Election preview: 2006 US Senate - The Race to 51

Here we go in with the first of our posts regarding the upcoming elections. We start with the easiest races to handicap and preview, the US Senate races. It's easy in the sense that there aren't many competitive races (compared to the House) and the high profile of the races means that there is a lot of polling and information available (unlike the Governor's races).

The current breakdown is 55 R, 44, D and 1 I in the Senate.
Of those, 40 R and 27 D is not up for election this year.
In order to win the Senate, the Democrats need to win 25 of the races this year to get the 51 seats and control.

We are going to rate them in order of a Democratic victory.

Democrat Locks:
28. MA: Kennedy (D) vs Chase
29. NY: Clinton (D) vs Spenser
30. WI: Kohl (D) vs Lorge
31. CA: Feinstein (D) vs Mountjoy
32. DE: Carper (D) vs Ting
33. NM: Bingaman (D) vs McCulloch
34. HI: Akaka (D) vs Thielen
35. ND: Conrad (D) vs Gortberg. How North Dakota, a state that votes 60% Republican in national elections, has 2 Democratic senators is a political mystery.
36. FL: Nelson (D) vs Harris. Yes, this is Katherine Harris of the 2000 Presidential Election fame.

Independent Locks:
37. VT: Sanders (I) vs Tarrant. This is Bernie Sanders, the self-delcared Socialist, who looks like will make a move from the House to the Senate.

Likely Independent:
38. CT: Lieberman (I) vs LaMont (D) vs Schlesinger (R). It is more and more likely that Joe will hold on. Lamont has faded badly over the past two months since his win in the democratic primary. If he win, we assume he will caucus with the Democrats.

Likely Democratic (not a lock, but close):
39. WV: Byrd (D) vs. Raese . The oldest man in the Senate will survive.
40. NE: Nelson(D) vs. Ricketts.

Leaning Democratic, in order of a Democratic win:
41. MN: Klouchbar (D) vs Kennedy (R). Wow. What an opportunity for the R's that has been blown. The incumbent, Mark Dayton (D) , is widely regarded as the worst senator in the nation. He retired; the R's put up a decent candidate ( a multi-term Rep) - and the weak Demo candidate is up 10-15 points in all polls. Wow.
42. MI: Stabenow (D) vs. Bouchard. It's not over yet given the sad state of Michigan, but Debbie may hang on.
43. WA: Cantwell (D) vs McGavick. A solid 8-10 point lead for the incumbent. It's not over, but...
44. MD: Cardin (D) vs. Steele . I'm not ready to rule Steele out yet, given the race factor and the boringness of Cardin as a candidate.

Toss-ups, in order of a Democratic win:
45. PA: Casey (D) vs Santorum. Santorum has come back from the dead before, but I think he's too far behind now to win. An incumbent still polling 39-43% at ths stage is in big trouble - even if his opponent is at 43-48%. The undecideds are not all going to vote for teh incumbent, are they? Espeically if he is as polarizing as Mr. Dog Sex, Rick Santorum.

46. RI: Whitehouse (D) vs Chafee. Chafee is widely considered as THE most liberal Republican; he survived a serious primary challenge this year from the conservative wing, but survived. The Chafee name means a lot in Rhode Island; will that trump the anti-Bush vote?

47. MT: Tester (D) vs Burns. Another R incumbent in trouble. Burns is old, has connections to Abramoff (the lobbyist), and is prone to gaffes. Tester is the perfect WEstern Democratic candidate - a hunter and rancher that talks plainly and seems very Perot-ish. He is the complete opposite of Pelosi and Ed Kennedy, which helps him immensely.

48. NJ: Menendez (D) vs Kean. The only D incumbent in trouble, running neck and neck with the son of a popular governor (and 9/11 co-chair), Tom Kean. THere are corruption charges swirling around the incumbent Menendez, but when has that stopped New Jersey before?

49. OH: Brown (D) vs DeWine. This is disappointing. DeWine is a good guy, has made no ethical mistakes or gaffes, and yet is being bogged down by 1) the Ohio Rep party (more later) and 2) the current anti-Bush environment. I know the polls say Brown (a NE Ohio liberal) is up 3-5, but I just can't see DeWine losing.

50. MO: McAskill(D) vs Talent. Another R incumbnent who has done nothing wrong who may also get swept in a possible wave. Ohio and Missouri are two racfes to watch - if the Republican incumbents go down and go down hard, then we have a tsunami on our hands. If one survives, then it's a moderate wave. If both survive, then the Democratic "storm" is overblown.

51. TN: Ford(D) vs Corker. A fascinating race. Will Tennessee elect a black Democratic Memphis congressman - who, incidentally, films his commercials in a church! - over a traditional Rep candidate who was beaten down in a tough primary. The key is the rednecks in Eastern Tennessee - will those people actually pull the lever for a black man who is based 400 miles away in Memphis and really has nothing in common geography-wise. I know that sounds harsh (the racial part), but that's what D's have to overcome to get a majority.

52. VA: Webb (D) vs Allen. After all the gaffes by Allen, he still seems to have a 3-5 point lead here. I think his stature is too much in the state and he will pull through by 5 points.

Leaning Republican:
53: AZ: Kyl (R) vs. Pederson. This race seems to be tightening to 5-9 points, but Kyl should come through in this red state.

Solid R:
54. ME: Snowe (R) vs Bright
55. NV: Ensign (R) vs Carter - the son of Jimmy Carter.
56. WY: Thomas (R) vs Groutage
57. UT: Hatch (R) vs Ashdown
58. TX: Hutchison (R) vs Radnofsky
59. MS: Lott (R) vs Fleming
60: IN: Lugar (R) unopposed

So - the Democrats have to win 7 of the 8 "toss up" races in order to take the Senate. This seems dauting, but history has shown us that if there is a moderate wave, the tossup races all will fall one way. It looks like control of the Senate will be determined in the back hills of Missouri or Tennessee - if the rural voters will turn their back on the Republican party and vote in an urban Democratic candidate (a black man in TN or a white woman in MO). We will see.

Positive Ramblings

Well to change the subject from Eric being a prick to discussing how much enjoyment I'm getting out of tonight's ref in the AZ Chi game. I have Ben crying after every penalty by saying "you dig". Holding Offense 10 yard penalty repeat first down...You dig. Where did they get this guy? I've never seen him before.

Hey check out the house that the wedding will be at. I'm starting to get a little excited. We fired the caterer because they were outrageous and now we will be making our own food. Hmmmm...Should be very interesting. This might be the first pot luck reception in the US.

Anyone watching baseball? What is up with the radar gun. It is clearly 5-6 mph higher than normal. It had Zito in the low 90s and he hasn't seen 88 since 2004. Its ridiculous.

Wiping one's ass: Ben and I had a very disturbing discussion the other day. With his hands all jacked up I asked him
how the hell he is wiping his ass. Well the conversation took a weird turn and I come to find out that he used to stand up while he wiped his ass. Standing up??? He said that is how he was taught growing up and just changed a couple of years ago and was pissed that his parents told him to stand up before wiping since it is 10 times better sitting down. Graphic details followed.


A's recap: Wow, I really didn't see the Macha firing happening. After last year of firing and then hiring, I thought that he was here to stay, but I'm very happy that he is gone. Anyway, what can I say about the ALCS. The walk off homer eally didn't hurt me as much as other plays in the past, since we were down 0-3. And this clip from Athletics Nation pretty much sums it up for me as well.

For me, the difference this year is the lack of a villain. In the past, we have been knocked out of the playoffs by the slim margin of one final game, which was lost to the evil teams of New York, Boston, and the worst opponent of all--ourselves. This year, it's impossible to point to one play, to one player, and even to one game as the deciding factor in our demise. We flat got beat by Detroit, a wonderful success story in itself, and I really do wish them the best. The Tigers are good for baseball, and it's nice to see some important games being played in a city not named New York. They don't have an obnoxious catch-phrase attached to them (see: The Idiots Who Cowboy Up, or The Piranhas, The Best Lineup Ever, or my favorite, The Perfect Small Ball Squad), they don't have a large payroll; they don't have annoying announcers, they don't really have a superstar, and more than likely, they're going to win the whole thing.

The Gooch

I'm tired of this shit. Totally tired of it. You see these men to my right? They are going to Eric's house to do a hit since he can't understand the basic concepts of the gooch and gambling courtesy. Now the two events don't seem to severe, but when they come from a guy who understands how I am, I get pissed.

1. Saturday morning- Eric and I are having a very pleasant conversation about college football and I tell him my wagers for the day and we move on. In one of our later conversations he tells me that he is rooting for a meaningless FG by Syracuse to cover the spread. What??? Did he bet on the game? No. Then why the fuck is he saying that to me. This was one of my bigger games of the day for me and he is openly rooting against me. Well what happens? Syracuse gets a late FG and covers the spread and I lose. I'm pissed. Why? Since Eric had no interest in the game but he for some reason decided to root against me. And for all the real gamblers out there, we know that Eric is the root cause on why WV didn't cover. That is what we call a dick move. Its one thing if we both have money on the game but on different teams, and this happens all the time and it is fine to talk shit to each other, but in this scenario, where Eric had no vested interest and I had a decent amount of money on the game (and he knew this) I felt that it was wrong and he should be punished by taking us all out to eat at Bobby Flays. All in favor say yes. Yes. Ok lets move on to issue number two.

2. Watching the A's game on Saturday and they are up 3-0. Eric texts me the following message "Good Job so far". Now I would let it pass if it was my Dad or Carol doing this since they have no idea what they are doing, but Eric knows how I am with this type of thing. I hold him to a higher standard. Don't gooch it. Don't say a word. Why would you ever do this? I mean even Ben knows not to say anything to me about this stuff. He doesn't understand but he knows. And of all people, Eric should know the best. So his punishment for this is to wear a shirt that I'm making him out in Vegas. It is the Rules of the Gooch shirt. This was Carol's idea and I love it.

Week 6 NFL Picks: Switch?

After Bob Barker introduces the 25 ladies from the Tuscaloosa Tuesday Lunch Club in the opening scene, and then Morty Ferdman needs 24 attempts to pull out the correct numbers in "Three Strikes", the show needs some quick games to make up the time and end by 11:59 Eastern.

Enter "Switch?" (a name that should have one of those upside-down question marks before it). It's a simple game for two crap prizes that is designed to save time.

