was the recipe changed?

Parlay with 7 favorites? 

Guaranteed loser

Apparently, this was the best decision I made for the trip. At lunch, there was so much complaining from the group about the conditions- especially on the front nine - due to the cold and the wind. I don't know if anyone broke 80 at Royal Links.

Got the parlay in at the Mirage book that morning - no one picked any wacko teams - and then realized we picked 7 favorites. Oh yeah, this will work out fine.

I intended to have the morning be a spa day - I scheduled a massage and wanted to use the hot tub a lot. Got to my massage when the therapist asked about any medical conditions I had. I told her about my cancer - she asked about chemo. I said yes, I was undergoing chemo at the time.....and that was the wrong answer. She said policy is that they can't give massages to any active chemo patients - the massage could activate the chemo and make it more powerful. So - I was escorted back into the spa.

(I asked my oncologist about this later - and he said this is not a worry for normal massages. It could be an issue for deep tissue massage, but for normal massages, this is BS. So I'll take a doctor's note with me for Vegas 2020).

I spent about 90 minutes in the spa, falling asleep in the lawn chairs in between sessions in the hot tub rooting against Seton Hall. Nice to be in a 100 degree hot tub while the others are playing golf in 50 degree temps and 20 mph winds!

Hall of fame of worst UTH bad beats

Got out of the hot tub and went to the UTH table to watch basketball after that relaxing session. About 30 minutes in, I was dealt a pair of red 7's. All in for 4 times!

The flop came - 7 spades, 7 clubs, 9 spades. Flopped a quad! Yes, of course, I screamed with delight.

The river was the 10 and Jack of spades. No, there's no way...….

And of course the dealer had the 8 of spades. My flopped quads lost to a straight flush. Thank God it was only a $15 hand....that was a swing of about $900.

After that - I had to change tables and head to the other side of the casino with..... Gary, the infamous UTH dealer. He's starting to be my nemesis - I just can't beat him, and session 1 with Gary was no different as I suffered a serious loss.

Joined everyone at BLT for lunch after everyone came back from Royal Links, and then there was another afternoon UTH session where Wiz got a tray of drinks dumped on him. That meant it was a good time for a nap for me. After the nap, it was time for the first salon session of the trip - Baccarat! Layup and I went in there before dinner ---- and the luck did not change. There wasn't any sort of runs to get excited about.

I think I was incorrect in the last post and the Lavo dinner was tonight instead of Wednesday - which would make more sense given the golf schedules. There was one last UTH session after dinner - which was finally a profitable one for me - and then an early bed time. Southern Highland awaited in the morning!

Friday, March 15

Most of the day was covered with my favorite golf course and outing - Southern Highlands! After getting the morning parlay in - at least we took 2 underdogs today instead of 7 favorites - it was off to Southern Highlands for the annual trip - this time paid for by Layup! We had two full foursomes for the outing, as Layup's friend Jared joined us from Southern California for the rest of the trip.

Another 3-4 losing parlay

The weather was a little better - not as cold as Thursday or even Wednesday - but we did run into a frost delay. For the 8 of us, we set up some elaborate gambling games - each person in the group had a partner in the other group for a best ball competition --- the gimmick here is that you had no idea what your partner scored on a hole, so you just hoped your partner bogied if you were making an X.

We tried to get some sort of pro-am competition going, with our scores combined with the golfer we picked in the fantasy one-and-done golf league....that didn't work out so well as the computations got to be a little massive. Maybe it was my chemo brain that caused a lot of confusion. Not sure if we will do this again.

Layup, Mike A, Jared and I were in the second group - and before we knew it, we fell behind the group ahead of us. It didn't help that on the first hole, I was the only one to actually complete the hole. Don't worry, my X's came later on the back nine.

Where is my partner aiming?

However, the whole experience was kind of ruined that day by our group caddy. I forget what his name was...but holy crap, was he bad. There was some misreads on the front nine on the greens - which is forgivable. However, both Layup and I were given bad yardages multiple times during the round....we are talking 10-15 yards off. Layup hit a few great shots that should have been right on the pin, but the yardage was off and he flew the green.

The caddy gooched me at least twice, saying great drive as the ball was clearly heading for a fairway bunker. This caddy seemed to not know the course at all and the position of the bunkers - even though he said he was a low single digit handicap and caddied here for a few years.  I stopped talking to him on about the 14th hole; Layup went radio silent shortly after. We came to the 17th - the long par 3 over water - and I think there was confusion on the yardage the caddy gave Layup. He may have given the yardage to the pin, where Layup wanted the yardage to cover the water; Layup hit a nice 4 iron that flew the green by a good 20 yards. Holy crap, I thought someone would be pushed in the lake.

