Arod, are you ready for Vegas? Oh, he's ready.Thank you Jon for the picture!!!
Mar 18, 2008
March of Dimes
For those of you who want to donate to a very good cause, please visit my website. Last year, Farmers Insurance Group was the second largest donator to the March of Dimes. Please help out the little babies. And no, the money won't be funnelled into my Vegas account.
100 Hours in Vegas
It hit me last night that the Vegas trip for me is about 100 hours long - from Wed at 9 pm to Mon at midnight when my plane shuts the doors. 99 hours in Vegas.
So - instead of laying out the financial budget for the trip, why not list out the time budget for these 99 hours? How can I maximize the gambling time for those 99 hours?
"Planned" losses for the trip:
Sleep - 4x6 hrs? - 24 hours. I think this is a good guess at it. Does it include the nap/passing out at the cabana on Saturday?
Travel to/from Airport - 4 hours
Meals - 10 hours
Golf - 14 hours total
"Watching tv" in the Palazzo bathroom - 1 hour (possibly more)
Total planned losses: 53 hours
So that leaves 46 free hours.
"unplanned", wasted time:
Wandering around the casino/book trying to shop lines/talk to janitors to elicit tips on games: 4 hours
Watching games, hoping for Portland St to score a meaningless basket in the last 30 second to lose 100-44, thus covering the over: 10 hours
Playing the role of a beached whale, sunning myself at the cabana and being a body double for the "before" person on the NutriSystem commercials: 4 hours
That leaves 28 hours for gambling. So if I stay under $50 loss per hour, we should be fine!
(By the way, my body still hasn't adjusted in coming back from France. The last three mornings I have woken up at 5:30 wide awake. I better adjust soon, or else I'll be waking up at 3 or so in Vegas every morning - just in time to see Don come in from poker and strip in front of me. *shiver*)
So - instead of laying out the financial budget for the trip, why not list out the time budget for these 99 hours? How can I maximize the gambling time for those 99 hours?
"Planned" losses for the trip:
Sleep - 4x6 hrs? - 24 hours. I think this is a good guess at it. Does it include the nap/passing out at the cabana on Saturday?
Travel to/from Airport - 4 hours
Meals - 10 hours
Golf - 14 hours total
"Watching tv" in the Palazzo bathroom - 1 hour (possibly more)
Total planned losses: 53 hours
So that leaves 46 free hours.
"unplanned", wasted time:
Wandering around the casino/book trying to shop lines/talk to janitors to elicit tips on games: 4 hours
Watching games, hoping for Portland St to score a meaningless basket in the last 30 second to lose 100-44, thus covering the over: 10 hours
Playing the role of a beached whale, sunning myself at the cabana and being a body double for the "before" person on the NutriSystem commercials: 4 hours
That leaves 28 hours for gambling. So if I stay under $50 loss per hour, we should be fine!
(By the way, my body still hasn't adjusted in coming back from France. The last three mornings I have woken up at 5:30 wide awake. I better adjust soon, or else I'll be waking up at 3 or so in Vegas every morning - just in time to see Don come in from poker and strip in front of me. *shiver*)
Mar 17, 2008
Two days and counting
The feeling for this trip is beginning to change for me. I have been excited for about one month and it is now being replaced by a level of focus and determination that I really have never felt before a Vegas trip. The reason for this is that my number one goal for this trip is to win. Yes, I want to have fun and hang out with everyone, but in the end I won't be truly happy unless I come back a winner. I feel like I have the bankroll, along with a solid game plan to come out a winner. So onto the budget. Note: these amounts are subject to change depending on some additional input I might receive from the readers and my brother.
Sportsbook ($600): I strongly urge everyone to call Eric before the trip and let him walk you through his post on how to come up with what to bet on each game. It was an eye opening experience. While I was drawing out the equations on a big white board that I had when I used to run a book, it all started to make such clear sense. A couple of things I found out while doing this:
Other ($300)- I have set aside some money for the spa.
Sportsbook ($600): I strongly urge everyone to call Eric before the trip and let him walk you through his post on how to come up with what to bet on each game. It was an eye opening experience. While I was drawing out the equations on a big white board that I had when I used to run a book, it all started to make such clear sense. A couple of things I found out while doing this:
- My probability of each game should be below 50%. What a shocker eh? I put it at 40%, but the peanut gallery (Carol) chimed in that it should be around 20%. Thanks for the vote of confidence honey.
- By changing my P to a lower percentage, I can already take into account having some bad stretches. Makes me feel comfortable to then wager on my allotted games and know that in the end, I should be well within my budget.
- I said I was going to only bet on 10 games a day, which is actually an increase over last year. With that being said, I already like 11 games on Thursday and that is without the NIT, Women's games, and the NBA. Will have to do a little more research on this.
Craps ($2000)- Yes, this is my biggest allotment of cash to one game. I absolutely love craps. And yes I will be playing $25 craps for one session. Why do I have a feeling that all of us will be at this craps table by ourselves with Eric, Don, Mike, and Kermit on one end and Lee, Micah, Wiz, and I on the other end and it will be a pass vs. don't pass war for the ages. This will probably end with a fist fight between a couple of us.
BJ ($1000)- I have about 6 BJ cards that I will be putting into everyone of my jeans and shorts so I will never be without one for the trip.
Roulette ($600)- I have added a cushion in on this budget for a round of stupid bets with Wiz.
Pai Gow ($300)- I have no idea on how much to budget here. I went with $300 last year so I'm going with the same again since it seemed to work out.
Wheel ($200)- Two sessions allotted.Other ($300)- I have set aside some money for the spa.