If you're not familiar with the game, the contestant has the two prizes in front of them and a price for each one. The contestant either keeps the prices where they are, or they elect to "Switch" the prices. If you are correct, you win both the armoir and the snowmobile.

So - "Switch?" is the theme for this week. Do you elect to believe the conventional wisdom for the games, or do you "Switch?" it around and go the other way?

Cin-TB : Conv. Wisdom: Bruce Gradowski is a good QB.
SWITCH! No way they beat Cinci in his 2nd start. Cadillac is suffering through the sophomore jinx. Cin 27, TB 16.

Buf-Det: CW: Detroit's best chance for a win.
SWITCH! Did you see Kitna last week? Single-handledly gave money to those betting against the Lions. Buf 17, Det 14.

Phi-NO: CW: Philly is good enough to beat NO on the road.
I pass. I can't figure this one out. I wish I could play "Danger Price" or "Blank Check" instead. Phi 23, NO 20.

NYG-Atl: CW:Atl is a force to be reckoned with.
SWITCH! I am on the Giants bandwagon, especially with Eli on 2 of my fantasy teams. NYG 27, Atl 20.

Ten-Was: CW: Was should have no problem with Ten.
SWITCH! Like Chris from the Soprano's, I can't handle my addiction. On the Titans bandwagon I go again.
Was 16, Ten 13.

Car-Bal: CW: Bal's offense has been exposed as a struggling offense.
SWITCH! Fooled you, didn't I? Bal may have problems on offense, but did you see Carolina last week? They DID NOT convert a 3rd down vs. the Browns in the entire game!
Bal 20, Car 13.

UPDATE: Oh Dear. Ordonez just hit the HR. I can't imagine what is going on in Derek's place right now. Sorry about that.

Sea-StL: CW: StL is a flawed 4-1 team.
SWITCH! Sure, they may be flawed, but they are good enough to win this one with Alexander out! StL 23, Sea 17.

Hou-Dal: CW: Dal will heal up here vs. the Texans.
I'LL KEEP IT! I can't imagine the Texans scoring over 13 points. Dal 27, Hou 10.

SD-SF: CW: Easy game for SD after the last 2 Chargers' games.
SWITCH! Well, SF will give them a game. It may not be as close as the final score, however. SD 24, SF 17.

KC-Pit: CW: Big Ben will finally break out vs. the Chiefs.
I'LL KEEP IT! If Leinart can look that good vs. KC, I think Big Ben will do just as well. Pit 27, KC 10.

Mia-NYJ: CW: The Jets are playing Miami at the perfect time.
I'LL KEEP IT! Miami is a mess. Harrington on the road? Yes, please. NYJ 24, Mia 13.

Oak-Den: CW: A blowout for Den.
SWITCH! I have no reason why. I just think this will be close. Den 20, Oak 10.

Chi-Az: CW: Always take a Monday night underdog.
I'LL KEEP IT! My golden rule once again. Boy, this is shaky though. Chi 24, Az 17.

Results after last week:
Eric: 12-2-2 last week; overall: 42-33-4
Derek: 9-6-1 last week; overall: 35-44-1

16 best bets for this week:
Cin -5
Buf/Det Under 40
NYG +3
NYG/Atl Over 41
Ten +10
Ten/Was Under 40
Bal -3
Stl +3
Dal -12 1/2
Hou/Dal Under 43
SF +10
Pit -7
NYJ -2.5
Oak +15
Den/Oak Under 36
Az +11

I'm taking 4 double-digit underdogs? Yikes. Hope it doesn't work out like this contestant...

MTV

When will I become too old for MTV.

Jeez, they keep on producing shit that I want to watch. Has anyone seen the promo for True Life: Stanton Island? Ohhhhh, I'm so excited. This might be the best True Life since they covered the New Jersey wedding stories and that one guy was screaming on the cell phone to the limo driver on how he was going to "gut" him. Classic. Tuesday night at 10:00, everyone set your Tivo

Then there is the Duel- I love this shit, but what is up with the rules. The explanation of the rules was absolutely hilarious. And I started to like Tina during the last show, but now she is up to her old self. Wes is still my boy. Ohhhh, I'm so excited.

And Two a Days??? Shit that final game was exciting. I'm still waiting for Max to tell his step dad "I don't want your life". Great show. Correction, excellent show. I was more amped to watch this than Laguna. And what is going on in Laguna. Please take Jessica off the show. And I promise you that I will take out Cameron if I ever bump into him in my hood. His Dana Point privileges have been revoked. Dana Point for life.

I remember when....

My old roommate Jeff Cox couldn't kill a fawn when he used to hunt. Now he is killing massive elk in New Mexico. He's all growns up. Congrats Jeff. Very impressive.

And I was the elk last Saturday as I took another beating in College Football. But as all good gamblers know, you must get back on that horse and test your skills until your bank account is down to zero. So here we go. 12 games. I have a lot of ground to make up since Eric went off last week.

WV -25
K State Under 45.5: This better come in or I'm done with this one.
Oregon -9: The Mormon is out, so Oregon should roll.
Ohio St -14: Why is MSU getting so much credit? Second week in a row where the line in my opinion is about 14 points off.
AZ -3.5
Louisville -25
Auburn +2: I was going to take Florida, but then I just saw a stat that Auburn is 6-0 against ranked teams at home and has dominated FL over the last couple of years.
Washington St +8.5: Same as above, but saw a stat that WSU is 10-0 against CA at home.
VA +3: Fuck this. MD better pay me off sometime this year.
Michigan -6: I can't wait for this game. I know that Manningham is out, but the refs in the game will make sure they win since the Ohio St vs. Michigan game is going to be crazy. My buddy Jeff just got tickets and they were going for $2,500 a pop.
Texas Tech -7: Colorado is now in the Stanford zone
FSU -22.5:

Memo to A's

You have the Tigers right where you want them.

There is exactly one game tomorrow. Win that game. Nothing else matters except the one game that will be played tomorrow. That is the only thing that is certain. Show up and win that game tomorrow. You do not need to worry about winning four in a row, as four games will not be played tomorrow. Tomorrow's game is a must win, so win that game tomorrow.

Sincerely,

2004 WS Champion Boston Red Sox

This...

begat this...

begat this...

begat this...

bedlam ensues...

Believe!!

Interesting evening last night. Here we go...

1. Tivo- I knew I wasn't going to get home in time for the A's game so I Tivo'd it the game on FX in the morning. Was in meetings all day and then had to go get my CA license at 4:00pm PST (see below for that story). Come home around 6:00pm with some Mexican food, sit down at the table and turn on the game. Where is the game? Why is that crappy Pacino football movie on? Ben slowly gets up and leaves the room as I'm swearing at the Tivo. Change it over to Fox to see what's going on with the Cards-Mets game and there is the A's game in the 5th inning? WTF? Combining that with the A's loss totally ruined my evening.

2. A's chances- Yes we are down 2-0 going to Detroit, but throwing Harden and Haren out there for the next two games still gives me some hope that we can come back. The Loiza decision totally backfired on the A's. Beane and company totally out thought themselves on this one. Makes me a little bit mad and is making the A's blog family go totally insane.

3. CA license- Despite being out here for 3.5 years, I still had a MD license that just expired. Went to the DMV which was very smooth. You actually need to register for an appointment online, which is one of the best ideas. Instead of going there and waiting for hours on end, you register for an appointment, they give you a time, you then show up and there is no waiting. Amazing! This goes for all DMV issues, not just licenses. Does MD have this? Anyway, you need to take a written test even if you have a license from another state. I just barely passed. My new picture is just as bad as my jailhouse MD license picture. I love it.

4. DMV side story- There was a voter registration booth setup outside the DMV manned by two black females. On my way out, I asked if I could register and they both stuttered and said that they were closed. Closed??? So why are you still standing out front? Well we are packing up. Hmmmm, really. So I walked off and got into my car, but I had to go back in since I forgot my MD license at the test place. And who do I see registering some Hispanics??/ Yup, my two black lady friends. I was so pissed off since I felt like they only wanted to register possible democrat voters and not republicans. Now how could they tell I was a republican? Well I was dressed nice and had a job probably. Ohhhh. I'll be here all night. Thanks.

5. Ben- Well I get home last night and Ben is drunk out on the porch in the dark. This is funny or strange since this is how he usually is. He comes in and his hand is all bandaged up. What the hell happened? He said that they finally got approval from the higher ups to do some interior immigration sweeps in some designated neighborhoods. Yes this sounds very stupid, but since we are so close to election day, all interior patrol needs approval from the top level managers since the politicians don't want any surprises. Actually it seemed weird for Ben that they were actually allowed to do this since it has been banned for sometime. Why now? Anyway, Ben and his partner approach a guy and he admits to being an illegal. They go to handcuff and a major scuffle ensues. Now this is in the middle of the day at lunch in a heavily populated area, so they couldn't really manhandle the guy so they were having some issues. Ben explains (and I guess I agree) that its really tough to handcuff a guy who doesn't want to be handcuffed when you can't use full force. He then stated that a lady was just snapping pictures of what was going on, so they were being very careful. Well as the three of them were wrestling around on the ground, the illegal bit Ben about 5 times on the hand. Now just little nibbles, but major bites. Enough so that Ben is off of work for 45 days. And he has a possible lawsuit with the Border Patrol since they took 30 minutes to approve backup since it was in the interior and they didn't want to cause a scene. Imagine if this guy was going for Ben's gun and they took 30 minutes to provide backup.

Flash Player

OK, so my old computer got fried. My new computer doesn't have a flash player installed. Tried to do it and nothing is downloading. I think our company is preventing this. Any ideas on how to get the flash player on my computer?

2006 ALCS

I haven't been happier to be low on the radar since now I don't have to listen to Buck and McCarver do my fucking games. Seriously, this in itself makes my season. Hey, who is that doing the A's game? Lou Pinella? Shouldn't he be in NY right now.

So do I like my chances more against the Tigers than the Yanks? Yes of course. That Yanks lineup and the inability of Zito to pitch well in NY allows me to let out a sigh of relief that we will not have to face these guys. Not like it is going to be easy against the Tigers, since they have top notch pitching, a great bullpen, some speed, and solid defense, but it is making me smile that its not the Yanks.

