NFL Week 1: Roy Rogers

Hello from San Diego! It's time for the 2019 version of the world famous themed NFL picks. Being at home during the day most of the time (when I'm not with my degenerates playing $5 UTH at 10 am on Tuesday mornings), I'm on the internet a lot - and sometimes, yes, I fall for the clickbait.

"50 best resort hotels in your area".....
"The 25 small towns that are going bankrupt"
and yes, "20 restaurant chains that are out of business"

Layup visited me a few weeks ago and we saw that list about the chains and it started a good conversation. We were sure I could come up with 17 defunct restaurants - so this year we are going to explore 17 restaurants from my youth that I loved and have a special place in my heart. They may be out of business, they may be surviving by a thread -- but I don't think I'll be able to go to these anymore. Some are well known, some will be obscure - but they are part of my memories.

(if you think you've seen this on the blog before, well, you are right -we did a post about old restaurants back in 2011 here.....this year we will expand on that theme a whole lot.....)

And we will try to link each one to the upcoming Browns game as well. I'm cautiously optimistic for this season. 9-7 is my prediction; I can't go higher because this is Freddie's first year; I don't know how the chemistry will be later this season with OBJ, and there are questions - serious ones - on our offensive line. And we have a rookie punter and kicker.....don't laugh, those will cost us 1-2 games.

Anyway, let's get started! This week we look back at....Roy Rogers!

Roy Rogers, for those of you not from the mid-Atlantic, was a fast food chain specializing in burgers, roast beef, and chicken. To me, it seemed to be a step up from the national chains of McDonalds, Burger King and the like. The star menu item was the "Double R Burger" - a 1/4 burger with ham on it - a break from the regular bacon cheeseburgers you can find anywhere! And I have to say, their fried chicken was good....rivaling KFC's fried chicken. I got the two piece meal many times, with a biscuit and all the margarine you can eat with it.

Roy Rogers seemed to be a special treat for our family growing up. They didn't have one in Hunt Valley or within 10 miles of us. It wasn't a regular stop that we planned to go to; Layup and I seemed to go there on two occasions;

1. When Mom dragged us in the car to go on an all-day shopping trip at White Marsh or so. Sometimes, the Hunt Valley Mall just didn't have the selection and so we ( as kids that were, say, 12 and 9 years old) got put in the car for a 45 minute drive to the swanky mall on the east side of town. Our reward was the Double R Burger.

2. There were Roy's all over the place near the shore, especially in Delaware; I think we always stopped for lunch at a Roy's in Dover as we headed to the Delaware beach for our many weekend vacation getaways.

But the best part of Roy Rogers was....the Fixin's Bar!!! This was no ordinary condiment station, like what Wendy's or Arby's has. It contained 3-4 types of BBQ sauce, plenty of other sauces - and fresh produce! There were fresh sliced tomatoes, onions, pickles and crisp lettuce all waiting for you to put on your burger. I went to town on that!!! I ordered the Double R and slather it with mustard, BBQ, onions, lettuce and one pickle. My parents always had that look of disgust when seeing what concoction I made...….

Kind of like the face I make now when we go to the frozen yogurt place and Martin fills his cup with 6 types of sour Jolly Rancher flavors.

Anyway, the fixin's bar is what made Roy's stand out from the rest. I'm not really sure what happened to Roy's in the 90's - I think it was bought out by Hardee's or something - but it dwindled away. They are planning a comeback; I have read they are opening new locations in New Jersey/Pennsylvania recently.

There was a Roy's in Cincinnati on route 32 near Eastgate - it may have been open as late as 2000, 2001, and I went there once or twice. Now it's been shuttered for years - and nothing has filled its place. The old building is still there, taunting me of an abandoned Fixin's bar inside.

Here is a commercial for Roy's from 1986 to get your taste buds going:

About the Browns: well, I finally feel we have a Fixin's Bar for this team. Our offense usually had 1 weapon - maybe - at our QB's disposal. For the past 10 years or so, what options did our QB have to make plays? Peyton Hills....Josh Gordon for a year.....last year it was just Landry at the beginning. Now, we have options. We have OBJ, Landry, Chubb, Njoku......we have a real fixin's bar for Mayfield. No more stale ketchup in Corey Coleman or moldy tomatoes with Isaiah Crowell.....

On to the games....I have to preview these early and make the picks because I will be without internet on a boat until Sunday afternoon. The horror! I'm sure there will be lots of injuries and changes on Thursday and Friday that will render these picks moot and useless.

Chi 23, GB 17. GB wants to change their O to be more run-based and less spontaneous with LaFleur making the calls - I think that plays right into the Bears' hands.

Bal 22, Mia 10. Such a trap here. What is Miami doing - who will Fitzpatrick pass the ball to? It seems easy, but Baltimore is one-dimensional and that's easy to plan against.

Min 30, Atl 23. I don't think Atlanta has upgraded their secondary, so Min should move the ball; Atl's new coordinator will learn from the mistakes of last year and stay in this game.

NYJ 24, Buf 16. How is Buffalo going to score? We trusting Allen to be accurate week 1? But do the Jets have a pass rush? Darnold comfortable with short passes, avoiding Buffalo's good secondary.

Phi 26, Was 17. I think Phi's new run weapons will be stopped by Washington, who has a great run D; question is how do the Redskins score. Gruden will keep this low scoring.

LAR 30, Car 17. I think the Panthers are a mess. One-D on offense with McCaffrey; Moore is not a weapon yet and what is the injury status on Cam? Losing Davis on D hurts too.

KC 31, Jax 20. Another trap game that looks too easy. Jax will stop run, have pass rush -can it rattle Mahomes? What are Foles and Fournette going to look like vs. the worst run D?

SF 30, TB 24. SF passing attack was decent at the end of last year, questions on Tampa's DL and secondary. Jimmy G did not look good in preseason. SF defense will gamble and force mistakes.

LAC 31, Ind 23. What a mystery. What is the Chargers' secondary going to look like without James? Can Brissett take advantage? What will Gordon's absence do to the Chargers' o?

Sea 23, Cin 13. Cin will run the ball with Mixon- what else can they do? Sea wants to run - that's the strength of Cin's D - can Wilson take advantage of the weak Cincy secondary without weapons?

Az 30, Det 27. Worried about Az's pass rush here - if Stafford has time, will score a lot. But Det's D may not have improved yet; perfect first opponent for Kingsbury and Murray.

Dal 31, NYG 27.  The Giants can't just run the ball here. They have to pass and take advantage of the weak Dal secondary. I think they can do enough to keep it close.

NE 31, Pit 24. NE's D is awesome, but Pit always finds a way with their passing game to get points. Pit secondary is weak, so we may see more of Brady and the passing game than Bill wants.

NO 37, Hou 20. I feel like this is a trap also. Where is Houston's mind with all the moves? I don't know if Hou can get pressure on Brees. NO has to be motivated here.

Den 19, Oak 16. This game will be straight from the 70s - run run run. Lindsey will get plenty of carries as Flacco is eased in; Oak can't handle the pass rush from Den.

Best bets: 16 of them.
Chi -3
Chi/GB under 46.5
Bal -6.5
NYJ -3
Min -4
LAR -3
KC -3.5
Ind/LAC over 44.5
Cin/Sea under 44
Az +2.5
Det/Az over 47
NYG/Dal over 45.5
SF pk
NO -7
Den pk
Den/Oak under 43

Supercontest picks:
Still to come. Will be updated Tuesday evening.

