NFL Week 6: Ed Hochuli

It's simple. The Browns have been struggling: they need a stellar performance on Monday night to re-emerge as a player in the NFL.

Ed Hochuli has been struggling as well, and he needs a stellar performance this week just to re-establish himself as a solid referree in this league.

Will either happen? Both?

Was 27, StL 20. A letdown has to occur, right? That's two tough intra-divisional games on the road. Can they play 3 great games in a row?

TB 24, Car 20. This seems like an intra-squad scrimmage. Aren't these teams basically the same?

NYJ 31, Cin 15. I can't really explain how awful Ryan Fitzpatrick was 2 weeks ago for the Bengals at QB. And yet they still almost beat the Browns.

NO 27, Oak 13. The Saints are pissed after giving one away last week.

Min 24, Det 17. I don't the Vikes are that good - and can Detroit get blown out again? (don't answer that).

Ind 17, Bal 16. I Just don't like Flacco on the road.

Hou 20, Mia 17. I really have no idea. Will the Texans' meltdown last week be the end of their season? Or a rallying point?

Atl 23, Chi 20. I guess we will go with the hot team at home here.

Jax 27, Den 24. A hunch. Denver is nowhere near as good as 4-1, and the Jags are a desperate team.

Sea 20, GB 16. Will Charlie Frye get the start - and win! - for Seattle?

Phi 27, SF 13. Another desperate team. The Niners looked lost offensively last week.

Dal 28, Ari 23. I have no idea which Cowboy team will show up.

NE 27, SD 24, OT. Pssss- the league hasn't caught on yet - but the Chargers are just not that good.

Cle 24, NYG 23. Anderson to Heiden for a touchdown with 15 seconds left gives the Browns the win. What, were you expecting something else?

Best bets: 14 of them: Last week: 6-8-1, overall: 44-32-2.

StL +13

Car/TB Over 36.5

NYJ -9.5

NO -7

Oak/NO Under 47.5

Det +13

Mia/Hou Under 45

Atl +3

Jax +3

Sea -1

GB/Sea under 44.5

Phi -4.5

NE +4.5

NE/SD over 44

Ahhh...It pays off being managed by the Swiss

In steps the negotiator. At a time like this I'm proud to work for a company that is run by the conservative swiss financial firm.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122359713514921305.html?mod=testMod


And for those of you wondering, yes AIG's function was at the St. Regis next to my house. That place is so expensive that I've only been over there with my parents to have breakfast once. A simple omelet breakfast for the three of us ran $100 including tip. Carol, my parents, and I once tried to eat lunch there, but a simple hamburger was $32. I did not feel bad when we all got up and left while laughing at the prices. The place is a joke.

Just got a memo from our home office urging us to control the use of our copier machines and these assholes are going to the St. Regis. Its going to feel real good taking them over.

NY Times

Was in Starbucks this morning and read this article from the NY Times while waiting for my coffee. Thought it was a great read. Especially the all high and mighty Greenspan.

Biggest Loser

So I called Eric about his post below and threw out a challenge to him. Eric vs Layup in a Biggest Loser contest (since I couldn't do it at work). Loser has to pay for either a Columbus Blue Jacket or women's NCAA wager in March.

As always we encourage wagering on this, so below are the odds. I'm sure Lee, Jay, RRD, or Wiz will book the action.

Layup -720

Eric +600

Inside Gambling Note: My foot is healthy again and I'm starting to work out so I should be able to drop the weight pretty quickly. Also, I don't have three kids hanging all over me, so I have plenty of free time to work out. And finally, I know Eric's weakness, so Carol and I will be mailing him coupons for free Arby's roast beef sandwiches with extra horsey sauce.

Anyone else interested?

It's time to do something

I've got a lot of blogging to do - such as detailing my recent experiences with two Presidents and talking about the election and the "bailout" package that people suddenly say "it's not enough"....

but I wanted to put out something publicly that may spur me to action.

The baby and everything else going on has caused me to really neglect my health. I've now set record highs for weight - and it needs to be fixed. Now.

So - I am publicly committing to lose 15 pounds by Vegas.

(as you can see, I'm notstupid enough to put my actual weight here on the blog).

15 pounds lost in 5 months. 3 pounds a month.

It can be done, I think, with simple lifestlye changes.

1) Get more sleep. OK - scratch that. Maybe in January.
2) Eat a little better. The snacking off the kids' plate has got to stop. "Freddie? Are you going to finish that meatball? No? Well, don't mind if I do!"
3) Exercise more. Jog 3 times a week vs. the current 1-2 times a month.

Little changes - and I mean little, not these crash diet things, like " I'll eat only salads for a month!" - should be enough to lose 3 pounds a month.

We'll see how I do. If you see updates on the progress here, great! If not, that must mean I'm off the wagon.

(Maybe if I promise to run 5 miles every time the Browns lose.....that would get me to lose 30 pounds by the end of the season!)

Gus Johnson

There is one thing to listen to Gus Johnson announce March Madness or the NFL, but its another to listen to him announce MMA fighting on CBS. I really hope I wasn't the only one to hear this since it was classic. The main fight was between Kimbo Slice, the heavy heavy favorite against a nobody. Well the nobody knocked out Kimbo Slice and Gus went bezerk. I mean Gus announcing the Ohio State game two years ago Bezerk. I was so excited that I was running around the living in pure glee just listening to Gus. I ended up Tivo'ing it so I could replay for Eric tomorrow morning. Anyone who wants to hear, just give me a call.

Update: I found the Link. Enjoy the excitement of Gus Johnson.

NFL Week 5: Ron Winter

It's the Browns' bye week, so this Sunday/Monday will be a relaxing NFL weekend where all I ask is for decent games at 1, 4 and for the primetime games. No need for matinee matchups, but just a solid slate of games that I can enjoy throughout the afternoon.

Ron Winter, as an NFL referree, fits that description perfectly. He is a no-nonsense referree with no flash - he looks like an accountant - but does a solid job all around. He never seems to get the good games - in fact, I think he's done about 94 Browns game since the return in 1999 - but he always turns in a solid job. Just want I want this weekend - a solid slate of games.

(By the way, I may have to retract my hatred of Jerome Boger - in week 4, I wrote my preview regarding him, and he ended up having the Browns' game. He called the Bengals for offsides in a critical 3rd quarter Browns' possession; on that play, Derek threw an interception that was nullified. Jerome may have saved his career - but may have prolonged this purgatory we are in).

GB 24, Atl 10. I will continue to state that Atlanta can't play outdoors on the road.

Chi 20, Det 17. Yes, I can see an upset here, but this wil go down to the wire.

Ind 28, Hou 24. Houston will win one of these games soon. They play the Bengals and Browns later this year....

Car 24, KC 13. The Chiefs will revert back to normal this week.

Mia 23, SD 20, OT. Are you really going to trust Norv and the Chargers on the road?

NYG 28, Sea 24. Something just tells me this will be close.

Bal 19, Ten 16. Tennessee seems to be the automatic pick here - but how will they move the ball? You don't rush on the Ravens. And you really thinkn Kerry Collins will solve the Ravens' D? In Baltimore? God, I hate picking the Ravens.

Phi 27, Was 17. Philly has to be pissed over last week.

Den 31, TB 20. The key here? It's at Mile High.

Buf 27, Arz 20. I give up trying to figure this Cardinals team out.

Dal 31, Cin 13. Is a comment needed? Boy, SW Ohio is already hating on the Bengals - and we aren't even at Halloween.

NE 30, SF 20. Would you believe that in my fantasy league for church, my only quarterback on my roster is...Matt Cassel? The bye week will help him.

Jax 27, Pit 16. The Jaguars can move the ball through the air. Pittsburgh has no running backs, so they will have to throw (and the Jags are vulnerable). I see more scoring here than most.

NO 27, Min 20. This should be a great game. Can Adrian please score twice again?

Best bets: Last week: 8-7. Overall: 38-24-1.

GB -3.5

Atl/GB under 40.5

Chi/Det under 45.5

Mia +6

Sea +7

Sea/NYG over 43.5

Bal +2

Phi -6.5

Den -3

Buf + 1.5

NE -3

NE/SF over 41

Jax -5.5

Pit/Jax over 36

NO -3

6 favorites, 4 underdogs, 3 overs, 2 unders.

Fantasy Football

This is why I won't let Carol play fantasy football.

About two nights ago.

So I've been meaning to add my thoughts about the VP debate but got sidetracked by a crab bite. Last Tuesday while on vacation in Florida, I got bit by a blue crab. Nothing too major, but it was on my heal and it was pretty deep. It bled for a while but after enough salt water and beer, I thought that it had healed properly.