Vegas Planning
Here is the schedule for the games on Thursday and Friday, to help with the planning for this week:
Thursday
Tip Offs around 9:20-9:40 PT
3 Xavier - 14 Georgia
1 Kansas - 16 Portland St
5 Michigan St - 12 Temple
Tip Offs around 11:30-12:00 PT
6 Marquette va 11 Kentucky
6 Purdue vs 11 Baylor
9 UNLV vs 9 Kent St
4 Pittsburgh vs 13 Oral Roberts
Tip Off at 2:00 PT
3 Stanford vs 14 Cornell
Tip Offs around 4:10 - 4:25 PT
6 USC vs 11 Kansas St
2 Duke vs 15 Belmont
4 Washington St vs 13 Winthrop
8 BYU vs 9 Texas A&M
Tip Offs around 6:40-6:55 PT
3 Wisconsin vs 14 CS-Fullerton
7 West Virginia vs 10 Arizona
5 Notre Dame vs 12 George Mason
1 UCLA vs 16 Miss Valley St
Friday
Tip Offs around 9:10-9:25 PT
2 Tennessee vs 15 American
7 Gonzaga vs 10 Davidson
7 Miami-FL vs 10 St Mary's
5 Drake vs 12 Western Kentucky
Tip Offs around 11:45-12:00 PT
7 Butler vs 10 South Alabama
2 Georgetown vs 15 UMBC
2 Texas vs 15 Austin Peay
4 Connecticut vs 13 San Diego
Tip Offs around 4:10-4:25 PT
6 Oklahoma vs 11 St Joseph's
4 Vanderbilt vs 13 Siena
8 Mississippi St vs 9 Oregon
1 North Carolina vs 16 Mount St Mary's/Coppin St
Tip Offs around 6:40-6:55 PT
8 Indiana vs 9 Arkansas
3 Louisville vs 14 Boise St
5 Clemson vs 12 Villanovs
1 Memphis vs 16 TX-Arlington
The first thing that stands out is that Don and Mike will be rushing to play fast in order to get back to see the Purdue game. If we play in 4 hours, we'll get back by around 11:45 or so - just after tip. Unless Eric decides to go into stall mode on the course....
Thursday
Tip Offs around 9:20-9:40 PT
3 Xavier - 14 Georgia
1 Kansas - 16 Portland St
5 Michigan St - 12 Temple
Tip Offs around 11:30-12:00 PT
6 Marquette va 11 Kentucky
6 Purdue vs 11 Baylor
9 UNLV vs 9 Kent St
4 Pittsburgh vs 13 Oral Roberts
Tip Off at 2:00 PT
3 Stanford vs 14 Cornell
Tip Offs around 4:10 - 4:25 PT
6 USC vs 11 Kansas St
2 Duke vs 15 Belmont
4 Washington St vs 13 Winthrop
8 BYU vs 9 Texas A&M
Tip Offs around 6:40-6:55 PT
3 Wisconsin vs 14 CS-Fullerton
7 West Virginia vs 10 Arizona
5 Notre Dame vs 12 George Mason
1 UCLA vs 16 Miss Valley St
Friday
Tip Offs around 9:10-9:25 PT
2 Tennessee vs 15 American
7 Gonzaga vs 10 Davidson
7 Miami-FL vs 10 St Mary's
5 Drake vs 12 Western Kentucky
Tip Offs around 11:45-12:00 PT
7 Butler vs 10 South Alabama
2 Georgetown vs 15 UMBC
2 Texas vs 15 Austin Peay
4 Connecticut vs 13 San Diego
Tip Offs around 4:10-4:25 PT
6 Oklahoma vs 11 St Joseph's
4 Vanderbilt vs 13 Siena
8 Mississippi St vs 9 Oregon
1 North Carolina vs 16 Mount St Mary's/Coppin St
Tip Offs around 6:40-6:55 PT
8 Indiana vs 9 Arkansas
3 Louisville vs 14 Boise St
5 Clemson vs 12 Villanovs
1 Memphis vs 16 TX-Arlington
The first thing that stands out is that Don and Mike will be rushing to play fast in order to get back to see the Purdue game. If we play in 4 hours, we'll get back by around 11:45 or so - just after tip. Unless Eric decides to go into stall mode on the course....
Mar 16, 2008
It's NIT Time!
We will be running the annual NIT Pool (what is it, the 6th annual?) for us degenerates.
The brackets can be found here at this link.
As usual, the scoring system is:
1 pt for 1st round winners
2 pts for 2nd round winners
4 pts for 3rd round winners (that's your final four)
8 pts for 4th roudn winners
16 pts for the Champion.
Tiebreaker: total points in championship game
$5 entry. All entries must be sent to me before 6 pm Eastern on Tuesday, March 18.
The brackets can be found here at this link.
As usual, the scoring system is:
1 pt for 1st round winners
2 pts for 2nd round winners
4 pts for 3rd round winners (that's your final four)
8 pts for 4th roudn winners
16 pts for the Champion.
Tiebreaker: total points in championship game
$5 entry. All entries must be sent to me before 6 pm Eastern on Tuesday, March 18.
Down the stretch they come
Quick thoughts on the bracket:
1. Everyone is up in arms about Arizona. Count them in for one win.
2. UCLA will not make it out of their regional. Whenever they say that someone has an easy avenue to the final four, they usually end up stumbling early on.
3. On the flip side, man look at the UNC regional. I was waiting on taking TN and Lousiville to the final four if they were all in separate regionals.
4. Portland State got screwed. They are a great team and they go up against Kansas? Whatever.
5. UMBC- they have some size and are a pretty solid team. Not calling an upset here, but I think they can cover.
6. Fullerton- Got burned last year with LBC against TN. The Big West struggled outside of their conference, so I'm just going with the under in this game.
7. I'm looking for an easy upset, but I can't really find one, which is good. Usually I'm all excited about one and I get destroyed. I am very interested in San Diego vs UConn. San Diego has proved that they can play on the road and win. Maybe??
