NFL Week 16: Imperial Palace

Merry Christmas to all out there! It's Christmas Eve morning here, where everyone is late to wake up in the house. This is probably a bad idea since Santa needs everyone to go to bed early tonight so he can prepare.....or Santa can get up at 3 in the morning to wrap presents tomorrow....while the NFL is on! Hey, what an idea!

This is another weird week, getting me out of my routine. It's Saturday, we are at home, with no soccer games, and there will be NFL games tomorrow morning (instead of Monday morning). It's a weird feeling to adjust the routine after 15 weeks. We are actually going into work on Monday morning - this means I can actually be productive at work on a Monday instead of being hal asleep on 4 hours of sleep?

When I talk about weird feelings in casinos, there's one casino that stands out as one that I am very uncomfortable at. Kermit could guess this answer right away without looking at the title - it's the Imperial Palace. Wow, I do not belong there. It starts with the extra long craps tables - I think they are designed to fit 10 on each side. It's very hard to throw the dice all the way down and hit the wall on this extra large table. It's like asking Greg Maddux to now throw a strike from the mound that is 75 feet away, not 60' 6". Usually, I am close to drunk when I gamble there, and there is heavy smoke fog in the casino - so when I roll, I can't see the dice. It's like gambling on the 1988 Fog Bowl playoff game. I'm relying on Verne Lundquist, the stick man, to tell me what the result of the roll is.

And then we get to the blackjack pit. It's not gambling as usual there. Somehow we end up there on a Fri or Sat night - which is when the performers come out and sing/dance in the middle of the pit. They usually are cover bands for famous artists; Madonna, Elvis, etc. The one still seared in my head is the Freddie Mercury look alike singing "Bicycle" while a stripper does a pole dance around an actual bicycle.

And I'm supposed to decide whether to split 3's vs a 4 with this going on?

And, finally, it's impossible to get to. There's no direct entrance to the casino off the strip. (Is there?)

It's not like I hate the place - there are others that I dislike a lot more than IP - but I just don't feel 100% there. I'm out of my comfort zone - like doing the picks on a Saturday morning.

But here they are, anyway:

Bal 23, Cle 9. Tell me how we will stop a very angry Ravens team with Ray Rice in the backfield. He rushed for 200 against us a few weeks ago -without really even trying.

Den 31, Buf 20. I just can't see the Broncos blowing this one.

Car 27, TB 17. I can't trust the Panthers just yet to win convincingly, even over bad teams like TB.

Was 27, Min 13. I think the Vikes have packed it in for the year; Washington, somehow, is playing well - they remind me of the 2009 Mangini-led Browns.

Ten 24, Jax 17. What to think of the Titans after last week's loss to the Colts? They had a playoff berth in their hand!

Pit 23, StL 7. Let's see how Batch can play in this one.

Cin 24, Az 23. Again, I will say it: I don't trust the Bengals. They may win, but it will be down to the wire.

NE 27, Mia 24. Mia will be able to score on the Pats, and have some defense, enough to stay in the game.

KC 23, Oak 13. I think last week's loss is it for Oakland. They will pack it in.

NYJ 24, NYG 21. Does anyone outside of New York care about this game? Wow, what a dud this turned out to be.

SD 28, Det 24. I've gone back and forth on this one. Maybe - just maybe? - the Chargers have turned the corner (albeit too late)???

Dal 28, Phi 24. Just a hunch. Rob Ryan will figure something out after being embarrassed the last time he faced the Eagles.

Sea 27, SF 20. Seattle is too hot right now.

GB 31, Chi 10. The Pack have something to prove.

NO 34, Atl 23. Speaking of "hot" - I lost in my semi-finals last week due to Brees and his FIVE touchdowns.

Best bets: 15 of them. Last week: 8-5-1; overall: 128-99-11.

Bal -12
Den -3
Den/Buf over 43
Was -7
Az +4.5
Az/Cin over 41
Mia +9
KC -2.5
Oak/KC under 42
SD +1.5
Dal -1
Sea +1
SF/Sea over 37.5
GB -11.5
NO -7

Supercontest picks:
Bal -13
Den -2.5
Az +4
Mia +9.5
SD +2.5

NFL Week 15: Boomtown Casino

Good morning everyone! We are taking off for early this morning for Sanya, a resort town on the island of Hainan, located on the southern tip of China. (The best part, according to the kids? No immigration to travel through!)

Hainan island is currently the world's center for golf course construction; there are over 100 courses on the island, and more projects are underway. China is imposing strict regulations on the construction of new courses on the mainland; however, on the resort island of Hainan - go ahead! Knock yourself out! I think Nicklaus has multiple projects in progress now, as does Norman.....

Yes, I'm taking the clubs - and we are taking the boys' clubs as well. This will be the first time they will be golfing since we moved here; I'm sure they have outgrown the set we bought them in 2009. Freddie will be hitting my hybrid and then tossing it in the lake - just like his father!

I won't have access to the blog while I am gone, so I am up early this morning to post the picks. Getting up early to gamble is no big deal to me, but getting up early in order to post the picks before a morning flight requires a lot of logistics at 5:30 in the morning - very much like my degenerate travels to gamble in Biloxi.

There was one fall weekend in 2002 when I was in Albany, GA, for work - we have a paper plant there. I was there for a total of 9 days straight. Saturday we did testing on the line, and Sunday was a free day. What to do? I could go to a friend's bbq that evening (but I didn't know many people there); I could go to Friday's and watch the NFL games (but it was a dry country, so no beer), or......
I could drive 5 hours one way to Biloxi!

You know which one I chose. I left at 6; the first 2 hours of the drive was a trip going through the deepest of the deep south. (Find a map and try to find a route from Albany to I-10. It's very difficult). I arrived at the Boomtown casino around 11, where I gambled for 4-5 hours ($3 craps RULED!!!) and left around 5 to get back. I kept an eye on the Browns game while at the tables; the upset the Saints that day.

So today's small sacrifice for you, the dear reader, was nothing compared to what I did to get my fix 10 years ago. Ah, memories.

On to the games:

Dal 31, TB 14. The Bucs look like a team that has given up.

NYG 27, Was 17. I think the Skins will have a letdown, and the Giants know they have to keep going.

GB 31, KC 16. Orton is back! And lovable coach Romeo is back as well!

NO 27, Min 20. I neeed a big day from Harvin for one of my playoff games....

Sea 16, Chi 13. Chicago's offense still is struggling, and the Seahawks are on a roll.

Buf 27, Mia 23. Just a complete gut pick. I think Miami will lose a bit of their effort after Sparano was fired.

Hou 24, Car 23. Letdown for the Texans (just like the Niners let down last week).

Ten 20, Ind 13. The Colts are playing for Caldwell's job! That will give them the edge they need! (right? No...)

Cin 19, StL 16. I don't trust this Bengal team much anymore.

Oak 27, Det 20. Two teams imploding, so go against the dome team playing outdoors.

NE 24, Den 13. I saw the Broncos' game live last week, and I still don't believe it. How did that happen?

Phi 27, NYJ 24. I can't believe I am a sucker for the Eagles again this year.

Bal 27, SD 20. These are the games that the Chargers consistently lose under Norv.

SF 20, Pit 17. What a great measuring stick game for both of these teams.

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 12-7-1; overall: 120-94-10.

Dal -7
Buf -1
Mia/Buf over 41
Sea +3.5
Sea/Chi under 35.5
Car +5.5
Ten/Ind under 41.5
StL +7
NYG -6.5
Oak +1.5
NYJ/Phi over 44
NE -7.5
NE/Den under 46
Bal -2.5

Supercontest picks this week:
Dal -7
Sea +3.5
Car +6.5
Bal -2.5
And - for the first time this year! - Cle +6.5

NFL Week 14: Riverside Casino

It's going to be a relatively relaxing Sunday/Monday for NFL football for me, as the Browns have already gotten their heartbreaking loss out of the way on Friday morning. Thanks, guys! (I introduced one of our friends here to an impressive f-bomb rate in the 2nd half. I also have him convinced that all announcers are out to ignore/diminish the Browns. What's that saying? "You're not paranoid if they really ARE out to get you? That's how I feel....)

Anyway, (oh, by the way, how come I am watching the game 12,000 miles away, and I can tell that McCoy doesn't look right --- but Shurmur can't?)

OK, got that out of my system.

So now we head to week 14, and a plethora of games to focus on without the distraction of the Browns. Kind of like a relaxing buffet of games and 5 hours of the red zone channel.

And when I want relaxing gambling, there's no question what is #1 on the list - Riverside Casino in Iowa! $5 craps, $5 blackjack, $5 Pai Gow Poker, $5 roulette, and $5 UTH. What else can you ask for? It's fun, easy, and you can't get in too much trouble there in terms of losing a bankroll.

