As we prepare to shock the world tonight*, I musy say publicly that I applaud Belichick and feel he made a good decision.
For thsoe in stats:
P (converting on a 4th and 2) > 0.5 > P(stopping Manning on an 80 yard drive with 2:00 left)
In other words:
- it's better than 50/50 that if you punt, you lose
- You have a better chance to make the 4th and 2 than you do to stop the Colts
So -why not play the statistics and go for it? It's a smart move. It didn't work out.
* - by "shock the world", I mean either:
a. having a coach fired during the 3rd quarter of the game
b. Using 4 quarterbacks in a half
c. By having less than 5 turnovers
Can't rationally address this now. It was not a smart move. Will expand later.
ReplyDeleteThank you Bill. Because of you Addai scored another TD that won me my one fantasy league. You rock!!!
ReplyDeleteNo one wants to hear your fantasy football stories.
ReplyDeleteEric may be on to something...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.weei.com/sports/boston/patriots/christopher-price/2009/11/16/when-it-comes-fourth-down-belichick-anything-con