NFL Week 17

Well, here we are at the end of another season! No time for a big write up as I got up late to make the predictions for this final week. Note - not a lot of thought went into these! I think this is the laziest set of picks I have made in a while...

Buf 24, Mia 13
GB 30, Det 20
Hou 24, Jax 16
NE 23, NYJ 17
NO 26, Car 13
NYG 24, Dal 10
TB 27, Atl 20
KC 27, Oak 17
Min 26, Chi 13
Pit 27, Cin 10
Phi 26, Was 16
LAC 28, Den 10
LAR 27, SF 17
Sea 29, Az 13
Ten 24, Ind 21

Best bets: Last week: 7-5-1; overall: 95-104-8
Buf -5
NYJ +14
NYJ/NE under 46.5
NO -7.5
NYG -7
TB +2.5
Oak +14
Oak/KC under 52.5
Min -6
Cin/Pit under 45
Phi -6
LAC -7
Ten +4.5

Supercontest picks: Last week: 1-4. First week that I have scored less than 2 points in 32 weeks....
Overall: 40-37-3

Buf -3.5
NYG -6.5
Min -4.5
Phi -6.5
Ten +3

NFL Week 16

An early Merry Christmas to everyone out there! Unfortunately, no time for a snappy theme for the picks. Here are the predictions and picks:

Ten 24, Was 10
LAC 24, Bal 17
Atl 27, Car 20
Dal 30, TB 17
Det 23, min 20
Ind 30, NYG 16
Mia 23, Jax 13
NE 23, Buf 10
GB 27, NYJ 24
Phi 27, Hou 20
LAR 23, Az 10
Chi 20, SF 13
NO 33, Pit 20
KC 34, Sea 31
Oak 27, Den 13

Best bets: 13 of them. Last week: 6-5-2; overall: 88-99-7
Atl -3
Dal -7
Det +6
Ind -9.5
Mia -3.5
Buf/NE under 44
Phi -2.5
LAR/AZ under 44
Chi -4.5
Chi/SF under 42
NO -6.5
KC/Sea over 55
Oak +3


Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-2; overall: 39-33-3
Dal -7.5
Det +5.5
Mia -4
NO -6
Oak +2.5

NFL Week 15: My 600 Lb. Life

Hello on a victory Saturday night! That's a nice win for the Browns over the Broncos, 17-16. We tried to give the game away at the end with the ill-fated timeout by Williams as Denver was jumping offsides on a 4th and 1 - but the defense saved us.

We got the 600 lb. monster off our back in beating Denver - we lost 11 straight to them going back to 1990; that year we were 3-13 (Bud Carson was fired) and somehow one of those wins was a Monday night game in Denver on Week 5. Jerry Kauric (anyone remember him?) kicked a game winning FG as time expired......here it is! Al Michaels and others!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56vQgMtoU7o&t=138s

Wow. The names mentioned in this clip.... and a very dapper Dan Reeves....

We're still alive for a wild card … and the division! Rooting hard for the Pats, Bucs, Cowboys, Giants, and Vikings tomorrow. It is possible for us to be eliminated tomorrow.

Anyway, when I talk about 600 lb. monsters, your mind should go to one of TLC's most successful series - My 600 Pound Life!

Show: My 600 Lb. Life

Network: TLC

When: Thursday nights, plus random mornings

Stars: Dr. Younan Nowzaradan (Dr. Now)

Somehow, I got addicted to this show in the spring. The show is a 1 hour documentary of 12 months in the life of a grossly obese person and their journey to lose the weight. The starting weight of each patient is over 600 lbs. They all go and see the same doctor - Dr. Nowzaradan, a specialist in weight loss in Houston, TX.

There have been 6 seasons of the show- it first aired in February, 2012 as a mini series. The show was so popular that they decided to make it a full fledged series. The format of the show is pretty simple; we get introduced to the patient in question in "month 1" - we see how they live, some insight on diet and how they can and can't do routine activities (like bathe, cook, get to work). It can get graphic as we see them taking a shower with help, rub lotion all over their folds, etc.  In many cases, they have no idea how much they weigh.

At some point, they get an appointment with Dr. Now and head to the Houston office. This usually involves a long road trip of multiple hours, or in one case an ambulance ride from Dallas. Once they get to the office for their appointment, they get weighed - and the weigh in is always over 600 pounds. 600!

Dr. Now meets with them and puts them on a 1200 calorie/day diet full of protein and vegetables. He expects a 30 pound loss in the first month with the diet, and sternly talks to the patient. The patients all want stomach surgery to limit the appetite, but Dr. Now won't approve unless they make some progress with their weight.

The show can go in many directions from here. In some cases, the patient makes drastic changes in diet and exercise and achieves the weight loss; the surgery is seen and all is well. However,  in most cases, the patient can't get the 30 pound loss right away. They "try" to eat healthier but the environment gets in their way. This is when Dr. Now shows his asshole side - he will then start yelling at the patient hat they will die if they don't change. Stop enabling this person, he may say. No more fast food! he yells sometime.

