Veepstakes, part 2!

Now let's review the VP choices on the Republican side. I am trying to see if I can clear my schedule to head to Dayton on Friday to see McCain unveil his VP pick for the first time publicly.

However, I'm becoming more and more convinced that this election - in general - is not about McCain and what he can promise/say/do. The election will ultimately be decided by the Hillary Clinton primary voters. Will they come home - come back home to the Democratic party? Or will they stay home and not voter out of anger/apathy/sickness on Election Day? That is the #1 question for the next 3 months.

(I'm wathcing Hillary's speech now - so far, an absolute bore, except for one zinger on Bush/McCain. "It makes sense that they have their convention in the Twin Cities! They're practically twins!" I didn't do it justice here, but that line is so far the only highlight.)

Anyway, can McCain pick a VP that may change Hillary Clinton voter dynamic - and exacerbate the split in the Democratic party? Or will he choose a VP that may influence one or two key states in an election that may be excrucriatingly close? Eric's odds:

Tim Pawlenty (MN): 5-1. A Republican governor of a somewhat blue state. I'm not sure he himself can overcome the R label and turn Minnesota from blue to red. He is a social conservative, semi-young, and telegenic, very much like Bayh. A national unknown, however. McCain would choose him if- and only if - he'd guarantee Minnesota for McCain. And I don't think he can.

Joe Lieberman (I-CT): 6-1. Wow. This would turn the race on its end. However - ask yourself this: does McCain feel he is behind enough to take this sort of a risk? If McCain was 8-10 points down (think Dole, 96), this pick would make sense. I don't think he needs to take this risk.

Rob Portman (OH): 20-1. Bush's budget director, and a former congressman from Ohio (I think from Don's district)! Very popular in SW Ohio, but that doesn't mean he can carry the state. Too unknown, no benefits.

Mike Huckabee (AR): 10-1. He's making a strong move as we come to the home stretch! What a way to thank your pirmary "opponent" (if you can call him that) by tag-teaming with McCain against Romney. And with McCain's apparent weakness on economics, this pick could shore up the blue collar vote that usually would be Democratic but don't like Obama.

But - ugh. A lot of downsides, especially to the socially moderate/progressive.

Meg Whitman (CA): 20-1. The former eBay chairwoman. I know nothing about her, but she has been mentioned as a possible candidate to shore up the domestic program of McCain. And the word "eBay" may help with the age issue for McCain. But still - a political novice? (and that's being nice?)

Tom Ridge (PA): 30-1. We have an inside source on this blog that has heard firsthand that Ridge will not be picked. Should we believe him?

Mitt Romney (MA): 3-1. I guess, by process of elimination, the front runner. The political calculation positives are pretty strong: the Mormon issue may affect him negatively in some states, but it is a strong positive in states like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, all battleground states that McCain needs. The Romney name is also popular in Michigan, and may turn the dial toward McCain a few points.....

but there's something about him I don't like. Too smooth, too polished, too telegenic. He seems like a car salesman. And that's a turnoff.

The Field: 1-1. I am more and more convinced McCain will choose somebody not on the above list. Newt Gingrich? Bobby Jindial (LA)? John Kasich (OH)? Carly Fiorina (Hewlett Packard)? Michael Steele (MD)?
There's a darkhorse out there somewhere. Where?

Management Question #16

So I have a little dilemma here at the office. We have a local guy who lives out of his van that parks in our parking lot at night. He has a nice big van that he lives in and a small red car that he drives. Everyday at 6:00pm, he pulls into our parking lot and parks both vehicles near the back portion of our building. He is usually very good about moving both vehicles by 7:00am. But this morning his red car was still parked in our parking lot. So I ended up driving next to his van (parked right outside of our parking lot) and honked the horn for a little bit hoping that he would wake up. No go. So the question is do I go out there and knock on the van door and ask him to move his vehicle? I don't want him to think that I've become soft, but at the same time I don't want him to get pissed at us and then vandalize our building after hours.

My staff really doesn't care and actually feeds this guy from time to time, which pisses me off. The homeless are like seagulls. You feed them once and they swarm you and won't go away. My staff is very soft. During last Thanksgiving, another homeless man built an amazing cardboard house out by our dumpster. He completed it on Wednesday afternoon right before Thanksgiving, complete with a couple of matresses and a random couch. I was going to go out there to take it down, but my staff stopped me since it was right before Thanksgiving. I gave in then and allowed it to stay up until Monday, and now I'm probably the laughing stock of the homeless community.

So do I make a point and get his car towed this morning?

Aaaah! Too Much Information!

To kick off our convention coverage, I'd like to share what Bob Schieffer said in his closing remarks on "Face the Nation" this past Sunday.

Schieffer was reminiscing about covering conventions in the past, and he remarked that this would be "his 11th Democratic convention" that he covered - and he has also covered 10 Republican conventions so far.