Time for the 2019 NFL season!

Hi everybody! It's almost here - the 2019 NFL regular season! I'm trying to have a muted optimism over the '19 Browns. We won 7.5 games last year - and improved our skill positions on offense and really upgraded our D line. That should translate to 10, 11 wins, right? Not so fast. So many things can go wrong with this team - are we sure the rookie coach was the right choice? Will Odell be a diva? For that matter, is Baker a diva? Who knows.

My prediction: 9-7 and a wild card berth.

Anyway, it's time to get ready for the weekly posts on this blog and the world-famous themed picks. Of course I am doing the SuperContest again this year - was #32 to sign up back in March - and I'm looking forward to get back into the groove I was in during 2017. Not too much pressure there, right?

To reset, here are my career records for the picks on the blog:

Best bets in 2018: 102-110-8  (48.1%)
Career best bets on this blog: 1574-1458-90  (51.9%)

Supercontest in 2018: 42-40-3 (51.2%)
Career Supercontest: 351-309-20  (53.2%)

Need to do better this year!

To get everyone in the mood for NFL football, it's time to watch old clips of the pregame/introduction to games from the 70s and 80s. Let's focus on NBC in the 80s. It's amazing how bad/poor their production was compared to CBS. Everyone knows the NFL today theme - does anyone remember the pregame program from NBC?

Let's compare: Here's CBS's NFL today from 1981; Brent's voice at the beginning still gives me chills and the theme appears at 1:10.

Now we have NFL '81 on NBC with Bryant Gumbel.....stranded by himself with Pete Axhelm coming later. Now it's not their fault they have to preview the Patriots/Colts game......

(and people wonder why the Colts left Baltimore)

NBC did get more dramatic later in the 80s - by adding a montage of "great games, great moments, on NBC". The music here is much better- yes, chill inducing. Two examples:

1. Opening from September 1987

2. Opening from 1988

I loved those montages. They need to bring them back.

Finally, yes, we will have a theme for our picks this year! There was a post on this blog way back when that generated a lot of interest - we are going to expand it this year into 17 weeks. Hint: you will be hungry!

Picks should be posted on Tuesday, since I will be away from the internet for 5 whole days starting on Tuesday - this is thanks to Layup and his wife who couldn't schedule a birthday outing around the NFL season. Hey - if the PGA tour can revamp their schedule around the NFL, can't you schedule a boat trip without missing week 1??

PS  - stay tuned for Leland dressing up in a wonderful outfit on the trip!

Vegas Diary 2019, Part 3

Saturday, March 16

It's the annual free day - Saturday - for the trip. Nothing on the agenda except for dinner that night - except getting the losing parlay in ! Of course, we weren't close to a winner again or even a free dinner for someone. It was a lackluster trip for parlay suspense across the board.

At least we went 4-3 on this

However, sometimes during the free day, ad hoc activities get planned! At about 8:30 am, a call went out for breakfast at the buffet and then a mandatory meeting afterward at the craps table. I'm not sure what happened - but all 7 of us didn't show up at the same time. I can't believe the craps tables were packed at 9:45 am on a Saturday....but maybe I was wrong.

Had my first good roll of the trip - where I started rolling a string of 8's - and only a few people were there to take advantage. After that, nothing....no one seemed to be able to roll and the profits from all my 8's were gone in a flash. No one could roll - frustrating.

Next up, of course, would be UTH. It seems Layup and I always end up on a Saturday late morning/early afternoon at the UTH table near the atrium (with all the natural light) with Gary the dealer. Layup had gotten into the habit of trusting Gary with his sports picks, so there was always conversation about the games coming up (or going on). And boy oh boy, that conversation dragged. The UTH game is hand dealt at the Mirage - and Gary would hold the cards, deal one to the players, and then stop and talk about Kentucky basketball or ask for a score update. I'm sitting there waiting for the second card and Gary is going off about his 3 team parlay last night that missed by the hook or something. After 30 minutes, it got aggravating. After an hour or so - it affected me mentally.

The good thing? The relief dealer came on and gave me quad 5's (which I did not lose, by the way) which floated me through the afternoon.

Ah! One memory that is coming back was the appearance of the "girlfriend" from Wednesday. I think this girlfriend was a 50-something overweight woman (probably from the Midwest) that loved UTH as much as the rest of us. She whistled to herself, sang, and tried to talk to us - but of course, no one wanted to have anything to do with her. So whenever a group of us sat down for UTH session, she usually was there and an icy wind came over the table.

Layup and I got up from Gary eventually- and headed to the salon for round 2 of baccarat. The session was going choppy until an Asian man sat down at the table next to me. Layup and I were taking turns driving with limited success, so we started to listen to this guy.

"Don't play this hand.."
"No, not banker here"
"Now we go heavy on player"

It was fun to let him take the lead and he did fairly well for us! Of course, I can't help myself and I can't sit out multiple hands - so I started betting banker on each hand and lost any profits that the Asian helped me get.

Wiz and others came in during the session and, of course, Wiz headed to the BJ table - Layup joined him and I eventually got there. It wasn't notable - I lost half my bankroll, as usual....I hate salon blackjack. It was extremely frustrating for Wiz as I have in my notes that he had no double opportunities for 4 shoes in a row. Just a complete grind.

After a rest, it was dinner at Craftsteak at the MGM. We always say we are going to gamble at the MGM before dinner, but we never do. Maybe next time we build in an hour for gambling before any MGM dinner. The dinner itself was great - even though I ate about 10% of my dish.... Don and Mike ordered a very expensive bottle of wine that 5 of the 7 drank - so when the bill came, how do we split it up? While the Purdue engineers were arguing for 5-10 minutes with the Clemson finance analyst on how to split it up, the industrial engineer in me quickly figured out the solution- a proud moment in my Vegas dinner history.

The taxi ride back was - let's just say, awful. We had a driver that wouldn't shut up. Someone brought up strip clubs and food - and we were given a 15 minute lecture/tour of each strip club and the quality of their steak. I have the text messages here where we didn't think it was too bad to start, but everyone agreed with me at the end. Just a painful ride back.

Micah had to leave before dinner, so we had 7 of us looking to gamble back at the Mirage. There was an open $25 blackjack table for 6 of us - so we all sat down (except for Wiz, who disappeared into the salon) for a full table session. It didn't start very well - I wasn't getting cards and all my doubles failed. Layup took his customary position at 3rd base - and about an hour in, had a 14 vs a 3.

"Hit me". He was distracted for some reason - drinks? - and this decision shocked the table

The dealer stopped, and asked him again. Layup said yes - give me a card.

Well, of course you know what happened. A 10 appeared, busting Layup and it would have been the bust card for the dealer.....who then drew to a 19.

To his credit, Layup refunded the bets of everyone at the table based on his bad decision. He got up immediately and joined Wiz in the salon. I'm sure this is just one more anecdote on why he never plays blackjack on the main table. The mood for the rest of us didn't improve, and we split up as some went to bed...and some went to UTH, including me. I think our girlfriend was there and, of course, it was a losing session for me. At about 11 pm, I called it a night.

Sunday, March 17

Most of the group - including Layup - left early (like 6, 7 am) so we all said our goodbyes the night before. I had a later flight - like 11 - and thought I could do some early morning gambling, but I had no energy for it. My diary shows zero gambling activity for me that morning - is that really right? The last message I have is that our whistling girlfriend

The flight back was long, and I wasn't feeling all that well. I still am getting used to understanding how taxing travel is for me during chemo sessions. But it was all worth it for 5 days in Vegas.

