Week 8

I agree, Gigante!

Baltimore -12.5
Houston -9.5
Buffalo -6
Dallas +3.5
Kansas City +3.5

NFL Week 8 :Palazzo

The Browns this week play at San Francisco - a team they have not lost in 20 years! I remember a Monday night game in Cleveland in 1993 that I attended - Joe Montana came to town, and we were big underdogs. Belicheck had a great game plan to shut down (or, rather, contain) the Niners and Michael Dyson (he was Michael Jackson, if you recall) had 2 touchdowns in the big win.

This is a test - believe it or not, the Browns are 3-3. Are they for real? Many will answer no, but we shall see. If they win - or even keep it close - it is a good sign for the team.

It's very much like our annual $25 craps run we have in Vegas - usually done at the Palazzo. The Palazzo is an upscale casino, and it's nice to try to test your skills at the high-roller place. The dealers are awesome, as they are sincerely rooting for you. If you can survive for more than an hour at the $25 craps table at the Palazzo, that is a stripe on your uniform.

Let's see if the Browns can get that stripe today.

To the games:

Bal 31, Arz 10. The Ravens are as mad as hornet's nest, and will take it out on a horrible road team.

Min 27, Car 20. Just a hunch. I think Ponder will continue to impress, and the Viking defense is just good enough to win.

Hou 24, Jax 10. I think we see just how bad the Jag's offense is - I think the Texans will be able to score in the 20s.

Ten 20, Ind 13. Have the Colts now officially given up for the season?

NO 30, StL 10. Should we ask the same question about the Rams?

NYG 24, Mia 20. Something about this game is fishy. I think the Giants' D is awful - see the loss to Seattle - and Miami's defense is halfway decent. I think the Dolphins keep it close.

Buf 31, Was 17. I don't see how the Redskins can keep up with the Bills' offense.

Det 23, Den 20. I have no idea on this game. Let's wait a few weeks to really evaluate Tebow.

Pit 34, NE 31. Yes, yes, I know, NE dominates Pit at Heinz field. But the Steelers match up well.

Cin 17, Sea 13. Ugh. My eyeballs still hurt watching Seattle try to move the ball last week.

Dal 27, Phi 24. I think the Cowboys are balanced enough to win this. And I believe Rob Ryan will be able to contain Vick.

KC 24, SD 23. Another blown game by Rivers, Turner and co.

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 8-6; overall: 61-41-7.
Bal -12.5
Min +3.5
Hou -9.5
Jax/Hou under 41
Ind/Ten under 44
NO -13
NO/StL under 48
Mia +9.5
Buf -6
Pit +2.5
NE/Pit over 52.5
Dal +3
KC +3

Picks for week 7

What is with that hair?

Detroit -3
Tampa Bay +1
Houston+3
San Diego -2
Kansas City +4

NFL Week 7: Venetian Macao

Hello - we are typing this week's preview live from - the Venetina Macao! The boys have school off on Monday and Tuesday for parent conferences, so we decided to take a long weekend and head here for 2 days. Actually, I was here last week to see a college friend who was in town (the immortal Ken from the golf team), so this is my second consecutive Sunday at the Venetian.

The Venetian is the biggest casino in the world, although it doesn't seem like it. It's all in one big room, unlike the MGM, which has its floor space broken up into multiple areas. The main game is baccarat, which is played very much like poker....the cards are dealt down to the player, who then pulls up a corner (like he's shielding the cards from....I'm not sure who), bends then back, puts a crease in the cards, studies them - and then flings them in anger at the dealer. It's like Steve and I playing gin back in the 90s. ("You have gin, sir? Well F you" - as I throw my ten cards in his face).

The cards are only used once, and then disposed.

A new came is here - I'm not sure what it is called, but it is a 10-foot diameter ring with a super model. SHe is flipping a coin - and the bettors around the ring bet on either green (phoenix) or red (dragon). I'm not sure where the commission comes in....but all it looks like is people better on the flip of a coin by Miss Macau 2012.

I've talked about craps before - but it is still fascinating that everyone plays the numbers and only about 30-40% of the people play the pass line. I was rolling, and in the middle of my roll I rolled a 3...no big deal, no harm done.....the guy next to me turned his numbers off.

After I hit the point, and established another, I did the same thing...and he turned his numbers off again.....and then, on another roller, someelse else joined him. The different superstitions that they have on this game fascinate me.

Speaking of "3", the winner of the Browns-Seahawks game will (believe it or not) be 3-3 on the season. Let's not lose a 1 pm home game to the worst road team in the league....

On to the games....

Hou 27, Ten 21. I believe this is a desperate time for Houston -they can't lose 3 in a row, especially to a division opponent. Desperate times call for desperate measures...

SD 24, NYJ 16. A big test for both teams - are the Jets still a good team? If so, they will win. If the Chargers are elite, they will win here.

Det 27, Atl 13. The Falcons are overrated, and the Lions won't lose 2 straight at home.

