OK it is Saturday morning and I'm finally feeling back to normal. Here is the story:
Like most males I only go to the doctor if 1) I'm bleeding internally 2) I am missing an appendage 3) My wife tells me I have to go. So I went to the doctor for a "routine" physical on Wednesday morning. I feel fairly certain that there is nothing routine about having another man squeeze and rotate your testicles, but thats just me. Anyway, nearing the end of the exam he says "OK, we just need to do the rectal exam". At this point I am sure I had the Troy Aikman face going pretty good. At first I thought OK that isn't too bad I can take it, then he starts digging around like someone who is trying to find some lose change in a backpack. I'm just waiting for him to scratch the back of my teeth, ouch!!! Finally, I'm walking around like John Wayne and they tell me I need to get a booster shot of some kind. I guess I needed a shot since I was just violated.
Later that evening Laura asks me how I'm feeling and I say "Let's see, I've had my balls squeezed a few times, had a needle in my arm, and I was ass-raped... I feel great!!"
Bottom line, stay away from the doctors.
Mar 31, 2007
Mar 26, 2007
The U.N. Security Council, Vegas-Style
Like any good consultant, I've spent the last few days interviewing stakeholders from the latest Vegas trip and have come up with some recommendations to be implemented going forward. First off, there are a couple of overriding themes that I think that everyone can more or less agree to:
-This is the all-star trip. This is for serious gamblers who aren't interested in shows, clubs, walking around downtown, or trips to the grand canyon.
-While we all enjoy some individual time, it's the group camaraderie that makes the trip.
-The same group (more or less) has been going for a while and has a certain rhythm/routine that is generally accepted.
-We're all grown-up enough that we're making decent money and don't need to do everything on the cheap.
Keeping those overarching themes in mind, the following are my recommendations:
1. Minimum bankroll = $3,000.00.
Yes, of course you can go out with less, but you're going to be "that guy" standing around watching everyone else is screaming "backdoor action!!!" and high-fiving or screaming "change that card!!!" and then crying. I think that Derek's budget post was a good guideline for approximating your budget (he ended up estimating about $4,000). With $3K, you are able to play $25 minimums and withstand the inevitable "Black XXXday". You need to have the financial wherewithal to sustain heavy losses and still soldier on. The wins will come (unless you are me at the sports book, then you should just stick to the Wheel).
2. Credit card roulette MANDATORY.
With one minor caveat: $750 max loss. I don't care if I just met you an hour ago, you need to understand that we're going to play and you're in. It's HUGE for the chemistry of the weekend. Two things on this:
a. You know going in, so there are no surprises.
b. Aspire to be like Don.
Don is the patron saint of CC Roulette in my eyes. He walked in to dinner at Mesa Grill a couple of years ago, barely knew half of the people at the table, didn't really want to play, but did anyway. He lost, but he took it like a man. Instant great story, and instant respect forevermore from pretty much everyone who was there that night. Needless to say, I heart Don.
3. Everyone stays at the same hotel.
a. It's the group togetherness thing. It just doesn't work if half the people are at Hotel X and half are at Hotel Y.
b. We graduated beyond certain hotels. Obviously, I heart the Mirage. But regardless of where we stay, I think that we've graduated beyond the NYNY/Monte-caliber of casino. You like the 24-hour McDonald's at the Monte? Great, enjoy that in June. You like the roller coaster at the NYNY? Ride it over and over in November. The March trip demands certain things that those casinos can't offer.
4. Three people per room.
This one is clearly more of a guideline, but if you're following guideline #1, you should be playing enough to get a few nights comp'd. And at that point, it's more about personal comfort in the room. We're not 20 years old and cramming into a room at Mardi Gras, we're all making decent money and could use a little space (and designated toilet time). Throw in laptops, golf clubs, bags, and Jay's crazy NBA games/nights matrix, and you've got a very full room.
5. 1-2 new people per trip.
If you can introduce a limited number of new people per trip, they are molded to the group, not vice versa. The newbies need to be peer pressured into a big bet on the Lady Boilermakers, be convinced to play $100 hands of Pai Gow, to learn the true beauty of a reverse parlay "layup", and be convinced to play $25 craps just because there are hot chicks at the table. If there are too many new guys, they end up doing their own thing and splintering from the group.
6. The Security Council Permanent Members.
a. Derek, Wiz, Leland, Eric. I know, I know. Could I be any more of a pompous, self-important ass? Actually, yes, but I'll save that for another post. Save my absence this year for extenuating circumstances, everyone has made the trip every year for the last few years. Everyone is committed to the core principles, and puts in the necessary "sweat equity" of planning (rooms, golf, dinners, hotels, gaming strategy, etc) and studying (hoops info--women's and men's, pro and college).
China, France, The Russian Federation, the U.K. and the U.S., if you will. (I know that there are 4 people and 5 permanent members, see part b below.)
b. Jay, Laura, Don, and Micah make up the Russian Federation seat on the council. They are all no-brainers for the trip, but for one reason or another (i.e. not wearing a shirt when sleeping in the same bed as another guy, a multi-year hiatus, or a penchant for 3-Card Poker) aren't a permanent member. One suggestion was that we rotate one member of this group onto the security council on an annual basis.
7. Admission policy
Should there be a desire for a new person to join the trip, he or she must be sponsored by a Security Council member (one of the 4 permanent permanent or the rotating permanent member). The sponsor will have to present their case during a concall of all security council members and it takes a 3/4 vote for them to be allowed (5 permanent members, the one presenting member does not vote). On Saturday night during the trip, the security council will vote on the future of the new member. Should this person be voted out, the sponsor pays for the dinner of the other security council members. Voted in, and that person is cleared for future trips.
I think that we discuss and tweak this for the next few days and write a constitution. I really don't see why this is so hard for the Iraqis...
-This is the all-star trip. This is for serious gamblers who aren't interested in shows, clubs, walking around downtown, or trips to the grand canyon.
-While we all enjoy some individual time, it's the group camaraderie that makes the trip.
-The same group (more or less) has been going for a while and has a certain rhythm/routine that is generally accepted.
-We're all grown-up enough that we're making decent money and don't need to do everything on the cheap.
Keeping those overarching themes in mind, the following are my recommendations:
1. Minimum bankroll = $3,000.00.
Yes, of course you can go out with less, but you're going to be "that guy" standing around watching everyone else is screaming "backdoor action!!!" and high-fiving or screaming "change that card!!!" and then crying. I think that Derek's budget post was a good guideline for approximating your budget (he ended up estimating about $4,000). With $3K, you are able to play $25 minimums and withstand the inevitable "Black XXXday". You need to have the financial wherewithal to sustain heavy losses and still soldier on. The wins will come (unless you are me at the sports book, then you should just stick to the Wheel).
2. Credit card roulette MANDATORY.
With one minor caveat: $750 max loss. I don't care if I just met you an hour ago, you need to understand that we're going to play and you're in. It's HUGE for the chemistry of the weekend. Two things on this:
a. You know going in, so there are no surprises.
b. Aspire to be like Don.
Don is the patron saint of CC Roulette in my eyes. He walked in to dinner at Mesa Grill a couple of years ago, barely knew half of the people at the table, didn't really want to play, but did anyway. He lost, but he took it like a man. Instant great story, and instant respect forevermore from pretty much everyone who was there that night. Needless to say, I heart Don.
3. Everyone stays at the same hotel.
a. It's the group togetherness thing. It just doesn't work if half the people are at Hotel X and half are at Hotel Y.
b. We graduated beyond certain hotels. Obviously, I heart the Mirage. But regardless of where we stay, I think that we've graduated beyond the NYNY/Monte-caliber of casino. You like the 24-hour McDonald's at the Monte? Great, enjoy that in June. You like the roller coaster at the NYNY? Ride it over and over in November. The March trip demands certain things that those casinos can't offer.
4. Three people per room.
This one is clearly more of a guideline, but if you're following guideline #1, you should be playing enough to get a few nights comp'd. And at that point, it's more about personal comfort in the room. We're not 20 years old and cramming into a room at Mardi Gras, we're all making decent money and could use a little space (and designated toilet time). Throw in laptops, golf clubs, bags, and Jay's crazy NBA games/nights matrix, and you've got a very full room.
5. 1-2 new people per trip.
If you can introduce a limited number of new people per trip, they are molded to the group, not vice versa. The newbies need to be peer pressured into a big bet on the Lady Boilermakers, be convinced to play $100 hands of Pai Gow, to learn the true beauty of a reverse parlay "layup", and be convinced to play $25 craps just because there are hot chicks at the table. If there are too many new guys, they end up doing their own thing and splintering from the group.
6. The Security Council Permanent Members.
a. Derek, Wiz, Leland, Eric. I know, I know. Could I be any more of a pompous, self-important ass? Actually, yes, but I'll save that for another post. Save my absence this year for extenuating circumstances, everyone has made the trip every year for the last few years. Everyone is committed to the core principles, and puts in the necessary "sweat equity" of planning (rooms, golf, dinners, hotels, gaming strategy, etc) and studying (hoops info--women's and men's, pro and college).
China, France, The Russian Federation, the U.K. and the U.S., if you will. (I know that there are 4 people and 5 permanent members, see part b below.)
b. Jay, Laura, Don, and Micah make up the Russian Federation seat on the council. They are all no-brainers for the trip, but for one reason or another (i.e. not wearing a shirt when sleeping in the same bed as another guy, a multi-year hiatus, or a penchant for 3-Card Poker) aren't a permanent member. One suggestion was that we rotate one member of this group onto the security council on an annual basis.
7. Admission policy
Should there be a desire for a new person to join the trip, he or she must be sponsored by a Security Council member (one of the 4 permanent permanent or the rotating permanent member). The sponsor will have to present their case during a concall of all security council members and it takes a 3/4 vote for them to be allowed (5 permanent members, the one presenting member does not vote). On Saturday night during the trip, the security council will vote on the future of the new member. Should this person be voted out, the sponsor pays for the dinner of the other security council members. Voted in, and that person is cleared for future trips.
I think that we discuss and tweak this for the next few days and write a constitution. I really don't see why this is so hard for the Iraqis...
Mar 24, 2007
Friday Night
Ugh, I'm hurting. Last night my office had a March of Dime Poker event off-site. It was at this lady's house in Long Beach with a $30 entry fee with half of the proceeds going to the March of Dimes. They had about 30 players, most of them being employees of mine. I ended up getting to the final table with a very small stack but battled for a while and doubled up twice late to be the second largest stack. Then out of no where, they called the tournament since it was going too long. Why do you do that? Anyway, I didn't complain since they were my employees and I'm not going to make a big deal about it. Also I came in second place and finished in the money. When they gave me my winnings, I just gave it back to the lady hosting the party and made sure that my winnings either helped cover some of the cost of all the food or it went to the March of Dimes.
Now I've been on a huge wining streak in office gambling pools over the last year, but my hands are tied to actually keep the money. I never want to take money from these guys so I either end up using the money to sponsor some of the employee's kids sports team or I just dump it into our activity fund. With my Superbowl square winnings in 2007, I'm now the proud sponsor of the Signal Hill's 9-10 baseball team. The winnings purchased a new banner which they display in their dugout at every game. Last year's March Madness bracket and Superbowl squares winning allowed us to have close to a $1000 tab at our Christmas party.
So with that type of action I usually get invited to a bunch of these things. Happy Hours, Poker events, wine tasting and such, since the younger employees think that its cool that I drink and gamble and when I win I give up the money. I will usually go but step out early so everyone can cut loose a little more without the boss being there. But the only problem is that I have to watch my drinking. For example, last night I was splitting a 1/2 gallon Capt Morgan with one of my supervisors (25 years old) and a claim rep (22 years old). I let them make me a drink twice and it was like drinking gasoline. Is this how our drinks used to taste back in the day? Never let your young employees make you a drink. Never!!!
Now I've been on a huge wining streak in office gambling pools over the last year, but my hands are tied to actually keep the money. I never want to take money from these guys so I either end up using the money to sponsor some of the employee's kids sports team or I just dump it into our activity fund. With my Superbowl square winnings in 2007, I'm now the proud sponsor of the Signal Hill's 9-10 baseball team. The winnings purchased a new banner which they display in their dugout at every game. Last year's March Madness bracket and Superbowl squares winning allowed us to have close to a $1000 tab at our Christmas party.
So with that type of action I usually get invited to a bunch of these things. Happy Hours, Poker events, wine tasting and such, since the younger employees think that its cool that I drink and gamble and when I win I give up the money. I will usually go but step out early so everyone can cut loose a little more without the boss being there. But the only problem is that I have to watch my drinking. For example, last night I was splitting a 1/2 gallon Capt Morgan with one of my supervisors (25 years old) and a claim rep (22 years old). I let them make me a drink twice and it was like drinking gasoline. Is this how our drinks used to taste back in the day? Never let your young employees make you a drink. Never!!!
Weird Vegas stories
The wild and wacky adventures this past weekend that I experienced...none of the characters below involve any one on the trip:
Sports Book #1:
So I'm standing in line behind a mid-40s guy, clearly some sort of convention attendee. He goes up to the book and asks...
"How do I make a $100 bet?"
OK - a beginner's questions. No problem. The teller states that he can either make a $99 bet to win $90 or a $110 bet to win $100.
The next question, though...
"So what do I have to bet if I want to win $120?"
What the hell kind of question is this?
Sports Book #2:
Saturday night, I go up and place the Ole Miss ladies bet:
Me: "$44 on 4638, please"
Teller types.....it comes up Ole Miss -4.5
immediately after that comes up, the teller breaks into song:
Teller:
"HODDY TODDY
ARE YOU READY???
Hell yes, damn right!!!
hoddy toddy gosh almighty
who in the hell are we...HEY!!!
flim flam, bim bam
OLE MISS BY DAMN!!! "
There is a blank stare in my face...
Teller: "Ole Miss grad here - class of 87 - damn proud of those Rebels!"
I should have said what was on my mind , which was along the lines of what Rhett Butler said to Scarlett O'Hara.
I mumbled something about "please just give me my ticket..." and slowly backed away.
Sports Book #3:
Friday morning as I am deliberating.... the trash-collector in the book comes up with his broom and dustpan.
"Do you want a tip?"
I didn't have time to respond before he started again.
"Take the Long Beach and Albany money line parlay. Big money! They're both going to win."
I politely thanked him for his advice.... but I should have asked him a couple of questions...
"You're job is working the 4 am - noon cleanup shift in the book, right? So should I assume that your handicapping abilities may be less than stellar?"
I should say what's on my mind more often.
Poker #1
I'll never forget this hand for a while.
I'm in middle position, I look down and see 8-7 suited (diamonds). No callers before me, I decided to splurge and throw the $2 blind in. Two more players call, and both blinds are playing - so we have 5 players. I will act 3rd.
Flop comes 2 of clubs - 2 of spades - 4 of diamonds
Well, I think, that was a waste. I get ready to toss my cards.
Two checks before me. I check. Two more checks.
Well, we're going to see a free card!
Turn comes 10 of hearts. 2-2-4-10 on the board.
Well, that sucked. That's how you lose money, I thought - you have no business being here. Oh well, it's only $2....
Two more checks in front. I happily say check! - and two more checks follow.
How am I now in at the river on this hand???
The river comes 4 of hearts.
The board is now 2-2-4-4-10, no flush possible.
I take my chip off my cards....
and then the first player throws his hand in!!! There has been no bet yet, of course....
The second player does the same!!!!
I'm sitting there in shock - someone mumbles something about "you know, you could have checked....."
and before I can act, the 4th guy - the guy to my left who should be acting after me - mucks his hand too!!!!!
Again, there was no bet!
So now I find myself heads-up with a hand that can't beat the board.
I say "check?". The last players responds with a resigned "check...."
I turn over my 8-7; he turns over a 7-6.
We split the $10 pot.
Two of the guys who folded were pissed. "You guys didn't have a face card? I would have won that hand with my (Q-3) or (J-6)!!"
Well, as Kermit would say, "Sorry for your luck".
Sports Book #1:
So I'm standing in line behind a mid-40s guy, clearly some sort of convention attendee. He goes up to the book and asks...
"How do I make a $100 bet?"
OK - a beginner's questions. No problem. The teller states that he can either make a $99 bet to win $90 or a $110 bet to win $100.
The next question, though...
"So what do I have to bet if I want to win $120?"
What the hell kind of question is this?
Sports Book #2:
Saturday night, I go up and place the Ole Miss ladies bet:
Me: "$44 on 4638, please"
Teller types.....it comes up Ole Miss -4.5
immediately after that comes up, the teller breaks into song:
Teller:
"HODDY TODDY
ARE YOU READY???