"The first Democratic convention I covered was the convention in Chicago in 1968, which was memorable for me. It was memorable not because of the proceedings on the convention floor, but rather because 9 months after the day the convention started, my first daughter was born."

Aaah! Aaah! My ears! My eyes! The forced vision of Bob Schieffer having sex is quite a wake up call to my system.........next thing you know, Madeleine Albright will mention that August 28, 2008, is the 60th anniversary of the day she took a young Lloyd Bentsen behind the Capitol steps and (ed- this post has been terminated. )

Let's play veepstakes!

Today's game: the Democrats. Who will Obama pick as his VP choice?

Before we start, let's give some credit to McCain for finding a message that seems to be working. Tying Obama to random celebrities - Paris, Britney, etc. - is pure genius. It plays directly to the middle-aged white voter who still is unsure about Obama, and puts into words the hesitation. It also occured right after the time Obama was on his Europe trip and made a speech in Germany in front of 200,000 people.

One piece of advice my Dad gave me - if you want to attack something that seems unassailable, attack their strengths. Example: Burger King in the 80s. They wanted to attack McDonalds. How? They were the king - burgers fast and fresh. How do you attack them in an ad?

Answer: By attacking the fact they were fast. Why were they fast? Because they made the burger one way. You can't get it any other way. But what if you wanted a burger...your way? And a slogan was born.

McCain is doing exactly that. Obama is very popular - almost too popualr. He's attacking that image effectively. And (by chance!) where is Obama giving his acceptance speech next Thursday? Why, at Mile High Stadium in front of 75,000 people! This just adds to the celebrity/rock star label that McCain has given him. Obama has got to be careful not to provide more ammunition for that image.

Anyway, what is the end result of that ad campaign? An unquestioned tightening of the race - one poll shows McCain up 5 right now - and in the overall electoral vote count, McCain is seen to be ahead, 274-264.

There is no question that we are at the high point in McCain's campaign right now (so far?). All the toss up states are leaning McCain's way right now - Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, and so on. The good news for Obama is that it is very hard to see how Obama loses any more states. If Michigan and/or Pennsylvania start to turn to McCain, this thing could turn into a rout.

But for now, Obama should have a floor of 264 votes. The big question he needs to answer - given the current themes of the campaign and the current electoral map, can a VP pick influence either?

Some choices, with Eric's proposed odds:

1. Tim Kaine (VA): 10-1. Virginia's popular governor has been listed as a possibilitiy. Could this pick swing Virginia back to the Democrats? However - and I feel bad for saying this - I can't believe that America would elect a VP with that haircut. I'm sorry -some images do matter.

2. Joe Biden (DE): 4-1. Picking Biden would help close the "experience" issue Obama may have - Biden has 30+ years of experinece in the Senate and extensive foriegn policy credentials. However, he is the consummate Washington insider - would that hinder Obama's message of change?

One other thing - there was a presidential candidate that didn't have a lot of foreign policy items on his resume. He chose a VP who had a lot of congressional experience, various foreign policy responsibilities, and was seen as a sharp debater/good speaker.

It's not hard to draw parellels between Biden and Cheney.

3. Kathleen Sebelius (KS): 20-1. The chic rumor going around now - the Kansas governor would help with the female vote and would add to the "change" campaign them. And Sebelius is a conservative Democrat, and certainly can not be confused as a liberal. But would it deliver Kansas? The 5 electoral votes - with the current map - would make the election projected to be 269-269. (And, at this time, a tie goes to the House, which assuredly should remain Democratic).

And do we really know anything about her? What vetting is going on right now? A risky pick.

4. Dianne Feinstein (CA): 7-1. I'm surprised she's not talked about more often. The more moderate of the California senators, Feinstien has experience in Congress (16 years in the Senate) and has served on foreign policy committees, I think. She was a Clinton ally, so that may help mend some bridges. She is Jewish, but that issue should be put to rest given Lieberman's run in 2000 (and it may help in Florida). Not a bad pick.

5. Hillary Clinton (NY): 40-1. What, is Obama insane?

6. Evan Bayh (IN): 3-1. I think this is the smart pick. Bayh is the conservative senator from Indiana, and the Bayh name is powerful in that state. I would have to predict that the 11 electoral votes would swing toward Obama - meaning McCain would need another state to win. He has almost 10 years of experince in the Senate, and serves on the Armed Forces committee; he is 53 years old but looks younger, so can effectively look the part of "change".

7. The Field: 2-1. There's always a surprise lurking around the corner. As I was walking the dog, I tried to think about the last several VP picks and whether they were in the running for a VP and talked about before the announcement:

84: Ferraro: a complete surprise, and not a good choice. She did not deliver her home state.