The clientele? Well, a mix of retired farmers and U of Iowa seniors. That's it - you are either 21 or 73 there. The 21 year olds are impressed if you double the table limit (ooooh! $20 odds?) and the 73 year olds are too into their own game and busy chatting with the dealers.

The dealers themselves are not very good - there were an average of 2 mistakes made every time I played craps, and UTH was a disaster - but most of the time they were friendly.

The picture above is the walkway from the parking lot to the casino (I think; I don't actually think I made that walk in the daylight). Most of the time that was made in 10 degree weather with 30 mph winds.

It's everything a non-stressful, low-intensity casino should be....just like a Sunday without Browns football. And I'm so glad (in retrospect) that it wasn't open when I lived there; with the boys being 4 and 2 years old, and Janice going to bed at 9:30 most nights, I would have made the 15 minute trip at least 3 days a week and become a regular. At least.....

On to the games:

Cin 23, Hou 13. The Bengals will take their Steelers/Ravens frustrations out on TJ Yates and the Texans.

NE 27, Was 16. I think Belicheck will get this team focused after a too-close win over the Colts last week.

NYJ 24, KC 10. I'll say it again, how does KC score more than 10 points?

Mia 23, Phi 16. I think the Eagles have given up.

Atl 27, Car 20. I believe in a very desperate Falcons team. Probably to my detriment.

Bal 28, Ind 13. Like the Pats, Baltimore will not show anything special this game, and (most likely) a back door cover will ensue.

Ten 23, NO 20. I don't think people realize how bad the Saits are on the road.

Det 33, Min 21. The vikings defense last week was awful.

Jax 16, TB 13. Another team that has quit - the Bucs! I think the Jags rally around their interim coach here.

Den 17, Chi 10. Boy, is Tebow catching the right teams at the right time.

SF 24, Az 23. Maybe a letdown for the 49ers as they clinched the division last week and the Steelers coming up next week.

GB 31, Oak 24. Another let down game - this time for the Packers after the dramatic win last week?

SD 31, Buf 13. Please just shoot me - why am I trusting this Chargers team again?

NYG 27, Dal 24. It's time for a Romo collapse in the 4th quarter, isn't it?

Sea 20, StL 6. The Rams remind me of the 2000 Browns with Spergon Wynn as QB. The Rams did not cross the 35 yard line last week.

Best bets: 20 (!!) of them. Last week: 10-7; overall: 108-87-9

Cin -3
NE -8
NYJ -10.5
Mia -3
Phi/Mia under 45.5
Atl -3
Ten +3.5
NO/Ten under 50
Min/Det over 46.5
Jax +3
TB/Jax under 40.5
Den -3
Chi/Den under 35.5
Az +4
SF/Az over 39.5
Oak +11.5
SD -7
NYG +4.5
StL -10
Sea/StL under 36.5

And for the Supercontest:
NYJ -9
Atl -2.5
Ten +3.5
Az +3.5
Den -3.5

NFL Week 13: Mandalay Bay

All the college football championship games (Clemson? ACC champions? Oh yeah, that Orange Bowl of Clemson vs TCU will be a real winner) remind me of a great weekend we had in Vegas for the end of the college football season – Layup’s bachelor party in 2006.

We didn’t technically go on Championship weekend – we went the week before Thanksgiving, which was then the end of the Big 10 season. There were so many games that Saturday, we camped out in the book for 12 hours placing bet after bet. It was awesome.

Mandalay is now one of my favorite casinos that I rarely go to anymore. The service seemed good, the table limits were high (although, looking back, were they really that high?), and the book seemed to have ample space to set up shop for the day. The games were normal – I don’t recall any carnival games – although I got killed at most of them. The restaurants were good, and (at the time) they had a good show in “Mama Mia”. ABBA music! What’s not to like?

The only problem is that you feel like you are on an island down there at Mandalay – if you want to leave the casino, there’s really nowhere to go within 10 minutes walk. You either take a cab or that stupid train to the Luxor. There’s no escape if you have a bad day.
Not much more to say about Mandalay – I would love to try it out again someday. But I’ll always have fond memories of the 2006 Ohio St- Michigan game, being in that book watching the last #1 vs #2 matchup (before this year).

On to the games.

NE 27, Ind 10. I don’t get the revenge angle here at all. “oooooh, Brady and Belicheck will pile up the score, and show the Colts who is boss!!! They will score 45 here!” Really? They’re going to rub it in to Jim Caldwell, Curtis Painter and crew? What’s the motivation here? They will run up the score – on purpose – against an 0-11 team? That smacks of weakness. This will not be the 45-3 beatdown that the Pats did vs. the Jets a few years back.

Ten 24, Buf 17. The Titans are still in it, and have the motivation.

Chi 19, KC 9. How many points will the Chiefs score on the road?

Atl 17, Hou 10. Again, how many points will the Texans score with their 3rd string quarterback?

Min 17, Den 13. If Tebow can do it AGAIN, this time in a dome….I don’t know. I am kind of a believer, but jeees – just put 8 in the box to stop the run! San Diego just plain quit last week, that’s how the Broncos won that game….

NYJ 20, Was 13. The Jets have to win out (or close to it). They won’t let the 2nd worst team in the NFC beat them.

TB 27, Car 17. Maybe Freeman is injured, maybe not. But I have enough faith in the Bucs defnse – and no faith in the Panthers D.

Mia 23, Oak 16. Oakland coming to the east, playing a 1:00 game vs a team that has 10 days rest.

Pit 24, Cin 20. I just think the Bengals will be in all these games coming down the stretch.

Dal 23, Az 20. A typical nail-biting win for the Cowboys in the desert.

GB 34, NYG 27. Does anybody really believe the Pack will lose a game this regular season?

SF 24, StL 6. Same comment above applies here – how many points do you see the Rams scoring? 6? 9? Maybe 10?

NO 34, Det 20. I think the Lions are in free fall.

SD 20, Jax 17. Maybe, just maybe, the Jags will be freed up and play loose after their coach got fired.

Best bets: 17 of them. Last week: 7-7; overall: 98-80-8.
Ind +20.5 (!!! I can't pass that up)
Ind/NE under 48.5
Ten +2
Chi -7
KC/Chi under 37
Atl -1.5
Atl/Hou under 38
Min +1
Den/Min under 37
NYJ -3
NYJ/Was under 39
TB -2
Mia -3
GB/NYG over 53
SF -14
StL/SF under 38
NO -8.5


For the Supercontest, maybe Tony Dorsett is the lucky charm we need (he looks good in person for being 50 years old!)

Ten +1.5
Atl -3
Mia -3
TB -3.5
SF -13

NFL Week 12: Luxor

We had a bad week last week. Our Supercontest picks are 0-9-1 over the last two weeks. (That is probably statistically impossible if we were picking 10 games at random). So - to change our luck, let's review the casino that I seem to always win at over the years.

That's right, the Luxor. Everyone's favorite gimmick casino. It is amazing to walk into the lobby, look up, and see the inside of a pyramid with the hallways facing out. And the light at the top - the most visible item on earth when viewed from space.

But the casino, and my history there, is what stands out. I think I got my first tip from a high roller at the craps table. (I was rolling, some guy was betting blue chips ($1000!) on the BIG RED every roll - and I was ice cold, and kept rolling sevens. He tossed me a $100 chip after a while. I was amazed!) That was in 2003, I think. Then there was Layup's bachelor party, when I had a very good blackjack run to end the trip.

The casino, of course, is nothing spectacular. It is overly-lit, laid out in a weird floor plan (because of the shape of the building, obviously). The dealers are unremarkable, and one entrance to the casino is the people-mover to the Excalibur. And the tram that one has to take to the Mandalay is odd.

But I don't ever recall losing much there. It has a warm place in my heart as a safe haven from the gambling waters. And if ever I need a safe haven, it's this week.

About the Browns - I'm pulling a Ben Crenshaw out here...."Mark my words, I've got a very good feeling about this...."

To the games:

Az 20, StL 10. It's amazing that we actaully lost to this Rams team.

NYJ 27, Buf 10. Are we one week too late on the Bills collapse? Or are the Jets worse than everyone thinks- and this will be a close game?

Hou 23, Jax 10. Schaub is out - so what? The Jags can't score, and the Houston defense is pretty good. How will the Jags score more than 10 points?

Ind 28, Car 24. This is it - the last stand for the Colts. A loss here and it is 0-16.

Ten 24, TB 10. I like what I see in Locker. Tampa's last stand was last week at Lambeau.

Atl 27, Min 17. I have Ryan in the playoffs (already? -ed) in one of my leagues- the 300 yd, 4 TD game just isn't going to come this year.

Oak 20, Chi 17. The Bears defense is still good, and will hold down the Raiders - but I don't have faith in the Bears without Cutler.

Sea 23, Was 10. Last week was an aberration- the Skins always play the Boys tough. Back to reality for Shanahan.