But all in all, I loved the course (again) and played as decent as possible given my condition. And Wiz and I seemed to win a little bit of money from our partnership.

Dinner that night was at Carbone's at the Aria casino. Great restaurant, great food. I wished I could have enjoyed it more. The alcohol flowed freely - and I learned that the non-alcoholic drinks were made at a separate bar than the other drinks. So while everyone get quick refills on their cocktails, my Arnold Palmers sat at some lonely secondary bar and took 10 minutes to deliver to me. But- the food was excellent and the scenery - holy crap! We sat in the center of the dining room at a table of 8, and all around us were booths of 2 facing us. The booths, of course, were filled with young couple all dressed to the nines and not much was left to the imagination. It was hard to be discreet to point at all the various couples.

We walked around the casino for a while, threatening to gamble there that night - but never did. Lot of tables, lot of room - not sure why we didn't jump in. It was a Friday night, so the limits were a little high, but still...… The casino seemed great and spacious - and talk started about moving the trip to the Aria next year. Who knows? I have no idea how the rooms are - but it could be a good choice just for the casino alone.

We got a taxi back to the Mirage where there was a UTH session and, of course, a Face Up Pai Gow session. I think there was 3 of us at Pai Gow when some drunk idiot (not in our group) spilled his daiquiri all over the table. That was a sign for me to head up for the night. I think there was a side trip with Layup and Jared later that night...…..

Vegas Diary 2019 - Part 1

Hello everyone! Well, it's time to resurrect the F&J blog as football season is right around the corner. In order to prep for the football season - and the world famous themed picks that will continue this year - it's time to do some house cleaning and make sure all the previous loose ends are tied up.

That includes actually writing the Vegas diary from this year! I've been doing most of my writing on Caring Bridge giving updates on my condition, and therefore ignoring this blog.

(For those that may not have it, here is the Caring Bridge link: Eric's fight)

But it's time to have fun on the blog with the diary and the picks! This year's diary will be light, and I EXPECT to have lots of comments/additions from the attendees in the comments. My notes are pretty light, and after 4 months, I can't even read some of them. But we'll make the most of it. So here we go!

Tuesday, March 12

For obvious reasons, I was excited for this trip just to get away from the life of being a cancer patient. Since I had plenty of time on my hand, I was joking that I would spend 2 weeks in Vegas for all the conference tournaments. Instead, I decided to take the morning non-stop on Tuesday from Cincinnati and spend almost 5 full days for this trip - Tuesday through Sunday. Layup would come later on Tuesday, Wiz even later - and then the golfers Don, Mike D and Mike A would come in Wednesday morning. And then we had the expectant return of Micah on Wednesday! So 7 Vegas veterans for the trip.…. and 6 separate 7-way parlays each day!

Tuesday parlay - 5-2

The trip out was tiring. I was (and still am) getting used to being fatigued when I fly - so a 7 am eastern flight out was tough, and I tried to sleep but couldn't on the flight. So I arrived at around 9 am Pacific and was dead tired - with no room ready.

But first - time to sign up for the SuperContest! For the first time, sign ups for the Supercontest started March 1 so I could sign up this trip and not require a separate trip in August. I met the proxy in the dead Westgate Superbook at around 10 am on a Tuesday, and was a zombie. Signed up, waited there for all the parlay picks to come in from the group.....and then entered the first parlay of the trip at the Westgate. I couldn't do it at the Mirage since some of the picks were obscure teams like UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson - only available at the Westgate. Ah, I love this trip.

Back at the Mirage, with no supervision, the first gambling session was at UTH (of course), and was a complete disaster. It was so bad I had to get up from UTH and play High Card Flush. Layup showed up around lunch time - we had CPK and then I was off to our ready room to shower and nap.

Wiz got in later that afternoon and there was another UTH session that was non-descript - except for the big sports news of the day---- OBJ was traded to the Browns at this time!!! My phone was blowing up for a good 30 minutes - and the pit boss was NOT understanding. I was pissed. I couldn't respond to all the tweets and messages I was getting while playing speed UTH with Wiz and Layup. That was frustrating.

Dinner that night was the three of us at Heritage ---- and that was interesting. During the trip, I was having trouble eating red meat and had to keep my portions small - or else there would be some issues with vomiting/burping up air. And I had to limit my alcohol. So my order at Heritage that night - Lobster Bisque and chocolate milk while Layup and Wiz are enjoying filets and merlot. Yes, I was a bit jealous.