88: Quayle (R): another complete surprise

88: Bentsen (D): I think he was mentioned on a short list as a possible balance for the northereastern Dukakis

92: Gore: yes, he was mentioned. Gore ran for President 4 years before!

96: Kemp: another surprise, not in name (since many knew him) but was not talked about as a VP candidate.

00: Cheney (R): medium surprise. He led the VP search committee - and then came back to Bush and said "nope, no qualified candidates out there....except moi!"

00: Liebermann (D): boy, it seems weird now putting a "D" next to his name! I think this was a small surprise.

04: Edwards: no surprise here.

So about half the time the pick comes out of left field.....will it happen again this week?

I say no - I say the pick is Evan Bayh. Your thoughts?

Seriously?!?!

Trampoline is a SPORT?

How does this make the Olympics and Softball is getting the axe?

This is stupid! Which Canadian was better? WHO CARES!

One more golf tournament

The last individual event for the 2008 season is upon us tomorrow. Don, Craig and I will be playing in the Cincinnati Met Mid-Am, the amateur championship for those 25 and older. Miraculously, I finished 4th last year.

Lines for tomorrow's first round action (the final 18 are on Tuesday):

Eric favored by 1 over Don
(this was a pickem until Saturday's head to head matchup)

Craig favored by 5.5 over Don

Craig favored by 4.5 over Eric

Three person special: Don, Craig and Eric's score:
Over / under set at 239.5

Results should be posted at gcga.org later in the day Monday.


And what else is tomorrow night? The Browns on Monday Night Football! I haven't posted too much on here about the Browns yet because I don't know what to say. I am nervously optimistic about this season. We are talented enough to go 11-5 or so, but if a couple of things go wrong, this could snowball into a 6-10 season.

We have so many games this year that I could see us winning or losing even if we play well:
- home vs Dallas
- both Pittsburgh games
- at Washington
- home vs NY Giants
- home vs Indianapolis
- at Tennessee
- at Jacskonville
- at Philadephia

and I don't think we are good enough (yet) to assume 4-0 vs Baltimore and Cincinnati.

Bottom line: check back with me on Sept 13. While the first game vs. Dallas is important - and I will be elated if we win and disappointed if we lose - the second game at home vs Pittsburgh is the big big big test.

If we win, expect 3 days of jubliant posts on this board.
If we lose, I will be distraught.

These posts will keep coming....

Until we agree that this blog will officially endorse John McCain as president.

First, we found out that John McCain is a avid craps player.

Now, we find out that ABBA and Neil Diamond make it into McCain's Top 10 Songs list.

Gees, people, what more do we need?

Sunday afternoon ramblings

Some random followups on golf and the olympics:

1. Finished third in the club championship. I thought I was in the lead after the first round until a 65-year old greenskeeper shot 72 after I left the clubhouse.
So I started 5 back, got to within 3, and then boarded the bogey train for a while and finished third.

The 65-year-old? He finished 9-6-9 on 16, 17, and 18 (par 4-4-5) and finished behind me. Tough, tough, tough to watch it all unfold. I was speechless.

2. Then played at the Ohio Publinx at Cook's Creek. The driver has been my worrisome club all year, so what do I do? I hit 11 of 14 fairways....and shoot 85. Could not hit any irons, and I was off with my pitches. The greens were rock hard, and I had trouble adjusting.

The 2nd round brought the complete opposite - through 11 holes, I hit 4 fairways, but made everything. I had 14 putts through 11 holes and was even for the round.

Then I had a block, leading to a triple - and then couldn't find a swing. Finished 8 over. Ugh. The problem: I have no reliable "pressure" swing anymore - the swing you need just to get the ball out there. I used to have this 230-yard gentle fade that I could atuomatically hit under any situation. Not anymore. Ugh.
The putting was phenomenal - the shortest putt I missed was a downhill 20 footer. Everything inside that was in the hole.

I'm taking a break for a week - to flush the system.

3. This golf pool that Layup and I are in, however - this is starting to be an unhelathy obsession. This pool requires you to pick a golfer for each tournament, and you can only pick a golfer once all season. Out of 120 or so people, Layup and I are 2nd at this point, a mere $1900 back of first.

I feel like a pastor of a Church - my off days are Monday; on Tuesday, it's reasearch day; Wednesday involves a 30-45 minute phone call with Layup as we argue over the pick - and then the tournament starts Thursday.

Our pick this week is Retief Goosen - and the leader (and the person directly behind us) has Phil. Entering the 4th round, Goosen is one back of Phil.

4. Go Ben! If Goosen can't win, let's see the boy from Ostrander win his second major.

5. Olympics fever is in this house now. Two pieces of evidence:

a. I actually had Freddie and Warren watching Women's basketball yesterday - Mali vs New Zealand! They chose to root for the Kiwis and were dancing around the room when they made a 3 pointer.

b. For the opening day of men's basketball, I entered in a 6-team teaser:
Russia
Spain
Croatia
Lithuania
Germany
USA

6-for-6! Winner!

