Happy Opening Day!!!

I usually get excited about baseball a month before the season starts, but not this year. Maybe because it is obvious that the A's are rebuilding this year to get ready for the opening of their new stadium in two years. Or maybe its because of the NBA and college basketball. Anyway, Opening Day is here and I'm excited again for baseball. Below are just a few predictions on the season.

AL East: I'm not buying into the Toronto and Rays uprising in this division. Rays will be improved, and Toronto will be a .500 ball club, but they won't compete against the Sox and Yanks. Looking at the Yanks, I'm worried about their starters. Who will be starting again? Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, and Mussina? Even if Hughes and Kennedy pan out, can Pettitte and Mussina make it the entire way? But all they need to do is go 6 innings, then turn it over to their bullpen. And the Sox? Well Beckett and Schilling are injured, but Colon is pitching well which should lessen the impact. With Manny in a contract year I think he will put up crazy numbers, which will keep them afloat. Prediction: Red Sox

AL Central: Still kicking myself for not placing the Tigers under bet. No bullpen, Willis sucks, and Rogers is done. But that offense is very scary. I don't think that they have enough to compete with the Indians or the White Sox. Yes, the White Sox. They need some breaks with their starters, but their offense is solid and their bullpen is good enough to compete for the Central Title. With that being said, I'm still going to go with the Indians. Haffner has to bounce back right? Cabrera is very interesting, and we should continue to see improvements in both Siezmore and Garko. And then there are the Royals. Offense is improving. Starters are improving. But the bullpen is a mess. Good luck. Prediction: Baring any injuries, I'm going with the Indians.

AL West: For the first time in 9 years, I'm not even going to mention the A's as a title contender. What I am looking forward to with the A's though is a solid year from Street and Harden with the expectation that we unload them to the Yanks or Sox near the trading deadline. This is another good young team that should be spoilers during the stretch run. I'm expecting a .500 season, and anything less would be a huge disappointment. So its really down to the Angels and Mariners. With Sling Blade (Lackey) and Escobar injured, and Colon (Shrek) gone, their pitching is really thin. Almost to the point that it gives me some hope for the A's. They also overpaid for Hunter, which now makes them too deep in the outfield. Garrett Anderson, Rivera, Matthews Jr, Vlad, and Hunter all will need time. And one of their best top of the lineup guys Willits, is on the bench. Scioscia is so over-rated and will cost them too many games. This leaves the door open for the Mariners. If they can't win it this year, then I don't know when they will be able to do it. Even with the addition of Bedard their rotation is still shakey. Their offense is dependent on Ibanez and Beltre continued production and a bounce back from Sexton. Looking at all the holes on all the teams, it is very easy to see a four team race, with all teams right around .500. Prediction: Mariners by default.

Wild Card: White Sox. Don't sleep on this team. If they catch a break with Danks and Floyd, they will be a contender with a solid offense and a strong bullpen.

Red Sox over White Sox

Indians over Mariners

Indians over Red Sox for the AL Pennant.

NL East: If the Mets can't pull this thing out this year, then they should fire Randolph and company and start over. With Pedro, Santana, and company they should cruise to a division title. Marlins are terrible. The Nationals are right there as well. But an interesting fact about their old ballpark, RFK. There were only two opposite field homeruns last year for right handers. Isn't that crazy. What a terrible ballpark!! The new one looks really nice and should help them a little. And why was Gammons so amazed that locker rooms had IPod chargers and WiFi? Not a big deal. Calm down. Prediction: Mets

NL Central: This is what we call crap soup. All these teams have larger than normal holes. Picking the Cubs for me is like betting Black in Roulette. Always seems like a great idea but looking back after 6 reds in a row and $800 later, I always say "What the hell was I thinking!!!" So no Cubs. Astros look interesting, but they lack starting pitching depth. Brewers could have 5 guys blow double digit saves with Turnbow, Gagne, Soloman Torres, Riske, and Mota. This is a disaster waiting to happen. Pirates are just sad. So that leaves me with the Cardinals and Reds. Come on, I hate the Cardinals. Cardinals have no starters, but a decent pen. Am I really going to make a prediction based on the fact that I expect big things from Ankiel? Can't do it. So I'm going with the Reds. Look, they have a great 1-2 punch with a solid number 3. They have a solid pen now that they don't have to depend on David Weathers to close out games. They have great defense up the middle since they finally moved Griffey out of center. They win by default. Prediction: Reds

NL West: This is going to be exciting. Dodgers are loaded with young offensive talent and great pitching. Same could be said of the Diamondbacks. But remember that the Diamondbacks were a statistical anomaly last year, and I don't think that they win as many games, despite adding some strong pitching. Padres are always tough, but they just don't have enough to stick with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Rockies and San Fran will tail off and won't stay with the top two. Prediction: Dodgers

Wild Card: Braves

Dodgers over Braves

Mets over Reds

Mets over Dodgers for the NL Pennant

Mets over Indians for the Series

Saturday in Vegas: Oh My!