Was 19, Car 16. I don't really have a good idea. Why do I think Shanahan will get this team ready to play, after last week's performance? Maybe Beck will provide some magic.

TB 23, Chi 17. The Bears overperformed last week, and they will prove this week they are an average offensive team.

Mia 17, Den 13. Miami's offense - even with Moore - will move the ball vs. Denver's weak defense. And Miami will be pissed that they are honoring Tebow at halftime.

KC 23, Oak 20, OT. Boller will start? He looked awful last week.

Pit 31, Az 20. The Cardinals have a bad pass defense - and Pittsburgh (make no mistake) is a passing team.

Dal 23, StL 10. I see the Rams putting up a little fight - this is a letdown game in a way for the Cowboys - but they won't be able to last with Feeley at the helm.

GB 27, Min 17. Yeah, this should be a 24-point thrashing by the Pack. Maybe Peterson will give some spark here.

NO 34, Ind 16. The COlts are in a horrible position....losing motivation just as they go to New Orleans, who needs a win to keep pace in the division. The Saints will be up 20 at half.

Bal 24, Jax 16. I think this will be a Monday night stinkfest. Hope Ray Rice can get me some yards and TDs.

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 7-7-1; overall: 53-35-7.

Hou +3
SD +1
Det -4
Atl/Det under 47
Was +2.5
Was/Car under 43.5
TB +2
Mia +1
Den/Mia under 41.5
KC +4
Pit -3.5
Pit/Az over 44
StL/Dal under 43
NO -13.5

Eric's Culinary History

Last week on Yahoo, I saw a link that was a list of "America's Disappearing Restaurant Chains". I thought that would be good for 2 minutes of entertainment - I thought York's Steak House or Bill Knapp (that was then, this is WOW) would be 1 and 2.....

.... 30 minutes later, I was sad, depressed, with a tear in my eye. This list brings back so many memories! I have personal experiences with 8 out of the top 10!

1. Bennigan's
There was one mall in Iowa when we lived there in 2004-05, the Coralville mall. Attached to the mall was a Target, where we (of course) made 5,215 stops at over 2 years. Next to the Target, accesible through the mall and through Target, was Bennigan's. We spent countless winter nights at Bennigan's, watching god-awful Big Ten basketball (Penn St. vs Minnesota, anyone?) and trying to make a 4-year old Freddie eat one piece of honey-mustard drenched lettuce and a 18-month-old Warren just eat one piece of hot dog (and no, not the piece that just fell on the floor).

2. Ground Round
Wow, this alone makes me cry. What a treat for Layup and me growing up when Dad would come home on a Friday and say: "it's payday! Let's go to Ground Round!" We'd either go to the one in Timonium (there was one there, right?) or up in York...and I would have the Salisbury steak. I'm a grown man- I'm 14! No hamburger for me! Give me the Salisbury steak - and then I would drench it with A1. MMMmmmmmmmmmmmm......
(There was a Ground Round in Iowa - I tried to take Janice there, she wanted no part of it....)

3. Baker's Square
Well, this is a must for any college student in NE Ohio. How many locations of Bakers' Square were there in Cleveland in the eatly 90s? 40? 50? There was one near every Finast, that's for sure. A slice of French Silk pie to go, please!

4.Damon's
Bakers' Square was college food....but you aspired to graduate from college to eat and watch sports at Damon's! I disticntly remember driving by a Damon's in March, 1994 in Solon (or Mayfield - somewhere on the east side) saying to myself: "I can't wait to have a job and money, so I can blow 2 days just sitting at Damon's, eating the Big Onion Loaf and watching the NCAA tournament......."

and when I got my first job in Dayton, that's exactly what I did in 1996!!!!My friend Paul and I spent 10 hours at the Damon's on Dorothy Lane watching the games. My first car - a brown Toyota Celica hand me down from Mom and Dad - turned 100,000 miles as I was driving to Damon's.

And that's where I watched this game - a game that brings a smile to any ACC fan......

5. Don Pablo's
How in the hell is this place on the list? I went here for lunchat least once a week for 3 years. Find a warehouse, serve cheap Mexican food, overcharge for it, serve expensive and fruity Margaritas.....profit! How do you screw that up?
Don Pablo's was one of only like 4 restaurants near her apartment in 1996-7 in Springdale, near Tri County mall. It was packed at 4:30 pm every day. There was a 20 minute wait every time we went - and we went often. How did they screw this up so badly??

7. Big Boy
If you have stepped foot in Ohio, then you must have eaten here at some point. What's your favorite thing? I was not a regular customer, but several friends kept trying to take us to the Big Boy's breakfast buffet on the weekend. Sorry, I prefer Shoney's.

8. Tony Roma's
Ah, another restaurant which you only aspired to go to when you were in college. There was a Tony Roma's on Mayfield on Birch in Beachwood/Mayfield Village (Kermit, is that right??) that we would drive past every day to and from golf practice. Ribs.....is there anything better to eat after a round of golf? 2 or three times in our career,we would get our $8 meal money for dinner after a tournament, and then grab some more money from the ATM and head to Tony Roma's......for completeyly average ribs that seemed at the time to be worth a million dollars.

