Post Vegas

Thank you Wiz for that great post which basically sums up everything in a nice neat package. Good trip overall, but I think we were one heavy gambler shy this trip. Nothing bad about the guys on the trip, but we were probably one guy short. Maybe it was all of the stupid golf. Maybe it was all the poker. I don't know. Here are some of the missing comments on the trip.

My budget: Wow, it actually worked. While I was down for the trip, it wasn't that bad. Putting a daily cap on sportsbetting probably saved me several hundreds of dollars. I wanted to give you a detailed breakdown on the budget, but Carol ended up washing my book and now it is a pile of mush.

Rooms: Pretty crappy room at the Mirage. Very small bathroom and small beds. This brings me to my next point. Why do we all cramp 4 to a room? I'm assumming with the guys that went on this last trip, everyone's income is in the 6 figures. If so, then why do we do this to ourselves. I mean poor Micah was sleeping on a cot and I was sleeping with Don. Don't get me wrong, he was the perfect bed mate during the trip. Didn't snore, stayed on his side of the bed, and always had a funny story at night to put me back to sleep. I know, I know...it sounds very gay. That's why I left out the fact that he doesn't wear a shirt to bed. But still, I don't want to sleep in the same bed with another grown man.

Red Rock Casino- Went out there with Dick on Thursday and was amazed by how nice it was. Nice dealers, cocktail waitresses and pit bosses. Flat screens by the table games, and a very nice sportsbook. Plenty of decent resturants as well. We ended going back out there on Friday evening with Eric, Mike, and Kevin and rolled craps for close to 2 hours. I have never done that before. We started rolling at a $10 table at the start of the Texas game and didn't stop until a couple minutes left. The guy next to me bet the don't pass line the entire time and when it was his turn to roll, I asked him "Are you really going to bet against yourself?" He responded with "No, I'm betting with the dice" Ok then, I'll leave you alone from now on. First time for a couple of things at the craps table:
1. Actually had a purple chip in my chip stack.
2. On my end of the table the dealers had 6 stacks of chips- Yellow, Purple, Black, Green, Red, and Ones. I've never seen Yellow out as an option for the dealer to use. I had not one, but two guys chucking around blacks and purples on my end. Pretty crazy.

Blackjack- Just an enjoyable time playing $25 and $50 BJ and that got rid of all of the bad players. I only had one bad player and I just got up and left and then watched him melt. I will tell you that on Saturday night I wanted to stay out even later than I did, but I was falling asleep while playing 25 BJ. And I was trying out Wiz's press thing and was up to a $200, and I was having trouble keeping my eyes open. Do you know how bad that is?

Nuggett: With Pai Gow by the pool and the convention room large enough to hold everyone, the Nugget is a pretty cool place. I would stay here if they would import some Russian girls just to spruce up the place. Even by the pool I think we only saw one semi attractive girl. But we did see Godzilla which was nice.

Mesa Grille: Not good at all. The steak was OK, but just blah. We need to pick a new place. Also, I was extremely disappointed about not playing credit card roulette. Piss poor showing on Eric's friends part.

Guys that need to make the trip next year to make sure that it doesn't get too boring:
1. Jay D- Missing a little too many trips recently, but I know his heart is still with us. Needs to get out to Vegas next year. There really isn't a better guy to get drunk with and play any table games. 2. Lee- Part of the original group of hardcore gamblers with Jay D and I and was sorely missed. Might be the only guy worse than me at the sportsbook. 3. Ben- Roulette junkie that drinks way too much. Always a chance he could roll up to the room with either a smoking hot 40 year old married chick or a 12 year old boy. 4. Kermit-See Ben's comment and substitute Roulette with Slots, and 12 year old boy with hooker. Always has a place in my heart for introducing me to Bleu Cheese Olives. 5. Carol- Would want her to be there if it wasn't an all guys trip now. She is already telling me that she is in for next year. 6. Laura- Same thing. Both of these women would be an excellent addition to the group. 7. Robbie/Ghettor- These two are bad news but they are so much fun. Drunk 90% of the time and only like to gamble at the slum casinos. Once stole a magician's chest from the Plaza and couldn't cash in a winning ticket because they were caught on camera. Ended up dumping the chest back at the Plaza in the Valet line.

One quick story

First, thanks to Wiz for a wonderful (first) recap of the events this weekend. My side of the story will becoming out in a couple of days (after I dig out from the work hole I am in).

Now, did you all see this news story?


A fist fight between two NFL players broke out in the Palms casino on Sunday night, sources said. Joey Porter, an All-Pro linebacker who recently left the Pittsburgh Steelers to join the Miami Dolphins, brawled with Cincinnati Bengals offensive lineman Levi Jones, at about 6 p.m. at a blackjack table in the casino. Jones, who suffered scratches, told Las Vegas police he would be filing charges against Porter. Sources said there has been bad blood between the two.



Gees, substitute "Leland's future brother-in-law" for Jones and "Derek" for Porter, and you see what could have happened if people stay on 16 when facing a dealer's 10....

A Tradition Unlike Any Other....

Hello friends, before we get to today's Vegas recap let me bring in my good friend and colleague Lanny Watkins.

Vegas 2007
All in all another successful trip. I think the mix of old cagey veterans (Derek, Eric, Don, Micah, Wiz) with a couple rookies (Mike, Kevin, Saran) made the weekend a great time for everyone. Leland was missed and everyone is looking for a triumphant return in 2008.

I will post my highlights by day trying to remember the highlights. Let me know if I missed anything. This is just my account so I'm sure I missed a ton of stuff.

Wednesday Night
Arrive at Mirage around 11pm thanks to Derek picking Eric, Micah, and myself up and avoiding the three hour cab line.
Throw bags in room, head straight to tables. Derek and Micah play pai gow and I watch hoping a position opens. However, after standing for 10 minutes and watching other people gamble, I can't take it anymore and need some action. I tell the guys I'm going to "tour" the casino but stumble across an open $50 BJ table. Bottom line, after 10 minutes, down $1K. I walk back to the pai gow table and tell the guys what happened then proceed to a $100 BJ table. Bottom line, after 15 minutes down another $1K. So after approximately 30 minutes in the Mirage I'm already out 40% of my stash for the weekend. Talk about an uphill climb, I felt like the mountain climber from the famous Price is Right game Cliffhanger about to go over the edge. Biggest kick in the nuts was when I played a $400 hand of BJ got dealt 10 to the dealer's six up card. I doubled down and got a face card for 20. Dealer turns over a 10 for 16 and I'm feeling pretty good until the dreaded five comes out. Ouch! Off to bed, Thursday has to be better.

Thursday
Maybe it was a dream? Could last night have been that bad? This is what I thought when I woke up on Thursday morning. After checking my bankroll and realizing it was not a dream, I'm excited about playing golf today and getting away from the casino for awhile. Micah and I head down to the world famous Mirage buffet where we stuff ourselves from anything to cottage cheese to sausage gravy to chocolate croissants. After breakfast we all put our bets in on Thursday's college games. I loved the Terps and so did everybody else in our group. Derek heads over to Caesars Palace to meet Dick (work friend) so all of us decide to join him to watch the Terps game. This was a great time since everybody had some sort of action on the Terps so we were in unison rooting for them. (Side note: CP sucks, long lines to bet on games + $7 Coronas) MD doesn't score for the first 4:30 of the second half and are down nine. Everybody is laying 7.5 so its not looking good. MD storms back and somehow covers, we were dancing around CP like little kids. (Another side note: Derek was playing video poker but Eric and myself somehow took over the machine from him, while playing with his money we decided to play the "double down" bet which means you have a chance to double your winnings if you pick a card higher than the dealers. We hit a straight and decide to go for the "double down" bet. Dealer's card is a King, we are dejected. Somehow Eric picks the Ace and again we celebrate like we won a million dollars when in reality it was $2.25)

Leave CP and head out to play golf with Don, Eric, Mike (great addition to the weekend) and myself. Play Bear's Best a new course which was very average. Don and I take on Eric and Mike. Don and I destroy these clowns on the front and are laughing about how easy this is going to be when all of a sudden these guys (Mike played great, Eric drove the cart great) turn their games on and killed us on the back. We lose $5 a piece.

After golf, we head back to the Mirage to get cleaned up and watch the remainder of the games. Overall a great day of sports betting for me since MD won and Vandy won. My only two bets of the day. (Side note: Gus Johnson should call every game in the tournament, his call in the OSU game was legendary) Dinner is at Meas Grill in CP. We have eaten there many times and I'm excited since I know Don is paying for dinner since he will lose credit card roulette. Dinner is fantastic and the conversation revolves around tomorrow's games and the pending ladies games to start on Saturday. I tell the table that my lock of the weekend is the Lady Huskies laying 48 to the Lady Retrievers of UMBC. UMBC went 16-16 overall and only 6-10 in their conference. Could be a bloodbath. I also overheard this conversation take place at the table as well.

Eric: "Derek, what do you know about the UC Riverside ladies team?"
Derek (without hesitation): "Great rebounding team"
Gotta love this trip.

After dinner (oh yeah, one sour note, is that we didn't play CC roulette after dinner, Derek seemed the most upset as he stormed off) we head back to the Mirage for some late night pai gow with John. John asks me where my buddy is (referring to Leland). I tell him he couldn't make it this year and John is actually upset/concerned almost like a father. Very heartwarming!
Make some cash playing pai gow and called it a night since we have a 7:40 tee time tomorrow.

Friday
Alarm goes off at 6:30, ouch! Stumble over to Royal Links with Eric driving directly looking into the sun the whole way. It was like entering the abyss. Royal Links, wasn't expecting much but was completely wrong. Great course, great service, would absolutely play it again. Same teams as Thursday and today Don brought his "A" game. Four or five birdies later and those chumps were paying up. Thank god for pagers/Blackberry's. We could keep track of every game and every play actually throughout the day.