Of course, I am looking forward to Vegas 2020 and I fully expect to make it out there. I know there has been some talk about moving locations from the Mirage next year.....and I'm open to that!

Vegas Diary 2019 - Part 2

Thursday, March 14

So I may not have fully described how bad the weather was in Vegas this week. Looking through the text messages, it's clear that on Wednesday that the temperature never broke 60 --- and the winds were consistently at 20 mph. There was no one on the course with us on Wednesday - which helped the pace of play, but the weather wore us all down on the back nine.

And the weather was the main reason why I backed out of the round on Thursday. I was tired after Wednesday - and wanted to save myself for Southern Highlands on Friday - and our tee time was like 8:00 on Thursday morning, when the temperature was projected to be about 40 degrees. The only issue was that Thursday's round was at Royal Links, a course I do love and would have wanted to play - and the breakfast burrito! Although this year, the reviews from the breakfast burrito seemed muted at best - was the recipe changed?

Parlay with 7 favorites? 

Guaranteed loser

Apparently, this was the best decision I made for the trip. At lunch, there was so much complaining from the group about the conditions- especially on the front nine - due to the cold and the wind. I don't know if anyone broke 80 at Royal Links.

Got the parlay in at the Mirage book that morning - no one picked any wacko teams - and then realized we picked 7 favorites. Oh yeah, this will work out fine.

I intended to have the morning be a spa day - I scheduled a massage and wanted to use the hot tub a lot. Got to my massage when the therapist asked about any medical conditions I had. I told her about my cancer - she asked about chemo. I said yes, I was undergoing chemo at the time.....and that was the wrong answer. She said policy is that they can't give massages to any active chemo patients - the massage could activate the chemo and make it more powerful. So - I was escorted back into the spa.

(I asked my oncologist about this later - and he said this is not a worry for normal massages. It could be an issue for deep tissue massage, but for normal massages, this is BS. So I'll take a doctor's note with me for Vegas 2020).

I spent about 90 minutes in the spa, falling asleep in the lawn chairs in between sessions in the hot tub rooting against Seton Hall. Nice to be in a 100 degree hot tub while the others are playing golf in 50 degree temps and 20 mph winds!

Hall of fame of worst UTH bad beats

Got out of the hot tub and went to the UTH table to watch basketball after that relaxing session. About 30 minutes in, I was dealt a pair of red 7's. All in for 4 times!

The flop came - 7 spades, 7 clubs, 9 spades. Flopped a quad! Yes, of course, I screamed with delight.

The river was the 10 and Jack of spades. No, there's no way...….

And of course the dealer had the 8 of spades. My flopped quads lost to a straight flush. Thank God it was only a $15 hand....that was a swing of about $900.

After that - I had to change tables and head to the other side of the casino with..... Gary, the infamous UTH dealer. He's starting to be my nemesis - I just can't beat him, and session 1 with Gary was no different as I suffered a serious loss.

Joined everyone at BLT for lunch after everyone came back from Royal Links, and then there was another afternoon UTH session where Wiz got a tray of drinks dumped on him. That meant it was a good time for a nap for me. After the nap, it was time for the first salon session of the trip - Baccarat! Layup and I went in there before dinner ---- and the luck did not change. There wasn't any sort of runs to get excited about.

I think I was incorrect in the last post and the Lavo dinner was tonight instead of Wednesday - which would make more sense given the golf schedules. There was one last UTH session after dinner - which was finally a profitable one for me - and then an early bed time. Southern Highland awaited in the morning!

Friday, March 15

Most of the day was covered with my favorite golf course and outing - Southern Highlands! After getting the morning parlay in - at least we took 2 underdogs today instead of 7 favorites - it was off to Southern Highlands for the annual trip - this time paid for by Layup! We had two full foursomes for the outing, as Layup's friend Jared joined us from Southern California for the rest of the trip.

Another 3-4 losing parlay

The weather was a little better - not as cold as Thursday or even Wednesday - but we did run into a frost delay. For the 8 of us, we set up some elaborate gambling games - each person in the group had a partner in the other group for a best ball competition --- the gimmick here is that you had no idea what your partner scored on a hole, so you just hoped your partner bogied if you were making an X.

We tried to get some sort of pro-am competition going, with our scores combined with the golfer we picked in the fantasy one-and-done golf league....that didn't work out so well as the computations got to be a little massive. Maybe it was my chemo brain that caused a lot of confusion. Not sure if we will do this again.

Layup, Mike A, Jared and I were in the second group - and before we knew it, we fell behind the group ahead of us. It didn't help that on the first hole, I was the only one to actually complete the hole. Don't worry, my X's came later on the back nine.

Where is my partner aiming?

However, the whole experience was kind of ruined that day by our group caddy. I forget what his name was...but holy crap, was he bad. There was some misreads on the front nine on the greens - which is forgivable. However, both Layup and I were given bad yardages multiple times during the round....we are talking 10-15 yards off. Layup hit a few great shots that should have been right on the pin, but the yardage was off and he flew the green.

The caddy gooched me at least twice, saying great drive as the ball was clearly heading for a fairway bunker. This caddy seemed to not know the course at all and the position of the bunkers - even though he said he was a low single digit handicap and caddied here for a few years.  I stopped talking to him on about the 14th hole; Layup went radio silent shortly after. We came to the 17th - the long par 3 over water - and I think there was confusion on the yardage the caddy gave Layup. He may have given the yardage to the pin, where Layup wanted the yardage to cover the water; Layup hit a nice 4 iron that flew the green by a good 20 yards. Holy crap, I thought someone would be pushed in the lake.

But all in all, I loved the course (again) and played as decent as possible given my condition. And Wiz and I seemed to win a little bit of money from our partnership.

Dinner that night was at Carbone's at the Aria casino. Great restaurant, great food. I wished I could have enjoyed it more. The alcohol flowed freely - and I learned that the non-alcoholic drinks were made at a separate bar than the other drinks. So while everyone get quick refills on their cocktails, my Arnold Palmers sat at some lonely secondary bar and took 10 minutes to deliver to me. But- the food was excellent and the scenery - holy crap! We sat in the center of the dining room at a table of 8, and all around us were booths of 2 facing us. The booths, of course, were filled with young couple all dressed to the nines and not much was left to the imagination. It was hard to be discreet to point at all the various couples.

We walked around the casino for a while, threatening to gamble there that night - but never did. Lot of tables, lot of room - not sure why we didn't jump in. It was a Friday night, so the limits were a little high, but still...… The casino seemed great and spacious - and talk started about moving the trip to the Aria next year. Who knows? I have no idea how the rooms are - but it could be a good choice just for the casino alone.

We got a taxi back to the Mirage where there was a UTH session and, of course, a Face Up Pai Gow session. I think there was 3 of us at Pai Gow when some drunk idiot (not in our group) spilled his daiquiri all over the table. That was a sign for me to head up for the night. I think there was a side trip with Layup and Jared later that night...…..

Vegas Diary 2019 - Part 1

Hello everyone! Well, it's time to resurrect the F&J blog as football season is right around the corner. In order to prep for the football season - and the world famous themed picks that will continue this year - it's time to do some house cleaning and make sure all the previous loose ends are tied up.

That includes actually writing the Vegas diary from this year! I've been doing most of my writing on Caring Bridge giving updates on my condition, and therefore ignoring this blog.