This A's team is unlike those in the past, which also brings a smile to my face. For those of you who haven't watch an A's game this year, they sport a great defense, a legit #4 hitter, an excellent bullpen, and a coach that seems to be doing very well right now. They bunt and steal when needed and have a hacker in Payton who doesn't walk. And for those of you who never read Moneyball I won't go into the fact that it isn't about OBP and walks, but rather finding value, so that is why we have changed so much over the last couple of years. But that can all change with one game. This series is going to come down to pitching with these four things being key for the A's to win:

• The Gambler- Its embarrassing to say this but we can't hit Kenny Rogers. Watching him shut down the Yanks made me laugh since that is how we look everytime we face him. And its not just this year, where he is 2-0 against us, but also in years past when he was with Texas (11-2 since he left the A's). He will be going in game 3 and 7. Ugh. Rogers pitching game 7 against us? I will cry if he shuts us down in game 7, even though I expect it. We must beat him at least once to have a chance.
• Zito and Macha- for some reason Macha always leaves Zito in way too long in big games. Fans say they are OK with this since Zito is a #1 and the ace of the staff and he should be given some leeway. No way. This guy dies after 100 pitches. And Macha pulls him only 50% of the time when he hits this mark. And I blame this decision for the reason why we lost to the Sox since it was so obvious he was tired and Manny took him deep. Ugh. If Macha manages him properly we have a great shot at winning.
• Loiza decision- I don't mind it too much. You know what Loiza is going to give you. 3 runs in 6 innings. Very conservative approach by the A's. Harden is too much of a risk. Plus do you really want Loiza to pitch game 7? I much rather have Haren throwing game 7.
• Huston Street- Calero, Kennedy, and Ducherser don't worry me, but Huston does. Huston has been so rocky it really does scare me. I wouldn't mind seeing Kennedy in the 7th, Calero in the 8th and JD closing it out. But Huston is our closer and Macha will go with him. If Street doesn't blow a save we have a really good shot at winning this.

So as Zito throws the first pitch for a ball, I will go back into my playoff bubble for tonight's game. Already some questions on the lineup and the people who are playing, so it looks like Macha has his head in the sand again. Kotsay starting in front of Keilty and Chavez is way to high in the lineup. I'm predicting that the A's will take it in 6 games with Milton Bradley being the hero. Jim Leeland is not dumb enough to pitch to Frank Thomas, so I expect Bradley and Payton to benefit with fastballs.

I hate Brynes

I know it has been a couple of days since he has appeared on Baseball Tonight, but can anyone explain ESPN's reason for putting Brynes on the set? Yes he is funny and a free spirit, and tries really hard on the field, but he is a terrible player. The guy cost the A's many regular season games as well as a playoff series with his bonehead play at the plate. He is a better fit on the Jimmy Kimmel show than on Baseball Tonight. And that is saying alot since we all have to put up with Brantley and Kruk on a nightly basis. Does anyone know if he is still on?

Two Movies and a Debate

Well now....The Tigers vs. A's in the ALCS. Very interesting. And yes I agree that this match up is not what ESPN wanted. These are two teams that ESPN has mostly ignored for most of the season. Seriously, what is baseball tonight going to do? Show clips of Jeter golfing or just talk about A-Rod leaving instead of highlights. And speaking of the Yanks, I do believe that Torre should be fired and they need to get rid of A-Rod. Why??? Because the Yanks must win the World Series to be successful. Everything else is a failure. And they haven't been successful in 6 years, so someone has to go.

Anyway I saw two great movies over the last couple of weeks. Last Kiss and The Departed. Last Kiss was amazing. I hate critics who hate movies about real life and they don't have a happy ending. Great movie, great material, and great acting. And then The Departed was amazing as well. Jack, Leo, and Matt Damon were excellent. Throw in some great lines by Mark Wallberg and Alex Baldwin and this movie is a solid 9.

And I watched the Arnold vs Angelides debate last night for the CA Governor spot. Arnold did very well, which everyone seems to agree with. The major downfall for Angelides seemed to be when he asked Arnold about some spending cuts and Arnold responded with the following:

Arnold :"During the most incredible decline of our economy, just a few years ago, you were part of that," Schwarzenegger said.

Angelides: "Well, you know, your policies are the Bush policies, and I prefer [former President] Clinton to Bush any day,"

Arnold: "No, no, don't talk about Bush, because if you want to do that, go to Iowa"

Angelides: "You went to Ohio, governor; I didn't, You stood with President Bush and you helped him get reelected. And we didn't even get a T-shirt!"

And this did not get a good response from the crowd. It wasn't relevant in what they were talking about. Terrible spot to try to do this trick. Angelides did not come off well at all. The linking to Bush tactic just didn't work at all when they were talking about state issues. Angelides is going to have a tough time beating Arnold since he is linked to the prior Davis team that totally fucked up California. And Arnold did a great job in linking Angelides to Davis, since it was relevant to what they were talking about.

Week 5 NFL Picks: "Range Game"

First of all, don't mistype our blog name. I typed z74.blogpsot.com - instead of an error, I got a real site. Wow.

The Range Game is exactly how I pick my teams/spreads every week. I give myself a 3 or 6 point margin of error (the equivalent of a $150 price range), and then I hit the button on a game when I feel good about the range for the game.

Careful, though! As Bob says, once I push the button, the range finder can not be restarted for another 35 1/2 hours!

OK - on to the picks. I have a lot of favorites this week, which is never good.

Ind 31, Ten 10. I'm off the Titan bandwagon this week.

NYG 27, Was 17. This game will prove once and for all if Coughlin has a hold of this team. I believe he does.

Min 20, Det 10. I expect offensive struggles - Min has no defense and it is apparent that their offense, however, is no great shakes.

NO 17, TB 14. I don't know why I think this game will be close. Maybe Peter King and his Bruce Gradowski love fest has influenced me.

Stl 27, GB 20. After seeing GB's secondary Monday night, us Bulger-owners in fantasy are licking our chops here.

NE 20, Mia 17. A classic letdown game. The Patriots will win, but I think the Bengal game was an outlier - the Pats aren't THAT good.

Chi 28, Buf 13. How can you not expect the Bear defense to score/set up 13 points a game for the team? Did I just gooch them?

Car 20, Cle 17. Every year, we play a good team close on the road early in the season. We won't win, but I expect we will cover.

Jax 23, NYJ 10. Again, everyone is overestimating the Jets after the last two weeks and throwing the Jags under the bus. I don't think this will be close.

KC 27, Az 23. A mistake-filled funfest.

SF 26, Oak 24. Oh, I'm sorry, THIS is the mistake-filled funfest. Let's see... at 4 pm,w e have Dal-Phi, or this game? I think I'll watch this disaster to see more of Art Shell's brilliant coaching decisions.

Phi 21, Dal 16. If you're not sure about a game, go with your gut and who you want to win. I know, it's not good to bet that way, but how can I avoid this game?

SD 20, Pit 13. Same as above.

Den 24, Bal 13. Same as above.

16 best bets this week. Standings:

Eric: last week 7-9; overall 30-31-2
Derek: last week 4-12; overall 26-38-0

Ind/Ten Under 48
NYG -4.5
Min - 6.5
Det/Min Under 40
TB +6.5
Stl -3
Mia +10
Chi -10
Chi/Buf Over 34
Jax -6.5
KC/Az Over 39 1/2
Oak/SF Over 40
Phi -2
Phi/Dal Under 43
SD -3.5
Den -4

Oh, I forgot!

The 2006-06 NHL season started! Here is my season preview:

The Jackets will make the playoffs.

That is all.

Even though...

Even though Jim Leyland is up in my top 5 of most hated figures of Cleveland sports (I rank him #4 above Belicheck), I have to salute the Tigers for their win today over the Yanks. Good job in knocking out the Yanks - and I guess some of the credit has to go to you, Mr Leyland, you always-choke-in-the-postseason-except-when-facing-the-Tribe.

Oakland-Detroit ALCS. Fox's nightmare ALCS comes true.

Quick thoughts after the game

Finally we won!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks Jay for trying to gooch me, but no luck. Sorry for hanging up on you, but that is the only way I can deal with someone who is trying to lay the gooch on me.

Did that whole wedding registry thing. Not too shabby. Pottery Barn, Crate and Barrel, and William Sonoma. From the looks of it I'll have 100 beer glasses and a cake dish. Sounds great!!!!

Bachelor Party is set for November 17-19 in Vegas. Contact Eric if you want to come.

0-1 for the weekend. Great. Thanks Louisville.

Quick Thoughts before the A's game

1. 0-9. Wow. That is really really bad. I'm getting so nervous, despite being up 2-0 in the series.

2. Omar and Marlo- is there a better badass duo out there? The scene in the Wire with these two is absolutely amazing. I'm so glad they never killed off Omar.

3. NHL highlights and scoring updates is now in the category with WNBA. Useless and a waste of everyone's time.

4. I feel so good after cleaning up my Tivo. Yesterday afternoon I spent about 5-6 hours to watch all the Hardballs, Scrubs, Family Guy, Wire, History of Rock, Two a Days, Laguna, and Saturday Night Lives from the past two weeks. I just feel so much better that we now only have a couple of things stored on Tivo instead of 40 shows.

5. 4-12 from last week was killer. Went from being up a ton to being down $300. Anyway, I'm not deviating from my script. Here we go:
Louisville -30
GATech -14*
Kansas St Under 45*
ND -29.5*
ND Over 53
Baylor +5
Cal -4.5 (Vegas is just itching you to take Oregon plus 4.5. Something is up here)
USC Under 49
Clemson -17
Iowa -11
* indicates big money games.

NFL games to round out the mix
49ers -3.5
KC -3
Chicago Over 34.5
MN -6.5
Den -4
Philly Over 43.5

For those who can't wait until Sunday

If you just NEED to bet today and are searching for something - I would suggest the Tigers/NYY Over. RJ has sucked in the playoffs in recent years, and Kenny Rogers is still Kenny Rogers. Just a thought.

Every American male should.....

I believe that every self-respecting man in America....

1) should be able to drive a stick shift;

2) should be able to balance a checkbook; and

3) for God's sake, every red-blooded American should know the basic rules of baseball and be able to run the bases in softball.

I played softball for the first time in about 6 years on Tuesday. I played as a sub on a team from one of the departments at work. I saw two baserunning gaffes that appalled me:

a) runner on 1st, 1 out; short fly to the right fielder - by the time the right fielder caught the ball, our runner on 1st was standing (not moving) on 2nd base;

b) runner on 1st and 2nd, 0 out; the batter hits a ball into the gap. We had some slow runners on base.... and the batter rounded 1st with his head down and ended up on 2nd along with the guy from 1st.