Saturday, 8 am

There is nothing better than an early morning walk in Vegas. (And by early, I mean Vegas early - 8, 9 am , not 5 or 6 where it is still the previous night). I stepped out of the Palazzo heading to the Mirage on a bright sunny day, facing a completely isolated strip - for whatever reason, it cleanses the mind and the body.

After texting everyone to see if they wanted action on the Lady Iowa State Cyclones at 9 am that morning - and only getting 2 takers - I headed to the Mirage to place the wager and met Layup there. An open craps table - well hello! However, it didn't go so well and my losing streak continued, and I was reminded why the dealers at the Mirage are substandard. We felt like we were imposing on them as we gambled at the craps table.

I introduced Layup to the tablue Ultimate Texas Hold em game - I started with 100, and left with....120; Layup started with 200 and left with...about 600. He started betting the sucker bonus bets and hit. Good for him.

Back to the Palazzo and the cabana that we reserved for the day. Got there in time with about 4 minutes left in the Iowa State game. We turned it on and for 10 continuous minutes yelled at the TV, imploring the Cyclones (line: -2.5) to cover. There was plenty of foul language there as we yelled for every foul shot to go in as the Cyclones had a slim lead. Some lady named Alison hit 2 free throws with 10 seconds left to go up 3; Ga Tech did nothing and we were all winners in the first game of the day. I went upstairs to put on my swimsuit, and more importantly, my Iowa State Golf T-shirt in celebration.

Sad note: As we were yelling, the guys in the adjacent cabana came running over.

"What are you watching??" they inquired.

When seeing it was women's basketball, they said "Ohhh... and slithered back. I'm sure we were discussed as the degenerate cabana for the rest of the day.

The next 5-6 hours were spent in the cabana, and that was wonderful. Girlie drinks all around! I had at least 5 Banana Daiquiris (with vodka, I said proudly). My only regrets were that 1) I wish I put more on West Virginia (over Duke), and 2) I wish I started making the ref calls earlier in the day. (But that would mean drinking earlier as well). God, I miss referreeing.

Embarassing moment of the trip #42: We all loved Cal -16 vs. UC-Santa Barbara in the first round, so Wiz, Leland and I had money on that game as well. I left with about 2:00 to go in the game in order to place the next round of men's bets.....well, I got lost in the spa and somehow found myself in the offices of the gym at the Venetian. My phone rings as I am trying to find the stairs.

E: "Hello?"

Wiz: "Final score....Santa Barbara 50...."

E: [half drunk, crouching down waiting breathlessly...]

Wiz: "Cal 67!"

E: [yelling] "It's a cover! Woo hoo!"

At that point, 2 staff members come running out of their offices. "May I help you?"

E: "Um...just trying to find the elevator and get to the main casino!"

Random comment: There is nothing more .... exhiliarating? Pathetic? ....than screaming at the top of your lungs seeing the Marist Lady Red Foxes hit three after three and cover a game for you....while you are naked in the shower.....

Dinner is at 7:30 at the MGM; it is 6:45 and I still have to place a bet over at the Mirage. I tell Don and Mike I will meet them there; Layup calls and berates me because "I can't be late".

Boy, I wish Wiz/Leland put a line on this one. Eric leaving the Palazzo at 6:45, having to place a bet at the Mirage and then head down to the MGM.....over/under on the arrival time?

I get to the Mirage at 6:57..... place the bets (LSU -37.5! It's a LAYUP!)

I leave the Mirage at 7:02......

better pick it up a bit... so I jog for a couple of minutes in my golf shirt and Dockers....

I cross Flamingo at 7:10....ok , time to walk....

I am in front of the Bellagio at 7:14...not good, let's jog.....

I'm across from P.H. around 7:18.....let's jog some more....

In front of the Monte at 7:21......ok, let's cool down.....

Enter the MGM casino from the front at 7:26......can I make it?

Jog through the casino, get to the restaurant (in the farthest place in the back!) at 7:29. Success!

Layup immediately offers everyone a shot of Tequila. Out of breath, I thank him, then ask the waiter for a glass of water IMMEDIATELY!

Wow, what a meal. When the first course is lobster and the second is a perfectly-done scallop, it's a wonderful meal. I can't even remember courses 3 and 4.

We said our goodbyes to Kermit, unsuccessfully trying to convince him to "miss" his flight; Layup and company drove to the MGM, so they drove back; Mike, Don and I decided to take the Monorail.

Bad idea.

After getting on, the monorail stopped at the Flamingo. And never restarted. The announcement on the PA system was not good:

"There has been a malfunction with the train. All passengers should please exit immediately."

Well, then. A maintenance worker walked toward the train: we asked him how long this might take.

"It might be a little while." We all got the hint and started walking.

After a 20-minute delay at the Flamingo since someone disappeared into a restroom - remember, Kermit already left, so Mike and I were stuck watching "Mini-Pai Gow" for 20 minutes as someone took his sweet time, we get back to the Palazzo after about an hour.