(For those that may not have it, here is the Caring Bridge link: Eric's fight)

But it's time to have fun on the blog with the diary and the picks! This year's diary will be light, and I EXPECT to have lots of comments/additions from the attendees in the comments. My notes are pretty light, and after 4 months, I can't even read some of them. But we'll make the most of it. So here we go!

Tuesday, March 12

For obvious reasons, I was excited for this trip just to get away from the life of being a cancer patient. Since I had plenty of time on my hand, I was joking that I would spend 2 weeks in Vegas for all the conference tournaments. Instead, I decided to take the morning non-stop on Tuesday from Cincinnati and spend almost 5 full days for this trip - Tuesday through Sunday. Layup would come later on Tuesday, Wiz even later - and then the golfers Don, Mike D and Mike A would come in Wednesday morning. And then we had the expectant return of Micah on Wednesday! So 7 Vegas veterans for the trip.…. and 6 separate 7-way parlays each day!

Tuesday parlay - 5-2

The trip out was tiring. I was (and still am) getting used to being fatigued when I fly - so a 7 am eastern flight out was tough, and I tried to sleep but couldn't on the flight. So I arrived at around 9 am Pacific and was dead tired - with no room ready.

But first - time to sign up for the SuperContest! For the first time, sign ups for the Supercontest started March 1 so I could sign up this trip and not require a separate trip in August. I met the proxy in the dead Westgate Superbook at around 10 am on a Tuesday, and was a zombie. Signed up, waited there for all the parlay picks to come in from the group.....and then entered the first parlay of the trip at the Westgate. I couldn't do it at the Mirage since some of the picks were obscure teams like UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson - only available at the Westgate. Ah, I love this trip.

Back at the Mirage, with no supervision, the first gambling session was at UTH (of course), and was a complete disaster. It was so bad I had to get up from UTH and play High Card Flush. Layup showed up around lunch time - we had CPK and then I was off to our ready room to shower and nap.

Wiz got in later that afternoon and there was another UTH session that was non-descript - except for the big sports news of the day---- OBJ was traded to the Browns at this time!!! My phone was blowing up for a good 30 minutes - and the pit boss was NOT understanding. I was pissed. I couldn't respond to all the tweets and messages I was getting while playing speed UTH with Wiz and Layup. That was frustrating.

Dinner that night was the three of us at Heritage ---- and that was interesting. During the trip, I was having trouble eating red meat and had to keep my portions small - or else there would be some issues with vomiting/burping up air. And I had to limit my alcohol. So my order at Heritage that night - Lobster Bisque and chocolate milk while Layup and Wiz are enjoying filets and merlot. Yes, I was a bit jealous.

About 3/4 through the meal, I didn't feel that good and knew I would have to vomit up some air. I eft the restaurant and made a brisk walk to the elevator - and realized I may not make it. I eyed the trash can in the elevator lobby, which was right below the up/down buttons.   Ah - ok, let's make a beeline to the trash can just in case. Well, a family was in front of me and the 7 year old also sprinted to the elevator - so he could push the button to go up. No!!!!! I had to politely push him out of the way of the trash can so I could use it...….thankfully, I didn't need to.

After dinner, there was a disasterous (as usual) craps session, a neutral UTH session and the day ended with a new game for Vegas - Face Up Pai Gow! So now the Mirage has regular Pai Gow (with John as the star dealer there) and Face Up, which has taken over in Cincinnati.

Wednesday, March 13

First golf session of the trip that morning - at Canyon Gate CC, a new course in our rotation But first, I got all the picks for the parlay from the morning travelers.....and one of them included Lamar. I went to the Mirage book to place the parlay - and saw the Lamar game was not listed. I asked about it.

"What conference is that?"

Southland.

"Southwestern?"

No! Southland.

"Is that Division I?"

YES! you idiot!

If you are working in the book on Conference championship week, you better know the Div I conferences. Period. Who are they hiring in the book? So I decided to take a walk across the street to the Venetian where, yes, the Lamar game was listed and I put the parlay in.

Wed parlay - 4-3. Lamar did not come through. 

And before golf - some quick gambling at, you guessed it - Face up Pai Gow.

The weather all week in Vegas was cold - I bundled up as much I as I could on a blustery Sunday where the temperature never broke 65, I think , in the afternoon. I liked the course - driving the ball relatively well helped - but I got tired and faded over the last 3-4 holes. The highlight of the round was on the 11th hole, where Layup hit a ball off the tee left into the pines. He was next to a bush and about 10-15 feet inside the fence line protecting the course from million dollar mansions.

With an awkward stance, he swung - and I'm still not sure how this is physically possible, but the ball went about 85 degrees left. It hit the fence twice - BING BING - and we heard another BANG as the ball hit some house somewhere. Thank God it was about 2 pm and no one seemed to be at home in those houses.

Also - since we didn't know the course, gooches were prevalent. Drives that seemed to be down the middle started taking sloped we didn't know existed and ended up in the rough or worse, hazards. I remember one horrible moment by Layup on my drive on the 13th where my ball landed on the right edge of the fairway and ended up in the penalty area on the left - after Layup said "great drive". I think our gooch score that day was Layup 4, Eric 3.

All in all, a nice course to add in the rotation; the weather ruined it a bit but can't blame the course for that. Food and bar area was very nice as well.

We got back, and I think we saw Micah for the first time - at a usual position at a Pai Gow table with a cigarette in hand. Before dinner, we all joined him (around my nap) at Pai Gow and I think we introduced him to Face Up for the first time. I think ( but not sure) that he prefers the old style Pai Gow better. I have in my notes that Wiz got a straight flush in Pai Gow but misplayed it - Face up! - and ended up pushing instead of having an easy winner. How do you screw up a straight flush??

Dinner that night was Lavo - and, of course, it was great as usual. I passed on the Veal parm and had the pasta carbonara - which was a perfect choice for me. Micah was introduced to the Fried Oreos. There was a bit awkward conversation where I forgot he won the big golf pool last year and he didn't know about my SuperContest adventures in 2017.

Walking back from Lavo to the Mirage, it became clear on how low my energy levels were. I just couldn't keep up a normal walking pace on the strip - and lagged behind the group more and more. That was a little depressing - seeing a bit of deterioration of my stamina - but it could have been the golf that day.

The final session for me was a UTH session with the group, which ended up being the best session of my trip where I more than doubled my money. However, there was a lady at our table that I wrote as our "girlfriend" - she had her arm around Don and hit on Mike D, from my notes. Anyone remember this?

NFL Week 17

Well, here we are at the end of another season! No time for a big write up as I got up late to make the predictions for this final week. Note - not a lot of thought went into these! I think this is the laziest set of picks I have made in a while...