Head back to the Mirage. Derek decides to go over to Red Rock with Eric and Mike. I decide I need to relax so I go to the pool and schedule a massage for 5pm. Pool scene: A+ I've never seen such a show. Thongs, 20 year old's, you name it, it was there. I tried to get into Bare, the Mirage's new topless, excuse me, "European Bathing" pool and bar. I tried to walk right through but the bouncer stopped me and we had this conversation.

Bouncer: "Excuse me sir, are you on the list?"
Me: "Um yeah"
Bouncer: "Under what name sir?"
Me: "I'm with the Leland Owens party."
Bouncer: "I don't see him on the list."
Me: "Oh I'm sure he is there, big time here."
Bouncer: "Sir, I don't see him"
Me: "Oh maybe he decided not to come"

After the pool went to the spa about an hour before my massage. Great place to hangout. They have a great set up with a huge TV with all the games, beverage service and snacks. Massage was ok, my masseuse was not attractive and my massage did not have a happy ending, except that when I was done I found out Texas covered.

Friday night everybody did their own thing. Micah and I went over to Chipolte for dinner then ended up playing poker. I played for about three hours, losing six dollars, then decided to go see John. Eric met up with me and we played pai gow for another three hours. Great time, Eric and I were playing with this asshole who we dubbed Morty/Shlomo/Irving, just a real ass that every time he opened his mouth we hated him more. John and I relived some good Vegas stories such as when this chick playing pai gow told us her profession was to jerk horses off. Only in Vegas. I did get Eric to play a $100 hand of pai gow which he was promptly dealt pai gow and mumbled something along the lines of, "Wiz, now I know why you are Derek can't be alone together!" Eric decided to go to bed and I was going to as well but on my way upstairs I heard a hot craps table with a semi-hot chick rolling. The problem was that it was a $25 craps table. Oh well, I put $50 on the pass and backed it with max odds, $250. Didn't play anything else. Point is eight, first roll......SEVEN. OK bad luck, same thing, different roller, point is nine. First roll, eight, second roll....SEVEN. After blowing $1K, I wish I would have gone up with Eric.

Saturday
Best day of the trip. We all decided to take a trip downtown for the games. Derek was doing his roto baseball draft so he would join us later. Jump in a cab around 10ish and head to the Golden Nugget. I was very surprised! They took two conference rooms and turned them into mini-sports books for the tournament. Great idea. They had bars and food and even a teller to take bets. Mirage should do something like this. After watching MD lose (which I had $1,500 on them with the money line) and Micah break his toe after he kicked a chair, we headed downstairs to play some $5 craps. What can happen at a $5 craps table? Well we all got smoked. Somehow I blew through three or four hundred playing five dollar craps. Watched the end of the OSU/Xavier game with an incredible Gus Johnson call that Derek said the roars could be heard all the way up in our room from the sports book.

Then we decided to play some poolside pai gow, yes poolside. Great idea by the Nugget. $5 pai gow at the pool! We took over the whole table and played for approximately 6 hours. It got hot as shit at one point when the sun was on us and Derek was playing in a wife beater. One of the dealers, from Poland, was smokin hot! We each drank about 10-15 strawberry daiquiris (w/vodka, not rum) and either were somewhat drunk or all had sugar highs. Great scene, with some hot chicks, great music and pai gow what more do you want in life? We actually got reprimanded a couple of times for yelling too loud. How is this possible at a pool? Oh yeah, the best part about the pai gow was the community dragon where everybody can play the dragon hand. Great idea! Another twist the Mirage should use. Around 8ish we decide to grab some dinner at the Noodle House. Great meal. Over dinner we discuss our pending bet with the Lady Boilermakers that is about to tip off. We have $275 between the five of us on the Lady Boilermakers -28.5 due to a tip that Don had. Well they didn't cover. Fuck Don! Fuck his Purdue teams! We wander over to Binon's and again play some $5 craps. What a scene. One dealer looks like he is homeless, the other dealer weights 500lbs. I almost threw up. Again we all got smoked. The only time we made any money was when Derek and I played the don't pass whenever I rolled. Derek started celebrating when I rolled a seven and I thought we might get shot. Good times. Bottom line: downtown trip cost us all over $1K.

Head back to the Mirage around 10ish. I want to go to bed since I have an early flight but Derek convinces (wasn't hard) me to go play some $50 BJ. Roy, a lanky man, was our dealer. He made fun of Derek and I as we continuously yelled we want back door action. Fuck him! Well finally the trip turned positive as I got on a ridiculous run and won 14 hands in a row. Derek, well he struggled at first, but came on strong at the end. I could see the wheels turning in his head as my chip count grew and he was grinding it out. Mentally he was thinking what the fuck is going on here. I walked away turning $350 into $2,100. Not bad, but after the hole I dug it only made a dent. After I cashed out Derek then got on a ridiculous run and destroyed Roy. Good times, great dealer. He mentioned that I should have been pressing my bets more and that by the end of that run I should have been playing $10K hands. I would have been throwing up. Derek said he would have to leave the table if I played $10K hands.

The good thing about the Mirage is this new Revolutions nightclub which is themed after the Beatles. Well they have these hot chicks that dance outside the club trying to get people to come in. As Derek and I played BJ with Eric watching we wondered how much money it would take for Eric to go dance with these chicks. Bottom line, he wouldn't do it but that thought sticks with me and a laugh every time I think about that. After we get done playing BJ, we head up to the room. Derek is halfway in bed and all of a sudden gets up and just blurts out, "I have to go back downstairs and play more BJ!" and rolls out.

Sunday
Early flight but the lines at McCarran weren't bad at all. My flight is delayed about 30 minutes so I drop $150 on the Wheel with only getting one fucking spin! That summed up my trip right there.

Conclusion
Unbelievable time. Can't wait till next year and the return of Mr. Owens. Just hope he keeps his reservation at Bare this time! March 19-23, 2008!!!!!!!!!!!

Vegas

I'm so tired this morning that I poored my coffee creamer into my water and drank it thinking it was my coffee. And this was after I almost fell asleep on the way to work this morning in the car. Has this ever happened to anyone before? Its the worst feeling. Ugh. What a weekend though despite the Terps sucking major ass. I'll put up a post later on today.

Vegas #3

Words I don't want to hear over the next 5 days:

• Clobbered


• Slaughtered


• Nightmare


• Ass Raped


• "And the last credit card is Derek's"


• "Hookers? What Hookers"


• Black Friday


• "Fuck Jay and the Celtics"


• "We got $1000 on Black"


• "Your staying on 14 again?"


• "Thanks for the generous tiping last night Mr. Zahn"


• "Purdue is a layup"

Words I want to hear over the next 5 days:

• Backdoor Action


• Layup


• Double Layup


• "Do you want me to place your 5 team reverse parlay for you while I'm up there Wiz?"


• "And the last credit card is Don's"


• TAMCC advances to the second round

Statistical predictions for 1st round games

From the stats at kenpom.com, which gets a stat value for:
offensive efficiency: points per 100 possessions;
def eff: points given up per 100 possessions, and
temp: avg # of possessions a game.

Combining the two values for each opponent and you can get a prediction of an exact score. This can be helpful for over/unders, but I warn you it does not approx well with two teams that are slow (see Miami/Akron, Sat, 3/9. The o/v was a low 113; the stats said 121; I took the over, it came in at 106. )

Fla 92 Jackson St 55
Purdue 71.2 Az 71.0
Butler 68 ODU 63
Md 79 Davidson 67
ND 79 Winthrop 67
Oregon 70 Miami 60
GT 73 UNLV 67
Wisconsin 80 (!!) TxAMCC 61

Kansas 86 Niagara 58
Kentucky 68.8 Villanova 68.7
Illinois 60.7 Va Tech 60.6 (!)
Southern IL 62 Holy Cross 54
Duke 74 VCU 63
Pitt 70 Wright St 58
Ind 75 Gonzaga 70
UCLA 78 Weber 56

NC 84 Eastern Ky 55
Michigan St 66 Marq 64
Ark 67 USC 66 (!)
Tex 82 NM St 69
Vandy 72 GW 67
Wash St 68 ORU 60
BC 73 Tex Tech 69
Gtown 77 Belmont 57

Ohio St 81 Cent CT 56
X 77 BYU 74
Tennessee 86 LB St 72
Virginia 77 Albany 64
Louisville 69 Stanford 63
Tx AM 79 Penn 61
Creighton 73 Nevada 69 (!)
Memphis 82 North Texas 59

Hmmm... I'll study this on the plane....

NBA picks

DAMN!!!!!!!! Do I wish I was going out there!! Good luck to everyone out there. I was asked to put some NBA picks together, and here is my usual flow chart. Its always fun to be the one guy during tournament time that is checking out NBA scores.