Layup was nowhere to be found - as he has said, he had a reaction and had to go to bed. Leland also took a short nap that night. But the five of us gambled the rest of the night.....and there were numerous highlights:

- a winning craps session at a $15 table, interrupted by a phone call; I cashed out after that phone call with a purple chip. Should have gotten a picture of that one.

- a blackjack session with all of us and a great dealer, C.C. I had many questionable hands, such as 6,6 vs a 3; a 9 vs. a 2; soft 18 vs. a 9.........she guided me correctly each time. The reason? "I wrote the card!" she exclaimed proudly.

- Saturday nights at a casino are full of random cheers. Wiz and I started grading them like a golf tournament. A mild holler from the 3-card poker table was a Thursday birdie by Carlos Franco; a bust by a blackjack dealer was compared to a Saturday birdie by Phil....and then there was the hot craps table, whose cheers ended up sounding like a 1986 Nicklaus charge.

We all were doing well at the BJ table, so there was no need for any of us to think about moving.

_

After a while, we got up winners; Don and Mike went to bed and Leland reappeared. So Wiz, Leland, Micah and I were roaming the casino around 3 in the morning.....

and a $25 open craps table was there staring us in the face. Why not?

Wow - that's not for the faint of heart. Every roll was a $100 or so roll. Wiz hit an 8 - and we went into a Tiger/Steve Williams high five routine. Micah actually hit a point (a 5, I believe - Wiz's favorite number!), but that was about it for the highlights. It was a cold table, with a couple of hits here and there, but $500 went down the drain. It may be a while before I jump into that pool again.

At 4:30, I could barely keep my eyes open at the BJ table - even when texting Kermit who arrived safely at his house in Cleveland - and I went to bed. I left Wiz, Leland and Micah alone- what kind of trouble could those three get into by themselves?

Friday: Verne disapproves

Friday, 5 am

Wake up after a good 4 hours of sleep - and head to the golf course with everyone.

The golf course was great; my golfing was horrendous. I have numerous excuses for my play, which included no "4"s on the card, plenty of 6's and 7's, and only one good highlight - a 50-foot bomb for birdie on 9 that was still gaining speed as it hit the hole and dropped. (I then did a Hale Irwin, 1990 US Open impression and ran around the green - but alas, there were no spectators to high five).

Anyway, the excuses:

- Kermit distracted me with his tales of women sending him graphic pictures on his cell phone;

- The double sausage & egg sandwich I had at the turn that sat in my stomach ( but boy,was it good)

Well, I will use the excuse that my body just was not responding to any of my requests - but still, it was bad. 94 bad.

The rest of the day is a blur. I remember watching the San Diego-UConn game in the room, then heading down for some gambling. I was walking around the casino when I found Derek and Wiz at one side of the craps table, and Kermit on the other side.

I quickly saw that Derek and Wiz were betting the don'ts, and Mer was on the pass line. Check that - Mer had, on the table:

- a pass line bet with double odds;

- FIVE separate come bets (so he covered the board) all with double odds.

Derek was rolling, and just hit number after number after number. He and Wiz are pissed, as they are rooting for that 7.

"Kermit? What the hell is going on here?"

"I don't know", he laughed. "At this point, I'm not asking any questions.......", as more money is slid toward Kermit.

Derek and Wiz were in no mood for conversation, so I left. Had lunch (at 4 pm - I guess that's lunch) with Micah, as we were in the food court straining to check the scores on a TV that was a good 50 feet away. Another trip to the 40/40 club borught us to the beginning of the Clemson/Villanova game. I was heavy on Clemson and the over (over 144.5; it went up a half point during the day). Seeing Clemson blow the lead made me wonder if anyone was going to check and see if Wiz was alive.......

The final seconds were terrible. Villanova hit 7-of-8 free throws down the stretch; they hit 2 to make ut 75-69 with 6 seconds left. Clemson comes down, jacks a 3 - he gets knocked down - NO CALL. 75-69, the final, as everyone starts screaming.

75 + 69 = 144, just under the 144.5. Argh.

A long 2 1/2 hour dinner later (where I almost fell asleep twice) and then I had to call it a night. My body could not go on anymore, and I'm sure I looked like Verne in the picture.

This is....

a) a tasty morning drink;

b) a way to wake up in the afternoon when you are on 1 3/4 hours sleep;

c) a great way to enjoy Bailey; or

d) an unlikely grave for a casino die that is thrown off the table.

Of course, the answer is d.

Where do I begin?

Wow - what a trip. I'm just starting to get back to normal after the 4-day Vegas trip in which I had a total of, oh, 21 hours of sleep from Wednesday morning to Monday afternoon. I've slept 9-10 hours on Mon and Tue night and still am nowhere near caught up.

So many stories from this trip, and not all are gambling related! Let's start with the diary for the first couple of days and see where that gets us...