Buf 24, Mia 13
GB 30, Det 20
Hou 24, Jax 16
NE 23, NYJ 17
NO 26, Car 13
NYG 24, Dal 10
TB 27, Atl 20
KC 27, Oak 17
Min 26, Chi 13
Pit 27, Cin 10
Phi 26, Was 16
LAC 28, Den 10
LAR 27, SF 17
Sea 29, Az 13
Ten 24, Ind 21

Best bets: Last week: 7-5-1; overall: 95-104-8
Buf -5
NYJ +14
NYJ/NE under 46.5
NO -7.5
NYG -7
TB +2.5
Oak +14
Oak/KC under 52.5
Min -6
Cin/Pit under 45
Phi -6
LAC -7
Ten +4.5

Supercontest picks: Last week: 1-4. First week that I have scored less than 2 points in 32 weeks....
Overall: 40-37-3

Buf -3.5
NYG -6.5
Min -4.5
Phi -6.5
Ten +3

NFL Week 16

An early Merry Christmas to everyone out there! Unfortunately, no time for a snappy theme for the picks. Here are the predictions and picks:

Ten 24, Was 10
LAC 24, Bal 17
Atl 27, Car 20
Dal 30, TB 17
Det 23, min 20
Ind 30, NYG 16
Mia 23, Jax 13
NE 23, Buf 10
GB 27, NYJ 24
Phi 27, Hou 20
LAR 23, Az 10
Chi 20, SF 13
NO 33, Pit 20
KC 34, Sea 31
Oak 27, Den 13

Best bets: 13 of them. Last week: 6-5-2; overall: 88-99-7
Atl -3
Dal -7
Det +6
Ind -9.5
Mia -3.5
Buf/NE under 44
Phi -2.5
LAR/AZ under 44
Chi -4.5
Chi/SF under 42
NO -6.5
KC/Sea over 55
Oak +3


Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-2; overall: 39-33-3
Dal -7.5
Det +5.5
Mia -4
NO -6
Oak +2.5

NFL Week 15: My 600 Lb. Life

Hello on a victory Saturday night! That's a nice win for the Browns over the Broncos, 17-16. We tried to give the game away at the end with the ill-fated timeout by Williams as Denver was jumping offsides on a 4th and 1 - but the defense saved us.

We got the 600 lb. monster off our back in beating Denver - we lost 11 straight to them going back to 1990; that year we were 3-13 (Bud Carson was fired) and somehow one of those wins was a Monday night game in Denver on Week 5. Jerry Kauric (anyone remember him?) kicked a game winning FG as time expired......here it is! Al Michaels and others!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56vQgMtoU7o&t=138s

Wow. The names mentioned in this clip.... and a very dapper Dan Reeves....

We're still alive for a wild card … and the division! Rooting hard for the Pats, Bucs, Cowboys, Giants, and Vikings tomorrow. It is possible for us to be eliminated tomorrow.

Anyway, when I talk about 600 lb. monsters, your mind should go to one of TLC's most successful series - My 600 Pound Life!

Show: My 600 Lb. Life

Network: TLC

When: Thursday nights, plus random mornings

Stars: Dr. Younan Nowzaradan (Dr. Now)

Somehow, I got addicted to this show in the spring. The show is a 1 hour documentary of 12 months in the life of a grossly obese person and their journey to lose the weight. The starting weight of each patient is over 600 lbs. They all go and see the same doctor - Dr. Nowzaradan, a specialist in weight loss in Houston, TX.

There have been 6 seasons of the show- it first aired in February, 2012 as a mini series. The show was so popular that they decided to make it a full fledged series. The format of the show is pretty simple; we get introduced to the patient in question in "month 1" - we see how they live, some insight on diet and how they can and can't do routine activities (like bathe, cook, get to work). It can get graphic as we see them taking a shower with help, rub lotion all over their folds, etc.  In many cases, they have no idea how much they weigh.

At some point, they get an appointment with Dr. Now and head to the Houston office. This usually involves a long road trip of multiple hours, or in one case an ambulance ride from Dallas. Once they get to the office for their appointment, they get weighed - and the weigh in is always over 600 pounds. 600!

Dr. Now meets with them and puts them on a 1200 calorie/day diet full of protein and vegetables. He expects a 30 pound loss in the first month with the diet, and sternly talks to the patient. The patients all want stomach surgery to limit the appetite, but Dr. Now won't approve unless they make some progress with their weight.

The show can go in many directions from here. In some cases, the patient makes drastic changes in diet and exercise and achieves the weight loss; the surgery is seen and all is well. However,  in most cases, the patient can't get the 30 pound loss right away. They "try" to eat healthier but the environment gets in their way. This is when Dr. Now shows his asshole side - he will then start yelling at the patient hat they will die if they don't change. Stop enabling this person, he may say. No more fast food! he yells sometime.

In most cases, the weight loss is achieved eventually and surgery is approved; I've seen so many gastric surgeries on this show than I care to remember. The show ends at month 12, with mixed results - some are successful with a total weight loss of 200 pounds or more; others are flatlined.

There have been 70 episodes of the show, and only 4 patients have died. That's pretty amazing. And two of those were due to causes unrelated to weight!

I love Dr. Now. He starts with a very friendly demeanor (with his trademark "Hello!") but it's clear he has little patience for people that don't follow his directions. His blunt style is what these people (and their families) need to hear in order to save their lives.

I think we can equate Dr. Now with Gregg Williams as Williams tries to resurrect this franchise. Let's keep the momentum going - and the Steelers losses coming, too!

On to the games:

Atl 23, Arz 17. Boy oh boy, Atlanta is the walking dead here. They have given up - and a team that has given up should not be laying double digits.

Bal 27, TB 13. Can't see the Ravens losing focus here. An inconsistent Winston against this pass D? I expect the Ravens D to score 7-10 points by themselves.

Buf 20, Det 13. Still love the Bills (and their D) at home, regardless of last week's fluke vs. the Jets.

Chi 24, GB 17. Trubisky at home will move the ball enough to get the win here.

Oak 26, Cin 23. I think Oakland's pass offense - centered around Cook - will be able to move the ball easily against the Bengals. Over under on attendance here: 17,500.

Ind 30, Dal 20. Horrid spot for Dallas after 3 home games. The Colts are desperate and have the run D to contain Elliott and the Cowboys.

Jax 20, Was 10. Do I need to comment any more on this game? Kessler giving more than 7 - and it makes sense?

Min 27, Mia 20. I think the Vikings D is overrated and Miami will score enough to make it close. But the Miami D will let up plenty of yards.

Ten 24, NYG 20. The Giants have played well of late, but against who? Bucs, 49ers, Redskins? The Titans are a well coached team and will out-think Shurmur.

Sea 30, SF 20. The Seahawk train will keep rolling. I just can't see how the Niners keep pace here against the balanced Seattle attack.

NE 30, Pit 27. The Pats have the Steelers number. Both teams are desperate - have to go with the better coach here.

LAR 31, Phi 17. Is Foles that much of a downgrade from Wentz? Probably not. However, the Rams will come out and run right over the Eagles and establish dominance.

Car 27, NO 24. It's a confluence of factors - home Monday night underdog, plus this is the Saints' 3rd road game in a row. I know Cam has sucked, but can't go against those factors.

Best bets: 13 of them. Last week: 6-7; overall: 82-94-5
Az +10
Bal -8
TB/Bal under 46.5
Buf -2.5
Buf/Det under 40
Oak +3
Oak/Cin over 45.5
Ind -3
Ten -1
Sea -3.5
Sea/SF over 44
Phi/LAR under 52
Car +6.5

Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-2; overall: 36-31-3
Bal -7.5
Buf -2.5
Ten +2.5
Sea -4.5
Car +6.5

NFL Week 14: Hoarders

Back to the themed picks this week ! Today, we look at one of the standard bedrocks for A&E that opened America's eyes to a new disease - hoarding!

Show: Hoarders

Network: A&E

Time: Weekend mornings

Stars: No regular stars during the series

Ah yes, Hoarders! A look at the inside lives of people that can't get rid of anything and just collect, collect, collect for multiple decades. It's not really a humorous show - it's mostly educational to show how deep in denial (or mentally sick) some of the hoarders really are.