Below is the flow chart (look way down the page - this site width can't handle the table I am trying to produce). I really wanted to upload a PDF I have of this file, but it doesn't look like I can upload PDFs. I could save it as an image, but I didn't think the resolution would be good enough for you to read on the site. If anybody wants this as an attachment, I'll email it to them. Anyway, here are my leans based on a "play on the schedule". I would tease a few of these games together to give me some wiggle room with the line:

3-14 CLE @ MEM (pick MEM) (CLE 4 games in 5 days)

3-14 WAS @ IND (pick WAS) (IND 4 in 5)

3-16 BOS @ DAL (pick BOS) - sandwich game for DAL (right after PHO, right before DET obviously tread lightly here since it IS boston, but MIGHT be worth a play)

3-16 GSW @ MIN (Pick MIN) - letdown for gsw after breaking their streak)

3-17 BOS @ SAS (pick SAS) (BOS 4 in 5 and they have NEVER beat Duncan...EVER)

3-17 UTH @ CLE (pick CLE) (UTH 4 in 5)

3-17 SAC @ ORL (pick ORL) (SAC 4 in 5 and just plain sucks)

3-18 DAL @ DET (pick DAL) (DET first game back from LOOOOONG road trip, there is risk here since I'm sure they'll be focused to play the best team in the NBA. But if DAL seems to get their focus back in the leading games, they can beat DET - esp a jet lagged DET)

Team	03-10(Sat)	03-11(Sun)	03-12(Mon)	03-13(Tues)	03-14(Wed)	03-15(Thur)	03-16(Fri)	03-17(Sat)	03-18(Sun)
ATL	MIN @ ATL			PHI @ ATL	ATL @ BOS			ATL @ IND
BOS		CHI @ BOS		BOS @ CHI	ATL @ BOS		BOS @ DAL	BOS @ SAS
CHA	MEM @ CHA		ORL @ CHA		SAC @ CHA		LAC @ CHA	CHA @ MIL
CHI		CHI @ BOS		BOS @ CHI	CHI @ PHI			CHI @ MEM
CLE	CLE @ MIL	IND @ CLE		SAC @ CLE	CLE @ MEM			UTH @ CLE
DAL		DAL @ LAL	DAL @ GSW		PHO @ DAL		BOS @ DAL		DAL @ DET
DEN		DEN @ SAC		POR @ DEN		LAL @ DEN		PHO @ DEN
DET				DET @ SEA	DET @ POR		DET @ PHO		DAL @ DET
GSW		GSW @ POR	DAL @ GSW				MIN @ GSW	GSW @ SEA
HOU		ORL @ HOU	HOU @ PHO		LAC @ HOU		HOU @ TOR		HOU @ PHI
IND	PHI @ IND	IND @ CLE		IND @ MIN	WAS @ IND			ATL @ IND
LAC				LAC @ SAS	LAC @ HOU		LAC @ CHA		LAC @ NJN
LAL		DAL @ LAL				LAL @ DEN	POR @ LAL		MIN @ LAL
MEM	MEM @ CHA		NJN @ MEM		CLE @ MEM			CHI @ MEM
MIA		WAS @ MIA		UTH @ MIA		MIA @ NJN	SAC @ MIA		ORL @ MIA
MIL	CLE @ MIL		TOR @ MIL			SAS @ MIL		CHA @ MIL
MIN	MIN @ ATL			IND @ MIN			MIN @ GSW		MIN @ LAL
NJN	NJN @ SAS		NJN @ MEM	NJN @ NOK		MIA @ NJN			LAC @ NJN
NOK	NOK @ UTH			NJN @ NOK			NOK @ NYK	NOK @ WAS
NYK	NYK @ WAS				NYK @ TOR		NOK @ NYK		TOR @ NYK
ORL		ORL @ HOU	ORL @ CHA		UTH @ ORL			SAC @ ORL	ORL @ MIA
PHI	PHI @ IND			PHI @ ATL	CHI @ PHI		UTH @ PHI		HOU @ PHI
PHO			HOU @ PHO		PHO @ DAL		DET @ PHO	PHO @ DEN
POR		GSW @ POR		POR @ DEN	DET @ POR		POR @ LAL		SEA @ POR
SAC		DEN @ SAC		SAC @ CLE	SAC @ CHA		SAC @ MIA	SAC @ ORL
SAS	NJN @ SAS			LAC @ SAS		SAS @ MIL		BOS @ SAS
SEA		SEA @ TOR		DET @ SEA				GSW @ SEA	SEA @ POR
TOR		SEA @ TOR	TOR @ MIL		NYK @ TOR		HOU @ TOR		TOR @ NYK
UTH	NOK @ UTH			UTH @ MIA	UTH @ ORL		UTH @ PHI	UTH @ CLE
WAS	NYK @ WAS	WAS @ MIA			WAS @ IND			NOK @ WAS

Vegas Post #2

OK, after hearing from most of you, I was a little shocked on the feedback. I guess many of you don't really know me. I have zero self control and I usually end up getting killed out in Vegas. Why is this a shock to some of you. My biggest problem during each of my trips seem to be that I get crushed in one game and all of the other games subsides this one bad game. For example, I might do well in BJ, Craps, and the Sportsbook, but I will get absolutely hammered in Roulette. So for the rest of the trip, I will try and just get one good run in Roulette that sometimes never happens. When looking back at it I dumped maybe $1k to $2k into this stupid game. This happened to me with BJ and the Sportsbook in November, Craps last year, and Roulette whenever Ben and I went out there in 2006. So the overall purpose of having a budget for each game is that I need to have a shut off valve on each game to stop the bleeding. Let's see if this works.

Budget:
Sportsbook: 600
BJ: 700
Craps: 600
Poker: 300
Pai Gow: 300
Video Poker: 200
Total: 2,700

I also created a "Jay D I'm reloading fund" of $500 to make a midnight craps run at the Monte Carlo/New York New York. I have also created a $100 "Leland Women's College Hoops Midnight Layup Fund". This might just go on the Texas A&M CC moneyline. Mark my words on TAMCC!! The biggest layup of the weekend. Eric read me something about them from his book and I instantly got a hard on.

Last two notes. I'm having some major issues filling out my bracket. I have done it now about 10 times. The first 4 times I had Winthrop and Vandy in my Great 8 and I had to just slam my head against the wall about 6 times to knock some sense into me. They the next couple of tries I have Tenn and the Zags. Ugh. I'm lost. But despite my struggles, I don't think I have been this excited about the tournament before. Maybe because I have watched so little basketball this year and I'm not warn out on it just yet. I'm giddy about a couple of upset picks that I hope still have decent odds by the time I get out there. Below is my plan on the moneylines:

Thursday:
9:00am Stanford: $20 moneyline
11:00am Oral Roberts: $40 moneyline
2:00: GW: $10 moneyline
4:10: VCU $20 moneyline
6:30: Zags $10 moneyline

Friday:
9:00am Albany: $10 moneyline
11:45: Winthrop: $20 moneyline (this line might drop even more so I just might skip it)
11:45 TAMCC: $40 moneyline (this might increase in $$$)
11:45 LBC: $10 moneyline- For my boys from the LBC!!!!!
6:30: Arkansas: $20 moneyline
6:30: Holy Cross: $20 moneyline** This might be the biggest sleeper. If we go into the last set of games without a 4 seed losing, I might unload on this. But if VA, TX, or MD lose then I will stay away from this.

Random thoughts on the tourney

First of all, there is a $35 NCAA pool out there that I play in. The rules reward upsets - a correct pick gets you the seed times the round number. So if Winthrop wins a 2nd round game, that's 22 points if you picked it.
The website is www.levittsledger.com.

Quick thoughts on the tournament after 24 hours of reflection:

1) I am convinced Winthropwill beat ND - and so is everyone else (except Digger). As my friend Paul (who is a big ND fan) just said in an email - this game is like Md playing College of Charleston 10 years ago - everyone picked Charleston to win (in a 5/12 upset) and lo and behold, they did. Is it the same here?

2) Why is it soooooo hard for people to type these lettters in the bracket:
M
E
M
P
H
I
S
No question in my mind - none - that Memphis will go to the final 4. Who will beat them?
Nev/Creighton aren't athletic enough
Tex A&M got screwed and will lose to Louisville in round 2
Ohio St is overrated.

3) Both UNLV and BYU are massively underrated.

4) I still don't understand how Va vand Va Tech got their seeds.

5) VCU should stay right with Duke, if not win.

6) The Ten-LB game is like the stock market in 1999 - the totals just keep going up, up and up. It opened at 163, it is now at 170 in some places!
(but I am considering the under. Only one coach has to make the decision to slow it down and throw the other team off....and that's it for the over. Look, a 84-82 game is still under!)

7) First #1 seed to lose: I think Kansas. They are too inconsistent. Look for them to get toppled by Southern Illinois.

8) Upsets in the first round, possibly: ODU, Winthrop, Illinois, VCU, Arkansas.
I'm recanting on the Albany pick ( thanks to you, rrd).

9) Indiana-Gonzaga? BC-Tex Tech? I just don't care.

Kenpom.com score predictions coming tonight. This should shed light on some solid over/under plays.

Schedule of Games

OK - for planning purposes, here is the schedule of games for the 1st two days. All times are Vegas time.

Thursday 9:20:
Maryland-Davidson (gees, the Terps leading off0
Boston College-Texas Tech
Louisville - Stanford

Thursday 11:45-12:00:
Butler-Old Dominion
Washington-Oral Roberts
Georgetown-Belmont
Texas A&M (the real one) - Penn

Mystery Game #1; Thursday 2:00
(only for people in Nashville and Washington DC):
Vanderbilt-George Washington

Thursday 4:10:
Duke-VCU
UCLA-Weber St
Marquette-Michigan St (LOCK of the year!!)
Ohio St- Cent Connecticut

Thursday 6:30:
Pitt-Wright St
Indiana - Gonzaga
North Carolina - E Kentucky
Xavier - BYU

Friday 9:20 am:
UNLV - Ga Tech (Vegas is playing at 9 in the morning???)
Virginia - Albany
Memphis - North Texas

Friday 11:45:
Notre Dame - Winthrop
Wisconsin - Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Tennessee - Long Beach
Nevada - Creighton (the Nevada Doubleheader)

Mystery Game #2, Friday 2:00
for people in Portland and Cincinnati
Oregon - Miami OH

Friday 4:00
Arizona-Purdue
Kansas - sacrificial play in winner (PS - Niagara is a LOCK on Tuesday)
Virginia Tech - Illinois
Texas - New Mexico St

Friday 6:30
Florida (with "Dancing with the stars" future participant Joakim Noah) - Jackson St
Kentucky - Villanova
Southern Ill - Holy Cross
Southern Cal - Arkansas

NIT

Ok group, here is the link to the Bracket. For those of you interested, it is $5. Please fax in at 562 494 3670 or email it to me. Do not send in the money. I will work out an arrangement on the cost. If it is the usual suspects entering in the tournament either I will see you this week, will see you in a month or two, or I owe you money. So its not a big deal.