Wednesday, 10 pm
Arrive at the casino, and find Kermit. Mer is already down big and is playing the nickel slots as a rest. Hoo boy, this can't be good. He then convinces me to play 3 card poker. That's the first gambling I do this trip - 3 card poker.
Kermit plays the "Pair Plus" only, I play the normal way (ante and then play). The cars are dealt- 3 at a time - to me first, then to Kermit (on 3rd base), then the dealer.
Well, after about 30 minutes of this, I am up about $100. Not a bad way to start! I get up to leave.
"Where are you going?" Kermit says.
I'm up, and going to quit while I'm ahead....
"You're going to mess with the table. Now the dealer is going to get all my cards...and watch, they'll be good ones."
Sure enough, the first hand after I stand up - Mer has nothing, the dealer has a pair. The secodn hand: nothing for Kermit, the dealer has a straight.

I run away from the table.

I find a few others, including Wiz, about 30 minutes later. Wiz and I are walking around, when we get close to the 3 card poker table. Wiz and Kermit have not met, so I wanted to introduce them.

Before I can get within 40 feet of Kermit, all I can see are flying middle fingers at me.

"Kermit, let me introduce you to..."
"You Mother Fucker! You owe me $600!!!"
"What? How?"
"The dealer just had a straight flush! He's been hot since you stood up! That straight flush was 40-1! That's $600!"
A long pause....
"Um, Kermit, have you met Wiz? He's one of Derek's friends..."
"Fuck you...(talking to me, not Wiz). You still owe me $600....."

Well, this is getting off to a nice start. After a disastrous Pai Gow session and a losing Craps sessions, I go to bed around 2, 2:30 on the couch. I set my alarm for 5:30 so I can run over to the Mirage and place the sports bets before golf....

Thursday, 4:15 am
Well, that didn't work. Here I am, wide awake on 1 3/4 hours of sleep. I run over to the Mirage, and then find that the book doesn't open until about 5:45. I get my wagers in , take a shower, get in the car and play in a fivesome with Mike, Don, Kermit and Jeff M, one of Layup's friends. Oh - and Andre, the caddy.

The golf was good - the caddy was a bit superflous - but we were all tired by the back nine. I found out who my real friends were on the 5th hole, however.....

I had a downhill, left-to-right putt for a par of about 4 feet. Now, the left-to-righters are the hardest to make for a right hander, since it is a natural tendency to either a) guide the putter's path to the hole, causing a push, or to b) lift the head up and push as well. These are the putts that take the longest to feel comfortable with early in the season.

Well, here I am, with my back to everyone, and I ease up on the putt and lift up slightly and the ball grazes the right lip and misses. Damn. Then I hear commotion behind me.

"Oh, we made a bet on this putt. Someone won $5."

And dammit, I can't remember now who bet with me or against me.

We get back from golf - Jeff smoked us all (his swing was impressive), and I took a short nap in the room. I woke up in the second half of the Stanford-Cornell game (you don't tell time in Vegas this weekend by a clock, you use basketball games as a reference) and head downstairs.

Another losing craps session and off I went to the book. Placed bets and then came upstairs, finding an open blackjack table. We all - 6 of us? - sit down. Kermit is 3rd base.

Well, Wiz finds himself with a 4-2 (for a total of 6) against a dealer 6. He promptly doubles. He gets a 2 - for a total of 8. Kermit mumbles something about not being a move "by the book", and of course we all lose the hand.

"You don't double on 6!" Kermit argues.
"Yes you do - the dealer has 6 - you want all the money on the table with a 6 showing!" Wiz replies
"Is that what the card says?" asks Kermit. Wiz looks. "No...."
"No... " Kermit repeats.
Wiz protests anyway - "but you should put all your money out there with a 6 showing!"
"Well then maybe you should write your own card, then!"
"Maybe I will!" Wiz responds.......

The sides were drawn. I think I'm on Kermit's side for this one. The card is drawn up for a reason.......

I watch the basketball games in Jay-Z's sports lounge/nightclub where I am clearly the whitest person there, and then we go to dinner. After some more non-descript gambling, I think, we got to bed around 12:30 or so. I have taken my contacts out and am wearing a Browns t-shirt and mesh shorts. I need to take a dump. I open the bathroom stall door...

"Occupied!" shouts a cheery voice from the can. Of course, it is Kermit.
"Mer, how long?" I ask desperately.
"It's not going to be short....."

I pace around the room for about 5 minutes.

"Kermit?"
"Why don't you go downstairs?"

So that's what Don and I do - in our sleepwear, we plod through the casino to do our nightly business.

Still can't think straight

I can't seem to put a timeline together for the trip. Everything is blurring together. My head is still in the clouds. Below are some of the disappointments and lines from the trip.