8. Finally I just want to say great job to Nike. These commercials that they have recently pumped out are outstanding!!!
1. Everyone is up in arms about Arizona. Count them in for one win.
2. UCLA will not make it out of their regional. Whenever they say that someone has an easy avenue to the final four, they usually end up stumbling early on.
3. On the flip side, man look at the UNC regional. I was waiting on taking TN and Lousiville to the final four if they were all in separate regionals.
4. Portland State got screwed. They are a great team and they go up against Kansas? Whatever.
5. UMBC- they have some size and are a pretty solid team. Not calling an upset here, but I think they can cover.
6. Fullerton- Got burned last year with LBC against TN. The Big West struggled outside of their conference, so I'm just going with the under in this game.
7. I'm looking for an easy upset, but I can't really find one, which is good. Usually I'm all excited about one and I get destroyed. I am very interested in San Diego vs UConn. San Diego has proved that they can play on the road and win. Maybe??
8. Finally I just want to say great job to Nike. These commercials that they have recently pumped out are outstanding!!!
I'd rather be thinking about Vegas
Ugh. That's how I feel this afternoon after going out in San Diego last night for a birthday party. The party was at a club called the Stingaree which was a typical high end club. It took my friend and I about 20 minutes to figure out how to actually get inside and up to the VIP table. Once there it was pretty amazing. I usually hate going to clubs, but its a little bit different when you have the following:
- Bottle Service- Bottles that are pre-purchased and at your table, allowing you to bypass the packed bar. Come to find out that each bottle was about $450. Why?
- Elevated roped off area- We had our own security to keep the riff raff away from our elevated sofas and tables. Felt very important wearing my one "going out" shirt.
- FREE- Every once in a while Carol and her friends want to go out to clubs to go dancing. The worst part is waking up the next morning to find the 4 or 5 massive credit card receipts and realize that it was the biggest waste of money. This time, the birthday girl's boyfriend paid for everything. Total cost of the night was $8 for me.
Got home around 2 am and then Carol and I spent the next hour looking for an open fast food joint that was open. After hitting every major store, only Del Taco was open. After three tacos and a large chili fries, I was passed out and on my way to a massive hangover the next morning.
And the best part of the night had to be the people watching. How many sluts can you fit into one club in San Diego? About 500 by my count. And you can probably add another 300 douche bags as well.
Lakers
Why is there cakebatter in my hair?
First off, how much courage does one man have to pull this off? Seriously!!! Secondly, Eric, don't fall asleep on the way out to Vegas. I heard the guy sitting next to you is a little sketchy. Mar 14, 2008
Statistical Homework for the weekend
I think I have found an answer to a question that has been bugging me regarding sports wagering. I hope you all can find this statistical treatise useful for next week.
Given that you have $X amount available to bet on sports, and you are picking N games over a finite time period, and you accept R% risk that your cash may be lost on these game, then what is the optimal bet size that you should make?
First, we need to establish the probability p of a successful bet. What should p be:
p =
0.5 for normal uses
0.57 for Eric's NFL picks, 2005-2006
0.41 for Eric's NFL picks, 2007
0.37 if your name is Leland
0.75 if you are Kermit and betting against any games where Wiz and Eric agree
Each bet is a sample from the binomial distribution.
The expected wins are Np.
The standard deviation for the # of wins is the square root of (N)(p)(1-p)
So if you are someone like Eric in 2003, N would be 60 and p=0.5, the expected # of wins is 30 with a std deviation of sqrt(15), or about 4.
OK - now as the number of games increase, this approaches the bell curve distribution. That's the key here. You can now use the bell curve to have a confidence that you won't lose more than a certain number of games.
You have a 3% or less chance to lose more than (Np)-2 std deviations. You only have a 15% chance to lose more than (Np)-1 std deviation. We'll call D to be the # of deviations you are willing to accept. A 10% chance is 1.3 std deviations.
Given the D you choose, you now have that confidence in going having (Np-D*Std Dev) wins and (Np+D*Std Dev) losses.
You then use this to figure out your maximum loss. Your maximum loss given your D is:
(Np - D*(Std Dev))*B - (Np + D(Std Dev))*(B*1.10), where Std Dev is the standard deviation you figured out above.
Now you set this maximum loss to your bankroll and solve for B - voila! Your optimum unit bet size!
For example, Layup has $500 to work with and wants to bet 16 games (5 mens, 10 womens, with a double unit on the Lady Boilers). He is willing to take 15% risk.
We assume he does not listen to Leland and his p for each game is 50%.
Expected wins: Np = 8
Std deviation: sqrt(N*p*(1-p)) = sqrt(16*0.25) = 2
Now, his D for 15% risk is 1. So his worse case is (8-2) wins and (8+2) losses, with 15% risk. In other words, he is taking a 15% chance that he will not do worse than 6-10.
What would Layup bet to be 6-10 and lose his bankroll, $500?
6B - 11B = 500; B = 100.
So therefore he will make $100 bets.
It can be shown that if Layup was more conservative and took only 3% risk, his unit bet would then be only $54.34. This will be an exercise for the reader. (I've always wanted to say that.....)
"Well", you say, "he may go 1-6 and be out of money by 2:00 pm on Thursday!". That's the 15% risk. Or that's the alcohol making the picks. Or Don is whispering "Big Ten" in his ear all weekend.
Given that you have $X amount available to bet on sports, and you are picking N games over a finite time period, and you accept R% risk that your cash may be lost on these game, then what is the optimal bet size that you should make?
First, we need to establish the probability p of a successful bet. What should p be:
p =
0.5 for normal uses
0.57 for Eric's NFL picks, 2005-2006
0.41 for Eric's NFL picks, 2007
0.37 if your name is Leland
0.75 if you are Kermit and betting against any games where Wiz and Eric agree
Each bet is a sample from the binomial distribution.
The expected wins are Np.