NE 27, Phi 20. I think Belicheck is a better coach (and has better players) than Coughlin, and will gameplan well for Vince Young.

SD 20, Den 14. Staying away from this game. Anything can happen here - a 30 point Charger win, or a 20 point Denver upset.

Pit 24, KC 10. Speaking of teams that can't move the ball - the Chiefs!

NO 28, NYG 27. The Giants are a perfect example of a zig-zag team. Just when you think you can write them off (last week), they will have a big showing.

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 5-9-1; overall: 91-73-8
Az +3
Az/Stl Under 39
NYJ -9.5
Hou -6.5
Ind +3.5
Car/Ind over 46.5
Ten -3
TB/Ten under 43
Sea -3
NE +3.5
Den/SD under 41.5
Pit -10.5
Pit/KC under 40
NYG +7

Supercontest picks:
Az +3
NYJ -8.5
Ten -3
Sea -3.5
NYG +7

NFL Week 11: Binion's

It's getting to that point in the NFL season where I feel like the picking becomes routine and less exciting. Over the first few weeks, the process to put together the picks is pure excitement. Another week! There's only 17 of them! Weeks 6-9 or so become an adrenaline rush, as we think we know some things about teams that Vegas (and others) haven't caught up on.

But now, the rush is gone, the reviews feel like work, and there's not a ton of effort that goes into these picks. It doesn't help that I spent all last week in India, where I didn't have a solid bowel movement for 5 days and we got delayed getting to the plant one day because a oil truck hit a motorcycle and killed two people. There's only one two-lane road to the manufacturing area near Bhopal - and that's an adventourous ride in itself; but then you have to avoid the cows, boars, and elephants on the road.

So there's not a lot of analysis in this week's review. Kind of like going downtown during our Vegas trip. Someone always suggests we do it one of the days - it's usually the third day, where tiredness creeps in. The intent to go downtown is -what? It's not the excitement of gambling; it's not the high stakes - what is it? I find myself not caring too much one way or another when I gamble downtown. So I lose $300 playing craps....that's fine for 4 hours of entertainment at Binions where the players are worse than in central Indiana, and the constant ringing of the drink "clicker" will be in your ears for days. The smoke will too.

It's fun, it's gambling, yes.....but I'm not a big fan of the downtown experience.

Let's get back to fun in the NFL this week. Maybe if we don't botch a snap on a 22 yard field goal to take the lead with 2:00 to go, some of the fun will come back.

Dal 23, Was 10. How, again, will Washington score? (ed- isn't it time for a Romo Pick 6? I think so. )

Min 27, Oak 17. Let's remind ourselves - Oakland is not good; they lost to Denver and Kansas City the two weeks prior. So they beat an imploding Chargers team. And Minnesota ran into a buzzsaw.

Buf 23, Mia 20. Miami's wins recently are against the Skins and the Chiefs. I'm not going to believe in them until they actually beat someone decent.

GB 31, TB 21. Something tells me the Bucs will keep it close.

Det 27, Car 20. You couldn't have two worse showings last week than those from these two teams.

Bal 27, Cin 24. I think the Bengals will stay in this, as the Bal defense is just not good enough to shut down teams like they used to. But I can't see the Ravens losing here.

SF 26, Az 17. The magical ride for the 49ers continues....

StL 23, Sea 10. The Seahawks are a different team away from home. And Jackson is a better runner at home.

SD 31, Chi 24. A purely irrational pick. Cutler can't have 3 great games in a row, can he?

Atl 30, Ten 20. This is the Falcons' season here. They will get up early and pile it on.

Phi 27, NYG 24. The Giants are due for an illogical loss right about now. And the Eagles will find something to pull this out (do I say that every week???)

NE 31, KC 14. Will anyone outside of Boston watch this game?

Best bets: 15 of them. Last week: 10-8-1; overall: 86-64-7
Dal -7
Dal/Was under 41.5
Min -1.5
Buf +3
TB +14
Cin +7
Cin/Bal over 40.5
StL -3
Sea/StL under 39.5
SD +3.5
SD/Chi over 45
Atl -6.5
Ten/Atl over 44
Phi +5.5
Phi/NYG over 45

We will switch it up this week; here are the 5 Supercontest picks.
By the way, I need to calculate the odds of me going 10-8-1......and 5 of the 8 losses were the 5 entries for the Supercontest.....

Min +1
Buf +2
Atl -6
StL -2
SD +3.5

Week 10 Picks

Maybe Felix Gordo will help us....

SD -7
Car -3
Buf +5
Det +2 1/2
Min +13

NFL Week 10: Belterra

It’s going to be a weird Sunday/Monday for me this week. I am flying to India and will be staying overnight in Delhi. I have not yet firmed up any sleeping plans for tonight, so I could be watching the games in a lonely corner of the Delhi airport bumming off the free wireless. Or, I could be in a “sleeping pod” they have at the airport, where overnight travelers can stay in and get a few hours of sleep. But with the arcane airport access rules that Indian airports have, I may be paying $300 for an overpriced hotel room that I will use for 5-6 hours.

So we need to think of a comfort of home this week, and what better comforting memory to have than the Belterra casino between Cincinnati and Louisville. It’s the only casino with UTH in the area, and was the most popular stop for me, Don, Mike, and others for the past 3-4 years. The limits are cheap – they still are! – there usually is a $5 craps table open all the time. The UTH is always $5 as well. The high limit room is expensive - $25 a hand for BJ in the room! Who can afford those stakes?

The clientele? Of course, not the best. That’s the only downside if you can handle it. The UTH table is particularly bad, if I remember correctly. I think I got yelled at for going 4x on A-Q; I know Don had plenty of strange looks with his card and going all in on K-7.

But it’s home, it’s comfortable. It’s like meat loaf. Yeah, it’s not flashy, and there are more elegant casinos in the area, but Belterra makes you feel all warm inside. I don’t ever recall getting killed there – I’ve lost money, sure, but not a complete outing disaster unlike other casinos.
And the Jeff Ruby steakhouse is a plus.

The Browns will hopefully have some meat loaf home cooking this week with the Rams coming to town. I remember Steve inviting me to a home game in 1991 to watch the Rams; I had to back out at the last minute due to some events that I won’t rehash here at this time. 99 was our expansion season, and the Rams were on our schedule; I thought that would be a game we could possibly win, playing on the road and the Rams starting QB, trent Green, went down in week 1!

Of course, that was the Rams’ magical season.

The first Monday night game in Cleveland since 99 was vs. the Rams in 2003; another disappointing loss, and that game spelled the end of the Couch-Holcomb merry go round. However, in 2007, we won in St Louis in the middle of the season as we realized that maybe this Derek Anderson was going to be a good QB……

When are we ever going to get a decent quarterback?????

On to the games:

SD 31, Oak 13. Uh, not so much.

Hou 24, TB 20. Tampa is a good home team, but how are they going to score
here?

Phi 31, Az 10. I have to believe that the Eagles will take out their frustrations on someone. And the Cardinals are terrible – Skelton on the road?

Mia 20, Was 10. Browns vs Redskins, neutral field…..over/under is 15? Who ya got? I am a little surprised that the Dolphins are still playing for Sparano. And I picked up Reggie Bush in one my league –a nice surprise.

Den 21, KC 20. Just a hunch. I continue to believe that Kansas City is no good.

Ind 17, Jax 14. Another rhunch. If there’s ever a game the Colts will win tis year, it has to be this one. How does Jacksonville move the ball?

Dal 30, Buf 28. Another sol crushing loss for the Bills. However, I don’t see the Cowboys stopping Buffalo like the Jets did last week – unless the Ryan borthers compare notes.

Atl 30, NO 24. I think the Saints have proven themselves to be a poor road team, and Atlanta is moving into high gear.

Car 27, Ten 13. Carolina off a bye ? They will figure out how to contain the Titans and score at home.

Pit 27, Cin 23, The Steelers are a trap pick, and I am staying away. But really, I am biased and I just can’t force myself to see the Bwengals winning here.

Bal 23, Sea 20. Seattle is a good home team, and this is a trap game for the Ravens. Steelers last week, and the Bengals next week?

Det 27, Chi 14. A letdown game for the Bears after the big win Monday night. I think the Lions will be ready to go after the bye.

SF 24, NYG 17. A game between two teams that I still don’t think are all that good. However, the Giants are on the road, and I think the 49ers wear them down with Gore.

NE 24, NYJ 20. This should be a great game, and I still have faithin Belicheck and Brady to not lose 3 in a row.

GB 27, Min 20. The Packers’ defense have a lot of holes in it. I think Ponder and the Vikings will score some garbage time points to cover the spread.