You will need to have it submitted by March 13th.

Thanks,

Fuck Florida

Wow, did you see that post game interview with Joakim Noah? What an idiot. What an asshole.

God, please keep Wiz away from me.

OK, all of these other posts were just a warm up to this one. The pre Vegas prep. I'm posting this now since I need a lot of feedback on my plan. I always put a plan into place before I go out, but it falls through. I don't think I've ever put it into writing before, but this time is different. Without Jay or Lee out there, what is stopping Wiz and I from going crazy. $1000 on black on Thursday night at 11:00pm could very well happen if no one is watching us. Eric will stand by and judge, but not do anything, and Don will probably encourage us. So I need a written plan to follow.

Before we get started on the plan, let me tell you about a huge blunder that I did last week. Our company has profit sharing and is always paid out during the last week in March. I was going to change some of my payout options to receive more cash upfront due to this trip, marriage expenses, and Carol's real estate expenses. As usual, I procrastinated and was not able to change this option, which means that all of my profit sharing will go into my deferred account. Not a bad choice in the long run, but this just kills me in the short term. Oh, and I won't get my tax return back in time either, so now I'm really strapped for cash for this trip. I don't have a lot of room for error. I won't be able to handle a drunk night of crazy gambling losses like I used to. Oh, I just lost $300 on black? No biggie. 10 straight losing handles at BJ? No biggie. $25 on the hard ways? Let's do it. Well not anymore. And I can't wait for the judging eye of Eric when I start doing this on Friday night at 1:00am.


So here are some basic ground rules that I'm setting up:
1. Thursday will be spent with my friend Dick from AZ. We will play about 2-3 hours of video poker while watching the games and then make a trek out to the low end casinos to play $5 single deck BJ. Dick oversees our West Coast Claims Division and has a passion for slumming. Last year he stopped out and we hit The Orleans, South Coast, and two other shitty casinos to find a hot $5 BJ table. Lots of fun and very cost effective.
*Note*- Do not let Eric around this guy. When Dick and Eric first met, Eric didn't know that he was a VP of our company and let out the smelliest fart of all time at the bar in the Monte Carlo. First time I think I've ever seen Eric thoroughly embarrassed.

2. Hitch my wagon to Don in the evenings. I hate playing poker at the Mirage and I hate playing poker alone. But I will play a lot more poker this trip, as long as I can play with Don. This will also keep me sober during my most weakest hours; 8pm-midnight.

3. Watch what Eric and Wiz bet on, and if there are any matches, go in the opposite direction. I have never seen such a losing streak when several very knowledgeable basketball guys all agree on a certain game. Its crazy.

4. I will play roulette, but will not bet on black. I repeat, I will not bet on black.

5. Up my BJ play to a minimum of $25 a hand. This way it will eliminate the bad players. If I do play at a lesser table, then it has to be with the boys and nobody else.

6. Get up a leave immediately whenever I see a bad play by someone else at the table.

7. NO shuffle machines. Ever!! No matter how bad I want to play BJ, I will not play at a shuffle machine table.

8. Stay away from the Bellagio. I hate the dealers and clientele. Why do we always make a stop there?

9. If I go on a winning streak in the Sportsbook, do not start to increase the wagers. Stick to the plan. I tend to increase the wagers after I have a good session and then loss it all back. This is gambling 101. Ugh.

Am I forgetting anything? Breakdown of expenses:

Sportsbook: $640 for the trip. $10 a game. Now I'm not planning on wagering on every game, but I'm also not stupid and only go in there saying that I'm going to only wager on 5-6 games. I'm going to concentrate on the moneylines on the 11 and 12 seed teams and find one game to unload. Then I'll go with several $10 games. Jay, if you can help with some ideas on NBA games, that would be great. For me I can get into a game that I only have $10 on or $100.

2. BJ: $700- This is going to be interesting. Let's see if I can't break out of this losing streak that I've got going. I am willing to give up BJ, like I have done before if I continue to have these losing sessions.

3. Pai Gow: $300. Let's see if I can hang with Micah for a long session.

4. Craps:???- This is the real big question mark. $1000 budget? $500? $2000? I have no idea. I also need a strategy on what I'm going to do. I'm torn between the place bets and the come. I need some assistance on this.

5. Roulette: $600- That's two big times that I'll allow myself to play. No betting on red or black. Here that Wiz. I'm not doing it. Eric, Don, and Micah, please tackle me if you see this happen.

6. Video Poker: $200- This should hold me for a couple of bad runs with Dick.

7. Wheel: $200- I love playing Wheel of Fortune and is often forgotten.

8. Poker: $300- If I'm not winning, I'll stop. Its been a while since I've played, but still there is no excuse if I can't clean up.

So that is it. My total budget for gambling: $3940 if I go with $1000 for craps. Wow, that added up quickly. I wanted a $3000 budget, but I can live with $4000.

Thoughts? Ideas? Comments?

Rotisserie Baseball

One of the great things about the opening weekend of the basketball tournament is that it means the start of my Rotisseries Baseball league is right around the corner. Nothing like spending 6-7 hours on a cell phone with your partner back east drafting your team. You want to talk about having red ears. Jesus. Its terrible. The last two times I've been out in Vegas for this and I've completed one draft in a Starbucks, and the other one in the parking garage of the Monte Carlo. Why don't I do it in my room? Well everyone is sleeping so I'm forced to go outside. I feel like I will have to do this again. Maybe I'll force the manager to open up our Vegas office for this.

Anyway, Jon (jorgeblogsada) is my partner in this traditional auction 5 by 5 league with a couple of twists. Each player that you pick up during the auction, you get them for 3 years at the same salary. We also have a 10 player minor league system that is completed by auctions as well. It is a traditional rotisserie league, and not a week to week format, so the winner is decided by the year end totals of each category. So there isn't any playoffs and if you start out slow, the season tends to be over. Jon and I have been out of it early two times and we end up calling the season early and dump our top players with high contracts for top notch minor leaguers and keepers so we are all set for the next season. This ends of working out perfectly, despite everyone getting pissed at us. It is very obvious that nobody likes us in the league, but who gives a shit. The only reason why we stay in the league is that it is the best feeling when you kick all of their asses, knowing that they can't stand you. Ahhh.

So last year Jon and I built a very solid team, and with some amazing moves during the year, we positioned ourselves to win the entire year during the last weekend of the season. We ended up dropping all of our starters and picked up 4 crappy closers. All we needed was 1-2 saves over the weekend between 6 closers to win the league. Well what happens is probably one of the most crushing events in fantasy baseball, football, or basketball ever. Watching each game closely on Saturday, we had 4 opportunities to get a save. And game by game we saw each closer blow the lead and lose the game. 4 fucking blown saves in one day. All we needed was one save to tie and 2 saves to win the entire thing. Think about that. The entire season came down to being 1 save short. So when guys come up to me and say "Man I lost my football fantasy because player x was one yard short", I say who cares. Not a big deal. That's just one game. We lost by one fucking save over the course of the entire baseball season. Crushing.

So we go into this year with the same strategy. Pay big money for the two anchors of our team (Pujols and Santana) and then fill in with a bunch of in between players. I'm mainly the finance and minor league guy and Jon is the draft day guru for our major league teams. Its like a CEO and CFO working together during the draft day. Jon wants a player and the bidding is getting a little too high and I'm screaming into the phone the remaining money per player we can spend and how many positions we have left to fill. God I love Access and pivot tables. It make it so easy. During the bidding and it takes one second to do projections of our salary cap. That's the way its got to be. One guy with the ideas and the other to bring him back to earth at times due to financial limitations. Works perfectly.

NIT

Group,

We will be holding a NIT tournament for $5. 1/2 of the proceeds will be going to the March of Dimes. Please let me know if you are interested and I will get you a link to the brackets and the rules.

Basketball Ramblings

1. Since I'm just starting to watch College Hoops now during the last couple of games during the regular season and all of the conference play, I'm wondering if that is not a good way to judge if a team will do well in the tournament. And I'm not talking about winning it all, just getting into the sweet 16, since that is when we will be wager on the teams. Eric, we need the breakdown of seeds 3-6 on what they have traditionally done in their conference tournament.
2. Trying to research the above information, I came across some interesting information like the 12 seed has been more successful against the 5 seed (33% winning %) than the 11 seed has been against the 6 seed (31%).
3. What the hell happened to the Terps. Lee said we got killed on the boards by a team that played 4 guards. Ugh. That is terrible. I know people are trying to play it off, but this was a terrible loss an has me very worried.
4. How many teams does Diger Phelps have in the tournament? 120? Everyone should be in. Nice to see Vitale call him out on this.
5. I really think Eric should start up a College Basketball website. Lee and I spent 30 minutes last week questioning him about every mid major and minor conference and his answers were correct 60% of the time. Simply amazing. He could easily make some money during this time of year for people looking for advice.
6. I fucking hate Hansbourgh with a passion. If he stays another year, he could get up there with Latiner, Hurley, Wojo, and Parks as the most hated college white guy.
7. 30 seconds left in the game and you are down by 1. What do you do as a coach? The Vermont team just dribbled it on top for 25 seconds and then turned it over. What a terrible ending. Why not shoot it and just in case if you miss you can foul. Ugh.
8. Crap. The updated brackets show the Terps as a 4, but playing in Spokane. And who is in their bracket and a possible matchup in the second round? Gonzaga. Gonzaga playing in Spokane? I don't like it.

Conswella, put down the bat!!!