The standard deviation for the # of wins is the square root of (N)(p)(1-p)
So if you are someone like Eric in 2003, N would be 60 and p=0.5, the expected # of wins is 30 with a std deviation of sqrt(15), or about 4.
OK - now as the number of games increase, this approaches the bell curve distribution. That's the key here. You can now use the bell curve to have a confidence that you won't lose more than a certain number of games.
You have a 3% or less chance to lose more than (Np)-2 std deviations. You only have a 15% chance to lose more than (Np)-1 std deviation. We'll call D to be the # of deviations you are willing to accept. A 10% chance is 1.3 std deviations.
Given the D you choose, you now have that confidence in going having (Np-D*Std Dev) wins and (Np+D*Std Dev) losses.
You then use this to figure out your maximum loss. Your maximum loss given your D is:
(Np - D*(Std Dev))*B - (Np + D(Std Dev))*(B*1.10), where Std Dev is the standard deviation you figured out above.
Now you set this maximum loss to your bankroll and solve for B - voila! Your optimum unit bet size!
For example, Layup has $500 to work with and wants to bet 16 games (5 mens, 10 womens, with a double unit on the Lady Boilers). He is willing to take 15% risk.
We assume he does not listen to Leland and his p for each game is 50%.
Expected wins: Np = 8
Std deviation: sqrt(N*p*(1-p)) = sqrt(16*0.25) = 2
Now, his D for 15% risk is 1. So his worse case is (8-2) wins and (8+2) losses, with 15% risk. In other words, he is taking a 15% chance that he will not do worse than 6-10.
What would Layup bet to be 6-10 and lose his bankroll, $500?
6B - 11B = 500; B = 100.
So therefore he will make $100 bets.
It can be shown that if Layup was more conservative and took only 3% risk, his unit bet would then be only $54.34. This will be an exercise for the reader. (I've always wanted to say that.....)
"Well", you say, "he may go 1-6 and be out of money by 2:00 pm on Thursday!". That's the 15% risk. Or that's the alcohol making the picks. Or Don is whispering "Big Ten" in his ear all weekend.
Goals for the trip
We talked about what you are looking forward to....but what are your goals for Vegas week?
My goal is to.....
1) Open the trip with a Tom Collins
2) Go 60% in my basketball picks. That means going 14-10 or so for 24 games.
3) Avoid a "Black XXXday", like Black Friday in 2006 or Black Saturday in 2007
4) "Take Over" a table one time during the weekend (like the Monte Carlo table, 2006 or the infamous Pai Gow table in 2007)
5) Beat everyone in golf by at least 3 shots on one of the two days
6) Get drunk on the course one of the two days. I still smile when I think of Mer and I on that public course, drinking vodka tonics for 5 straight hours....I then 3-putt 17 and 18 to lose by 1 (I think)...we then find a podunk casino, play craps for 3 hours, drive back (Mer was in no shape to drive, and I was worse), trade text messages with Kermit's (ex) stripper girlfriend....then make an ass of myself at dinner..... ahhhhhh
7) "Win" (or "lose"?) at Credit Card Roulette. My name is not being picked. Do we have a limit?
8) Stay at a $25 Pai Gow table for more than 1 hour.
9) Have enough to take a stab at a $25 Craps table session.....gulp
10) Drink patterns at a table:
- if before 9 am, coffee; after the coffee, Kahlua and Cream
- between 9 am and 6 pm: water and Daiquiris
- after 6 pm: Mr. Tom Collins!
11) Get to know the Venetian sports book ticket man by name
12) stay disciplined and avoid any World Wars (see 2003)
13) shout "$80,000" once
14) say "Hello, Bee" at least 10 times
15) yell "Backdoor Action" as many times as possible
My goal is to.....
1) Open the trip with a Tom Collins
2) Go 60% in my basketball picks. That means going 14-10 or so for 24 games.
3) Avoid a "Black XXXday", like Black Friday in 2006 or Black Saturday in 2007
4) "Take Over" a table one time during the weekend (like the Monte Carlo table, 2006 or the infamous Pai Gow table in 2007)
5) Beat everyone in golf by at least 3 shots on one of the two days
6) Get drunk on the course one of the two days. I still smile when I think of Mer and I on that public course, drinking vodka tonics for 5 straight hours....I then 3-putt 17 and 18 to lose by 1 (I think)...we then find a podunk casino, play craps for 3 hours, drive back (Mer was in no shape to drive, and I was worse), trade text messages with Kermit's (ex) stripper girlfriend....then make an ass of myself at dinner..... ahhhhhh
7) "Win" (or "lose"?) at Credit Card Roulette. My name is not being picked. Do we have a limit?
8) Stay at a $25 Pai Gow table for more than 1 hour.
9) Have enough to take a stab at a $25 Craps table session.....gulp
10) Drink patterns at a table:
- if before 9 am, coffee; after the coffee, Kahlua and Cream
- between 9 am and 6 pm: water and Daiquiris
- after 6 pm: Mr. Tom Collins!
11) Get to know the Venetian sports book ticket man by name
12) stay disciplined and avoid any World Wars (see 2003)
13) shout "$80,000" once
14) say "Hello, Bee" at least 10 times
15) yell "Backdoor Action" as many times as possible
The last one....
....before Vegas! On Sunday, we will have the actual games that fall in these categories:
The D'Artagan/George W Bush Game
(1) Tennessee vs (16) Md-Baltimore County
(by the way, how far is UMBC from Diamond Ridge? Can you see the campus from the golf course? God, what piece of crap courses we played in high school........ I still remember having to leave the back nine of my match on 15, 4 up with 4 to play, becuase I had to fill a role in Hereford's production of "Guys and Dolls" that night......
I'm sorry, where were we?