9. Country Kitchen
Ah, another Iowa speciality. I think I went to a few of these on my travels around the state for golf....taking my 15-year old caddy with me into the restaurant. A lower-quality Bob Evans, with good breakfast.


So many memories.....all about to disappear.....

Week 6

This week's picks:

Car +4
Ind +7
Pit -12
Chi -2.5
NYJ -7

NFL Week 6: The (Late) New Frontier

The Browns are coming off a bye this week, going to Oakland – and facing the Raiders in the first home game since Al Davis died. I have many good memories about the Browns going to Oakland and winning –there was the classic game in 2005 where we won 9-7 (three Dawson field goals); who can forget a game in 1993 when Eric Metcalf returned a punt for a TD in the 2nd half to win.
Of course, there was a big loss in 2007 – the year we went 10-6 – when we were down 2 in the last seconds; Dawson kicked a 40 yard field goal to win – except Oakland called time out right before the snap. After the time out, the kick was blocked; that loss cost us a division titie and a playoff spot.

I had a 5 year bye myself with casino gambling from 1994-99. When I returned to Vegas for the 2nd time ever with Layup in 99, we stayed at one of the old classic casinos that is no longer there – the Frontier. They made low rollers feel right at home. $5 craps player? Great! Have a buffet coupon! To a young gambler, that was heaven – we felt like Sally Field. “They like us! They really like us!”

It had all the basics for a low budget, serious gambler – low limit blackjack, crpas tables, and roulette table. I think the dealers were actually friendly, too – they talked to you, not lke that pompous joint across the street (the Desert Inn). If you wanted a break from gambling at the Frontier, they had Keno; they also had the manual, whiteboard sportsbook. That huge whiteboard was mesmerizing during an NFL weekend.

We were able to overlook the cigarette burns in the bedsheets and the worn out carpet throughout the casino. Also,you had to get through the picketers out front – but if you never left the casino, you didn’t have to worry about it! I think Layup had his first major craps run here during this trip.

On to the games for week 6:

Car 27, Atl 23 – I just don’t like what I see rom Atlanta. You can’t take that big lead against GB, at home, in a primetime game, and then come out flat. And Carolina is rady to win a road game now. Us Browns fans would be very happy to see the Falcons keep losing.

Cin 20, Ind 17 – I know, I can’t help myself. I just don’t see the Bengals blowing anybody out.

Det 31, SF 23 – I think this Lion team is the real deal – they have the QB, WR and some running game, and the front seven of the defense is solid. And the 49ers now have injuries at the WR position.

GB 34, StL 17 – I can see the Rams scoring some points, but how is anyone going to stop the Packers?

Buf 30, NYG 27, OT – I was able to watch the Giants/Seahawks game last night; I can’t get the vision of Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst tearing up the NYG D out of my head. If those Seatt;e QB’s can do it, I think Fitzpatrick can.

Pit 28, Jax 10 – Believe me, I’ve seen plenty of bad offenses go into Heiz field over the years. I don’t see the Jags scoring more than 10-13.

Was 23, Phi 17 – All right, I’m sick of waiting for the Eagles to show up. I believe in Shananhan after a bye.

Bal 27, Hou 23 – I think Houston will figure a way to keep it close – but lose, of course.

NE 31, Dal 27 – Speaking of keeping it close…. And then losing….we have Tony Romo! Dallas will be within 4 down the stretch – will he lead the Cowboys to a TD and the win, or fumble, or throw the pick six? You know it’s one of those 3.

NO 23, TB 20 – I just don’t think the Saints are the same team outdoors. And the Bucs need to show something as a bounce back after the debacle in SF.

Chi 24, Min 13 – The Bears are desperate; they have a good enough defense to shut down a one-dimensional offense in the Vikings, and they are at home. Are you telling me that Donovan McNabb will lead this team to victory?

NYJ 30, Mia 13 – Matt Moore on the road, against a Jets team returing home after a 3 game road trip?

Best bets: 15 of them. Last week: 8-5-1; overall: 46-28-6
Car +3.5
Ind +6.5
Det -4
SF/Det over 45.5
GB -14
Buf +3
Buf/NYG over 50
Pit -12.5
Was +3
Phi/Was under 47
Hou +7
TB +6.5
NO/TB under 49.5
Chi -2
NYJ -6.5

Week 5

We continue this week:

KC +2.5
Phi -2.5
Jax -2.5
NYG -9.5
NYJ +9

Vietnam Notes

We just had a week long holiday here in China - so we got out of the country and went to Vietnam. We spent 3 days in Saigon (now called Ho Chi Minh City, or HCMC) and then 4 days at a beach town called Nha Trang.