So one week later while at work, my foot started to hurt. It hurt so much that I could barely walk on it. When I finally got home that day, I took off my shoe and realized that my ankle had swelled to the size of a golf ball and my entire foot was giving off enough heat to make an omelet. Hmmm, that's not good. I must be having a reaction to the detergent? Well once the smart one (Carol) got home, she made the decision to go to the hospital.

You would think that doctors and nurses at a hospital has seen everything, but everyone was amazed that my foot got infected by a crab bite. We must of had 3-4 different nurses come into our room and act like they were there for a reason other than to just stare at the foot. Anyway, they gave me some heavy antibiotics and told me to go to my doctors the next morning.

Well that night and the next morning, the redness, heat, and swelling was slowly moving up from my foot and into my leg. When my doctor saw me the next day he was a little more concerned that this would turn into a staph infection. He ordered for me to have two freaking shots immediately. So the nurse comes in and we have this conversation.

Nurse: OK hun, I have two shots for you. Are you ready.
Derek: Sure, no problem. I had a tetanus shot last night. I should be OK.
Nurse: Oh...yeah, this is going to be a little more painful than that.
Derek: OK. Can you at least use my left arm since the right is still a little sore.
Nurse: Oh...yeah, this isn't going into your arm. These are going into both of your cheeks.
Derek: Um..OK.

So I stand up from the bed and I start to un-button my shorts and just lowered them slightly. I will never assume how far they want the pants down due to prior embarrassment of me dropping my shorts and them telling me that I should keep them up. Nothing more embarrassing than that. So this resulted in the nurse pulling down my pants a little with this conversation:

Derek: Is this low enough.
Nurse: No, but I will take care of it.
Derek: Ow...mmmm (while the nurse caught her ring on my butt hair)
Nurse: I'm sorry about that. I'll try not to pull any more of your hair.
Derek: Yeah there s a lot of it. That's OK.
Nurse: No. Its not bad. You should see my husband.....Wow, I probably shouldn't of said that. Very inappropriate. I'm sorry.
Derek: Its OK. Just get this over with.

So for the next several days I was going into the doctor's office getting shots in my butt. I have left the band aids on my ass so they know not to stick me in the same place. Last night was so uncomfortable just sitting on the couch.

But things are feeling better today and the infection is going down.


So my opinion on the VP debate:

1. I absolutely hate how they judge the performances based on expectations. Shouldn't it be measured on equal footing? "Palin did very well since she didn't make any mistakes." Um, really? Shouldn't that be expected? Haven't we learned our lesson on lower expectations during debates? I put more weight into these debates because I think this reflects the candidates ability to communicate with the public and persuade the public on what they want to do in the future. Part of the problem with the financial crisis is that nobody can get in front of the public and persuade everyone to calm down and that this $700 billion bill is the right thing.
2a. Looks- Did Biden get botox in his forehead? Whenever he raised his eyebrows, nothing would move on his forehead, but the edges would. Very annoying.
2b. Looks- I want cleavage. Just the top maybe. Something? And was she wearing square glasses?
2c. I'm setting the over/under on Obama's lead at 15 points before seeing Palin appearing in a spring dress.
3. Things that pissed me off: Biden- blaming the economy solely on the last 8 years of Bush. Give me a break. Everyone in both parties had their hand in the cookie jar and deserves full blame. Palin- Maverick, Maverick, Maverick, Hockey Moms, Joe Sick Pack, Maverick, Maverick. Please just stop. PLEASE!!!! And you could tell when she was talking about her personal experiences compared to when she was holding the party line. It got old quickly.
4. Avoiding the questions. This happened in the Presidential debate and it happened again with the VPs. The only person who is not avoiding the questions seem to be McCain.
5. In the end I thought both Biden and Palin both came off very well. One of the more enjoyable debates I've ever watched.

Random note

Any Chinese restaurant that serves Moo Shu Pork already wrapped in the pancakes should just shut their doors. Immediately.

I don't like the pancakes; I don't like that damn plum sauce. Just give me the meat and cabbage, please. I'm not at Taco Bell.

Gimme a break

So the original bailout of $700 Billion - with a B - did not pass. So what do our lawmakers do to pass this urgent, critical bill that will save Western Civiliazation?

Add $100 Billion of additional pork to the bill.

Again, I'd like to be convinced of the urgent need for this legislation - and Micah's post and a phone call from my brother-in-law is helping - but it is so hard to take it seriously when the government treats this like any other omnibus pork project.

Must read!!

THIS is why I don't like online poker.

Um....everyone needs to calm down.

So the House takes the feedback from Flotsam and Jetsam and downs the bailout bill. Good, I thought. Until I watched the market plummet. And plummet some more. And plummet once again. And now the blame game starts...which makes me sick.

I need to make up some money, since I'm still going to Vegas and I need to enough money to play the $5 tables at the Wynn. Shit, if everyone isn't back down to $5 tables in this economy, then I'm fucked. So I'm setting the betting line for the lowest point for the Dow at 8,955.36. I will be accepting all wagers.

NFL Week 4: Jerome Boger

Argh. The Cleveland Browns. The team is 0-3, and you hope for something good to come out from teh team on Sunday....but deep down in your heart, you know you are going to be disappointed.

It's like when one of the league's worst refs comes out of the tunnel for the game. You cross your fingers and hope he won't affect the game, but in the end, it's usually one critical call (that's questionable) that will get you.

Last year, it was the pushout of Kellen Winslow in Arizona. With no time left and the Browns down 6, Winslow caught the ball in the end zone but was (clearly?) pushed out by the defensive backs. Boger's crew made no call, and the game ended as a Browns loss.

Don't ask me if it was a pushout, I'm biased. Ask a Viking fan.

Not a lot of attractive games this week, huh?

Ten 23, Min 13. Minnesota really only scored 13 offensive points at home vs Carolina - a good but not great defense. I have Peterson on my fantasy team, and am not expecting a good week.

GB 27, TB 24. Tampa shot their wad last week, and I think Green Bay will pull this one out with 600 yards passing between the teams.

Az 20, NYJ 16. Am I crazy for picking the Cards on the road?

NO 31, SF 17. Boy, did NO get hosed. Really, how good are the 9ers? They lost to the Cards and beat Seattle (eh) and the Lions (ugh).

Den 27, KC 10. Something here smells fishy.....

Jax 27, Hou 13. Houston has to get off the schnide sometime, right? Is this a trap game for the Jaguars? If so, I'm falling in the trap too.

Car 23, Atl 13. Can Matt Ryan play on the road?

Buf 30, StL 20. I'm not sure why I think the Rams will score 20 at home - maybe the new quarterback (Green) will help them.

SD 28, Oak 13. Did the real Chargers finally show up last Monday? Boy, I'm scared of this pick now.

Dal 31, Was 17. Dallas looks unstoppable. And Washington may actually be a good team !

Chi 20, Phi 17. Just a hunch - Chicago pulls out the home win on a punt return.

Pit 24, Bal 17. Atleast 14 of these points will be from turnovers - one side or another.

Best bets this week: 15 of them. Last week: 9-6. Overall: 30-17-1.

Ten -3

GB +1.5

GB/ TB over 42.5

Az +1

Az/NYJ under 44.5

NO -4

Den -9.5

Den/KC under 47

Jax -7

Car -6.5

Buf/Stl Over 43.5

SD -7.5

Dal -10.5

Chi +3

Bal/Pit over 33.5

7 favorites to 3 underdogs. I don't feel very good about that.

Terrible

Just a quick comment from last night's debate. I thought that the question of "What are you going to cut from your wish list due to the financial question" was probably the best question I have ever heard in a debate. And both candidates sucked it up on that one. Obama side stepped the question, not once, no twice, but thrice, and McCain kept on going back to ear marks? This tells me that Obama will just say whatever is needed to get into the White House (like his nuclear comment), and McCain really doesn't know what to do and will turn it over to his advisers to handle.

And one last annoying comment. Both guys totally butchered so many names and words during the debate. Um...what is the Tollybon? And Paukistun?

As Eric and I discussed, I really didn't learn anything. How does that happen?

Quote of the day

Is here.

Quick Political/Economics Thoughts

I want to be honest on this blog....

1) McCain's idea to suspend his campaign and push for a postponement of the debate is a bad idea. It seems like a stunt in itself. I don't want to accuse McCain of ducking Obama, but....

I understand the concept. The nation is in crisis! We must provide leadership! However....

a) When did this become a crisis? Why now? Why is it immediate?
b) I would like to think that if it is truly a crisis, then all politicians on both sides of the aisle would act that way. I don't even see half the Republicans acting in crisis mode, let alone Pelosi & co.

2) McCain could certainly make a good commercial out of this - and a good point. Where is the Democratic Congressional leadership on this? You have Harry Reid out there last week saying "We don't know what to do". Great...these are the people currently in charge.