The hour long show focuses on two separate people whose extreme hoarding is at a point to cause massive issues in their life. Usually, it's at a point where the person will lose their kids or will be evicted unless the house is cleaned up. Family members call for help and the A&E comes out to start taping!

The first 20, 30 minutes of the show gives an overview of the current situation - pictures of the living room, bedroom, kitchen - and some background on why this may have happened. The house usually is piled from floor to ceiling with stuff - clothes, collectibles, VCR tapes, etc. There's no room to sit down anywhere in the house, or to walk anywhere - paths over stuff are created to move around. There are no open counter spaces in the kitchens; it's been years since anyone actually have cooked in the kitchen. Sleeping arrangements are sometimes a sheet on a couch or a mattress in a corner of a common room. The saddest cases are when kids are involved and we see their rooms.

A therapist is introduced to talk to the hoarder, to understand the background behind it, and to try to convince the hoarder to move forward with cleaning. The therapist then leads the cleaning process - a professional team comes to help clean out the house (think of 1 800 GOT JUNK) and the team - including family members - try to throw stuff out.

That's when the fun and conflicts begin. The second half of the show usually is about the fights the hoarder has with the family members about what to throw out - beanie babies, clothes, canned goods, cassettes, lamps, etc. It's fascinating to see what people can really get attached to. However, I can understand a bit of it - in our office closet at home, I have my NFL betting notebooks and Vegas notebooks from 2006-on. If anyone asked me to throw those out, I'd be pissed and throw a tantrum.

The endings are not always happy; a lot of episodes end with the process about 75% done since they couldn't make enough process in time for an inspection. We really don't get the follow up story 6 months later to see if the changes that were made lasts, or if the hoarder when right back to fill up the now-cleaned house. I think the show intended to focus more on the psychiatric side of hoarding instead of the "before and after" picture of the clean up.

The show started on A&E in 2009; some of you may be asking "well, who would actually watch this show?" According to Wikipedia, Hoarders was the most-watched premier of any show on A&E, watched by 2.5 million people. It went 9 seasons and ended in 2017.

The one complaint I have about the show is that it seems like perfect fare for late-night TV. It's not a show for the mornings for people with weak stomachs; I don't like seeing maggots in warm fridges while eating my scrambled eggs at 9 am. Put this on at 10 pm!

Anyway - to segue to the Browns, we need to start Hoarding wins immediately. The last 4 games are winnable - Carolina, at Denver, Cincy, and at Baltimore. Is a wild card possible at 8-7-1? No, probably not, but it's great to talk about this again in December.

And I need to start hoarding wins for my picks, especially the Supercontest picks. I think I need to go about 16-4 for the last 4 weeks to have an outside chance at the money. It's not over, but I need a 5-0 or 4-1 week really quick.

To the games:

Buf 24, NYJ 13.  I will continue to sing the praises of Buffalo at home, and Josh Allen is not quitting. Neither are the Bills coaches. The Jets? They had their last hurrah last week.

GB 27, Atl 20. Betting on a bounce back for the Pack after McCarthy was let go. How much conflict was there between McCarthy and Rodgers? We'll find out at 1 pm today.

Hou 30, Ind 20. I don't see the Colts as the team to stop the Texans' juggernaut. They are playing well, especially at home.

KC 27, Bal 23. The Chiefs have the worst run D in the league - and Baltimore has Lamar. Is that enough? Fascinating to see the Ravens' O game plan here.

NE 26, Mia 17. No real clue here. I know the Pats don't play well in Miami, but they should be able to move the ball ok, right?

NO 30, TB 27.  A game the Saints usually have trouble with; the back door will be wide open here for the Bucs.

NYG 24, Was 17. Not sure how the Skins recover from Monday night. Sanchez is so ineffective, and the weapons just aren't there on offense due to injuries.

LAC 27, Cin 20. Anyone seen the Chargers schedule? Emotional game in Pitt last Sunday; Thu night coming up they face the Chiefs. A perfect spot for a let down here.

Den 24, SF 17. Maybe Kyle isn't as good as I give him credit for. The team is playing worse and worse each week.

Dal 23, Phi 17.  I just don't see how the Eagles win this. They are not good - and only won on Monday because of McCoy's injury. Dallas continues their roll.

Az 26, Det 20. The Cardinals are another team that don't seem to have given up yet; Rosen still is learning and trying to show his talent. Detroit lost 3 home games in a row and now go on the road.

Pit 30, Oak 24. I've given up trying to figure out the Steelers this year. And Oakland should be able to move the ball vs. the mediocre pass D for the Steelers.

LAR 27, Chi 24. Lot of sharps are picking the Bears here. I don't see it; don't like Trubisky against a good D like the Rams.

Sea 27, Min 17. Riding the Seahawk train, especially at home. Can't back Kirk Cousins on the road, in Seattle, Monday night, in a game Seattle has to win.

Best bets:  13 of them. Last week: 7-5; overall: 76-87-5.
Buf -4
GB -4
Hou -4
NE/Mia under 48.5
TB +10
NYG -3
Cin +15
Den -3.5
Az +3
Det/Az over 40.5
Dal -3
Oak +10
Sea -3

Supercontest picks: last week: 3-2; overall: 33-29-3
Buf -3
GB -5.5
Cin +14
Az +2.5
Sea -3.5

NFL Week 13 Picks

Sorry - no time for a themed write up this week. My predictions for the games for week 13:

Bal 23, Atl 20
Den 24, Cin 13
LAR 34, Det 26
GB 31, Az 17
Ind 24, Jax 17
Mia 27, Buf 17
Chi 24, NYG 20
KC 31, Oak 17
Ten 23, NYJ 20
NE 31, Min 20
Sea 30, SF 16
Pit 31, LAC 24
Was 23, Phi 20

Best bets; Last week: 3-8; overall: 69-82-5
Bal +2.5
Den -4.5
Den/Cin under 44.5
LAR/Det over 53.5
GB/Az over 41
Mia -3.5
Car/TB over 52.5
NYJ +10
NE -5
Sea -10
Pit -3
Was +6

Supercontest picks: last week: 2-3; overall: 30-27-3
Den -4.5
Mia -4.5
NYJ +7.5
NE -5
Was +6

NFL Week 12: Bar Rescue

For this week's show to review, we look at Bar Rescue! This seems to be one of the 4 shows that the Paramount network has on its regular rotation, so it is almost always on - and I am still seeing episodes that I haven't watched come up!

Name: Bar Rescue

Starring: Jon Taffer

Network: Paramount Network

Time: Sunday nights, almost every weekday morning

Bar Rescue is one of those "makeover" programs, focusing on struggling bars. It's hard for me to believe that this show has been around for 6 years - and over 170 episodes in the vault. They are still filming episodes, as there are new ones being broadcast at 10 pm on Sundays. 

Basically, struggling bar owners write in to Jon Taffer asking him to help save their bar; they are usually in debt over 6 figures (sometimes up to a million) and need Taffer's help to see what is wrong. The Bar Rescue team then installs hidden cameras in the bar to collect info for a few weeks on the operation of the bar. 

Each episode is usually the same; the episode opens with Taffer and his team sitting in a car outside the bar watching the operation. Sometimes they will send spies in to order drinks and food to see how they are treated. This is where we learn that the owner is lazy, and drunk; the bartenders don't know basic drinks; security is lax, and the food is gross. 