Some completely random notes on the trip that may be of interest:

1. I know it's a sample size of 1, but our tour guide in Saigon was very complementary of Americans and disliked the people from the North. Yeah, I guess it is the spoils of war and all - the North "reunified" the country, and they are in the seat of government - but she talked openly of how the government and the "North" took everything over commerce-wise from Saigon in the past 10-20 years, and no one likes it. I guess I'm shocked that she was so open about it, and from her impression, the South part of Vietnam is still very much pro-American.

2. Went to the Cu Chi tunnels one day - that was interesting. The main attraction are the network of tunnels that the Viet Cong built underground. Freddie, Warren and I went in one and traveled about 40 meters - Freddie complained about them being too small. Warren was fine; he stands just under 4 feet. I was on my hands and knees the whole way.

.

And they say they have been enlarged for the tourists.

Of course, there were some disturbing images. There was a display of the man-made traps that the Viet cong built in the jungle. The picture here was the backdrop from the display. That was disturbing


3. A lot of French influence in Saigon. Here is a picture of the main Saigon post office - designed by a French architect. It was undisturbed during the war.

4. Tons - and tons - of motorbikes all over the place. Tons.

5. We also took a tour of the War Museum - yes, the propaganda was in full force there. There was a room called "Historical Truths". In it, charts outlined the American support for the "puppet" government in Sotuh Vietnam from 1954-75. There was a wing solely dedicated to the damage caused by Agent Orange. (The room was orange, by the way). And there were a few American tanks outside on display.

6. The beach town, Nha Trang, was unique. One of the attractions was a resort island called VinPearl. It is kind of like HersheyPark, Sea World, and Chuck E Cheese's all rolled into one, contained in a 5-star luxury resort.

We went on a Wednesday in what is the offseason. The admission fee was about $18 each. The park was open; there were maybe 50 people - maybe - in the whole park. The boys went on water slides for 2 hours and went to the wave pool for another 1 1/2 hours. No lines, no crowds. Just then it started to pour; there was an attraction called "Indoor Games"; in there were bumper cars, a kids play area, and 30 or so video games. All were free.

The play area had about 25% of the safety features of a normal Burger King play area. A sign was present saying the park had no liability for any "severy injuries or fatalities caused by this area". I did not doubt for one second that there mayhave been a fatality there in the past.

The kids corner also had a room for toddlers, with those kids' cars, whiteboards, and toddler beds (for napping). About half the beds had dirty sheets on them.

I'm still in amazement on how this place is still open. Oh - the picture we took is from a cable car that you must take to get to the island. The cable car was built too low; now cruise ships can not come in and dock in the city. This resort apparently has not made many friends in the town.

NFL Week 5: MGM Grand

It's bye week for the Browns after laying a stink bomb last week vs. the Titans. 60 passes for Colt for 350 yards - 60! - breaking the franchise record. We dominated time of possession, but trading FGs for TDs early, and key defensive breakdowns bring us to 2-2 at the break.

Talking about breaks, the one Vegas casino that I take a relative break in is the MGM grand. Many years, we have a dinner at this casino, and we spend the hours before and after the dinner gambling at that casino. Most of the time, I don't gamble as much as other casinos. I hate the layout and the warehouse-like feel of the place. It's impossible to find an afforable craps game - I think there are more craps tables at the Monte Carlo than the MGM.

The dealers are excellent, but the limits are just too high. I just don't want to put in a long session on a Saturday night at the MGM. The one exception, of course, is if they bring back the "Card Sharks" game.....then maybe I will ask for the limits to be raised to $100.....

I've played BJ there for a limited bankroll; played higher-limit Pai Gow Poker ($50) for little risk - but nothing major. It's a nice place for taking a breather, for people watching (especially the people in this group), for light sports wagering - and not much more. A bye week during a typical Vegas trip.

On to the games:

Phi 31, Buf 24. OK, one last game to think that the Eagles will turn it around. And how good are the Bills, really? They beat an imploding KC team, won in a shootout vs. the Raiders, beat the Pats, but lost to the Bengals. So if they play a team with any semblance of defense, they will lose.

Pit 24, Ten 17. I think the Steelers are out to prove something here.

NYG 31, Sea 10. Seattle, on the road, in a 1pm game.....vs the Giants with a good pash rush. Hmmmmmm......Seems too obvious.

Min 20, Az 17. Two teams that can't close. No idea here - except that there will be a lot of mistakes.

Jax 23, Cin 13. Gut feeling - Jax's offense is slowly getting better with Gabbard, and Cincy's offense hasn't done much.

KC 24, Ind 17. I think Painter comes a bit back to earth here for this game.

Car 27, NO 24. All right, yes, I am a sucker for the Panthers.

Hou 27, Oak 24. This one should be decided by a field goal.

SF 24, TB 13. I don't think Tampa is all that good. They can't score if they play a semi-tough defense.

SD 30, Den 23. Denver's defense is the worst in the league. The question is - will the Chargers play down to the competition, again?

NE 30, NYJ 27. The Jets are struggling on offense - and that's fine here, since the Pats have no defense! I think this will be a shootout, and the Jets will stop the Pats just enough to make it close.

GB 30, Atl 28. Atlanta's stand here. They have got to show something here to give them confidence going forward.