Hell yes, damn right!!!
hoddy toddy gosh almighty
who in the hell are we...HEY!!!
flim flam, bim bam
OLE MISS BY DAMN!!! "
There is a blank stare in my face...
Teller: "Ole Miss grad here - class of 87 - damn proud of those Rebels!"
I should have said what was on my mind , which was along the lines of what Rhett Butler said to Scarlett O'Hara.
I mumbled something about "please just give me my ticket..." and slowly backed away.
Sports Book #3:
Friday morning as I am deliberating.... the trash-collector in the book comes up with his broom and dustpan.
"Do you want a tip?"
I didn't have time to respond before he started again.
"Take the Long Beach and Albany money line parlay. Big money! They're both going to win."
I politely thanked him for his advice.... but I should have asked him a couple of questions...
"You're job is working the 4 am - noon cleanup shift in the book, right? So should I assume that your handicapping abilities may be less than stellar?"
I should say what's on my mind more often.
Poker #1
I'll never forget this hand for a while.
I'm in middle position, I look down and see 8-7 suited (diamonds). No callers before me, I decided to splurge and throw the $2 blind in. Two more players call, and both blinds are playing - so we have 5 players. I will act 3rd.
Flop comes 2 of clubs - 2 of spades - 4 of diamonds
Well, I think, that was a waste. I get ready to toss my cards.
Two checks before me. I check. Two more checks.
Well, we're going to see a free card!
Turn comes 10 of hearts. 2-2-4-10 on the board.
Well, that sucked. That's how you lose money, I thought - you have no business being here. Oh well, it's only $2....
Two more checks in front. I happily say check! - and two more checks follow.
How am I now in at the river on this hand???
The river comes 4 of hearts.
The board is now 2-2-4-4-10, no flush possible.
I take my chip off my cards....
and then the first player throws his hand in!!! There has been no bet yet, of course....
The second player does the same!!!!
I'm sitting there in shock - someone mumbles something about "you know, you could have checked....."
and before I can act, the 4th guy - the guy to my left who should be acting after me - mucks his hand too!!!!!
Again, there was no bet!
So now I find myself heads-up with a hand that can't beat the board.
I say "check?". The last players responds with a resigned "check...."
I turn over my 8-7; he turns over a 7-6.
We split the $10 pot.
Two of the guys who folded were pissed. "You guys didn't have a face card? I would have won that hand with my (Q-3) or (J-6)!!"
Well, as Kermit would say, "Sorry for your luck".
Exaggerate much?
Len Pasquerelli put out an article about Denver's fascination with the Browns' cast-offs on Defensive Line. The signing of Alvin McKinley by Denver is now the 8th DL acquired by Denver who was an ex-Brown. The article is here.
One of the user comments made me sit up and take notice:
Gerard Warren - next to the vietnam war - (is) probably the biggest failure and disappointment in this nation's history.
Well, I don't know about that. I'm sure in Don's eyes, Gerard Warren is the 3rd biggest failure in US history behind the Vietnam war and George Bush. Enron, however, is a spot behind Big Money (tm).
Don - are you sure you didn't write this?
One of the user comments made me sit up and take notice:
Gerard Warren - next to the vietnam war - (is) probably the biggest failure and disappointment in this nation's history.
Well, I don't know about that. I'm sure in Don's eyes, Gerard Warren is the 3rd biggest failure in US history behind the Vietnam war and George Bush. Enron, however, is a spot behind Big Money (tm).
Don - are you sure you didn't write this?
Mar 22, 2007
Vegas diary
OK everyone, time for EZ's running diary of the Vegas weekend 2007.
Wed night:
Derek picks us up at the airport; I decide to take his car and go pick up Don at the airport so he can avoid the 45+ min taxi line. Get to the casino around 12; after walking around for a while getting my bearing, I decide to call it a night. First time ever that I did not gamble the first night. Good thing, since....
Thu morn:
I wake up in bed wide awake at 4:30. Get to the book at 5. Review the numbers and follow my strategy - only pick a few number of games and go big on those. After 2+ hours of deliberation (I felt like I was on a jury for a murder trial), I decide on:
Md -7
Marq/Mich St over 123.5
Ohio St/CCt St iver 126.5
Tx AM -13.5
VCU/Duke over 135.5
Tx AM/Penn under 135.5
Pitt/Wright St Under 120.5
Eastern Ky/NC Over 143.5
VCU +6
BYU +2.5
Louisville (-6) just missed my list.
Derek comes by - I told him I feel sick about these picks. I wanted to avoid any 1/16 games; here I am taking 2 of the overs in those games.
Get breakfast at McDonalds and meet Derek, Wiz, Micah and Dick at Caesar's. I bring my McDonald's bag over and Derek is shocked - SHOCKED! - that I only have one Sausage McMuffin in the bag. Hey there Derek, it's a new Eric. Two years ago, of course, there would have been 3 of those in the bag.
As Wiz has said, there was a lot of nervous moments in that game, compounded by seeing Louisville up 30 over a weak Stanford team. I pulled a Khruschev at one point, taking off my loafer and banging it on the bar at Caesar's.
But as the Terps started to break away, we broke out in celebration. I disticntly remember a free throw with about 1 min to play to put the Terps up 10; Micah was just about to do a strip tease on the bar; Derek and Wiz were hurting each other doing high-fives; and I was playing the coach, nervously pacing back and forth behind the bar, hoping the clock would tick faster than ever before. Dick then opens his mouth and says "Well, that about does it for the Terps, doesn't it?" We all shoot him an icy stare for that possible Gooch.
Golf that afternoon, as Wiz said, was forgettable; the most intense part of the round was 18, where there was a good deal of money on the match and I had a 2-tier putt from 45 feet for birdie; Don had a 60-footer from the fringe for birdie, and Wiz had a 7 footer for bogey/net par. While this was going on, my phone is going nuts as Derek is frantically trying to get a hold of us as the VCU/Duke game is ending.
Get back in time to watch BYU pull a great cover out of their ass - picking up a loose ball at the buzzer and laying it in to cut the deficit from 4 to 2. Final results for day 1 on the sports picks: 8-2. Not bad. I think I like this strategy.
Dinner, I thought, was good. Don picked a GREAT wine. Wow. Wow wow wow. Ended up touring Casino Royale a bit after dinner - Leland, if you like your gambling dark, that's your place. Ended up going to bed (and I heard I shouldn't, as Mike and Saran won a good deal of money at $15 craps that night at the Mirage).
Friday morning came early, with our early tee time. Got up at 5 to put the bets in; the deliberation only took 75 minutes. I only took 7 games to shoot the gun at - 7 games, that is, in the afternoon!God, I hate myself. And yes, RRD, I had Va -8.5.
What a great round of golf at Royal Links. This course was literally surrounded by trailer homes, so we had no idea what to expect. Outside the course, two other items made this round memorable:
1) We had the first tee time of the day. Absolutely perfect. I'd pay a premium to do this again. I know Kermit won't believe this, but I was in a foursome that played in under 4:15. We teed off at 7:40 and were back in the casino at 12:30.
2) Two words: breakfast burrito. Oh my - for $10, I had the best burrito ever. Filled with ham, bacon, potatoes, eggs, a bit of sausage, peppers and onions. And huge- huge! It took me 4 holes to eat it.
Went 4-3 in the morning, so I put 7 more bets for the afternoon. Went to Red Rock, because Derek had a lot of nice things to say about it - and he was right. You never felt crowded, and everyone who worked there was friendly. Had a great time and run at craps - except for Kevin, who decided not to join at the start; he then joined the table after we all won a significant amount of money - you can see this coming a mile away - and the table went cold.
Went 4-3 for the afternoon as well, so with the overall 15-8 with the big sports bets and a good run at craps, I was up - about $800! Decided to play $25 Pai Gow with Wiz, and that's when we met Morty. Fucking asshole. Typical New York guy with a big nose - do I have to tell you his religious preference - who was one of those "outgoing" know-it-alls. Not truly an asshole, but is friendly as he tells you exactly what you should do.
Lost $300 there, including the post-Morty $100 hand that Wiz convinced me to play. But I learned two things:
1) Whenever Wiz gets the Ace of Spades, he greets it with a "Hello, Bee!" salutation. I immediately picked that up and am taking it to poker and blackjack.
2) The Tom Collins at the Mirage gives you a veritable fruit salad in the drink! Orange, lime and cherry...... got my vitamin C for the weekend with 5 of those drinks.
Saturday morning brought a headache (hello, Motrin) and 7 big bet picks:
Mich St + 9.5
G'town -8.5
Tx AM -3
Maryland -5.5
UCLA -7
Vandy/Wash St under 128
VCU/Pitt over 13.5
Planned to go downtown to the Nugget. When we got up, Kevin, Mike and I were up for it.... Saran? Saran? It was 8:30 and no sign of Saran. He comes in about 8:45 - obviously up all night. There was no need to ask him if he wanted to go downtown. He was out in 35 seconds.
Before we leave, we discussed what we wanted to play; we all looked forward to playing craps together. Mike then blurts out "Great! I've never had a losing session playing craps!"
Uh oh.
We get dominated. It wasn't a killing, but a slow and steady erosion. I stopped after about 1 1/2 hours and started watching basketball (and Micah's sports injury). Had a blast playing $5 pai gow poolside for 4-6 hours. Strawberry Daiquiri's for everyone.
As you can see, the sports bets did not work out at all. 1-5-1 on Saturday. That, plus the craps losses and the Purdue Lady Boilers' loss (we took a collection and called a $275 bet to Micah on the Boilers....idiots) made it a bad day. Not Black Friday 2006 bad, but it was painful.
I didn't want to go to bed, so I made my first foray into 1-2 No-Limit poker. Got some good cards (and had one magnificent laydown of A-A) and ended up making $175 on the session. I've got a lot to learn, however...... need to be more aggressive and less afraid of losing my bankroll. Damn, I was shaking as I called the $40 bet to win my first pot, a king-high flush.
Sunday started quiet, as most everyone left; Kevin and I walked down to the Monte to pick up magic tricks for the boys. After everyone left, played BJ at Mirage (big loser) , walked to Bill's Hall between Bally's and Flamingo and played craps; about all alone at the table with a 22 year old kid who played the pass line (no odds) and the $5 hard 8. We were hot - and won a solid amount of money. I gave him a smile at the end and commented "nice roll, kid". I felt like Doc in Major League.
Then I walked by an empty $10 BJ table with a middle-eastern woman dealer - sound familiar? - and did well. This better not start a tradition , where I have to check the dealer's accent before I sit down and play at a table.
Back to the Mirage, won $200 at the Ultimate Hold Em table game - and then with 20 minutes left in the trip, took a couple of rolls at the $25 craps table. Not good - $150 gone in 90 seconds.
Oh well. Overall, about even for the trip gambling wise, mainly due to the spectacular sports start on Thursday. Even with the luggage not making my connection on Monday morning, it was a great trip. Hopefully we'll have more people staying on Sunday next year, huh? What the hell is wrong with a red eye flight?
As of this writing, it's Tennessee 79, Ohio St 79 - and I realize I did take Tennessee to the final 8. Go Vols!
Wed night:
Derek picks us up at the airport; I decide to take his car and go pick up Don at the airport so he can avoid the 45+ min taxi line. Get to the casino around 12; after walking around for a while getting my bearing, I decide to call it a night. First time ever that I did not gamble the first night. Good thing, since....
Thu morn:
I wake up in bed wide awake at 4:30. Get to the book at 5. Review the numbers and follow my strategy - only pick a few number of games and go big on those. After 2+ hours of deliberation (I felt like I was on a jury for a murder trial), I decide on:
Md -7
Marq/Mich St over 123.5
Ohio St/CCt St iver 126.5
Tx AM -13.5
VCU/Duke over 135.5
Tx AM/Penn under 135.5
Pitt/Wright St Under 120.5
Eastern Ky/NC Over 143.5
VCU +6
BYU +2.5
Louisville (-6) just missed my list.
Derek comes by - I told him I feel sick about these picks. I wanted to avoid any 1/16 games; here I am taking 2 of the overs in those games.
Get breakfast at McDonalds and meet Derek, Wiz, Micah and Dick at Caesar's. I bring my McDonald's bag over and Derek is shocked - SHOCKED! - that I only have one Sausage McMuffin in the bag. Hey there Derek, it's a new Eric. Two years ago, of course, there would have been 3 of those in the bag.
As Wiz has said, there was a lot of nervous moments in that game, compounded by seeing Louisville up 30 over a weak Stanford team. I pulled a Khruschev at one point, taking off my loafer and banging it on the bar at Caesar's.
But as the Terps started to break away, we broke out in celebration. I disticntly remember a free throw with about 1 min to play to put the Terps up 10; Micah was just about to do a strip tease on the bar; Derek and Wiz were hurting each other doing high-fives; and I was playing the coach, nervously pacing back and forth behind the bar, hoping the clock would tick faster than ever before. Dick then opens his mouth and says "Well, that about does it for the Terps, doesn't it?" We all shoot him an icy stare for that possible Gooch.
Golf that afternoon, as Wiz said, was forgettable; the most intense part of the round was 18, where there was a good deal of money on the match and I had a 2-tier putt from 45 feet for birdie; Don had a 60-footer from the fringe for birdie, and Wiz had a 7 footer for bogey/net par. While this was going on, my phone is going nuts as Derek is frantically trying to get a hold of us as the VCU/Duke game is ending.
Get back in time to watch BYU pull a great cover out of their ass - picking up a loose ball at the buzzer and laying it in to cut the deficit from 4 to 2. Final results for day 1 on the sports picks: 8-2. Not bad. I think I like this strategy.
Dinner, I thought, was good. Don picked a GREAT wine. Wow. Wow wow wow. Ended up touring Casino Royale a bit after dinner - Leland, if you like your gambling dark, that's your place. Ended up going to bed (and I heard I shouldn't, as Mike and Saran won a good deal of money at $15 craps that night at the Mirage).
Friday morning came early, with our early tee time. Got up at 5 to put the bets in; the deliberation only took 75 minutes. I only took 7 games to shoot the gun at - 7 games, that is, in the afternoon!God, I hate myself. And yes, RRD, I had Va -8.5.
What a great round of golf at Royal Links. This course was literally surrounded by trailer homes, so we had no idea what to expect. Outside the course, two other items made this round memorable:
1) We had the first tee time of the day. Absolutely perfect. I'd pay a premium to do this again. I know Kermit won't believe this, but I was in a foursome that played in under 4:15. We teed off at 7:40 and were back in the casino at 12:30.
2) Two words: breakfast burrito. Oh my - for $10, I had the best burrito ever. Filled with ham, bacon, potatoes, eggs, a bit of sausage, peppers and onions. And huge- huge! It took me 4 holes to eat it.
Went 4-3 in the morning, so I put 7 more bets for the afternoon. Went to Red Rock, because Derek had a lot of nice things to say about it - and he was right. You never felt crowded, and everyone who worked there was friendly. Had a great time and run at craps - except for Kevin, who decided not to join at the start; he then joined the table after we all won a significant amount of money - you can see this coming a mile away - and the table went cold.
Went 4-3 for the afternoon as well, so with the overall 15-8 with the big sports bets and a good run at craps, I was up - about $800! Decided to play $25 Pai Gow with Wiz, and that's when we met Morty. Fucking asshole. Typical New York guy with a big nose - do I have to tell you his religious preference - who was one of those "outgoing" know-it-alls. Not truly an asshole, but is friendly as he tells you exactly what you should do.
Lost $300 there, including the post-Morty $100 hand that Wiz convinced me to play. But I learned two things:
1) Whenever Wiz gets the Ace of Spades, he greets it with a "Hello, Bee!" salutation. I immediately picked that up and am taking it to poker and blackjack.
2) The Tom Collins at the Mirage gives you a veritable fruit salad in the drink! Orange, lime and cherry...... got my vitamin C for the weekend with 5 of those drinks.
Saturday morning brought a headache (hello, Motrin) and 7 big bet picks:
Mich St + 9.5
G'town -8.5
Tx AM -3
Maryland -5.5
UCLA -7
Vandy/Wash St under 128
VCU/Pitt over 13.5
Planned to go downtown to the Nugget. When we got up, Kevin, Mike and I were up for it.... Saran? Saran? It was 8:30 and no sign of Saran. He comes in about 8:45 - obviously up all night. There was no need to ask him if he wanted to go downtown. He was out in 35 seconds.
Before we leave, we discussed what we wanted to play; we all looked forward to playing craps together. Mike then blurts out "Great! I've never had a losing session playing craps!"
Uh oh.
We get dominated. It wasn't a killing, but a slow and steady erosion. I stopped after about 1 1/2 hours and started watching basketball (and Micah's sports injury). Had a blast playing $5 pai gow poolside for 4-6 hours. Strawberry Daiquiri's for everyone.