I don't mean to sound racist, but these were white men on our team - these were not some Pakistanis that recently arrived in the US 5 years ago. There is no excuse for this.

If you sign up to play softball, God Dammit,you should know how to run the bases. Freddie and Warren will know that by the time they are 7.

Me? Well, I never got to show off my baserunning. I went 0-for-4 in the doubleheader with 4 pop outs. Damn golf swing...

Oakland A's

Quick Question:

Is it wrong for me to cheer against the A's on Friday night so that I can actually see my first A's playoff game on Saturday?

I'm honestly torn.

Is Sports Reporting THIS bad?

I'm skimming articles on ESPN and CNNsi quickly, and I read two separate stories with factual errors in it. This is not a question of bias - but just out-and-out facts the writer gets wrong!

First, from the quick recaps of NFL Week 4 action on ESPN.com:

• Cleveland 24, Oakland 21It's so bad in Oakland that Cleveland's Charlie Frye -- Charlie Frye! -- can lead a fourth-quarter comeback win.

Gratuitous shot at Charlie notwithstanding - it was not a 4th quarter comeback. We had the lead 24-21 in the 3rd. Nobody scored in the 4th quarter.

Now, from CNNsi, talking about a possible move of the Lions-Vikings game to Monday night because of the Twins-A's series:

Notes: Lions vice president Tom Lewand talked to NFL commissioner Roger Goodell Monday morning about the possible shift for the Minnesota game and said the league and the Vikings had not decided how long they would wait before making a decision. In 1997, the Bears-Dolphins game was switched from Sunday to Monday when the Florida Marlins beat the Cleveland Indians in Game 6 of the World Series on a Saturday, forcing a Game 7 in Miami the next day.


Again, no. The Indians won Game 6 behind World-Series-to-be MVP Chad Ogea's pitching. That Tribe win forced a game 7.

I know these are little things, but doesn't anybody have editors or fact-checkers anymore? And if I can quickly spot out these Cleveland-related errors, what other errors are out there for teams that I don't know much about?

Has anyone else noticed this in reporting? Jees, I never want to hear about how the "blogosphere" can't be trusted again, with this crap coming from the established media...

NFL Week 4: "Ten Chances"

I loved this game. The contestant got ten chances to unscramble three prices for prizes - the last, of course, being a car. The prizes got more expensive as the game went on - the first prize was usually a two digit price, the second a three digit price, and so on.

At this point in the season - on chance #4 - an NFL team had better do a couple things to establish themself in order to position them to win a car. In TPiR terms, the contestant had better won the first prize and should be about to win the second prize in order to have a maximum number of guesses for the car.

Teams like the Bengals, Bears, have guessed the first two prizes easily and are well on their way of descrambling the digits " 8 6 1 4 0 " for the 1983 Trans Am.

Other teams are still stuck on the first prize, and haven't been able to use two digits out of "4 8 5" to win the Haggar Slacks. The Browns and Raiders are stuck here on chance 4, and haven't guessed the correct price of $45 yet. Now - it still is possible for either of those teams to pull it together and win the car, but they better move off the slacks this week.

On to the picks:

Car 20, NO 13. Maybe I'm giving Car's defense too much credit here.

Atl 27, Arz 13. Expect to see Matt Leinart in the game in the 2nd half.

SD 20, Bal 10. Let's just say that last week's game did not increase my respect for the Ravens. McNair threw some bad passes.

Min 24, Buf 17. When the hell will Chester Taylor get in the endzone consistently? How about a 2 TD game here?

Ind 30, NYJ 20. Maybe the Jets are good enough to keep this within 10.

KC 20, SF 17. It wouldn't shock me to see the upset here.

Mia 19, Hou 16. See above - Houston could win this.

Dal 23, Ten 20. I have no rational reason why I think the Titans will keep this close. This is now week #4 on the Eric Zahn -Titans betting bandwagon.

StL 26, Det 16. Why does this seem too obvious? That's not good. And HELLO BULGER - last week for you and then you get benched on 2 of my fantasy teams.

Was 16, Jax 12. I'm starting to agree with BSG - I think Leftwich is holding this team back.

Cle 20, Oak 17. Maybe the Browns will listen to the studio audience and write down "$45" for chance #4. Rest assured that I will yell "45 DOLLARS" into the phone late Sunday afternoon to Derek - either in joy or sheer and utter frustration.

Cin 31, NE 21. I just can't see the Pats in this game. I know, I know, Belichick will have the Pats ready after that debacle last week...

Chi 13, Sea 10. this will be a fun game to watch.

Phi 27, GB 24. I would never bet against GB on a Monday night.

Best Bets: (last week: 10-6; overall 23-22-2)

Car/NO Under 42
Atl -7.5
SD -2.5
Min +2
Min/Buf Over 34 1/2
SF +7
Mia/Hou Under 40 1/2
Ten +9.5
Dal/Ten Over 37
StL -5.5
Was +2.5
Jax/Was Under 34
Cin -5.5
Cin/NE Over 45 1/2
Sea/Chi Under 35
GB +11

Placeholder - Picks Week 5

Since Derek has now said he's only picking college games, and I don't know when I'll get to my picks, here's a post for Derek to list his 16 picks for week 5.

The tally so far, as of week 4:

Eric: last week 10-6 (woo hoo!)
overall: 23-22-2

Derek: last week 8-8
overall 22-26-0.

We are playing for NCAA Pool entry fee money, which last year came close to $100.

My NFL picks featuring a Price Is Right game coming soon....

By the way - figure this one out. From the broadcast maps posted at gribble, it seems that Alaska (of all places) will have 2 different fox games this week. The northern part of Alaska will show the Min/Buf game; the southern part will show NO/Car. Mind-boggling.

Weird last 12 hours

Its been crazy this past week. I was in AZ for some meetings which was pretty nice. It was at the Fairmont Princess Hotel, which is an amazing resort complex in Scottsdale resting on the TPC Stadium course. Got lost on the 92 acre resort looking for my meeting room. Had to be picked up by a bellman in a golf cart to get me to my meeting. That's how lost I was. It took us 10 minutes to drive to the room. 10 minutes!!!! This place comes close to dwarfing the size of the Vegas hotels. No golf since we were in meetings for close to 15 hours a day. But we should all go back and stay there to play some golf during the winter.

And in my normal style I fucked up the proposal to Carol in AZ. On Tuesday, in between the meetings and dinner for that night, I drove back to Carol's place just to say hi. The ring was in my briefcase and for some reason I couldn't keep a straight face and she knew something was up and started going towards my briefcase, and in turn I flipped out and dove for the case so she wouldn't open it. Later she told me that she had no idea and wasn't even going for the case. So since I overreacted and I thought that she knew, I decided to do it right there. In her bedroom...In my Farmer's outfit...In between meetings. Ugh. I live on a beach that is picture perfect and I end up doing it in her bedroom in Scottsdale. Nice job!!!

Last night I ended up going to the Snow Patrol concert at the House of Blues in San Diego with Carol, her friend Lauren and her husband Brian. Pretty good overall. Great venue, not too crowded, $5 beers at an uncrowded bar, great opening band called Augustina, enough eye candy to keep me entertained during the bad songs, and the lead singer of Snow Patrol dropping F bombs in an Irish accent which I loved to no end. Weird crowd though. It was a mixture of 21 year old girls and middle aged guys. I'm used to the hippie crowds at the Black Crowes and Government Mule shows, which by the way have been the only concerts I've been too over the past 5 years. The last non BC or GM concert was a Blink 182-Nickelback-System of the Down-Puddle of Mud show I went to with Brad, Amy, and Allen at George Mason. WOW!!! That's a lot of crap and its inexcusable since I live right outside of LA that has tons of great venues and great bands. I'm sure my next concert will be going see that guy Chase from Laguna. Anyway, I had to watch the concert by myself since I wasn't going to go in the front with Laren and Carol, and for some reason I couldn't find Brian, who apparently was only a couple people down from me at the bar. I do love watching concerts alone though, since I like to get lost in the music and just watch people. For example I watched this older couple on the second floor overhang (who were wearing fanny packs) get their view blocked out by these two hookers and their dates. The women was pissed, but the man just sat back and seemed to be enjoying it. The hookers were providing enough entertainment for me as they tried to dance stripper style to the slow songs, clap out of rhythm to the music, and grab their dates packages on several occasions. Stay classy San Diego.

And then to top it off this morning, I had another toilet incident. Yup!!!! So I go into the bathroom to use our new toilet. Sit down, and somehow crack the toilet seat with me going right into the toilet. I really wish I was making this up. Seriously, this is fucking bullshit. So after I get cleaned up, I go right to my wonderful secretary who had them replaced and asked how much she paid for the toilets. $150 a piece. They were the cheapest ones in Home Depot. Make sense. Now I have to explain to her that we need a new toilet seat. No easy way to explain that. Way to start off the morning. Add this to my 15 minute cleaning session in the parking lot due to our homeless guy leaving around 50 pounds of clothing scattered in our back parking lot and I'm ready to give up on the day.

Random Thoughts...

More random thoughts...

1) Congratulations again to Derek for a) the engagement and b) the A's clinching. It's hard to tell which he is more excited about. If you use the blog as a gauge, we see that he posted three long paragraphs on the A's and a one-paragraph post (entitled "More Bad News..") on his engagement. Hey, I just report, you decide.

2) I hope people are noticing what's going on in the NL Central. Just 8 days ago, the Cards let the Reds by 7 and the Astros by 8 1/2. Now the lead is 1 1/2 over the Astros and 2 1/2 over the Reds. The Cards have lost 7 straight and - if they end up blowing this - would easily be the biggest choke in ML history. I'm sure that would put a smile on Derek's face, knowing who the Cards' manager is.

2a) Can you imagine the logistics if the worst case came to pass? The Cards have a make up game vs. the Giants that has not been rescheduled. If the Reds finish 5-1, Houston finishes 4-2, and the Cards finish 2-4, the Cards would be 1/2 game up on Cincy and Houston. The makeup game would be played on Monday (StL vs SF); if the Cards lose, then there is a three way tie; two of the three teams would play on Tuesday and the winner would play the third team on Wednesday... therefore backing up the NL playoffs until Thursday. Wow.

3) Did you hear the news - as Dave Barry would say, I am not making this up - that McDonalds is test marketing serving breakfast all day???? If that goes forward nationwide, I think this blog will sponsor a "Most Sausage McMuffins eaten in one day" contest. I could easily down 8 in one day. Easily. Hell, I've done three in one sitting at Vegas for breakfast!