Det 28, Chi 16. I think the Lions will come out firing immediately and get a huge lead on the Bears right away.

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 11-6; overall: 38-23-5

Phi -3
Pit -3
NYG -10
Az/Min under 45
Jax -1
KC +2
Car +6.5
SF -3
SD -3.5
Den/SD over 45.5
NYJ +7
NYJ/NE over 51
Atl +5.5
Det -5

Week 4

This week's picks:

NO -6.5
NE -4
Arz pk
SD -7
Ind +10

Next stop: Vietnam

Tomorrow we are leaving for vacation (yes, another week-long Chinese holiday week); we are heading to Vietnam. 3 days in Saigon, and then 3 more in Nha Trang, a beach town.

We already have some tours lined up in Saigon - we will be seeing the Cu Chi tunnels, going to the War Museum, and some other city sightseeing. I don't think the tunnels will faze me too much - it will be interesting to see the network of tunnels that they built during the war. However, the museum may be too much. Most of the reviews that we've seen about the museum say that they are incredibly biased. I'll see how long I can stay in there before walking out.

And then, of course, Sunday night at Midnight, I will be on my slingbox watching the kickoff of the Browns game in the hotel. Is this what we envisioned as a future life in Vietnam 40 years after the war? We are fighting so that Americans can watch the NFL whenever, whereever they wanted in Vietnam?

NFL Week 4: Oneida Casino

Well, the Browns are 2-1....and I really have no idea what to expect from this team. Are they good? (not in a Packers-good kid of way, but maybe Falcons, Eagles, or (dare I say) Steelers way - average to slightly better-than-average?) Or are they lucky and not very good at all? Yes, they have only beaten the Colts and Dolphins....but look what happened when Pittsburgh came to Indy. No one is putting the Steelers 20th in the power rankings.....

Anyway, I don't know what to expect from this team. We're 2-1 for the first time since - 2002. 9 years ago. We are veering a bit from our comfort zone here. And if somehow we can win vs. Tennessee, that means we are 3-1 at the break. I'm not confident, however; Chris Johnson has got to get untracked at some point and our run D is not good.

Speaking of moving out of the comfort zone, every young engineer in Tissue Towel that cared any bit about gambling had a trip to the Oneida casino in Green Bay. I still remember my first trip there fairly well. (And no - surprisingly, it was not with a fellow engineer that had multiple projects in Green Bay at the time...his name was Don).

I went with two other older engineeers in 1998 - it was a Monday night during football season. The Packers were not on. We went to one of the multiple $5 blackjack tables - all the $3 tables were full - and I sat down with $20.

I was not comfortable. It was not Vegas, and it was not my hometown Argosy. Were the rules different? (no) The players? (yes) The drinks? (no alcohol).

My $20 lasted 1 1/2 hours. My two fellow co-workers, who both busted out after about 15 minutes, were amazed. How in the hell did I make it last that long?

I think I have made at least 10 trips there during my time in Tissue Towel. The atmosphere at the casino would make Steve, Layup, Wiz, and others crazy. The age limit is 18 - so 18 year old are playing at the table with me. Let's just say the quality of play sucked. And since the age limit was 18, no alcohol was server. A bunch of high school seniors, drinking Mountain Dew and playing blackjack with me. That's Oneida.

On to the games!

Chi 23, Car 13. Back and forth on this one. I don't think Carolina has played a good defense yet this year.

Stl 23, Was 20, OT. A pure letdown pick after the Skins loss (but cover) on Monday night.

Phi 24, SF 16. I can't figure out the Eagles just yet.

Min 24, KC 20. I think Peterson will get the carries he dserves in the 4th quarter to seal it.

NO 26, Jax 13. With Gabbert, I think the Jags are one of the 3 or 4 worst teams in the league. And the Saints realize they can't slip up and fall to 2-2.

Hou 31, Pit 23. I know, I know, every year I say that BOTH Baltimore and Pittsburgh can't be good. I was wrong last year. I don't think I am wrong in 2011. Pittsbrugh can't run, and they can't stop a pass rush. A one-dimensional team can get to 8 or 9 wins, but not much more.

Dal 24, Det 20. Gees, if the Lions win THIS one, when is the letdown ever going to come?

Buf 20, Cin 17. The Bengals have a defense - but their offense won't be able to score enough.

Sea 26, Atl 20. Maybe these Falcons are not as good as advertised. (And that would make Browns fans extremely happy, as we own their #1 draft pick next year).

Az 27, NYG 20. Letdown, plus Fitzgerald vs. the beat up Giants secondary.

GB 28, Den 20. What's the motivation here for the Packers to go all out for this game?

SD 30, Mia 13. I think last week was the last straw for Sparano - the players are giving up.

NE 34, Oak 23. The Pats after a loss? I wouldn't want to be this team. And if the Pats lose? A lot of reevaluation will be going on.

Bal 29, NYJ 20. This game will have a lot of passing yards, and therefore a lot of scoring.