Yes, I am insane.

No More She-manny-gans

I'll be the first to say it - I loved the Manny Era in Boston. He was there for 7 1/2 years, and was a huge part of two World Series teams. Sure, he quit on the team in 2002 and 2006 and did some quirky things, but he always entertained you. Some of my favorite Manny moments:

- jacking a home run and standing at home plate with his arms raised long enough for a bird to land on his helmet

- high fiving a fan after making a catch (and doubling a runner off)

- taking a leak in the Green Monster bathroom while the game was going on

- coming out of said Green Monster holding a sign that read Manny being Manny

- cutting off Johnny Damon's throw in CF (to the SS) from about 12 feet away

- Dropping a routine flyball then after saying "Oh well there goes my Gold Glove. I guess I'll have to go for the Silver or Bronze."

- Going out to left field with a water bottle in his back pocket

- Manny on Jay Leno talking about his slide in the World Series vs Colorodo. Manny is talking about the play (as they are cueing up the highlight to show on the screen), and he says "Oh I was definitely safe, no doubt about it, look here Jay, look here. (they show the play), Oh I guess I was out.

- While rehabbing in Pawtucket (where he spent almost a MONTH, seriously what big leaguer wants to spend a month in AAA????) he slid into third base and somehow lost a huge diamond earring. The players and umps were all looking for his earring. He told them to not worry about finding it, it was "only" a $25,000 diamond.

- Running on the bases and always flipping his helmet off as if once he discarded the helmet he would turn into Vince Coleman on the bases.

Now having said ALL THAT... they had to move him, it was time. Somehow, it went from quirky and silly, to just boorish and selfish. He was just different this year, knocking a 62 year old RS Employee to the ground, punching Youkilis in the dugout, were signs that things in Mannyland were stranger than ever. Once he sat out the two games (against King Felix and Joba), that was it. He was really pissed that the Red Sox wouldn't tell him whether they would pick up his option (for $20 mil) in 2009, so he was threatening to shut it down. I actually think the Sox did very well to get Jason Bay back for Manny and two guys who were very expendable. BTW, what were the Marlins thinking? They could have had Manny for free and they passed? Strange.

I am sure that Manny will have a strong second half for LA, and I am sure that the Red Sox will be better off without Manny. I am also sure I'll miss watching him play every day.

Is Layup faster or slower than this?

Found this classic on You Tube. No, it is not in slow motion.

Ah, memories.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jem453SaSpU

Random Thoughts

Well, it's been a while - hello there! It's been crazy at work, and I am finally getting over the "Big D" I acquired from my trip to Mexico. Yesterday, I finally had my first solid bowel movement in about 10 days.

Some random thoughts:

1) First of all, if you haven't heard, Layup is fine after the earthquake in CA. I would say something calling him a wimp since he was scared over a measly 5.7 quake - but then, this spring in Ohio we felt a 3.1 quake and it was the lead story on our local news for 4 days with plenty of old women calling in "reporting" the quake. I love local news.

2) Mexico: it was very enjoyable to watch the home run derby in Spanish rather than put up with Mr. Blowhard, Chris Berman.

3) The Browns will take the field for a preseason game in 9 days. Wow. Football is almost here.

4) Why do I hate Jim Nantz? Well, this should be the only exhibit I need. Fourth quarter play, week 11, Cleveland - Pittsburgh. Watch and listen to the call. He just sucks the life out of any excitement on the field. Can you imagine if Dick Enberg was on the call? Gus Johnson? Joe Buck? Dick Stockton? Ian Eagle? Sam Rosen? All would be much much better than this.

What if Nantz called our gambling action in Vegas? He'd put us to sleep. If Gus was there, he'd be egging Kermit to get up and slug Wiz after doubling on 6....

5) Speaking of Sam Rosen, I still submit he is the most underrated play-by-play voice out there doing the NFL. He's on FOX, and there's no chance of him doing a Browns game this year. (The only two games that FOX would carry are week 1, when Dallas comes in - a game undoubtedly called by Joe "That's Outrageous" Buck and Mr. Cowboy himself, Troy Aikman), and the NYG game - but that's a MNF game). It's too bad. His call of the Seattle game last year was superb.

(that's the game no one else saw, since it was on at the same time as the NE-Ind game).

6) Coming soon: my opinion of each NFL head referee! A sneak preview: Ron Winter is not as bad as you think he is, while I cringe if Mike Carey is doing my game.

7) Golf week 08 starts Saturday, with the defense of my club championship crown and then the Ohio Publinx, this year at Cook's Creek. Monday's traditional practice round have all 4 participants confirmed, as Dad and I will square off against Steve and Kermit.