About 3/4 through the meal, I didn't feel that good and knew I would have to vomit up some air. I eft the restaurant and made a brisk walk to the elevator - and realized I may not make it. I eyed the trash can in the elevator lobby, which was right below the up/down buttons.   Ah - ok, let's make a beeline to the trash can just in case. Well, a family was in front of me and the 7 year old also sprinted to the elevator - so he could push the button to go up. No!!!!! I had to politely push him out of the way of the trash can so I could use it...….thankfully, I didn't need to.

After dinner, there was a disasterous (as usual) craps session, a neutral UTH session and the day ended with a new game for Vegas - Face Up Pai Gow! So now the Mirage has regular Pai Gow (with John as the star dealer there) and Face Up, which has taken over in Cincinnati.

Wednesday, March 13

First golf session of the trip that morning - at Canyon Gate CC, a new course in our rotation But first, I got all the picks for the parlay from the morning travelers.....and one of them included Lamar. I went to the Mirage book to place the parlay - and saw the Lamar game was not listed. I asked about it.

"What conference is that?"

Southland.

"Southwestern?"

No! Southland.

"Is that Division I?"

YES! you idiot!

If you are working in the book on Conference championship week, you better know the Div I conferences. Period. Who are they hiring in the book? So I decided to take a walk across the street to the Venetian where, yes, the Lamar game was listed and I put the parlay in.

Wed parlay - 4-3. Lamar did not come through. 

And before golf - some quick gambling at, you guessed it - Face up Pai Gow.

The weather all week in Vegas was cold - I bundled up as much I as I could on a blustery Sunday where the temperature never broke 65, I think , in the afternoon. I liked the course - driving the ball relatively well helped - but I got tired and faded over the last 3-4 holes. The highlight of the round was on the 11th hole, where Layup hit a ball off the tee left into the pines. He was next to a bush and about 10-15 feet inside the fence line protecting the course from million dollar mansions.

With an awkward stance, he swung - and I'm still not sure how this is physically possible, but the ball went about 85 degrees left. It hit the fence twice - BING BING - and we heard another BANG as the ball hit some house somewhere. Thank God it was about 2 pm and no one seemed to be at home in those houses.

Also - since we didn't know the course, gooches were prevalent. Drives that seemed to be down the middle started taking sloped we didn't know existed and ended up in the rough or worse, hazards. I remember one horrible moment by Layup on my drive on the 13th where my ball landed on the right edge of the fairway and ended up in the penalty area on the left - after Layup said "great drive". I think our gooch score that day was Layup 4, Eric 3.

All in all, a nice course to add in the rotation; the weather ruined it a bit but can't blame the course for that. Food and bar area was very nice as well.

We got back, and I think we saw Micah for the first time - at a usual position at a Pai Gow table with a cigarette in hand. Before dinner, we all joined him (around my nap) at Pai Gow and I think we introduced him to Face Up for the first time. I think ( but not sure) that he prefers the old style Pai Gow better. I have in my notes that Wiz got a straight flush in Pai Gow but misplayed it - Face up! - and ended up pushing instead of having an easy winner. How do you screw up a straight flush??

Dinner that night was Lavo - and, of course, it was great as usual. I passed on the Veal parm and had the pasta carbonara - which was a perfect choice for me. Micah was introduced to the Fried Oreos. There was a bit awkward conversation where I forgot he won the big golf pool last year and he didn't know about my SuperContest adventures in 2017.

Walking back from Lavo to the Mirage, it became clear on how low my energy levels were. I just couldn't keep up a normal walking pace on the strip - and lagged behind the group more and more. That was a little depressing - seeing a bit of deterioration of my stamina - but it could have been the golf that day.

The final session for me was a UTH session with the group, which ended up being the best session of my trip where I more than doubled my money. However, there was a lady at our table that I wrote as our "girlfriend" - she had her arm around Don and hit on Mike D, from my notes. Anyone remember this?

NFL Week 17

Well, here we are at the end of another season! No time for a big write up as I got up late to make the predictions for this final week. Note - not a lot of thought went into these! I think this is the laziest set of picks I have made in a while...