Tam 21, Ind 17. I can't see Tampa scoring enough to pull away.

Best bets: 17 of them. Last week: 9-8. Overall: 27-17-5.

Chi -6
Car/Chi under 42
Stl +2
NO -7
NO/Jax under 45
Hou -3.5
Pit/Hou over 45
Buf/Cin under 43.5
Sea +4
Atl/Sea over 38
Az +1
Den +12
SD -7
NE -4.5
Bal -3
NYJ/Bal over 42.5
Ind +10

Week 3

The picks for week 3:

Cin -2.5
Phi -6.5
NO -4
Ind +10.5
Was +4.5

Back to Civilization?

I was fortunate enough to spend this week in the US (in Cincinnati) for the company Modeling & Simulation meetings. I spent Sunday with Layup, watching the NFL games at BW-3's for 6 hours. Having breakfast, snack, and lunch at BW-3's right off the airplane did not do good things for my stomach. It did not take all that grease kindly.

Layup is a wonderful good luck charm when watching the games. If he goes to the bathroom, it's a guarantee that something good will happen to the games we wagered on. He missed 2 Tampa Bay TDs in the can, and missed 2 Dallas TDs in the afternoon. He was also taking a piss when Romo completed the long pass in overtime.

I am finding myself becoming more Chinese, bit by bit. Some examples:
- when paying by credit card, it is now a habit for me to hand the card over with 2 hands (a very Asian custom).
- I went to McDonald's; the bill was $5.27. I didn't have a $5 or $10 bill, so I handed him a $20 and a $1. He looked at me like I was on Mars. This is standard practice in China.
- He asked if this was for here or to go. I said "it is take away" - exactly the broken English that is used everywhere in China.

I got to see my parents on Monday and Janice's brother on Wednesday - where a fully loaded duffel bag full of clothes and other goodies were waiting.

I'm heading back home tonight - and probably will see sights like those in the picture above as soon as I get in. This picture is taken on the sidewalk on the street in front of our complex.

See the man by the tree? He has picked up his son by his armpits - and, yes, those are the kid's legs dangling in the air.

And yes, the kid's pants are pulled down to his knees. I hope the dad brought some sort of toilet paper.

NFL Week 3: Casino Royale

While we were reviewing the games this week, it was apparent quickly to Layup and I that there are several "trap" games on the schedule. Trap games are those where the superior team (on paper) should easily win - but the line is set at a place where everyone thinks it's too low. This usually happens when the favorite is the road team. Most analysts and bettors quickly look at the line, scoff at it - and jumps quickly on the favorite. By Sunday afternoon, it's clear it was a trap as the bettors lick their wounds.

I don't think there is a better definition of a "trap" casino than the infamous Casino Royale. Everyone know this place - right across the street from the Mirage, proudly advertising "$5 craps with 100 x odds!" - and on weekdays the limits could be even lower! They also have Blackjack switch!

More than once in Vegas, Layup and I have been bored - so we have the great idea to go to the Casino Royale. "C'mon", we say to each other. "How much trouble can we get into there? We'll roll the dice for a while - it's a $5 table! How much can we lose, $150??"

Two hours later, we struggle back into the daylight, absolutely beatne to a pulp. "What happened? 15x odds on the point of 8 sounds like a perfect idea!"

I think my career losses at the Royale are greater than losses at other, well known Vegas casinos, like the Luxor, Aladdin, TI, and Excalibur.

It was also the start of the Blackjack Switch love affair for our group. I remember one trip going, with Wiz, Layup, me, and maybe Jay. Layup was deathly ill (as usual) and sneezed and coughed all over the cards. He was sitting right next to Wiz - and Wiz was none too happy with this. Every cough made Wiz slug Layup in the arm, tellin ghim to get his "God damn saliva off of my cards". Of course, Wiz got sick later that week. *

* - maybe I have mis-remembered some (or all?) of the details. I'm sure I will be corrected in the comments.

Anyway, I think we are done with Casino Royale trips for the foreseeable future. How long can that casino, on a prime location on the strip, still be in business?

These are tough games this week - be very careful when wagering. Don't fall into the Royale traps.

NE 34, Buf 23. I'm too lazy to go against the convention wisdom for this game here. NE will be up by 10-17 all game, and Buffalo will score late to make it closer.

Cin 24, SF 13. The Bengals are an OK offensive team. The 49ers are not - and the Bengals defense is adequate.

Ten 23, Den 13. I was surprised to see the Titans stop the Ravens last week.

Det 20, Min 17. Casino Royale Game #1! Detroit has to come back to earth sometime, right?

NO 34, Hou 27. Who has Houston played? A shell shocked Colts team, and Miami at home. They have not been tested yet.

Phi 27, NYG 16. The eagles were moving the ball even with Kafka back there at QB.

Car 27, Jax 13. I think Cam keeps it going, although this could be Casino Royale Game #2.

NYJ 23, Oak 20. Casino Royale Game #3. This will go down to the wire and be decided by a field goal.