So I'm making dinner last night and I hear some noise outside of the kitchen window. It sounded like little kids playing, so I ignored it at first. I walk into the living room and Carol and I still hear what seems to be little boys playing right outside of our kitchen window. When I go check it out, I see a 50 year old Mexican lady beating what seems to be a 14 year old boy with a bat. It took a couple of seconds to register and then I went outside to stop it. When I turned the corner it was like this picture. 25 people yelling at each other, women crying, little kids screaming, and this old Mexican women with a bat still yelling. I heard one guy who I think was our neighbor yelling to the Mexican family "Your not supposed to hit someone that is on the ground like that. Do you understand?? He was down, no mas"

So I decided to come back inside since our neighbor had it under control. Whatever. Well I go to take the trash out later on that night and there was about 6 cop cars in the parking lot. They were arresting what seemed to be 5-6 people.

Exciting night in Dana Point.

Cue the Joan Jett Music...

Well, this is a first for me.

The big NFL news today is that Jamal Lewis has signed a contract with the Cleveland Browns.

This is going to be interesting, no?

I can't recall a Cleveland team signing somebody that most of the league hates - and/or is considered a bad apple. No, Albert Belle doesn't count, since he grew up an Indian - hell, I remember rooting for him when he was Joey Belle! And the same rule applies to Kellen Winslow. Those guys were homegrown, and us Cleveland fans loves/d them while no other fans did.

Now - unless there was a Mark Carreon hate club out there that I missed - we have signed someone who is talented, but is hated by most of the league, mostly due to his significant drug conviction. (I have called him "8-ball" Lewis multiple times.)

How do I feel about this? Honestly, I have no idea.

Look - I'm not naive enough to wish that all the players on my team were 100% clean. But gees - I don't know how many times I called Baltimore "Crackmore" over the past few years...and here we are with Jamal.

Talent wise, is this a good signing? I guess. This is like a Billy Beane signing - a risk with lots of upside potential. (I'm sure Derek will violently correct me on this statement). Do I think his best years are behind him? I do. But he is only - only! - 27. So I very easily could be wrong.

It's going to be awfully hard to root for him in September. However, once he scores a touchdown, I think I will be over it and will buy his jersey the next day.

(That reminds me - his number was #31 in Baltimore, right? I'm sure he can have #31 in Cleveland - the same number as Willie Green! I just need to rip off the "Green" and put "Lewis" on my jersey - ta da!)

Will I hate myself for loving him? Yes, unless the wins pile up next year. Then it will be easy. But that's a big if.

11 Seed

Has there ever been an 11 seed favorite before? I know of several 10 seeds that have been the favorite, but I can't think of an 11. Will this be the first year that this will happen?

Willpower......I need willpower, quickly

So I think I blogged a few weeks ago that I was sick of being overweight - I believe this was right before Derek's wedding, when someone took my measurements for my tux and they told me I was a 40 waist. Dear God- the horror! I am not a 40!

So I actually did something about it....since mid-January, I've been eating healthier at lunch, making sure I eat something for breakfast (as opposed to nothing), and I am jogging 3 times a week - even during the crappy weather we've had in February.

The results? I am down 6 pounds in 6 weeks. I know, not Dan Marino-like numbers, but I feel better and it's not a wholesale lifestlye change. This can be sustained.....

But today is my biggest challenge...

My work computer crashed yesterday, so it is now in the hands of IT. I don't expect to get it back until late today at the earliest. On top of that, Warren has a fever - and since I really can't do anything without my work computer, I'm staying home with him.

Now I feel like Alice in the above Dilbert strip. I've got to make sure I don't go through a box (or two) of Girl Scout cookies in our pantry. I treated Warren to McDonalds this morning - of course, I had to get something too.... and he's not eating his McGriddle, so now that's sitting there staring me in the face....

I hope those 6 pounds I lost aren't gained over 8 hours today....

Observations on the NCAAs, with a week left

Some of my thoughts off the top of my head on the NCAAs, with a week left until Selection Sunday.

(Good news, by the way! The Blue Ribbon Tournament Guide is back! I used to get this all the time from 1995-01 when it was published. It is a 80 page guide with a 1 page description on each of the teams. It did not publish for the past 5 years; it is resuming publication in 2007. I am getting the hard copy delivered Fed Ex on the TUesday before the tournament.

Thoughts by conference, with the # of locks in parentheses:

ACC (7): Let's get it out there. If I'm a #12 seed or so, who the hell am I supposed to be scraed of in this conference outside of NC or Md? Virginia had the conference title in their hand - but lost at Wake with it all on the line. Va Tech looked awful at Va Tech and couldn't beat Clemson at home. BC? Blown out. Duke is overrated, in my opinion. Ga Tech may be the 3rd best team in the conference.
Fla St has a chance to get in - if they win the 8/9 game - but Clemson is out for now.

Am East (1): If Vermont gets in, they'd be a solid 13; if not, then the winner is a 15 at best.

A-10 (1? 2?): Did you know this tourney is played in...Atlantic City? How much did Trump pay them to move it there?
Xavier is in, no matter what. If they lose the conf tourney, then this conference will get 2.

Atl Sun (1): Belmont is in, possibly a 14.

Big East (7): Georgetown is solid, but who else? Pitt is fading, Marquette has questions, Notre Dame can't play away from home, Louisville could do some damage. I think both Syracuse and Villanove are overrated - look at Syracuse's road record - but we will give them a spot for now. West Virginia is out, according to me.

Big Ten (??? 3? 6?) : Ohio St is a solid #1...I think Wisconsin has questions - they can be overpowered physically. Indiana is paying better now. Then what? Michigan St is 1-8 away from home, Illinois just lost to Iowa, Purdue plays hard but they're not that talented, and Michigan sucks. I can see 3,4 or 5 - not 6.

Big West (1): Long Beach St will be a 14. I know nothing about them.

Big 12 (4). Right now, Kansas is a #1, Texas A&M is a solid 2, Texas is zooming up the charts, and Tex Tech sneaks in. Who else? Is Huggy Bear and the Kansas St Wildcats in? Possibly, depending on the tourneys.

Big South (1): Winthrop is in, possibly as high as a 10. They can win 2 games - an #11 seed would be perfect for them.

Big Sky (1): I know nothing.

CAA (2): Just a mess. If Old Dominion wins tongiht, then I think both VCU (reg season champ) and ODU (highest RPI, at 35) are both in. What about Drexel? They won at Syracuse and at Villanova - but finished 4th in conference and looked outclassed today vs. VCU. My prediction: they are the last team out.

C-USA: (1/2): Memphis is in. That's it, unless they lose. Their final is at 10:35 am local time next Saturday. A high price to pay for national TV exposure.

Horizon (2): Butler is in, although they are really struggling. I predict, however, that Wright St will win on the Eric A. Zahn memorial court in Dayton.... and the conference gets 2.
I also predict that Butler is this year's Nevada from 06, and may flame out in round 1.

Ivy: (1): Penn is in, but they are not a good 14.

MAC(1): Akron or Toledo, for a #13 seed.

MAAC(1): Loyola is still alive! They play tonight.

MEAC (1): The winner gets a 16 seed.

MVC (2/3): Creghton and Sothern Illinois are in- Southern is the real deal, and can go far as a 3 seed and the right draw (Wisconsin?). Missouri St is 3rd, and may get in. Last team in or out.

Moutain West (3): BYU and UNLV are two good teams I haven't seen. Air Force is struggling, but they should get in. The big questions is if San Diego St can sneak in with a tourney final appearance. I say no.

Mid-Con(1): Oral Roberts beat Kansas earlier this year; if they get in , they will be an interesting 14.

Northeast (1): Mt St Mary's i splaying now against hte #1 seed: if they win (vs Cent Conn), the winner of the conference certainly goes to Dayton for the play in game.

OVC (1): Eastern Kentucky is a 15/16.

Patriot (1): The winner of Bucknell/Holy Cross wil lbe a tough 13/14; the loser goes to the NIT.

Pac-10 (6): I guess we will take all 6. UCLA has locked up a #1, but then what? How good is Washington St? Oregon has Ernie Kent as their coach - that takes them down a notch. USC is young. Arizona just falls asleep at times. I think Stanford is closer to the bubble than people realize. Washington needs to win to get in.

SEC (4): God, the SEC West is worse than the 1994 AL West. Who would have guessed that the two teams getting the byes from the SEC West are - Mississippi and Mississippi St, both 8-8???
And how good in Florida - they lost 3 down the stretch. Kentucky is overrated - mark my words. Tennessee can't win away from home - and Vanderbilt just lost to a horrid Arkansas team. Honestly, I can see LSU getting hot and winning the whole thing and getting in.

Gees, this golf is insane. I love a tournament when everyone puts it in reverse and someone who finished 100 minutes ago now is in a playoff.

Southern (1): Davidson will be a 12/13, and could win a game.

Southland (1): I know nothing, but the name "Texas A&M at Corpus Christi" would be a loooong name to put on a bracket.

SWAC (1). Who knows. The winner goes to Dayton.

Sun Belt (1): The favorite lost; Western Kentucky is the leader now and probably will be a 15.

WAC (1)?: Nevada is in, but I don't like them. Fazekas just looks like a lightweight. I wached them last night and saw New Mex St - a good team - physically beat them, although they fouled a lot. I can easily see Nevada losing in the WAC tourney, stealing another bid.

WCC (1). What to do with Gonzaga if they don't win? This team beat North Carolina... in November, with the two players that are now out for the mushroom incident. The winner (either Gonzaga or Santa Clara) will be a 12 or 13.

So - doing my math, that's.....62, given 4 for the big 10. That leaves 3 more for conference upsets - like the A-10, Horizon, WAC, and C-USA; otherwise, teams like Clemson, Fla St, WV, K St, 5th big 10, Drexel, Missouri St.

I love 4-way PGA playoffs, especially when someone hits their tee ball in the mud.

Injury Pool

We interrupt or coverage of NCAA Basketball to bring you the following news bulletin:

The Cleveland Browns have just signed the best Offensive Lineman FA in 2007, Guard Eric Steinbach (from Iowa), to a seven-year deal. Steinbach played his first four years with the Cincinnati Bengals.