3) And hell if I know what to do. The bailout, to me, just seems wrong. If P&G made a bad decision and our stcok plummeted (like, say, IN 2000!) - no one would ever bail us out. Why these banks? Why should I care? I pay my bills, I have a responsible mortgage - part of me says screw them - let them fail.

I can see Wiz blowing his top here.......so make the case. Why should $700 Billion of taxpayer money go to saving some banks?

As long as FDIC doesn't go under - which, from all indications, it won't - then why should I care?

You can probably guess I didn't take an economics class in college....

Caption Contest?

Found on the Browns board tonight: This picture.

Caption:

"This man needs a real job."

Please - I agree. When is Romeo going to be released? What a disaster today. 0-3, with more tough games coming soon.

(oh, we are an early 4-point underdog to Cincinnati coming up. Oh joy).

I can't believe this season has gone down the toilet so fast.

NFL Week 3: Carl Cheffers

Well, with the electricity (and Internet) outage here in Cincinnati, combined with my Ryder Cup hangover - up at 4:30 am, home at midnight - I'm too tired to put any thought into these NFL picks. So - I'll use up my last freebie and introduce you to the other new NFL referree this season, Carl Cheffers. Coming soon to a NFL game near you! Prediction: He'll be doing the Detroit - San Francisco barnburner today.

Today's games:

Was 20, Az 17. Layup and I were talking - doesn't every Redskin-Cardinals game come down to a 54 yard field goal at the gun?

Min 24, Car 17. Gus Frerotte is an improvement. How does that sound, Redksins fans?

NYG 31, Cin 16. This is the suicide pick for the week.

Ten 21, Hou 20. I think the Texans are better than people think - they are the NFL's forgotten team right now.

Atl 20, KC 17. There is no reason why Atlanta should be favroed by 6.5 over any one!

NE 24, Mia 13. I'm very interested to see how Cassel progress this week and the next. If any one can get a read on him, now is the time to make money on the Patriots before Vegas catches on.

Buf 27, Oak 19. This game would scare me, if I was a Buffalo fan.

TB 20, Chi 13. Remember last week when I said Chicago was for real? Can I take that back?

SF 31, Det 23. Why don't I have J T O'Sullivan on my roster yet?

NO 31, Den 27. Upset of the week. Psssst - I don't think Denver is that good.

Sea 24, StL 20. The Rams will stay close. I think people are still overvaluing the seahawks.

Ind 20, Jax 17. Feels like a Vinatieri FG game at the end, no?

Phi 27, Pit 23. I have no idea what could happen here.

Dal 23, GB 20. Green Bay should try to keep the ball on the ground and the clock moving.

SD 27, NYJ 17. How can you top last week's MNF? By having a Favre-a-palloza.

Cle 24, Bal 13. This week, CNN Si had a list of the top 10 coaches that cold be fired at the end of the season. Romeo was not on it. IF the Browns lose here, he could be gone for Janice's birthday, Oct 6th. Then I won't have to get her a present.

Best bets: 15 picks this week: Last week: 10-5-1; overall; 21-11-1.

Az/Was under 43

Min -3

Car/Min over 37

Cin/NYG over 41.5

Hou +5

KC +6.5

Oak/Buf over 36.5

TB +3

SF -4.5

Det/SF over 46.5

NO +5.5

NO/Den over 51

StL + 9.5

Pit/Phi over 44

Dal/GB Under 51.5

2 bonus Ryder Cup picks:

Ben Curtis +130 over Lee Westwood

JB Holmes -110 over Soren Hansen

Week 2: Jeff Triplette

Well, this has been a strange NFL week, hasn't it? The fantasy fans out there had no idea what was going to happen with the Bal-Hou game until the last minute - and then once they made an annoucement, we're all left scrambling to figure out how to adjust our plans.

Kind of like a Jeff Triplette-officiated game! I consider him to be one of the worse officials out there. I may be biased, however - he was the official who threw the flag into Orlando Brown's eye in 1999 and knocked out our offensive lineman for the year.

Anyway, he did last monday night's game with the Packers-Vikes; I see that his crazy, flag-happy days aren't behind him yet! I believe there were 21 penalties called in the game.

On to the Week 2 picks:

Jax 24, Buf 13. Jacksonville is too good to fall to 0-2, aren't they?

Chi 19, Car 17. I now have a feeling that the Bears are for real.

GB 31, Det 20. Maybe I'm thinking this is like a 2002 NFC North shootout in the dome. However, Rodgers looked good against a good defense - how will he look vs the Lions?

Min 24, Ind 20. Indy looked off, and Minnesota showed they could play on offense in the 2nd half of the GB game.

Was 27, NO 23. The Saints are a terrible road team. That's the only reason why I'm picking the Skins.

NYG 23, Stl 13. I hope - for our suicide pool's sake - that the Giants lose.

KC 20, Oak 10. This may take the cake as the "Most Unwatchable Game" of 2008 - until the Bengals and Redskins play in Cincinnati later this year.

Ten 16, Cin 13, OT. This will be close, but Cincinnati will fall apart in overtime.

TB 31, Atl 13. Oh please, Mr Gruden, bring the kitchen sink against Ryan.

Sea 24, SF 16. I'm not so sure how good the Seahawks are anymore after last week's bomb.

Arz 27,Mia 17. Miami will lose a lot of games this year by 6-12 points (but not more).

NE 23, NYJ 20, OT. If Favre and the Jets pull this one out - hoo boy, look out for that Media Bandwagon.

Den 27, SD 24. I can easily see the Merriman-less Chargers falling to 0-2. When should we set the line for Norv's firing date? NOvember 9th?

Dal 24, Phi 23. This should be a classic.

Cle 27, Pit 24. I'm going through the motions in picking the Browns until they give me something to be fired up about.

Best bets: Last week: 11-6.

Jax -4.5

Chi +3

GB -3

Min +1.5

Was pick

NO/Was over 42

NYG/Stl under 42

KC -3

Oak/KC under 36

Ten +1

Ten/Cin under 37

TB -7

Atl/TB Over 37.5

Az -6.5

NE pick

Phi +6.5

Sunday and Saturday Mornings

Being married to a women who doesn't wake up early means one thing....I have a lot of free time in the morning to do whatever I want. Sometimes I work out early, but I tend to just hop on the computer, drink some coffee and watch TV. But since I hate the programming on ESPN on the weekend, I have come up with a pretty regular viewing schedule.

• I've become addicted to the English Premier League. I will watch whatever is on. This morning I was going to wager on Hall City over Newcastle, and I didn't pull the trigger. Then I just watched the crappy game anyway. I don't like soccer, but I absolutely love the announcers.
• F1 racing. This is if I can't sleep and wake up before 6:00am. This has now on my list of things to go see before I die. Those guys are going 200mph through these cities. Crazy.
• European golf- I think RRD and myself are the only two guys watching this on the golf channel.
• I heart the fine people on the Weather Channel. Always in shape and looking very sharp in their blue jackets and caps. I also enjoy their non weather programming.
• Fox Money programming- I have a secret crush on Steve Forbes and Ben Stein. If they told me to buy stock in the company that makes anal beads, I'm in.
• Looking for reruns of Veronica Mars. I love that show for some reason.

Obediah!

So I was listening to Mike and Mike yesterday morning driving to work (yeah, I know, some of you are already saying that's a mistake). They came back from a commerical break to the tune of "Build Me Up, Buttercup".

Both Mikes were singing along horribly to the tune, and so was I (all alone, in the car).

They then lamented the fact taht neither one of them could sing. Greenie then said "you know, I would bet that most people wished they could sing - I mean, sing on tune and sing well. I love to sing, and I know I am bad - I wish I could sing better".

I'd agree with that. I love to sing too, and I realize I am horrible.

Then Greenie went a step further with a confession.

"And you know what? If I had a professional singing voice - I can't believe I'm saying this - honestly? I'd rather sing songs on Broadway than be a rock star".

Golic made fun of him, of course, but you know what? I agree. I'm with Greenie here. If I had a choice, I'd choose the talent of singing Broadway than being belting out unintelligble rock lyrics.

And don't shake your heads out there....I know there's a least one frequent commenter of this blog that would agree with that - (Mr CardinalGlee Club, I'm looking at you).

Then he went one further.
"I mean, I would love to be able to play the role of Sky Masterson in Guys and Dolls. That would be the ultimate role for me"

Wow.....I'm right with Greenie on this. I picture myself as more of a Nathan Detroit kind of guy, but I could do Sky Masterson as well. It's too bad I was driving alone and couldn't share my rendition of Sky during Scene 10 of Guys and Dolls. Strike up the band!

My time of day is the dark time
A couple of deals before dawn
Where the street belong to the cop
And the janitor with the mop
And the grocery clerks are all gone

And the smell of the rainwashed pavement
Comes up clean, and fresh, and cold
And the streetlamp light
Fills the gutter with gold

That's my time of day
My time of day

And you're the only doll I've ever wanted to share it with me

(speaking) Obediah!