4) So I log into Drudge yesterday and find the lead story being "Republicans to start launching massive negative ad campaign." This morning I turn on the local news - and I swear, from 6:30 to 7:00, I saw three such ads. We in Cincinnati are going to be inundated with ads from now until November - a competitive Senate race in Ohio, an open governor's seat in OH, and three separate competitive House races, one each in OH, IN and KY. We are ground zero for the political season - with the possible exception of Washington, DC, which will get zapped constantly for ads for the MD Senate and Gov, and the VA Sen races.

4a) My Senate sneak preview is coming. I promise.

5) Sirius took away one of my favorite stations and replaced it with an all-"The Who" channel. I'm pissed, but I feel like if I complain, I'll probably be the only one and they will laugh at me.

6) Thanks to all who responded to the informal Browns' poll - I respect your thoughts. However, this means that the Browns are really just one 52-yard missed FG from being equal to the Steelers.
You can say that reflects more negatively on the Steelers than it reflects well on the Browns - but you have to be consistent in your logic.

Oakland clinches the AL West

Wow, finally!!! I was getting nervous there after Street blew it two nights ago. What an amazing season. Despite all the injuries, we were able to still put on a strong second half on the shoulders of two guys. Bradley and Thomas. Chavez and Swisher made sure that we didn't start the season off going 10-30, with Bradley and Thomas just stepping up so huge during late July-September. Its nice to be back on top. I will be doing more of an analysis this weekend.

So with that being said, I will be attending game 2 of the A's playoffs in Oakland this weekend. Staying in the wonderful San Remo Hotel in Frisco and making the quick jump over to Oakland for the game. Carol arranged all of this and is a wonderful B-Day gift. She is now buying all of her A's gear. I will be wearing my new Bradley shirt.

Just a quick side note on Bradley...the media loves to trash him. Over the weekend he was tossed from a game and the ESPN.com story was that Bradley lost control, threw his bat, and got tossed. While this is all true, it didn't work in this order. He was called out on a 3rd strike, was mouthing off as much as everyone else does, and was walking back to the dugout, got thrown out, threw his bat, and then came back to argue. I've been watching Bradley for the past 3 years and he really does have a terrible wrap from the media. He is such a passionate player and cares soooo much for his team, that when he doesn't perform, he freaks out. Watching him in the dugout during the games he is the main guy at the top of the steps high fiving everyone and he does a retarded dance with Swisher after every homerun. The guy has become one of my favorites.

Let's go A's

More bad news.....

Well to build on the Browns loss and the A's not being able to clinch the division, I just wanted to let everyone know that I got engaged tonight. Yup, I'm off the market. Officially...Ring and all. December 30th is the date. Outerbanks is the location.

Your input needed

I'm taking input on how I am supposed to feel today after the crushing 15-14 loss yesterday to the Ravens. I have a feeling some of you in MD saw the game (and I provided about 1 1/2 quarters of play-by-play for Derek on the phone), so some readers may have their own, separate impressions....

I want to feel good about the progress of this team....

I want to get excited about the young core we have (Frye, Winslow, Edwards, Pool, Bodden, Jones, D'Quell, Wimbley....), the best set of young players since the return.

I love the fact that we have few penalties called on us.....

I want to hold my head up knowing we scared the crap out of the 3-0 Ravens....and we lost to teams that are (now) 8-0.

I want to feel like this team needs games like this to "learn how to win"....

but we are 0-3.

and we should have had last year to "learn" how to win.

and am I supposed to feel good about moral victories? What are we, Indiana football?

I've been waiting for 12 years for good football... do I have to wait another?

I am convinced we are better than the rest of the 0-2/0-3 teams in the league (Lions, Raiders, Texans, Bucs, Titans) and better than some 1-2 teams (Packers, Bills, 49ers).....but, again, we are 0-3.

I like our coach sometimes - and I'm not upset at all about the play call in the end zone.... but then I look back at the Saints game where we were completely outcoached and I shake my head.

I guess I'm optimistically frustrated. Does this make sense?

But we play the Raiders next.......I'm so scared of that game. If we lose, we are looking at 0-5 at the bye week....

(ok, mindless ranting over...)

Week 3 NFL Picks - "Now and Then"

In keeping with the "Price Is Right" theme for my NFL picks, week 3's featured game is "Now.... And Then". (Or is it "Now... or then"? Only Bob knows).

When picking games for this week, you have to consider the NOW - who a team is playing and where they are playing NOW - but you also have to start to consider who they have played so far - the THEN part.

Take, for example, the Baltimore Ravens. Everyone says their defense is back - back to a 2000 level. Well, let's take a look at the "THEN". They have played Oakland at home... arguable the worst team in the NFL since the 2000 Cleveland Browns with Spergon Wynn at the helm - and they have played Tampa, a team who has scored 3 points so far.

The sum of the Ravens' oppoenent's power rankings is above 60, easily. Now - take that into account before we say they are #1 in the league (I'm looking at you, Mr. King).

With that background, here are the picks:

Min 17, Chi 13. The Bears' opponents are horrid. Methinks we are overestimating the Bears a bit.

Mia 20, Ten 13. Who's better, the NYJ/SD pair or the Pit/Buf pair? A tossup, right? Then why is Miami favored by 11? (God help me- I'm taking the Titans again....)

Car 17, TB 14. I've thought about this game for 3 hours today - still have no clue.

Det 28, GB 17. This has shootout written all over it.

Buf 23, NYJ 20. The Bills have played the Pats tough and the Dolphins. The Jets also played the Pats tough and the Titans (a win). These two, coupled with the Mia-Ten game, has the feel of a World Cup group K where the winner of the group advances to play Italy and get smoked 6-1 in the first round. Have I digressed enough?

Hou 17, Was 16. Hou's opponents have been the underrated Eagles and the Colts. Washington played Dal and Min. Who's better? I think Houston. And this is in Houston.

Jax 23, Ind 20. Indy can not stop the run... and yet I'm too chicken to start Fred Taylor.

Cin 24, Pit 17. I am impressed with Cincy so far. I know, this is in Pittsburgh- but Cincy's running game will be too much, and Willie Parker will have another off day.

Bal 16, Cle 13. A 4 pm game - why? Bal's offense has not impressed yet.

Sea 20, NYG 17. Would love to see another Shockey moment - where he points triumphantly at the camera as the potential winning kick goes wide... then he realizes his mistake.

Az 20, Stl 16. StL has changed their offense - it's now a more ball-controlled offense. It's not a Mike Martz special anymore.

SF 26, Phi 23. I think SF is better than people think. Their opponents have been Az and Stl - the latter being a solid defensive team. Phi has beaten Houston and lost to NYG. They have a suspect secondary - and that's SF's strength.

NE 23, Den 13. Den has scored a total of 19 points vs. two average- to solid defenses. Aren't the Pats as good on D as the Chiefs?

NO 20, Atl 17. If any game called for the Monday night rule - where you always take the home underdog - it's here.

16 best bets. Last week: 8-7-1; overall : 13-16-2.
Min +4
Ten +11
Det -6.5
Det/GB Over 39
NYJ +6
NYJ/Buf Over 34 1/2
Hou +4
Jax +6.5
Cin +2
Sea/NYG Under 43
Az/Stl under 44 1/2
SF +6
SF/Phi Over 42 1/2
NE -6.5
NO +4
NO/Atl under 43 1/2

Ryder Cup and Spoilers

For no good reason, I've been excited about the Ryder Cup. I'm your typical "casual" golf fan, in other words I'll watch if Tiger and/or Phil are involved (or if Daly is bent over yakking on the 16th green).

But I've been looking forward to this weekend Ryder Cup matches. I'm getting ready for my morning, reading the Boston Globe and watching the Ryder Cup (in HD - nice!!). Then, in a sudden brain-cramp I go to ESPN.com and see on the front page the outcomes of the matches they are showing on TV!!!! Bastards. I knew the coverage was tape delayed, but I didn't care. I Tivo so much stuff now, I'd probably watch the New Years ball drop at 10:30AM the following morning. I think there needs to be a web standard for posting results of big events. Would it be too hard to create a collapsable item (i.e. click here for results??). They are so happy to provide "teaser" headlines anyway - why not help everyone out. We can get standards for everything else online, why can't we get this done?

Quick "Daily Geek" comment. A few months ago I bought a Convertable Notebook. The screen rotates around and allows the computer to be used as a tablet, you can write and take notes on screen. It has totally changed the way I work, I can scan in documents and mark them up. Take notes during meetings and conference calls (no more binder notebook), I can also record audio and review my entire meeting if I choose. I have become infinitely more organized now, as I am no longer shuffling through endless stacks of paper notes. It is really amazing. If anyone is in the market for a new laptop I would check out the convertable models and give the Tablet PC a try. It costs an extra $300 bucks for the "feature" (when compred to similar speced notebooks) but well worth it in my opinion.

New guy and picks

Here are my picks for college. They will go towards my 16...

1. rice over 48
2. Ohio St. -17
3. USC -22
4. Maryland -18
5. CAL -8
6. Washington ST. -10
7. ND Over 59
8. Louisville -13.5

Update: I was completely hammered when I wrote this last night. Sorry.

Quick Notes

Two quick thoughts before I go into a meeting:

-If you had to pick one team to win this week in the NFL, who would it be. I'm looking at Miami or the Bills. Now this is without the spread. My friend is in a suicide pool and wanted to go with the Bills and I told him to go with Miami. Thoughts?

-Was in American Eagle last night with Carol, a store I have never been in before, and I was just wasting time looking at their jeans. Could not for the life of me find a size 38. I remember having the same issue in a GAP store several years ago in Thousand Oaks. Are kids out here that skinny now that stores have stopped stocking size 38 and above? I'm going back to Sears.

Mazda RX 7

When did this car become a classic? I remember my ex girlfriend's friend had one and he thought that he was the shit. I would just sit there scratch my head and just smile so not to cause any waves. Yesterday I received a complaint call from one of our insureds who got in an accident that totaled out his 1992 Mazda RX 7. We had given him a market value of $4,000. He said that this was too low. So I asked him how much is he asking for and what proof does he have to support it. Well he stated that it was worth $40,000. $40,000 for a 92 Mazda??? Why??? He went on to tell me that these are classic cars and that he restored the car and it cost him close to $40,000. I was so stunned by his stupidity that I responded with "Sir, I can rebuild a 90 Toyota Camry for $120,000 if I bought all the parts piece by piece, but this doesn't mean that it is worth $120,000. Its still a 90 Camry. " I also went on to explain the true definition of a classic car and how he had to get it appraised and titled differently. He actually understood and shortly hung up feeling like an idiot.