So - the pool is:

When will Steinbach have his season-ending injury in 2007?
a. August 12
b. September 2
c. October 21
d. November 1

Picks for Friday March 2

Ok - so far in the beta test for my new picking philosophy, I am 5-3. Let's continue with only 5 picks from today's tournament games:

Georgia St/W&M over 124
Bradley -1
Loyola-Chi -4.5
Rider (Derek's 2nd favorite school) -5.5
Towson -4.5

NCAA Tournament Theory #1

Allow me if you will to have my next posts help confirm or debuk some theories I have about picking winners/upsets in the Tourney.

The first tasks is to focus on upsets. One theory is that a lower-seeded team that emerges as a Cinderella undoubtedly has previous tournament experience. Rookie or first-time teams are usually not Cinderella.

I have looked at the Tournament results for the past 7 years and picked out the #12-#16 seeds that either won or lost by 5 (covered the spread, you know). Out of those teams, I looked at the previous history of the team.

Here we go:
2006: 8 teams (out of a possible 20)
Tex A&M - 12 seed; won 1 game
no previous experience
NW St - 14; won 1
no exp.
Bradley - 13; won 2 games
no exp.
Xavier - 14; lost by 3
2004- 7 seed, elite 8; 2003 - 3 seed, won 1 game
Murray St - 14, lost by 4
04 -12 seed, lost
Winthrop - 15, lost by 2
05 - 14 seed, lost
Montana - 12; won 1 game
05- 16 seed, lost
Pacific - 13 seed, lost in 2OT
05 - 8 seed, won1 game; 04- 12 seed, won 1 game

2005: 3 teams:
Wis-Milwaukee: 12, won 2 games
03 - 12 seed, lost
Ohio: 13 seed, lost by 5
no exp.
Vermont: 13; won 1 game
04- 15 seed, lost; 03- 16 seed, lost

2004: 7 teams
Pacific: 12 seed, won 1 game
no exp.
Northern Iowa: 14 seed, lost by 5
no exp.
Manhattan: 12 seed, won 1 game
03: 14 seed, lost
VCU: 13 seed, lost by 1
no exp.
E Tenn St: 13 seed, lost by 3
03 - 15 seed, lost
BYU: 12 seed, lost by 5
03: 12 seed lost

2003: 8 teams
Tulsa - 13 seed, won 1 game (over *(&$^@#$ Dayton)
02: 12 seed, won 1 game
Holy Cross: 14 seed, lost by 4
02: 16 seed, lost; 01: 15 seed, lost
Wis-Mil: 12 seed, lost by 1
no exp
Western Ky: 13 seed, lost by 5
02: 9 seed, lost; 01: 14 seed, lost
Utah St: 15 seed, lost by 3
01: 12 seed, won 1 game; 00: 12 seed, lost
BYU: 12 seed, lost by 5
01: 12 seed, lost
Butler: 12 see, won 2 games
01: 10 seed, won 1; 00: 12 seed, lost
ETSU: 15 seed, lost by 3
no exp

2002: 6 teams
UNC-Wilm: 13 seed, won 1 game
00: 15 seed, lost
Missouri: 12 seed, won 3 games
01: 9 seed, won 1; 00: 9 seed, lost; 99: 8 seed, lost
Davidson: 13 seed, lost by 5
no exp
UC-SB: 14 seed, lost by 5
no exp
Tulsa: 12 seed, won 1 game
00: 7 seed, won 3 games; 99: 9 seed, won 1 game
Creighton: 12 seed, won 1 game
00: 10 seed, lost; 99: 10 seed, won 1 game

2001: 9 teams
Iona: 14 seed, lost by 2
00: 14 seed, lost; 98: 12 seed, lost
Gonzaga: 12 seed: won 2 games
00: 10 seed, won 2 games; 99: 10 seed, won 3 games
Indiana St: 13 seed, won 1 game
00: 12 seed, lost
Utah St: 12 seed, won 1 game
00: 12 seed, lost: 98: 13 seed, lost
Southern Utah: 14 seed, lost by 3
no exp
Holy Cross: 15 seed, lost by 4
no exp
Kent St: 13 seed, won 1 game
99: 11 seed, lost
George Mason: 14 seed, lost by 3 (to Maryland!)
99: 14 seed, lost
Hampton: 15 seed, won 1 game
no exp

2000: 5 teams - none of which won (NO upsets pulled by any team #12 or higher!)
SE Missouri St: 13 seed,lost by 3
no exp
Northern Arizona: 15 seed, lost by 5
98: 15 seed,lost
St Bonaventure: 12 seed, lost by 5, 2OT
no exp
Butler: 12 seed, lost by 1
98: 13 seed, lost; 97: 14 seed, lost
LA-Lafayette: 13 seed, lost by 5
no exp

What does this all mean? Hell if I know. You tell me.

Actually, there were 46 teams over the past 7 eyars that were #12 seeds or hight and either won or lost by 5 or less.
Out of these 46 teams, only 18 of them had no tourney experience in the previous 4 years. 28 of them did.
Out of those 28 , only 9 of themhad won a tourney game in the past 4 years.

So the Cinderellas have tourney experience, but may not have actually won a game in the recent past. Sometimes the teams are rising - their seed has gone up and up each year until their breakthrough (seeVermont, 05 and Holy Cross, 03 and Utah St, 01). Sometimes it is just their second year to the tourney after a bad debut last year or the year before (Montana, 06; Wisc-Mil, 03; Manhattan, 04).
But sometimes it is a semi-established team that has had higher seeds in the past but is having a down year - like Xavier, 06; Tulsa, 03; Missouri, 02; Creighton, 02).

Any teams this year fit these molds?

Well, the first one that clearly stands out is Winthrop. Their seed will improve form a 14 in 05 and a 15 in 06 to something like a 11/12 this year. Second-year teams that could make an impact are Oral Roberts (16 in 06), Davidson(15 in 06), SOuth Alabama (14 in 06).

An established team in a down year with a high seed could be Illinois (a 12 possibly this year) or a mystery team from a high-mid, like the WAC, A-10, or C-USA (Temple? UAB? Hawaii?)

Just things to think about....

I heart Vazquez

Well, it seems that the Terps read the blog. Vazquez was amazing last night. What a different player. And what makes me even more comfortable with this team is that they can handle having a player or two put up an absolute stinker of a game and still win.

While Duke is not the same Duke teams of the past, it was once again encouraging to see the Terps come out strong and win a tough game on the road after a big win at home. Too many times in the past I have seen Gary's teams put together a winning streak during the season and then have a serious let down game.

Teams that will give us problems in the future? Well anyone that has a great 3 point shooting team that likes to slow down play. I see several teams that we might have to play in the upcoming month that are like this. They will eat us alive. But on the flip side, I don't think there is a team that can run with us right now. Should be very interesting.

Terps

Wow, what a game yesterday. I guess I picked the right time to watch my first college basketball game of the year. Some comments from the game.

1. Vazquez and Hayes- Both were terrible. I don't know how Lee can say that Vazquez was one of the reasons why we won the game. From watching on TV, he was terrible. Both Hayes and Vazquez combined for 11 turnovers, and they were terrible turnovers. They both looked like Vinny Testiverde when trying to dump the ball down low. Ugh. And Vazquez just running down the lane out of control was pissing me off to no end. I'm not too sure if it is a good thing or bad thing that they are just freshman.

2. Three point defense- Well its nice to see that some things never change. How do you not guard Miller? He had two wide open 3-pointers during the first half. They did clamp down in the second half which was nice.

3. Transition defense- Not too sure if this was a reflection of how good UNC was at this or how bad UM was on defense, but there sure seemed to be a lot of really easy baskets for UNC. I'm still confused on how we pulled this game out.

4. On the bright side, I have never seen a Maryland team rebound like this. Gist, Ibekwe, and Osby were outstanding. The effort on the boards was tremendous. 46-33 rebound advantage.

5. Free throws- WOW!!!! We actually made our free throws when they counted. Once again I don't remember seeing this before. Its the small things that won this game.

6. Osby- Who the hell is this guy? I love him!!! Yes he is a little goofy, but he really took Hansborough out of his game in the first half and had some huge offensive rebounds.

7. I had given up on the Terps with about 8-7 minutes left and switched to the NASCAR race, and switched back and saw that the Terps were within 3 points. Thank God I tivo'd the game, so I really didn't miss anything. What a great comeback and overall win!!! Watch for the letdown game though. Terps talking like they are an automatic bid for March Madness, traveling to Duke who is pumped up to avenge their loss to the Terps early on? This could be a really bad game for the Terps.

Crisis of Confidence & Strategy

I've been thinking about the topic of this post for a while now....it's a subject near and dear to my heart concerning Vegas and betting strategies. Would love to have the opinions of the group out there.

There are strategies out there for every casino game in order to maximize your chance of winning (or, more correctly, to minimize your losses). You don't bet on the horn in Craps (hello, drunk Eric, are you listening?). You follow the "card" for blackjack (and if you don't have the card, quickly text Leland).

But what is the optimum strategy for betting sports?

My original strategy is this:
a) You need to pick right more than 52.4% of the time in order to be a long-term winner
b) If you feel that you can, then by all means pick as many games as possible - if a) is true, then you will be a winner.

And so, I'm getting this reputation, right? I go to the window with $500 and come back with a stack of betting slips thicker than a William Faulkner novel.

But is that truly the right thing to do to maximize my winnings for the NCAA tournament?

I've been in search of a book out there that outlines the best strategies for a sportsbook. To my surprise, there is not much out there! There's 500 books on poker, 100 on blackjack, 50 on craps - but none at all specifically talking about sports betting strategies.

I've come across tow general gambling books with chapters on sports betting - and they both say the same thing....

1) Don't bet the whole board, but find the few (emphasis on FEW) games where you feel there is real value
2) Shoot your gun at those. It is much easier to go 3-1 on games you believe in than to go 13-11 across the board - and you are opening yourself up to the vig on that 13-11 scenario.