[Sarah] Obediah? What's that?

[Sky] Obediah Masterson, that's my real name. You're the first person I've told that to.

I've never been in love before
Now all at once it's you
It's you forever more

I've never been in love before
I thought my heart was safe
I thought I knew the score

But this is wine, that's all too strange and strong
I'm full of foolish song
And out my song must pour

So please forgive this helpless haze I'm in
I've really never been
In love before........

Speak for yourself, Layup

I Like Ike!

Sorry, couldn't resist...this was the first thing that came to my mind.

We don't want IKE

Best case scenario, I get to spend two months down in Texas. Worst case scenario, I will be looking for a new job. This hurricane if it is a CAT 3 and hits Houston, would be just as bad as a severe earthquake to LA.

Cheer up, Patriots fans....

... I could send you clips from Browns games in 2000 where Spergon Wynn was our quarterback. Now THAT is something you could cry about.

I understand you are in mourning about Brady's injury. I can relate - I felt the same way when Tim Couch went down in 2001....and 2002.....and 2003. But we got up off the mat and played on! Played on to a 5-11 record.

Anyway, people are dancing on the grave of the Patriots because they dismiss Belichick and "he has not won a playoff game without Tom Brady". This is not true! He has won a playoff game without Brady - and the star of that game is still available!

Vinny Testaverde led the Belichick-led Browns to their last playoff win back on January 1, 1995. It seems like yesterday! And as you know, Vinny was a quarterback in this league last year.

Now all you need is a phone call, and that Belichick-Vinny magic can work for the 2008 Patriots.

Thoughts about Palin

Well, it's been a exciting two weeks in the presidential contest, no question. And the race has been turned on its end by McCain's selection of Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska. I've got a lot of thoughts about this and they are all rambling through my head....so I apologize if they all aren't coherent.

First, this is rebranding at its best. Look, it's clear now that the Bush brand of Republicanism is not good. Politicians with an R next to their name are running scared.
So how does one re-brand the Republican label? Well, figure out what people don't like about the current brand and fix it.

We can debate about this for hours, but I believe that people turned against the R label because of:
- corruption/scandals (think Larry Craig and Abramoff)
- high spending/deficits (not in line with traditional R principles)
- lack of "humanity" and not being in touch (Katrina).

I don't think it's the war - especially now with the Surge working well.

McCain can rightfully claim that he can turn around the party on those first two planks - corruption and spending - but the third one is iffy. How can a 72-year-old white man show that he can relate to the masses?

Well, enter Palin. She complements McCain on the first prinicple and clearly shows that she is "in touch". So what do we have now? The party can now be rebuilt around:
- strong defense
- lower spending
- driving out corruption
- in touch and responsive to needs
and this rebranding has some substance behind it - since McCain /Palin have a track record on some of those issues.

It will be a long process - but it is the start of a divorce from some of Bush's domestic policies. This separation process may not be successful in 2008 - I still think this election will turn on whether the US think Obama is ready and willing to embrace him - but this rebranding could be fantastic in 2010 and beyond.

Look- those principles that McCain/Palin is trying to rebrand the party on are very similar to Newt's contract with American in 1994. 2010 could be a 1994-type election if Republican's nationwide embrace those planks.

So - again - why Palin? Well, she can be the face for those new principles for the next decades. McCain has - at most - 10 years in the public eye. Who will be the Reagan and carry the banner for decades more? Palin is being set up to be a spokeswoman for these principles - almost like a Barry Goldwater. The 2008 election may not be won, but the base for a successful rebirth of a party can form around these thoughts.

I don't think you can pick a more effective spokesperson than Palin. And yes, that has to factor into the equation in picking a VP candidate - in effect, picking another national candidate to carry the banner.

Some more thoughts:

2. Palin is an excellent pick as she walks the line between social conservatism and drawing in working women. I am amazed on how this pick has woken up the conservative base. Palin - through her social conservative views - is starting to be a cult hero to conservative women. These women weren't even sure they were going to vote this fall! This is huge.

And Palin can be seen as appealing to independent, working women....those women that are married, have children, and have a career - those women who share some child care duties with their husband as the two of them juggle day care responsibilities. THose women - I guess you can call them "soccer moms" - voted Democratic in 2006 but voted for Bush in 2004 and 2000. Palin appeals directly to them.

And where are they located? Butler, Warren, Medina, Geauga counties in Ohio, Macomb in Michigan...the suburban counties in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and northern Virginia. These are not the Clinton feminists that Palin is trying to go after.

The pick of Palin - in one fell swoop - get the social conservative on board and also should swing some soccer moms to McCain. Brilliant.

3. It's amazing how easy you can make your strategy when you know the opponent's response. For a golf analogy: if you are in match play, and know that every time you get up and down from off the green to tie a hole, it drives your opponent crazy - and that craziness causes him to swing harder and harder.......well, wouldn't you try to miss greens? Wouldn't you try miss greens, knowing you can get up and down and purposely sending your opponent off the deep end?

I swear I think the Republicans know this. The media and most liberal democrats are predictable. We can guess what their reaction is going to be - "a woman governor from Alaska? She's a dumb hick that can't possibly hold up in the national media spotlight. And besides, she has 5 kids! She can't do the job!"

Well, if you can predict that reaction, you can be one step ahead of them by preparing and strategizing against that. Her speech onWednesday was good - boiler plate attack dog stuff - but since the story was the "dumb hick" angle, she looked impressive.

By the way - if you just read the speeches and didn't know who made them, you would think the historical speech was McCain's. It is shocking to hear the presidential candidate of a party effective bash much of the party's record over the past few years. It was -as I said earlier- a start of a divorce from 2001-08.

4. For all these reasons, Palin is a great political pick. And I think that's what drives some on the other side nuts. They expect to win this election, and in their eyes can see no way how the Republicans can or should win. As a result, they expect the Republicans to almost concede - that's what a pick of Pawlenty or another white male would have been.

But the Republicans are actively giong to try to win this election - that's what the pick of Palin signifies. This, I believe, is what is scaring Democrats. Some believe - after 8 years of Bush - the Presidency should automatically be handed to them. It's not, and they will have to make a case. That's not what they were expecting - and that's why the Palin pick took them by surprise.

Can't Wait For March Madness!

I can't believe we are already in the sporting doldrums of February. The Super Bowl has ended, pitchers and catchers are just reporting, so baseball is still a ways away. Even the NBA players don't really care about these games right now. We are just waiting for March Madness and then baseball's Opening Day to bring the sports calendar back to a more exciting place.

What's that? Its still September?? Football season didn't just end? Hmm. Thats strange, because it sure feels like it...

Its like Christmas morning

I'm so excited. I was telling Carol last night that I wasn't too sure I could get to sleep since I was so excited about today. I haven't been this amp'd for the football season ever. It might be due to the A's being 30 games back, or it might be because:

1. Gambling on something real. I'm tired of hunting down value in Spanish Soccer and Track and Field. Its getting old hearing gambling tips on tennis from Wiz that never pays off.
2. Fantasy Football- I trimmed down to two teams this year. My old Farmer's Insurance League in Baltimore and my old softball league. I'm pretty excited this time since I spent more than one hour prepping.
3. Sunday mornings are now fun again. Wake up around 7:00am have some coffee, make final decisions on what to bet on, go for a run, then head over to the local bar to watch the games. Now I got Ben doing it this year along with his old neighbor Mike who is from Chicago. Should be fun.

So I was thinking about my predictions for the season and I'm having a tough time picking the AFC. If you buy into the theory that 2-3 new teams will make the playoffs, then we have some tough decisions to make.

AFC: Pats, Steelers, Chargers, Titans, Jaguars, and the Colts
NFC: Cowboys, Packers, Seahawks, Bucs, Giants, and the Skins

So the Pats will win the East and I'm going with the Jags in the South. Colts will hit the wild card, but we will have 3 new teams making the playoffs.

1. Denver- Yes the Broncos. This is more of a vote of no confidence against the Chargers than anything else. And yes, this is the year that Norv will take this team down.

2. Houston- Andre Johnson is the most under-rated player in the game right now. If he can stay healthy and their RB situation gets set, I see them making huge strides.

3. Browns- Sportsguy rips the trades that they made, but I don't understand why. Run defense was terrible and they got two top notch inside guys. I think that they will hold steady at 10-6 and win the division.

NFC: GreenBay, Cowboys, and Seattle will make the playoffs. Green Bay is the best team in the NFC, not the Cowboys.

1. Eagles- Yes this seems like the popular pick, but they will take the place of the Giants this year.

2. Carolina- I just hate TB. Carolina will be without Smith at the beginning, but they will be just fine. Solid running game, solid defense, and solid coach. I like them.