As you can see, the sports bets did not work out at all. 1-5-1 on Saturday. That, plus the craps losses and the Purdue Lady Boilers' loss (we took a collection and called a $275 bet to Micah on the Boilers....idiots) made it a bad day. Not Black Friday 2006 bad, but it was painful.
I didn't want to go to bed, so I made my first foray into 1-2 No-Limit poker. Got some good cards (and had one magnificent laydown of A-A) and ended up making $175 on the session. I've got a lot to learn, however...... need to be more aggressive and less afraid of losing my bankroll. Damn, I was shaking as I called the $40 bet to win my first pot, a king-high flush.
Sunday started quiet, as most everyone left; Kevin and I walked down to the Monte to pick up magic tricks for the boys. After everyone left, played BJ at Mirage (big loser) , walked to Bill's Hall between Bally's and Flamingo and played craps; about all alone at the table with a 22 year old kid who played the pass line (no odds) and the $5 hard 8. We were hot - and won a solid amount of money. I gave him a smile at the end and commented "nice roll, kid". I felt like Doc in Major League.
Then I walked by an empty $10 BJ table with a middle-eastern woman dealer - sound familiar? - and did well. This better not start a tradition , where I have to check the dealer's accent before I sit down and play at a table.
Back to the Mirage, won $200 at the Ultimate Hold Em table game - and then with 20 minutes left in the trip, took a couple of rolls at the $25 craps table. Not good - $150 gone in 90 seconds.
Oh well. Overall, about even for the trip gambling wise, mainly due to the spectacular sports start on Thursday. Even with the luggage not making my connection on Monday morning, it was a great trip. Hopefully we'll have more people staying on Sunday next year, huh? What the hell is wrong with a red eye flight?
As of this writing, it's Tennessee 79, Ohio St 79 - and I realize I did take Tennessee to the final 8. Go Vols!
Mar 21, 2007
Funny link
Manny Ramirez is a strange dude. Check this out
I love the pictures and everything, he even created his own username. Gotta love it.
Mar 20, 2007
Post Vegas
Thank you Wiz for that great post which basically sums up everything in a nice neat package. Good trip overall, but I think we were one heavy gambler shy this trip. Nothing bad about the guys on the trip, but we were probably one guy short. Maybe it was all of the stupid golf. Maybe it was all the poker. I don't know. Here are some of the missing comments on the trip.
My budget: Wow, it actually worked. While I was down for the trip, it wasn't that bad. Putting a daily cap on sportsbetting probably saved me several hundreds of dollars. I wanted to give you a detailed breakdown on the budget, but Carol ended up washing my book and now it is a pile of mush.
Rooms: Pretty crappy room at the Mirage. Very small bathroom and small beds. This brings me to my next point. Why do we all cramp 4 to a room? I'm assumming with the guys that went on this last trip, everyone's income is in the 6 figures. If so, then why do we do this to ourselves. I mean poor Micah was sleeping on a cot and I was sleeping with Don. Don't get me wrong, he was the perfect bed mate during the trip. Didn't snore, stayed on his side of the bed, and always had a funny story at night to put me back to sleep. I know, I know...it sounds very gay. That's why I left out the fact that he doesn't wear a shirt to bed. But still, I don't want to sleep in the same bed with another grown man.
Red Rock Casino- Went out there with Dick on Thursday and was amazed by how nice it was. Nice dealers, cocktail waitresses and pit bosses. Flat screens by the table games, and a very nice sportsbook. Plenty of decent resturants as well. We ended going back out there on Friday evening with Eric, Mike, and Kevin and rolled craps for close to 2 hours. I have never done that before. We started rolling at a $10 table at the start of the Texas game and didn't stop until a couple minutes left. The guy next to me bet the don't pass line the entire time and when it was his turn to roll, I asked him "Are you really going to bet against yourself?" He responded with "No, I'm betting with the dice" Ok then, I'll leave you alone from now on. First time for a couple of things at the craps table:
1. Actually had a purple chip in my chip stack.
2. On my end of the table the dealers had 6 stacks of chips- Yellow, Purple, Black, Green, Red, and Ones. I've never seen Yellow out as an option for the dealer to use. I had not one, but two guys chucking around blacks and purples on my end. Pretty crazy.
Blackjack- Just an enjoyable time playing $25 and $50 BJ and that got rid of all of the bad players. I only had one bad player and I just got up and left and then watched him melt. I will tell you that on Saturday night I wanted to stay out even later than I did, but I was falling asleep while playing 25 BJ. And I was trying out Wiz's press thing and was up to a $200, and I was having trouble keeping my eyes open. Do you know how bad that is?
Nuggett: With Pai Gow by the pool and the convention room large enough to hold everyone, the Nugget is a pretty cool place. I would stay here if they would import some Russian girls just to spruce up the place. Even by the pool I think we only saw one semi attractive girl. But we did see Godzilla which was nice.
Mesa Grille: Not good at all. The steak was OK, but just blah. We need to pick a new place. Also, I was extremely disappointed about not playing credit card roulette. Piss poor showing on Eric's friends part.
Guys that need to make the trip next year to make sure that it doesn't get too boring:
1. Jay D- Missing a little too many trips recently, but I know his heart is still with us. Needs to get out to Vegas next year. There really isn't a better guy to get drunk with and play any table games. 2. Lee- Part of the original group of hardcore gamblers with Jay D and I and was sorely missed. Might be the only guy worse than me at the sportsbook. 3. Ben- Roulette junkie that drinks way too much. Always a chance he could roll up to the room with either a smoking hot 40 year old married chick or a 12 year old boy. 4. Kermit-See Ben's comment and substitute Roulette with Slots, and 12 year old boy with hooker. Always has a place in my heart for introducing me to Bleu Cheese Olives. 5. Carol- Would want her to be there if it wasn't an all guys trip now. She is already telling me that she is in for next year. 6. Laura- Same thing. Both of these women would be an excellent addition to the group. 7. Robbie/Ghettor- These two are bad news but they are so much fun. Drunk 90% of the time and only like to gamble at the slum casinos. Once stole a magician's chest from the Plaza and couldn't cash in a winning ticket because they were caught on camera. Ended up dumping the chest back at the Plaza in the Valet line.
My budget: Wow, it actually worked. While I was down for the trip, it wasn't that bad. Putting a daily cap on sportsbetting probably saved me several hundreds of dollars. I wanted to give you a detailed breakdown on the budget, but Carol ended up washing my book and now it is a pile of mush.
Rooms: Pretty crappy room at the Mirage. Very small bathroom and small beds. This brings me to my next point. Why do we all cramp 4 to a room? I'm assumming with the guys that went on this last trip, everyone's income is in the 6 figures. If so, then why do we do this to ourselves. I mean poor Micah was sleeping on a cot and I was sleeping with Don. Don't get me wrong, he was the perfect bed mate during the trip. Didn't snore, stayed on his side of the bed, and always had a funny story at night to put me back to sleep. I know, I know...it sounds very gay. That's why I left out the fact that he doesn't wear a shirt to bed. But still, I don't want to sleep in the same bed with another grown man.
Red Rock Casino- Went out there with Dick on Thursday and was amazed by how nice it was. Nice dealers, cocktail waitresses and pit bosses. Flat screens by the table games, and a very nice sportsbook. Plenty of decent resturants as well. We ended going back out there on Friday evening with Eric, Mike, and Kevin and rolled craps for close to 2 hours. I have never done that before. We started rolling at a $10 table at the start of the Texas game and didn't stop until a couple minutes left. The guy next to me bet the don't pass line the entire time and when it was his turn to roll, I asked him "Are you really going to bet against yourself?" He responded with "No, I'm betting with the dice" Ok then, I'll leave you alone from now on. First time for a couple of things at the craps table:
1. Actually had a purple chip in my chip stack.
2. On my end of the table the dealers had 6 stacks of chips- Yellow, Purple, Black, Green, Red, and Ones. I've never seen Yellow out as an option for the dealer to use. I had not one, but two guys chucking around blacks and purples on my end. Pretty crazy.
Blackjack- Just an enjoyable time playing $25 and $50 BJ and that got rid of all of the bad players. I only had one bad player and I just got up and left and then watched him melt. I will tell you that on Saturday night I wanted to stay out even later than I did, but I was falling asleep while playing 25 BJ. And I was trying out Wiz's press thing and was up to a $200, and I was having trouble keeping my eyes open. Do you know how bad that is?
Nuggett: With Pai Gow by the pool and the convention room large enough to hold everyone, the Nugget is a pretty cool place. I would stay here if they would import some Russian girls just to spruce up the place. Even by the pool I think we only saw one semi attractive girl. But we did see Godzilla which was nice.
Mesa Grille: Not good at all. The steak was OK, but just blah. We need to pick a new place. Also, I was extremely disappointed about not playing credit card roulette. Piss poor showing on Eric's friends part.
Guys that need to make the trip next year to make sure that it doesn't get too boring:
1. Jay D- Missing a little too many trips recently, but I know his heart is still with us. Needs to get out to Vegas next year. There really isn't a better guy to get drunk with and play any table games. 2. Lee- Part of the original group of hardcore gamblers with Jay D and I and was sorely missed. Might be the only guy worse than me at the sportsbook. 3. Ben- Roulette junkie that drinks way too much. Always a chance he could roll up to the room with either a smoking hot 40 year old married chick or a 12 year old boy. 4. Kermit-See Ben's comment and substitute Roulette with Slots, and 12 year old boy with hooker. Always has a place in my heart for introducing me to Bleu Cheese Olives. 5. Carol- Would want her to be there if it wasn't an all guys trip now. She is already telling me that she is in for next year. 6. Laura- Same thing. Both of these women would be an excellent addition to the group. 7. Robbie/Ghettor- These two are bad news but they are so much fun. Drunk 90% of the time and only like to gamble at the slum casinos. Once stole a magician's chest from the Plaza and couldn't cash in a winning ticket because they were caught on camera. Ended up dumping the chest back at the Plaza in the Valet line.
Mar 19, 2007
One quick story
First, thanks to Wiz for a wonderful (first) recap of the events this weekend. My side of the story will becoming out in a couple of days (after I dig out from the work hole I am in).
Now, did you all see this news story?
A fist fight between two NFL players broke out in the Palms casino on Sunday night, sources said. Joey Porter, an All-Pro linebacker who recently left the Pittsburgh Steelers to join the Miami Dolphins, brawled with Cincinnati Bengals offensive lineman Levi Jones, at about 6 p.m. at a blackjack table in the casino. Jones, who suffered scratches, told Las Vegas police he would be filing charges against Porter. Sources said there has been bad blood between the two.
Gees, substitute "Leland's future brother-in-law" for Jones and "Derek" for Porter, and you see what could have happened if people stay on 16 when facing a dealer's 10....
Now, did you all see this news story?
A fist fight between two NFL players broke out in the Palms casino on Sunday night, sources said. Joey Porter, an All-Pro linebacker who recently left the Pittsburgh Steelers to join the Miami Dolphins, brawled with Cincinnati Bengals offensive lineman Levi Jones, at about 6 p.m. at a blackjack table in the casino. Jones, who suffered scratches, told Las Vegas police he would be filing charges against Porter. Sources said there has been bad blood between the two.
Gees, substitute "Leland's future brother-in-law" for Jones and "Derek" for Porter, and you see what could have happened if people stay on 16 when facing a dealer's 10....
A Tradition Unlike Any Other....
Hello friends, before we get to today's Vegas recap let me bring in my good friend and colleague Lanny Watkins.
Vegas 2007
All in all another successful trip. I think the mix of old cagey veterans (Derek, Eric, Don, Micah, Wiz) with a couple rookies (Mike, Kevin, Saran) made the weekend a great time for everyone. Leland was missed and everyone is looking for a triumphant return in 2008.
I will post my highlights by day trying to remember the highlights. Let me know if I missed anything. This is just my account so I'm sure I missed a ton of stuff.
Wednesday Night
Arrive at Mirage around 11pm thanks to Derek picking Eric, Micah, and myself up and avoiding the three hour cab line.
Throw bags in room, head straight to tables. Derek and Micah play pai gow and I watch hoping a position opens. However, after standing for 10 minutes and watching other people gamble, I can't take it anymore and need some action. I tell the guys I'm going to "tour" the casino but stumble across an open $50 BJ table. Bottom line, after 10 minutes, down $1K. I walk back to the pai gow table and tell the guys what happened then proceed to a $100 BJ table. Bottom line, after 15 minutes down another $1K. So after approximately 30 minutes in the Mirage I'm already out 40% of my stash for the weekend. Talk about an uphill climb, I felt like the mountain climber from the famous Price is Right game Cliffhanger about to go over the edge. Biggest kick in the nuts was when I played a $400 hand of BJ got dealt 10 to the dealer's six up card. I doubled down and got a face card for 20. Dealer turns over a 10 for 16 and I'm feeling pretty good until the dreaded five comes out. Ouch! Off to bed, Thursday has to be better.
Thursday
Maybe it was a dream? Could last night have been that bad? This is what I thought when I woke up on Thursday morning. After checking my bankroll and realizing it was not a dream, I'm excited about playing golf today and getting away from the casino for awhile. Micah and I head down to the world famous Mirage buffet where we stuff ourselves from anything to cottage cheese to sausage gravy to chocolate croissants. After breakfast we all put our bets in on Thursday's college games. I loved the Terps and so did everybody else in our group. Derek heads over to Caesars Palace to meet Dick (work friend) so all of us decide to join him to watch the Terps game. This was a great time since everybody had some sort of action on the Terps so we were in unison rooting for them. (Side note: CP sucks, long lines to bet on games + $7 Coronas) MD doesn't score for the first 4:30 of the second half and are down nine. Everybody is laying 7.5 so its not looking good. MD storms back and somehow covers, we were dancing around CP like little kids. (Another side note: Derek was playing video poker but Eric and myself somehow took over the machine from him, while playing with his money we decided to play the "double down" bet which means you have a chance to double your winnings if you pick a card higher than the dealers. We hit a straight and decide to go for the "double down" bet. Dealer's card is a King, we are dejected. Somehow Eric picks the Ace and again we celebrate like we won a million dollars when in reality it was $2.25)
Leave CP and head out to play golf with Don, Eric, Mike (great addition to the weekend) and myself. Play Bear's Best a new course which was very average. Don and I take on Eric and Mike. Don and I destroy these clowns on the front and are laughing about how easy this is going to be when all of a sudden these guys (Mike played great, Eric drove the cart great) turn their games on and killed us on the back. We lose $5 a piece.
After golf, we head back to the Mirage to get cleaned up and watch the remainder of the games. Overall a great day of sports betting for me since MD won and Vandy won. My only two bets of the day. (Side note: Gus Johnson should call every game in the tournament, his call in the OSU game was legendary) Dinner is at Meas Grill in CP. We have eaten there many times and I'm excited since I know Don is paying for dinner since he will lose credit card roulette. Dinner is fantastic and the conversation revolves around tomorrow's games and the pending ladies games to start on Saturday. I tell the table that my lock of the weekend is the Lady Huskies laying 48 to the Lady Retrievers of UMBC. UMBC went 16-16 overall and only 6-10 in their conference. Could be a bloodbath. I also overheard this conversation take place at the table as well.
Eric: "Derek, what do you know about the UC Riverside ladies team?"
Derek (without hesitation): "Great rebounding team"
Gotta love this trip.
After dinner (oh yeah, one sour note, is that we didn't play CC roulette after dinner, Derek seemed the most upset as he stormed off) we head back to the Mirage for some late night pai gow with John. John asks me where my buddy is (referring to Leland). I tell him he couldn't make it this year and John is actually upset/concerned almost like a father. Very heartwarming!
Make some cash playing pai gow and called it a night since we have a 7:40 tee time tomorrow.
Friday
Alarm goes off at 6:30, ouch! Stumble over to Royal Links with Eric driving directly looking into the sun the whole way. It was like entering the abyss. Royal Links, wasn't expecting much but was completely wrong. Great course, great service, would absolutely play it again. Same teams as Thursday and today Don brought his "A" game. Four or five birdies later and those chumps were paying up. Thank god for pagers/Blackberry's. We could keep track of every game and every play actually throughout the day.
Head back to the Mirage. Derek decides to go over to Red Rock with Eric and Mike. I decide I need to relax so I go to the pool and schedule a massage for 5pm. Pool scene: A+ I've never seen such a show. Thongs, 20 year old's, you name it, it was there. I tried to get into Bare, the Mirage's new topless, excuse me, "European Bathing" pool and bar. I tried to walk right through but the bouncer stopped me and we had this conversation.