The Don Hershey Game
(4) Purdue vs (13) Oral Roberts
Layup's 5-12 Upset
(5) Butler vs (12) Western Kentucky
The Wiz Heart Attack Game
(6) Clemson vs (11) South Alabama
Eric's Ohio Underdog Game
(7) Oklahoma vs (10) Kent St
The RRD Virginia Lock Game
(vacant....although this may change on Sunday)
The Leland/John the Pai Gow Dealer Game
(7) Mississippi St vs (10) Arizona
The Kermit P "if all 7 of you are going one way, I know which way I'm going" Game
(8) West Virginia vs (9) St Mary's
The Mike D Cheesesteak Game
(6) Michigan St vs (11) St Joseph's
The Micah game most likely to end in broken bones (by the bettors, just to be clear)
(7) Pittsburgh vs (10) UNLV
Layup's $500 on the Money Line Game
(3) Wisconsin vs (14) UC - Santa Barbara
Wiz's ACC / Mid-Atlantic Lock of the Week
(8) Davidson vs (9) Miami-FL
The Gus Johnson Game
(6) Washington St vs (11) Illinois St
The 8-9 Game No One Cares About
(8) Gonzaga vs (9) Texas A&M
The 9:00 on Thursday First Upset of the Tournament
(4) Indiana vs (13) Stephen F. Austin
(or should I have put the Heart Attack Game here too?)
The Game No One But Eric Cares About
(6) BYU vs (11) Oregon
Eric's Random Unload on an Over/Under Game
(3) Xavier vs (14) Siena
The D'Artagan/George W Bush Game
(1) Tennessee vs (16) Md-Baltimore County
(by the way, how far is UMBC from Diamond Ridge? Can you see the campus from the golf course? God, what piece of crap courses we played in high school........ I still remember having to leave the back nine of my match on 15, 4 up with 4 to play, becuase I had to fill a role in Hereford's production of "Guys and Dolls" that night......
I'm sorry, where were we?
The Don Hershey Game
(4) Purdue vs (13) Oral Roberts
Layup's 5-12 Upset
(5) Butler vs (12) Western Kentucky
The Wiz Heart Attack Game
(6) Clemson vs (11) South Alabama
Eric's Ohio Underdog Game
(7) Oklahoma vs (10) Kent St
The RRD Virginia Lock Game
(vacant....although this may change on Sunday)
The Leland/John the Pai Gow Dealer Game
(7) Mississippi St vs (10) Arizona
The Kermit P "if all 7 of you are going one way, I know which way I'm going" Game
(8) West Virginia vs (9) St Mary's
The Mike D Cheesesteak Game
(6) Michigan St vs (11) St Joseph's
The Micah game most likely to end in broken bones (by the bettors, just to be clear)
(7) Pittsburgh vs (10) UNLV
Layup's $500 on the Money Line Game
(3) Wisconsin vs (14) UC - Santa Barbara
Wiz's ACC / Mid-Atlantic Lock of the Week
(8) Davidson vs (9) Miami-FL
The Gus Johnson Game
(6) Washington St vs (11) Illinois St
The 8-9 Game No One Cares About
(8) Gonzaga vs (9) Texas A&M
The 9:00 on Thursday First Upset of the Tournament
(4) Indiana vs (13) Stephen F. Austin
(or should I have put the Heart Attack Game here too?)
The Game No One But Eric Cares About
(6) BYU vs (11) Oregon
Eric's Random Unload on an Over/Under Game
(3) Xavier vs (14) Siena
We are on the bubble....
of the NIT!!!! Wow, what a ridiculous choke job by the Terps. How did this happen?? The last six regular season games, they should have easily went 4-2 (FSU, VT, @MIA, @WFU, CLEM, @VA) - instead they went 2-4 blowing double digit leads in most of the losses. Unbelievable. I know this team is young, but to me there is no excuse for the way this season fell apart. So...where do we go?
Well, if I was AD of UMCP I would see how next year turns out and if we mis the tournament again, I would give him the axe. Look, I know what he did for the program, he is a decent coach who had a very nice run from 1993 to 2002. But how long does he get the "get-out-of-jail-free" card?? Going to the NIT three of the last four years is a complete joke. We have top line facilities, an appealing school, a decent location, top conference, etc. I am a realist, I know we aren't going to get Duke and Carolina's kids - I get that. But there is a HUGE delta to the level of those programs and not even making the freaking tournament. As UM fans OUR money and donations helped erect the Comcast center in the afterglow of the final four runs and championship. Well six years later, and where are we??? I don't believe the vision for the Comcast center was hosting first round NIT games!
So doing a little autopsy on this season leads me to a few points:
- We led the conference in FG% defense and FG% offense. But yet the scoring margin was negative. Why?? Turnovers. Yes, we led the conf in assists, but that came with a huge penalty of being the most inefficient offense (2nd in turnovers).
- The Eric Hayes Experience. Yes, I have an entire bullet point on him. What a disappointment he has been. Remember coming in how he was the next Steve Blake? At this rate, he is just hoping to become the next Matt Kouvarik. Ugh. It looks like he has one ACC level skill - shooting the three (and even that isn't spectacular). Honestly, he belongs as a backup two guard who could play 10 to 12 minutes and maybe knock down a three - he is NOT an ACC starter. He is pathetic on defense, is an absolute turnover machine (even after being stripped of point guard duties), and seems to have no confidence when handling the ball. Over the last six deciding games here is what the Eric Hayes Experience submitted - 41% FG, 9.4 PPG, 1.7 APG and (wait for it...) 3.14 TURNOVERS PER GAME. This is despite the fact that his point guard minutes evaporated to Vazquez AND Bowie over this stretch - amazing.