3. Lions- Wildcard bound. Book it.

Superbowl- Green Bay - Pats.

NFL Week 1: The Refs!

We're back for our weekly installment of predictions for the NFL games. This year's themes: introducing you to the NFL Head Referees in place for 2008! There are 17 head referees in the league -and 17 weeks to the season. How about that!

Week 1 brings us Al Riveron. Never heard of him? Neither have I! He is one of two that have been newly promoted to the head ref position this year. So he's a completely unknown quantity - just like the Week 1 games. We have no idea who is good, who is bad, overrated, underrated, or what. Everyone is presumed average until proven otherwise - and every ref is presumed innocent until guilty of a game-changing call.

(My guess is that he will be doing the Det-Atl barnburner....but watch him show up in Cleveland tomorrow.)

On to the picks:

Det 27, Atl 13. This is similar to Thursday night's game....I'm not sure what Detroit is going to do this year, but Atlanta should be in the bottom 3 of the league.

Sea 17, Buf 16. I don't get all the Buffalo love. "this is their year! 10-6!" a lot of people say. Why? Trent Edwards?

NYJ 24, Mia 16. Some agonizing here. Yes, Chad Pennington knows the Jets playbook - but on offense, can he execute? No. And do you think the NFL/CBS will let Favre lose game 1?

(By the way - Jets were 4-12 last year. The Dolphins were 1-15. So yes- CBS puts their "A" broadcasting team on the opener between the two this year! And for all those groaning that the Browns got 5 prime time games, imagine how many Jets games you will be forced to see this year....)

NE 31, KC 10. Is there something to Brady's foot injury that we don't know about?

Tampa 27, NO 24. Should be a great game, down to the wire. I think New Orleans needs a couple weeks and then they should be firing on all cylinders.

Philly 27, St Louis 20. I have no idea. Really.

Pit 27, Hou 17. Is Houston really that good enough to hang with Pittsburgh on the road? I would love to say yes....but I can't.

Ten 20, Jax 17, OT: A match of two playoff teams from the past year. This is the game that Nantz/Simms should be doing.

Bal 16, Cin 13. I can't believe I am taking Joe Flacco on his opening game rookie year.....but have you seen the Bengals at all? No O-line, no defense....this will be one ugly game.

SD 27, Car 24. A wild hunch here... and I think the Panthers will stay in it until the end.

SF 23, Az 20. Maybe the 49ers that we all expected last year will finally show up one year later.

Ind 27, Chi 10. I think the Bears will be just as bad on offense as they were last year. And why again are many people dissing the Colts?

GB 24, Min 17. I'm supposed to believe in Tavaris Jackson? People doubt the Browns because of Derek Anderson - which I can understand - but they think Tavaris will lead the Vikes to the playoffs? Hello?

Oak 23, Den 20. I am certainly not on any Jay Cutler baandwagon.

Cle 27, Dal 25. In real life, Romeo calls timeout and Dawson nails the 27 yard FG with no time left.....

Best bets: currently 1-0:

Det -3

NYJ -3

NE -15.5

TB +3

TB/NO over 42.5

Pit -6.5

Ten +3

Bal +1.5

Bal/Cin under 37.5

Car +9.5

Car/SD Over 41.5

SF +2.5

Ind -9.5

Ind/Chi Under 44

GB -2

Oak +3

Oh yeah, by the way...

the NFL season start tonight!

Let's begin our annual attempt to have a winning wagering season (3 out of the last 4!) with Pick 1 of the 2008 NFL year:

NY Giants 27, Washington 10. I'm not sure if the Giants are going to slip or not, but I have no faith in this Washington team.

Best bet:

NY Giants -4.5.

My actual nightmare

First, thanks to all for the kind notes after our son, Martin Kasper, was born. Everyone is doing well and we are adjusting to life (again) with newborn!

But life with a newborn involved little sleep. Martin got up around 1 last night, and Janice took him to the other room. She kept him in there on the rocker for most of the early morning. So I actually slept from 1:30 until I woke up from a nightmare. Here's the dream I had:

Browns down, 25-24, with 20 seconds left but we are driving at the Cowboys 30. We have 4th and 2 at the 30 - with one timeout left. We decide to go for it.

Anderson hits Winslow over the middle at the 15; Winslow runs to the 10 and is tackled with 9 seconds remaining.

Tick...Tick...tick....9....8...7...6..5....4...3...2...1......

No one calls timeout. The game ends; we lose, 25-24.

Hoo boy, did my anti-Romeo feelings from 2006 get all fired up again!

Any psychologists want to help intrepret this one?

Wow, looks just like Eric

So for one day lets put aside on VP issues and take a momment and congratulate Eric, as his third boy was born this morning. I had some people there at the hosptial taking pictures and wanted to share. Looks like we have our 8th for Vegas.

Veepstakes, part 2!

Now let's review the VP choices on the Republican side. I am trying to see if I can clear my schedule to head to Dayton on Friday to see McCain unveil his VP pick for the first time publicly.

However, I'm becoming more and more convinced that this election - in general - is not about McCain and what he can promise/say/do. The election will ultimately be decided by the Hillary Clinton primary voters. Will they come home - come back home to the Democratic party? Or will they stay home and not voter out of anger/apathy/sickness on Election Day? That is the #1 question for the next 3 months.

(I'm wathcing Hillary's speech now - so far, an absolute bore, except for one zinger on Bush/McCain. "It makes sense that they have their convention in the Twin Cities! They're practically twins!" I didn't do it justice here, but that line is so far the only highlight.)

Anyway, can McCain pick a VP that may change Hillary Clinton voter dynamic - and exacerbate the split in the Democratic party? Or will he choose a VP that may influence one or two key states in an election that may be excrucriatingly close? Eric's odds:

Tim Pawlenty (MN): 5-1. A Republican governor of a somewhat blue state. I'm not sure he himself can overcome the R label and turn Minnesota from blue to red. He is a social conservative, semi-young, and telegenic, very much like Bayh. A national unknown, however. McCain would choose him if- and only if - he'd guarantee Minnesota for McCain. And I don't think he can.

Joe Lieberman (I-CT): 6-1. Wow. This would turn the race on its end. However - ask yourself this: does McCain feel he is behind enough to take this sort of a risk? If McCain was 8-10 points down (think Dole, 96), this pick would make sense. I don't think he needs to take this risk.

Rob Portman (OH): 20-1. Bush's budget director, and a former congressman from Ohio (I think from Don's district)! Very popular in SW Ohio, but that doesn't mean he can carry the state. Too unknown, no benefits.

Mike Huckabee (AR): 10-1. He's making a strong move as we come to the home stretch! What a way to thank your pirmary "opponent" (if you can call him that) by tag-teaming with McCain against Romney. And with McCain's apparent weakness on economics, this pick could shore up the blue collar vote that usually would be Democratic but don't like Obama.

But - ugh. A lot of downsides, especially to the socially moderate/progressive.

Meg Whitman (CA): 20-1. The former eBay chairwoman. I know nothing about her, but she has been mentioned as a possible candidate to shore up the domestic program of McCain. And the word "eBay" may help with the age issue for McCain. But still - a political novice? (and that's being nice?)

Tom Ridge (PA): 30-1. We have an inside source on this blog that has heard firsthand that Ridge will not be picked. Should we believe him?

Mitt Romney (MA): 3-1. I guess, by process of elimination, the front runner. The political calculation positives are pretty strong: the Mormon issue may affect him negatively in some states, but it is a strong positive in states like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, all battleground states that McCain needs. The Romney name is also popular in Michigan, and may turn the dial toward McCain a few points.....

but there's something about him I don't like. Too smooth, too polished, too telegenic. He seems like a car salesman. And that's a turnoff.

The Field: 1-1. I am more and more convinced McCain will choose somebody not on the above list. Newt Gingrich? Bobby Jindial (LA)? John Kasich (OH)? Carly Fiorina (Hewlett Packard)? Michael Steele (MD)?
There's a darkhorse out there somewhere. Where?

Management Question #16

So I have a little dilemma here at the office. We have a local guy who lives out of his van that parks in our parking lot at night. He has a nice big van that he lives in and a small red car that he drives. Everyday at 6:00pm, he pulls into our parking lot and parks both vehicles near the back portion of our building. He is usually very good about moving both vehicles by 7:00am. But this morning his red car was still parked in our parking lot. So I ended up driving next to his van (parked right outside of our parking lot) and honked the horn for a little bit hoping that he would wake up. No go. So the question is do I go out there and knock on the van door and ask him to move his vehicle? I don't want him to think that I've become soft, but at the same time I don't want him to get pissed at us and then vandalize our building after hours.