Disappointments
5. Not gambling enough with Don and Mike. It seemed like I only rolled with Don once and Mike a couple of times. And we played very little BJ together. Maybe it was their choice since Mike basically told me that I was bad luck at the craps table, and both Don and Mike rolled their eyes when I showed up during one session.
4. Getting an allergic reaction right after one of the best meals of my life. Went to Emerils and sat at the chef's table. One of the best experiences of my extensive eating life. We were seated almost in the kitchen with the head chef and wine guy as our waiters. We didn't order anything as the chef would just make different dishes. It was a five course meal with different wines with each course along with dessert and port. Well I guess I had some lime during the dessert portion since I was knocked out for the rest of the night with a "wedding night" type allergic reaction. Ugh....
3. Pop, Lock, and Drop it not catching on during the trip. BOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!
2. Not keeping up with my golf game. Man, I really suck at golf, which basically doesn't make spending $300 on a round that much fun. I live in SoCal for the love of god and can golf all year. Even if I only golfed once to twice a month for the entire year, that would be more than I ever played back in Baltimore when I was at least decent. Now I'm barely breaking 100...if that.
1. Not placing the under bet on the Tigers win total. I couldn't stop thinking about this before the trip and I totally just forgot until now.

Top 5 lines of the weekend
5. Suck a dick
4. Hello Bee
3. In your life have you ever seen such a thing
2a. Fuck the Five!
2b. Come on Nine!
2c. $5 hop on the hard eight!
1. Maybe.....Yes Sir!!!!

First of many...

OK, the first detailed story from Vegas.

Late Friday afternoon Wiz and I bump into each other in the casino and are starting to get a little bored. Lee and Eric are gone upstairs. These two are usually the ones to keep Wiz and I out of trouble.

Bad Idea number 1: Three Card Poker: Wiz watches a little while I get my ass kicked at 3-card poker. This game sucks. Kermit just bets the bonus, drinks, and watches people walk by in the casino. Not a bad game at all to do this with. Getting a little bored, Kermit, Wiz, Micah, and I decide to play some craps.

Bad Idea number 2: $10 Craps-Don't Pass Line: Wiz and I were feeling so bad after getting rocked earlier in the day, that we decided to open up a $10 craps table by just betting the don't pass line. Just imagine four guys, all cheering for a 7. We made sure that nobody else was at the table so we didn't feel that bad. And that is when I caught fire. I couldn't roll a seven to save my life. And then Kermit starts to bet with me on the pass line and the numbers and was making some pretty good money, while the rest of us were losing. Then a guy settles up next to Wiz and drops $1000 into the game and Wiz feels guilty about betting the don't pass, so we all switch over to the pass line, and its gets confusing from there. I ended up leaving in disgust, pissed at Wiz for coming up with the idea, and Kermit for winning.

Bad Idea number 3: Roulette- So I go over to play some roulette. Nothing major, just want to relax and bet some numbers. Wiz comes along and watches. While we are there, red numbers start to hit. I ended up putting $10 on black for one spin, and it comes up red. So I press to $20 the next spin, and it comes up red. Press to $40, red. Press to $80, red. Press to $160, red. At this point, about 13 reds have come up in a row. Wiz is salivating and says that we have to do it one more time. So I decide to press to $320, hold Wiz's hand and wait.......red. I yelled "FUCK" as loud as I could. Not a good thing. Wiz wanted to press again, but at that point, my bankroll was hurting. Then a young little girl comes to the table to put $50 on black. We decide just to put another $100 on black to go with her. Wiz was very clear that we all had to hold hands for good luck. So Wiz grabs her one hand, and I grab her other hand. After about 2 seconds, she drops my hand and I turn to the wheel to see if it hits red again. Wiz, in totally desperation pleads with the girl that she has to hold his hand for good luck. She then tells us that this is her first wager in a casino ever. Wiz goes ballistic. WHY THE FUCK DIDN'T YOU TELL US THIS BEFORE. I WOULD OF UNLOADED IF I KNEW THAT. The dealer waves off the board for no more bets and it lands on black. Finally it hits, but it really doesn't do us much good after $600 earlier.

I pick up in disgust and head up to the room with Wiz. Wiz was livid at the girl for not telling us sooner that she never gambled before. We are so disheveled and a little tipsy that we can't get our key to work for the room. After about 2-3 minutes of trying about 100 times to get into the room, I look up and realize that while we have the room number correct, we are 3 floors off from our room.

And this is the main reason why Wiz and I should never be left alone in the casino. But after Eric's performance on Sunday in the Mirage, I believe he is coming over to the dark side as well.

Just trying to get back to normal...

Ugh. I feel like shit. Not hungover, but just brain dead. It is day two and I still can't think straight. What a wonderful trip. Absolutely amazing. Great room, great people, great dinners, and most of all great gambling memories. Below are just a few to kick things off. I will follow up maybe tonight with more details:

• Opened up a $10 craps table with Wiz, Micah, and Kermit. And we were all playing the don't pass line. The dealers and the pit boss were so confused.


• Wiz and I being left alone unsupervised that cost me $1000. We opened up a $25 craps table and then proceeded to dump money on black at the roulette table. And yes, we lost. There is a great story with the black wager that I will go into more detail later on which involves Wiz and a possible sexual assault case. Just to give you a taste, these words came out of Wiz's mouth to an innocent 21 year old girl playing roulette. "Hold my hand god-dammit"


• Eric and Wiz doing great golf calls for blackjack. Using the terms "Maybe...Yes sir", "In your life", and "What a terrible club selection" was priceless.