I feel like I'm playing the best golf of the year, which is not saying much at all. Expectations are low.

Oil

Ok, I promise that my next post will be something non political related. I don't have a good bathroom story, so I guess you all are stuck with this, but after reading Eric's and Laura's comments about gas I wanted to make some comments of my own.

First, I tend to agree with Laura and $4+ gas is actually good. I do agree that this does push people to conserve more (I carpool 3 days a week) and provides an incentive to the private sector to push for alternative fuels. Just today I saw "Go Nuclear" sign in someones yard in Dana Point. You wouldn't see that with $2 gas. The problem starts though with the thought that gas would stay around $4. It won't. Currently as of this morning, gas in Southern CA is $4.69. Why would anyone think that gas wouldn't be even higher in a couple of months. There is no indication that oil would go in the other direction with the weak dollar, Iran War on the horizon, and no drilling allowed.

When will it stop? When will enough be enough. You would be naive to think that gas would stay in the $4-$5 range. Carol and I are planning on gas being in the $7-$8 range since Congress and the President won't do anything. Just like Social Security and Health Care, I'm up for every option.

• Alaska Drilling- Let's go folks. What will it take for people who have never been to Alaska to say, "Let's go".
• Off shore Drilling- I had a nice chat with Richie last week and I asked him how his dad was doing. He chuckled and said that he is so pissed right now at Arnold because he won't drill off the coast of CA. Ha!
• Nuclear Plants- Why are people scared? Because of Chernobyl? Um, that nuclear plant was run by idiot Russians. We have one right on the ocean down the road from us and there are no complaints.
• Strengthen the dollar- We need a balanced budget to get the dollar stronger.
• Alternative fuels- Well I'm for it. I'm for tax breaks, government incentives, or whatever else is needed. I know that Arnold just gave some very large incentives to Tesla Motors who has a electric car with a 200 mile range.
• Conserve- Here is the problem though about conserving. California is thinking about raising the gas tax since consumption is down 3% and they are losing out on all of the revenue. Seriously? Really?
• Speculation- Leave it be. For people that have no idea on why it was created and how much it provides some normalcy to the market, just shut up.
• Taxes- Help me understand how taxing the Oil companies help us with this situation. If people can, then I would be for it, but it just seems to me that it is spiteful and serves no purpose.

Now, I would think that I'm the only one here that can truely bitch about gas prices and truth be told, my budget has not gone up for gas. I used to have an Infiniti that used premium gas which I got rid of last August. I now carpool with people from work, so despite gas prices increasing at a fast rate, I have held my budget the same. So it works for now, but jack prices up again to $6 and then we are going to be in some trouble.

Quick Comments

Obama came out today and stated that there is "little doubt we've moved into recession." Really Obama? As Eric pointed out to me several months back, there is an equation to figure out if we are in a recession or not. It is 2 qtrs of negative growth. Not an opinion.

Just imagine if I walked around my offices telling everyone that we won't hit our results, despite the results not being in yet. Not hitting the results would mean that nobody would get a raise. Sure would create a wonderful atmosphere.

Obama, you are not a political hack, you are a presidential candidate. I was actually thinking about voting for you, but comments like this indicate that you are nothing more than a typical politician playing into the fears of voters. And yes, the Republicans have done the same, but with different topics.

Good morning

With some conversation starting on gas prices and such, here is a great article in the Journal a couple of weeks ago on some very interesting economic topics. Enjoy.

Robert Mundell isn't in the habit of making fruitless policy recommendations, though some take a long time ripening. Nearly four decades passed between his early work on optimal currency areas and the birth of the euro in 1999 – the same year he received the Nobel Prize for economics.

So when Mr. Mundell says that rescinding the Bush tax cuts "would be devastating to the world economy," that oil prices are "not so far off track," that Asia needs its own multilateral currency, or that the ham sandwiches sitting before us could use some mustard, one is inclined to pay attention – and, except in the case of lunch, to think long term.

Back in America, there's an election going on. There's also been a spate of financial problems, not the least of which is a weak dollar. But Mr. Mundell says "the big issue economically . . . is what's going to happen to taxes."

Democratic nominee Barack Obama regularly professes disdain for the Bush tax cuts, suggesting that those growth-spurring measures may be scrapped. "If that happens," Mr. Mundell predicts, "the U.S. will go into a big recession, a nosedive."

One of the original "supply-side" economists, he has long preached the link between tax rates and economic growth. "It's a lethal thing to suddenly raise taxes," he explains. "This would be devastating to the world economy, to the United States, and it would be, I think, political suicide" in a general election.