Best bets: 19 (!) of them, 0-1 already this week. Last week: 7-9; overall: 76-56-7
SD -7 (loss)
Phi -13.5
Mia -4
Was/Mia under 37
Den +3
Ind +3
Jax/Ind under 37.5
Buf +5.5
Buf/Dal over 48
Car -3.5
Ten/Car under 47
Atl -1
Pit/Cin over 41
Det +2.5
Det/Chi over 43.5
Sea +6.5
SF -3.5
NE +2
Min +13.5

The life of an ex-pat child, part 361

Last week, we dropped off the kids at school - and we noticed that all the teachers were in formal dress - women in dresses, men in suits. The boy scouts arrived ( the middle / high school campus is 30 km away; they are not usually at the elementary school) in their uniform and the American flag.

We learned that the US Ambassador to China visited the school that day to help celebrate the 30th anniversary of the school. The ambassador talked to the kids in an assembly that day.

We talked about this over dinner - we got out the internet and showed the boys this picture.

Do you know who is in the picture?

"Yes - that's Gary Locke! He is the ambassador from the US that came to the school today!"

And who is the other person in the picture?

"I don't know....he hasn't come to the school yet."

Hungry?

Are  you hungry?
Can I interest you in a hot dog with lettuce - for breakfast?

What about this as an afternoon snack?

I owe this blog a lot of posts

Yes, yes, yes, I am way behind in regular posts of updates of our life in China. I've got about 6 posts all lined up and ready to go - I just need the time to go ahead and type them up.

While you wait, please enjoy some more Dancing on the Square videos by our apartment. As usual, this is taken on the public square right by our apartment (with the Pearl River in the background).

I love the fact that the leader is counting in English.

Week 9 Picks

NO -8
Dal -11.5
NE -8.5
Pit -3
Chi +8

NFL Week 9: Monte Carlo

The Browns head to Houston this week to play the favored Texans. If maybe, somehow, the Browns can get out of there with a win - they would be 4-4 at the halfway mark of the season. Yes, it is unlikely, but it is possible. There is a very small chance - like hitting a 6 way parlay or a $100 hard 8 - but stilla chance.

It reminds me of the old days at the Monte Carlo. It would be Saturday afternoon - we had a bad, but not horrid, Friday night - and you are within sight of break even (.500). Just one good run is needed! One big parlay, one nice craps run, or one good shoe at blackjack....

...but it never comes. You sink deeper and deeper, and by the end of the day,you're just trying to hang on for dear life. I have a feeling, at 3-5, the Browns will be hanging on for life after Sunday.

What to say about the Monte Carlo? It's the scene of my first serious gambling multi-day trips (starting in 03). So many good memories, good and bad....and none of them invovled being "up" for a long period of time. I always felt that I was chasing losses....from Black Friday to the International Craps scene, and yes - of course - banking Pai Gow against my friends. But even though it's the scene of so many losses, there are some many good memories that it's impossible to frown when thinking of this place.

On to the games:

Atl 23, Ind 13: Where is Indy's mind? I have to think that Atlanta realizes they can't afford to slip up here, especially after a bye.

NO 31, TB 16: The Saints have to be pissed after the loss to the Rams. They will be hungry for revenge at home.

Buf 27, NYJ 20: The home field advantage for the Bills is worth 3 points alone. I think they will be able to score when needed, unlike the Jets.

Mia 20, KC 17. A total gut feel game. KC is not that good, and will suffer from a letdown after the Mon night gift.

SF 23, Was 20. When is the run going to end for the 49ers? Are they really going to go 4-0 on the east coast? (It's against the Skins, so yes)

Dal 27, Sea 13. Does anyone know who the Seahawks QB is? Rob Ryan and the Cowboys are out to prove something.

Oak 20, Den 10. We all know how bad Den's offense is. What about the Raiders? They scored 10 vs. the Browns and 0 vs. the Chiefs. Who says the will run all over the Broncos?

Ten 27, Cin 17. The Bengals, a 5 game winning streak? Please God, no.

Az 31, StL 17. One win vs. the Saints and we think the Rams are off the bottom 3? No. Rams are still in the bottom 3 of the league. They should not be favored on the road (until next week......)

NE 34, NYG 20. Going with the anger theme again - the Pats will take care of business after the loss to the Steelers.

GB 31, SD 24. I will not hazard a guess on where the Chargers' minds are at.

Pit 27, Bal 17. There's no way the Steelers will let themselves get swept by Flacco - at home. No way.

Phi 31, Chi 27. After a bye, the Bears will keep this close. I don't think we can be confident in the Eagles just yet.

Best bets: 16 of them. Last week: 8-6. Overall: 69-47-7.

Atl -6.5
Atl/Ind under 45
NO -8.5
Buf -2.5
Mia +4
SF/Was over 37
Dal -11.5
Ten -2.5
Oak -7
Den/Oak under 42
Az -3
StL/Az over 41
NE -9
Pit -3
Chi +8
Chi/Phi over 47

Week 8

I agree, Gigante!

Baltimore -12.5
Houston -9.5
Buffalo -6
Dallas +3.5
Kansas City +3.5

NFL Week 8 :Palazzo

The Browns this week play at San Francisco - a team they have not lost in 20 years! I remember a Monday night game in Cleveland in 1993 that I attended - Joe Montana came to town, and we were big underdogs. Belicheck had a great game plan to shut down (or, rather, contain) the Niners and Michael Dyson (he was Michael Jackson, if you recall) had 2 touchdowns in the big win.

This is a test - believe it or not, the Browns are 3-3. Are they for real? Many will answer no, but we shall see. If they win - or even keep it close - it is a good sign for the team.

It's very much like our annual $25 craps run we have in Vegas - usually done at the Palazzo. The Palazzo is an upscale casino, and it's nice to try to test your skills at the high-roller place. The dealers are awesome, as they are sincerely rooting for you. If you can survive for more than an hour at the $25 craps table at the Palazzo, that is a stripe on your uniform.

Let's see if the Browns can get that stripe today.

To the games:

Bal 31, Arz 10. The Ravens are as mad as hornet's nest, and will take it out on a horrible road team.

Min 27, Car 20. Just a hunch. I think Ponder will continue to impress, and the Viking defense is just good enough to win.

Hou 24, Jax 10. I think we see just how bad the Jag's offense is - I think the Texans will be able to score in the 20s.

Ten 20, Ind 13. Have the Colts now officially given up for the season?

NO 30, StL 10. Should we ask the same question about the Rams?

NYG 24, Mia 20. Something about this game is fishy. I think the Giants' D is awful - see the loss to Seattle - and Miami's defense is halfway decent. I think the Dolphins keep it close.

Buf 31, Was 17. I don't see how the Redskins can keep up with the Bills' offense.

Det 23, Den 20. I have no idea on this game. Let's wait a few weeks to really evaluate Tebow.

Pit 34, NE 31. Yes, yes, I know, NE dominates Pit at Heinz field. But the Steelers match up well.

Cin 17, Sea 13. Ugh. My eyeballs still hurt watching Seattle try to move the ball last week.

Dal 27, Phi 24. I think the Cowboys are balanced enough to win this. And I believe Rob Ryan will be able to contain Vick.

KC 24, SD 23. Another blown game by Rivers, Turner and co.

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 8-6; overall: 61-41-7.
Bal -12.5
Min +3.5
Hou -9.5
Jax/Hou under 41
Ind/Ten under 44
NO -13
NO/StL under 48
Mia +9.5
Buf -6
Pit +2.5
NE/Pit over 52.5
Dal +3
KC +3

Picks for week 7

What is with that hair?

Detroit -3
Tampa Bay +1
Houston+3
San Diego -2
Kansas City +4

NFL Week 7: Venetian Macao

Hello - we are typing this week's preview live from - the Venetina Macao! The boys have school off on Monday and Tuesday for parent conferences, so we decided to take a long weekend and head here for 2 days. Actually, I was here last week to see a college friend who was in town (the immortal Ken from the golf team), so this is my second consecutive Sunday at the Venetian.

The Venetian is the biggest casino in the world, although it doesn't seem like it. It's all in one big room, unlike the MGM, which has its floor space broken up into multiple areas. The main game is baccarat, which is played very much like poker....the cards are dealt down to the player, who then pulls up a corner (like he's shielding the cards from....I'm not sure who), bends then back, puts a crease in the cards, studies them - and then flings them in anger at the dealer. It's like Steve and I playing gin back in the 90s. ("You have gin, sir? Well F you" - as I throw my ten cards in his face).

The cards are only used once, and then disposed.

A new came is here - I'm not sure what it is called, but it is a 10-foot diameter ring with a super model. SHe is flipping a coin - and the bettors around the ring bet on either green (phoenix) or red (dragon). I'm not sure where the commission comes in....but all it looks like is people better on the flip of a coin by Miss Macau 2012.

I've talked about craps before - but it is still fascinating that everyone plays the numbers and only about 30-40% of the people play the pass line. I was rolling, and in the middle of my roll I rolled a 3...no big deal, no harm done.....the guy next to me turned his numbers off.