Buf 24, Mia 13
GB 30, Det 20
Hou 24, Jax 16
NE 23, NYJ 17
NO 26, Car 13
NYG 24, Dal 10
TB 27, Atl 20
KC 27, Oak 17
Min 26, Chi 13
Pit 27, Cin 10
Phi 26, Was 16
LAC 28, Den 10
LAR 27, SF 17
Sea 29, Az 13
Ten 24, Ind 21

Best bets: Last week: 7-5-1; overall: 95-104-8
Buf -5
NYJ +14
NYJ/NE under 46.5
NO -7.5
NYG -7
TB +2.5
Oak +14
Oak/KC under 52.5
Min -6
Cin/Pit under 45
Phi -6
LAC -7
Ten +4.5

Supercontest picks: Last week: 1-4. First week that I have scored less than 2 points in 32 weeks....
Overall: 40-37-3

Buf -3.5
NYG -6.5
Min -4.5
Phi -6.5
Ten +3

NFL Week 16

An early Merry Christmas to everyone out there! Unfortunately, no time for a snappy theme for the picks. Here are the predictions and picks:

Ten 24, Was 10
LAC 24, Bal 17
Atl 27, Car 20
Dal 30, TB 17
Det 23, min 20
Ind 30, NYG 16
Mia 23, Jax 13
NE 23, Buf 10
GB 27, NYJ 24
Phi 27, Hou 20
LAR 23, Az 10
Chi 20, SF 13
NO 33, Pit 20
KC 34, Sea 31
Oak 27, Den 13

Best bets: 13 of them. Last week: 6-5-2; overall: 88-99-7
Atl -3
Dal -7
Det +6
Ind -9.5
Mia -3.5
Buf/NE under 44
Phi -2.5
LAR/AZ under 44
Chi -4.5
Chi/SF under 42
NO -6.5
KC/Sea over 55
Oak +3


Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-2; overall: 39-33-3
Dal -7.5
Det +5.5
Mia -4
NO -6
Oak +2.5

NFL Week 15: My 600 Lb. Life

Hello on a victory Saturday night! That's a nice win for the Browns over the Broncos, 17-16. We tried to give the game away at the end with the ill-fated timeout by Williams as Denver was jumping offsides on a 4th and 1 - but the defense saved us.

We got the 600 lb. monster off our back in beating Denver - we lost 11 straight to them going back to 1990; that year we were 3-13 (Bud Carson was fired) and somehow one of those wins was a Monday night game in Denver on Week 5. Jerry Kauric (anyone remember him?) kicked a game winning FG as time expired......here it is! Al Michaels and others!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56vQgMtoU7o&t=138s

Wow. The names mentioned in this clip.... and a very dapper Dan Reeves....

We're still alive for a wild card … and the division! Rooting hard for the Pats, Bucs, Cowboys, Giants, and Vikings tomorrow. It is possible for us to be eliminated tomorrow.

Anyway, when I talk about 600 lb. monsters, your mind should go to one of TLC's most successful series - My 600 Pound Life!

Show: My 600 Lb. Life

Network: TLC

When: Thursday nights, plus random mornings

Stars: Dr. Younan Nowzaradan (Dr. Now)

Somehow, I got addicted to this show in the spring. The show is a 1 hour documentary of 12 months in the life of a grossly obese person and their journey to lose the weight. The starting weight of each patient is over 600 lbs. They all go and see the same doctor - Dr. Nowzaradan, a specialist in weight loss in Houston, TX.

There have been 6 seasons of the show- it first aired in February, 2012 as a mini series. The show was so popular that they decided to make it a full fledged series. The format of the show is pretty simple; we get introduced to the patient in question in "month 1" - we see how they live, some insight on diet and how they can and can't do routine activities (like bathe, cook, get to work). It can get graphic as we see them taking a shower with help, rub lotion all over their folds, etc.  In many cases, they have no idea how much they weigh.

At some point, they get an appointment with Dr. Now and head to the Houston office. This usually involves a long road trip of multiple hours, or in one case an ambulance ride from Dallas. Once they get to the office for their appointment, they get weighed - and the weigh in is always over 600 pounds. 600!

Dr. Now meets with them and puts them on a 1200 calorie/day diet full of protein and vegetables. He expects a 30 pound loss in the first month with the diet, and sternly talks to the patient. The patients all want stomach surgery to limit the appetite, but Dr. Now won't approve unless they make some progress with their weight.

The show can go in many directions from here. In some cases, the patient makes drastic changes in diet and exercise and achieves the weight loss; the surgery is seen and all is well. However,  in most cases, the patient can't get the 30 pound loss right away. They "try" to eat healthier but the environment gets in their way. This is when Dr. Now shows his asshole side - he will then start yelling at the patient hat they will die if they don't change. Stop enabling this person, he may say. No more fast food! he yells sometime.

