IDIOT!!!!

This is why Bush and Rove aren't worried. Its because idiots like this that come out for now reason and light the fire under the Republican base. Why would he say this and then not apologize? Blows my mind. Below is an excerpt from Instapundit.


"What struck me about this comment beyond the obvious fact that it is insulting to our troops, is just how politically incompetent John Kerry is. Here we are, a week before Election Day, Democrats are favored to win back control of the House and possibly the Senate, so you'd think it would make sense for the party's leaders to play it safe. Republicans have tried very hard to convince voters that Democrats don't support our troops, a charge that Democrats have been countering by saying that they do support the troops, only that they oppose the war and want to bring the troops home. But in this video Kerry, the party's most recent candidate for President and one of it's most recognizable figures, is out there calling troops fighting in Iraq a bunch of morons. The RNC should run an ad featuring this video in every competitive race in the country. Just like his "I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it" helped Republicans portray him as a flip-flopper, Kerry's recent remark succinctly captures what Republicans have been trying to say about Democrats all along--that they are anti-military and can't be trusted on national security."


And then he comes out with a half ass response. Another clip from Instapundit that wraps all of this up nicely:

I’ll bet Senator Clinton absolutely loves watching her potential ’08 rival shoot himself in the foot. BTW, I’m another National Merit Scholar serving in the active duty military. I missed 4 questions on the SATs. But the real insult to my intelligence came when Senator Kerry tried to pretend he was talking about Bush.

Laura? Let's make a deal

The latest CNN polls are out for the Senate. It's just one poll, but it shows that:
- Allen is now losing in VA
- Corker is now up 5-7 in TN
- The MO race is a toss up.
It did not poll the MD race, where all polls show that Steele is closing. (and if you believe that Washington post poll with those internals, then you probably listen to Stuart Scott for your sports info, too...)

Laura - tell you what. I'll be OK with Allen going down in VA if Corker beats the vastly overrated Ford in TN and Steele beats the "Weekend at Bernie's" candidate, Ben Cardin. Deal?

2006 Election Preview: The House

This is the last post in the 2006 Election Preview series. I won't be around the computer much up until Election day - going to San Diego to see Derek and the Browns this weekend! - so here is a quick preview of the House and the key races.

By the way, we hope to be liveblogging from the basement on Election Night. Stay tuned for that.

The math seems simple - the Democrats need to pick up 15 seats to win control of the House. By most counts, there are about 8-10 seats that are Rep now that look like they will go Democratic; there are about 20-30 Republican tossup seats that could go either way; and an additional 20-40 Republican seats that is leaning Republican now, but could change if a huge wave is coming.

Conversely, the Democrats have very little to worry about in terms of defending their seats. At worst, they have 10 seats that could be seen as in play, and it wouldn't shock me if they kept all 10.

So - the toss-up seats will determine control of the house, and if they broke 50/50, the Democrats would take control by about 5-10 seats. However, history shows that in exceptional years (think 1992, 1994, and 2002) most of the toss ups go one way. So - with that in mind - will the anti-Bush wave sweep those Republican tossups out? Or will the fear of Pelosi coupled with the superior Get-Out-The-Vote ground effort that the Republicans have fool the pollsters once again?

Here are the key states that need to be watched:

1) Connecticut (Districts 2,4,5). There are 3 vulnerable R reps here - all are veteran reps (Chris Shays, Nancy Johnson are two) who are relatively liberal and have withstood challenges before in this state. It is thought that the Lieberman independent candidacy will bring out more R-leaning independents to vote for Lieberman and, in turn, vote for the moderate R congresspeople.
Best case for the Democrats: they could win all 3; if they get 2, that is a huge step forward for 15.
For the Republicans: They could win all 3. If they lose more than 1, it's not good.

2) Florida. (Dist. 13, 16,22). District 13 is Foley's seat; the Rep's won a court battle that allowed signs to be put up at polling places stating that a vote for Foley (who is still on the ballot) is a vote for his replacement. Two more districts (both R) are at risk, one is Katherine Harris' old seat (16).
Best case for D: Win 2 - Foley's and one more.
Best case for R: Most have written off Foley's seat, and it is possible that they can come back and win it; but no one is couting on it. Win 2 here and the R's are OK.

3) Georgia: (Dist 8, 12). This is a big one for the Democrats; these seats are held by 2 Democratic freshman congressmen facing R challengers who once held the seat.
Best case for D: Win both.
Best case for R: If they can pick off 1 here, that's a victory.

4) Indiana (Dist 2, 8, 9). This is one of the ground zeroes right now for the house. (This, OH and PA). Dist 8 is Western IN (Terre Haute, Evansville) in which the incumbent has consistently run campaigns with no money (he refuses to take political committee money) but somehow wins every year since 94. His death has been predicted more than once. In dist 2 (South Bend), we have a 2 term R congressman fighting for his life against a tough challenger. Dist 9 (Bloomington, SE Indiana - think Argosy and Grand Victoria, Derek) has a freshman who beat an incumbent in 04; the D incumbent is back for a rematch.
Best case for D: They could take all three, but 2 is fine with them.
Best case for R: They've already written dist 8 off. If they win 2 and 9, it's a victory.

5) Kentucky(Dist 2, 3,4). Two R-leaning districts (#2, and #3) and a tossup. District 3 is Carol's parents' district in Louisville; Anne Northrup is the R incumbent who was elected in 1998. Every single year, the D's target this district and every year the national media picks her seat to say "watch this...if she loses, the D's are in for a big night". She hasn't lost yet. She may this year. District 4 is the south side of Cincinnati; there are commercials for these two non-stop on my TV. The Republican is a freshman who won an open seat in 04; the Democrat was the rep who served here from 98-04, but resigned keeping his term limit promise. One can debate whether that was noble or gullible. So he's back.
Best case for D: They're hoping for one.
Best case for R: If they don't win all 3, I think this is a sure sign that the house will go D.