Bouncer: "Excuse me sir, are you on the list?"
Me: "Um yeah"
Bouncer: "Under what name sir?"
Me: "I'm with the Leland Owens party."
Bouncer: "I don't see him on the list."
Me: "Oh I'm sure he is there, big time here."
Bouncer: "Sir, I don't see him"
Me: "Oh maybe he decided not to come"
After the pool went to the spa about an hour before my massage. Great place to hangout. They have a great set up with a huge TV with all the games, beverage service and snacks. Massage was ok, my masseuse was not attractive and my massage did not have a happy ending, except that when I was done I found out Texas covered.
Friday night everybody did their own thing. Micah and I went over to Chipolte for dinner then ended up playing poker. I played for about three hours, losing six dollars, then decided to go see John. Eric met up with me and we played pai gow for another three hours. Great time, Eric and I were playing with this asshole who we dubbed Morty/Shlomo/Irving, just a real ass that every time he opened his mouth we hated him more. John and I relived some good Vegas stories such as when this chick playing pai gow told us her profession was to jerk horses off. Only in Vegas. I did get Eric to play a $100 hand of pai gow which he was promptly dealt pai gow and mumbled something along the lines of, "Wiz, now I know why you are Derek can't be alone together!" Eric decided to go to bed and I was going to as well but on my way upstairs I heard a hot craps table with a semi-hot chick rolling. The problem was that it was a $25 craps table. Oh well, I put $50 on the pass and backed it with max odds, $250. Didn't play anything else. Point is eight, first roll......SEVEN. OK bad luck, same thing, different roller, point is nine. First roll, eight, second roll....SEVEN. After blowing $1K, I wish I would have gone up with Eric.
Saturday
Best day of the trip. We all decided to take a trip downtown for the games. Derek was doing his roto baseball draft so he would join us later. Jump in a cab around 10ish and head to the Golden Nugget. I was very surprised! They took two conference rooms and turned them into mini-sports books for the tournament. Great idea. They had bars and food and even a teller to take bets. Mirage should do something like this. After watching MD lose (which I had $1,500 on them with the money line) and Micah break his toe after he kicked a chair, we headed downstairs to play some $5 craps. What can happen at a $5 craps table? Well we all got smoked. Somehow I blew through three or four hundred playing five dollar craps. Watched the end of the OSU/Xavier game with an incredible Gus Johnson call that Derek said the roars could be heard all the way up in our room from the sports book.
Then we decided to play some poolside pai gow, yes poolside. Great idea by the Nugget. $5 pai gow at the pool! We took over the whole table and played for approximately 6 hours. It got hot as shit at one point when the sun was on us and Derek was playing in a wife beater. One of the dealers, from Poland, was smokin hot! We each drank about 10-15 strawberry daiquiris (w/vodka, not rum) and either were somewhat drunk or all had sugar highs. Great scene, with some hot chicks, great music and pai gow what more do you want in life? We actually got reprimanded a couple of times for yelling too loud. How is this possible at a pool? Oh yeah, the best part about the pai gow was the community dragon where everybody can play the dragon hand. Great idea! Another twist the Mirage should use. Around 8ish we decide to grab some dinner at the Noodle House. Great meal. Over dinner we discuss our pending bet with the Lady Boilermakers that is about to tip off. We have $275 between the five of us on the Lady Boilermakers -28.5 due to a tip that Don had. Well they didn't cover. Fuck Don! Fuck his Purdue teams! We wander over to Binon's and again play some $5 craps. What a scene. One dealer looks like he is homeless, the other dealer weights 500lbs. I almost threw up. Again we all got smoked. The only time we made any money was when Derek and I played the don't pass whenever I rolled. Derek started celebrating when I rolled a seven and I thought we might get shot. Good times. Bottom line: downtown trip cost us all over $1K.
Head back to the Mirage around 10ish. I want to go to bed since I have an early flight but Derek convinces (wasn't hard) me to go play some $50 BJ. Roy, a lanky man, was our dealer. He made fun of Derek and I as we continuously yelled we want back door action. Fuck him! Well finally the trip turned positive as I got on a ridiculous run and won 14 hands in a row. Derek, well he struggled at first, but came on strong at the end. I could see the wheels turning in his head as my chip count grew and he was grinding it out. Mentally he was thinking what the fuck is going on here. I walked away turning $350 into $2,100. Not bad, but after the hole I dug it only made a dent. After I cashed out Derek then got on a ridiculous run and destroyed Roy. Good times, great dealer. He mentioned that I should have been pressing my bets more and that by the end of that run I should have been playing $10K hands. I would have been throwing up. Derek said he would have to leave the table if I played $10K hands.
The good thing about the Mirage is this new Revolutions nightclub which is themed after the Beatles. Well they have these hot chicks that dance outside the club trying to get people to come in. As Derek and I played BJ with Eric watching we wondered how much money it would take for Eric to go dance with these chicks. Bottom line, he wouldn't do it but that thought sticks with me and a laugh every time I think about that. After we get done playing BJ, we head up to the room. Derek is halfway in bed and all of a sudden gets up and just blurts out, "I have to go back downstairs and play more BJ!" and rolls out.
Sunday
Early flight but the lines at McCarran weren't bad at all. My flight is delayed about 30 minutes so I drop $150 on the Wheel with only getting one fucking spin! That summed up my trip right there.
Conclusion
Unbelievable time. Can't wait till next year and the return of Mr. Owens. Just hope he keeps his reservation at Bare this time! March 19-23, 2008!!!!!!!!!!!
Vegas 2007
All in all another successful trip. I think the mix of old cagey veterans (Derek, Eric, Don, Micah, Wiz) with a couple rookies (Mike, Kevin, Saran) made the weekend a great time for everyone. Leland was missed and everyone is looking for a triumphant return in 2008.
I will post my highlights by day trying to remember the highlights. Let me know if I missed anything. This is just my account so I'm sure I missed a ton of stuff.
Wednesday Night
Arrive at Mirage around 11pm thanks to Derek picking Eric, Micah, and myself up and avoiding the three hour cab line.
Throw bags in room, head straight to tables. Derek and Micah play pai gow and I watch hoping a position opens. However, after standing for 10 minutes and watching other people gamble, I can't take it anymore and need some action. I tell the guys I'm going to "tour" the casino but stumble across an open $50 BJ table. Bottom line, after 10 minutes, down $1K. I walk back to the pai gow table and tell the guys what happened then proceed to a $100 BJ table. Bottom line, after 15 minutes down another $1K. So after approximately 30 minutes in the Mirage I'm already out 40% of my stash for the weekend. Talk about an uphill climb, I felt like the mountain climber from the famous Price is Right game Cliffhanger about to go over the edge. Biggest kick in the nuts was when I played a $400 hand of BJ got dealt 10 to the dealer's six up card. I doubled down and got a face card for 20. Dealer turns over a 10 for 16 and I'm feeling pretty good until the dreaded five comes out. Ouch! Off to bed, Thursday has to be better.
Thursday
Maybe it was a dream? Could last night have been that bad? This is what I thought when I woke up on Thursday morning. After checking my bankroll and realizing it was not a dream, I'm excited about playing golf today and getting away from the casino for awhile. Micah and I head down to the world famous Mirage buffet where we stuff ourselves from anything to cottage cheese to sausage gravy to chocolate croissants. After breakfast we all put our bets in on Thursday's college games. I loved the Terps and so did everybody else in our group. Derek heads over to Caesars Palace to meet Dick (work friend) so all of us decide to join him to watch the Terps game. This was a great time since everybody had some sort of action on the Terps so we were in unison rooting for them. (Side note: CP sucks, long lines to bet on games + $7 Coronas) MD doesn't score for the first 4:30 of the second half and are down nine. Everybody is laying 7.5 so its not looking good. MD storms back and somehow covers, we were dancing around CP like little kids. (Another side note: Derek was playing video poker but Eric and myself somehow took over the machine from him, while playing with his money we decided to play the "double down" bet which means you have a chance to double your winnings if you pick a card higher than the dealers. We hit a straight and decide to go for the "double down" bet. Dealer's card is a King, we are dejected. Somehow Eric picks the Ace and again we celebrate like we won a million dollars when in reality it was $2.25)
Leave CP and head out to play golf with Don, Eric, Mike (great addition to the weekend) and myself. Play Bear's Best a new course which was very average. Don and I take on Eric and Mike. Don and I destroy these clowns on the front and are laughing about how easy this is going to be when all of a sudden these guys (Mike played great, Eric drove the cart great) turn their games on and killed us on the back. We lose $5 a piece.
After golf, we head back to the Mirage to get cleaned up and watch the remainder of the games. Overall a great day of sports betting for me since MD won and Vandy won. My only two bets of the day. (Side note: Gus Johnson should call every game in the tournament, his call in the OSU game was legendary) Dinner is at Meas Grill in CP. We have eaten there many times and I'm excited since I know Don is paying for dinner since he will lose credit card roulette. Dinner is fantastic and the conversation revolves around tomorrow's games and the pending ladies games to start on Saturday. I tell the table that my lock of the weekend is the Lady Huskies laying 48 to the Lady Retrievers of UMBC. UMBC went 16-16 overall and only 6-10 in their conference. Could be a bloodbath. I also overheard this conversation take place at the table as well.
Eric: "Derek, what do you know about the UC Riverside ladies team?"
Derek (without hesitation): "Great rebounding team"
Gotta love this trip.
After dinner (oh yeah, one sour note, is that we didn't play CC roulette after dinner, Derek seemed the most upset as he stormed off) we head back to the Mirage for some late night pai gow with John. John asks me where my buddy is (referring to Leland). I tell him he couldn't make it this year and John is actually upset/concerned almost like a father. Very heartwarming!
Make some cash playing pai gow and called it a night since we have a 7:40 tee time tomorrow.
Friday
Alarm goes off at 6:30, ouch! Stumble over to Royal Links with Eric driving directly looking into the sun the whole way. It was like entering the abyss. Royal Links, wasn't expecting much but was completely wrong. Great course, great service, would absolutely play it again. Same teams as Thursday and today Don brought his "A" game. Four or five birdies later and those chumps were paying up. Thank god for pagers/Blackberry's. We could keep track of every game and every play actually throughout the day.
Head back to the Mirage. Derek decides to go over to Red Rock with Eric and Mike. I decide I need to relax so I go to the pool and schedule a massage for 5pm. Pool scene: A+ I've never seen such a show. Thongs, 20 year old's, you name it, it was there. I tried to get into Bare, the Mirage's new topless, excuse me, "European Bathing" pool and bar. I tried to walk right through but the bouncer stopped me and we had this conversation.
Bouncer: "Excuse me sir, are you on the list?"
Me: "Um yeah"
Bouncer: "Under what name sir?"
Me: "I'm with the Leland Owens party."
Bouncer: "I don't see him on the list."
Me: "Oh I'm sure he is there, big time here."
Bouncer: "Sir, I don't see him"
Me: "Oh maybe he decided not to come"
After the pool went to the spa about an hour before my massage. Great place to hangout. They have a great set up with a huge TV with all the games, beverage service and snacks. Massage was ok, my masseuse was not attractive and my massage did not have a happy ending, except that when I was done I found out Texas covered.
Friday night everybody did their own thing. Micah and I went over to Chipolte for dinner then ended up playing poker. I played for about three hours, losing six dollars, then decided to go see John. Eric met up with me and we played pai gow for another three hours. Great time, Eric and I were playing with this asshole who we dubbed Morty/Shlomo/Irving, just a real ass that every time he opened his mouth we hated him more. John and I relived some good Vegas stories such as when this chick playing pai gow told us her profession was to jerk horses off. Only in Vegas. I did get Eric to play a $100 hand of pai gow which he was promptly dealt pai gow and mumbled something along the lines of, "Wiz, now I know why you are Derek can't be alone together!" Eric decided to go to bed and I was going to as well but on my way upstairs I heard a hot craps table with a semi-hot chick rolling. The problem was that it was a $25 craps table. Oh well, I put $50 on the pass and backed it with max odds, $250. Didn't play anything else. Point is eight, first roll......SEVEN. OK bad luck, same thing, different roller, point is nine. First roll, eight, second roll....SEVEN. After blowing $1K, I wish I would have gone up with Eric.
Saturday
Best day of the trip. We all decided to take a trip downtown for the games. Derek was doing his roto baseball draft so he would join us later. Jump in a cab around 10ish and head to the Golden Nugget. I was very surprised! They took two conference rooms and turned them into mini-sports books for the tournament. Great idea. They had bars and food and even a teller to take bets. Mirage should do something like this. After watching MD lose (which I had $1,500 on them with the money line) and Micah break his toe after he kicked a chair, we headed downstairs to play some $5 craps. What can happen at a $5 craps table? Well we all got smoked. Somehow I blew through three or four hundred playing five dollar craps. Watched the end of the OSU/Xavier game with an incredible Gus Johnson call that Derek said the roars could be heard all the way up in our room from the sports book.
Then we decided to play some poolside pai gow, yes poolside. Great idea by the Nugget. $5 pai gow at the pool! We took over the whole table and played for approximately 6 hours. It got hot as shit at one point when the sun was on us and Derek was playing in a wife beater. One of the dealers, from Poland, was smokin hot! We each drank about 10-15 strawberry daiquiris (w/vodka, not rum) and either were somewhat drunk or all had sugar highs. Great scene, with some hot chicks, great music and pai gow what more do you want in life? We actually got reprimanded a couple of times for yelling too loud. How is this possible at a pool? Oh yeah, the best part about the pai gow was the community dragon where everybody can play the dragon hand. Great idea! Another twist the Mirage should use. Around 8ish we decide to grab some dinner at the Noodle House. Great meal. Over dinner we discuss our pending bet with the Lady Boilermakers that is about to tip off. We have $275 between the five of us on the Lady Boilermakers -28.5 due to a tip that Don had. Well they didn't cover. Fuck Don! Fuck his Purdue teams! We wander over to Binon's and again play some $5 craps. What a scene. One dealer looks like he is homeless, the other dealer weights 500lbs. I almost threw up. Again we all got smoked. The only time we made any money was when Derek and I played the don't pass whenever I rolled. Derek started celebrating when I rolled a seven and I thought we might get shot. Good times. Bottom line: downtown trip cost us all over $1K.
Head back to the Mirage around 10ish. I want to go to bed since I have an early flight but Derek convinces (wasn't hard) me to go play some $50 BJ. Roy, a lanky man, was our dealer. He made fun of Derek and I as we continuously yelled we want back door action. Fuck him! Well finally the trip turned positive as I got on a ridiculous run and won 14 hands in a row. Derek, well he struggled at first, but came on strong at the end. I could see the wheels turning in his head as my chip count grew and he was grinding it out. Mentally he was thinking what the fuck is going on here. I walked away turning $350 into $2,100. Not bad, but after the hole I dug it only made a dent. After I cashed out Derek then got on a ridiculous run and destroyed Roy. Good times, great dealer. He mentioned that I should have been pressing my bets more and that by the end of that run I should have been playing $10K hands. I would have been throwing up. Derek said he would have to leave the table if I played $10K hands.
The good thing about the Mirage is this new Revolutions nightclub which is themed after the Beatles. Well they have these hot chicks that dance outside the club trying to get people to come in. As Derek and I played BJ with Eric watching we wondered how much money it would take for Eric to go dance with these chicks. Bottom line, he wouldn't do it but that thought sticks with me and a laugh every time I think about that. After we get done playing BJ, we head up to the room. Derek is halfway in bed and all of a sudden gets up and just blurts out, "I have to go back downstairs and play more BJ!" and rolls out.
Sunday
Early flight but the lines at McCarran weren't bad at all. My flight is delayed about 30 minutes so I drop $150 on the Wheel with only getting one fucking spin! That summed up my trip right there.
Conclusion
Unbelievable time. Can't wait till next year and the return of Mr. Owens. Just hope he keeps his reservation at Bare this time! March 19-23, 2008!!!!!!!!!!!
Vegas
I'm so tired this morning that I poored my coffee creamer into my water and drank it thinking it was my coffee. And this was after I almost fell asleep on the way to work this morning in the car. Has this ever happened to anyone before? Its the worst feeling. Ugh. What a weekend though despite the Terps sucking major ass. I'll put up a post later on today.
Mar 14, 2007
Vegas #3
Words I don't want to hear over the next 5 days:
- Clobbered
- Slaughtered
- Nightmare
- Ass Raped
- "And the last credit card is Derek's"
- "Hookers? What Hookers"
- Black Friday
- "Fuck Jay and the Celtics"
- "We got $1000 on Black"
- "Your staying on 14 again?"