Week 2 NFL Picks - "That's too much!"

Here we go - picks for week 2. A couple of the games have shocked me with their line - I can't believe it is that large. It's like the Price Is Right game - "That's Too Much!" When I saw the TB line, and the Dallas line, I immediately yelled "THAT'S TOO MUCH!!!!" like a good TPiR contestant.



I will start with the 1:00 games that I have no clue about:

Chi 17, Det 10. Does Detroit really have a good defense, after stopping Seattle for 9 last week?

Atl 20, TB 19. No clue. I'm still not convinced in Atlanta - yet.

Min 17, Car 16. Another game where I'm not sure about either team. Is Carolina going to continue to struggle without Smith? Is Minnesota decent, or is Washington that bad?

Mia 20, Buf 13. The 11 day rest will certainly help the Dolphins.

Cle 24, Cin 20. The Browns will bounce back - will it be enough for them to win?

Indy 20, Houston 9. There will be a lot of long Indy drives eating up a lot of clock.

NO 20, GB 13. Can you imagine the media next week if the Saints are 2-0 going into a Monday night game - at home -the home opener at teh Superdome?

Bal 24, Oak 3. Can they make this line high enough?

Phi 27, NYG 24. What a great game this is going to be.

StL 30, San Fran 23. I'm going with the "SF has no defense" thesis until rpoven wrong.

Sea 24, Az 17. Defenses will rule this game.

SD 20, Ten 13. A lot of running, a lot of eating the clock.

NE 27, NYJ 16. NY will stay in this for a while - but the arm of Brady will tear up the Jet's D late. We saw it last week vs. the Titans.

Den 24, KC 10. Do we really know what to expect from the Chiefs now?

Dal 23, Was 20. A close game - aren't they all?

Pit 17, Jax 13. Keep picking them until they lose.

Now, for the best bets: 16 of them:

(record : 5-9-1. Derek is 6-10).
Ind/Hou under 47 1/2
NO -2
Bal -12 1/2
Bal/OOak Under 34
NYG/Phi over 41 1/2
TB +5.5
StL -3
Stl/SF Over 43 1/2
Az/Sea Under 47
Ten +11.5
NE -6
NE/NYJ Over 37
Den -10 1/2
Was +6 1/2
Was/Dal Over 36 1/2
Pit/Jax Under 37 1/2

If you can understand the logic behind this...

then apply for a job at NASA.

This is the coverage map for the FOX NFL game this Sunday. Each TV market will be shown 1 (and only 1) game. Here is the map that defines what region gets what game.

Maps for every week can be found here.

This is The End, My Only Friend...The End

That's right, cue up The Doors. As some of you know I've been consumed over the past few months with the dissolving of my company. It’s a process that is still getting finalized, but the decision has been made – I’m out. Basically we went bankrupt in July. Well, we haven’t formally filed for bankruptcy, but when you move out of your office, can’t pay you bills or anyone that works for the company, that is going bankrupt in my book. I’m currently transitioning away from that disaster and doing contract development work fulltime. It’s a bit crazy right now, but I’m much happier now. It was like a bad relationship with a girlfriend, you know you have to end it, you know you’ll be better off, but you’re not sure the right time or how to do it. And in the end looking back you wonder why you didn’t make the move sooner since you are clearly much better off without her. Oh well.

Yesterday, I got my first paycheck since the 4^th of July! I ran to the bank like my pants were on fire. Its nice to get paid.

I am currently driving to the beach, with my son who hasn’t stopped talking since 6:30AM – so I am going to quickly get to some random things:

1. Chernobyl (AKA 2006 Red Sox) – Ugh. I was actually in Boston for the 2006 Boston Massacre. It was like the entire city was attending a funeral, and I guess in some ways they were. You know things are bad when your best pitcher’s shoulder pops out of socket (Papelbon) and that isn’t the worst news of the day because your second best pitcher was diagnosed with cancer. Thank god they won the WS otherwise we would have been subjected to 1 billion Curse/Meltdown articles. I think its safe to throw away my ticket from Leroy’s for them to win the WS.
2. I hardly ever drink alcohol anymore, but when I do I still enjoy it.
3. I am excited for football season, but I’m not EXCITED like I normally am for some reason. I’m not sure why, maybe its because we will be out of the house for each of the next two Sundays and thus am out of my normal viewing routine.
4. Speaking of football I wish the Pats just once didn’t have to win EVERY negotiation and not budge a millimeter. Maybe you give just a little to Adam V, and maybe you don’t initially lowball Branch on these negotiations (that they have known were coming since the start of 2005). They gave Branch a decent offer, but by that time it was too late. It should have never gotten to that. The major problem with what they did to Branch was they wanted to extend his contract not give him a new one. So there “real” offer was a 4 year deal (3 + 1 from original deal), and split up his bonus of $8 mil over two years. A far cry in guarantees compared to what Seattle gave him.
5. High Stakes Poker on GSN is a great show. I know poker shows are seemingly on every channel (I think CSPAN2 has the Senate Poker Open on next week), but this one is really great. The last show Daniel Negraneau flops a full house, only to lose to Gus Hansen’s quads, the pot: $450,000. Nice.

Stay classy Flotsam and Jetsam!

2006 Campaign Preview Upcoming!

Over the next several weeks, I'll start to preview the 2006 Election - will the Democrats rally to take over the House, Senate, or both? How many governorships will the Republicans lose?

Before we go into each of the races, here's an excellent post by Michael Barone summarizing the Democratic Sentate Primary in Maryland. A combination of political horse-race handicapping, statistics, and local geography. What's not to love?

2006: Cardin beats Mfume 44-40.

I had no idea that the make-up of the population of Maryland has changed so much, as Barone has said.

two quick things as I try to rebuild my databases

1. What happened to James Brown. Why did he move to CBS? The new guy sucks ass. Not like I enjoyed Fox's pregame before, but it was at least watchable for a few minutes. Now it doesn't flow with good ole JB manning the ship. And I can't stand JB, since his local morning show out here is absolute crap. Did he ask for too much money?

2. Why do I like Dirty Diana (Ben's girlfriend) now? I was just wondering this when I was talking up Ben's new married girlfriend today. She What has changed since my last post? Well the only thing that I could think of is that on Monday when I came home late and tired and find that she made me a plate of food which included some type of potato and cheddar soup and an amazing pumpkin cheesecake. Great shit, and none of this ethic crap I got from his prior girlfriends who would either make me some type of smoked white fish drenched in vinegar or mexican food that was so spicey I would end up shitting my pants for the rest of the night. Note-Yes she is married, somewhat attractive, extremely rich, and lives in an ultra exclusive neighborhood called Coza. Now Ben is a funny guy, but what the fuck? I'm sure within the next couple of months I will have an amazing post about how I had to pull a Blackhawk Down and extract a naked Ben from the bushes over in Coza while the husband is chasing him with a gun. I'm so giddy just thinking about it.

Wedding, Football, and Kentucky

Where do I begin? This past week was absolutely fantastic. This was the first vacation since my trip to Spain 2 years ago where I didn't do any work. Want to know why? Well my hard drive got fried somewhere between Eric's basement and his kitchen table. So much so that they had to hotswap my laptop on Thursday. And by Thursday I was in full wedding mode so I didn't do a thing until this morning. Ahhhhh. So nice. Here is the recap of items over the past week.

1. So my laptop crashed and I wasn't able to recover anything off the hard drive. Last time I backedup??? 7 months ago. And that hard drive is now corrupt and I can't get my lotus notes archive....Ugh. Lost all my pictures, databases, and reports. This will take me at least a week to rebuild everything. So today is now officially "Backup your fucking computer DAY".

2. When going back east, I will now only do week long trips. So relaxing and I'm not trying to cram family, work, high school friends, college friends, and other items into a long weekend. Made for a much less stressful week. So nice and relaxing and made me hate Baltimore a little less.

3. Had a great trip seeing Eric and the boys. Corrupting them might becoming my new hobby. Taught the oldest one to stop saying he has to go poop and now to say that he has to drop a deuce. You're welcome Eric.

4. Had a nice dinner with Wiz and Lee on Wednesday. Oh, and I almost forgot, I finally met RRD. What a dork. He fits the typical guy who graduated from Virginia.

5. At dinner, we came up with a great idea of having a golf tournament with guys that we know. Between Wiz, Eric, RRD, Don, Kermit, Maier, and several others, I'm sure we could put together some type of Ryder Cup Tournament. Almost like a Maryland vs everyone else Cup. How great would that be. Wiz and Lee vs. Eric and Derek. We could easily put together two teams of 12. Make Lee and myself captains and make the teams. Organize something for early spring back in Maryland. More than enough time to get a team together and plan for travel. And just think of the gambling options on this. Ahhhhh!!!

6. Speaking of gambling on a Ryder Cup tournament, Wiz just had this at his club. Great story. Two teams of golfers at the club and Wiz booked all the action. Asked him how it turned out and he said he got taken to the cleaners. Four figures. Ouch. Hope he learned a lesson on how to set odds. Heavy favorites need to be at least -600 and not -180.