6) New York: (Dist. 20, 24, 25, 26,29) - all upstate R districts. I know nothing about any of these except for #24- Tom Reynolds is the R rep who is part of the leadership team and he is getting major heat for the Foley scandal.
Best case for D: If they get 3 out of these 5, we're looking at a 30-40 seat wave.
Best case for R: I think they've written off #24. If they get the other 4, they can still keep the house.

7) Ohio: (Dist 1, 2, 15, 18). Boy, I have a lot of connections to eachof these districts.
Dist 18 - home of the Apple Valley golf tournament in Mt Vernon... this was Bob Ney's old seat; Ney was in the R leadership but was indicted for his dealings in the Abramoff scandal and resigned. Two lackluster candidates here.
Dist 15 - (Columbus, Marysville, home of my in-laws); solid R district but the rep, Deb Price, is on the leadership and she is getting hounded at home for Iraq. I haven't seen much polling here, but many say it is a tossup.
Dist 1 - West Cincinnati, Jeff W (brother-in-law)'s home - This is a typical 50/50 R/D district with an R rep since 94; the rep's connections to Bush are hurting him. The D candidate has shown nothing but negative ads against the incumbent. Ads are flying for this on Cinci TV.
and finally
Dist 2 - East Cincinnati - Don's home. A 65-70% R district with possibly the dumbest congressperson out there, Jean Schmidt. Elected last year in a special election, she's the one who called Jack Murtha a coward on the floor. Don hates her, with good reason. The D challenger is a complete unknown and I haven't seen any commercials for her. I did see a couple of ads against her, though. Leaning Republican - however, if Schmidt loses, I think Don will ship a bottle of wine from his collection to every reader of this blog in celebration.
Best case for D: They'd drink Don's win for a week if they can get 3.
Best case for R: Losing 1 (the Ney seat) is expected, although it's possible they can win it. They have to win at least 3, though, to have a shot at the house.

8) PA (Dist 6, 7, 8,10): These are all Philly suburbs. Apparently, one of the R incumbents cheated on his wife (Dist 10); another had FBI agents raid his daughter's house for tax evasion (Dist 8). The other 2 are suburbian districts with concerns about the war.
Best case for D: 2 are expected; 3 would be cherries on the sundae.
Best case for R: If the losses are limited to one of these four, they would be ecstatic.

Now, if things are still close, two more districts will decide the house:

9) New Mexico #1 (Alburquerque) - Heather Wilson (R) is the twin of Anne Northrup (from KY #3, above); every year she is in a tight race and the media calls it a "bellweather" race; she has won every year since 98. Again, if she survives this time, it would be a good sign for the R's.

10) Finally, we have North Carolina #11 (Asheville, W Carolina). The Republican incumbent is a rugged guy but has been dogged by some corruption allegations; the Democrats have recruited an alledgedly seriosu candidate....

Heath Shuler.

The fate of the House of Representatives of the world's superpower could fall on the shoulders of Heath Shuler.

Week 8 Picks: Danger Price

Danger Price is most likely one of them ore cheesier pricing games on TPiR, and that's saying something. Basically, the contestant is shown four prizes and one price. The goal is to pick the three prizes that don't cost the "Danger Price" - if you avoid the Danger Price, you win!

There are a lot of Danger Price games on the board this week - they are traps! Games that are just too tempting to take....avoid them! Don't pick the $950 Washer & Dryer!

With that, here are the predictions for week 8:

Phi 23, Jax 20. Don't do it! Jacksonville is much better than what they showed last week.

GB 27, Az 24. I'm not sure who is going to win, but this should be a fun game to watch.

KC 17, Sea 13. I am less and less impressed with Seattle each week. Us owner of Shaun Alexander in fantasy are getting mighty nervous.

Chi 31, SF 10. Yes, I may be falling into the trap here, but Chicago will be anxious to get the taste of the Az game out of their mouth.

NO 17, Bal 13. We'll see about McNair here. I'd love to see the Ravens lose here, but I'm not convinced it will happen.

Hou 20, Ten 17. Kicking the habit for good! A surprisingly good game.

NYG 21, TB 10. There will be a slight Giants hangover from Monday night, but they should pull this out.

Atl 24, Cin 20. Lot of wind tomorrow down here in Cinci. Atlanta impressed me a lot last week - and this is a worse defense.

SD 16, Stl 13. A field goal frenzy. Don't do it! The Rams D is pretty good and should shut down the Chargers somewhat.

Den 20, Ind 17. I thought Indy was a lock, but reconsidered since the game is in Denver - and Peyton does not play well against good D's outside.

Pit 27, Oak 10. Back to the cellar you go, Oakland.

Cle 24, NYJ 20. The weight of Carthon is lifted. This will tell a lot about the Browns- is the 1-5 start mainly due to the excruciatingly hard schedule, or are they truly a 1-5 team? Don't answer that.

Car 23, Dal 13. Carolina at home vs. Tony Romo? Uh oh, this may be a trap.....

Min 27, NE 24. What's the rule, class? Always take the Monday Night Home Underdog.

Best bets:
Last week: ugh. Not a good week for either one of us.
Eric: 5-11-1; overall: 58-48-6
Derek: 5-11; overall: 50-61-1

16 best bets:
Jax +7
Az/GB Over 44 1/2
Sea/KC Under 36 1/2
Chi -16
Bal/NO Under 37
Hou +3
TB/NYG under 40 1/2
Atl +3.5
Stl +9.5
SD/Stl Under 45
Pit -9
Cle/NYJ Over 37
Car -5
Dal/Car Under 41
Min +2
NE/Min Over 39

And if I have a good week, here is my Halloween costume (from the old set of Danger Price in the early 80s:)

College Football Ramblings

Wow. Its amazing how gun shy one gets after getting raped the weekend before in sports betting. I've lost all confidence. Crazy. And its a shaky morning. Onto the picks:

Cincy -6.5
Vandy -9
Purdue +3
GA Tech -5
Kansas -2

And that's it. I took a tease last night with Tulsa and ND and Tulsa had an amazing comeback, but ND is currently struggling with Navy. Ugh. I might add some more on tonight depending how things go. And Eric I know that I'm posting this late, but you can check with Jeremy and these got in on Friday, but I just haven't had the time to post.