- "Thanks for the generous tiping last night Mr. Zahn"
- "Purdue is a layup"
Words I want to hear over the next 5 days:
- Backdoor Action
- Layup
- Double Layup
- "Do you want me to place your 5 team reverse parlay for you while I'm up there Wiz?"
- "And the last credit card is Don's"
- TAMCC advances to the second round
Mar 13, 2007
Statistical predictions for 1st round games
From the stats at kenpom.com, which gets a stat value for:
offensive efficiency: points per 100 possessions;
def eff: points given up per 100 possessions, and
temp: avg # of possessions a game.
Combining the two values for each opponent and you can get a prediction of an exact score. This can be helpful for over/unders, but I warn you it does not approx well with two teams that are slow (see Miami/Akron, Sat, 3/9. The o/v was a low 113; the stats said 121; I took the over, it came in at 106. )
Fla 92 Jackson St 55
Purdue 71.2 Az 71.0
Butler 68 ODU 63
Md 79 Davidson 67
ND 79 Winthrop 67
Oregon 70 Miami 60
GT 73 UNLV 67
Wisconsin 80 (!!) TxAMCC 61
Kansas 86 Niagara 58
Kentucky 68.8 Villanova 68.7
Illinois 60.7 Va Tech 60.6 (!)
Southern IL 62 Holy Cross 54
Duke 74 VCU 63
Pitt 70 Wright St 58
Ind 75 Gonzaga 70
UCLA 78 Weber 56
NC 84 Eastern Ky 55
Michigan St 66 Marq 64
Ark 67 USC 66 (!)
Tex 82 NM St 69
Vandy 72 GW 67
Wash St 68 ORU 60
BC 73 Tex Tech 69
Gtown 77 Belmont 57
Ohio St 81 Cent CT 56
X 77 BYU 74
Tennessee 86 LB St 72
Virginia 77 Albany 64
Louisville 69 Stanford 63
Tx AM 79 Penn 61
Creighton 73 Nevada 69 (!)
Memphis 82 North Texas 59
Hmmm... I'll study this on the plane....
offensive efficiency: points per 100 possessions;
def eff: points given up per 100 possessions, and
temp: avg # of possessions a game.
Combining the two values for each opponent and you can get a prediction of an exact score. This can be helpful for over/unders, but I warn you it does not approx well with two teams that are slow (see Miami/Akron, Sat, 3/9. The o/v was a low 113; the stats said 121; I took the over, it came in at 106. )
Fla 92 Jackson St 55
Purdue 71.2 Az 71.0
Butler 68 ODU 63
Md 79 Davidson 67
ND 79 Winthrop 67
Oregon 70 Miami 60
GT 73 UNLV 67
Wisconsin 80 (!!) TxAMCC 61
Kansas 86 Niagara 58
Kentucky 68.8 Villanova 68.7
Illinois 60.7 Va Tech 60.6 (!)
Southern IL 62 Holy Cross 54
Duke 74 VCU 63
Pitt 70 Wright St 58
Ind 75 Gonzaga 70
UCLA 78 Weber 56
NC 84 Eastern Ky 55
Michigan St 66 Marq 64
Ark 67 USC 66 (!)
Tex 82 NM St 69
Vandy 72 GW 67
Wash St 68 ORU 60
BC 73 Tex Tech 69
Gtown 77 Belmont 57
Ohio St 81 Cent CT 56
X 77 BYU 74
Tennessee 86 LB St 72
Virginia 77 Albany 64
Louisville 69 Stanford 63
Tx AM 79 Penn 61
Creighton 73 Nevada 69 (!)
Memphis 82 North Texas 59
Hmmm... I'll study this on the plane....
NBA picks
DAMN!!!!!!!! Do I wish I was going out there!! Good luck to everyone out there. I was asked to put some NBA picks together, and here is my usual flow chart. Its always fun to be the one guy during tournament time that is checking out NBA scores.
Below is the flow chart (look way down the page - this site width can't handle the table I am trying to produce). I really wanted to upload a PDF I have of this file, but it doesn't look like I can upload PDFs. I could save it as an image, but I didn't think the resolution would be good enough for you to read on the site. If anybody wants this as an attachment, I'll email it to them. Anyway, here are my leans based on a "play on the schedule". I would tease a few of these games together to give me some wiggle room with the line:
3-14 CLE @ MEM (pick MEM) (CLE 4 games in 5 days)
3-14 WAS @ IND (pick WAS) (IND 4 in 5)
3-16 BOS @ DAL (pick BOS) - sandwich game for DAL (right after PHO, right before DET obviously tread lightly here since it IS boston, but MIGHT be worth a play)
3-16 GSW @ MIN (Pick MIN) - letdown for gsw after breaking their streak)
3-17 BOS @ SAS (pick SAS) (BOS 4 in 5 and they have NEVER beat Duncan...EVER)
3-17 UTH @ CLE (pick CLE) (UTH 4 in 5)
3-17 SAC @ ORL (pick ORL) (SAC 4 in 5 and just plain sucks)
3-18 DAL @ DET (pick DAL) (DET first game back from LOOOOONG road trip, there is risk here since I'm sure they'll be focused to play the best team in the NBA. But if DAL seems to get their focus back in the leading games, they can beat DET - esp a jet lagged DET)
Below is the flow chart (look way down the page - this site width can't handle the table I am trying to produce). I really wanted to upload a PDF I have of this file, but it doesn't look like I can upload PDFs. I could save it as an image, but I didn't think the resolution would be good enough for you to read on the site. If anybody wants this as an attachment, I'll email it to them. Anyway, here are my leans based on a "play on the schedule". I would tease a few of these games together to give me some wiggle room with the line:
3-14 CLE @ MEM (pick MEM) (CLE 4 games in 5 days)
3-14 WAS @ IND (pick WAS) (IND 4 in 5)
3-16 BOS @ DAL (pick BOS) - sandwich game for DAL (right after PHO, right before DET obviously tread lightly here since it IS boston, but MIGHT be worth a play)
3-16 GSW @ MIN (Pick MIN) - letdown for gsw after breaking their streak)
3-17 BOS @ SAS (pick SAS) (BOS 4 in 5 and they have NEVER beat Duncan...EVER)
3-17 UTH @ CLE (pick CLE) (UTH 4 in 5)
3-17 SAC @ ORL (pick ORL) (SAC 4 in 5 and just plain sucks)
3-18 DAL @ DET (pick DAL) (DET first game back from LOOOOONG road trip, there is risk here since I'm sure they'll be focused to play the best team in the NBA. But if DAL seems to get their focus back in the leading games, they can beat DET - esp a jet lagged DET)
| Team | 03-10(Sat) | 03-11(Sun) | 03-12(Mon) | 03-13(Tues) | 03-14(Wed) | 03-15(Thur) | 03-16(Fri) | 03-17(Sat) | 03-18(Sun) |
| ATL | MIN @ ATL | PHI @ ATL | ATL @ BOS | ATL @ IND | |||||
| BOS | CHI @ BOS | BOS @ CHI | ATL @ BOS | BOS @ DAL | BOS @ SAS | ||||
| CHA | MEM @ CHA | ORL @ CHA | SAC @ CHA | LAC @ CHA | CHA @ MIL | ||||
| CHI | CHI @ BOS | BOS @ CHI | CHI @ PHI | CHI @ MEM | |||||
| CLE | CLE @ MIL | IND @ CLE | SAC @ CLE | CLE @ MEM | UTH @ CLE | ||||
| DAL | DAL @ LAL | DAL @ GSW | PHO @ DAL | BOS @ DAL | DAL @ DET | ||||
| DEN | DEN @ SAC | POR @ DEN | LAL @ DEN | PHO @ DEN | |||||
| DET | DET @ SEA | DET @ POR | DET @ PHO | DAL @ DET | |||||
| GSW | GSW @ POR | DAL @ GSW | MIN @ GSW | GSW @ SEA | |||||
| HOU | ORL @ HOU | HOU @ PHO | LAC @ HOU | HOU @ TOR | HOU @ PHI | ||||
| IND | PHI @ IND | IND @ CLE | IND @ MIN | WAS @ IND | ATL @ IND | ||||
| LAC | LAC @ SAS | LAC @ HOU | LAC @ CHA | LAC @ NJN | |||||
| LAL | DAL @ LAL | LAL @ DEN | POR @ LAL | MIN @ LAL | |||||
| MEM | MEM @ CHA | NJN @ MEM | CLE @ MEM | CHI @ MEM | |||||
| MIA | WAS @ MIA | UTH @ MIA | MIA @ NJN | SAC @ MIA | ORL @ MIA | ||||
| MIL | CLE @ MIL | TOR @ MIL | SAS @ MIL | CHA @ MIL | |||||
| MIN | MIN @ ATL | IND @ MIN | MIN @ GSW | MIN @ LAL | |||||
| NJN | NJN @ SAS | NJN @ MEM | NJN @ NOK | MIA @ NJN | LAC @ NJN | ||||
| NOK | NOK @ UTH | NJN @ NOK | NOK @ NYK | NOK @ WAS | |||||
| NYK | NYK @ WAS | NYK @ TOR | NOK @ NYK | TOR @ NYK | |||||
| ORL | ORL @ HOU | ORL @ CHA | UTH @ ORL | SAC @ ORL | ORL @ MIA | ||||
| PHI | PHI @ IND | PHI @ ATL | CHI @ PHI | UTH @ PHI | HOU @ PHI | ||||
| PHO | HOU @ PHO | PHO @ DAL | DET @ PHO | PHO @ DEN | |||||
| POR | GSW @ POR | POR @ DEN | DET @ POR | POR @ LAL | SEA @ POR | ||||
| SAC | DEN @ SAC | SAC @ CLE | SAC @ CHA | SAC @ MIA | SAC @ ORL | ||||
| SAS | NJN @ SAS | LAC @ SAS | SAS @ MIL | BOS @ SAS | |||||
| SEA | SEA @ TOR | DET @ SEA | GSW @ SEA | SEA @ POR | |||||
| TOR | SEA @ TOR | TOR @ MIL | NYK @ TOR | HOU @ TOR | TOR @ NYK | ||||
| UTH | NOK @ UTH | UTH @ MIA | UTH @ ORL | UTH @ PHI | UTH @ CLE | ||||
| WAS | NYK @ WAS | WAS @ MIA | WAS @ IND | NOK @ WAS |
Vegas Post #2
OK, after hearing from most of you, I was a little shocked on the feedback. I guess many of you don't really know me. I have zero self control and I usually end up getting killed out in Vegas. Why is this a shock to some of you. My biggest problem during each of my trips seem to be that I get crushed in one game and all of the other games subsides this one bad game. For example, I might do well in BJ, Craps, and the Sportsbook, but I will get absolutely hammered in Roulette. So for the rest of the trip, I will try and just get one good run in Roulette that sometimes never happens. When looking back at it I dumped maybe $1k to $2k into this stupid game. This happened to me with BJ and the Sportsbook in November, Craps last year, and Roulette whenever Ben and I went out there in 2006. So the overall purpose of having a budget for each game is that I need to have a shut off valve on each game to stop the bleeding. Let's see if this works.
Budget:
Sportsbook: 600
BJ: 700
Craps: 600
Poker: 300
Pai Gow: 300
Video Poker: 200
Total: 2,700
I also created a "Jay D I'm reloading fund" of $500 to make a midnight craps run at the Monte Carlo/New York New York. I have also created a $100 "Leland Women's College Hoops Midnight Layup Fund". This might just go on the Texas A&M CC moneyline. Mark my words on TAMCC!! The biggest layup of the weekend. Eric read me something about them from his book and I instantly got a hard on.
Last two notes. I'm having some major issues filling out my bracket. I have done it now about 10 times. The first 4 times I had Winthrop and Vandy in my Great 8 and I had to just slam my head against the wall about 6 times to knock some sense into me. They the next couple of tries I have Tenn and the Zags. Ugh. I'm lost. But despite my struggles, I don't think I have been this excited about the tournament before. Maybe because I have watched so little basketball this year and I'm not warn out on it just yet. I'm giddy about a couple of upset picks that I hope still have decent odds by the time I get out there. Below is my plan on the moneylines:
Thursday:
9:00am Stanford: $20 moneyline
11:00am Oral Roberts: $40 moneyline
2:00: GW: $10 moneyline
4:10: VCU $20 moneyline
6:30: Zags $10 moneyline
Friday:
9:00am Albany: $10 moneyline
11:45: Winthrop: $20 moneyline (this line might drop even more so I just might skip it)
11:45 TAMCC: $40 moneyline (this might increase in $$$)
11:45 LBC: $10 moneyline- For my boys from the LBC!!!!!
6:30: Arkansas: $20 moneyline
6:30: Holy Cross: $20 moneyline** This might be the biggest sleeper. If we go into the last set of games without a 4 seed losing, I might unload on this. But if VA, TX, or MD lose then I will stay away from this.
Budget:
Sportsbook: 600
BJ: 700
Craps: 600
Poker: 300
Pai Gow: 300
Video Poker: 200
Total: 2,700
I also created a "Jay D I'm reloading fund" of $500 to make a midnight craps run at the Monte Carlo/New York New York. I have also created a $100 "Leland Women's College Hoops Midnight Layup Fund". This might just go on the Texas A&M CC moneyline. Mark my words on TAMCC!! The biggest layup of the weekend. Eric read me something about them from his book and I instantly got a hard on.
Last two notes. I'm having some major issues filling out my bracket. I have done it now about 10 times. The first 4 times I had Winthrop and Vandy in my Great 8 and I had to just slam my head against the wall about 6 times to knock some sense into me. They the next couple of tries I have Tenn and the Zags. Ugh. I'm lost. But despite my struggles, I don't think I have been this excited about the tournament before. Maybe because I have watched so little basketball this year and I'm not warn out on it just yet. I'm giddy about a couple of upset picks that I hope still have decent odds by the time I get out there. Below is my plan on the moneylines:
Thursday:
9:00am Stanford: $20 moneyline
11:00am Oral Roberts: $40 moneyline
2:00: GW: $10 moneyline
4:10: VCU $20 moneyline
6:30: Zags $10 moneyline
Friday:
9:00am Albany: $10 moneyline
11:45: Winthrop: $20 moneyline (this line might drop even more so I just might skip it)
11:45 TAMCC: $40 moneyline (this might increase in $$$)
11:45 LBC: $10 moneyline- For my boys from the LBC!!!!!
6:30: Arkansas: $20 moneyline
6:30: Holy Cross: $20 moneyline** This might be the biggest sleeper. If we go into the last set of games without a 4 seed losing, I might unload on this. But if VA, TX, or MD lose then I will stay away from this.
Random thoughts on the tourney
First of all, there is a $35 NCAA pool out there that I play in. The rules reward upsets - a correct pick gets you the seed times the round number. So if Winthrop wins a 2nd round game, that's 22 points if you picked it.
The website is www.levittsledger.com.
Quick thoughts on the tournament after 24 hours of reflection:
1) I am convinced Winthropwill beat ND - and so is everyone else (except Digger). As my friend Paul (who is a big ND fan) just said in an email - this game is like Md playing College of Charleston 10 years ago - everyone picked Charleston to win (in a 5/12 upset) and lo and behold, they did. Is it the same here?
2) Why is it soooooo hard for people to type these lettters in the bracket:
M
E
M
P
H
I
S
No question in my mind - none - that Memphis will go to the final 4. Who will beat them?
Nev/Creighton aren't athletic enough
Tex A&M got screwed and will lose to Louisville in round 2
Ohio St is overrated.
3) Both UNLV and BYU are massively underrated.
4) I still don't understand how Va vand Va Tech got their seeds.
5) VCU should stay right with Duke, if not win.
6) The Ten-LB game is like the stock market in 1999 - the totals just keep going up, up and up. It opened at 163, it is now at 170 in some places!
(but I am considering the under. Only one coach has to make the decision to slow it down and throw the other team off....and that's it for the over. Look, a 84-82 game is still under!)
7) First #1 seed to lose: I think Kansas. They are too inconsistent. Look for them to get toppled by Southern Illinois.
8) Upsets in the first round, possibly: ODU, Winthrop, Illinois, VCU, Arkansas.
I'm recanting on the Albany pick ( thanks to you, rrd).
9) Indiana-Gonzaga? BC-Tex Tech? I just don't care.
Kenpom.com score predictions coming tonight. This should shed light on some solid over/under plays.
The website is www.levittsledger.com.
Quick thoughts on the tournament after 24 hours of reflection:
1) I am convinced Winthropwill beat ND - and so is everyone else (except Digger). As my friend Paul (who is a big ND fan) just said in an email - this game is like Md playing College of Charleston 10 years ago - everyone picked Charleston to win (in a 5/12 upset) and lo and behold, they did. Is it the same here?