After I hit the point, and established another, I did the same thing...and he turned his numbers off again.....and then, on another roller, someelse else joined him. The different superstitions that they have on this game fascinate me.

Speaking of "3", the winner of the Browns-Seahawks game will (believe it or not) be 3-3 on the season. Let's not lose a 1 pm home game to the worst road team in the league....

On to the games....

Hou 27, Ten 21. I believe this is a desperate time for Houston -they can't lose 3 in a row, especially to a division opponent. Desperate times call for desperate measures...

SD 24, NYJ 16. A big test for both teams - are the Jets still a good team? If so, they will win. If the Chargers are elite, they will win here.

Det 27, Atl 13. The Falcons are overrated, and the Lions won't lose 2 straight at home.

Was 19, Car 16. I don't really have a good idea. Why do I think Shanahan will get this team ready to play, after last week's performance? Maybe Beck will provide some magic.

TB 23, Chi 17. The Bears overperformed last week, and they will prove this week they are an average offensive team.

Mia 17, Den 13. Miami's offense - even with Moore - will move the ball vs. Denver's weak defense. And Miami will be pissed that they are honoring Tebow at halftime.

KC 23, Oak 20, OT. Boller will start? He looked awful last week.

Pit 31, Az 20. The Cardinals have a bad pass defense - and Pittsburgh (make no mistake) is a passing team.

Dal 23, StL 10. I see the Rams putting up a little fight - this is a letdown game in a way for the Cowboys - but they won't be able to last with Feeley at the helm.

GB 27, Min 17. Yeah, this should be a 24-point thrashing by the Pack. Maybe Peterson will give some spark here.

NO 34, Ind 16. The COlts are in a horrible position....losing motivation just as they go to New Orleans, who needs a win to keep pace in the division. The Saints will be up 20 at half.

Bal 24, Jax 16. I think this will be a Monday night stinkfest. Hope Ray Rice can get me some yards and TDs.

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 7-7-1; overall: 53-35-7.

Hou +3
SD +1
Det -4
Atl/Det under 47
Was +2.5
Was/Car under 43.5
TB +2
Mia +1
Den/Mia under 41.5
KC +4
Pit -3.5
Pit/Az over 44
StL/Dal under 43
NO -13.5

Eric's Culinary History

Last week on Yahoo, I saw a link that was a list of "America's Disappearing Restaurant Chains". I thought that would be good for 2 minutes of entertainment - I thought York's Steak House or Bill Knapp (that was then, this is WOW) would be 1 and 2.....

.... 30 minutes later, I was sad, depressed, with a tear in my eye. This list brings back so many memories! I have personal experiences with 8 out of the top 10!

1. Bennigan's
There was one mall in Iowa when we lived there in 2004-05, the Coralville mall. Attached to the mall was a Target, where we (of course) made 5,215 stops at over 2 years. Next to the Target, accesible through the mall and through Target, was Bennigan's. We spent countless winter nights at Bennigan's, watching god-awful Big Ten basketball (Penn St. vs Minnesota, anyone?) and trying to make a 4-year old Freddie eat one piece of honey-mustard drenched lettuce and a 18-month-old Warren just eat one piece of hot dog (and no, not the piece that just fell on the floor).

2. Ground Round
Wow, this alone makes me cry. What a treat for Layup and me growing up when Dad would come home on a Friday and say: "it's payday! Let's go to Ground Round!" We'd either go to the one in Timonium (there was one there, right?) or up in York...and I would have the Salisbury steak. I'm a grown man- I'm 14! No hamburger for me! Give me the Salisbury steak - and then I would drench it with A1. MMMmmmmmmmmmmmm......
(There was a Ground Round in Iowa - I tried to take Janice there, she wanted no part of it....)

3. Baker's Square
Well, this is a must for any college student in NE Ohio. How many locations of Bakers' Square were there in Cleveland in the eatly 90s? 40? 50? There was one near every Finast, that's for sure. A slice of French Silk pie to go, please!

4.Damon's
Bakers' Square was college food....but you aspired to graduate from college to eat and watch sports at Damon's! I disticntly remember driving by a Damon's in March, 1994 in Solon (or Mayfield - somewhere on the east side) saying to myself: "I can't wait to have a job and money, so I can blow 2 days just sitting at Damon's, eating the Big Onion Loaf and watching the NCAA tournament......."

and when I got my first job in Dayton, that's exactly what I did in 1996!!!!My friend Paul and I spent 10 hours at the Damon's on Dorothy Lane watching the games. My first car - a brown Toyota Celica hand me down from Mom and Dad - turned 100,000 miles as I was driving to Damon's.

And that's where I watched this game - a game that brings a smile to any ACC fan......

5. Don Pablo's
How in the hell is this place on the list? I went here for lunchat least once a week for 3 years. Find a warehouse, serve cheap Mexican food, overcharge for it, serve expensive and fruity Margaritas.....profit! How do you screw that up?
Don Pablo's was one of only like 4 restaurants near her apartment in 1996-7 in Springdale, near Tri County mall. It was packed at 4:30 pm every day. There was a 20 minute wait every time we went - and we went often. How did they screw this up so badly??

7. Big Boy
If you have stepped foot in Ohio, then you must have eaten here at some point. What's your favorite thing? I was not a regular customer, but several friends kept trying to take us to the Big Boy's breakfast buffet on the weekend. Sorry, I prefer Shoney's.

8. Tony Roma's
Ah, another restaurant which you only aspired to go to when you were in college. There was a Tony Roma's on Mayfield on Birch in Beachwood/Mayfield Village (Kermit, is that right??) that we would drive past every day to and from golf practice. Ribs.....is there anything better to eat after a round of golf? 2 or three times in our career,we would get our $8 meal money for dinner after a tournament, and then grab some more money from the ATM and head to Tony Roma's......for completeyly average ribs that seemed at the time to be worth a million dollars.

9. Country Kitchen
Ah, another Iowa speciality. I think I went to a few of these on my travels around the state for golf....taking my 15-year old caddy with me into the restaurant. A lower-quality Bob Evans, with good breakfast.


So many memories.....all about to disappear.....

Week 6

This week's picks:

Car +4
Ind +7
Pit -12
Chi -2.5
NYJ -7

NFL Week 6: The (Late) New Frontier

The Browns are coming off a bye this week, going to Oakland – and facing the Raiders in the first home game since Al Davis died. I have many good memories about the Browns going to Oakland and winning –there was the classic game in 2005 where we won 9-7 (three Dawson field goals); who can forget a game in 1993 when Eric Metcalf returned a punt for a TD in the 2nd half to win.
Of course, there was a big loss in 2007 – the year we went 10-6 – when we were down 2 in the last seconds; Dawson kicked a 40 yard field goal to win – except Oakland called time out right before the snap. After the time out, the kick was blocked; that loss cost us a division titie and a playoff spot.

I had a 5 year bye myself with casino gambling from 1994-99. When I returned to Vegas for the 2nd time ever with Layup in 99, we stayed at one of the old classic casinos that is no longer there – the Frontier. They made low rollers feel right at home. $5 craps player? Great! Have a buffet coupon! To a young gambler, that was heaven – we felt like Sally Field. “They like us! They really like us!”

It had all the basics for a low budget, serious gambler – low limit blackjack, crpas tables, and roulette table. I think the dealers were actually friendly, too – they talked to you, not lke that pompous joint across the street (the Desert Inn). If you wanted a break from gambling at the Frontier, they had Keno; they also had the manual, whiteboard sportsbook. That huge whiteboard was mesmerizing during an NFL weekend.

We were able to overlook the cigarette burns in the bedsheets and the worn out carpet throughout the casino. Also,you had to get through the picketers out front – but if you never left the casino, you didn’t have to worry about it! I think Layup had his first major craps run here during this trip.

On to the games for week 6:

Car 27, Atl 23 – I just don’t like what I see rom Atlanta. You can’t take that big lead against GB, at home, in a primetime game, and then come out flat. And Carolina is rady to win a road game now. Us Browns fans would be very happy to see the Falcons keep losing.

Cin 20, Ind 17 – I know, I can’t help myself. I just don’t see the Bengals blowing anybody out.

Det 31, SF 23 – I think this Lion team is the real deal – they have the QB, WR and some running game, and the front seven of the defense is solid. And the 49ers now have injuries at the WR position.

GB 34, StL 17 – I can see the Rams scoring some points, but how is anyone going to stop the Packers?

Buf 30, NYG 27, OT – I was able to watch the Giants/Seahawks game last night; I can’t get the vision of Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst tearing up the NYG D out of my head. If those Seatt;e QB’s can do it, I think Fitzpatrick can.

Pit 28, Jax 10 – Believe me, I’ve seen plenty of bad offenses go into Heiz field over the years. I don’t see the Jags scoring more than 10-13.