Onto to the ramblings:

1. As I posted last weekend, I had to go to a filipino wedding. Started at 2:00pm and I left early at 10:00pm right as they cut the cake. There were at least 6 speeches that lasted a total of 40 minutes at the reception and they were all terrible. It seemed as if everyone in the wedding party got up and said some things. The food was good and they had a keg of Hef, so it wasn't too bad. I ended up sitting at one of the head tables with the mother of the bride and all of her relatives. Very strange. A supervisor of mine ended up showing up so after 6 hours I wasn't alone, which was a good thing. In the end, it wasn't that bad.

2. Had a slew of interviews this week, with the best one being a gay guy that work for Disneyland and had one of the biggest knots in his tie. This thing went from his neck down to the middle of the first and second button on his shirt. I couldn't stop staring at it and thinking why did his boyfriend let him out of the house looking like that. And then I ended up hiring a guy named Peter Schwartz, mainly because I love calling him "The Schwartz" to everyone. Its the small things that keep me going right now at work.

3. Wedding Plans are slowly coming together. Hey High School group (including Ariel and Ben), make sure you reply to the evite on reserving the house. You will be staying at the place were the reception is located.

4. I have to tell this story about Austin, eventhough he probably doesn't want me to. He already has dated a girl whose ex boyfriend was Justin Fargas (my Madden MVP two years ago) and now he went out on a date last week with someone who dated Shug Knight for three years. I know this girl and I'm shocked. And that's not the good part. When he asked her how they met, she said at MC Hammers house. I could write all day about this, but I think this speaks for itself.

Jeff Weaver, WS MVP vs. the ending to the Prestige

Who can explain either of these events? Derek? Rumsfeld, Cami? I need answers.

2006 Governor's Races Preview

Before we go onto the least interesting section of the 2006 election, we have a news flash from Maryland.

The NAACP held a debate tonight for the Senate candidates. There was a no-show.

It was Ben Cardin. Rep. Cardin did not show up for the event.

I am starting to have a feeling that Steele may win in MD after all.

Anyway, onto the Governor's races. Currently, Rep's hold 28 offices, Dem's hold 22. 36 state offices are up this year; of the 14 that are not, 6 are held by R's and 8 by D's.

It is certain that the Dem's will pick up a few, but there are a lot of toss-up races out there.

In order for the R's to retain the majority of the governorships (25 or 26), they've got to win a lot of the tossups. Here is the rundown of the Governor's races and how they could get to 26:

Solid Republican:
7. CT: Jodi Rell (R) vs John DeStefano - Rell a solid 20+ lead and very popular.
8. HI: Linda Lingle (R) vs Randy Iwase
9. NE: David Heineman (R) vs David Hahn
10. SD: Mike Rounds (R) vs. Jack Billion. Nice name.

Likely Republican:
11. TX: Rick Perry (R) is an incumbent that is garnering 35% of the vote, and is likely to win in a landslide. How? A wild 4 way race in Texas. Perry is facing off against:
- the Democratic nominee, Chris Bell
- a singer named Kinky, Kinky Friedman
- and a self-proclaimed "Grandma" candidate, Carole Strayhorn
Unbelievably, the last two candidates are independents and getting 10-20% of the vote each! It is conceivable that the Democratic nominee can finish 4th in this race.
12. SC: Mark Sanford (R) vs Tommy Moore
13. AL: Bob Riley (R) vs Lucy Baxley
14. VT: Jim Douglas (R) vs Scudder Parker. Amazing that this state - home of Ben N Jerry's - has a REpublican governor who is popular.

Leaning Republican:
15. ID: Butch Otter (R) vs Jerry Brady. Watch this race - this is an open seat and Brady is closing fast. Another Western Democrat that could win and make headlines.
16. CA: Arnold Schwartzenegger (R) vs Phil Angelides. Amazing that the Democrats in CA can't run a better campaign or put up a better candidate. Arnold is cruising to victory.
17. GA: Sonny Perdue (R) vs Mark Taylor
18. AK: Sarah Palin (R) vs Tony Knowles. Knowles is a old two-time Governor trying to win his job back against newcomer Palin.
19. FL: Charlie Crist (R) vs Jim Davis. Open seat here, as Jeb Bush is not running. Polls show this race tightening; another to watch.

Toss-ups - 8 of them!
20. RI: Donald Carcieri (R) vs Charles Fogarty. Carcieri is the incumbent; will he drag Chafee with him over the finish line or will the anti-Bush vote drown out both Chafee and Carcieri?
21. MN: Tim Pawlenty (R) vs. Mike Hatch. Eerily similar to the MD Governor's race; a somewhat popular incumbent running against the tide in the worst possible year for republicans.
22. NV: Jim Gibbons (R) vs Dina Titus. Not sure why this is a tossup by some; Gibbons is up 5-8 in most polls.
23. MD: Bob Ehrlich (R) vs Martin O'Malley. I still believe that a governor with an approval rating of 48% (in the last poll I saw) will win. For perspective, Arnold has a approval rating of 43% - and he is cruising.
24. WI: Mark Green(R) vs Jim Doyle. The first of a few Democratic incumbents in trouble. This will go downto the wire.
25. IA: Jim Nussle (R) vs Chet Culver. Two strong candidates running for an open seat in a state that is dead purple. Just what you'd expect.
26. MI: Dick DeVos (R) vs Jennifer Granholm. Another Democratic incumbent in some trouble, given the depression that Michigan is in.
27. OR: Ron Saxton (R) vs. Ted Kulogonski. The Democratic incumbent seemed to be in a battle, but looks like he may hang on by 3-5 points.