- Our interior defense made up for a lot of ills. Osby, Gist and Burnie really helped control the glass and defend the paint (hence the block shot and FG% numbers). However, our perimeter defense was awful and we ranked near the bottom of the conference in steals, even though we played some trapping and pressing. That is a complete indictment of our backcourt and wing players. If this doesn't improve dramatically next season (with Osby and Gist gone), we will filling out an NIT bracket once again.
- Less is more for Vasquez. Hey, I'm a charter member of the Vasquez fan club - I was on early last year. He makes a lot of dumb moves, but I still like him. However, I don't really think he is a point guard. I think with him "dominating" the ball so much it is not the best use of his skills. I would like to see him as a point forward. You can still have a lot of offense go through him, but more on the wing, and less controlling the dribble of the ball full court. Plus, having a front court player (SF) with his passing ability is a big advantage if you have another pure PG on the floor. Right now that guy doesn't really exist (unless Bowie is your man next year?), so there isn't much of a choice. You have to sink or swim with Vasquez right now.
My $.02 - feel free to chime in Terp fans. I know you want to vent!
Well, if I was AD of UMCP I would see how next year turns out and if we mis the tournament again, I would give him the axe. Look, I know what he did for the program, he is a decent coach who had a very nice run from 1993 to 2002. But how long does he get the "get-out-of-jail-free" card?? Going to the NIT three of the last four years is a complete joke. We have top line facilities, an appealing school, a decent location, top conference, etc. I am a realist, I know we aren't going to get Duke and Carolina's kids - I get that. But there is a HUGE delta to the level of those programs and not even making the freaking tournament. As UM fans OUR money and donations helped erect the Comcast center in the afterglow of the final four runs and championship. Well six years later, and where are we??? I don't believe the vision for the Comcast center was hosting first round NIT games!
So doing a little autopsy on this season leads me to a few points:
- We led the conference in FG% defense and FG% offense. But yet the scoring margin was negative. Why?? Turnovers. Yes, we led the conf in assists, but that came with a huge penalty of being the most inefficient offense (2nd in turnovers).
- The Eric Hayes Experience. Yes, I have an entire bullet point on him. What a disappointment he has been. Remember coming in how he was the next Steve Blake? At this rate, he is just hoping to become the next Matt Kouvarik. Ugh. It looks like he has one ACC level skill - shooting the three (and even that isn't spectacular). Honestly, he belongs as a backup two guard who could play 10 to 12 minutes and maybe knock down a three - he is NOT an ACC starter. He is pathetic on defense, is an absolute turnover machine (even after being stripped of point guard duties), and seems to have no confidence when handling the ball. Over the last six deciding games here is what the Eric Hayes Experience submitted - 41% FG, 9.4 PPG, 1.7 APG and (wait for it...) 3.14 TURNOVERS PER GAME. This is despite the fact that his point guard minutes evaporated to Vazquez AND Bowie over this stretch - amazing.
- Our interior defense made up for a lot of ills. Osby, Gist and Burnie really helped control the glass and defend the paint (hence the block shot and FG% numbers). However, our perimeter defense was awful and we ranked near the bottom of the conference in steals, even though we played some trapping and pressing. That is a complete indictment of our backcourt and wing players. If this doesn't improve dramatically next season (with Osby and Gist gone), we will filling out an NIT bracket once again.
- Less is more for Vasquez. Hey, I'm a charter member of the Vasquez fan club - I was on early last year. He makes a lot of dumb moves, but I still like him. However, I don't really think he is a point guard. I think with him "dominating" the ball so much it is not the best use of his skills. I would like to see him as a point forward. You can still have a lot of offense go through him, but more on the wing, and less controlling the dribble of the ball full court. Plus, having a front court player (SF) with his passing ability is a big advantage if you have another pure PG on the floor. Right now that guy doesn't really exist (unless Bowie is your man next year?), so there isn't much of a choice. You have to sink or swim with Vasquez right now.
My $.02 - feel free to chime in Terp fans. I know you want to vent!
Mar 13, 2008
Sorry for this interruption...
Some notes from a French dinner tonight:
1) I received an English menu at this restaurant, and one appetizer appealed to me:
" Souffle of salmon, with prawns and American Sauce - CHEF SPECIALITY!"
Ok, sounds good, so I ordered it.....and then I wondered - what do the French think "American Sauce" is? Ketchup? Cocktail Sauce? Tartar sauce?
The surprise is revealed at the end of this blog post.
2) After a day of training Europeans on technical topics, I then am asked at dinner to explain the US Presidential Election process. Try this sometime. "Well, each party nominates a candidate, but, uh... it takes 6 months to do that"
"Why?"
"uh.....because"
and then:
"So then there is an election in November?"
"Yes - we then choose between the major candidates."
"But - you already voted early in the year! You made your choice!"
"No - we can switch. We can vote for McCain in the spring and - if we want - we can vote for Obama in the fall."
This was shocking to Europeans. Their representative government that they are used has the local reps pick the president, not the people in general. The fact that a Republican can vote for McCain in the primary and then Obama/Clinton in the fall was a puzzler to them.
3) A slice of home: there was a lull in the conversation tonight: during that quiet period, I hear a song in the background. Could it be? No....Yes! Yes it is!
I know there's only, only one like you.
There's no way they could have made two.
Girl you're my reality
But I'm lost in a dream
You're the first, you're the last, my everything
Barry! It's like somebody smuggled a Sirius radio over here and turned it on Channel 7 - the 70's!
God, is it Vegas time yet?
Answer: American Sauce is......gravy. As far as I can tell, it's like Mushroom gravy. Straight out of a Franco-American jar. It was good gravy, don't get me wrong.....but putting that on shrimp and a seafood souffle? Wow. Just...weird. Somebody went to too many KFCs when they visited America.
1) I received an English menu at this restaurant, and one appetizer appealed to me:
" Souffle of salmon, with prawns and American Sauce - CHEF SPECIALITY!"