My staff really doesn't care and actually feeds this guy from time to time, which pisses me off. The homeless are like seagulls. You feed them once and they swarm you and won't go away. My staff is very soft. During last Thanksgiving, another homeless man built an amazing cardboard house out by our dumpster. He completed it on Wednesday afternoon right before Thanksgiving, complete with a couple of matresses and a random couch. I was going to go out there to take it down, but my staff stopped me since it was right before Thanksgiving. I gave in then and allowed it to stay up until Monday, and now I'm probably the laughing stock of the homeless community.

So do I make a point and get his car towed this morning?

Aaaah! Too Much Information!

To kick off our convention coverage, I'd like to share what Bob Schieffer said in his closing remarks on "Face the Nation" this past Sunday.

Schieffer was reminiscing about covering conventions in the past, and he remarked that this would be "his 11th Democratic convention" that he covered - and he has also covered 10 Republican conventions so far.

"The first Democratic convention I covered was the convention in Chicago in 1968, which was memorable for me. It was memorable not because of the proceedings on the convention floor, but rather because 9 months after the day the convention started, my first daughter was born."

Aaah! Aaah! My ears! My eyes! The forced vision of Bob Schieffer having sex is quite a wake up call to my system.........next thing you know, Madeleine Albright will mention that August 28, 2008, is the 60th anniversary of the day she took a young Lloyd Bentsen behind the Capitol steps and (ed- this post has been terminated. )

Let's play veepstakes!

Today's game: the Democrats. Who will Obama pick as his VP choice?

Before we start, let's give some credit to McCain for finding a message that seems to be working. Tying Obama to random celebrities - Paris, Britney, etc. - is pure genius. It plays directly to the middle-aged white voter who still is unsure about Obama, and puts into words the hesitation. It also occured right after the time Obama was on his Europe trip and made a speech in Germany in front of 200,000 people.

One piece of advice my Dad gave me - if you want to attack something that seems unassailable, attack their strengths. Example: Burger King in the 80s. They wanted to attack McDonalds. How? They were the king - burgers fast and fresh. How do you attack them in an ad?

Answer: By attacking the fact they were fast. Why were they fast? Because they made the burger one way. You can't get it any other way. But what if you wanted a burger...your way? And a slogan was born.

McCain is doing exactly that. Obama is very popular - almost too popualr. He's attacking that image effectively. And (by chance!) where is Obama giving his acceptance speech next Thursday? Why, at Mile High Stadium in front of 75,000 people! This just adds to the celebrity/rock star label that McCain has given him. Obama has got to be careful not to provide more ammunition for that image.

Anyway, what is the end result of that ad campaign? An unquestioned tightening of the race - one poll shows McCain up 5 right now - and in the overall electoral vote count, McCain is seen to be ahead, 274-264.

There is no question that we are at the high point in McCain's campaign right now (so far?). All the toss up states are leaning McCain's way right now - Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, and so on. The good news for Obama is that it is very hard to see how Obama loses any more states. If Michigan and/or Pennsylvania start to turn to McCain, this thing could turn into a rout.

But for now, Obama should have a floor of 264 votes. The big question he needs to answer - given the current themes of the campaign and the current electoral map, can a VP pick influence either?

Some choices, with Eric's proposed odds:

1. Tim Kaine (VA): 10-1. Virginia's popular governor has been listed as a possibilitiy. Could this pick swing Virginia back to the Democrats? However - and I feel bad for saying this - I can't believe that America would elect a VP with that haircut. I'm sorry -some images do matter.

2. Joe Biden (DE): 4-1. Picking Biden would help close the "experience" issue Obama may have - Biden has 30+ years of experinece in the Senate and extensive foriegn policy credentials. However, he is the consummate Washington insider - would that hinder Obama's message of change?

One other thing - there was a presidential candidate that didn't have a lot of foreign policy items on his resume. He chose a VP who had a lot of congressional experience, various foreign policy responsibilities, and was seen as a sharp debater/good speaker.

It's not hard to draw parellels between Biden and Cheney.

3. Kathleen Sebelius (KS): 20-1. The chic rumor going around now - the Kansas governor would help with the female vote and would add to the "change" campaign them. And Sebelius is a conservative Democrat, and certainly can not be confused as a liberal. But would it deliver Kansas? The 5 electoral votes - with the current map - would make the election projected to be 269-269. (And, at this time, a tie goes to the House, which assuredly should remain Democratic).

And do we really know anything about her? What vetting is going on right now? A risky pick.

4. Dianne Feinstein (CA): 7-1. I'm surprised she's not talked about more often. The more moderate of the California senators, Feinstien has experience in Congress (16 years in the Senate) and has served on foreign policy committees, I think. She was a Clinton ally, so that may help mend some bridges. She is Jewish, but that issue should be put to rest given Lieberman's run in 2000 (and it may help in Florida). Not a bad pick.

5. Hillary Clinton (NY): 40-1. What, is Obama insane?

6. Evan Bayh (IN): 3-1. I think this is the smart pick. Bayh is the conservative senator from Indiana, and the Bayh name is powerful in that state. I would have to predict that the 11 electoral votes would swing toward Obama - meaning McCain would need another state to win. He has almost 10 years of experince in the Senate, and serves on the Armed Forces committee; he is 53 years old but looks younger, so can effectively look the part of "change".

7. The Field: 2-1. There's always a surprise lurking around the corner. As I was walking the dog, I tried to think about the last several VP picks and whether they were in the running for a VP and talked about before the announcement:

84: Ferraro: a complete surprise, and not a good choice. She did not deliver her home state.

88: Quayle (R): another complete surprise

88: Bentsen (D): I think he was mentioned on a short list as a possible balance for the northereastern Dukakis

92: Gore: yes, he was mentioned. Gore ran for President 4 years before!

96: Kemp: another surprise, not in name (since many knew him) but was not talked about as a VP candidate.

00: Cheney (R): medium surprise. He led the VP search committee - and then came back to Bush and said "nope, no qualified candidates out there....except moi!"

00: Liebermann (D): boy, it seems weird now putting a "D" next to his name! I think this was a small surprise.

04: Edwards: no surprise here.

So about half the time the pick comes out of left field.....will it happen again this week?

I say no - I say the pick is Evan Bayh. Your thoughts?

Seriously?!?!

Trampoline is a SPORT?

How does this make the Olympics and Softball is getting the axe?

This is stupid! Which Canadian was better? WHO CARES!

One more golf tournament

The last individual event for the 2008 season is upon us tomorrow. Don, Craig and I will be playing in the Cincinnati Met Mid-Am, the amateur championship for those 25 and older. Miraculously, I finished 4th last year.

Lines for tomorrow's first round action (the final 18 are on Tuesday):

Eric favored by 1 over Don
(this was a pickem until Saturday's head to head matchup)

Craig favored by 5.5 over Don

Craig favored by 4.5 over Eric

Three person special: Don, Craig and Eric's score:
Over / under set at 239.5

Results should be posted at gcga.org later in the day Monday.


And what else is tomorrow night? The Browns on Monday Night Football! I haven't posted too much on here about the Browns yet because I don't know what to say. I am nervously optimistic about this season. We are talented enough to go 11-5 or so, but if a couple of things go wrong, this could snowball into a 6-10 season.

We have so many games this year that I could see us winning or losing even if we play well:
- home vs Dallas
- both Pittsburgh games
- at Washington
- home vs NY Giants
- home vs Indianapolis
- at Tennessee
- at Jacskonville
- at Philadephia

and I don't think we are good enough (yet) to assume 4-0 vs Baltimore and Cincinnati.

Bottom line: check back with me on Sept 13. While the first game vs. Dallas is important - and I will be elated if we win and disappointed if we lose - the second game at home vs Pittsburgh is the big big big test.

If we win, expect 3 days of jubliant posts on this board.
If we lose, I will be distraught.

These posts will keep coming....

Until we agree that this blog will officially endorse John McCain as president.

First, we found out that John McCain is a avid craps player.

Now, we find out that ABBA and Neil Diamond make it into McCain's Top 10 Songs list.

Gees, people, what more do we need?

Sunday afternoon ramblings

Some random followups on golf and the olympics:

1. Finished third in the club championship. I thought I was in the lead after the first round until a 65-year old greenskeeper shot 72 after I left the clubhouse.
So I started 5 back, got to within 3, and then boarded the bogey train for a while and finished third.

The 65-year-old? He finished 9-6-9 on 16, 17, and 18 (par 4-4-5) and finished behind me. Tough, tough, tough to watch it all unfold. I was speechless.

2. Then played at the Ohio Publinx at Cook's Creek. The driver has been my worrisome club all year, so what do I do? I hit 11 of 14 fairways....and shoot 85. Could not hit any irons, and I was off with my pitches. The greens were rock hard, and I had trouble adjusting.

The 2nd round brought the complete opposite - through 11 holes, I hit 4 fairways, but made everything. I had 14 putts through 11 holes and was even for the round.