That's about it. I can't see the Republicans getting any more than 27 governorships. Most experts are putting them at 22-24. That seems about right.

For the Democrats:
Leaning Democrat:
28. AR: Mike Beebe (D) vs Asa Hutchison. Beebe is up in all polls by about 8-10.
29. CO: Bill Ritter (D) vs Bob Beauprez. Not much here.
30. IL: Rod Blagojevich (D) vs Judy Barr Topinka. Blagojevich is VERY unpopular and has some hint of corruption swirling around him (see, he is from Chicago), but the Illinois R party is so weak....
(how weak is it?)
It is so weak that Alan Keyes was their Senate candidate 2 years ago - and got 22 %.
Any other year, Rod would be vulnerable - it's not going to happen here.
31. ME: John Baldacci (D) vs Chandler Woodcock. I'm a good Republican and all, but even I would have a hard time pulling a lever and voting for a person named Chandler Woodcock.

Likely Dem:
32. MA: Deval Patrick (D) vs Kerry Healey
33. PA: Ed Rendell (D) vs Lynn Swann. In the annals of Politics, they may write a chapter on the worst run campaigns. Number 1 would be George Allen's campaign in Virginia this year; Swann's would be #2. He made misstep after mistake in the summer and early fall and fell behind big time early on. He has not made it up.
34. OH: Ted Strickland (D) vs Ken Blackwell.
Let me tell you about Ohio. The current Governor (Bob Taft) was indicted for ethics violations in 2004 or so. Instead of resigning, he fought (and lost) but is still in office. His approval rating is 15%. Taft personally has overseen the demise of the Republican party in Ohio. Because of him, they will lose the governorship (duh), a good senator in Dewine, and possible 2-4 House seats.
Strickland is a great candidate - he is from rural Southeastern Ohio, not a liberal union Northeast Ohio stalwart - and comes off as having conservative values. Blackwell, down 20 in the polls now, has thrown the gay card out by pretty much insinuating that Strickland is gay - even though Strickland is married with 2 kids. Just terrible.
By the way, yours truly never voted for Bob Taft. In 1998, I voted for the Democrat, Tim Hagan, who led the sin tax effort up in Cleveland to get Jacobs Field built. In 2002, I voted for the Libertarian candidate (and even had a sign in my yard for him).

See- I can spot a rat.

Safe Democrat:
35. NY: Eliot Spitzer (D) vs John Faso. It's hard to believe that it has been 12 years since Mario Cuomo was the last D to be governor of NY.
36. AZ: Janet Napolitano (D) vs Len Munsil
37. KS: Kathleen Sebelius (D) vs Jim Barnett
38. NH: John Lynch (D) vs Jim Coburn
39. NM: Bill Richardson (D) vs John Dendahl
40. OK: Brad Henry (D) vs Ernest Istook
41. TN: Phil Bredesen (D) vs Jim Bryson
42: WY: Dave Freudenthal (D) vs Ray Hunkins

It is amazing to see how many D's are governors of Red states (KS, WY, TN, OK), and in turn, how many Republicans are governors of Blue states (VT, RI, MD, CT, CA).

One of my BIG pet peeves

I got a kick out of this story. This is one of my pet peeves in life - if you can't use decimal points, you deserve what's coming to you, and it's not the reader's fault that you are dumb at math.

Tiny Typo, big effect on ballot

I've always wanted to go into stores that has an ad outside for ".99c cheeseburgers", flip them a penny, and then say "keep the change!"

(by the way, where the hell is the cent symbol on the keyboard?)

Two Obituaries

Anyone who watched the Cowboys game on Monday realized that two people effectively passed away. Bill Parcells and Drew Bledsoe. It looks pretty clear with the mess in Dallas that neither will be back next season. As a NE fan both have a place in my heart (even though Parcells sold out in SB 26 and defected to the Jets).

Bledsoe, Parcells and Kraft formed the trilogy that is the reason why we still have the New England Patriots, and not the Saint Louis Patriots. Watching Bledsoe stumble around and make horrible decisions, it is easy to forget how much hype this guy had when he entered the league. Lets take a quick stroll down memory lane, when times were simpler, and everyone was much better off....

As a 22 year old in 1994 he threw for over 4500 yards (including the record setting 45 of 70 day). He must have had great receivers right? He had one, Ben Coates. His other starting wideouts were households names Vincent Brisby and Michael Timpson. Surely there was a great running back that opened things up right? Nope - the team averaged 3.0 yards per carry rushing and was lead by a VERY washed up Marion Butts. Butts (and his 2.9 ypc average) was so bad that in the playoff game (I'm sure Eric remembers this well) Parcells started a guy who had ZERO carries in the NFL (Corey Croom). This from a coach who loves veterans, and detests rookie mistakes, so think about that for a second.

That season NE won 7 in a row to end the season basically passing every single down. I think they averaged over 40 attempts a game that year. You felt like you were watching something special. The feeling was that if Bledsoe could cut back on some of the negative plays (common for a young QB), and with more experience he could be great. Well, it never really happened. He was solid, posting very good seasons in 96 and 97, but he never could escape the jaw-dropping WTF-was-that mistake. What is amazing is the lack of feel, the lack of football instincts he displays. This is from the son of a football coach. Strange.

Towards the end in Foxboro, it was reported that he became the true "9 to 5" guy. Doing exactly the minimum required, but not putting in extra time. Its hard to figure out if that is just NE media negativity or truth. He doesn't get nearly enough credit for what he did accomplish, even if it fell short of what people were hoping. Case in point, without him in 2001 the Pats never win the SB. After Brady got hurt in that AFC Championship game (at Pitt), Bledsoe delivered the only offensive touchdown of the game for the Pats.