In most cases, the weight loss is achieved eventually and surgery is approved; I've seen so many gastric surgeries on this show than I care to remember. The show ends at month 12, with mixed results - some are successful with a total weight loss of 200 pounds or more; others are flatlined.

There have been 70 episodes of the show, and only 4 patients have died. That's pretty amazing. And two of those were due to causes unrelated to weight!

I love Dr. Now. He starts with a very friendly demeanor (with his trademark "Hello!") but it's clear he has little patience for people that don't follow his directions. His blunt style is what these people (and their families) need to hear in order to save their lives.

I think we can equate Dr. Now with Gregg Williams as Williams tries to resurrect this franchise. Let's keep the momentum going - and the Steelers losses coming, too!

On to the games:

Atl 23, Arz 17. Boy oh boy, Atlanta is the walking dead here. They have given up - and a team that has given up should not be laying double digits.

Bal 27, TB 13. Can't see the Ravens losing focus here. An inconsistent Winston against this pass D? I expect the Ravens D to score 7-10 points by themselves.

Buf 20, Det 13. Still love the Bills (and their D) at home, regardless of last week's fluke vs. the Jets.

Chi 24, GB 17. Trubisky at home will move the ball enough to get the win here.

Oak 26, Cin 23. I think Oakland's pass offense - centered around Cook - will be able to move the ball easily against the Bengals. Over under on attendance here: 17,500.

Ind 30, Dal 20. Horrid spot for Dallas after 3 home games. The Colts are desperate and have the run D to contain Elliott and the Cowboys.

Jax 20, Was 10. Do I need to comment any more on this game? Kessler giving more than 7 - and it makes sense?

Min 27, Mia 20. I think the Vikings D is overrated and Miami will score enough to make it close. But the Miami D will let up plenty of yards.

Ten 24, NYG 20. The Giants have played well of late, but against who? Bucs, 49ers, Redskins? The Titans are a well coached team and will out-think Shurmur.

Sea 30, SF 20. The Seahawk train will keep rolling. I just can't see how the Niners keep pace here against the balanced Seattle attack.

NE 30, Pit 27. The Pats have the Steelers number. Both teams are desperate - have to go with the better coach here.

LAR 31, Phi 17. Is Foles that much of a downgrade from Wentz? Probably not. However, the Rams will come out and run right over the Eagles and establish dominance.

Car 27, NO 24. It's a confluence of factors - home Monday night underdog, plus this is the Saints' 3rd road game in a row. I know Cam has sucked, but can't go against those factors.

Best bets: 13 of them. Last week: 6-7; overall: 82-94-5
Az +10
Bal -8
TB/Bal under 46.5
Buf -2.5
Buf/Det under 40
Oak +3
Oak/Cin over 45.5
Ind -3
Ten -1
Sea -3.5
Sea/SF over 44
Phi/LAR under 52
Car +6.5

Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-2; overall: 36-31-3
Bal -7.5
Buf -2.5
Ten +2.5
Sea -4.5
Car +6.5

NFL Week 14: Hoarders

Back to the themed picks this week ! Today, we look at one of the standard bedrocks for A&E that opened America's eyes to a new disease - hoarding!

Show: Hoarders

Network: A&E

Time: Weekend mornings

Stars: No regular stars during the series

Ah yes, Hoarders! A look at the inside lives of people that can't get rid of anything and just collect, collect, collect for multiple decades. It's not really a humorous show - it's mostly educational to show how deep in denial (or mentally sick) some of the hoarders really are.

The hour long show focuses on two separate people whose extreme hoarding is at a point to cause massive issues in their life. Usually, it's at a point where the person will lose their kids or will be evicted unless the house is cleaned up. Family members call for help and the A&E comes out to start taping!

The first 20, 30 minutes of the show gives an overview of the current situation - pictures of the living room, bedroom, kitchen - and some background on why this may have happened. The house usually is piled from floor to ceiling with stuff - clothes, collectibles, VCR tapes, etc. There's no room to sit down anywhere in the house, or to walk anywhere - paths over stuff are created to move around. There are no open counter spaces in the kitchens; it's been years since anyone actually have cooked in the kitchen. Sleeping arrangements are sometimes a sheet on a couch or a mattress in a corner of a common room. The saddest cases are when kids are involved and we see their rooms.