StL 24, Bal 20. Casino Royale Game #4. The Rams are desperate and at home - and won't self destruct like they did Monday night.

SD 31, KC 13. Not much to say here. The Chiefs offense could be the equivalent of the 1999-2000 Browns offense.

GB 20, Chi 19. Casino Royale Game #5. Should be a lot closer than people think.

Arz 20, Sea 17. Casino Royale Game #6. Seattle was playing a desperate Pittsburgh team last week - now they are at home facing a weak Arizona defense.

Atl 20, TB 16. I just don;t like Tampa's M.O. of falling way behind early.

Pit 24, Ind 20. Casino Royale Game #7. Indy is improving since thir world was rocked before the season started. They still have offensive weapons - Addai, Wayne, Clark. I'm not predicting a Colts win, but I think it will be close.

Dal 24, Was 23. Dallas just is not that good.

Best bets: 17 of them. Last week: 9-4-3; overall: 18-9-5.

NE -7
Cin -2.5
Den/Ten under 42.5
Det/Min under 45
NO -4
Hou/NO over 51.5
Phi -8
Car -3
StL +4
SD -14.5
Chi +4
GB/Chi under 45.5
Az/Sea under 43
Atl +1.5
Atl/TB under 46
Ind +10
Was +4.5

This week

The picks this week:

NO -6.5
Jax +9
TB +3
Dal -3
Atl +2.5

NFL Week 2: Argosy Casino

This week, the Browns go to Indiana to play in a new, pristine stadium that has been built in the last 2 years. The old stadium was serviceable, but it doesn't have all the amenities and space that the new stadium has. However, the old stadium really had charm, noise and character; the new stadium is anitseptic.

Hey wait, I'm not talking about the RCA Dome and Lucas Oil Field - I'm talking about the old Argosy Casino and the new Hollywood Casino!

The old Argosy - wow, I have a lot of memories from there. A temporary casino in Lawrenceburg opened in 1996, I believe. When I was working for TASC, a bunch of us from Dayton amde a road trip down there. I was still playing blackjack 80% of the time - and was at a $5 table. I put $10 in the circle - big money! - and they were about to deal the cards when a co-worker of mine butted in and put 5 red chips of his in my circle.

"Hey! What the hell are you doing?" I blurted.
"What? I'm piggybacking"
"What does that mean? You're messing things up!!"

I got dealt and ace, then a king. Blackjack. I still was pissed at him.

Layup and I would go there at least once a year, blaring Annie Lennox from the radio as we drove down the lonely stretch of I-275 at 9 at night.
Don and I would secretly root for a rain out if we were playing in Kentucky so that we could sneak over to Lawrenceburg instead.
I successfully convinced Janice we should go for a Argosy run for my birthday in January, 2001....so we spent 3 hours at a smoky craps table......(while she was 8 months pregnant).
When I worked at Winton Hill, in the west side of Cincinnati, I actually snuck over there for "lunch" one day - left work at 11, got back around 1:30. Yes, I was by myself. Why do you ask?

And then, the intimacy, the magic, the memories are all gone. The Argosy was replaced in 2009 with the monstrosity that is the Hollywood Casino. It's huge, impersonal, and it frankly sucks. I don't win there. The atmosphere is terrible. The dealers are all new and horrid. I will purposely drive 20-30 minutes out of the way to gamble at one of the other casinos.

It's what is happening to all the NFL stadiums now (and, to an extent, all new stadiums). The character, intimacy, and feel is gone. Sports Guy hsa wrote about this - the home field advantage is less nowadays just because of the structure of the new stadiums - they don't give the advantage to the home team like they used to.

Anyway - the Browns going to Indy, and their new stadium, reminded me of Argosy for this reason...I know it's a tenuous link. Dad is actually going to the game on Sunday - I'll report what he says about the atmosphere.

On to the games: (and there's no way in hell I'm predicting anything about this Browns team)

Buf 24, Oak 17. I still am trying to figure out each of these teams.

Was 27, Az 17. My goodness, the Cardinals' secondary is horrid. Grossman and the Skins will light them up.

Bal 24, Ten 21. A classic letdown game for the Ravens.

Pit 28, Sea 10. The Seahawks are in the bottom 5 of the league. The Steelers should take their frustrations out on them.

NYJ 20, Jax 17. I refuse to believe the Jets are championship caliber.

NO 31, Chi 17. The Saints are a bit desperate - they won't go 0-2.

TB 23, Min 20. Another desperation game - this time for the Bucs.

GB 30, Car 24. I do believe that the Panthers will be able to move the ball on the Pack. They won't win, but maybe Cam is for real - at least until defensive coordinators figure him out.

Det 24, KC 14. Alarm bells! This one seems too easy.

Dal 23, SF 16. I have to thinkn that Garrett will get this team fired up after their loss on Monday. They can't afford to go 0-2 (and 2 games behind the Skins?!?!?)

NE 31, SD 27. An old fashioned shootout at Jack Murphy. Where is Charlie Jones and Todd Christensen when you need them?