Ok, sounds good, so I ordered it.....and then I wondered - what do the French think "American Sauce" is? Ketchup? Cocktail Sauce? Tartar sauce?
The surprise is revealed at the end of this blog post.
2) After a day of training Europeans on technical topics, I then am asked at dinner to explain the US Presidential Election process. Try this sometime. "Well, each party nominates a candidate, but, uh... it takes 6 months to do that"
"Why?"
"uh.....because"
and then:
"So then there is an election in November?"
"Yes - we then choose between the major candidates."
"But - you already voted early in the year! You made your choice!"
"No - we can switch. We can vote for McCain in the spring and - if we want - we can vote for Obama in the fall."
This was shocking to Europeans. Their representative government that they are used has the local reps pick the president, not the people in general. The fact that a Republican can vote for McCain in the primary and then Obama/Clinton in the fall was a puzzler to them.
3) A slice of home: there was a lull in the conversation tonight: during that quiet period, I hear a song in the background. Could it be? No....Yes! Yes it is!
I know there's only, only one like you.
There's no way they could have made two.
Girl you're my reality
But I'm lost in a dream
You're the first, you're the last, my everything
Barry! It's like somebody smuggled a Sirius radio over here and turned it on Channel 7 - the 70's!
God, is it Vegas time yet?
Answer: American Sauce is......gravy. As far as I can tell, it's like Mushroom gravy. Straight out of a Franco-American jar. It was good gravy, don't get me wrong.....but putting that on shrimp and a seafood souffle? Wow. Just...weird. Somebody went to too many KFCs when they visited America.
Is it Wednesday yet?
Jesus, I can't take this any longer. I'm so unproductive here at work as I do research for the trip and for my upcoming baseball auction. What research you ask? Well, I'm building the NBA data sheet based off of Jay's scheduling idea from years past. I'm reading as much as I can on women's basketball. I'm getting tickets to the Big West Championship game tomorrow night for a recruiting trip. I'm talking to foreign leaders for advice on how to play baccarat.
The only thing that I'm worried about is that I will so jacked up that when I get out there, I will be by myself for a little bit before Dick gets in. I could go on a big losing streak before anyone really gets there. Ugh....
Mar 12, 2008
I can't wait to......
I'm stuck here in France, and all I can think about is next week.
I can't wait to....
- see the Vegas strip in the window of my arriving plane
- have the first Tom Collins at a Black Jack Table Wed night
- getting drunk on the golf course with Kermit on Thu morning, Fri morning, or both
- say "$100 parlay on Mt St Mary's and UMBC, please"*
- say "Hello, Bee" to the Ace of Spades
- having three or four of you asking for my picks when we all know I'm no better than 50-50
- cheer Kent State to their 7-10 upset - and winning on the money line
- watch Wiz, Layup and Leland get drunk and wager high sums of money on roulette (note to self: stay away)
- resolve to join Mike D at a $25 craps table this trip sometime
- ridicule Kermit and his blazing 7's
- be intrigued by this new Baccarat fetish that Don has
- stand in awe of Micah as he reacts to basketball games ever worse than I do
- plalce lines on ridiculous wagers (like female sex partners of our waitress) at dinner on Friday/Saturday night
- wake up early morning on Thursday to study the men's lines
- wake up early morning on Saturday to study the women's lines
- resolve to have a long session at a $25 table - wither BJ or Pai Gow
- hit a lotto ticket (my motto: the 14th parlay is the charm!)
I can't wait to....
- see the Vegas strip in the window of my arriving plane
- have the first Tom Collins at a Black Jack Table Wed night
- getting drunk on the golf course with Kermit on Thu morning, Fri morning, or both
- say "$100 parlay on Mt St Mary's and UMBC, please"*
- say "Hello, Bee" to the Ace of Spades
- having three or four of you asking for my picks when we all know I'm no better than 50-50
- cheer Kent State to their 7-10 upset - and winning on the money line
- watch Wiz, Layup and Leland get drunk and wager high sums of money on roulette (note to self: stay away)
- resolve to join Mike D at a $25 craps table this trip sometime
- ridicule Kermit and his blazing 7's
- be intrigued by this new Baccarat fetish that Don has
- stand in awe of Micah as he reacts to basketball games ever worse than I do
- plalce lines on ridiculous wagers (like female sex partners of our waitress) at dinner on Friday/Saturday night
- wake up early morning on Thursday to study the men's lines
- wake up early morning on Saturday to study the women's lines
- resolve to have a long session at a $25 table - wither BJ or Pai Gow
- hit a lotto ticket (my motto: the 14th parlay is the charm!)
Mar 11, 2008
We apologize...
It seemed as if Eric was trying to announce that his family was going to add an additional member in September but we all missed it. And its another boy!!!! Congrats Eric. I was able to travel in the future and get a picture of all three of them living on the street corner due to their dad losing all their money in Vegas betting on the Don't Pass line. Any possible names yet?
Loss Limit
I'm starting to get many readers pointing their anger towards me instead of their normal subject in Eric. How can they let his Three's Company song about golf get let off the hook and I take a beating on my pop, lock, and drop it post. I guess they are giving him a pass since he is in France planning an extensive land war against the Mirage Sportsbook.
Anyway, I wanted to comment a little more in depth about Eric's question about entertainment vs. making money on the Vegas trip. This has been a huge issue with me over the course of 11 years out in Vegas. I used to think that "Well, I have a budget and if I don't come home with anything, then so be it. As long as I had fun with my friends, I'm happy." This would allow me to handle losing sessions a little better and not become depressed when I came home with nothing. But after 10 years of this happening, I started to I realize that when I had this attitude, it made me very careless with my money and I had a tendency to stay at tables when I should of gotten up and walked away. This all changed last year.