• Lee actually rolling extremely well. Made me tons of money at the craps table. He was so hot that he even hit a hard 8 hop bet.


• Eric being nicknamed The Cooler at the craps table.


• Micah being called the The Cooler with everything else.


• Kermit vs. Wiz discussion at the blackjack table. This rivaled my discussion with Lee's brother in law from two years back. Priceless.


• Wiz telling the BJ dealer "be gentle...just the tip" whenever he had a 13-16.


• Hello Bee!!!


• Eric's weird love affair with a 65 year old Texas Hold em dealer.


• The Whale at the Mirage. No not a big gambler, but a 350 pound women that wouldn't leave Eric, Wiz, or I alone.


• Grandma Moses who couldn't deal for shit while Wiz and I played high limit blackjack. It took her at least 3 tries per card to get it to come out. BRUTAL!!!!!


• Its great to see that "Backdoor Action" will never go out of style.


• Eric doing the actual ref calls for a basketball game in front of everyone in the cabana on Saturday.


• The lovely Alison Lacey from the Iowa St Lady Cyclones making clutch free throws at the end of the game to cover the spread by one.


• Still trying to figure out how one losses a wedding ring by himself at a Pai Gow table.

Ahoy Sailor

Arod, are you ready for Vegas? Oh, he's ready.

Thank you Jon for the picture!!!

March of Dimes

For those of you who want to donate to a very good cause, please visit my website. Last year, Farmers Insurance Group was the second largest donator to the March of Dimes. Please help out the little babies. And no, the money won't be funnelled into my Vegas account.

100 Hours in Vegas

It hit me last night that the Vegas trip for me is about 100 hours long - from Wed at 9 pm to Mon at midnight when my plane shuts the doors. 99 hours in Vegas.

So - instead of laying out the financial budget for the trip, why not list out the time budget for these 99 hours? How can I maximize the gambling time for those 99 hours?


"Planned" losses for the trip:
Sleep - 4x6 hrs? - 24 hours. I think this is a good guess at it. Does it include the nap/passing out at the cabana on Saturday?
Travel to/from Airport - 4 hours
Meals - 10 hours
Golf - 14 hours total
"Watching tv" in the Palazzo bathroom - 1 hour (possibly more)
Total planned losses: 53 hours

So that leaves 46 free hours.
"unplanned", wasted time:
Wandering around the casino/book trying to shop lines/talk to janitors to elicit tips on games: 4 hours
Watching games, hoping for Portland St to score a meaningless basket in the last 30 second to lose 100-44, thus covering the over: 10 hours
Playing the role of a beached whale, sunning myself at the cabana and being a body double for the "before" person on the NutriSystem commercials: 4 hours

That leaves 28 hours for gambling. So if I stay under $50 loss per hour, we should be fine!

(By the way, my body still hasn't adjusted in coming back from France. The last three mornings I have woken up at 5:30 wide awake. I better adjust soon, or else I'll be waking up at 3 or so in Vegas every morning - just in time to see Don come in from poker and strip in front of me. *shiver*)

Two days and counting

The feeling for this trip is beginning to change for me. I have been excited for about one month and it is now being replaced by a level of focus and determination that I really have never felt before a Vegas trip. The reason for this is that my number one goal for this trip is to win. Yes, I want to have fun and hang out with everyone, but in the end I won't be truly happy unless I come back a winner. I feel like I have the bankroll, along with a solid game plan to come out a winner. So onto the budget. Note: these amounts are subject to change depending on some additional input I might receive from the readers and my brother.

Sportsbook ($600): I strongly urge everyone to call Eric before the trip and let him walk you through his post on how to come up with what to bet on each game. It was an eye opening experience. While I was drawing out the equations on a big white board that I had when I used to run a book, it all started to make such clear sense. A couple of things I found out while doing this:

• My probability of each game should be below 50%. What a shocker eh? I put it at 40%, but the peanut gallery (Carol) chimed in that it should be around 20%. Thanks for the vote of confidence honey.
• By changing my P to a lower percentage, I can already take into account having some bad stretches. Makes me feel comfortable to then wager on my allotted games and know that in the end, I should be well within my budget.
• I said I was going to only bet on 10 games a day, which is actually an increase over last year. With that being said, I already like 11 games on Thursday and that is without the NIT, Women's games, and the NBA. Will have to do a little more research on this.

Craps ($2000)- Yes, this is my biggest allotment of cash to one game. I absolutely love craps. And yes I will be playing $25 craps for one session. Why do I have a feeling that all of us will be at this craps table by ourselves with Eric, Don, Mike, and Kermit on one end and Lee, Micah, Wiz, and I on the other end and it will be a pass vs. don't pass war for the ages. This will probably end with a fist fight between a couple of us.

BJ ($1000)- I have about 6 BJ cards that I will be putting into everyone of my jeans and shorts so I will never be without one for the trip.

Roulette ($600)- I have added a cushion in on this budget for a round of stupid bets with Wiz.