Then I had a block, leading to a triple - and then couldn't find a swing. Finished 8 over. Ugh. The problem: I have no reliable "pressure" swing anymore - the swing you need just to get the ball out there. I used to have this 230-yard gentle fade that I could atuomatically hit under any situation. Not anymore. Ugh.
The putting was phenomenal - the shortest putt I missed was a downhill 20 footer. Everything inside that was in the hole.

I'm taking a break for a week - to flush the system.

3. This golf pool that Layup and I are in, however - this is starting to be an unhelathy obsession. This pool requires you to pick a golfer for each tournament, and you can only pick a golfer once all season. Out of 120 or so people, Layup and I are 2nd at this point, a mere $1900 back of first.

I feel like a pastor of a Church - my off days are Monday; on Tuesday, it's reasearch day; Wednesday involves a 30-45 minute phone call with Layup as we argue over the pick - and then the tournament starts Thursday.

Our pick this week is Retief Goosen - and the leader (and the person directly behind us) has Phil. Entering the 4th round, Goosen is one back of Phil.

4. Go Ben! If Goosen can't win, let's see the boy from Ostrander win his second major.

5. Olympics fever is in this house now. Two pieces of evidence:

a. I actually had Freddie and Warren watching Women's basketball yesterday - Mali vs New Zealand! They chose to root for the Kiwis and were dancing around the room when they made a 3 pointer.

b. For the opening day of men's basketball, I entered in a 6-team teaser:
Russia
Spain
Croatia
Lithuania
Germany
USA

6-for-6! Winner!

Yes, I am insane.

No More She-manny-gans

I'll be the first to say it - I loved the Manny Era in Boston. He was there for 7 1/2 years, and was a huge part of two World Series teams. Sure, he quit on the team in 2002 and 2006 and did some quirky things, but he always entertained you. Some of my favorite Manny moments:

- jacking a home run and standing at home plate with his arms raised long enough for a bird to land on his helmet

- high fiving a fan after making a catch (and doubling a runner off)

- taking a leak in the Green Monster bathroom while the game was going on

- coming out of said Green Monster holding a sign that read Manny being Manny

- cutting off Johnny Damon's throw in CF (to the SS) from about 12 feet away

- Dropping a routine flyball then after saying "Oh well there goes my Gold Glove. I guess I'll have to go for the Silver or Bronze."

- Going out to left field with a water bottle in his back pocket

- Manny on Jay Leno talking about his slide in the World Series vs Colorodo. Manny is talking about the play (as they are cueing up the highlight to show on the screen), and he says "Oh I was definitely safe, no doubt about it, look here Jay, look here. (they show the play), Oh I guess I was out.

- While rehabbing in Pawtucket (where he spent almost a MONTH, seriously what big leaguer wants to spend a month in AAA????) he slid into third base and somehow lost a huge diamond earring. The players and umps were all looking for his earring. He told them to not worry about finding it, it was "only" a $25,000 diamond.

- Running on the bases and always flipping his helmet off as if once he discarded the helmet he would turn into Vince Coleman on the bases.

Now having said ALL THAT... they had to move him, it was time. Somehow, it went from quirky and silly, to just boorish and selfish. He was just different this year, knocking a 62 year old RS Employee to the ground, punching Youkilis in the dugout, were signs that things in Mannyland were stranger than ever. Once he sat out the two games (against King Felix and Joba), that was it. He was really pissed that the Red Sox wouldn't tell him whether they would pick up his option (for $20 mil) in 2009, so he was threatening to shut it down. I actually think the Sox did very well to get Jason Bay back for Manny and two guys who were very expendable. BTW, what were the Marlins thinking? They could have had Manny for free and they passed? Strange.

I am sure that Manny will have a strong second half for LA, and I am sure that the Red Sox will be better off without Manny. I am also sure I'll miss watching him play every day.

Is Layup faster or slower than this?

Found this classic on You Tube. No, it is not in slow motion.

Ah, memories.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jem453SaSpU

Random Thoughts

Well, it's been a while - hello there! It's been crazy at work, and I am finally getting over the "Big D" I acquired from my trip to Mexico. Yesterday, I finally had my first solid bowel movement in about 10 days.

Some random thoughts:

1) First of all, if you haven't heard, Layup is fine after the earthquake in CA. I would say something calling him a wimp since he was scared over a measly 5.7 quake - but then, this spring in Ohio we felt a 3.1 quake and it was the lead story on our local news for 4 days with plenty of old women calling in "reporting" the quake. I love local news.

2) Mexico: it was very enjoyable to watch the home run derby in Spanish rather than put up with Mr. Blowhard, Chris Berman.

3) The Browns will take the field for a preseason game in 9 days. Wow. Football is almost here.

4) Why do I hate Jim Nantz? Well, this should be the only exhibit I need. Fourth quarter play, week 11, Cleveland - Pittsburgh. Watch and listen to the call. He just sucks the life out of any excitement on the field. Can you imagine if Dick Enberg was on the call? Gus Johnson? Joe Buck? Dick Stockton? Ian Eagle? Sam Rosen? All would be much much better than this.

What if Nantz called our gambling action in Vegas? He'd put us to sleep. If Gus was there, he'd be egging Kermit to get up and slug Wiz after doubling on 6....

5) Speaking of Sam Rosen, I still submit he is the most underrated play-by-play voice out there doing the NFL. He's on FOX, and there's no chance of him doing a Browns game this year. (The only two games that FOX would carry are week 1, when Dallas comes in - a game undoubtedly called by Joe "That's Outrageous" Buck and Mr. Cowboy himself, Troy Aikman), and the NYG game - but that's a MNF game). It's too bad. His call of the Seattle game last year was superb.

(that's the game no one else saw, since it was on at the same time as the NE-Ind game).

6) Coming soon: my opinion of each NFL head referee! A sneak preview: Ron Winter is not as bad as you think he is, while I cringe if Mike Carey is doing my game.

7) Golf week 08 starts Saturday, with the defense of my club championship crown and then the Ohio Publinx, this year at Cook's Creek. Monday's traditional practice round have all 4 participants confirmed, as Dad and I will square off against Steve and Kermit.

I feel like I'm playing the best golf of the year, which is not saying much at all. Expectations are low.

Oil

Ok, I promise that my next post will be something non political related. I don't have a good bathroom story, so I guess you all are stuck with this, but after reading Eric's and Laura's comments about gas I wanted to make some comments of my own.

First, I tend to agree with Laura and $4+ gas is actually good. I do agree that this does push people to conserve more (I carpool 3 days a week) and provides an incentive to the private sector to push for alternative fuels. Just today I saw "Go Nuclear" sign in someones yard in Dana Point. You wouldn't see that with $2 gas. The problem starts though with the thought that gas would stay around $4. It won't. Currently as of this morning, gas in Southern CA is $4.69. Why would anyone think that gas wouldn't be even higher in a couple of months. There is no indication that oil would go in the other direction with the weak dollar, Iran War on the horizon, and no drilling allowed.

When will it stop? When will enough be enough. You would be naive to think that gas would stay in the $4-$5 range. Carol and I are planning on gas being in the $7-$8 range since Congress and the President won't do anything. Just like Social Security and Health Care, I'm up for every option.

• Alaska Drilling- Let's go folks. What will it take for people who have never been to Alaska to say, "Let's go".
• Off shore Drilling- I had a nice chat with Richie last week and I asked him how his dad was doing. He chuckled and said that he is so pissed right now at Arnold because he won't drill off the coast of CA. Ha!
• Nuclear Plants- Why are people scared? Because of Chernobyl? Um, that nuclear plant was run by idiot Russians. We have one right on the ocean down the road from us and there are no complaints.
• Strengthen the dollar- We need a balanced budget to get the dollar stronger.
• Alternative fuels- Well I'm for it. I'm for tax breaks, government incentives, or whatever else is needed. I know that Arnold just gave some very large incentives to Tesla Motors who has a electric car with a 200 mile range.
• Conserve- Here is the problem though about conserving. California is thinking about raising the gas tax since consumption is down 3% and they are losing out on all of the revenue. Seriously? Really?
• Speculation- Leave it be. For people that have no idea on why it was created and how much it provides some normalcy to the market, just shut up.
• Taxes- Help me understand how taxing the Oil companies help us with this situation. If people can, then I would be for it, but it just seems to me that it is spiteful and serves no purpose.

Now, I would think that I'm the only one here that can truely bitch about gas prices and truth be told, my budget has not gone up for gas. I used to have an Infiniti that used premium gas which I got rid of last August. I now carpool with people from work, so despite gas prices increasing at a fast rate, I have held my budget the same. So it works for now, but jack prices up again to $6 and then we are going to be in some trouble.

Quick Comments

Obama came out today and stated that there is "little doubt we've moved into recession." Really Obama? As Eric pointed out to me several months back, there is an equation to figure out if we are in a recession or not. It is 2 qtrs of negative growth. Not an opinion.