Was 23, Phi 17 – All right, I’m sick of waiting for the Eagles to show up. I believe in Shananhan after a bye.

Bal 27, Hou 23 – I think Houston will figure a way to keep it close – but lose, of course.

NE 31, Dal 27 – Speaking of keeping it close…. And then losing….we have Tony Romo! Dallas will be within 4 down the stretch – will he lead the Cowboys to a TD and the win, or fumble, or throw the pick six? You know it’s one of those 3.

NO 23, TB 20 – I just don’t think the Saints are the same team outdoors. And the Bucs need to show something as a bounce back after the debacle in SF.

Chi 24, Min 13 – The Bears are desperate; they have a good enough defense to shut down a one-dimensional offense in the Vikings, and they are at home. Are you telling me that Donovan McNabb will lead this team to victory?

NYJ 30, Mia 13 – Matt Moore on the road, against a Jets team returing home after a 3 game road trip?

Best bets: 15 of them. Last week: 8-5-1; overall: 46-28-6
Car +3.5
Ind +6.5
Det -4
SF/Det over 45.5
GB -14
Buf +3
Buf/NYG over 50
Pit -12.5
Was +3
Phi/Was under 47
Hou +7
TB +6.5
NO/TB under 49.5
Chi -2
NYJ -6.5

Week 5

We continue this week:

KC +2.5
Phi -2.5
Jax -2.5
NYG -9.5
NYJ +9

Vietnam Notes

We just had a week long holiday here in China - so we got out of the country and went to Vietnam. We spent 3 days in Saigon (now called Ho Chi Minh City, or HCMC) and then 4 days at a beach town called Nha Trang.

Some completely random notes on the trip that may be of interest:

1. I know it's a sample size of 1, but our tour guide in Saigon was very complementary of Americans and disliked the people from the North. Yeah, I guess it is the spoils of war and all - the North "reunified" the country, and they are in the seat of government - but she talked openly of how the government and the "North" took everything over commerce-wise from Saigon in the past 10-20 years, and no one likes it. I guess I'm shocked that she was so open about it, and from her impression, the South part of Vietnam is still very much pro-American.

2. Went to the Cu Chi tunnels one day - that was interesting. The main attraction are the network of tunnels that the Viet Cong built underground. Freddie, Warren and I went in one and traveled about 40 meters - Freddie complained about them being too small. Warren was fine; he stands just under 4 feet. I was on my hands and knees the whole way.

.

And they say they have been enlarged for the tourists.

Of course, there were some disturbing images. There was a display of the man-made traps that the Viet cong built in the jungle. The picture here was the backdrop from the display. That was disturbing


3. A lot of French influence in Saigon. Here is a picture of the main Saigon post office - designed by a French architect. It was undisturbed during the war.

4. Tons - and tons - of motorbikes all over the place. Tons.

5. We also took a tour of the War Museum - yes, the propaganda was in full force there. There was a room called "Historical Truths". In it, charts outlined the American support for the "puppet" government in Sotuh Vietnam from 1954-75. There was a wing solely dedicated to the damage caused by Agent Orange. (The room was orange, by the way). And there were a few American tanks outside on display.

6. The beach town, Nha Trang, was unique. One of the attractions was a resort island called VinPearl. It is kind of like HersheyPark, Sea World, and Chuck E Cheese's all rolled into one, contained in a 5-star luxury resort.

We went on a Wednesday in what is the offseason. The admission fee was about $18 each. The park was open; there were maybe 50 people - maybe - in the whole park. The boys went on water slides for 2 hours and went to the wave pool for another 1 1/2 hours. No lines, no crowds. Just then it started to pour; there was an attraction called "Indoor Games"; in there were bumper cars, a kids play area, and 30 or so video games. All were free.

The play area had about 25% of the safety features of a normal Burger King play area. A sign was present saying the park had no liability for any "severy injuries or fatalities caused by this area". I did not doubt for one second that there mayhave been a fatality there in the past.

The kids corner also had a room for toddlers, with those kids' cars, whiteboards, and toddler beds (for napping). About half the beds had dirty sheets on them.

I'm still in amazement on how this place is still open. Oh - the picture we took is from a cable car that you must take to get to the island. The cable car was built too low; now cruise ships can not come in and dock in the city. This resort apparently has not made many friends in the town.

NFL Week 5: MGM Grand

It's bye week for the Browns after laying a stink bomb last week vs. the Titans. 60 passes for Colt for 350 yards - 60! - breaking the franchise record. We dominated time of possession, but trading FGs for TDs early, and key defensive breakdowns bring us to 2-2 at the break.

Talking about breaks, the one Vegas casino that I take a relative break in is the MGM grand. Many years, we have a dinner at this casino, and we spend the hours before and after the dinner gambling at that casino. Most of the time, I don't gamble as much as other casinos. I hate the layout and the warehouse-like feel of the place. It's impossible to find an afforable craps game - I think there are more craps tables at the Monte Carlo than the MGM.

The dealers are excellent, but the limits are just too high. I just don't want to put in a long session on a Saturday night at the MGM. The one exception, of course, is if they bring back the "Card Sharks" game.....then maybe I will ask for the limits to be raised to $100.....

I've played BJ there for a limited bankroll; played higher-limit Pai Gow Poker ($50) for little risk - but nothing major. It's a nice place for taking a breather, for people watching (especially the people in this group), for light sports wagering - and not much more. A bye week during a typical Vegas trip.

On to the games:

Phi 31, Buf 24. OK, one last game to think that the Eagles will turn it around. And how good are the Bills, really? They beat an imploding KC team, won in a shootout vs. the Raiders, beat the Pats, but lost to the Bengals. So if they play a team with any semblance of defense, they will lose.

Pit 24, Ten 17. I think the Steelers are out to prove something here.

NYG 31, Sea 10. Seattle, on the road, in a 1pm game.....vs the Giants with a good pash rush. Hmmmmmm......Seems too obvious.

Min 20, Az 17. Two teams that can't close. No idea here - except that there will be a lot of mistakes.

Jax 23, Cin 13. Gut feeling - Jax's offense is slowly getting better with Gabbard, and Cincy's offense hasn't done much.

KC 24, Ind 17. I think Painter comes a bit back to earth here for this game.

Car 27, NO 24. All right, yes, I am a sucker for the Panthers.

Hou 27, Oak 24. This one should be decided by a field goal.

SF 24, TB 13. I don't think Tampa is all that good. They can't score if they play a semi-tough defense.

SD 30, Den 23. Denver's defense is the worst in the league. The question is - will the Chargers play down to the competition, again?

NE 30, NYJ 27. The Jets are struggling on offense - and that's fine here, since the Pats have no defense! I think this will be a shootout, and the Jets will stop the Pats just enough to make it close.

GB 30, Atl 28. Atlanta's stand here. They have got to show something here to give them confidence going forward.

Det 28, Chi 16. I think the Lions will come out firing immediately and get a huge lead on the Bears right away.

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 11-6; overall: 38-23-5

Phi -3
Pit -3
NYG -10
Az/Min under 45
Jax -1
KC +2
Car +6.5
SF -3
SD -3.5
Den/SD over 45.5
NYJ +7
NYJ/NE over 51
Atl +5.5
Det -5

Week 4

This week's picks:

NO -6.5
NE -4
Arz pk
SD -7
Ind +10

Next stop: Vietnam

Tomorrow we are leaving for vacation (yes, another week-long Chinese holiday week); we are heading to Vietnam. 3 days in Saigon, and then 3 more in Nha Trang, a beach town.

We already have some tours lined up in Saigon - we will be seeing the Cu Chi tunnels, going to the War Museum, and some other city sightseeing. I don't think the tunnels will faze me too much - it will be interesting to see the network of tunnels that they built during the war. However, the museum may be too much. Most of the reviews that we've seen about the museum say that they are incredibly biased. I'll see how long I can stay in there before walking out.

And then, of course, Sunday night at Midnight, I will be on my slingbox watching the kickoff of the Browns game in the hotel. Is this what we envisioned as a future life in Vietnam 40 years after the war? We are fighting so that Americans can watch the NFL whenever, whereever they wanted in Vietnam?

NFL Week 4: Oneida Casino

Well, the Browns are 2-1....and I really have no idea what to expect from this team. Are they good? (not in a Packers-good kid of way, but maybe Falcons, Eagles, or (dare I say) Steelers way - average to slightly better-than-average?) Or are they lucky and not very good at all? Yes, they have only beaten the Colts and Dolphins....but look what happened when Pittsburgh came to Indy. No one is putting the Steelers 20th in the power rankings.....

Anyway, I don't know what to expect from this team. We're 2-1 for the first time since - 2002. 9 years ago. We are veering a bit from our comfort zone here. And if somehow we can win vs. Tennessee, that means we are 3-1 at the break. I'm not confident, however; Chris Johnson has got to get untracked at some point and our run D is not good.