7. Main purpose for my trip back was Jon and Suzie's wedding. Here are some highlights and lowlights of the festivities:
Highlights:
-Getting to see all the boys again on Friday and Saturday with all of them bringing their A material. Richie was in classic form and Currier continued with his onslaught of jokes and antics. Combine them with solid players in Dude, Keith, Neil, and Bruce made it a very enjoyable two nights.
- The video guy, who at first pissed me and the entire wedding party off by being intrusive and clueless, but redeemed himself by fixing our microphone issue for the wedding. He was upgraded from duochebag to cumguzzler despite continued problems figuring out who the groom was.
-OK, despite giving him loads of shit Suz's little brother Greg was fantastic. To cap off the week of festivities, I found him nearly passed out, lying on the floor in front of an elevator at 2:00am on Saturday. I hope he made it back to the room.
- To Jon, who wanted to dance with Suz during the last song, but was in the middle of doing shots with us, who put his shot down, walked away, and then ran back, slammed the shot after we were all heckling him, and chucked his shot glass on the grass. For a guy who doesn't drink, this was one of the most impressive displays of taking a shot out of anger that I've ever seen, which received a full round of applause from us (and mad respect).
-To Ariel, who was a dancing maniac. The best was when she was "backing that ass up" into me while my mom was looking. The look of disapproval was classic.
-To Richie, who walked in to the kitchen on Thursday night to see Suz, her sister, and her mom (divorced from Suz's dad) and was introduced to Suz's mom. He kept on saying that he has met her before, with Suz and her mom saying that they haven't. He then comes up with the time, location, and event where he thought he met her before, with Suz responding that is where he had met Suz's dad's girlfriend. Classic "ohhhh" response from us guys in the living room, with Richie just shrugging his shoulders, pouring himself a glass of wine and joining us on the couch. Classic.
-The band. I usually hate live bands at weddings since I feel like they are a waste of money. They normally play the same crappy dance songs that a DJ would play, but it is off tune. But this band, The Moonlighters, were the best!! I would actually go see them play in a bar. Blues and Jazz during the dinner and solid covers the rest of the night. And their appearance made them even better. All big black guys (with one women) that had little to no teeth. And when they introduced the wedding party, it was off the charts. When I get the video and sound for this, I will try to post. It was like a superbowl player introduction. I can not do justice for how they sounded.
-Overall great wedding. The perfect location, perfect people, perfect colors, and was perfectly organized. Perfect enough that my mom only made a few comments which was silenced by the overall praise of the entire event.
Lowlights:
- The wedding planner. All of us were calling her a fat pig, with Jon trying to quiet of down so nobody would hear us. She was terrible. Useless. I have at least 4 different stories that would warrant her being fired. But the icing on the cake was when the maid of honor didn't have the ring, with the wedding planner running up, without shoes, to give it to her. WHERE THE FUCK WERE HER SHOES??????? Seriously, did she eat them? And didn't she see that the maid of honor ran off the stage to find the ring? Where was she???? She is now in my top five women that I would have no problem hitting. I hope Jon reads this and post the name of the company that she works for so that nobody will use them in the future.
-Embassy Suites- Crap, crap, and even more crap. They were late with the bus, there was no rhyme or reason to where they put the rooms, and they almost threw out Jon because he was being too loud in the room. And the manager tried to yell at me to get back into the room, with me just laughing at him. I will be making an official complaint to Hilton on their operation.
-Women and weddings- They are all crazy when it comes to this. Even if they swear that they are not like other women, ALL women will go crazy during their wedding (or a friends wedding). Much like the below women.
-Bridal party- Why was it that it was the groomsmen helping out with all the wedding stuff two days before the wedding? Where were all the bridesmaids? Richie, Keith, Ray, Dude, and myself must of helped Suz, Amy, and her mom tie 300 bows around the programs and gifts. Where were the 7 bridesmaids?
- To the Maid of Honor- I like Amy a lot, but she was more stressed than the bride. And then she forgot the ring and trashed me during her speech. Nice.
-My mom- for bringing pictures of me when I was 9-21 to the wedding and showing them to everyone.
-Wedding Pictures- The groom saw the bride before the wedding so they could take pictures before. While I love the idea, to me this is like inviting the gooch to dinner and then trashing his mom. He might not strike immediately, but something might happen down the road. I'm just saying.....

8. The Browns- The game was showed in the LA area because of Reggie Bush. While Eric was not impressed with Bush, he did gain 150 yards in total offense (138 if you subtract his returns) in his first NFL game. What more can you say? So I watched the entire game so that I could talk to Eric about it. Winslow was impressive. Frye was better than average. But the offensive line was the worst I have ever seen. Frye had to scramble for his life on every single pass play and Droughns only rushed for 29 yards. Don't get me started on Droughns. I lost by 2 points in my one fantasy league because of him. If I would of started Barlow instead I would of won easily. Anyway it will be a long season for the Browns if they don't shore up that line, even if Frye can continue to scramble like he did. New Orleans is not a good team defensively. When the Browns do play someone solid on defense, Frye will get hurt. And nobody wants to see Dorsey at QB.

9. Bookie- It was so relaxing and nice not having to worry about any of this. Its nice to be out.

10. Ravens- I was seriously going to put money on them after Wiz told me that this was his lock of the week. How was the first week Wiz?

11. And to top it off, what would a post be without an office story. Before I left to go back East, I had the toilets replaced? Why, because I was tired of pissing on myself. I actually had handicap toilets installed. Well they were installed about 10 days ago and the handyman who did this, put the old toilets NEXT to the dumpster, not in the dumpster. On the Friday before I left, I told my management staff to make sure that the toilets are put in the dumpster or removed. Well, of course they didn't do this. So on Tuesday when everyone came back into the office from a long weekend, we had a collection of bums hanging out and sleeping next to the toilets. And what was in the toilets? Hmmmm...shit. So they had to call the police and the hazmat team to pick up the toilets. The garbage company would not take the toilets since they were soiled. So instead of meeting with my staff to go over results from last week, I had to have a meeting with my management staff about following my direction. Idiots!!! All of them are idiots.

Week 1 NFL Preview

First off, congratulations and good luck to one of our co-bloggers, Jon (Jorge Blogsada), who is getting married this weekend. That's the main reason why Derek has been silent for the last few days (and I've had the blog to myself).

Now for the picks. If you weren't with us last year, I predict every game's score. I then take the margin (and the total # of points) to determine the best bets for the week. If the difference between my margin and the official line is more than 3 points for a team, or 6 points for an over-under, that qualifies as a best bet.

The goal is to go through the season and pick the games at a 52.4% clip. That's the breakeven mark.

Here we go:

St Louis 24, Denver 20. Just a gut feeling. St Louis will be fired up, and wil be able to move (especially with Stephen Jackson) on the ground. Denver just does not seem like a dome team to me.

Tennessee 20, NY Jets 9. Tennessee has a OK defense - and that will be enough to stop the weak Jets' O.

New England 31, Buffalo 24. I don't know what, but I like what Buffalo has done and how they look. JP Losman has grown. And I don't think NE's defense is all that good anymore - when they are signing overrated, retired players (like Seau), that's not good news.

Tampa Bay 17, Baltimore 13. No idea. I don't think McNair wil llight it up in his first game back.

Cincinnati 31, Kansas City 27. I'm not sold on Cincy's D yet.

Seattle 23, Detroit 10. I am definitely NOT on the Lions bandwagon here, led by Peter King. Yeah, yeah, Rod Marinelli, military guy and all that - but it's Jon Kitna as QB.

Carolina 24, Atlanta 14. Atlanta, outdoors, vs. a good defense has never produced points.

Philly 23, Houston 20, OT. This will go down to the wire.

Cleveland X, New Orleans 13. I like the Browns' D, and I think we can hold the Saints to 13. Now, with Frye as our QB, can we score more than 13 at home?

Can we?

....

Well, OK. I don't feel good about this game, for whatever reason. Cle 16, NO 13.

Dallas 21, Jacksonville 13. I have to go against my heart on this one. Some one explain how the Jaguars are going to score.

Chicago 20, Green Bay 14. Favre will throw 3 INT, but will move the ball somewhat and get 2 scores. But the turnovers will lead to 13 Bear points.

Arizona 28, San Francisco. I know about the offense for each team, but what about the D I know nothing.

New York Giants 26, Indianapolis 23. The Sunday Night game is the new Monday Night game - home teams win.

Washington 17, Minnesota 10. See the question above regarding Jacksonville - how is Minnesota going to move the ball and score?

San Diego 30, Oakland 16. Any team that looked at Jeff George as a viable option at QB NOW is pathetic.

14 Best bets: (record: 1-0 so far)

StL +4
Ten -2.5
Ten/NYJ Under 35 1/2
NE/Buf over 41
Cin +2
Cin/KC Over 47 1/2
Sea -6
Sea/Det Under 45
Car -5
Phi/Hou over 37
Dal +1
NYG +3
SD -3
Was/Min under 35

With the first pick....

What is the most interminable week in sports? I used to think it was the week leading up to the 1st/2nd rounds of the NCAA basketball tourney. Sunday night, the pairings came out - teh first set of picks were made before midnight; Monday was spent listening to other analysts; and the picks were locked in stone by Monday 3:00 pm.

And then you waited.... and waited.... and waited....for Thursday to roll around.

Now, however, that week seems very short. This past week has seemed very LONG as we wait for the NFL season to kick off! The days between the last exhibition game and the opener have never seemed longer.

As always, I will strive to pick 16 bets for the week ahed - not all games will be picked and I will liberally use the over-unders - and I will attempt to be ahead for third straight year. Derek will also join me in that challenge.

So, here is the first pick of the NFL year:

Pit 20, Mia 10. I don't think peope understand Pit's offense. Ben is not a great quarterback -he is a great game manager. Ben does not make plays to let the Steelers win - that should have been obvious in the Superbowl. However, everyone is reacting to Ben's injury like this is an automatic win for the Fish here. I don't see it. Charlie can manage the game as well as Ben, and Mia's defense -while good - is not great and will not shut Pit down.

You all know I'd love a Pittsburgh loss as much as anybody, but I don't see it tonight - not at Heinz against an overrated Miami team. (Does anyone remember their last loss???? Does 22-0 ring a bell????)

Best bet:
Pit -1.

Do I have a gambling problem?

Two stories from this weekend that I will tell ... and then the readers can answer the question if I have a problem:

1) Went to Louisville this weekend with Derek to meet Carol and her family. After dinner, it was decided that the family will take an outing to Caesar's on the west side of Louisville... well, who am I to argue?

I was there once - back in 2002, stopping off during a car ride to Cape Girardeau. That's the only time I set foot in the place.

We went to the craps table - I threw out $200 - and the staff asked if I had a card. I said no, I didn't get one when I was here 4 years ago. They asked if I wanted one - I said sure, I'll add to my collection of Indiana cards.

5 minutes later, the pit boss comes over, taps me onthe shoulder, and asks: "Did you use to live in West Chester?" Shocked, I said "y-y-yes!". He said "That's the address we have in our system for you.... shoudl we change it?". I said OK.

I am now in Caesar's/Harrah's system?

2. We went to the track with the kids, Derek and Carol on Labor Day. The 8th race was a race simulcast from Thistledown in Cleveland. There was a clear favorite in the race - horse #3 - with odds of 3/5 or soemthing like that. A couple other horses looked good, so I put $2 on them to win, and then picked an exacta with the #3 horse to win and #8 to place.