In most cases, the weight loss is achieved eventually and surgery is approved; I've seen so many gastric surgeries on this show than I care to remember. The show ends at month 12, with mixed results - some are successful with a total weight loss of 200 pounds or more; others are flatlined.

There have been 70 episodes of the show, and only 4 patients have died. That's pretty amazing. And two of those were due to causes unrelated to weight!

I love Dr. Now. He starts with a very friendly demeanor (with his trademark "Hello!") but it's clear he has little patience for people that don't follow his directions. His blunt style is what these people (and their families) need to hear in order to save their lives.

I think we can equate Dr. Now with Gregg Williams as Williams tries to resurrect this franchise. Let's keep the momentum going - and the Steelers losses coming, too!

On to the games:

Atl 23, Arz 17. Boy oh boy, Atlanta is the walking dead here. They have given up - and a team that has given up should not be laying double digits.

Bal 27, TB 13. Can't see the Ravens losing focus here. An inconsistent Winston against this pass D? I expect the Ravens D to score 7-10 points by themselves.

Buf 20, Det 13. Still love the Bills (and their D) at home, regardless of last week's fluke vs. the Jets.

Chi 24, GB 17. Trubisky at home will move the ball enough to get the win here.

Oak 26, Cin 23. I think Oakland's pass offense - centered around Cook - will be able to move the ball easily against the Bengals. Over under on attendance here: 17,500.

Ind 30, Dal 20. Horrid spot for Dallas after 3 home games. The Colts are desperate and have the run D to contain Elliott and the Cowboys.

Jax 20, Was 10. Do I need to comment any more on this game? Kessler giving more than 7 - and it makes sense?

Min 27, Mia 20. I think the Vikings D is overrated and Miami will score enough to make it close. But the Miami D will let up plenty of yards.

Ten 24, NYG 20. The Giants have played well of late, but against who? Bucs, 49ers, Redskins? The Titans are a well coached team and will out-think Shurmur.

Sea 30, SF 20. The Seahawk train will keep rolling. I just can't see how the Niners keep pace here against the balanced Seattle attack.

NE 30, Pit 27. The Pats have the Steelers number. Both teams are desperate - have to go with the better coach here.

LAR 31, Phi 17. Is Foles that much of a downgrade from Wentz? Probably not. However, the Rams will come out and run right over the Eagles and establish dominance.

Car 27, NO 24. It's a confluence of factors - home Monday night underdog, plus this is the Saints' 3rd road game in a row. I know Cam has sucked, but can't go against those factors.

Best bets: 13 of them. Last week: 6-7; overall: 82-94-5
Az +10
Bal -8
TB/Bal under 46.5
Buf -2.5
Buf/Det under 40
Oak +3
Oak/Cin over 45.5
Ind -3
Ten -1
Sea -3.5
Sea/SF over 44
Phi/LAR under 52
Car +6.5

Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-2; overall: 36-31-3
Bal -7.5
Buf -2.5
Ten +2.5
Sea -4.5
Car +6.5

NFL Week 14: Hoarders

Back to the themed picks this week ! Today, we look at one of the standard bedrocks for A&E that opened America's eyes to a new disease - hoarding!

Show: Hoarders

Network: A&E

Time: Weekend mornings

Stars: No regular stars during the series

Ah yes, Hoarders! A look at the inside lives of people that can't get rid of anything and just collect, collect, collect for multiple decades. It's not really a humorous show - it's mostly educational to show how deep in denial (or mentally sick) some of the hoarders really are.

The hour long show focuses on two separate people whose extreme hoarding is at a point to cause massive issues in their life. Usually, it's at a point where the person will lose their kids or will be evicted unless the house is cleaned up. Family members call for help and the A&E comes out to start taping!

The first 20, 30 minutes of the show gives an overview of the current situation - pictures of the living room, bedroom, kitchen - and some background on why this may have happened. The house usually is piled from floor to ceiling with stuff - clothes, collectibles, VCR tapes, etc. There's no room to sit down anywhere in the house, or to walk anywhere - paths over stuff are created to move around. There are no open counter spaces in the kitchens; it's been years since anyone actually have cooked in the kitchen. Sleeping arrangements are sometimes a sheet on a couch or a mattress in a corner of a common room. The saddest cases are when kids are involved and we see their rooms.

A therapist is introduced to talk to the hoarder, to understand the background behind it, and to try to convince the hoarder to move forward with cleaning. The therapist then leads the cleaning process - a professional team comes to help clean out the house (think of 1 800 GOT JUNK) and the team - including family members - try to throw stuff out.

That's when the fun and conflicts begin. The second half of the show usually is about the fights the hoarder has with the family members about what to throw out - beanie babies, clothes, canned goods, cassettes, lamps, etc. It's fascinating to see what people can really get attached to. However, I can understand a bit of it - in our office closet at home, I have my NFL betting notebooks and Vegas notebooks from 2006-on. If anyone asked me to throw those out, I'd be pissed and throw a tantrum.