2) Why is it soooooo hard for people to type these lettters in the bracket:
M
E
M
P
H
I
S
No question in my mind - none - that Memphis will go to the final 4. Who will beat them?
Nev/Creighton aren't athletic enough
Tex A&M got screwed and will lose to Louisville in round 2
Ohio St is overrated.
3) Both UNLV and BYU are massively underrated.
4) I still don't understand how Va vand Va Tech got their seeds.
5) VCU should stay right with Duke, if not win.
6) The Ten-LB game is like the stock market in 1999 - the totals just keep going up, up and up. It opened at 163, it is now at 170 in some places!
(but I am considering the under. Only one coach has to make the decision to slow it down and throw the other team off....and that's it for the over. Look, a 84-82 game is still under!)
7) First #1 seed to lose: I think Kansas. They are too inconsistent. Look for them to get toppled by Southern Illinois.
8) Upsets in the first round, possibly: ODU, Winthrop, Illinois, VCU, Arkansas.
I'm recanting on the Albany pick ( thanks to you, rrd).
9) Indiana-Gonzaga? BC-Tex Tech? I just don't care.
Kenpom.com score predictions coming tonight. This should shed light on some solid over/under plays.
Mar 12, 2007
Schedule of Games
OK - for planning purposes, here is the schedule of games for the 1st two days. All times are Vegas time.
Thursday 9:20:
Maryland-Davidson (gees, the Terps leading off0
Boston College-Texas Tech
Louisville - Stanford
Thursday 11:45-12:00:
Butler-Old Dominion
Washington-Oral Roberts
Georgetown-Belmont
Texas A&M (the real one) - Penn
Mystery Game #1; Thursday 2:00
(only for people in Nashville and Washington DC):
Vanderbilt-George Washington
Thursday 4:10:
Duke-VCU
UCLA-Weber St
Marquette-Michigan St (LOCK of the year!!)
Ohio St- Cent Connecticut
Thursday 6:30:
Pitt-Wright St
Indiana - Gonzaga
North Carolina - E Kentucky
Xavier - BYU
Friday 9:20 am:
UNLV - Ga Tech (Vegas is playing at 9 in the morning???)
Virginia - Albany
Memphis - North Texas
Friday 11:45:
Notre Dame - Winthrop
Wisconsin - Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Tennessee - Long Beach
Nevada - Creighton (the Nevada Doubleheader)
Mystery Game #2, Friday 2:00
for people in Portland and Cincinnati
Oregon - Miami OH
Friday 4:00
Arizona-Purdue
Kansas - sacrificial play in winner (PS - Niagara is a LOCK on Tuesday)
Virginia Tech - Illinois
Texas - New Mexico St
Friday 6:30
Florida (with "Dancing with the stars" future participant Joakim Noah) - Jackson St
Kentucky - Villanova
Southern Ill - Holy Cross
Southern Cal - Arkansas
Thursday 9:20:
Maryland-Davidson (gees, the Terps leading off0
Boston College-Texas Tech
Louisville - Stanford
Thursday 11:45-12:00:
Butler-Old Dominion
Washington-Oral Roberts
Georgetown-Belmont
Texas A&M (the real one) - Penn
Mystery Game #1; Thursday 2:00
(only for people in Nashville and Washington DC):
Vanderbilt-George Washington
Thursday 4:10:
Duke-VCU
UCLA-Weber St
Marquette-Michigan St (LOCK of the year!!)
Ohio St- Cent Connecticut
Thursday 6:30:
Pitt-Wright St
Indiana - Gonzaga
North Carolina - E Kentucky
Xavier - BYU
Friday 9:20 am:
UNLV - Ga Tech (Vegas is playing at 9 in the morning???)
Virginia - Albany
Memphis - North Texas
Friday 11:45:
Notre Dame - Winthrop
Wisconsin - Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Tennessee - Long Beach
Nevada - Creighton (the Nevada Doubleheader)
Mystery Game #2, Friday 2:00
for people in Portland and Cincinnati
Oregon - Miami OH
Friday 4:00
Arizona-Purdue
Kansas - sacrificial play in winner (PS - Niagara is a LOCK on Tuesday)
Virginia Tech - Illinois
Texas - New Mexico St
Friday 6:30
Florida (with "Dancing with the stars" future participant Joakim Noah) - Jackson St
Kentucky - Villanova
Southern Ill - Holy Cross
Southern Cal - Arkansas
NIT
Ok group, here is the link to the Bracket. For those of you interested, it is $5. Please fax in at 562 494 3670 or email it to me. Do not send in the money. I will work out an arrangement on the cost. If it is the usual suspects entering in the tournament either I will see you this week, will see you in a month or two, or I owe you money. So its not a big deal.
You will need to have it submitted by March 13th.
Thanks,
You will need to have it submitted by March 13th.
Thanks,
Mar 11, 2007
Fuck Florida
Wow, did you see that post game interview with Joakim Noah? What an idiot. What an asshole.
Mar 10, 2007
God, please keep Wiz away from me.
OK, all of these other posts were just a warm up to this one. The pre Vegas prep. I'm posting this now since I need a lot of feedback on my plan. I always put a plan into place before I go out, but it falls through. I don't think I've ever put it into writing before, but this time is different. Without Jay or Lee out there, what is stopping Wiz and I from going crazy. $1000 on black on Thursday night at 11:00pm could very well happen if no one is watching us. Eric will stand by and judge, but not do anything, and Don will probably encourage us. So I need a written plan to follow.
Before we get started on the plan, let me tell you about a huge blunder that I did last week. Our company has profit sharing and is always paid out during the last week in March. I was going to change some of my payout options to receive more cash upfront due to this trip, marriage expenses, and Carol's real estate expenses. As usual, I procrastinated and was not able to change this option, which means that all of my profit sharing will go into my deferred account. Not a bad choice in the long run, but this just kills me in the short term. Oh, and I won't get my tax return back in time either, so now I'm really strapped for cash for this trip. I don't have a lot of room for error. I won't be able to handle a drunk night of crazy gambling losses like I used to. Oh, I just lost $300 on black? No biggie. 10 straight losing handles at BJ? No biggie. $25 on the hard ways? Let's do it. Well not anymore. And I can't wait for the judging eye of Eric when I start doing this on Friday night at 1:00am.
So here are some basic ground rules that I'm setting up:
1. Thursday will be spent with my friend Dick from AZ. We will play about 2-3 hours of video poker while watching the games and then make a trek out to the low end casinos to play $5 single deck BJ. Dick oversees our West Coast Claims Division and has a passion for slumming. Last year he stopped out and we hit The Orleans, South Coast, and two other shitty casinos to find a hot $5 BJ table. Lots of fun and very cost effective.
*Note*- Do not let Eric around this guy. When Dick and Eric first met, Eric didn't know that he was a VP of our company and let out the smelliest fart of all time at the bar in the Monte Carlo. First time I think I've ever seen Eric thoroughly embarrassed.
2. Hitch my wagon to Don in the evenings. I hate playing poker at the Mirage and I hate playing poker alone. But I will play a lot more poker this trip, as long as I can play with Don. This will also keep me sober during my most weakest hours; 8pm-midnight.
3. Watch what Eric and Wiz bet on, and if there are any matches, go in the opposite direction. I have never seen such a losing streak when several very knowledgeable basketball guys all agree on a certain game. Its crazy.
4. I will play roulette, but will not bet on black. I repeat, I will not bet on black.
5. Up my BJ play to a minimum of $25 a hand. This way it will eliminate the bad players. If I do play at a lesser table, then it has to be with the boys and nobody else.
6. Get up a leave immediately whenever I see a bad play by someone else at the table.
7. NO shuffle machines. Ever!! No matter how bad I want to play BJ, I will not play at a shuffle machine table.
8. Stay away from the Bellagio. I hate the dealers and clientele. Why do we always make a stop there?
9. If I go on a winning streak in the Sportsbook, do not start to increase the wagers. Stick to the plan. I tend to increase the wagers after I have a good session and then loss it all back. This is gambling 101. Ugh.
Am I forgetting anything? Breakdown of expenses:
Sportsbook: $640 for the trip. $10 a game. Now I'm not planning on wagering on every game, but I'm also not stupid and only go in there saying that I'm going to only wager on 5-6 games. I'm going to concentrate on the moneylines on the 11 and 12 seed teams and find one game to unload. Then I'll go with several $10 games. Jay, if you can help with some ideas on NBA games, that would be great. For me I can get into a game that I only have $10 on or $100.
2. BJ: $700- This is going to be interesting. Let's see if I can't break out of this losing streak that I've got going. I am willing to give up BJ, like I have done before if I continue to have these losing sessions.
3. Pai Gow: $300. Let's see if I can hang with Micah for a long session.
4. Craps:???- This is the real big question mark. $1000 budget? $500? $2000? I have no idea. I also need a strategy on what I'm going to do. I'm torn between the place bets and the come. I need some assistance on this.
5. Roulette: $600- That's two big times that I'll allow myself to play. No betting on red or black. Here that Wiz. I'm not doing it. Eric, Don, and Micah, please tackle me if you see this happen.
6. Video Poker: $200- This should hold me for a couple of bad runs with Dick.
7. Wheel: $200- I love playing Wheel of Fortune and is often forgotten.
8. Poker: $300- If I'm not winning, I'll stop. Its been a while since I've played, but still there is no excuse if I can't clean up.
So that is it. My total budget for gambling: $3940 if I go with $1000 for craps. Wow, that added up quickly. I wanted a $3000 budget, but I can live with $4000.
Thoughts? Ideas? Comments?
Before we get started on the plan, let me tell you about a huge blunder that I did last week. Our company has profit sharing and is always paid out during the last week in March. I was going to change some of my payout options to receive more cash upfront due to this trip, marriage expenses, and Carol's real estate expenses. As usual, I procrastinated and was not able to change this option, which means that all of my profit sharing will go into my deferred account. Not a bad choice in the long run, but this just kills me in the short term. Oh, and I won't get my tax return back in time either, so now I'm really strapped for cash for this trip. I don't have a lot of room for error. I won't be able to handle a drunk night of crazy gambling losses like I used to. Oh, I just lost $300 on black? No biggie. 10 straight losing handles at BJ? No biggie. $25 on the hard ways? Let's do it. Well not anymore. And I can't wait for the judging eye of Eric when I start doing this on Friday night at 1:00am.
So here are some basic ground rules that I'm setting up:
1. Thursday will be spent with my friend Dick from AZ. We will play about 2-3 hours of video poker while watching the games and then make a trek out to the low end casinos to play $5 single deck BJ. Dick oversees our West Coast Claims Division and has a passion for slumming. Last year he stopped out and we hit The Orleans, South Coast, and two other shitty casinos to find a hot $5 BJ table. Lots of fun and very cost effective.
*Note*- Do not let Eric around this guy. When Dick and Eric first met, Eric didn't know that he was a VP of our company and let out the smelliest fart of all time at the bar in the Monte Carlo. First time I think I've ever seen Eric thoroughly embarrassed.
2. Hitch my wagon to Don in the evenings. I hate playing poker at the Mirage and I hate playing poker alone. But I will play a lot more poker this trip, as long as I can play with Don. This will also keep me sober during my most weakest hours; 8pm-midnight.
3. Watch what Eric and Wiz bet on, and if there are any matches, go in the opposite direction. I have never seen such a losing streak when several very knowledgeable basketball guys all agree on a certain game. Its crazy.
4. I will play roulette, but will not bet on black. I repeat, I will not bet on black.
5. Up my BJ play to a minimum of $25 a hand. This way it will eliminate the bad players. If I do play at a lesser table, then it has to be with the boys and nobody else.
6. Get up a leave immediately whenever I see a bad play by someone else at the table.
7. NO shuffle machines. Ever!! No matter how bad I want to play BJ, I will not play at a shuffle machine table.
8. Stay away from the Bellagio. I hate the dealers and clientele. Why do we always make a stop there?
9. If I go on a winning streak in the Sportsbook, do not start to increase the wagers. Stick to the plan. I tend to increase the wagers after I have a good session and then loss it all back. This is gambling 101. Ugh.
Am I forgetting anything? Breakdown of expenses:
Sportsbook: $640 for the trip. $10 a game. Now I'm not planning on wagering on every game, but I'm also not stupid and only go in there saying that I'm going to only wager on 5-6 games. I'm going to concentrate on the moneylines on the 11 and 12 seed teams and find one game to unload. Then I'll go with several $10 games. Jay, if you can help with some ideas on NBA games, that would be great. For me I can get into a game that I only have $10 on or $100.
2. BJ: $700- This is going to be interesting. Let's see if I can't break out of this losing streak that I've got going. I am willing to give up BJ, like I have done before if I continue to have these losing sessions.
3. Pai Gow: $300. Let's see if I can hang with Micah for a long session.
4. Craps:???- This is the real big question mark. $1000 budget? $500? $2000? I have no idea. I also need a strategy on what I'm going to do. I'm torn between the place bets and the come. I need some assistance on this.
5. Roulette: $600- That's two big times that I'll allow myself to play. No betting on red or black. Here that Wiz. I'm not doing it. Eric, Don, and Micah, please tackle me if you see this happen.
6. Video Poker: $200- This should hold me for a couple of bad runs with Dick.
7. Wheel: $200- I love playing Wheel of Fortune and is often forgotten.
8. Poker: $300- If I'm not winning, I'll stop. Its been a while since I've played, but still there is no excuse if I can't clean up.
So that is it. My total budget for gambling: $3940 if I go with $1000 for craps. Wow, that added up quickly. I wanted a $3000 budget, but I can live with $4000.
Thoughts? Ideas? Comments?
Rotisserie Baseball
One of the great things about the opening weekend of the basketball tournament is that it means the start of my Rotisseries Baseball league is right around the corner. Nothing like spending 6-7 hours on a cell phone with your partner back east drafting your team. You want to talk about having red ears. Jesus. Its terrible. The last two times I've been out in Vegas for this and I've completed one draft in a Starbucks, and the other one in the parking garage of the Monte Carlo. Why don't I do it in my room? Well everyone is sleeping so I'm forced to go outside. I feel like I will have to do this again. Maybe I'll force the manager to open up our Vegas office for this.
Anyway, Jon (jorgeblogsada) is my partner in this traditional auction 5 by 5 league with a couple of twists. Each player that you pick up during the auction, you get them for 3 years at the same salary. We also have a 10 player minor league system that is completed by auctions as well. It is a traditional rotisserie league, and not a week to week format, so the winner is decided by the year end totals of each category. So there isn't any playoffs and if you start out slow, the season tends to be over. Jon and I have been out of it early two times and we end up calling the season early and dump our top players with high contracts for top notch minor leaguers and keepers so we are all set for the next season. This ends of working out perfectly, despite everyone getting pissed at us. It is very obvious that nobody likes us in the league, but who gives a shit. The only reason why we stay in the league is that it is the best feeling when you kick all of their asses, knowing that they can't stand you. Ahhh.
So last year Jon and I built a very solid team, and with some amazing moves during the year, we positioned ourselves to win the entire year during the last weekend of the season. We ended up dropping all of our starters and picked up 4 crappy closers. All we needed was 1-2 saves over the weekend between 6 closers to win the league. Well what happens is probably one of the most crushing events in fantasy baseball, football, or basketball ever. Watching each game closely on Saturday, we had 4 opportunities to get a save. And game by game we saw each closer blow the lead and lose the game. 4 fucking blown saves in one day. All we needed was one save to tie and 2 saves to win the entire thing. Think about that. The entire season came down to being 1 save short. So when guys come up to me and say "Man I lost my football fantasy because player x was one yard short", I say who cares. Not a big deal. That's just one game. We lost by one fucking save over the course of the entire baseball season. Crushing.
So we go into this year with the same strategy. Pay big money for the two anchors of our team (Pujols and Santana) and then fill in with a bunch of in between players. I'm mainly the finance and minor league guy and Jon is the draft day guru for our major league teams. Its like a CEO and CFO working together during the draft day. Jon wants a player and the bidding is getting a little too high and I'm screaming into the phone the remaining money per player we can spend and how many positions we have left to fill. God I love Access and pivot tables. It make it so easy. During the bidding and it takes one second to do projections of our salary cap. That's the way its got to be. One guy with the ideas and the other to bring him back to earth at times due to financial limitations. Works perfectly.
Anyway, Jon (jorgeblogsada) is my partner in this traditional auction 5 by 5 league with a couple of twists. Each player that you pick up during the auction, you get them for 3 years at the same salary. We also have a 10 player minor league system that is completed by auctions as well. It is a traditional rotisserie league, and not a week to week format, so the winner is decided by the year end totals of each category. So there isn't any playoffs and if you start out slow, the season tends to be over. Jon and I have been out of it early two times and we end up calling the season early and dump our top players with high contracts for top notch minor leaguers and keepers so we are all set for the next season. This ends of working out perfectly, despite everyone getting pissed at us. It is very obvious that nobody likes us in the league, but who gives a shit. The only reason why we stay in the league is that it is the best feeling when you kick all of their asses, knowing that they can't stand you. Ahhh.