Should taxes instead be cut again, I ask him, to stimulate the sluggish economy? Mr. Mundell replies that he favors a ceiling of 30% on marginal rates (the current top rate is 35%). He recounts how the past century experienced a titanic struggle over whether tax rates are too high or too low: from a 3% income tax in 1913; up to 60% during World War I; down to 25% before Congress and President Herbert Hoover raised taxes back to 60% in 1932 and "sealed the fate of our economy for a long, long time"; all the way up to 92.5% during World War II before falling in three steps, reaching 28% under President Ronald Reagan; and back to nearly 40% under Bill Clinton before George W. Bush lowered them to their current level.

In light of this fiscal roller coaster, Mr. Mundell says, "the most important thing that could be done with respect to tax rates now is to make the Bush tax cuts permanent. Eliminating that uncertainty would be more important than pushing for a further cut – in the income tax rates, anyway."

One tax that he would cut, to 25%, is the corporate tax rate. "It could be even lower," he says, "but I think it would be a big step to lower it to 25% . . . I made that proposal back in the 1970s."
A long-haired Mr. Mundell spent that decade not only arguing for the euro, but laying the intellectual groundwork for the Reagan tax-cut revolution. Mr. Mundell says those tax cuts remain "as important to the United States as the creation of the euro was to Europe – a fundamental change." Combined with Paul Volcker's tight-money policy at the Fed, which Mr. Mundell also championed, supply-side economics killed off stagflation.

Or at least it killed it off at the time. With prices again rising as growth slows, some economists are worried that stagflation could be making a comeback. Not Mr. Mundell – not yet.
He draws a comparison with the situation in 1979-1980. Start with the dollar price of oil, which he calls "one of the two most important prices in the world" (the other being the dollar-euro exchange rate, which we'll get to in a moment)."If you look at the price level since 1980," he begins, "oil prices would naturally double by the year 2000. So from $34 a barrel in 1980 to $68 a barrel. And then . . . because the inflation rate's about 3.5%, it would double again by 2020. So the natural price . . . would be something like $136 in 2020.
"Now, we [already] got to $130-something, but . . . I really think the price is going to settle down, probably below $100, if not below $90. What I'm saying is we're not so far off track."
American motorists still shocked by $4-a-gallon gasoline might think we're rather more off track than Mr. Mundell suggests. Bolstering his case, he immediately moves on to another commodity often invoked to demonstrate inflation: gold. "The price of gold in 1980 was $850 an ounce. And the price of gold today is about the same. It's astonishing," he says. "It's true, gold did go up" to more than $1,000 an ounce earlier this year, "but the public doesn't believe that there is inflation. If there was big inflation coming, then you'd see the price of gold going up to $1,500 an ounce very quickly, and that hasn't happened."

In any case, don't expect to hear Barack Obama or John McCain talk about the weak dollar's contributions to any problem. "As [journalist] Robert Novak once put it, it's like cleaning ladies who come in and say 'I don't do ironing.' [Politicians] say, 'I don't do exchange rates,'" Mr. Mundell chuckles. "They think they can only lose by talking about exchange rates, because they don't know enough about it, and it's hard to predict anyway, for anyone."
If Mr. Mundell had his way, there wouldn't be anything for politicians to say about exchange rates. They would be fixed – as they were under the Bretton Woods arrangement after World War II until 1971, when President Nixon took the U.S. off the postwar gold standard and effectively launched the era of floating exchange rates."It's a very poor and a dangerous system," Mr. Mundell says of the floating regime, "because it creates exaggerated swings in the exchange rate." Case in point is the dollar-euro rate. From a low of about 82 cents in 2000, Europe's common currency has risen fairly steadily and has been valued at more than $1.50 since late February, even breaking the $1.60 barrier once.

"What people have to realize is there's been a fundamental change in the way markets work in the past 20 years," Mr. Mundell says. "Now, exchange rates are driven not so much by trade but by capital accounts and capital movements, and the huge amount of liquidity that's sloshing around the world."

Central banks world-wide, he notes, are trying to reach an equilibrium between dollars and euros in their $6.5 trillion worth of foreign reserves. Roughly two-thirds of these reserves are kept in dollars now, so they have about $1 trillion left to move into euros.
"If you did a hundred billion dollars" annually, Mr. Mundell points out, "you'd need 10 years to build that up, and that amount of capital movement has a tremendous effect in keeping the euro overvalued. It's not good for Europe and . . . ultimately it would cause more inflation in the United States."

But this continuing shift doesn't mean that the dollar's status as the world's dominant currency is in danger, at least not in the short run. Countries like Iran may be pushing for the pricing of oil in another currency, "but it wouldn't happen unless Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states moved in that direction, and I don't see any way in which they would do this," Mr. Mundell says. "It would be very damaging to the relations between the United States and the Gulf countries. There's an implicit defense alliance between those, and that's what overrides as a top priority."
Nor is there a macroeconomic argument for demoting the dollar. "Remember, the growth prospects for the United States are probably stronger than that of Europe, because you've got continued and substantial population growth in the United States, and zero population growth in Europe," Mr. Mundell says. "Quite apart from the fact that the U.S. economy is innovating more rapidly, and the population is younger and not getting old as rapidly, so they pick up new technology faster. So I look upon the United States still as the main sparkplug of economic growth in the world."