Just imagine if I walked around my offices telling everyone that we won't hit our results, despite the results not being in yet. Not hitting the results would mean that nobody would get a raise. Sure would create a wonderful atmosphere.

Obama, you are not a political hack, you are a presidential candidate. I was actually thinking about voting for you, but comments like this indicate that you are nothing more than a typical politician playing into the fears of voters. And yes, the Republicans have done the same, but with different topics.

Good morning

With some conversation starting on gas prices and such, here is a great article in the Journal a couple of weeks ago on some very interesting economic topics. Enjoy.

Robert Mundell isn't in the habit of making fruitless policy recommendations, though some take a long time ripening. Nearly four decades passed between his early work on optimal currency areas and the birth of the euro in 1999 – the same year he received the Nobel Prize for economics.

So when Mr. Mundell says that rescinding the Bush tax cuts "would be devastating to the world economy," that oil prices are "not so far off track," that Asia needs its own multilateral currency, or that the ham sandwiches sitting before us could use some mustard, one is inclined to pay attention – and, except in the case of lunch, to think long term.

Back in America, there's an election going on. There's also been a spate of financial problems, not the least of which is a weak dollar. But Mr. Mundell says "the big issue economically . . . is what's going to happen to taxes."

Democratic nominee Barack Obama regularly professes disdain for the Bush tax cuts, suggesting that those growth-spurring measures may be scrapped. "If that happens," Mr. Mundell predicts, "the U.S. will go into a big recession, a nosedive."

One of the original "supply-side" economists, he has long preached the link between tax rates and economic growth. "It's a lethal thing to suddenly raise taxes," he explains. "This would be devastating to the world economy, to the United States, and it would be, I think, political suicide" in a general election.

Should taxes instead be cut again, I ask him, to stimulate the sluggish economy? Mr. Mundell replies that he favors a ceiling of 30% on marginal rates (the current top rate is 35%). He recounts how the past century experienced a titanic struggle over whether tax rates are too high or too low: from a 3% income tax in 1913; up to 60% during World War I; down to 25% before Congress and President Herbert Hoover raised taxes back to 60% in 1932 and "sealed the fate of our economy for a long, long time"; all the way up to 92.5% during World War II before falling in three steps, reaching 28% under President Ronald Reagan; and back to nearly 40% under Bill Clinton before George W. Bush lowered them to their current level.

In light of this fiscal roller coaster, Mr. Mundell says, "the most important thing that could be done with respect to tax rates now is to make the Bush tax cuts permanent. Eliminating that uncertainty would be more important than pushing for a further cut – in the income tax rates, anyway."

One tax that he would cut, to 25%, is the corporate tax rate. "It could be even lower," he says, "but I think it would be a big step to lower it to 25% . . . I made that proposal back in the 1970s."
A long-haired Mr. Mundell spent that decade not only arguing for the euro, but laying the intellectual groundwork for the Reagan tax-cut revolution. Mr. Mundell says those tax cuts remain "as important to the United States as the creation of the euro was to Europe – a fundamental change." Combined with Paul Volcker's tight-money policy at the Fed, which Mr. Mundell also championed, supply-side economics killed off stagflation.

Or at least it killed it off at the time. With prices again rising as growth slows, some economists are worried that stagflation could be making a comeback. Not Mr. Mundell – not yet.
He draws a comparison with the situation in 1979-1980. Start with the dollar price of oil, which he calls "one of the two most important prices in the world" (the other being the dollar-euro exchange rate, which we'll get to in a moment)."If you look at the price level since 1980," he begins, "oil prices would naturally double by the year 2000. So from $34 a barrel in 1980 to $68 a barrel. And then . . . because the inflation rate's about 3.5%, it would double again by 2020. So the natural price . . . would be something like $136 in 2020.
"Now, we [already] got to $130-something, but . . . I really think the price is going to settle down, probably below $100, if not below $90. What I'm saying is we're not so far off track."
American motorists still shocked by $4-a-gallon gasoline might think we're rather more off track than Mr. Mundell suggests. Bolstering his case, he immediately moves on to another commodity often invoked to demonstrate inflation: gold. "The price of gold in 1980 was $850 an ounce. And the price of gold today is about the same. It's astonishing," he says. "It's true, gold did go up" to more than $1,000 an ounce earlier this year, "but the public doesn't believe that there is inflation. If there was big inflation coming, then you'd see the price of gold going up to $1,500 an ounce very quickly, and that hasn't happened."

In any case, don't expect to hear Barack Obama or John McCain talk about the weak dollar's contributions to any problem. "As [journalist] Robert Novak once put it, it's like cleaning ladies who come in and say 'I don't do ironing.' [Politicians] say, 'I don't do exchange rates,'" Mr. Mundell chuckles. "They think they can only lose by talking about exchange rates, because they don't know enough about it, and it's hard to predict anyway, for anyone."
If Mr. Mundell had his way, there wouldn't be anything for politicians to say about exchange rates. They would be fixed – as they were under the Bretton Woods arrangement after World War II until 1971, when President Nixon took the U.S. off the postwar gold standard and effectively launched the era of floating exchange rates."It's a very poor and a dangerous system," Mr. Mundell says of the floating regime, "because it creates exaggerated swings in the exchange rate." Case in point is the dollar-euro rate. From a low of about 82 cents in 2000, Europe's common currency has risen fairly steadily and has been valued at more than $1.50 since late February, even breaking the $1.60 barrier once.

"What people have to realize is there's been a fundamental change in the way markets work in the past 20 years," Mr. Mundell says. "Now, exchange rates are driven not so much by trade but by capital accounts and capital movements, and the huge amount of liquidity that's sloshing around the world."

Central banks world-wide, he notes, are trying to reach an equilibrium between dollars and euros in their $6.5 trillion worth of foreign reserves. Roughly two-thirds of these reserves are kept in dollars now, so they have about $1 trillion left to move into euros.
"If you did a hundred billion dollars" annually, Mr. Mundell points out, "you'd need 10 years to build that up, and that amount of capital movement has a tremendous effect in keeping the euro overvalued. It's not good for Europe and . . . ultimately it would cause more inflation in the United States."

But this continuing shift doesn't mean that the dollar's status as the world's dominant currency is in danger, at least not in the short run. Countries like Iran may be pushing for the pricing of oil in another currency, "but it wouldn't happen unless Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states moved in that direction, and I don't see any way in which they would do this," Mr. Mundell says. "It would be very damaging to the relations between the United States and the Gulf countries. There's an implicit defense alliance between those, and that's what overrides as a top priority."
Nor is there a macroeconomic argument for demoting the dollar. "Remember, the growth prospects for the United States are probably stronger than that of Europe, because you've got continued and substantial population growth in the United States, and zero population growth in Europe," Mr. Mundell says. "Quite apart from the fact that the U.S. economy is innovating more rapidly, and the population is younger and not getting old as rapidly, so they pick up new technology faster. So I look upon the United States still as the main sparkplug of economic growth in the world."

As for the euro's overvalued status, he forecasts deflation in Europe, along with a slowdown and an end to its housing boom. The answer, he suggests, is for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to cooperate in putting a floor and a ceiling on both the euro and the dollar. "You have to grope" to the appropriate range, he maintains, but a good starting point would be to keep the euro between 90 cents and $1.30.

Even better, in his mind – and now we're really talking long term – would be to have a global currency. This could take the form of a new money or a dominant existing one to which all others are fixed – probably the dollar. "As Paul Volcker says," Mr. Mundell relates, "the global economy needs a global currency."

To get there, he proposes holding a new, Bretton Woods-type meeting in 2010 at the Shanghai World's Fair. Mr. Mundell, who has been spending "a lot of time" in China advising the government, says reviving an international system of fixed exchange rates would be a tremendous help to Beijing as it tries to fend off demands from U.S. and European politicians that it appreciate or float its currency.

Here, he recalls Washington's similar "bashing" of the Japanese yen in the 1980s, and its ultimately disastrous effects: "Japan got stuck with an overvalued currency for a decade, and suffered from a perpetual deflation in its housing market from 1990 until just a couple of years ago. And China doesn't want to have the same problem."

Another part of his solution is for Asian countries to form their own currency bloc. If they did so, he says, "it'd be comparable in size to the European and the American bloc. And then it would not be so much the question of . . . the U.S. and Europe bashing China" or other rising economies.
These three currency blocs, he predicts, would be large enough to weather wide swings in their exchange rates. But the swings would still do economic damage, so "the best thing you could do is to stabilize them, and that's where the global currency comes in."

Could it happen? Mr. Mundell allows that three decades may pass, but predicts that like the euro and the Reagan revolution before it, the global currency's time, too, will come. Any skeptics might want to review the last few decades before betting against him.