Here is to Bledsoe and Parcells seemingly riding of into the sunset together. Yet another reminder of how we are all getting old!

Oh Shit

Oh Crap!!! I mean holy shit!!!! People that received my invitation, please do not send back yet. Apparently the return cards has the new address on them and Carol doesn't move in until November 11th. So please don't send them back until then.

O HAPPY DAY

Yes, this is me in my office today upon learning the good news that Maurice Carthon, the Browns' offensive co-ordinator, has been fired.

This firing has been called for on this site for some time now. Thank GOD we did it now, instead of at the end of the year, where we would spend the first half of 2007 adjusting to the new co-ordinator.

Maurice's playbook has been found in the streets of Cleveland; below is a picture of some of the plays that have been used this year. Sadly, the fullback option pass on 3rd and 1 is not included.

NFL Picks Week 7: The Money Game

The theme for this week's picks is the old standby game on The Price Is Right, "The Money Game".

It's a game for a car or truck - what the contestant has to do is to pick the first 2 and the last 2 numbers of the price of the car out of a pool of 9 two-digit numbers.

If he/she picks incorrectly four times, the game ends, but they win money in the amount of the total of the numbers of the wrong picks. (In the picture above, she already has $31 in the bank with the incorrect 16 and 15 picks.

The fun about this game is seeing if the producers play their tricks on Bob and the contestants when placing the correct numbers on the game board. Two common tricks:

"The Old Front-and-Back Trick" - this is when the last two digits are right next to the first two. In the case above, the last two digits turned out to be 30 - right next to the first two (as seen by the drawing of the front end of the truck where the 13 used to be). Pretty sneaky, sis!

"The Old El Cheapo" - the producers have a low number for the last two digits as well - because they are cheap and the contestants (after getting the first two numbers) wouldn't think about going after another low two-digit number, would they? Ah, those tricky producers! But Bob knows their evil plan!

How does this relate to week 7? Well, at this point, teams better have found the first two digits in the car's price by now. This means they know their strengths and weaknesses and and fine-tuning their team to get ready for the stretch run of finding the last two digits. They should only have 1 (or less) missed attempt. Others - well - are in trouble if they can't get the first two digits of the 2005 Ford Taurus. Some teams may still be wondering if they have a QB issue, or whether their offensive coordinator has an IQ above that of Quaker Apple Cinnamon Instant Oatmeal (see Carthon, Maurice). Look Mo, the Camry does not cost $45,000, so don't pick the 45 from the game board!

The games this week:

SD 24, KC 10. I don't see how KC is going to score many points against a defense very much like Pittsburgh's.

Phi 23, TB 13. Those who think TB will win this game are smoking something. Philly needs this - a classic bounceback game where Phi will be focused and come out strong.

Jax 20, Hou 10. Again, like last week, how does Houston score over 13 points here?

Mia 27, GB 20. Has shootout written all over it. Even Joey should be able to pass vs. the GB defense.

Buf 19, NE 16. Don't ask me why. The last stand for the Bills. Just a gut feeling here.

Cin 27, Car 17. The BRowns-Panthers game has left a sour taste in my mouth about the Panthers. They just aren't that good, I believe. Cinci is pissed, and has had a week to read all the stories about the so-called Super Bwol favorites finally coming together and how they will demolish Cinci. As always, go against the media.

Pit 20, Atl 13. Another team (the Falcons) that doesn't scare me too much. Of course, in 3 weeks, Vick and Dunn will run for a combined 439 yards....

NYJ 31, Det 20. Can't Ken O'Brien and Eric Hipple come out of retirement and QB this game?

Cle 20, Den 18. Two outcomes here: 1) Carthon finally comes to his senses and calls some goo dplays witht he talent he has and the BRowns score 2 TD's, or 2) Carthon out-thinks himself again and calls risky plays to "open" up the offnse that leads to turnovers. Either way, points will be scored here.

Az 24, Oak 17. I will be fascinated at watching this game unfold.

Ind 20, Was 17. Washington can run, and that is Indy' s weakness. This game will be close.

Sea 27, Min 13. The Vikings are a terrible road team.

NYG 23, Dal 20. I hate the Cowboys. There, I said it.

What, no Tennessee this week? I have to get off the bandwagon for a bit?

17 best bets. Standings:

Eric: 11-4-1 last week; overall 53-37-5

Derek: 10-6 last week: overall 45-50-1.

SD -5.5

SD/KC Under 41

Phi -5.5

Phi/TB Under 43

Jax/Hou Under 40

GB/Mia over 40.5

Buf +5.5

Cin -3

Pit -2.5

NYJ -3.5

NYJ/Det over 42

Den/Cle over 31.5

Az -3

Was +8

Ind/Was under 48.5

Sea -7

NYG +3

California is screwed up!!!!!

I know that you guys don't care about this shit, but this is getting outrageous. Two Border Patrol agents were sentenced to 11 and12 years in prison for an incident that happened down at the Texas Border. Quick recap- Two agents capture a drug smuggler who was caught with 700 pounds of weed. The smuggler runs and then gets in a scuffle with one of the agents and the other agent shoots him in the ass. The smuggler gets immunity to testify against the two agents and they are convicted and sentenced for shooting the smuggler in the ass. Now I'm still confident that they will get pardoned since Arnold, Pelosi, and Feinstein have all come out in support of the agents along with many other senators in the country. I don't know what the process to get a pardon, but hopefully these two agents will get off. If you haven't been to a Border town to see how crazy it is with the limited number of Agents compared to the number illegals and smugglers wanting to do harm to these guys, it will be shocking. Driving through Yuma, AZ on the way to Carol's place is like going through the wild west. You can see these agents chase illegals in the desert!!! Absolutely amazing.