When I was reading my posts from all of my trips last year, I found a common theme. I became more focused on my budget and I planned on making money. This resulted in much smaller losing sessions and my 1st actual winning trip. And when I looked at how I planned out those trips, it all came down to limiting the budget on those areas that cost me the most in years past, the Sportsbook and Roulette. I know that some people plan a budget for the entire trip, or by day. This never worked for me, so I actually had to budget by type of game.
Now that doesn't mean that I won't play them at all, but I have to have some type of controls and limits when I do. For example, in 2006 and prior, the Sportsbook would bleed me to death. I would have about 4 games that I liked. I would bet them heavy and then after a couple of drinks I would bet some more. Then if I started to lose, I would panic and bet even more games, or if I won, I would bet more games. No matter which way my day turned, I would be betting more and losing more at the end of the trip. In the end it would be a disaster. And I'm not a good college basketball handicapper. That's why I started a book. I also discovered that I could get just as excited with $20 on a game than $50 or $100. So knowing that I suck at college basketball and I enjoy the games just as much with a smaller amount, why would I just throw money away. So now, I set a lose limit of $600 for the trip, bet a smaller selection of games and that's it.
The same works for Roulette. I let myself have two full sessions at roulette. If I lose everything allotted during those two sessions, then that is it. But if I win, I will allow myself to play a little bit more at Roulette. But I won't roll that money over into another type of game to cover those losses. Once I hit my loss limit for a game, then that is it. And during the course of last year, I never hit my loss limit on a type of game since I was a little more careful with my money.
I also know that there is nothing that is going to stop the stupid bets that happen when the 8 of us get together. $100 on black, $100 a hand for Pai Gow, or $500 on the Lady Boilermakers. But as long as this fits into my budget for that game, then I'm OK with it.
So now my viewpoint is that I want to win money. But I also know that my enjoyment is not only tied to coming out ahead, but also gambling a lot at different games. So by setting a hard loss limit, I'm able to enjoy myself as well as come out ahead.
Anyway, I wanted to comment a little more in depth about Eric's question about entertainment vs. making money on the Vegas trip. This has been a huge issue with me over the course of 11 years out in Vegas. I used to think that "Well, I have a budget and if I don't come home with anything, then so be it. As long as I had fun with my friends, I'm happy." This would allow me to handle losing sessions a little better and not become depressed when I came home with nothing. But after 10 years of this happening, I started to I realize that when I had this attitude, it made me very careless with my money and I had a tendency to stay at tables when I should of gotten up and walked away. This all changed last year.
When I was reading my posts from all of my trips last year, I found a common theme. I became more focused on my budget and I planned on making money. This resulted in much smaller losing sessions and my 1st actual winning trip. And when I looked at how I planned out those trips, it all came down to limiting the budget on those areas that cost me the most in years past, the Sportsbook and Roulette. I know that some people plan a budget for the entire trip, or by day. This never worked for me, so I actually had to budget by type of game.
Now that doesn't mean that I won't play them at all, but I have to have some type of controls and limits when I do. For example, in 2006 and prior, the Sportsbook would bleed me to death. I would have about 4 games that I liked. I would bet them heavy and then after a couple of drinks I would bet some more. Then if I started to lose, I would panic and bet even more games, or if I won, I would bet more games. No matter which way my day turned, I would be betting more and losing more at the end of the trip. In the end it would be a disaster. And I'm not a good college basketball handicapper. That's why I started a book. I also discovered that I could get just as excited with $20 on a game than $50 or $100. So knowing that I suck at college basketball and I enjoy the games just as much with a smaller amount, why would I just throw money away. So now, I set a lose limit of $600 for the trip, bet a smaller selection of games and that's it.
The same works for Roulette. I let myself have two full sessions at roulette. If I lose everything allotted during those two sessions, then that is it. But if I win, I will allow myself to play a little bit more at Roulette. But I won't roll that money over into another type of game to cover those losses. Once I hit my loss limit for a game, then that is it. And during the course of last year, I never hit my loss limit on a type of game since I was a little more careful with my money.
I also know that there is nothing that is going to stop the stupid bets that happen when the 8 of us get together. $100 on black, $100 a hand for Pai Gow, or $500 on the Lady Boilermakers. But as long as this fits into my budget for that game, then I'm OK with it.
So now my viewpoint is that I want to win money. But I also know that my enjoyment is not only tied to coming out ahead, but also gambling a lot at different games. So by setting a hard loss limit, I'm able to enjoy myself as well as come out ahead.
Mar 10, 2008
New term
"Backdoor action"
"Layup"
"Time out..TIME OUT"
Those have been some of the terms from years past out in Vegas. The new one I'm going to try for Vegas 08 is for unloading on a wager.
Example #1:
Eric: So who do you like in the Clemson-Gonzaga game tonight.
Derek: Ohhh man, I'm going to pop, lock, and drop it on the Zags!!!!
Example #2:
Wiz: Wow Derek, you haven't had any good cards lately.
Derek: Well my luck will change right now as I pop, lock, and drop it on this next hand.
I don't know. Any thoughts? I'm going to try it out here at work first to see how it goes over. "Derek, how much do you think this case is worth?" "Well, I think we should pop, lock, and drop it and get the hell out of going to trial on this one."
"Layup"
"Time out..TIME OUT"
Those have been some of the terms from years past out in Vegas. The new one I'm going to try for Vegas 08 is for unloading on a wager.
Example #1:
Eric: So who do you like in the Clemson-Gonzaga game tonight.
Derek: Ohhh man, I'm going to pop, lock, and drop it on the Zags!!!!
Example #2:
Wiz: Wow Derek, you haven't had any good cards lately.
Derek: Well my luck will change right now as I pop, lock, and drop it on this next hand.
I don't know. Any thoughts? I'm going to try it out here at work first to see how it goes over. "Derek, how much do you think this case is worth?" "Well, I think we should pop, lock, and drop it and get the hell out of going to trial on this one."
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