The endings are not always happy; a lot of episodes end with the process about 75% done since they couldn't make enough process in time for an inspection. We really don't get the follow up story 6 months later to see if the changes that were made lasts, or if the hoarder when right back to fill up the now-cleaned house. I think the show intended to focus more on the psychiatric side of hoarding instead of the "before and after" picture of the clean up.

The show started on A&E in 2009; some of you may be asking "well, who would actually watch this show?" According to Wikipedia, Hoarders was the most-watched premier of any show on A&E, watched by 2.5 million people. It went 9 seasons and ended in 2017.

The one complaint I have about the show is that it seems like perfect fare for late-night TV. It's not a show for the mornings for people with weak stomachs; I don't like seeing maggots in warm fridges while eating my scrambled eggs at 9 am. Put this on at 10 pm!

Anyway - to segue to the Browns, we need to start Hoarding wins immediately. The last 4 games are winnable - Carolina, at Denver, Cincy, and at Baltimore. Is a wild card possible at 8-7-1? No, probably not, but it's great to talk about this again in December.

And I need to start hoarding wins for my picks, especially the Supercontest picks. I think I need to go about 16-4 for the last 4 weeks to have an outside chance at the money. It's not over, but I need a 5-0 or 4-1 week really quick.

To the games:

Buf 24, NYJ 13.  I will continue to sing the praises of Buffalo at home, and Josh Allen is not quitting. Neither are the Bills coaches. The Jets? They had their last hurrah last week.

GB 27, Atl 20. Betting on a bounce back for the Pack after McCarthy was let go. How much conflict was there between McCarthy and Rodgers? We'll find out at 1 pm today.

Hou 30, Ind 20. I don't see the Colts as the team to stop the Texans' juggernaut. They are playing well, especially at home.

KC 27, Bal 23. The Chiefs have the worst run D in the league - and Baltimore has Lamar. Is that enough? Fascinating to see the Ravens' O game plan here.

NE 26, Mia 17. No real clue here. I know the Pats don't play well in Miami, but they should be able to move the ball ok, right?

NO 30, TB 27.  A game the Saints usually have trouble with; the back door will be wide open here for the Bucs.

NYG 24, Was 17. Not sure how the Skins recover from Monday night. Sanchez is so ineffective, and the weapons just aren't there on offense due to injuries.

LAC 27, Cin 20. Anyone seen the Chargers schedule? Emotional game in Pitt last Sunday; Thu night coming up they face the Chiefs. A perfect spot for a let down here.

Den 24, SF 17. Maybe Kyle isn't as good as I give him credit for. The team is playing worse and worse each week.

Dal 23, Phi 17.  I just don't see how the Eagles win this. They are not good - and only won on Monday because of McCoy's injury. Dallas continues their roll.

Az 26, Det 20. The Cardinals are another team that don't seem to have given up yet; Rosen still is learning and trying to show his talent. Detroit lost 3 home games in a row and now go on the road.

Pit 30, Oak 24. I've given up trying to figure out the Steelers this year. And Oakland should be able to move the ball vs. the mediocre pass D for the Steelers.

LAR 27, Chi 24. Lot of sharps are picking the Bears here. I don't see it; don't like Trubisky against a good D like the Rams.

Sea 27, Min 17. Riding the Seahawk train, especially at home. Can't back Kirk Cousins on the road, in Seattle, Monday night, in a game Seattle has to win.

Best bets:  13 of them. Last week: 7-5; overall: 76-87-5.
Buf -4
GB -4
Hou -4
NE/Mia under 48.5
TB +10
NYG -3
Cin +15
Den -3.5
Az +3
Det/Az over 40.5
Dal -3
Oak +10
Sea -3

Supercontest picks: last week: 3-2; overall: 33-29-3
Buf -3
GB -5.5
Cin +14
Az +2.5
Sea -3.5

NFL Week 13 Picks

Sorry - no time for a themed write up this week. My predictions for the games for week 13:

Bal 23, Atl 20
Den 24, Cin 13
LAR 34, Det 26
GB 31, Az 17
Ind 24, Jax 17
Mia 27, Buf 17
Chi 24, NYG 20
KC 31, Oak 17
Ten 23, NYJ 20
NE 31, Min 20
Sea 30, SF 16
Pit 31, LAC 24
Was 23, Phi 20

Best bets; Last week: 3-8; overall: 69-82-5
Bal +2.5
Den -4.5
Den/Cin under 44.5
LAR/Det over 53.5
GB/Az over 41
Mia -3.5
Car/TB over 52.5
NYJ +10
NE -5
Sea -10
Pit -3
Was +6

Supercontest picks: last week: 2-3; overall: 30-27-3
Den -4.5
Mia -4.5
NYJ +7.5
NE -5
Was +6