As for the euro's overvalued status, he forecasts deflation in Europe, along with a slowdown and an end to its housing boom. The answer, he suggests, is for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to cooperate in putting a floor and a ceiling on both the euro and the dollar. "You have to grope" to the appropriate range, he maintains, but a good starting point would be to keep the euro between 90 cents and $1.30.

Even better, in his mind – and now we're really talking long term – would be to have a global currency. This could take the form of a new money or a dominant existing one to which all others are fixed – probably the dollar. "As Paul Volcker says," Mr. Mundell relates, "the global economy needs a global currency."

To get there, he proposes holding a new, Bretton Woods-type meeting in 2010 at the Shanghai World's Fair. Mr. Mundell, who has been spending "a lot of time" in China advising the government, says reviving an international system of fixed exchange rates would be a tremendous help to Beijing as it tries to fend off demands from U.S. and European politicians that it appreciate or float its currency.

Here, he recalls Washington's similar "bashing" of the Japanese yen in the 1980s, and its ultimately disastrous effects: "Japan got stuck with an overvalued currency for a decade, and suffered from a perpetual deflation in its housing market from 1990 until just a couple of years ago. And China doesn't want to have the same problem."

Another part of his solution is for Asian countries to form their own currency bloc. If they did so, he says, "it'd be comparable in size to the European and the American bloc. And then it would not be so much the question of . . . the U.S. and Europe bashing China" or other rising economies.
These three currency blocs, he predicts, would be large enough to weather wide swings in their exchange rates. But the swings would still do economic damage, so "the best thing you could do is to stabilize them, and that's where the global currency comes in."

Could it happen? Mr. Mundell allows that three decades may pass, but predicts that like the euro and the Reagan revolution before it, the global currency's time, too, will come. Any skeptics might want to review the last few decades before betting against him.

Random Thoughts

- The C C trade doesn't bother me too much. What else were we going to do? We are in last place, and it's most likely we weren't going to sign him anyway. Let's just hope that we obtained the outfield bat we so desperately need for this lineup. Having light hitters like Francisco, Gutierrez and such isn't going to cut it for the future.

- The Indians season may be over, but....15 days until training camp!

- Had another good craps in Iowa this past week, based on pressing up one unit. The strategy:
a. point with double odds
b. 6 and 8 for $12 each
c. first hit on the 6/8: same bet
d. second hit on the number: press up one unit to $18
e. third hit on the number: press two units to $30

And then keep the same bet and hope for the $35 payouts.

I also finally had a "double horn"; when I start winning, I throw a $5 horn high ace-deuce on the come out. I won the first on a 2 - paying $26; I then pressed it to $10. The roll came 3.

What does a horn-high ace-deuce for $10 pay on a 3? I finally found out! $54.

- My golf game is in such shambles that:
a. I needed to birdie 18 (and have Layup bogey it) just to tie Layup;
b. Random strangers are now offering me golf tips - and they are working!

- I need to stop snacking late at night. The actual thought in my head at 11:20 pm on Monday night:
1. "Hey! there's some Swedish fish left in the bag!"
2. "Ooooo....Burger King Zesty Onion Ring Sauce...."
3. "I wonder how it would taste if I dipped the Swedish Fish candy in that sauce....."

Next trial: Oreo cookies in Open Pit.

- I see that a song called "I kissed a Girl" is #1 on the charts. Is this a remake of the early 90's song? Does anyone remember that? I remember watching Beavis and Butthead comment on this video during the B&B heydays. It was being in Steve's basement, playing gin for hours watching "Beavis and Butthead" marathons. I think the episode with the "I Kissed A Girl" video was the same episode as Henry Rollins' "Liar". Also may have been a forgotten video featuring a woman with a gardening tool:

Beavis: " Is that a hoe?"
Butthead: "Yeah, but what is she carrying with her?"

Ah, memories.

Why I should listen to Rush more....

Rush Limbaugh, yesterday:

This month, just 9% say Congress is doing a good or excellent job. Most voters (52%) say Congress is doing a poor job, which ties the record high in that dubious category." Now, amidst all of this, with a 9% approval rating, an all-time low, the media template is still what? That the Democrats are going to pick up all these seats in the House and they're going to pick up all these seats in the Senate. It's a foregone conclusion. Now, if people are this upset with Congress, and the president's numbers are higher — you know, this is a risky thing to try to analyze. You have to ask how many Americans understand that Congress is now run by Democrats? How many of them think that Congress is just an extension of the White House and are blaming it on Republicans? Well, you don't know. But I think one of the keys here in every call I get, and every comment I get from people talking about this, whether it's here on the program or in my highly focused personal and private life, it's the gasoline price. The gasoline price is the root of everything because that affects the cost of food, the cost of leisure time activity, the cost of entertainment, and it's a gold mine. It is simply a golden opportunity for the Republican Party here to really make some big hay.