And I have to say, this makes sense.

Although I have proven (ahem! beating my chest proudly!) that I can beat the spread in the NFL 3 years in a row (each year, over 200 decisions/year over the 52.4% mark) - that doesn't mean squat in betting the NCAA Basketball tournament.

So - I think I will change my strategy this year - instead of having 15-17 bets on the 16 games each day on Thu/Fri, I will try to limit myself to 6-8 best value bets each day. This will allow me to increase my bet for each game...and therefore trying to maximize profits.

But this is MUCH easier said (for me ) than done.

What's the point on being in a sportsbook on NCAA tournament weekend when you don't have any action - however small - on each game? I usually make some "A", "B", and "C" picks for each day - usually encompassing all the games - and the total of my picks are close to the amount of games each day. Plus we have the random NIT games, women's games......

but I know realize that I will have to resist that temptation if I want to win money.

The main question that I keep coming back to is:

"Are you going to Vegas in order to have fun, or are you going to win money? The answer to that question determines your strategy."

And you know what? Honestly, I don't know how to answer that question in regard to the book.

So - assuming I am there wanting to win money, I am planning to change my strategy this year. I will bet a total of ~20 games or so all weekend (7 on Thu, 7 on Fri, 3 on Sat & Sun, for example). I fire the betting gun at those games and see what happens.

(On an aside - I've been thinking about the amount for each bet. Given a sports bankroll of $X, what should the bet on each game be in order to minimize the change that the bank will go to $0 after the 20 bets ----- like "Black Friday" last year, when I went 5-15. If I go 5-15 again - which is about a 4% chance, a risk I can accept - what is the bet on each game given a bank roll of $Y?)

So - I'll make 20 big bets, and the rest I may do some small parlays on. But you know that will drive me crazy when I go 6-14 on the big bets, and do well on the small bets..... that will kill me.

I'm practicing now - just picking a few games each day. I went 2-1 yesterday; I have 5 (and only 5! for today:
Lousiville PK
Loy-MD -2
Manhattan -9
Wisconsin +4
Arizona -5

Let's see what happens.

Thoughts on the new strategy? I really am interested to hear others' thoughts.

WGC Challenge - Third Round

OK, here is the challenge. You have $100. How would you bet given these odds for tomorrow's WGC matches?

Post in the comments.....



WGC Matchup
Time
Matchup
1:10 p.m.
Justin Rose (36) vs. Charles Howell III (45)

Justin Rose +105 Charles Howell III -125
1:20 a.m.
Ian Poulter (28) vs. Trevor Immelman (12)

Ian Poulter +105 Trevor Immelman -125
1:30 p.m.
Shaun Micheel (62) vs. Paul Casey (14)

Shaun Micheel +145 Paul Casey -165
1:45 p.m.
Niclas Fasth (38) vs. Geoff Ogilvy (11)

Niclas Fasth +130 Geoff Ogilvy -150
2:00 p.m.
Nick O'Hern (16) vs. Tiger Woods (1)

Nick O'Hern +350 Tiger Woods -500
2:10 p.m.
Henrik Stenson (9) vs. Aaron Baddeley (40)

Henrik Stenson -130 Aaron Baddeley +110
2:20 p.m.
Chad Campbell (34) vs. David Toms (18)

Chad Campbell +155 David Toms -170
2:30 p.m.
Stephen Ames (39) vs. Stewart Cink (23)

Stephen Ames +105 Stewart Cink -125

Vegas planning

OK - this post is for planning for the Vegas trip coming up. Lot of questions to be answered:

1) Right now, we have 8 people in for the trip, with 4 or 5 being there Wed night.
So does that mean 2 rooms or 3? I expect Mr. Derek "Eleanor Roosevelt" to speak up on this one.

2) Golf - how many rounds? I don't know if I want to play 2 rounds. Derek- want to take my place on one of those rounds with Wiz, Don, and Mike?

3) Dinner - any ideas or thoughts for dinner for any night?

I promise... last post on the Browns

On the day that the news came out that our star-crossed center, LeCharles Bentley, will undergo more surgery and may be out for 2007 and beyond, I wanted to wrap up the NFL season with this final post on the Browns.

You can blame Derek for this. On a phone call last week, Derek asked what I thought about Romeo. I said "well, of course I want him gone", irked that he didn't know that already. He replied that he didn't see any such announcement on the blog -and he's right. I never posted my thoughts on our beloved buffet-seeker Crennel.

So let me entertain you with the three key incidents this season that caused me to turn against Romeo. Theoretically, I think 2 years is not enough time to evaluate a head coach. Too many factors are out of your control, and progress that may be made may not be visible just by the W-L record (see Belicheck, 1991-92). However, I am now convinced that things aren't going to get better next year with Romeo.

1. Strategy adjustments between weeks: The first Pittsburgh game really hurt. Seeing the inbreds rally from a 10-0 halftime deficit - and it should have been much better than that for the Browns - was a stake to my heart, and it hurt even more because I was in Vegas and had to hear all those damn illerates jump up and down like they won the Super Bowl. Dammit.

That game hurt - and it hurt bad. But those losses happen. Once you take a step back, it was easy to see what happened - the Pittsburgh line was able to block our 4-man rush, and they spread the field with 4 receivers. They found the openings in our zone, and Ben dinked and dunked down the field three times in the th quarter. We could not stop that kind of offense - especially if we rushed just 4.

The next week we had Cincinnati at home. Their offense was very similar to what Pittsburgh ran in the 2nd half - los of receivers, an accurate quarterback, and a fairly decent line.

The question was - what would Romeo and company do differently to avoid the opposing offense to move up and down the field, like Pittsburgh in the 2nd half the week before?

Answer: Absolutely nothing.

We rushed 4, played the same soft zone - and Palmer, TJ and Chad had a field day. We lost 30-0 to the Bengals at home in a game that wasn't even that close. It was unbelievably frustrating to watch that. I don't know how many times I screamed "DO SOMETHING!!!" at the TV.

Yes, we may have been battered in the secondary, and we don't have a great pass rush - but jees, throw in some blitzes or something. We seemed to be taking Bobby Knight' s advice regarding what the woman should do when confronted....

2) Play calling. The one play that did it for me was the 2nd Pittsburgh game. This was the freezing cold Thursday night game on NFL network (that, oh, about 5, 417 viewers watched). We got the ball to start, made 2 first downs, punted; Pit made a first down, punted, and we started to move. So here we are late in the 1st quarter, 0-0, and we have a 3rd and 7 at the Pit 37 or so. One more first down by a pass....

What do we call? A fullback draw up the middle. On 3rd and 7. Against Pittsburgh.

For God's sake, we are 4-8. Throw the damn ball! It made me really question if we are trying to win at all.

What happened next is pure Cleveland:

a- we punt, and it's a good one! We back Pit up on its own 2
b - NFL network throws up a graphic saying the Steelers have not had a 95 yard (or more) TD drive since 2000 or so
c- yes, of course, the Steelers go 8 plays, 98 yards for a TD.

(I've got another play call - the anti-game of the year, Cle (3-12) vs TB (4-11). TB kicked off, but was offsides; they rekicked and kicked the ball out of bounds. We get the ball at the 45! A couple of first downs gave us 1st and 10 at the 30.... after 3 more plays, we have 4th and 7 at the TB 27. We are moving into a slight wind.

What to call? What to call? Again, first drive of the game here...

Browns line up in FG formation....

Snap directly to the kicker Dawson! He punts the ball! The ball hits and rolls...and rolls.... to the 5...4...3...2...1...end zone. Touchback. )

3) Game management. Let's go to the TB game. We are in the game, down only 19-0 , early in the 4th quarter. We just can't stop the Tim Rattay juggernaut.
Anyway, TB has the ball - Rattay goes back to pass ... he's hit! The ball is loose! The Browns pick it up and run 54 yards for the touchdown!

14:00 left in the game... now it's 19-6. What to do?

Now I know this may be hindsight, but Romeo did NOT go for 2. Going for 2 would make it 19-8, and get within 11- a TD and a FG. Instead, he kicked the XP and were down 19-7, requiring 2 TDs.

I didn't pick that mistake up at the time -I was too busy cheering I think - but this is the head coaches' JOB to know these situations. C'mon Romeo - did you leave that chart at the Old Country Buffet?

These three examples were in games in November or later - this is now late in year 2 of the Romeo regime. Who would think that year 3 would be any different? Why would it change now?

He's not going to learn. In fact, I submit he's gotten worse. Time to cut ties now before we lose another season down the drain... which is most likely what 07 will bring us - another year of going down the drain.

Wedding Crasher

So I crashed a wedding on Saturday. My sister is getting married later this year and is scoping out bands for the reception (I've retired my iPod DJ headphones), so we (me, my sister, and her fiancee) went to a wedding where one of the bands she is considering was playing.

The wedding was at the Tremont Grand hotel in Baltimore, on N. Charles Street. We walked into the room (a nice, but fairly typical hotel ballroom) and surveyed the crowd. Approximately 220 people, with the demographics of your typical wedding crowd. We were hoping to arrive late enough that everyone there had already had 4-5 cocktails and I think that we just about nailed it. After surveying the crowd for a minute or so, we headed for the bar. Marisa's (the bride) selection is a chocolate martini and Mike's (the groom) selection is a Budweiser. Hello, Baltimore! I opt for a Jack and Coke. No Jack, says the bartender, only Wild Turkey. Yikes! Wild Turkey and Coke it is. After we grab drinks, we settle into the far corner of the room to try to watch the band as unobtrusively as possible. Within 3 minutes, a guy comes walking up to us and asks us who we know. "We're friends of friends" I reply. Who invites friends of friends to a wedding?!?! Luckily for me, this guy is a dope. He's English and claims to be an engineer on a private yacht in Ft. Lauderdale. After some small talk, we finally ditch Capt. Stubing. My sister and her financee decide to try to talk to the band leader (they just stopped for a break) and I head back for another Turkey and Coke!