Here are some other amazing props that are coming out in CA in November. Some are very interesting:

Prop 86- New $2.60 tax on cigarettes. Opposing view is that this will crush the smokers and then they will quit which will drive down tax revenue on cigarettes which will hamper Health Care and Schools. I tend to agree since if this does happen and tax revenue will decrease and they will find another way to pick up the gap in another type of tax.

Prop 87- Gas Tax- This is a big one. Gore, Clinton, and company are coming out strong for this measure. They state that the heavy tax on oil companies profits won't be passed down to the consumer and it will drive the search for alternative energy. This is one of those props that have great intentions but when put to use all we will see is the gas companies pass this onto the consumer and nothing will be done on alternative energy sources. I don't know.

4 hour wedding

Bad morning so far. Terrible hangover despite only having a couple of beers, Ben stopped recording Laguna Beach for some fucking reason, and someone stole my WSJ again. Fuck these white color crimes. Then I'm sitting here thinking that I got nothing to do today except for some small errands, play Madden, and watch college football and then it hits me that I have a wedding to go to today. One of the ladies in my clerical staff's daughters is getting married today. And to top it off she never told anyone who she was inviting so everyone else in the office declined the invite because they didn't know who else was going, so now I'm stuck going to this thing by myself. Then I look at the invitation and see that the wedding starts at 2:00pm but then the reception doesn't start until 6:00pm. What the fuck is that????? She is Filipino and apparently they have 4 hour weddings? Is it rude to show up two hours late to the wedding? Or show up at the beginning to make sure she sees you and then leave to go watch the games and come back for the reception?

This is going to suck. I don't know anyone at the wedding, it will be an 8 hour ordeal, and Oh I forgot to tell you, I have to lay this person off by the end of the year. Right around the holidays!!!!! Thanks executive team for making a cut in my clerical staff right around the holidays!!!! Assholes.

Now onto the picks.
Louisville -17.5
NC State +1.5
ND Over 49.5
ND -13
ASU -23.5
K State Under 44.5
Oklahoma -14
Pitt -6- I was suckered into this pick by ESPN. I hate that. Note to everyone out there, never watch ESPN before you wager. They tout games that they are going to show and try to talk up the bad teams. Why am I taking Pitt? Because they showed a 10 minute clip of their defense. I should know better.
PSU -18.5- This is another stupid pick. I just wanted something to wager on during this morning's games. PSU offense is like the Denver Broncos. I know...I have a problem.


Pro games: Oh boy, just looked and the only home team I'm taking is the Jets. Not good at all.
Chargers -5.5
Jets -3.5
Jax -9.5
Skins +9
AZ -3
GB +5
Browns under 31.5

Random thoughts from the Piedmont

Good conversation going on down below in the comments of the political post.

1) What is up with Ms. Pac-Man? Why do all the current Ms Pac Man video game (the actual arcade games) have Ms Pac Man at super speed starting from level 1? Is it because they think the current youth can't handle or won't be interested in the slow speed of level 1 from our days?

1a) I think I have a blister from playing 3 straight games at the airport here. I'm sure some mothers standing outside thought I was a child molester or something - a single male in his 30s in a video arcade.

2) So -which video games would you like to see make a comeback and be installed in various airport arcades? My list:
a) Donkey Kong
b) Tapper - I LOVED this game, and couldn't wait for our trips to Dewey Beach in the summer to play this game at one of the arcades for hours.
c) Cyclone - "You there- Ride The FERRIS WHEEL!"
d) Frogger - I realize I am comparing myself to George Costanze
e) Q*Bert. I never was interested much in this growing up, but now miss it a lot.

3) Why does the NFL cede this weekend to the MLB? They don't play a Sunday Night game this week out of politeness to MLB and the World Series , but c'mon - who would you watch? Game 2 between the Tigers and Cardinals, or The Giants/Cowboys? I thought so.

NFL should just give MLB the old middle finger and say "I DARE you to get better ratings this weekend."

4) Taught a training course down here in Greensboro. I am amazed at how the young "kids" (God, I sound like Henny Youngman) are adddicted to the internet. During our class, where computers were needed, the internal network went out Monday afternoon.

For Tuesday morning, a student went out and bought a router for the students to use. OUr class did not require internet access.

Amazing what you would do with an addiction like that. She also planned to take the router back to Best Buy for a refund once the network came up.

5) Saw a presidential motorcade for teh 2nd time in my life down here. I was heading the opposite way on I-40 at 5:30 when I noticed there was NO traffic coming in the other direction. Two minutes later,I saw several all-black SUVs followed by a limo. Traffic did nor resume again for another 10 minutes.

Is that the best way to campaign? By shutting down an interstate in a semi-major city during rush hour?

Rodney King part 2

Well its all over the news now. Ben is in on the right. There was a crazy lady taping the entire thing while Ben and his partner were apprehending the illegal. Pretty slanted story. Actually that is an understatement. They make it sound like the grand jury is investigating them, when actually it is the other way around. The lady makes no sense whatsoever. She thought it was a gang fight? What? Ben doesn't look anything like a gang member. And you wonder why everyone makes so much fun of the local news.


http://www.nbc4.tv/news/10116274/detail.html

Random Notes

I don't mean to post over the great debate between Eric and Laura on VA politics, but just wanted to get a couple of things down as I sit here proctoring another exam for my employees.

1. Decided to let my XM Radio lapse since the baseball season was over. I was thinking that I could handle going back to regular FM/AM radio. Boy what a fucking mistake. Say what you want about XM, it is still 100 times better than the crap they put out there on the free airwaves. For example I listened to Ryan Seacrest talk to Fergie on her new album. You would of thought that he was talking to Bob Dylan on how creative and meaningful her lyrics were. London Bridge??? She pulled from her childhood of being on Crystal Meth to write that song. No joke. Never again.