I wholehearedly agree with the idea here.

This is what frustrates me about the Republicans.
1) FACT: Democrats control Congress.
2) FACT: Approval of Congress is even lower than approval for Bush (9% this month).
3) MY OPINION: I think that if you poll a random person in the street and ask him/her who controls Congress, half of them would say the Republicans.

McCain is starting to put together an energy plan to help offset the gas price increase, and he's starting to call Obama "Dr. No" because Obama is against any of those proposals(increased drilling, nuclear options, incentives for battery development, gas tax holiday, etc.).

But it's not enough. Every single Republican out there should hammer these themes over the next 4 months:

1) Gas prices have skyrocketed - hurting everyone's pocketbook
2) The Democratic controlled congress has done NOTHING to help you
3) Here is our 4 point plan (mirroring McCain's plan)
4) Democrats - including Obama - have opposed every point of our plan
5) In fact, Democrats - including Obama - don't have a plan to decrease prices (as evidenced by ZERO action in Congress)
6) So who are you voting for? A party with new ideas on tackling skyrocketing prices, or the party who opposed any and all solutions?

That can be a winner. Why the Republican party - and Bush - doesn't embrace this chain of thought is beyond me.

I still have vivid memories of Bill Clinton HAMMERING Newt and the Republican Congress every single day from 1995-2000. Every Single Day. Clinton never stopped reminding people who was behind the congressional policies he opposed. For instance, the budget shutdown - Clinton successfully turned the tables and blamed Congress for the shutdown. Classic politics in action.

Why the Republicans aren't doing the same and placing a lot of the political blame of higher gas prices on Pelosi and company is beyond me.

The only article you need to read...

...about the 2008 election.

If this article doesn't propel you to vote for McCain, then nothing - and I mean nothing - will.

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1819898-1,00.html

Dammit, I wish I was one of McCain's aides....

Breaking news from P&G

I can't wait to see the comments on this blog about this story:

Gillette adds Derek Jeter to Champions Program

I'll start: If Derek Jeter is added, then we should add C.C. Sabathia as well. They've won the same number of rings since Sabathia came into the league in 2001.

And I can't wait until Brady Quinn is added to the program!

Ah, college girlfriends...

So we got our "Case Alumni" magazine in the mail the other day. As I was browsing through it, there was a page in there for alumni to write about memories they have of their favrorite professor. One student wrote about a physics professor that I knew but never had, and I didn't give it much attention - until the end.

At the bottom, there was a request from the magazine for people to submit stories about specific professors. One of them was a Systems Engineering professor - my major - that I did not like and that Janice hated with a passion. The best way to describe him would be - hmmmm....... Mort Goldman from "Family Guy" crossed with the Comic Book Guy from "The Simpsons". Yes, that scary - and he actually wore spandex to class a few times.

Anyway, I thought it'd be fun to show Janice the article and ask her to submit a letter about this Systems professor. She reads the request, laughs, and then rads the original article about the physics professor.

"Why did you show this to me? You know who wrote this article, right?"

No, I didn't check to see who wrote it. I look at it again - it was my first girlfriend from the dorm - a two week fling that should not have happened. She was a band enthusiast - I know, I know - from Pittsburgh, of all places. Ugh. And all my friends (and most others in the dorm) gave her the name of "ButtCut" since her hair was parted in the middle and feathered high on both sides.

Wow - 1989 hair styles.

It was a rebound relationship, after my high school girlfriend didn't talk to me for the 2-3 weeks before I left Sacramento for Cleveland. And something that all the people who knew me freshman year still make fun of me for.

Here we go again

The Cincinnati Met is tomorrow - 200+ golfers playing 36 holes over Monday and Tuesaday to get down to a final 64, where they are then seeded for Match Play.

For the first time this year, I think I actually have some clue where the ball may be going off the club. Three thoughts:

- stand closer to the ball

- compact backswing

- and swing through the ball

A tune from "Swing Out Sister" always helps me remember this swing thought - say, "Breakout":

Don't stop to ask

Now you've found a break to make at last

You've got to find a way

Say what you want to say

Breakout....

Anyway - the courses we are playing:

The Ridge Club - 6450 yds, par 70; Terrace Park, 6800 , par 72.

Don, myself and the Good Doctor (Dr. Todd) are all in the field as we start tomorrow. The early lines:

Don vs Eric:

Don -0.5

Eric

Over/under:

Eric: over/under 161.5

Don: over/under 161