A therapist is introduced to talk to the hoarder, to understand the background behind it, and to try to convince the hoarder to move forward with cleaning. The therapist then leads the cleaning process - a professional team comes to help clean out the house (think of 1 800 GOT JUNK) and the team - including family members - try to throw stuff out.

That's when the fun and conflicts begin. The second half of the show usually is about the fights the hoarder has with the family members about what to throw out - beanie babies, clothes, canned goods, cassettes, lamps, etc. It's fascinating to see what people can really get attached to. However, I can understand a bit of it - in our office closet at home, I have my NFL betting notebooks and Vegas notebooks from 2006-on. If anyone asked me to throw those out, I'd be pissed and throw a tantrum.

The endings are not always happy; a lot of episodes end with the process about 75% done since they couldn't make enough process in time for an inspection. We really don't get the follow up story 6 months later to see if the changes that were made lasts, or if the hoarder when right back to fill up the now-cleaned house. I think the show intended to focus more on the psychiatric side of hoarding instead of the "before and after" picture of the clean up.

The show started on A&E in 2009; some of you may be asking "well, who would actually watch this show?" According to Wikipedia, Hoarders was the most-watched premier of any show on A&E, watched by 2.5 million people. It went 9 seasons and ended in 2017.

The one complaint I have about the show is that it seems like perfect fare for late-night TV. It's not a show for the mornings for people with weak stomachs; I don't like seeing maggots in warm fridges while eating my scrambled eggs at 9 am. Put this on at 10 pm!

Anyway - to segue to the Browns, we need to start Hoarding wins immediately. The last 4 games are winnable - Carolina, at Denver, Cincy, and at Baltimore. Is a wild card possible at 8-7-1? No, probably not, but it's great to talk about this again in December.

And I need to start hoarding wins for my picks, especially the Supercontest picks. I think I need to go about 16-4 for the last 4 weeks to have an outside chance at the money. It's not over, but I need a 5-0 or 4-1 week really quick.

To the games:

Buf 24, NYJ 13.  I will continue to sing the praises of Buffalo at home, and Josh Allen is not quitting. Neither are the Bills coaches. The Jets? They had their last hurrah last week.

GB 27, Atl 20. Betting on a bounce back for the Pack after McCarthy was let go. How much conflict was there between McCarthy and Rodgers? We'll find out at 1 pm today.

Hou 30, Ind 20. I don't see the Colts as the team to stop the Texans' juggernaut. They are playing well, especially at home.

KC 27, Bal 23. The Chiefs have the worst run D in the league - and Baltimore has Lamar. Is that enough? Fascinating to see the Ravens' O game plan here.

NE 26, Mia 17. No real clue here. I know the Pats don't play well in Miami, but they should be able to move the ball ok, right?

NO 30, TB 27.  A game the Saints usually have trouble with; the back door will be wide open here for the Bucs.

NYG 24, Was 17. Not sure how the Skins recover from Monday night. Sanchez is so ineffective, and the weapons just aren't there on offense due to injuries.

LAC 27, Cin 20. Anyone seen the Chargers schedule? Emotional game in Pitt last Sunday; Thu night coming up they face the Chiefs. A perfect spot for a let down here.

Den 24, SF 17. Maybe Kyle isn't as good as I give him credit for. The team is playing worse and worse each week.

Dal 23, Phi 17.  I just don't see how the Eagles win this. They are not good - and only won on Monday because of McCoy's injury. Dallas continues their roll.

Az 26, Det 20. The Cardinals are another team that don't seem to have given up yet; Rosen still is learning and trying to show his talent. Detroit lost 3 home games in a row and now go on the road.

Pit 30, Oak 24. I've given up trying to figure out the Steelers this year. And Oakland should be able to move the ball vs. the mediocre pass D for the Steelers.

LAR 27, Chi 24. Lot of sharps are picking the Bears here. I don't see it; don't like Trubisky against a good D like the Rams.

Sea 27, Min 17. Riding the Seahawk train, especially at home. Can't back Kirk Cousins on the road, in Seattle, Monday night, in a game Seattle has to win.

Best bets:  13 of them. Last week: 7-5; overall: 76-87-5.
Buf -4
GB -4
Hou -4
NE/Mia under 48.5
TB +10
NYG -3
Cin +15
Den -3.5
Az +3
Det/Az over 40.5
Dal -3
Oak +10
Sea -3

Supercontest picks: last week: 3-2; overall: 33-29-3
Buf -3
GB -5.5
Cin +14
Az +2.5
Sea -3.5