So last year Jon and I built a very solid team, and with some amazing moves during the year, we positioned ourselves to win the entire year during the last weekend of the season. We ended up dropping all of our starters and picked up 4 crappy closers. All we needed was 1-2 saves over the weekend between 6 closers to win the league. Well what happens is probably one of the most crushing events in fantasy baseball, football, or basketball ever. Watching each game closely on Saturday, we had 4 opportunities to get a save. And game by game we saw each closer blow the lead and lose the game. 4 fucking blown saves in one day. All we needed was one save to tie and 2 saves to win the entire thing. Think about that. The entire season came down to being 1 save short. So when guys come up to me and say "Man I lost my football fantasy because player x was one yard short", I say who cares. Not a big deal. That's just one game. We lost by one fucking save over the course of the entire baseball season. Crushing.
So we go into this year with the same strategy. Pay big money for the two anchors of our team (Pujols and Santana) and then fill in with a bunch of in between players. I'm mainly the finance and minor league guy and Jon is the draft day guru for our major league teams. Its like a CEO and CFO working together during the draft day. Jon wants a player and the bidding is getting a little too high and I'm screaming into the phone the remaining money per player we can spend and how many positions we have left to fill. God I love Access and pivot tables. It make it so easy. During the bidding and it takes one second to do projections of our salary cap. That's the way its got to be. One guy with the ideas and the other to bring him back to earth at times due to financial limitations. Works perfectly.
NIT
Group,
We will be holding a NIT tournament for $5. 1/2 of the proceeds will be going to the March of Dimes. Please let me know if you are interested and I will get you a link to the brackets and the rules.
We will be holding a NIT tournament for $5. 1/2 of the proceeds will be going to the March of Dimes. Please let me know if you are interested and I will get you a link to the brackets and the rules.
Basketball Ramblings
- Since I'm just starting to watch College Hoops now during the last couple of games during the regular season and all of the conference play, I'm wondering if that is not a good way to judge if a team will do well in the tournament. And I'm not talking about winning it all, just getting into the sweet 16, since that is when we will be wager on the teams. Eric, we need the breakdown of seeds 3-6 on what they have traditionally done in their conference tournament.
- Trying to research the above information, I came across some interesting information like the 12 seed has been more successful against the 5 seed (33% winning %) than the 11 seed has been against the 6 seed (31%).
- What the hell happened to the Terps. Lee said we got killed on the boards by a team that played 4 guards. Ugh. That is terrible. I know people are trying to play it off, but this was a terrible loss an has me very worried.
- How many teams does Diger Phelps have in the tournament? 120? Everyone should be in. Nice to see Vitale call him out on this.
- I really think Eric should start up a College Basketball website. Lee and I spent 30 minutes last week questioning him about every mid major and minor conference and his answers were correct 60% of the time. Simply amazing. He could easily make some money during this time of year for people looking for advice.
- I fucking hate Hansbourgh with a passion. If he stays another year, he could get up there with Latiner, Hurley, Wojo, and Parks as the most hated college white guy.
- 30 seconds left in the game and you are down by 1. What do you do as a coach? The Vermont team just dribbled it on top for 25 seconds and then turned it over. What a terrible ending. Why not shoot it and just in case if you miss you can foul. Ugh.
- Crap. The updated brackets show the Terps as a 4, but playing in Spokane. And who is in their bracket and a possible matchup in the second round? Gonzaga. Gonzaga playing in Spokane? I don't like it.
Mar 9, 2007
Conswella, put down the bat!!!
So I'm making dinner last night and I hear some noise outside of the kitchen window. It sounded like little kids playing, so I ignored it at first. I walk into the living room and Carol and I still hear what seems to be little boys playing right outside of our kitchen window. When I go check it out, I see a 50 year old Mexican lady beating what seems to be a 14 year old boy with a bat. It took a couple of seconds to register and then I went outside to stop it. When I turned the corner it was like this picture. 25 people yelling at each other, women crying, little kids screaming, and this old Mexican women with a bat still yelling. I heard one guy who I think was our neighbor yelling to the Mexican family "Your not supposed to hit someone that is on the ground like that. Do you understand?? He was down, no mas" So I decided to come back inside since our neighbor had it under control. Whatever. Well I go to take the trash out later on that night and there was about 6 cop cars in the parking lot. They were arresting what seemed to be 5-6 people.
Exciting night in Dana Point.
Mar 7, 2007
Cue the Joan Jett Music...
Well, this is a first for me.
The big NFL news today is that Jamal Lewis has signed a contract with the Cleveland Browns.
This is going to be interesting, no?
I can't recall a Cleveland team signing somebody that most of the league hates - and/or is considered a bad apple. No, Albert Belle doesn't count, since he grew up an Indian - hell, I remember rooting for him when he was Joey Belle! And the same rule applies to Kellen Winslow. Those guys were homegrown, and us Cleveland fans loves/d them while no other fans did.
Now - unless there was a Mark Carreon hate club out there that I missed - we have signed someone who is talented, but is hated by most of the league, mostly due to his significant drug conviction. (I have called him "8-ball" Lewis multiple times.)
How do I feel about this? Honestly, I have no idea.
Look - I'm not naive enough to wish that all the players on my team were 100% clean. But gees - I don't know how many times I called Baltimore "Crackmore" over the past few years...and here we are with Jamal.
Talent wise, is this a good signing? I guess. This is like a Billy Beane signing - a risk with lots of upside potential. (I'm sure Derek will violently correct me on this statement). Do I think his best years are behind him? I do. But he is only - only! - 27. So I very easily could be wrong.
It's going to be awfully hard to root for him in September. However, once he scores a touchdown, I think I will be over it and will buy his jersey the next day.
(That reminds me - his number was #31 in Baltimore, right? I'm sure he can have #31 in Cleveland - the same number as Willie Green! I just need to rip off the "Green" and put "Lewis" on my jersey - ta da!)
Will I hate myself for loving him? Yes, unless the wins pile up next year. Then it will be easy. But that's a big if.
The big NFL news today is that Jamal Lewis has signed a contract with the Cleveland Browns.
This is going to be interesting, no?
I can't recall a Cleveland team signing somebody that most of the league hates - and/or is considered a bad apple. No, Albert Belle doesn't count, since he grew up an Indian - hell, I remember rooting for him when he was Joey Belle! And the same rule applies to Kellen Winslow. Those guys were homegrown, and us Cleveland fans loves/d them while no other fans did.
Now - unless there was a Mark Carreon hate club out there that I missed - we have signed someone who is talented, but is hated by most of the league, mostly due to his significant drug conviction. (I have called him "8-ball" Lewis multiple times.)
How do I feel about this? Honestly, I have no idea.
Look - I'm not naive enough to wish that all the players on my team were 100% clean. But gees - I don't know how many times I called Baltimore "Crackmore" over the past few years...and here we are with Jamal.
Talent wise, is this a good signing? I guess. This is like a Billy Beane signing - a risk with lots of upside potential. (I'm sure Derek will violently correct me on this statement). Do I think his best years are behind him? I do. But he is only - only! - 27. So I very easily could be wrong.
It's going to be awfully hard to root for him in September. However, once he scores a touchdown, I think I will be over it and will buy his jersey the next day.
(That reminds me - his number was #31 in Baltimore, right? I'm sure he can have #31 in Cleveland - the same number as Willie Green! I just need to rip off the "Green" and put "Lewis" on my jersey - ta da!)
Will I hate myself for loving him? Yes, unless the wins pile up next year. Then it will be easy. But that's a big if.
11 Seed
Has there ever been an 11 seed favorite before? I know of several 10 seeds that have been the favorite, but I can't think of an 11. Will this be the first year that this will happen?
Mar 6, 2007
Willpower......I need willpower, quickly
So I think I blogged a few weeks ago that I was sick of being overweight - I believe this was right before Derek's wedding, when someone took my measurements for my tux and they told me I was a 40 waist. Dear God- the horror! I am not a 40!
So I actually did something about it....since mid-January, I've been eating healthier at lunch, making sure I eat something for breakfast (as opposed to nothing), and I am jogging 3 times a week - even during the crappy weather we've had in February.
The results? I am down 6 pounds in 6 weeks. I know, not Dan Marino-like numbers, but I feel better and it's not a wholesale lifestlye change. This can be sustained.....
But today is my biggest challenge...
My work computer crashed yesterday, so it is now in the hands of IT. I don't expect to get it back until late today at the earliest. On top of that, Warren has a fever - and since I really can't do anything without my work computer, I'm staying home with him.
Now I feel like Alice in the above Dilbert strip. I've got to make sure I don't go through a box (or two) of Girl Scout cookies in our pantry. I treated Warren to McDonalds this morning - of course, I had to get something too.... and he's not eating his McGriddle, so now that's sitting there staring me in the face....
I hope those 6 pounds I lost aren't gained over 8 hours today....
Mar 4, 2007
Observations on the NCAAs, with a week left
Some of my thoughts off the top of my head on the NCAAs, with a week left until Selection Sunday.
(Good news, by the way! The Blue Ribbon Tournament Guide is back! I used to get this all the time from 1995-01 when it was published. It is a 80 page guide with a 1 page description on each of the teams. It did not publish for the past 5 years; it is resuming publication in 2007. I am getting the hard copy delivered Fed Ex on the TUesday before the tournament.
Thoughts by conference, with the # of locks in parentheses:
ACC (7): Let's get it out there. If I'm a #12 seed or so, who the hell am I supposed to be scraed of in this conference outside of NC or Md? Virginia had the conference title in their hand - but lost at Wake with it all on the line. Va Tech looked awful at Va Tech and couldn't beat Clemson at home. BC? Blown out. Duke is overrated, in my opinion. Ga Tech may be the 3rd best team in the conference.
Fla St has a chance to get in - if they win the 8/9 game - but Clemson is out for now.
Am East (1): If Vermont gets in, they'd be a solid 13; if not, then the winner is a 15 at best.
A-10 (1? 2?): Did you know this tourney is played in...Atlantic City? How much did Trump pay them to move it there?
Xavier is in, no matter what. If they lose the conf tourney, then this conference will get 2.
Atl Sun (1): Belmont is in, possibly a 14.
Big East (7): Georgetown is solid, but who else? Pitt is fading, Marquette has questions, Notre Dame can't play away from home, Louisville could do some damage. I think both Syracuse and Villanove are overrated - look at Syracuse's road record - but we will give them a spot for now. West Virginia is out, according to me.
Big Ten (??? 3? 6?) : Ohio St is a solid #1...I think Wisconsin has questions - they can be overpowered physically. Indiana is paying better now. Then what? Michigan St is 1-8 away from home, Illinois just lost to Iowa, Purdue plays hard but they're not that talented, and Michigan sucks. I can see 3,4 or 5 - not 6.
Big West (1): Long Beach St will be a 14. I know nothing about them.
Big 12 (4). Right now, Kansas is a #1, Texas A&M is a solid 2, Texas is zooming up the charts, and Tex Tech sneaks in. Who else? Is Huggy Bear and the Kansas St Wildcats in? Possibly, depending on the tourneys.
Big South (1): Winthrop is in, possibly as high as a 10. They can win 2 games - an #11 seed would be perfect for them.
Big Sky (1): I know nothing.
CAA (2): Just a mess. If Old Dominion wins tongiht, then I think both VCU (reg season champ) and ODU (highest RPI, at 35) are both in. What about Drexel? They won at Syracuse and at Villanova - but finished 4th in conference and looked outclassed today vs. VCU. My prediction: they are the last team out.
C-USA: (1/2): Memphis is in. That's it, unless they lose. Their final is at 10:35 am local time next Saturday. A high price to pay for national TV exposure.
Horizon (2): Butler is in, although they are really struggling. I predict, however, that Wright St will win on the Eric A. Zahn memorial court in Dayton.... and the conference gets 2.
I also predict that Butler is this year's Nevada from 06, and may flame out in round 1.
Ivy: (1): Penn is in, but they are not a good 14.
MAC(1): Akron or Toledo, for a #13 seed.
MAAC(1): Loyola is still alive! They play tonight.
MEAC (1): The winner gets a 16 seed.
MVC (2/3): Creghton and Sothern Illinois are in- Southern is the real deal, and can go far as a 3 seed and the right draw (Wisconsin?). Missouri St is 3rd, and may get in. Last team in or out.
Moutain West (3): BYU and UNLV are two good teams I haven't seen. Air Force is struggling, but they should get in. The big questions is if San Diego St can sneak in with a tourney final appearance. I say no.
Mid-Con(1): Oral Roberts beat Kansas earlier this year; if they get in , they will be an interesting 14.
Northeast (1): Mt St Mary's i splaying now against hte #1 seed: if they win (vs Cent Conn), the winner of the conference certainly goes to Dayton for the play in game.
OVC (1): Eastern Kentucky is a 15/16.
Patriot (1): The winner of Bucknell/Holy Cross wil lbe a tough 13/14; the loser goes to the NIT.
Pac-10 (6): I guess we will take all 6. UCLA has locked up a #1, but then what? How good is Washington St? Oregon has Ernie Kent as their coach - that takes them down a notch. USC is young. Arizona just falls asleep at times. I think Stanford is closer to the bubble than people realize. Washington needs to win to get in.
SEC (4): God, the SEC West is worse than the 1994 AL West. Who would have guessed that the two teams getting the byes from the SEC West are - Mississippi and Mississippi St, both 8-8???
And how good in Florida - they lost 3 down the stretch. Kentucky is overrated - mark my words. Tennessee can't win away from home - and Vanderbilt just lost to a horrid Arkansas team. Honestly, I can see LSU getting hot and winning the whole thing and getting in.
Gees, this golf is insane. I love a tournament when everyone puts it in reverse and someone who finished 100 minutes ago now is in a playoff.
Southern (1): Davidson will be a 12/13, and could win a game.
Southland (1): I know nothing, but the name "Texas A&M at Corpus Christi" would be a loooong name to put on a bracket.
SWAC (1). Who knows. The winner goes to Dayton.
Sun Belt (1): The favorite lost; Western Kentucky is the leader now and probably will be a 15.
WAC (1)?: Nevada is in, but I don't like them. Fazekas just looks like a lightweight. I wached them last night and saw New Mex St - a good team - physically beat them, although they fouled a lot. I can easily see Nevada losing in the WAC tourney, stealing another bid.
WCC (1). What to do with Gonzaga if they don't win? This team beat North Carolina... in November, with the two players that are now out for the mushroom incident. The winner (either Gonzaga or Santa Clara) will be a 12 or 13.
So - doing my math, that's.....62, given 4 for the big 10. That leaves 3 more for conference upsets - like the A-10, Horizon, WAC, and C-USA; otherwise, teams like Clemson, Fla St, WV, K St, 5th big 10, Drexel, Missouri St.
I love 4-way PGA playoffs, especially when someone hits their tee ball in the mud.
(Good news, by the way! The Blue Ribbon Tournament Guide is back! I used to get this all the time from 1995-01 when it was published. It is a 80 page guide with a 1 page description on each of the teams. It did not publish for the past 5 years; it is resuming publication in 2007. I am getting the hard copy delivered Fed Ex on the TUesday before the tournament.
Thoughts by conference, with the # of locks in parentheses:
ACC (7): Let's get it out there. If I'm a #12 seed or so, who the hell am I supposed to be scraed of in this conference outside of NC or Md? Virginia had the conference title in their hand - but lost at Wake with it all on the line. Va Tech looked awful at Va Tech and couldn't beat Clemson at home. BC? Blown out. Duke is overrated, in my opinion. Ga Tech may be the 3rd best team in the conference.
Fla St has a chance to get in - if they win the 8/9 game - but Clemson is out for now.
Am East (1): If Vermont gets in, they'd be a solid 13; if not, then the winner is a 15 at best.
A-10 (1? 2?): Did you know this tourney is played in...Atlantic City? How much did Trump pay them to move it there?
Xavier is in, no matter what. If they lose the conf tourney, then this conference will get 2.
Atl Sun (1): Belmont is in, possibly a 14.
Big East (7): Georgetown is solid, but who else? Pitt is fading, Marquette has questions, Notre Dame can't play away from home, Louisville could do some damage. I think both Syracuse and Villanove are overrated - look at Syracuse's road record - but we will give them a spot for now. West Virginia is out, according to me.