While at the bar a girl introduces herself to me. Wedding crasher rookie mistake #1, I give her my real name. Her name is Ariel, and she's Marisa's first cousin. Uh-oh, I can see this ending badly. Who do I know, Mike or Marisa? "I'm a friend of a friend." Luckily for me, our late arrival works in my favor again. She is WAY too hammered to care what I'm saying and leaves to talk to some other people. 30 seconds later, I am looking around the room to find my sister and I hear, "Leland!...LELAND!" Oh no--it's my new friend, and she wants to introduce me to a group of people. I walk over and meet her drunk friends and her mom. Luckily for me, they are all as drunk as she is and very easily entertained. I end up talking to Ariel and her mom for 10-15 minutes and really get them laughing (O/U on combined cocktails between Ariel and her mom = 16.5--I realize that I'm really not this funny.) At this point in the conversation, the bride starts walking over. Holy shit! If I don't get out of here, I can just see this ending very badly. I quickly excuse myself and head for the exit. Whew! That was enough wedding crashing for my maiden voyage.

Until next weekend, that is...

Party this weekend!

Let's lighten this up...

If I ever got this invitation to a party like this in Vegas, I'd have so many questions....

I'll list my questions in the comments.

Random Thoughts

Time for some College Basketball blogging!

1) I arrived back in Dayton last night from Iowa---the FRONT PAGE story on the Dayton Daily News was:
"City prepares for BIG game"
It took me a while to figure out what they were talking about. (And if I didn't know immediately, I'm sure none of you would know).

They were talking about the Raiders - the Wright State Raiders! #9 Butler (11-1, 23-2) comes to town for a Horizon league showdown against Wright State (11-2, 18-9). If Wright State wins, it's their first win over a top 10 team and also would LEAD the Horizon over the Butler Bulldogs.
I've actually played basketball on Wright State's floor--- their arena is located less than a mile from my old office in Dayton.
Butler favored by 4 on the road, o/u is 119.5. Tip off at 7 pm from the Nutter Center.

It's a sad year when Wright State is playing in the biggest game of the year for all of the SW Ohio college teams (Cincy, Xavier, Dayton, Miami...).

2) You may have seen that the NCAA invited 20 writers to participate in a mock bracket creation process. They locked the writers in a hotel and instructed them to create a bracket in 36 hours. Here's the story from Jay Bilas.

The story laid out the process for filling the bracket - and it enlightened the authors along the way. The key points that Jay Bilas (and others) got out of it:
1) there is no way the committee could keep track of the # of bids per conference. That is not talked....whoever are the best at large teams are selected, no matter what conference they are from.
2) the "interesting" matchups are not created by the NCAA for CBS's sake; they just happen by coincidence.

Hmmm..that's nice to hear, but it is what the committee says every year! Every year, the commnetators say "the big east deserves 6 bids", the committee says "we just look at the teams, not the # of bids from a conference" - and then the bracket comes out and the committee is ripped.

It seems like these commentators - Bilas and Digger are two of the worst * - have never gone through a bracket-filling exercise before today. This mock committee was the best thing to happen to educate these guys and show how tough this process is. Maybe they will remember these principles that have been spelled out to them before as we head into March.

* - Yes, I am ignoring Vitale, who every year makes the case for every bubble team and whose mock bracket would include 87 teams. He's beyond hope. But for Digger? There's no excuse. **

**- and I am ignoring Billy "any hoops played east of Virginia or north of Maryland is CRAP" Packer. I don't think he realizes how much creidibility he lost last year with his rant on the MVC and mid-majors.

3) God, Maryland is in BIG BIG BIG trouble. I am predicting that they need to win TWO of the upcoming three games against Duke (2) and UNC. That's the only way they can get back inthe discussion.

4) More ACC: a commenter to Lunardi's chat on ESPN actually asked a question about Duke - if they may not even make the NCAAs! It's not as preposterous as you think! They are 5-5 in conference and have FOUR road games left (Md, UNC, Clem, BC). It's easy to see them losing 3! One more home loss makes them 9 losses. A 7-9 team in the ACC would be squarely on the bubble - what if the team's name is Duke?

Who would have guessed that Duke's best win on Feb 10 is a win vs. Air Force? That win may be what ultimately saves the Blue Devils.

I predict them to be over-seeded as a #7 seed in the tourney, playing someone like BYU or Vanderbilt or George Washington or Missouri State. And Duke will lose.

Ah, IT does it again....

A great HR/IT story from the Iowa City plant:

1) On Thursday, a decision is made to terminate a line technician named "Pete".
2) Communication of termination will occur on Friday at 1 pm.... Pete works 2nd shift (from 2-10 pm) this week.
3) Manager submits request to the site IT folks to shut down Pete's access to the network/email effective Friday morning.
4) IT folks - who are contractors - complete request at 4 pm Thursday
5) IT folks send out email that request has been completed. Email sent out around 5 pm, and indicates that access will be turned off at 8 am Friday.

You can see this coming a mile away, huh?

6) On that email, IT folks cc:s Pete, the terminated employee.
7) Pete comes in for 2nd shift on Thursday, logs in.... oh, what's this? Sees the email from IT.

Oh yeah, morale on that team is great right now.

Thank you Hereford 9

Those great bloggers at Hereford 9 have been searching the internet for months to find something useful to post about. In the past they have brought us great posts like "top 5 movies" and "man I'm lonely".

Since the only viewer traffic it gets anymore is from that help guy from Myspace, I figured I'd bring the link over here. If you were at the wedding in December this will probably make you laugh. If not, then whatever.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=2pEKEd-FQtQ

Maintain Radio Silence

Sorry for being MIA, but I'm personally being sued for defamation of character on some ex-employees that I terminated early last year. Its been a killer week.

But I would like to take a second and thank Tony Dungy for not kicking that field goal late in the game that would of screwed my under and my Teaser. Why didn't you kick that FG? That would of put you up by 2 touchdowns with 1:41 left. I almost cried when I didn't see the kicker come out on the field. One of the happiest moments in my life. Thanks!

Super Bowl 41 Pick

Been pretty quiet around here for the last few days. I've been swamped at work helping to lead a technical symposium and who knows what Derek has been doing.

The Super Bowl for me, recently, seems to be an afterthought to the regular season. For me, the hard-core analysis of the games ends with the Championship games. That's when my intense interest for the NFL ends. The two weeks between the championship games and the Super Bowl are filled with fluff and actually lessens my interest for the big game.

It's like having a great golf round through 16 holes - and then having to wait 30 minutes on the 17th tee while 4 other groups play the par-3. The two weeks - and all the sideshows - disrupt the flow of the season in a big way.

It's not just the Super Bowl - I have the same feeling about the NCAA tournament as well. I get so jacked up for the 1st and 2nd round games; the 2nd weekend is great as well - but by the time the final four weekend comes around, it's overhyped and usually involves teams I hate. I mean, who here can get excited about a UConn-Duke final, for instance? One team is completely overrated, overhyped, with a coach the media loves to love- and the other is Duke!

The last final I watched from start to finish (besides the Md-Indiana final) would be... hmmm... Kentucky-Arizona in 1997? But I can give you the greatest upsets in the 1st/2nd round every year since 1987 or so.

So the Super Bowl, for me, is an excuse to party and not be overly concerned with the ins and outs of the game. My prediction is based on the key matchup: the Colts offense vs. the Bears D.

I'm not convinced at all that the Colts are the overwhelming favorite here. Let's review the facts:

1) They scored 38 points at home versus a defense that was clearly beat up and undermanned and that was suffering through heat exhaustion/flu with the dome temperatures artificially inflated. Good for them that they won, yes - but let's not think this was a explosive performance against a great defense.

What about the other playoff games?

2) They scored 23 points vs. Kansas City at home - that same defense that:
- let up 30 points to the Jaguars,
- let up 45 points to the Steelers (!)
- let up 31 points to the Browns (!!)
- and is coached by Herman Edwards

How impressive is that?

(and yes, that's the one Browns reference for the post)

3) In their next game, they didnot score a TD vs. the Ravens. Baltimore's defense is good - ok, great- but this year it was not oneof the all time best and probably was close to the Bears' defense in terms of performance.

Look, we all know Peyton plays well when the conditions are perfect and their line is able to contain the rush - but this is the Bears. They will disrupt the Peyton with their line play and stunts. And - the game is on grass, not in a dome. The COlts on grass/outdoors this year:

at NYG: 26 pts
at NYJ: 31
at Den:34 (!)
at NE: 27
at Dal: 14 (!)
at Ten: 17
at Jax: 17
at Hou: 24
at bal: 15

The trend is not great.

So - can the Bears offense score enough to pull it out? I think Lovie Smith would be wise to copy the strategy of the Giants in Super Bowl 25 - use a ball control offense and keep the ball away from the other team. The question is whether Rex can actually execute that sort of offense.

The Colts' D is good, but not as good as Berman and co. have made it out to be over the past 2 weeks. Again, they let up 8 points against a Herm Edwards-led Chiefs team, and held the Ravens to 6 points in probably McNair's worst game this year. But they let up 34 to the Pats, a good offense. I'm not saying the Bears are as good on offense as the Pats, but they are playing better than the Ravens' o right now.

I'm calling the upset, as Lovie outcoaches Dungy and the Bears' D rattles Peyton.

Chicago 23, Indianapolis 20.

(post edited at 1:15 pm ET).

best bets for today:
Chicago +6 1/2
Under 47 1/2

After tonight, we can then concentrate on the really important things, like the NCAA tournament and why Virginia is in the driver's seat for a bid while the Terps still need to win a few games down the stretch to impress anyone.

I have a feeling the NIT will provide a Champs Sports Bowl rematch.....