At some point, Taffer says "I've had enough - I'm heading in" as he leaves his car to confront the owner. Then he goes on a yelling rampage with his observations - yes, always yelling - to get his point across. Then we go to a commercial break. 

After the break, it's the next morning with a staff meeting, and Taffer leads it, and is much calmer; the focus usually is on one part of the operation - the kitchen, the raccoons in the bar, the sexual harassment, etc. By the middle of the episode, personnel decisions have to be made- do we want to fire one of the offending personnel?

They do some training and then a "stress test" - where Taffer fills up the bar with customers to see how the bar will operate at full capacity. This is always a mess. No one can keep up with drinks, and bartenders screw up again, and Taffer keeps yelling. Now that they now the specific weak areas, more training is given and Taffer and his team makes renovations to the bar.

The episode ends with the unveiling of the changes and another soft opening, where the customers are now happily served and everything works well. Taffer leaves, saying "my work is done here". 

Yes, it's formulaic - but we learn so much about the industry. It's amazing to me how many of the owners just buy bars as their own personal party place- finances be damned. The kitchens are usually a mess - and makes me think twice about ordering bar food in a dark joint again. And maybe I do like whiskey drinks - they've just been made by idiots so they taste bad!

Well, after last week's picks, I think I need Taffer to come into the blog and rescue my selection process. What a bloodbath last week. It's a miracle I went 3-2 in the Supercontest. I think I got every other pick wrong in my "best bets" section. Ugh. 

It can't get much worse this week - can it? On to the previews:

Bal 24, Oak 10. Don't see how Oakland will move the ball much against this defense. Another start for Lamar to see how he does.

Buf 16, Jax 13. I firmly believe Buffalo is an average home team, especially with Barkley, and Jacksonville has now checked out after last week's choke.

Car 27, Sea 20. Seattle can't keep giving 100% week after week. They are due a letdown at some point- and Carolina can't afford to lose this. 

NE 27, NYJ 17. What to say? I still don't know how good or average the Patriots are. 

Phi 31, NYG 24. How do we evaluate the Eagles now? Is Wentz really all that good? Are the Giants surging? Should be an interesting game.

SF 31, TB 27. I like this Niners team, and Shanahan the coach will demolish this bad Bucs D.

LAC 24, Az 10. Something is off with the Chargers - they can't finish drives, they can't get the big stop....Arizona won't take advantage, but this won't be a blowout.

Ind 31, Mia 20. Love the way the Colts are playing now, especially at home. Not sure how the Dolphins stop Indy.

Pit 27, Den 20. Pit had their wake up call last week and will come out firing against the Broncos D. They should be able to stop Keenum as well.

Min 30, GB 20. This is it for the Pack. The divorce between McCarthy and Rodgers is coming -and they may have already checked out. 

Hou 23, Ten 16. Hou's run D will be too much for the Titans attack. 

Best bets: 11 of them. Last week: 3-9-1; overall: 66-74-5

Oak/Bal under 42.5

Buf +3

Buf/Jax under 37.5

Car -3

NYG/Phi over 48

SF +2

Az/LAC under 43.5

Ind -8

Pit -3

Min -3

Hou -4

Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-2; overall: 28-24-3

Buf +3

Car -3.5

SF +3.5

Pit -3

Min -3.5

NFL Week 11: Barefoot Contessa

The Browns have a bye after a great win at home vs. Atlanta. Our record is now 3-6-1, and one hates to second-guess games over the past 10 weeks that could have gone our way. Specifically:
- looking back, how did we lose to Oakland? How did Oakland score 45 against us?
- that Tampa game - and the 59 yard kick by Canizaro - was a complete farce. We had no business losing that game
- and then there was the Saints game - now it's shocking we only lost by 3 to them on the road! And we could have easily won that with an average kicker.

So we realistically could be 6-3-1, and leading the wild card chase in the AFC. Argh. So frustrating. At least one of our issues has been removed (Hue).

Anyway, it's time to take a breath, sit back and relax this week and watch other teams flail. And there's one show on that I watch that is "feel-good" TV - sit back, watch, and get a smile on my face. I'm a sap for Ina Garten and the Barefoot Contessa.

Show: The Barefoot Contessa

Network: Food Network

Time: Weekends, around 8:30 am

Starts: Ina Garten, Jeffrey Garten

What else to say? I enjoy watching Ina cook as she gets ready for her dinner parties. Each show usaually is about a dinner party she is preparing for her friends in the Hamptons on Long Island. How will she make a fancy feast for 6-8 in just a few hours with minimal to no work? It's easy!

Ina takes the viewers on that journey, starting from the items as bought - from a butcher, fish market, or vegetable stand- usually asking the vendor to prep it in some way for ease. ("I asked to butcher to tie this roast for me - so easy, and it saves time"). Then she whips together some sauce or marinade for the meat - can be done in 30 seconds or so - places it on the meat, and voila! "Put in the oven for 60 minutes.

How easy is that?

She repeats for a vegetable and a side - dishes that seem like they need 45 seconds to prepare, if you have everything pre-measured and cut from the store - and there you go! An elegant dinner party in just 5 minutes!

Ina got her start in cooking after marrying Jeffrey in 1968; he was in the military and they were stationed in France; he started to learn cooking methods over there and was enthralled by all the food markets in France. They came back to the US and Ina worked - can you believe this - in the Office of Management and Budget under Ford and Carter.

She quit the government work in the 70s and focused on working full time in cooking; she bought a store called "Barefoot Contessa" and owned that for 20 years. She then went into publishing cookbooks in the late 90s and was a complete surprise hit. I think I bought 3 of these cookbooks for Janice as Christmas gifts in the early 2000s.

She was approached for a show for the Food Network in 2002 - and she turned it down multiple times before finally agreeing; it was the top rated show on the Network for years. It played constantly on the Asia satellite channel when we were in Guangzhou; Janice and I would watch marathons when we were bored.

So that's my comfort food on this bye weekend. Settle down and watch Ina cook a banquet for 8 in 11 minutes flat. About as fast as Nick Chubb's time to run 92 yards against the swiss chees Atlanta defense!

To the picks:

Atl 34, Dal 23. Talking about the Falcons, they are a different team at home and I don't see Dallas outscoring them. I know Zeke may have 200+ yards.....Julio will have 200 of his own.

Bal 30, Cin 17. I think the Bengals are done. Very interesting to see what Jackson can do for the Ravens today.

Car 31, Det 27. A sneaky hard game for the Panthers. They struggle on the road and Detroit will put up points at home. The Lions could actually sneak this one out.

Ind 27, Ten 20. Playing the home teams big this week. Tennessee is coming off their emotional win vs. the Pats, and the Colts offense looks very good. The Colts will do just enough on D to win.

NYG 24, TB 20. I can't talk rationally about the Bucs anymore. They should score 35 every game but a comedy of errors each week prevents them from doing that. They are the Browns of the NFC.

Hou 23, Was 20. No real clue here. I just think Hou's run D will force the Skins to pass more than they want, and they just don't have the weapons in the passing game.

Pit 27, Jax 20. Waiting for the annual Pittsburgh road misstep vs. an inferior opponent. This could be the time. Jax's offense looked competent in the second half last week.

Az 23, Oak 13. What to say about the Raiders any more? Not sure how they get more than 13 against a pretty good defense on the road. I like Rosen to move the ball here.