Pai Gow ($300)- I have no idea on how much to budget here. I went with $300 last year so I'm going with the same again since it seemed to work out.

Wheel ($200)- Two sessions allotted.

Other ($300)- I have set aside some money for the spa.

Vegas Planning

Here is the schedule for the games on Thursday and Friday, to help with the planning for this week:

Thursday
Tip Offs around 9:20-9:40 PT
3 Xavier - 14 Georgia
1 Kansas - 16 Portland St
5 Michigan St - 12 Temple
Tip Offs around 11:30-12:00 PT
6 Marquette va 11 Kentucky
6 Purdue vs 11 Baylor
9 UNLV vs 9 Kent St
4 Pittsburgh vs 13 Oral Roberts
Tip Off at 2:00 PT
3 Stanford vs 14 Cornell
Tip Offs around 4:10 - 4:25 PT
6 USC vs 11 Kansas St
2 Duke vs 15 Belmont
4 Washington St vs 13 Winthrop
8 BYU vs 9 Texas A&M
Tip Offs around 6:40-6:55 PT
3 Wisconsin vs 14 CS-Fullerton
7 West Virginia vs 10 Arizona
5 Notre Dame vs 12 George Mason
1 UCLA vs 16 Miss Valley St

Friday
Tip Offs around 9:10-9:25 PT
2 Tennessee vs 15 American
7 Gonzaga vs 10 Davidson
7 Miami-FL vs 10 St Mary's
5 Drake vs 12 Western Kentucky
Tip Offs around 11:45-12:00 PT
7 Butler vs 10 South Alabama
2 Georgetown vs 15 UMBC
2 Texas vs 15 Austin Peay
4 Connecticut vs 13 San Diego
Tip Offs around 4:10-4:25 PT
6 Oklahoma vs 11 St Joseph's
4 Vanderbilt vs 13 Siena
8 Mississippi St vs 9 Oregon
1 North Carolina vs 16 Mount St Mary's/Coppin St
Tip Offs around 6:40-6:55 PT
8 Indiana vs 9 Arkansas
3 Louisville vs 14 Boise St
5 Clemson vs 12 Villanovs
1 Memphis vs 16 TX-Arlington

The first thing that stands out is that Don and Mike will be rushing to play fast in order to get back to see the Purdue game. If we play in 4 hours, we'll get back by around 11:45 or so - just after tip. Unless Eric decides to go into stall mode on the course....

It's NIT Time!

We will be running the annual NIT Pool (what is it, the 6th annual?) for us degenerates.

The brackets can be found here at this link.

As usual, the scoring system is:

1 pt for 1st round winners
2 pts for 2nd round winners
4 pts for 3rd round winners (that's your final four)
8 pts for 4th roudn winners
16 pts for the Champion.

Tiebreaker: total points in championship game

$5 entry. All entries must be sent to me before 6 pm Eastern on Tuesday, March 18.

Down the stretch they come

Quick thoughts on the bracket:

1. Everyone is up in arms about Arizona. Count them in for one win.
2. UCLA will not make it out of their regional. Whenever they say that someone has an easy avenue to the final four, they usually end up stumbling early on.
3. On the flip side, man look at the UNC regional. I was waiting on taking TN and Lousiville to the final four if they were all in separate regionals.
4. Portland State got screwed. They are a great team and they go up against Kansas? Whatever.
5. UMBC- they have some size and are a pretty solid team. Not calling an upset here, but I think they can cover.
6. Fullerton- Got burned last year with LBC against TN. The Big West struggled outside of their conference, so I'm just going with the under in this game.
7. I'm looking for an easy upset, but I can't really find one, which is good. Usually I'm all excited about one and I get destroyed. I am very interested in San Diego vs UConn. San Diego has proved that they can play on the road and win. Maybe??
8. Finally I just want to say great job to Nike. These commercials that they have recently pumped out are outstanding!!!

I'd rather be thinking about Vegas

Ugh. That's how I feel this afternoon after going out in San Diego last night for a birthday party. The party was at a club called the Stingaree which was a typical high end club. It took my friend and I about 20 minutes to figure out how to actually get inside and up to the VIP table. Once there it was pretty amazing. I usually hate going to clubs, but its a little bit different when you have the following:

• Bottle Service- Bottles that are pre-purchased and at your table, allowing you to bypass the packed bar. Come to find out that each bottle was about $450. Why?
• Elevated roped off area- We had our own security to keep the riff raff away from our elevated sofas and tables. Felt very important wearing my one "going out" shirt.
• FREE- Every once in a while Carol and her friends want to go out to clubs to go dancing. The worst part is waking up the next morning to find the 4 or 5 massive credit card receipts and realize that it was the biggest waste of money. This time, the birthday girl's boyfriend paid for everything. Total cost of the night was $8 for me.

Got home around 2 am and then Carol and I spent the next hour looking for an open fast food joint that was open. After hitting every major store, only Del Taco was open. After three tacos and a large chili fries, I was passed out and on my way to a massive hangover the next morning.