2. Hired a guy from South Africa this week. Don't know why, since the other South African that I know is a prick. Yes Neil, I'm looking in your direction. The crazy thing is, he took the same path to the states as Neil did. Lived in Capetown, moved to Atlanta to become a lawyer, shacked up with some smart chick and moved out here while she is getting her PHD. I'll see if he wants to play Madden this year with us.

3. Found another caterer, thank god. Despite both parents being really excited about cooking everything on their own, with my mom promising three turkeys, two pork loins, a ham, and her famous cherry cupcakes, I feel like this was going to be a disaster. Not because the food would be bad, but that the families would be more concerned about preparing the food than the wedding. The new caterer is about half the price as the other one who was supposed to be a good friend of Carol's mom. I hope everyone likes BBQ!!!!!! Its all filler food anyway, right? Hmmm. Lets see if I can name all the food from every wedding I've been to.
1. Eric- No clue. Just remember that there was only beer and wine at the reception. And it was in this cool log cabin.
2. Jay- All I remember was that there was a flower on the dinner plate. And that we sang Patience as a group. And Joe and Blondie took very disturbing pictures up in their room.
3. Lee- No idea. Only remember Wiz doing his thing and Stiffy and his wife taking pictures of their ass and putting it in the guest book. Many other bad things happened here like getting stuck with a tab, taking Lee's keys by accident, and Lee losing his marriage license.
4. Lav/Derr- Nope. Can't remember. Remember more about going out afterwards than during.
5. Ty- see above. But I do remember having crabs later that night.
6. Currier- see number 4. That was a great location.
7. Stiffy- No idea except that he had cupcakes as his wedding cake
8. Lance- No idea about anything on this wedding.
9. Cox- Haven't a clue. I don't even remember going out afterwards.
10. Bruce- The only thing I remember about this one is that Keith and I ate with Mrs. Monkton and her gay son.
11. Gene- Italian buffet. Great filler food for drinking. And this is also when my muscle made out with Amy. Ohhhh that still pisses me off.
12. Larsen- I just remember a lot of drugs afterwards and I didn't eat.
13. Banz- Great cookout during the afternoon. This is what I'm striving for. Easy, simple, and it was all about hanging out and drinking.
14. Amanda- don't remember the food, but they had a keg in each corner of the room. Self service. Excellent idea.
15. Amanda 2- the worst steak I have ever had. Live band sucked.
16. Jon- Great food. But the only reason why I remember this is that it was just a month ago. Ask me again in 5 years. But still I might remember since the food was sooooo good. Scallops and meat. Hmmmm.
17. Kerry- Great location, but I can't remember what we had for dinner. This is where I found out I was alergic to lime.
18- Others- been to a couple of work weddings and I nothing really stands out.

So maybe its just me, but really nobody remembers the food. They do on the other hand remember the alcohol, location, and the after party, which is where Carol and I are spending most of the money.

Question of the Day

Don't want to post over Eric's amazing Senate post, but would any of you do this, if your team had a shot to win?

A new service called TicketReserve.com allows fans the opportunity to buy and sell rights to championship college and pro football games, in the hopes that their favorite teams actually make it to the Super Bowl or Fiesta Bowl or what have you. For example, upper deck tickets to the NFC championship game at Giants Stadium can be had for as little as $47, but that's contingent on the G-Men actually hosting the game, instead of the favored Bears. If that scenario works out, you stand to hold tickets worth hundreds of dollars more apiece than you paid. If not, the seller keeps your cash without having to deliver anything. Not unlike what Kansas City Royals ownership does to its fan base every year.

Election preview: 2006 US Senate - The Race to 51

Here we go in with the first of our posts regarding the upcoming elections. We start with the easiest races to handicap and preview, the US Senate races. It's easy in the sense that there aren't many competitive races (compared to the House) and the high profile of the races means that there is a lot of polling and information available (unlike the Governor's races).

The current breakdown is 55 R, 44, D and 1 I in the Senate.
Of those, 40 R and 27 D is not up for election this year.
In order to win the Senate, the Democrats need to win 25 of the races this year to get the 51 seats and control.

We are going to rate them in order of a Democratic victory.

Democrat Locks:
28. MA: Kennedy (D) vs Chase
29. NY: Clinton (D) vs Spenser
30. WI: Kohl (D) vs Lorge
31. CA: Feinstein (D) vs Mountjoy
32. DE: Carper (D) vs Ting
33. NM: Bingaman (D) vs McCulloch
34. HI: Akaka (D) vs Thielen
35. ND: Conrad (D) vs Gortberg. How North Dakota, a state that votes 60% Republican in national elections, has 2 Democratic senators is a political mystery.
36. FL: Nelson (D) vs Harris. Yes, this is Katherine Harris of the 2000 Presidential Election fame.

Independent Locks:
37. VT: Sanders (I) vs Tarrant. This is Bernie Sanders, the self-delcared Socialist, who looks like will make a move from the House to the Senate.

Likely Independent:
38. CT: Lieberman (I) vs LaMont (D) vs Schlesinger (R). It is more and more likely that Joe will hold on. Lamont has faded badly over the past two months since his win in the democratic primary. If he win, we assume he will caucus with the Democrats.

Likely Democratic (not a lock, but close):
39. WV: Byrd (D) vs. Raese . The oldest man in the Senate will survive.
40. NE: Nelson(D) vs. Ricketts.

Leaning Democratic, in order of a Democratic win:
41. MN: Klouchbar (D) vs Kennedy (R). Wow. What an opportunity for the R's that has been blown. The incumbent, Mark Dayton (D) , is widely regarded as the worst senator in the nation. He retired; the R's put up a decent candidate ( a multi-term Rep) - and the weak Demo candidate is up 10-15 points in all polls. Wow.
42. MI: Stabenow (D) vs. Bouchard. It's not over yet given the sad state of Michigan, but Debbie may hang on.
43. WA: Cantwell (D) vs McGavick. A solid 8-10 point lead for the incumbent. It's not over, but...
44. MD: Cardin (D) vs. Steele . I'm not ready to rule Steele out yet, given the race factor and the boringness of Cardin as a candidate.