LAC 24, Den 20. The Chargers can be stopped by good defenses, and Denver has an OK defense. he Chargers won't run away with this one.

NO 34, Phi 31. This is the final stand for Philly; I think they will move the ball in the air against the weak Saints pass D. The Saints will do just enough to win.

Chi 23, Min 21. Not the biggest fan of the 1-dimensional Vikes offense - no running game yet - and that plays into the Bears' hands. And the Bears are a much better offensive team at home.

KC 33, LAR 30. Just a hunch; the Rams have not been playing excellent football recently, especially defensively, and the injury of Cupp is big.

Best bets: 13 of them. Last week: 6-5-1; overall: 63-65-4
Sea -2.5 (Winner! Had this for the Supercontest too!)
Atl -3
Dal/Atl over 49.5
Bal -5.5
Ind -1.5
Car/Det over 49.5
TB/NYG under 53
AZ -5
Oak/Az under 41
Den +7
Phi +7.5
Phi/NO over 56
KC +3.5

Supercontest picks: last week: 2-2-1; overall: 25-22-3
Sea -2.5 (winner!)
Atl -3.5
Ind -2
Phi +8.5
KC +3.5

NFL Week 10: Cheaters

Cheaters! Ah yes, the pinnacle of reality TV. I was on the couch most of Saturday morning (yesterday) and watched a 3 hour marathon - surprisingly satisfying! It's like a bite size Halloween candy - fun, short, easy to enjoy and you don't feel guilty for having more than one!

Show: Cheaters

Network: VH1

When: Saturday mornings, 6am - 2 pm

Main Characters: Joey Greco, Clark Gable

Where to start? I remember this show when it first came out in 2000. Oooh boy, Janice hated when I watched this show on Saturday nights before we went out or something. (That was before kids and we actually went out.) It's still on the air after all these years!

The show Cheaters is produced by the Cheaters Detective Agency, who tries to get video evidence that a partner is cheating. The partner that is concerned comes to the agency with their story - "my lover is now distant and working a lot! - and asks for help to see if their partner is actually cheating.

The Detective Agency then stakes out the suspect - at home, at work, other places, and gets video evidence of any canoodling. Could be video of picking up a new girl on the way home from work, going to an apartment when the suspect is supposedly visiting family, etc. The video usually shows some kissing and hugging and nothing too graphic. (Although one episode yesterday involved footage from cameras inside a house and they captured a sex scene).

With indisputable evidence that the suspect is cheating, the Cheaters Detective Agency then takes the footage to the client to show her/him. This is a complete surprise to the client! Lots of tears and ranting. Then the big question:

"Our agents know the suspect is with the third party right now. Do you want to go and confront the suspect ?"

Of course, the answer is yes-  and the final part of the show begins - the Confrontation!

The confrontation involves 10-12 staffers of the agency (cameramen, soundmen) with the host of the show and the client. The client usually comes flying in and starting flailing at the suspect - "How could you? Who the hell is this slut?" as the suspect is completely blindsided. Our hosts tries to act like John Chancellor and get the suspect's side of the story in a calm manner -but that's not going to happen.

Sometimes there's violence- there was one show where Joey the host apparently got stabbed, but others claim that was made up. Making up scenes for TV? I've never heard of that.

Episodes usually end with the client saying "I never want to see you again!!!!" The last bit of the sow is the epilogue - after a few days, does the client really mean that? It's about 50/50 if the client gets back together with the suspect for "one more chance" or if they cut ties for good.

It's all packaged together in a neat 30 minute show - predictable, entertaining, and sometimes fakily violent! What else do you want in a reality show? Oh yes- the hosts! I always associated Joey Greco with this show - he was the host for 11 years up until 2013 - and then a stranger named Clark Gable became the host. I asked myself "What kind of idiot would make that up as a stage name?? Why would you do that to yourself?" However, in actuality, the Cheaters Clark Gable is the actual grandson of the real Clark Gable! Who knew?

I fell like a Cheaters client every time I go to a Browns game in Cleveland - I love this team, this is the week they will do well.....and of course, the video tape and the game shows a massive disappointment. We head to the parking lot and the 4+ hour drive back - and I ask myself each time... "Why do I do this? It's not worth it. I'm not doing it again"...

And here we are, a few days later, as I act like the jilted client - "well, he's not that bad. I'll give him another chance. What's the home schedule for 2019?"

On to the games...

Chi 27, Det 17. Trubisky is a fine QB at home - and the problems of the Lions OL will show up again here.

NO 30, Cin 23. Did you enjoy the Dez Bryant Saints era? Can see both teams moving the ball here, and a big game by Joe Mixon.

Jax 23, Ind 17. Let's not go crazy on the Colts. Their last two games - which were wins - were against Oakland and the Bills. The Jags will put up some defense here.

KC 27, Az 10. Classic Milton Berle game for the Chiefs here. They will only do what's needed to win. The Az defense will actually force them to punt a few times (unlike Cleveland last week).

NYJ 24, Buf 17. McCown is still younger than Brady - how about that? And Barkley will score some points for the Bills -it can't get any worse, right?

TB 30, Was 20. Just too many injuries for Washington here. The Bucs should get some pressure on Smith and I can't see the Skins surviving in a high scoring game.

NE 27, Ten 17. Just don't see the Titans getting over 20 points here, and the Pats will be able too. I know it's Vrabel vs. his old team - just don't see the firepower.

LAC 26, Oak 23. Look, the Chargers haven't been home since week 5. It's week 10 now. They have played at Cle, in London, a bye, at Seattle, and now another road game. It has to catch up to them.

GB 31, Mia 24. No idea here. Still hate the Packers D which will allow a Miami backdoor possible.

LAR 30, Sea 24. There are significant holes in the Rams defense that a good offense will exploit. We saw that with the Packers and Saints. The Hawks aren't at that level, but close.

Dal 23, Phi 21. OK, everyone, let's slow down on Philly. Philly still has problems on the offensive side and Dallas has a decent D. And Zeke should gain lots of yards against Phi's run D.

NYG 24, SF 23. Who knows. I'm betting that Mullins can't make back to back points here.

Best bets: 12 of them. Last week: 6-6; overall: 57-60-3
Chi -7
Jax +3
Jax/Ind under 47
Az/KC under 49.5
Buf/NYJ over 36.5
TB -3
NE -6.5
Oak +10
Mia/GB over 47.5
Sea/LAR over 50
Dal +7.5
NYG +3.5

Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-2; overall: 23-20-2
Chi -6.5
Jax +3
TB -3
Oak +9.5
Dal +6.5

NFL Week 9

Sorry - no write up of a key show this week as we are getting on the road to Cleveland for the game today! My predictions:

Bal 24, Pit 17
Atl 27, Was 24
NYJ 23, Mia 20
Min 31, Det 24
Chi 20, Buf 10
Car 30, TB 20
Sea 29, LAC 23
Hou 24, Den 23
NO 31, LAR 28
NE 34, GB 28
Dal 20, Ten 17

Best bets: 12 of them. last week: 5-7, overall: 51-54-3

Bal -2.5
Bal/Pit under 47
Atl +2
NYJ +3
Det/Min over 48.5
Chi/Buf under 37.5
Car -6.5
Sea pk
Hou +1
NO +2
GB/NE over 56
Ten +4

Supercontest picks: Last week: 2-3, overall 20-18-2
Bal -3
NYJ +3
Hou +1
NO -1.5
Ten +6.5