And the best part of the night had to be the people watching. How many sluts can you fit into one club in San Diego? About 500 by my count. And you can probably add another 300 douche bags as well.

Lakers

Just heard the greatest line by Jeff Van Gundy. After a miss by a scrub on the Lakers, he states that he used to tell his bench players when they would get into the game, "You're open for a reason. The other team wants you to shoot, so don't shoot the ball." How true is that.

Why is there cakebatter in my hair?

First off, how much courage does one man have to pull this off? Seriously!!! Secondly, Eric, don't fall asleep on the way out to Vegas. I heard the guy sitting next to you is a little sketchy.

Statistical Homework for the weekend

I think I have found an answer to a question that has been bugging me regarding sports wagering. I hope you all can find this statistical treatise useful for next week.

Given that you have $X amount available to bet on sports, and you are picking N games over a finite time period, and you accept R% risk that your cash may be lost on these game, then what is the optimal bet size that you should make?

First, we need to establish the probability p of a successful bet. What should p be:
p =
0.5 for normal uses
0.57 for Eric's NFL picks, 2005-2006
0.41 for Eric's NFL picks, 2007
0.37 if your name is Leland
0.75 if you are Kermit and betting against any games where Wiz and Eric agree

Each bet is a sample from the binomial distribution.
The expected wins are Np.
The standard deviation for the # of wins is the square root of (N)(p)(1-p)

So if you are someone like Eric in 2003, N would be 60 and p=0.5, the expected # of wins is 30 with a std deviation of sqrt(15), or about 4.

OK - now as the number of games increase, this approaches the bell curve distribution. That's the key here. You can now use the bell curve to have a confidence that you won't lose more than a certain number of games.

You have a 3% or less chance to lose more than (Np)-2 std deviations. You only have a 15% chance to lose more than (Np)-1 std deviation. We'll call D to be the # of deviations you are willing to accept. A 10% chance is 1.3 std deviations.

Given the D you choose, you now have that confidence in going having (Np-D*Std Dev) wins and (Np+D*Std Dev) losses.

You then use this to figure out your maximum loss. Your maximum loss given your D is:
(Np - D*(Std Dev))*B - (Np + D(Std Dev))*(B*1.10), where Std Dev is the standard deviation you figured out above.

Now you set this maximum loss to your bankroll and solve for B - voila! Your optimum unit bet size!

For example, Layup has $500 to work with and wants to bet 16 games (5 mens, 10 womens, with a double unit on the Lady Boilers). He is willing to take 15% risk.

We assume he does not listen to Leland and his p for each game is 50%.

Expected wins: Np = 8
Std deviation: sqrt(N*p*(1-p)) = sqrt(16*0.25) = 2

Now, his D for 15% risk is 1. So his worse case is (8-2) wins and (8+2) losses, with 15% risk. In other words, he is taking a 15% chance that he will not do worse than 6-10.

What would Layup bet to be 6-10 and lose his bankroll, $500?
6B - 11B = 500; B = 100.

So therefore he will make $100 bets.

It can be shown that if Layup was more conservative and took only 3% risk, his unit bet would then be only $54.34. This will be an exercise for the reader. (I've always wanted to say that.....)

"Well", you say, "he may go 1-6 and be out of money by 2:00 pm on Thursday!". That's the 15% risk. Or that's the alcohol making the picks. Or Don is whispering "Big Ten" in his ear all weekend.

Goals for the trip

We talked about what you are looking forward to....but what are your goals for Vegas week?

My goal is to.....

1) Open the trip with a Tom Collins
2) Go 60% in my basketball picks. That means going 14-10 or so for 24 games.
3) Avoid a "Black XXXday", like Black Friday in 2006 or Black Saturday in 2007
4) "Take Over" a table one time during the weekend (like the Monte Carlo table, 2006 or the infamous Pai Gow table in 2007)
5) Beat everyone in golf by at least 3 shots on one of the two days
6) Get drunk on the course one of the two days. I still smile when I think of Mer and I on that public course, drinking vodka tonics for 5 straight hours....I then 3-putt 17 and 18 to lose by 1 (I think)...we then find a podunk casino, play craps for 3 hours, drive back (Mer was in no shape to drive, and I was worse), trade text messages with Kermit's (ex) stripper girlfriend....then make an ass of myself at dinner..... ahhhhhh
7) "Win" (or "lose"?) at Credit Card Roulette. My name is not being picked. Do we have a limit?
8) Stay at a $25 Pai Gow table for more than 1 hour.
9) Have enough to take a stab at a $25 Craps table session.....gulp
10) Drink patterns at a table:
- if before 9 am, coffee; after the coffee, Kahlua and Cream
- between 9 am and 6 pm: water and Daiquiris
- after 6 pm: Mr. Tom Collins!
11) Get to know the Venetian sports book ticket man by name
12) stay disciplined and avoid any World Wars (see 2003)
13) shout "$80,000" once
14) say "Hello, Bee" at least 10 times
15) yell "Backdoor Action" as many times as possible