Big Ten (??? 3? 6?) : Ohio St is a solid #1...I think Wisconsin has questions - they can be overpowered physically. Indiana is paying better now. Then what? Michigan St is 1-8 away from home, Illinois just lost to Iowa, Purdue plays hard but they're not that talented, and Michigan sucks. I can see 3,4 or 5 - not 6.
Big West (1): Long Beach St will be a 14. I know nothing about them.
Big 12 (4). Right now, Kansas is a #1, Texas A&M is a solid 2, Texas is zooming up the charts, and Tex Tech sneaks in. Who else? Is Huggy Bear and the Kansas St Wildcats in? Possibly, depending on the tourneys.
Big South (1): Winthrop is in, possibly as high as a 10. They can win 2 games - an #11 seed would be perfect for them.
Big Sky (1): I know nothing.
CAA (2): Just a mess. If Old Dominion wins tongiht, then I think both VCU (reg season champ) and ODU (highest RPI, at 35) are both in. What about Drexel? They won at Syracuse and at Villanova - but finished 4th in conference and looked outclassed today vs. VCU. My prediction: they are the last team out.
C-USA: (1/2): Memphis is in. That's it, unless they lose. Their final is at 10:35 am local time next Saturday. A high price to pay for national TV exposure.
Horizon (2): Butler is in, although they are really struggling. I predict, however, that Wright St will win on the Eric A. Zahn memorial court in Dayton.... and the conference gets 2.
I also predict that Butler is this year's Nevada from 06, and may flame out in round 1.
Ivy: (1): Penn is in, but they are not a good 14.
MAC(1): Akron or Toledo, for a #13 seed.
MAAC(1): Loyola is still alive! They play tonight.
MEAC (1): The winner gets a 16 seed.
MVC (2/3): Creghton and Sothern Illinois are in- Southern is the real deal, and can go far as a 3 seed and the right draw (Wisconsin?). Missouri St is 3rd, and may get in. Last team in or out.
Moutain West (3): BYU and UNLV are two good teams I haven't seen. Air Force is struggling, but they should get in. The big questions is if San Diego St can sneak in with a tourney final appearance. I say no.
Mid-Con(1): Oral Roberts beat Kansas earlier this year; if they get in , they will be an interesting 14.
Northeast (1): Mt St Mary's i splaying now against hte #1 seed: if they win (vs Cent Conn), the winner of the conference certainly goes to Dayton for the play in game.
OVC (1): Eastern Kentucky is a 15/16.
Patriot (1): The winner of Bucknell/Holy Cross wil lbe a tough 13/14; the loser goes to the NIT.
Pac-10 (6): I guess we will take all 6. UCLA has locked up a #1, but then what? How good is Washington St? Oregon has Ernie Kent as their coach - that takes them down a notch. USC is young. Arizona just falls asleep at times. I think Stanford is closer to the bubble than people realize. Washington needs to win to get in.
SEC (4): God, the SEC West is worse than the 1994 AL West. Who would have guessed that the two teams getting the byes from the SEC West are - Mississippi and Mississippi St, both 8-8???
And how good in Florida - they lost 3 down the stretch. Kentucky is overrated - mark my words. Tennessee can't win away from home - and Vanderbilt just lost to a horrid Arkansas team. Honestly, I can see LSU getting hot and winning the whole thing and getting in.
Gees, this golf is insane. I love a tournament when everyone puts it in reverse and someone who finished 100 minutes ago now is in a playoff.
Southern (1): Davidson will be a 12/13, and could win a game.
Southland (1): I know nothing, but the name "Texas A&M at Corpus Christi" would be a loooong name to put on a bracket.
SWAC (1). Who knows. The winner goes to Dayton.
Sun Belt (1): The favorite lost; Western Kentucky is the leader now and probably will be a 15.
WAC (1)?: Nevada is in, but I don't like them. Fazekas just looks like a lightweight. I wached them last night and saw New Mex St - a good team - physically beat them, although they fouled a lot. I can easily see Nevada losing in the WAC tourney, stealing another bid.
WCC (1). What to do with Gonzaga if they don't win? This team beat North Carolina... in November, with the two players that are now out for the mushroom incident. The winner (either Gonzaga or Santa Clara) will be a 12 or 13.
So - doing my math, that's.....62, given 4 for the big 10. That leaves 3 more for conference upsets - like the A-10, Horizon, WAC, and C-USA; otherwise, teams like Clemson, Fla St, WV, K St, 5th big 10, Drexel, Missouri St.
I love 4-way PGA playoffs, especially when someone hits their tee ball in the mud.
Mar 2, 2007
Injury Pool
We interrupt or coverage of NCAA Basketball to bring you the following news bulletin:
The Cleveland Browns have just signed the best Offensive Lineman FA in 2007, Guard Eric Steinbach (from Iowa), to a seven-year deal. Steinbach played his first four years with the Cincinnati Bengals.
So - the pool is:
When will Steinbach have his season-ending injury in 2007?
a. August 12
b. September 2
c. October 21
d. November 1
The Cleveland Browns have just signed the best Offensive Lineman FA in 2007, Guard Eric Steinbach (from Iowa), to a seven-year deal. Steinbach played his first four years with the Cincinnati Bengals.
So - the pool is:
When will Steinbach have his season-ending injury in 2007?
a. August 12
b. September 2
c. October 21
d. November 1
Picks for Friday March 2
Ok - so far in the beta test for my new picking philosophy, I am 5-3. Let's continue with only 5 picks from today's tournament games:
Georgia St/W&M over 124
Bradley -1
Loyola-Chi -4.5
Rider (Derek's 2nd favorite school) -5.5
Towson -4.5
Georgia St/W&M over 124
Bradley -1
Loyola-Chi -4.5
Rider (Derek's 2nd favorite school) -5.5
Towson -4.5
Mar 1, 2007
NCAA Tournament Theory #1
Allow me if you will to have my next posts help confirm or debuk some theories I have about picking winners/upsets in the Tourney.
The first tasks is to focus on upsets. One theory is that a lower-seeded team that emerges as a Cinderella undoubtedly has previous tournament experience. Rookie or first-time teams are usually not Cinderella.
I have looked at the Tournament results for the past 7 years and picked out the #12-#16 seeds that either won or lost by 5 (covered the spread, you know). Out of those teams, I looked at the previous history of the team.
Here we go:
2006: 8 teams (out of a possible 20)
Tex A&M - 12 seed; won 1 game
no previous experience
NW St - 14; won 1
no exp.
Bradley - 13; won 2 games
no exp.
Xavier - 14; lost by 3
2004- 7 seed, elite 8; 2003 - 3 seed, won 1 game
Murray St - 14, lost by 4
04 -12 seed, lost
Winthrop - 15, lost by 2
05 - 14 seed, lost
Montana - 12; won 1 game
05- 16 seed, lost
Pacific - 13 seed, lost in 2OT
05 - 8 seed, won1 game; 04- 12 seed, won 1 game
2005: 3 teams:
Wis-Milwaukee: 12, won 2 games
03 - 12 seed, lost
Ohio: 13 seed, lost by 5
no exp.
Vermont: 13; won 1 game
04- 15 seed, lost; 03- 16 seed, lost
2004: 7 teams
Pacific: 12 seed, won 1 game
no exp.
Northern Iowa: 14 seed, lost by 5
no exp.
Manhattan: 12 seed, won 1 game
03: 14 seed, lost
VCU: 13 seed, lost by 1
no exp.
E Tenn St: 13 seed, lost by 3
03 - 15 seed, lost
BYU: 12 seed, lost by 5
03: 12 seed lost
2003: 8 teams
Tulsa - 13 seed, won 1 game (over *(&$^@#$ Dayton)
02: 12 seed, won 1 game
Holy Cross: 14 seed, lost by 4
02: 16 seed, lost; 01: 15 seed, lost
Wis-Mil: 12 seed, lost by 1
no exp
Western Ky: 13 seed, lost by 5
02: 9 seed, lost; 01: 14 seed, lost
Utah St: 15 seed, lost by 3
01: 12 seed, won 1 game; 00: 12 seed, lost
BYU: 12 seed, lost by 5
01: 12 seed, lost
Butler: 12 see, won 2 games
01: 10 seed, won 1; 00: 12 seed, lost
ETSU: 15 seed, lost by 3
no exp
2002: 6 teams
UNC-Wilm: 13 seed, won 1 game
00: 15 seed, lost
Missouri: 12 seed, won 3 games
01: 9 seed, won 1; 00: 9 seed, lost; 99: 8 seed, lost
Davidson: 13 seed, lost by 5
no exp
UC-SB: 14 seed, lost by 5
no exp
Tulsa: 12 seed, won 1 game
00: 7 seed, won 3 games; 99: 9 seed, won 1 game
Creighton: 12 seed, won 1 game
00: 10 seed, lost; 99: 10 seed, won 1 game
2001: 9 teams
Iona: 14 seed, lost by 2
00: 14 seed, lost; 98: 12 seed, lost
Gonzaga: 12 seed: won 2 games
00: 10 seed, won 2 games; 99: 10 seed, won 3 games
Indiana St: 13 seed, won 1 game
00: 12 seed, lost
Utah St: 12 seed, won 1 game
00: 12 seed, lost: 98: 13 seed, lost
Southern Utah: 14 seed, lost by 3
no exp
Holy Cross: 15 seed, lost by 4
no exp
Kent St: 13 seed, won 1 game
99: 11 seed, lost
George Mason: 14 seed, lost by 3 (to Maryland!)
99: 14 seed, lost
Hampton: 15 seed, won 1 game
no exp
2000: 5 teams - none of which won (NO upsets pulled by any team #12 or higher!)
SE Missouri St: 13 seed,lost by 3
no exp
Northern Arizona: 15 seed, lost by 5
98: 15 seed,lost
St Bonaventure: 12 seed, lost by 5, 2OT
no exp
Butler: 12 seed, lost by 1
98: 13 seed, lost; 97: 14 seed, lost
LA-Lafayette: 13 seed, lost by 5
no exp
What does this all mean? Hell if I know. You tell me.
Actually, there were 46 teams over the past 7 eyars that were #12 seeds or hight and either won or lost by 5 or less.
Out of these 46 teams, only 18 of them had no tourney experience in the previous 4 years. 28 of them did.
Out of those 28 , only 9 of themhad won a tourney game in the past 4 years.
So the Cinderellas have tourney experience, but may not have actually won a game in the recent past. Sometimes the teams are rising - their seed has gone up and up each year until their breakthrough (seeVermont, 05 and Holy Cross, 03 and Utah St, 01). Sometimes it is just their second year to the tourney after a bad debut last year or the year before (Montana, 06; Wisc-Mil, 03; Manhattan, 04).
But sometimes it is a semi-established team that has had higher seeds in the past but is having a down year - like Xavier, 06; Tulsa, 03; Missouri, 02; Creighton, 02).
Any teams this year fit these molds?
Well, the first one that clearly stands out is Winthrop. Their seed will improve form a 14 in 05 and a 15 in 06 to something like a 11/12 this year. Second-year teams that could make an impact are Oral Roberts (16 in 06), Davidson(15 in 06), SOuth Alabama (14 in 06).
An established team in a down year with a high seed could be Illinois (a 12 possibly this year) or a mystery team from a high-mid, like the WAC, A-10, or C-USA (Temple? UAB? Hawaii?)
Just things to think about....
The first tasks is to focus on upsets. One theory is that a lower-seeded team that emerges as a Cinderella undoubtedly has previous tournament experience. Rookie or first-time teams are usually not Cinderella.
I have looked at the Tournament results for the past 7 years and picked out the #12-#16 seeds that either won or lost by 5 (covered the spread, you know). Out of those teams, I looked at the previous history of the team.
Here we go:
2006: 8 teams (out of a possible 20)
Tex A&M - 12 seed; won 1 game
no previous experience
NW St - 14; won 1
no exp.
Bradley - 13; won 2 games
no exp.
Xavier - 14; lost by 3
2004- 7 seed, elite 8; 2003 - 3 seed, won 1 game
Murray St - 14, lost by 4
04 -12 seed, lost
Winthrop - 15, lost by 2
05 - 14 seed, lost
Montana - 12; won 1 game
05- 16 seed, lost
Pacific - 13 seed, lost in 2OT
05 - 8 seed, won1 game; 04- 12 seed, won 1 game
2005: 3 teams:
Wis-Milwaukee: 12, won 2 games
03 - 12 seed, lost
Ohio: 13 seed, lost by 5
no exp.
Vermont: 13; won 1 game
04- 15 seed, lost; 03- 16 seed, lost
2004: 7 teams
Pacific: 12 seed, won 1 game
no exp.
Northern Iowa: 14 seed, lost by 5
no exp.
Manhattan: 12 seed, won 1 game
03: 14 seed, lost
VCU: 13 seed, lost by 1
no exp.
E Tenn St: 13 seed, lost by 3
03 - 15 seed, lost
BYU: 12 seed, lost by 5
03: 12 seed lost
2003: 8 teams
Tulsa - 13 seed, won 1 game (over *(&$^@#$ Dayton)
02: 12 seed, won 1 game
Holy Cross: 14 seed, lost by 4
02: 16 seed, lost; 01: 15 seed, lost
Wis-Mil: 12 seed, lost by 1
no exp
Western Ky: 13 seed, lost by 5
02: 9 seed, lost; 01: 14 seed, lost
Utah St: 15 seed, lost by 3
01: 12 seed, won 1 game; 00: 12 seed, lost
BYU: 12 seed, lost by 5
01: 12 seed, lost
Butler: 12 see, won 2 games
01: 10 seed, won 1; 00: 12 seed, lost
ETSU: 15 seed, lost by 3
no exp
2002: 6 teams
UNC-Wilm: 13 seed, won 1 game
00: 15 seed, lost
Missouri: 12 seed, won 3 games
01: 9 seed, won 1; 00: 9 seed, lost; 99: 8 seed, lost
Davidson: 13 seed, lost by 5
no exp
UC-SB: 14 seed, lost by 5
no exp
Tulsa: 12 seed, won 1 game
00: 7 seed, won 3 games; 99: 9 seed, won 1 game
Creighton: 12 seed, won 1 game
00: 10 seed, lost; 99: 10 seed, won 1 game
2001: 9 teams
Iona: 14 seed, lost by 2
00: 14 seed, lost; 98: 12 seed, lost
Gonzaga: 12 seed: won 2 games
00: 10 seed, won 2 games; 99: 10 seed, won 3 games
Indiana St: 13 seed, won 1 game
00: 12 seed, lost
Utah St: 12 seed, won 1 game
00: 12 seed, lost: 98: 13 seed, lost
Southern Utah: 14 seed, lost by 3
no exp
Holy Cross: 15 seed, lost by 4
no exp
Kent St: 13 seed, won 1 game
99: 11 seed, lost
George Mason: 14 seed, lost by 3 (to Maryland!)
99: 14 seed, lost
Hampton: 15 seed, won 1 game
no exp
2000: 5 teams - none of which won (NO upsets pulled by any team #12 or higher!)
SE Missouri St: 13 seed,lost by 3
no exp
Northern Arizona: 15 seed, lost by 5
98: 15 seed,lost
St Bonaventure: 12 seed, lost by 5, 2OT
no exp
Butler: 12 seed, lost by 1
98: 13 seed, lost; 97: 14 seed, lost
LA-Lafayette: 13 seed, lost by 5
no exp
What does this all mean? Hell if I know. You tell me.
Actually, there were 46 teams over the past 7 eyars that were #12 seeds or hight and either won or lost by 5 or less.
Out of these 46 teams, only 18 of them had no tourney experience in the previous 4 years. 28 of them did.
Out of those 28 , only 9 of themhad won a tourney game in the past 4 years.
So the Cinderellas have tourney experience, but may not have actually won a game in the recent past. Sometimes the teams are rising - their seed has gone up and up each year until their breakthrough (seeVermont, 05 and Holy Cross, 03 and Utah St, 01). Sometimes it is just their second year to the tourney after a bad debut last year or the year before (Montana, 06; Wisc-Mil, 03; Manhattan, 04).
But sometimes it is a semi-established team that has had higher seeds in the past but is having a down year - like Xavier, 06; Tulsa, 03; Missouri, 02; Creighton, 02).
Any teams this year fit these molds?
Well, the first one that clearly stands out is Winthrop. Their seed will improve form a 14 in 05 and a 15 in 06 to something like a 11/12 this year. Second-year teams that could make an impact are Oral Roberts (16 in 06), Davidson(15 in 06), SOuth Alabama (14 in 06).
An established team in a down year with a high seed could be Illinois (a 12 possibly this year) or a mystery team from a high-mid, like the WAC, A-10, or C-USA (Temple? UAB? Hawaii?)
Just things to think about....
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