Speaking of moving out of the comfort zone, every young engineer in Tissue Towel that cared any bit about gambling had a trip to the Oneida casino in Green Bay. I still remember my first trip there fairly well. (And no - surprisingly, it was not with a fellow engineer that had multiple projects in Green Bay at the time...his name was Don).

I went with two other older engineeers in 1998 - it was a Monday night during football season. The Packers were not on. We went to one of the multiple $5 blackjack tables - all the $3 tables were full - and I sat down with $20.

I was not comfortable. It was not Vegas, and it was not my hometown Argosy. Were the rules different? (no) The players? (yes) The drinks? (no alcohol).

My $20 lasted 1 1/2 hours. My two fellow co-workers, who both busted out after about 15 minutes, were amazed. How in the hell did I make it last that long?

I think I have made at least 10 trips there during my time in Tissue Towel. The atmosphere at the casino would make Steve, Layup, Wiz, and others crazy. The age limit is 18 - so 18 year old are playing at the table with me. Let's just say the quality of play sucked. And since the age limit was 18, no alcohol was server. A bunch of high school seniors, drinking Mountain Dew and playing blackjack with me. That's Oneida.

On to the games!

Chi 23, Car 13. Back and forth on this one. I don't think Carolina has played a good defense yet this year.

Stl 23, Was 20, OT. A pure letdown pick after the Skins loss (but cover) on Monday night.

Phi 24, SF 16. I can't figure out the Eagles just yet.

Min 24, KC 20. I think Peterson will get the carries he dserves in the 4th quarter to seal it.

NO 26, Jax 13. With Gabbert, I think the Jags are one of the 3 or 4 worst teams in the league. And the Saints realize they can't slip up and fall to 2-2.

Hou 31, Pit 23. I know, I know, every year I say that BOTH Baltimore and Pittsburgh can't be good. I was wrong last year. I don't think I am wrong in 2011. Pittsbrugh can't run, and they can't stop a pass rush. A one-dimensional team can get to 8 or 9 wins, but not much more.

Dal 24, Det 20. Gees, if the Lions win THIS one, when is the letdown ever going to come?

Buf 20, Cin 17. The Bengals have a defense - but their offense won't be able to score enough.

Sea 26, Atl 20. Maybe these Falcons are not as good as advertised. (And that would make Browns fans extremely happy, as we own their #1 draft pick next year).

Az 27, NYG 20. Letdown, plus Fitzgerald vs. the beat up Giants secondary.

GB 28, Den 20. What's the motivation here for the Packers to go all out for this game?

SD 30, Mia 13. I think last week was the last straw for Sparano - the players are giving up.

NE 34, Oak 23. The Pats after a loss? I wouldn't want to be this team. And if the Pats lose? A lot of reevaluation will be going on.

Bal 29, NYJ 20. This game will have a lot of passing yards, and therefore a lot of scoring.

Tam 21, Ind 17. I can't see Tampa scoring enough to pull away.

Best bets: 17 of them. Last week: 9-8. Overall: 27-17-5.

Chi -6
Car/Chi under 42
Stl +2
NO -7
NO/Jax under 45
Hou -3.5
Pit/Hou over 45
Buf/Cin under 43.5
Sea +4
Atl/Sea over 38
Az +1
Den +12
SD -7
NE -4.5
Bal -3
NYJ/Bal over 42.5
Ind +10

Week 3

The picks for week 3:

Cin -2.5
Phi -6.5
NO -4
Ind +10.5
Was +4.5

Back to Civilization?

I was fortunate enough to spend this week in the US (in Cincinnati) for the company Modeling & Simulation meetings. I spent Sunday with Layup, watching the NFL games at BW-3's for 6 hours. Having breakfast, snack, and lunch at BW-3's right off the airplane did not do good things for my stomach. It did not take all that grease kindly.

Layup is a wonderful good luck charm when watching the games. If he goes to the bathroom, it's a guarantee that something good will happen to the games we wagered on. He missed 2 Tampa Bay TDs in the can, and missed 2 Dallas TDs in the afternoon. He was also taking a piss when Romo completed the long pass in overtime.

I am finding myself becoming more Chinese, bit by bit. Some examples:
- when paying by credit card, it is now a habit for me to hand the card over with 2 hands (a very Asian custom).
- I went to McDonald's; the bill was $5.27. I didn't have a $5 or $10 bill, so I handed him a $20 and a $1. He looked at me like I was on Mars. This is standard practice in China.
- He asked if this was for here or to go. I said "it is take away" - exactly the broken English that is used everywhere in China.

I got to see my parents on Monday and Janice's brother on Wednesday - where a fully loaded duffel bag full of clothes and other goodies were waiting.

I'm heading back home tonight - and probably will see sights like those in the picture above as soon as I get in. This picture is taken on the sidewalk on the street in front of our complex.

See the man by the tree? He has picked up his son by his armpits - and, yes, those are the kid's legs dangling in the air.

And yes, the kid's pants are pulled down to his knees. I hope the dad brought some sort of toilet paper.

NFL Week 3: Casino Royale

While we were reviewing the games this week, it was apparent quickly to Layup and I that there are several "trap" games on the schedule. Trap games are those where the superior team (on paper) should easily win - but the line is set at a place where everyone thinks it's too low. This usually happens when the favorite is the road team. Most analysts and bettors quickly look at the line, scoff at it - and jumps quickly on the favorite. By Sunday afternoon, it's clear it was a trap as the bettors lick their wounds.

I don't think there is a better definition of a "trap" casino than the infamous Casino Royale. Everyone know this place - right across the street from the Mirage, proudly advertising "$5 craps with 100 x odds!" - and on weekdays the limits could be even lower! They also have Blackjack switch!

More than once in Vegas, Layup and I have been bored - so we have the great idea to go to the Casino Royale. "C'mon", we say to each other. "How much trouble can we get into there? We'll roll the dice for a while - it's a $5 table! How much can we lose, $150??"

Two hours later, we struggle back into the daylight, absolutely beatne to a pulp. "What happened? 15x odds on the point of 8 sounds like a perfect idea!"

I think my career losses at the Royale are greater than losses at other, well known Vegas casinos, like the Luxor, Aladdin, TI, and Excalibur.

It was also the start of the Blackjack Switch love affair for our group. I remember one trip going, with Wiz, Layup, me, and maybe Jay. Layup was deathly ill (as usual) and sneezed and coughed all over the cards. He was sitting right next to Wiz - and Wiz was none too happy with this. Every cough made Wiz slug Layup in the arm, tellin ghim to get his "God damn saliva off of my cards". Of course, Wiz got sick later that week. *

* - maybe I have mis-remembered some (or all?) of the details. I'm sure I will be corrected in the comments.

Anyway, I think we are done with Casino Royale trips for the foreseeable future. How long can that casino, on a prime location on the strip, still be in business?

These are tough games this week - be very careful when wagering. Don't fall into the Royale traps.

NE 34, Buf 23. I'm too lazy to go against the convention wisdom for this game here. NE will be up by 10-17 all game, and Buffalo will score late to make it closer.

Cin 24, SF 13. The Bengals are an OK offensive team. The 49ers are not - and the Bengals defense is adequate.

Ten 23, Den 13. I was surprised to see the Titans stop the Ravens last week.

Det 20, Min 17. Casino Royale Game #1! Detroit has to come back to earth sometime, right?

NO 34, Hou 27. Who has Houston played? A shell shocked Colts team, and Miami at home. They have not been tested yet.

Phi 27, NYG 16. The eagles were moving the ball even with Kafka back there at QB.

Car 27, Jax 13. I think Cam keeps it going, although this could be Casino Royale Game #2.

NYJ 23, Oak 20. Casino Royale Game #3. This will go down to the wire and be decided by a field goal.

StL 24, Bal 20. Casino Royale Game #4. The Rams are desperate and at home - and won't self destruct like they did Monday night.

SD 31, KC 13. Not much to say here. The Chiefs offense could be the equivalent of the 1999-2000 Browns offense.

GB 20, Chi 19. Casino Royale Game #5. Should be a lot closer than people think.

Arz 20, Sea 17. Casino Royale Game #6. Seattle was playing a desperate Pittsburgh team last week - now they are at home facing a weak Arizona defense.

Atl 20, TB 16. I just don;t like Tampa's M.O. of falling way behind early.

Pit 24, Ind 20. Casino Royale Game #7. Indy is improving since thir world was rocked before the season started. They still have offensive weapons - Addai, Wayne, Clark. I'm not predicting a Colts win, but I think it will be close.

Dal 24, Was 23. Dallas just is not that good.

Best bets: 17 of them. Last week: 9-4-3; overall: 18-9-5.