Toss-ups, in order of a Democratic win:
45. PA: Casey (D) vs Santorum. Santorum has come back from the dead before, but I think he's too far behind now to win. An incumbent still polling 39-43% at ths stage is in big trouble - even if his opponent is at 43-48%. The undecideds are not all going to vote for teh incumbent, are they? Espeically if he is as polarizing as Mr. Dog Sex, Rick Santorum.

46. RI: Whitehouse (D) vs Chafee. Chafee is widely considered as THE most liberal Republican; he survived a serious primary challenge this year from the conservative wing, but survived. The Chafee name means a lot in Rhode Island; will that trump the anti-Bush vote?

47. MT: Tester (D) vs Burns. Another R incumbent in trouble. Burns is old, has connections to Abramoff (the lobbyist), and is prone to gaffes. Tester is the perfect WEstern Democratic candidate - a hunter and rancher that talks plainly and seems very Perot-ish. He is the complete opposite of Pelosi and Ed Kennedy, which helps him immensely.

48. NJ: Menendez (D) vs Kean. The only D incumbent in trouble, running neck and neck with the son of a popular governor (and 9/11 co-chair), Tom Kean. THere are corruption charges swirling around the incumbent Menendez, but when has that stopped New Jersey before?

49. OH: Brown (D) vs DeWine. This is disappointing. DeWine is a good guy, has made no ethical mistakes or gaffes, and yet is being bogged down by 1) the Ohio Rep party (more later) and 2) the current anti-Bush environment. I know the polls say Brown (a NE Ohio liberal) is up 3-5, but I just can't see DeWine losing.

50. MO: McAskill(D) vs Talent. Another R incumbnent who has done nothing wrong who may also get swept in a possible wave. Ohio and Missouri are two racfes to watch - if the Republican incumbents go down and go down hard, then we have a tsunami on our hands. If one survives, then it's a moderate wave. If both survive, then the Democratic "storm" is overblown.

51. TN: Ford(D) vs Corker. A fascinating race. Will Tennessee elect a black Democratic Memphis congressman - who, incidentally, films his commercials in a church! - over a traditional Rep candidate who was beaten down in a tough primary. The key is the rednecks in Eastern Tennessee - will those people actually pull the lever for a black man who is based 400 miles away in Memphis and really has nothing in common geography-wise. I know that sounds harsh (the racial part), but that's what D's have to overcome to get a majority.

52. VA: Webb (D) vs Allen. After all the gaffes by Allen, he still seems to have a 3-5 point lead here. I think his stature is too much in the state and he will pull through by 5 points.

Leaning Republican:
53: AZ: Kyl (R) vs. Pederson. This race seems to be tightening to 5-9 points, but Kyl should come through in this red state.

Solid R:
54. ME: Snowe (R) vs Bright
55. NV: Ensign (R) vs Carter - the son of Jimmy Carter.
56. WY: Thomas (R) vs Groutage
57. UT: Hatch (R) vs Ashdown
58. TX: Hutchison (R) vs Radnofsky
59. MS: Lott (R) vs Fleming
60: IN: Lugar (R) unopposed

So - the Democrats have to win 7 of the 8 "toss up" races in order to take the Senate. This seems dauting, but history has shown us that if there is a moderate wave, the tossup races all will fall one way. It looks like control of the Senate will be determined in the back hills of Missouri or Tennessee - if the rural voters will turn their back on the Republican party and vote in an urban Democratic candidate (a black man in TN or a white woman in MO). We will see.

Positive Ramblings

Well to change the subject from Eric being a prick to discussing how much enjoyment I'm getting out of tonight's ref in the AZ Chi game. I have Ben crying after every penalty by saying "you dig". Holding Offense 10 yard penalty repeat first down...You dig. Where did they get this guy? I've never seen him before.

Hey check out the house that the wedding will be at. I'm starting to get a little excited. We fired the caterer because they were outrageous and now we will be making our own food. Hmmmm...Should be very interesting. This might be the first pot luck reception in the US.

Anyone watching baseball? What is up with the radar gun. It is clearly 5-6 mph higher than normal. It had Zito in the low 90s and he hasn't seen 88 since 2004. Its ridiculous.

Wiping one's ass: Ben and I had a very disturbing discussion the other day. With his hands all jacked up I asked him
how the hell he is wiping his ass. Well the conversation took a weird turn and I come to find out that he used to stand up while he wiped his ass. Standing up??? He said that is how he was taught growing up and just changed a couple of years ago and was pissed that his parents told him to stand up before wiping since it is 10 times better sitting down. Graphic details followed.


A's recap: Wow, I really didn't see the Macha firing happening. After last year of firing and then hiring, I thought that he was here to stay, but I'm very happy that he is gone. Anyway, what can I say about the ALCS. The walk off homer eally didn't hurt me as much as other plays in the past, since we were down 0-3. And this clip from Athletics Nation pretty much sums it up for me as well.

For me, the difference this year is the lack of a villain. In the past, we have been knocked out of the playoffs by the slim margin of one final game, which was lost to the evil teams of New York, Boston, and the worst opponent of all--ourselves. This year, it's impossible to point to one play, to one player, and even to one game as the deciding factor in our demise. We flat got beat by Detroit, a wonderful success story in itself, and I really do wish them the best. The Tigers are good for baseball, and it's nice to see some important games being played in a city not named New York. They don't have an obnoxious catch-phrase attached to them (see: The Idiots Who Cowboy Up, or The Piranhas, The Best Lineup Ever, or my favorite, The Perfect Small Ball Squad), they don't have a large payroll; they don't have annoying announcers, they don't really have a superstar, and more than likely, they're going to win the whole thing.