The race is coming down to the wire - and the favorite (#3) leads by a good 5 lengths. A longshot - not mine - is in second. As the horses finish, the camera zooms in on the finish line and we see #3 cross first.

The next thing we see is a jockey laying on the ground. Three horses zoom by in a close finish for second. They replay the race - apparently, the long shot horse fell down/crahed about 30 yards from the finish, throwing the jockey off.

It is not clear at all who actually finished 2nd, until they show the results on the board - #8! A $38 exacta hits for me.

It then hits me that the longshot horse probably would have to be put down.

What is my reaction?

Thanks for the cash! Hope you rest in peace!

Wiz's Fake Boobs

Just wanted to relate a funny story from the other day. I know that I can't do the awkwardness and tension justice here, but here's my feeble attempt.

A friend of mine from LA got fake boobs recently, shortly after breaking up with her fiancee, who I work with. We'll call the girl Kelly and the guy Micah, just to keep real names out of this.

I get a call from Wiz while sitting in my office with Micah (my boss). They know each other from Vegas, so I put it on speakerphone. After exchanging pleasantries, here's the exchange:

Me: What's up? Hey, I have you on speakerphone with Micah. You remember Micah from Vegas.
Wiz: Yeah, how are you doing? Hey, don't you know a girl in LA who just got fake boobs?
Me: Nope, don't know what you're talking about.
Wiz: No, no. You told me about it.
Me: No I didn't. I don't know anyone who's had a boob job.

At this point, I can't hang up abruptly, Micah will know what is going on. But Micah doesn't know about Kelly's fake boobs, because they haven't talked since breaking their engagement off. Wiz doesn't know that they broke off their engagment, so he presses on.

Wiz: No, you told me about your friend from LA, Kelly, who just got fake boobs. You told me that we were going to see them in Vegas.
Me: You must be thinking of one of Derek's friends, I don't know what you are talking about.

Wiz (not getting the hint): No! You told me about your asian friend in LA who just got fake boobs. I remember it for sure.
Me: Nope, I've never told you about anything like that. Don't know what you're talking about.

After a little more back and forth, we finally hang up. Micah looks at me and says, "Kelly got fake boobs?" I desperatly try to avoid the question and change the subject. No luck.

Thanks a lot Wiz, you're a retard.

Two-sentence NFL Previews

After cramming for the past 5 days on the NFL and for my fantasy drafts (one down... one tonight... one next Tuesday)....the 2006 NFL season is now crystal clear for me. Here is what I see in store for each team:

AFC East:

4. NY Jets. What a mess. Pennington has a long way to go before I even remotely believe he is capable. 3-13

3. Buffalo. This team is making some strides, and JP Losman looks better. The defense in average, at best, which is their undoing. 6-10

2. Miami. The defense is old (Zach will have another season ending injury), and questions abound about Culpepper. Good thing they are in a weak division. 9-7.

1. New England. Process of elimination lands them here. Get ready to take the "over" on most of their games. 10-6.

AFC South:

4. Tennessee: A lot of the parts are in place, but they are 1-2 years away. Kerry Collins as mentor for VY - does anyone else see that as trouble? 4-12.

3. Houston: I am a big Kubiak fan. Not there yet, but this team will be markedly improved by the end of the year. 6-10.

2. Jacksonville. Can Leftwich carry them - and who will run the ball? Defense will win them 5-6 games this year. 10-6.

1. Indianapolis. Again, saved by a weak division; not as dominating as last year. It will be interesting to see how the offense adjusts without Edgerrin. 12-4.

AFC West: 4. Oakland: I don't want to jinx anything here, because if I call them out, they will turn around and beat the Browns. But there's not much positive here - Jeff George? 3-13.

3. San Diego. I'm not impressed with Riveers, and the division is tough. And who is still the coach? 8-8.

2. Kansas City: Someone, somewhere, compared Herm Edwards to Ray Nagin - always running around and seemingly in control, but nothing happens. Incredibly apt. 9-7.

1. Denver: Can Plummer keep it up - is he like a bottle of 1998 Shiraz from Australia? And I see that both Courtney Brown and Gerard Warren are injured.....shocking! 11-5.

AFC North:

4., 3., 2. Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh. Complete and utter ineptness for each all year. Three way tie at 0-12-4.

1. Cleveland. Need I say more? Charlie is in the hall of fame next year, waiving the 5-year eligibility rule. 16-0.

More seriously....
4. Baltimore. I'm sorry, I'm not a believer. Rational people can debate this, I think, and respect each other's opinions - but Billick hasn't done anything with the O in Baltimore; why do people think it will start now with the aging McNair? 7-9.

3. Cleveland. I'm already on record with this prediction. This defense looks good and will have people stunned by week 6. 8-8.

2. Pittsburgh. God, I've gone back and forth with this. But I don't think Parker can handle the load, and the loss of Randle El will impact them more than they thought. 10-6.

1. Cincinnati. I've changed my mind after monday's game. I know, I know.... 11-5.

Playoffs:
Denver (3) 23, Jacksonville (6) 10
Pittsburgh (5) 27, New England (4) 24, OT

Indianapolis (1) 27, Pittsburgh (5) 17
Cincinnati (2) 34, Denver (3) 17

Indianapolis 31, Cincinnati 23

Now for the NFC:

NFC East:

4. Washington: I just don't like the way they look right now. I think I'm more comfortable with Cleveland's QB situation than the Skins..... 7-9

3. Dallas. I can't trust Bledsoe, and the TO soap opera will last the whole year. Still, there is a lot to like here. 9-7

2. Philadelphia. McNabb is back, and they will use the two weapons they just got (Stallworth and Gabriel). However, have you seen the back end of their schedule? 10-6

1. NY Giants. The defense is there, and I think Eli will continue his progression. God, am I picking the media's darling --- no, that's Dallas. whew. 11-5.

NFC North: 4. Green Bay: This team is awful. They signed our backup LB (Ben taylor) who got run over multiple times by the Bus - and expect him to contribute. That's how bad their D is. 3-13.

3. Detroit. Nope, I don't see it. RRD, is this the year we officially put Peter King away into the insane asylum? 6-10.

2. Chicago. Invoking the Browns' rule again here... if the defense is so good, then a) how did the Browns (and Trent Dilfer) score 20 on them last year, and b) 29 against the Panthers in the playoffs. Who is their QB again - and is he more provne then Charlie Frye? 8-8.

1. Minnesota. For whatever reason, I like this team. The team jelled last year without Culpepper; Johnson is the perfect QB, and the defense is slowing improving. 10-6.

NFC South

4. New Orleans. I don't want to oplay these guys at the end of the season. Bright times are ahead, although they need a 2nd WR and some linebackers. 5-11.

3. Atlanta. Overrated with a camera-mugging coach. Sounds like the NFC's version of the Baltimore Ravens. 6-10.

2. Tampa Bay. Simms impressed me last year down the stretch. Although Galloway won't have a career year like last year, Clayton will make up the difference. 10-6.

1. Carolina. Jon Fox is a hell of a coach. They have the weapons on offense, and a great defense - the complete package. 12-4.

NFC West. 1. San Francisco. Yes, sign me up on the Gore bandwagon, but Alex Smith is Mormon for "Tim Couch". Are there any impact players on D? Does Ronnie Lott count? 4-12.

2. Arizona. I have to - this is the anti-Atlanta Braves. Pick them here until they show you otherwise. 6-10.

3. St Louis. bulger being healthy is worth 2 wins, right? But that D is not improved. 8-8.

4. Seattle. Like last year, this team will clinch the division by Veteran's Day. But I think the fire just won't be as big as last year. 11-5.

NFC Playoffs:
(3) NY Giants 20, (6) Tampa Bay 17
(5) Philadelphia 27, (4) Minnesota 23

(1) Carolina 31, (5) Philadelphia 16
(2) Seattle 27, (3) NY Giants 20

(1) Carolina 33, (2) Seattle 23

Super Bowl 41: Carolina 27, Indianapolis 23

Denver

6:00am flights. Wow, what was I thinking. Everything at this point annoys me. The biggest thing at the airport that set me off are people who crowd me. We need to post some rules on how to stand in a line. If I swing my bag around to put it on my shoulder and hits two people, they are too close and its there fault. And why is it always Asian guys that do this? This morning, while standing in the security line, I was being crowded by not one but two frail older asian guys. So what did I do? I purposely readjusted my bag and clocked both of them in the stomachs. I turned around and gave them my patented head shake. Surprisingly they backed off for about 2-3 minutes until one of them stepped on my flip flop....I wasn't walking at the time. Well, I readjusted my bag again, hit them again and I turned around again and did another head shake. This honestly went on for 10 minutes. Apparently they were a part of a large Chinese tour (or the 2006 graduating class of MIT) and nobody had a clue what was going on in their group. Watching them trying unpack and go through the screening gates was too much fun.

Now I need to go find some scissors so I can put on my patch.

Poll Results

Well I'm finally taking down the weather poll. 22 of you voted for the beach while 10 voted for the midwest. Fascinating. Check out the new poll that will be posted today in honor of everyone's fantasy football teams. Who will be the biggest bust this year in fantasy football.

Culpepper- Why does everyone forget about how bad he was last year? Why?
Vick- Since the Mets and Tigers are doing well this year, I think that Vick might finally put it all together and actually be decent. I think I'm the only one though.
Gore- I picked him up by mistake in the 3rd round in my one draft and I had two people tell me that was a great pick. RB on the 49ers???? Hmmm I don't think so.
Delhomme- I love him. I had him on my team each of the last two years. But I also drafted him in the 10+ round, not in the 3rd or 4th. He isn't that good.
AZ Wideouts- Boldin and Fitzgerald were both gone by the 3rd round, with Fitz being gone by the early 2nd round in most of my leagues. You do understand that they might have to receive passes from Matt Leinhart right???? How does the clap affect the play of a QB? We will soon find out.
Alexander- Why is everyone just now jumping on the bandwagon against him???

Pile On!!!

Nice material over at Kissing Suzy Kolber. Scroll down to the "Time to Feel Better About Yourself, Unless You're a Browns Fan" post and watch the clip. I'm not even looking for shit like this and it keeps on coming. What is up with people in Ohio and clips like this? This is about the 4th clip I've seen about random Ohio sports teams.

Anyway, enjoy http://kissmesuzy.blogspot.com/