NE -7
Cin -2.5
Den/Ten under 42.5
Det/Min under 45
NO -4
Hou/NO over 51.5
Phi -8
Car -3
StL +4
SD -14.5
Chi +4
GB/Chi under 45.5
Az/Sea under 43
Atl +1.5
Atl/TB under 46
Ind +10
Was +4.5

This week

The picks this week:

NO -6.5
Jax +9
TB +3
Dal -3
Atl +2.5

NFL Week 2: Argosy Casino

This week, the Browns go to Indiana to play in a new, pristine stadium that has been built in the last 2 years. The old stadium was serviceable, but it doesn't have all the amenities and space that the new stadium has. However, the old stadium really had charm, noise and character; the new stadium is anitseptic.

Hey wait, I'm not talking about the RCA Dome and Lucas Oil Field - I'm talking about the old Argosy Casino and the new Hollywood Casino!

The old Argosy - wow, I have a lot of memories from there. A temporary casino in Lawrenceburg opened in 1996, I believe. When I was working for TASC, a bunch of us from Dayton amde a road trip down there. I was still playing blackjack 80% of the time - and was at a $5 table. I put $10 in the circle - big money! - and they were about to deal the cards when a co-worker of mine butted in and put 5 red chips of his in my circle.

"Hey! What the hell are you doing?" I blurted.
"What? I'm piggybacking"
"What does that mean? You're messing things up!!"

I got dealt and ace, then a king. Blackjack. I still was pissed at him.

Layup and I would go there at least once a year, blaring Annie Lennox from the radio as we drove down the lonely stretch of I-275 at 9 at night.
Don and I would secretly root for a rain out if we were playing in Kentucky so that we could sneak over to Lawrenceburg instead.
I successfully convinced Janice we should go for a Argosy run for my birthday in January, 2001....so we spent 3 hours at a smoky craps table......(while she was 8 months pregnant).
When I worked at Winton Hill, in the west side of Cincinnati, I actually snuck over there for "lunch" one day - left work at 11, got back around 1:30. Yes, I was by myself. Why do you ask?

And then, the intimacy, the magic, the memories are all gone. The Argosy was replaced in 2009 with the monstrosity that is the Hollywood Casino. It's huge, impersonal, and it frankly sucks. I don't win there. The atmosphere is terrible. The dealers are all new and horrid. I will purposely drive 20-30 minutes out of the way to gamble at one of the other casinos.

It's what is happening to all the NFL stadiums now (and, to an extent, all new stadiums). The character, intimacy, and feel is gone. Sports Guy hsa wrote about this - the home field advantage is less nowadays just because of the structure of the new stadiums - they don't give the advantage to the home team like they used to.

Anyway - the Browns going to Indy, and their new stadium, reminded me of Argosy for this reason...I know it's a tenuous link. Dad is actually going to the game on Sunday - I'll report what he says about the atmosphere.

On to the games: (and there's no way in hell I'm predicting anything about this Browns team)

Buf 24, Oak 17. I still am trying to figure out each of these teams.

Was 27, Az 17. My goodness, the Cardinals' secondary is horrid. Grossman and the Skins will light them up.

Bal 24, Ten 21. A classic letdown game for the Ravens.

Pit 28, Sea 10. The Seahawks are in the bottom 5 of the league. The Steelers should take their frustrations out on them.

NYJ 20, Jax 17. I refuse to believe the Jets are championship caliber.

NO 31, Chi 17. The Saints are a bit desperate - they won't go 0-2.

TB 23, Min 20. Another desperation game - this time for the Bucs.

GB 30, Car 24. I do believe that the Panthers will be able to move the ball on the Pack. They won't win, but maybe Cam is for real - at least until defensive coordinators figure him out.

Det 24, KC 14. Alarm bells! This one seems too easy.

Dal 23, SF 16. I have to thinkn that Garrett will get this team fired up after their loss on Monday. They can't afford to go 0-2 (and 2 games behind the Skins?!?!?)

NE 31, SD 27. An old fashioned shootout at Jack Murphy. Where is Charlie Jones and Todd Christensen when you need them?

Cin 20, Den 16. Not exactly a vote in the Bengals, but against the Broncos.

Mia 24, Hou 20. Another classic trap/letdown game for the Texans. They threw everything they had into week 1 vs. the Colts. A letdown is impossible to avoid.

Atl 27, Phi 24. Another desperation game - this time for Atlanta.

NYG 20, StL 13. These offenses are pretty putrid.

Best bets: 16 of them. Last week: 9-5-2 (based on the lines I listed).
Buf -3
Was -3
Bal/Ten over 38
Pit -14
Jax +8.5
NO -6.5
TB +2.5
Car +10
GB/Car over 45.5
Det -7.5
KC/Det under 44.5
Dal -3
Cin +3
Mia +3
Atl +2
Stl/NYG under 44

Off we go!

Here are F&J's week 1 SuperContest picks. Lord help us!
The entire field's picks can be found here.

TB -1.5
Min +8.5
Arz -7
NE -7
Den -3

NFL Week 1: Palace Station

Here we are again! The opening week of the NFL season. The preseason is interminable as the anticipation for the opening week begins. Next thing we know, it will be week 6 with 1/3 of the season already gone.

I love the idea of tying each week to a Casino that I have visited! So, for week 1, of course, we will review the first casino I gambled at – the wonderful Palace Station! Everyone remembers their first Vegas trip – the buildup is tremendous, the plane is full of energy, the shuttle bus ride from the airport contains 32 overweight middle-aged women hoping to hit it big at slots, and the bus driver reciting lame puns about “Lost Wages” (yes, that’s an indelible memory)….

… and the next thing you know, it’s day 2 of the trip and you are down $200. (which was a HUGE amount of money for me in 1994!)

That is very much like week 1 of the NFL season – everyone is giddy, even Chris Berman seems funny – and then your favorite team lays an egg. By Monday, you are wondering “what the hell happened to my team/picks/fantasy team?” The Monday/Tuesday after week 1 is usually such a letdown.

Let’s hope the afterglow of week 1 is better than the final day of my first Vegas trip – where I had to resort to playing BINGO at Palace Station (I think I won a pot worth $7.75) and I eventually got carded while playing the nickel slots.

Onward to the picks!

GB 23, NO 20 – yes, a cop out pick. I do believe the Saints will be better this year. We will see how the rookie Ingram does.

Bal 27, Pit 17 – I do believe in the power of desperation. If a team is desperate, they will throw everything out there in order to win that game. It’s hard to think of week 1 as desperation, but if the Ravens lose – at home – they will be 1 down to the Steelers and they still have to go to Pit. Sports Guy’s podcast threw this idea out, and it makes sense. I think the Ravens will do anything to win this game.

TB 26, Det 20 – I like Josh Freeman, and I don’t trust the Lions (do they have a RB?) yet.

Atl 23, Chi 20 – who knows. I’m afraid of the Falcons outdoors. Cutler is good for some good games, and the Falcons don’t have a great defensive team.

KC 17, Buf 16 – Tyler Palko is in. Wow. Do they really deserve to be a heavy favorite here?

Hou 27, Ind 17 – I’m staying away from each of these until we find out more from each team.

Phi 20, StL 19 – The Eagles’ O-line sucks. I would be scared if you have Vick on your fantasy team.

Ten 27, Jax 17 – I’ve seen the Luke McCown show before – 5 years ago. I don’t think he has gotten much better from his days when I proclaimed for him to be the answer in Cleveland.

Was 27, NYG 24 – Grossman is starting, and the Giants have no secondary. This seems like a good opportunity for Grossman to have a nice start to the season before a real defense comes along.

Az 27, Car 13- - I just see the Panthers as clearly the worst team in football.

SF 20, Sea 16 – no idea here. Who’s starting for the Niners?

SD 24, Min 20 – look here now. Minnesota is not that bad. They have the best RB in football. McNabb is adequate – and he’s much better than what Favre game him last year. I think this will be a close game.

Dal 23, NYJ 17 - I think Sanchez is a mediocre quarterback – and look who the Dallas D coordinator is – Rob Ryan, our D coordinator last year. Rob developed game plans against Brady, Brees and Sanchez last year – and we went 2-0-1 against them. * I think Sanchez will look a little lost at times out there.

NE 30, Mia 16 – I just don’t see how NE is threatened in this game.

Den 30, Oak 20 – I like Kyle Orton. I think he’s at least an average quarterback. And I the coach is definitely an upgrade.

Best Bets of the week:
Bal -1
Pit/Bal over 36
TB -1.5
Buf +6
Buf/KC under 40
StL +4.5
Ten +2
Ten/Jax over 37
Was +3
Was/NYG over 37.5
Az -7
Min +8.5
Dal +4.5
NE -7
Den -3
Oak/Den over 40


*we beat the Pats and the Saints last year – and if we chose to, we could have tied the Jets. However, Mangini gambled for the win instead of settling for the sure tie (a decision I agreed with) , but lost. So I count this as a tie in my book.