Cin 20, Den 16. Not exactly a vote in the Bengals, but against the Broncos.

Mia 24, Hou 20. Another classic trap/letdown game for the Texans. They threw everything they had into week 1 vs. the Colts. A letdown is impossible to avoid.

Atl 27, Phi 24. Another desperation game - this time for Atlanta.

NYG 20, StL 13. These offenses are pretty putrid.

Best bets: 16 of them. Last week: 9-5-2 (based on the lines I listed).
Buf -3
Was -3
Bal/Ten over 38
Pit -14
Jax +8.5
NO -6.5
TB +2.5
Car +10
GB/Car over 45.5
Det -7.5
KC/Det under 44.5
Dal -3
Cin +3
Mia +3
Atl +2
Stl/NYG under 44

Off we go!

Here are F&J's week 1 SuperContest picks. Lord help us!
The entire field's picks can be found here.

TB -1.5
Min +8.5
Arz -7
NE -7
Den -3

NFL Week 1: Palace Station

Here we are again! The opening week of the NFL season. The preseason is interminable as the anticipation for the opening week begins. Next thing we know, it will be week 6 with 1/3 of the season already gone.

I love the idea of tying each week to a Casino that I have visited! So, for week 1, of course, we will review the first casino I gambled at – the wonderful Palace Station! Everyone remembers their first Vegas trip – the buildup is tremendous, the plane is full of energy, the shuttle bus ride from the airport contains 32 overweight middle-aged women hoping to hit it big at slots, and the bus driver reciting lame puns about “Lost Wages” (yes, that’s an indelible memory)….

… and the next thing you know, it’s day 2 of the trip and you are down $200. (which was a HUGE amount of money for me in 1994!)

That is very much like week 1 of the NFL season – everyone is giddy, even Chris Berman seems funny – and then your favorite team lays an egg. By Monday, you are wondering “what the hell happened to my team/picks/fantasy team?” The Monday/Tuesday after week 1 is usually such a letdown.

Let’s hope the afterglow of week 1 is better than the final day of my first Vegas trip – where I had to resort to playing BINGO at Palace Station (I think I won a pot worth $7.75) and I eventually got carded while playing the nickel slots.

Onward to the picks!

GB 23, NO 20 – yes, a cop out pick. I do believe the Saints will be better this year. We will see how the rookie Ingram does.

Bal 27, Pit 17 – I do believe in the power of desperation. If a team is desperate, they will throw everything out there in order to win that game. It’s hard to think of week 1 as desperation, but if the Ravens lose – at home – they will be 1 down to the Steelers and they still have to go to Pit. Sports Guy’s podcast threw this idea out, and it makes sense. I think the Ravens will do anything to win this game.

TB 26, Det 20 – I like Josh Freeman, and I don’t trust the Lions (do they have a RB?) yet.

Atl 23, Chi 20 – who knows. I’m afraid of the Falcons outdoors. Cutler is good for some good games, and the Falcons don’t have a great defensive team.

KC 17, Buf 16 – Tyler Palko is in. Wow. Do they really deserve to be a heavy favorite here?

Hou 27, Ind 17 – I’m staying away from each of these until we find out more from each team.

Phi 20, StL 19 – The Eagles’ O-line sucks. I would be scared if you have Vick on your fantasy team.

Ten 27, Jax 17 – I’ve seen the Luke McCown show before – 5 years ago. I don’t think he has gotten much better from his days when I proclaimed for him to be the answer in Cleveland.

Was 27, NYG 24 – Grossman is starting, and the Giants have no secondary. This seems like a good opportunity for Grossman to have a nice start to the season before a real defense comes along.

Az 27, Car 13- - I just see the Panthers as clearly the worst team in football.

SF 20, Sea 16 – no idea here. Who’s starting for the Niners?

SD 24, Min 20 – look here now. Minnesota is not that bad. They have the best RB in football. McNabb is adequate – and he’s much better than what Favre game him last year. I think this will be a close game.

Dal 23, NYJ 17 - I think Sanchez is a mediocre quarterback – and look who the Dallas D coordinator is – Rob Ryan, our D coordinator last year. Rob developed game plans against Brady, Brees and Sanchez last year – and we went 2-0-1 against them. * I think Sanchez will look a little lost at times out there.

NE 30, Mia 16 – I just don’t see how NE is threatened in this game.

Den 30, Oak 20 – I like Kyle Orton. I think he’s at least an average quarterback. And I the coach is definitely an upgrade.

Best Bets of the week:
Bal -1
Pit/Bal over 36
TB -1.5
Buf +6
Buf/KC under 40
StL +4.5
Ten +2
Ten/Jax over 37
Was +3
Was/NYG over 37.5
Az -7
Min +8.5
Dal +4.5
NE -7
Den -3
Oak/Den over 40


*we beat the Pats and the Saints last year – and if we chose to, we could have tied the Jets. However, Mangini gambled for the win instead of settling for the sure tie (a decision I agreed with) , but lost. So I count this as a tie in my book.